SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic, will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a large area. ...Red River to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across from the Ohio Valley to the Red River at the beginning of the period as a broad low-level jet interacts with a frontal zone. Some of this activity could be severe at the beginning of the period, especially near the Red River, where steeper lapse rates and stronger isentropic ascent is forecast. If this activity near the Red River can maintain along the instability gradient, it could materialize into an increasing severe threat into Arkansas perhaps as early as mid-morning. However, given the strength of the low-level jet, expect substantial precipitation in the morning across Arkansas which could limit eastward continuation of the early threat. However, regardless of how the morning activity evolves, there will likely be a corridor from the ArkLaTex to near Memphis where strong instability and strong shear will be present south of any ongoing thunderstorm activity. Maintenance of a low-level jet through the day should provide ample ascent for thunderstorm development. However, rising heights ahead of the deepening western CONUS trough do cast some doubt on convective coverage. In addition, a more robust cold pool could limit longevity of any storms within this better environment before moving into the rain-cooled air. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO MUCH OF THE MID-MS VALLEY AND THE MID-ATLANTIC.... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid Mississippi Valley to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic, will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a large area. ...Red River to the Mid-Mississippi Valley... Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across from the Ohio Valley to the Red River at the beginning of the period as a broad low-level jet interacts with a frontal zone. Some of this activity could be severe at the beginning of the period, especially near the Red River, where steeper lapse rates and stronger isentropic ascent is forecast. If this activity near the Red River can maintain along the instability gradient, it could materialize into an increasing severe threat into Arkansas perhaps as early as mid-morning. However, given the strength of the low-level jet, expect substantial precipitation in the morning across Arkansas which could limit eastward continuation of the early threat. However, regardless of how the morning activity evolves, there will likely be a corridor from the ArkLaTex to near Memphis where strong instability and strong shear will be present south of any ongoing thunderstorm activity. Maintenance of a low-level jet through the day should provide ample ascent for thunderstorm development. However, rising heights ahead of the deepening western CONUS trough do cast some doubt on convective coverage. In addition, a more robust cold pool could limit longevity of any storms within this better environment before moving into the rain-cooled air. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night across the southern Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and North Texas into the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will accelerate northeastward from the central Plains to the Great Lakes on Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary shortwave impulse will support a deep (~990mb) surface low moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will rapidly move north through the morning which will allow for a broad warm sector featuring 60s F dewpoints to expand as far north as eastern Iowa to north-central Ohio/southern Michigan by Wednesday afternoon/evening. A cold front attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at daybreak. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley... Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from northeast Texas to the Upper Midwest at the beginning of the period. East of this activity, a warm front will surge rapidly north across Illinois and Indiana with mid 60s dewpoints expected across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio Valley by mid-day. As temperatures warm into the upper 70s to low 80s, moderate to strong instability will develop by early afternoon. A cap, centered around 700mb, should keep deeper convection suppressed for much of the day. However, as height falls overspread the warm sector after 21Z and ascent increases in the right entrance region of the upper-level jet, this cap will erode. Simultaneously, even richer low-level theta-e, with upper 60s dewpoints and mean mixing ratio in excess of 14 g/kg will advect into the mid-Mississippi valley. This will provide an environment for explosive supercell development given 45-55 knots of effective shear. In addition, low-level shear will support the threat for tornadoes. A broad, strong low-level jet will be present across the warm sector for the entire day. However, there will be some relative weakening during the 18-22Z period. This may limit the tornado threat initially, but by 00Z, most guidance shows a renewed low-level jet strengthening and elongating of the hodographs. Therefore, the primary threat could be hail for a few hours during the evening before the tornado threat increases by 23Z-00Z and persists into the evening hours. Orientation of the storms and potential for training do provide some uncertainty, but in the moist environment, expect multiple mature supercells to persist into the evening when very strong low-level shear develops. Multiple strong to potentially intense tornadoes are possible during this period. ...North Texas to the ArkLaTex... Late Wednesday night (after 06Z Thu), initially elevated supercells will likely develop along and north of the front across northwest Texas. Hail will be the primary threat initially, but some damaging wind threat will also exist from these elevated storms. As they move east, and the front starts to move northward, these storms may eventually become surface-based early Thursday morning along the Red River from north-central Texas to the ArkLaTex. ...Upper Midwest to Upper Great Lakes... A conditional, potentially potent, severe weather threat could materialize across northern Illinois and into southern Michigan on Wednesday. This area, closer to the surface low and beneath the very strong mid-level jet streak, will have a wind profile favorable for all severe weather hazards. However, destabilization will depend heavily on the overnight convection Tuesday night from the central Plains into Missouri. If morning convection can clear, and especially if even broken clouds can permit some heating across some of the region, a greater tornado threat is possible across parts of northern Illinois. ..Bentley.. 04/01/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1219 PM CDT TUE APR 01 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the central and southern Plains this evening and overnight... * LOCATIONS... Central to northeast Oklahoma Central to eastern Kansas Western Missouri * HAZARDS... A few intense tornadoes Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas, with the strong tornado risk persisting into the overnight. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. Preparedness actions... Tornadoes at night can be particularly dangerous because they are usually fast-moving and difficult to see. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes made. A well-mixed boundary layer should develop this afternoon despite the presence of some high cirrus clouds. Daytime minimum RH values of 10-20% are expected to coincide with 25-35 mph west-southwesterly sustained winds over southeast Arizona into much of New Mexico, the southern High Plains and into the Big Bend area this afternoon, in agreement with the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri/Williams.. 04/01/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Apr 1 17:00:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...OK-TX... Visible-satellite imagery shows stratus and moisture streaming northward through TX into OK on strengthening southerly low-level flow. Increasingly rich moisture around 850 mb layer will mix downward beneath an initially strong capping inversion sampled on 12 UTC area observed soundings. Heating of an increasingly moist and destabilizing boundary layer will result in a very unstable airmass late this afternoon into the early evening. Models show lower 60s dewpoints reaching I-40 by early evening. Very strong and favorable wind profiles for supercells will support rapid supercell development if storms initiate (22-01 UTC). Models differ on the diurnal storm coverage casting considerable uncertainty---but some guidance has trended towards at least one to a few dryline discrete supercells across the southern Great Plains. Very large hail and tornadoes would be the primary hazards. Enlarged and elongated hodographs would support the potential for strong tornadoes provided a sustained supercell develops late this afternoon/evening. Later tonight, models show richer moisture with a very unstable airmass being maintained. Of particular note is forcing for ascent perturbing the airmass from north-central TX into OK near and ahead of the front. A nocturnal risk for renewed supercell development capable of all hazards would be strongly favored with any activity not undercut by the front---mainly during the 08-12 UTC period. ...Central Plains into Missouri... Not much change in thinking from the prior forecast. The cap is forecast to erode on the northern periphery of more appreciable moisture over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Smith/Moore.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Rapid, intense thunderstorm development should occur this evening over parts of the central/southern Plains. A few supercells with a risk for very large hail and strong tornadoes appear possible, particularly across north-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas. A line of thunderstorms should also develop and pose a threat for severe/damaging winds across eastern Kansas into western Missouri tonight. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing over the western CONUS will undergo amplification today as multiple embedded mid-level shortwave troughs move east-northeastward across the Southwest and into the central/northern Plains. A pronounced southwesterly mid-level jet will also overspread the southern/central Plains this evening and overnight. Low-level moisture centered around 850 mb has been streaming northward this morning across TX in association with a strong southerly low-level jet. Surface dewpoints have also been increasing across the Rio Grande Valley into south-central TX. This trend is expected to continue through the day, as a surface low deepens as it develops from eastern CO into western KS through the afternoon. This low is forecast to further develop/reform across southwest KS into northwest OK as ascent associated with the mid-level jet overspreads the High Plains. A dryline will extend southward from this low across western OK into northwest TX. A cold front is expected to sweep east-southeastward over much of the central Plains and southern High Plains overnight, as the surface low develops northeastward towards eastern NE/western IA by early Wednesday morning. ...Central Plains into Missouri... It appears likely that the cap will erode over the central High Plains by late afternoon or early evening. At least isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop near the triple point in the south-central KS/north-central OK vicinity, and subsequently spread quickly northeastward. Moderate to locally strong instability, coupled with 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear, will easily support supercells, with an associated threat for very large hail (up to 2-3 inches in diameter). As the southerly low-level jet markedly increases this evening, hodographs will enlarge and become elongated, with ample effective SRH to support tornadoes with any sustained supercells. Given the strength of the low-level flow expected (50-60+ kt southerly jet at 850 mb) and degree of low-level shear forecast, strong tornadoes appear possible. A line of convection should also erupt along the cold front in north-central to northeast KS tonight, and spread eastward into parts of western MO through early Wednesday morning. Even with the time of night, the overall environment appears quite favorable for severe/damaging winds, including the potential for isolated 75+ mph gusts. The Enhanced Risk has been expanded east-northeastward some across eastern KS into western MO to account for this scenario. ...Southern Plains... There is somewhat less confidence in convective initiation farther south into central/southern OK and western north TX late this afternoon and early evening. While low-level moisture will be greater across this area compared to locations farther north, with related stronger instability, large-scale ascent is forecast to be a bit weaker/delayed. Even so, a very favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment will exist across this region, with MLCAPE ranging generally 2000-3000 J/kg by late afternoon, and 50+ kt of effective bulk shear present. Any supercell that initiates along the dryline, and which can be sustained into the early evening, would pose a risk for both very large hail and a strong tornado. While overall thunderstorm coverage may be more isolated with southward extent in OK, have opted to expand the Enhanced Risk southwestward along the I-44/I-35 corridors to account for an intense supercell or two which could form. Another round of severe convection may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning as the cold front surges east-southeastward. Severe/damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity if it forms. But, given the strong low-level shear and ample MUCAPE forecast, tornadoes and perhaps large hail will also be a concern with any embedded supercells. ...Central Valley of California... With cold air aloft associated with the upper trough over the western CONUS, weak instability could develop by peak afternoon heating to support isolated strong thunderstorms. These could pose a risk for small hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado or two across portions of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 04/01/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow and deep moisture south of a quasi stationary frontal zone will persist over much of the central and eastern CONUS through the first half of the extended forecast period. Models are in generally good agreement with the progression of the pattern and the potential for severe storms. However, some key differences, and days of preceding convection will modulate potential in the coming days. ...Day4/Friday... The broad upper trough over the western US is forecast to gradually deepen Friday into the weekend, as an upper low forms over northern Mexico. Flow aloft will become increasingly southerly over the southern Plains while it curves anticyclonically over the Mid South and eastern US. A rich pool of deep moisture will continue to reside along a quasi stationary frontal zone from the Red River to the OH Valley. Several clusters of strong to severe storms appear possible within the broadly favorable zone of weak ascent and large buoyancy/shear. The surface picture remains very complicated due to multiple preceding days of convective potential. ...Day5/Saturday... The primary mid-level impulse will begin to eject across northern Mexico, eventually reaching the lower/middle MS Valley D5/Saturday. Model differences begin to emerge on the latitudinal extent of the warm sector owing to differences in the timing/structure of the ejecting upper cyclone. Regardless, continued southerly low-level flow will replenish deep moisture over much of the ArkLaTex and Southeastern US. A surface low and cold front will gradually intensify across the Mid South, likely focusing severe potential ahead of it. The intensity of the severe risk will likely be tied to ongoing storms from the prior Day 4, but supercells are possible from east TX into the MS Valley and parts of the Southeast into Saturday night. ...Day6-8... The cold front and low will continue to move eastward with the upper trough through the end of the weekend and into early next week. Some severe risk could emerge over parts of the Southeast/eastern US with seasonably high moisture and instability. However, model differences on the frontal timing and the potential for multiple rounds of proceeding convection make severe potential very uncertain beyond Day 5. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe storms is expected along a frontal zone from the ArkLaTex, Mid MS Valley to the OH/TN Valleys and the Mid Atlantic. Damaging gusts and hail are the primary risks, though a few tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... An elongated frontal zone, stretching from the Red River, to the Mid MS and OH Valleys and into the Mid Atlantic will serve as the primary focus for severe storms Thursday and Thursday night. Broad troughing and strong flow will support the potential for fairly wide coverage of strong to severe storms over a broad area. ...Red River to the Mid MS Valley... Along and south of the front, a rich low-level air mass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F) will be in place with ample buoyancy. Strong shear will overspread a large area from eastern TX, across southern AR and into the Mid MS Valley much of the day. Mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep and capping is weak, with most guidance showing a broad area of potential convective coverage from continuous warm air advection through much of the period. Thus, it seems likely that several clusters of storms, possibly supercells, will likely develop near the front and gradually spread east northeast through the afternoon and evening hours. Deep-layer winds are strong indicating potential for hail, along with damaging gusts given the potential for numerous storm interactions. The risk for tornadoes is less clear, but given supercell wind profiles and fairly sizable low-level hodographs, some threat will likely exist. An additional severe risk is possible late Thursday into early Friday as the upper-level pattern amplifies. Strongly meridional flow will overspread the stalled front supporting a broad warm air advection regime across the southern Plains. Ample elevated buoyancy is expected overnight with a risk for hail and isolated damaging winds across central and north TX into southeastern OK. ...OH/TN Valleys into the Mid Atlantic... As the front sags southward and eventually stalls, strong mid-level flow will gradually align with the frontal zone across the OH Valley into the Mid Atlantic. While there remains considerable uncertainty on the presence of convection along and north of the front, plentiful moisture is likely to reside along and south of it. Several embedded mid-level perturbations may provide enough ascent for additional convective development through the day. Several clusters of strong to severe storms are possible along the front with a risk primarily for damaging winds, given the relatively poor mid-level lapse rates and veered low-level flow. The northern and eastward extent of the severe risk is low confidence, owing to model differences regarding the location and convective coverage along the stalled front. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period, while weak lee troughing persists over the central High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico and parts of the Southern High Plains... Diurnally driven boundary-layer heating/mixing beneath a stream of mid/high-level clouds will contribute to 15-20 percent RH during the afternoon. While the pressure gradient will be modest, downward momentum transfer within the well-mixed boundary layer will support around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). As a result, critical conditions are expected across southern NM into parts of the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A belt of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period, while weak lee troughing persists over the central High Plains. ...Southern New Mexico and parts of the Southern High Plains... Diurnally driven boundary-layer heating/mixing beneath a stream of mid/high-level clouds will contribute to 15-20 percent RH during the afternoon. While the pressure gradient will be modest, downward momentum transfer within the well-mixed boundary layer will support around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts). As a result, critical conditions are expected across southern NM into parts of the southern High Plains. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the West, an 80-kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern High Plains during the afternoon. In response, a lee cyclone will deepen to around 986 mb over the central High Plains, while a southward-extending dryline sharpens over the southern High Plains. ...Far Southeast Arizona into New Mexico and the Southern High Plains... West of the dryline, strong downslope flow and diurnal heating/mixing (beneath high-level clouds overspreading the area) will favor an expansive area of 10-15 percent RH. Additionally, an axis of upper 80s/lower 90s surface temperatures will extend northeastward from the Trans-Pecos into Northwest TX. At the same time, a tightening pressure gradient peripheral to the deepening surface cyclone, and mixing into the strong flow aloft, will contribute to 25-35 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 50 mph). These conditions will result in an expansive area of high-end critical to localized extremely critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 04/01/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE OH/MID MS VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe storms are likely Wednesday and Wednesday night across the Lower Great Lakes, Mid Mississippi Valley, and the ArkLaTex. Severe wind gusts, very large hail, and strong tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough and powerful 100+ kt jet streak will move northeastward across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions Wednesday. Strong ascent from the advancing upper trough and primary shortwave impulse will support a deep surface low moving from the northern Plains into the western Great Lakes. A warm front will rapidly lift north through the morning and early afternoon across parts of eastern IA, MO, IL and IN. 60s F surface dewpoints appear likely to reach southern lower MI by the afternoon. A cold front attendant to the deep surface cyclone will sweep eastward, with widespread strong to severe storms expected to be ongoing along/ahead of the front at daybreak. ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes... The presence of early morning storms and strong low-level warm advection substantially complicates the forecast convective evolution across the Great lakes and Midwest. Model guidance varies, but some solutions show these storms may re-intensify with the diurnal cycle posing a significant wind/tornado risk, given the very strong effective shear present. Other guidance suggests this initial activity could outrun the better buoyancy with eastward extent, potentially limiting the northward extent of return moisture and subsequent destabilization. Regardless, very strong synoptic ascent and low/deep-layer shear will support a threat of damaging winds and tornadoes if surface-based storms can be sustained into the Great Lakes and Midwest region during the afternoon and evening. Higher severe probabilities for damaging winds and possibly tornadoes may be needed in futures outlooks, as confidence in the warm frontal position and convective evolution are further resolved. ...Ozarks and the Mid MS Valley... Farther south, multiple embedded perturbations will overspread parts of the Midwest and mid MS and lower OH valleys as the trough and jet shift eastward Wednesday and Wednesday night. While displaced south of the primary ascent, moderate height falls will take place across the western half of a very broad warm sector. A few storms may be ongoing along the slow moving Pacific front/dryline across eastern OK and western AR/MO early. Re-intensification of this convection is possible by mid to late morning as the boundary-layer begins to warm and destabilize. Elongated hodographs, though with somewhat veered low-level flow, suggest a risk for large hail and a few tornadoes is likely. Some upscale growth is also possible with a mixed mode and numerous storm interactions along and near the front. Additional development appears likely along a per-frontal confluence axis, or within the broader warm sector across the western Mid MS Valley and lower OH valley by mid afternoon. Strong, but somewhat meridonal shear profiles may support a mixed mode of supercells and clusters as storms develop within a very favorable parameter space for significant severe weather (STP 3+). Hodographs will remain large through much of the afternoon and into the evening with ESRH of 300-400 m2/s2. This suggests any longer-lived supercells will pose a risk for strong tornadoes, in addition to very large hail and damaging winds. ...Red River and the ArkLaTex... Along the southern extent of the dryline/Pacific front, subtle height falls may support only isolated storm development. Still a couple storms appear likely by early to mid afternoon across parts of northeast TX, southern AR and northern LA. Strong mid-level flow, robust moisture (dewpoints near 70 F), and large hodographs will likely support supercells with all hazards. These storms should persist into parts of the mid and lower MS valley overnight with a continued severe risk. Later in the evening, a secondary low-level jet surge will begin across north TX and the Red River vicinity. Warm advection storms are likely to develop after 06z as the stalling cold front begins to lift back north into OK/TX as a warm front. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong vertical shear will favor elevated supercells/clusters with an attended risk for large hail and isolated damaging gusts overnight. ..Lyons.. 04/01/2025 Read more