WW 711 TORNADO LA TX 182055Z - 190200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. A few of the stronger storms will evolve into supercells and pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Natchitoches LA to 90 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will generally be minimal across much of the country through the extended period, though regional concerns may emerge across portions of the Plains mid-week. An active upper-level regime will persist through the remainder of the week, characterized by the amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest in the wake of today's trough ejection into the Plains. This regime will maintain an unseasonably strong (1000-1005 mb) surface low across the broader Midwest/Great Lakes region, which will support several days of windy conditions across the Plains, Midwest, and the OH River Valley regions. Despite the windy conditions, widespread rainfall will eliminate fuel concerns for most locations with the exception of western NE/SD where the probability of wetting rainfall through mid-week is low. Elsewhere, upper ridging over the Four Corners and northern Rockies will help maintain rain chances along the West coast, and dry, but relatively calm, conditions across the Southwest and southern Plains through next weekend. ...D3/Wed - Western SD/NE... Breezy gradient winds are expected again on D3/Wednesday across much of the Plains. While the strongest winds are expected to reside across the central Dakotas into the lower MO River Valley, portions of western SD/NE will likely see 15-20 mph winds. Relative humidity values are expected to remain somewhat marginal (generally in the 25-35% range) due to cool temperatures, but may fall to near 20% for some locations. Additionally, recent reports suggest fine fuels are sufficiently dry to support fire spread. While critical conditions are possible, the general expectation is for areas of elevated wind/RH conditions during peak heating hours. Areas further north and east where winds will be strongest should see limited fire concerns given recent and/or anticipated precipitation over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS AND LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast into this evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and the central Plains this evening. ...20z Update... Across portions of eastern TX and western LA, scattered cloud breaks and low-level warm advection are supporting destabilization along and ahead of the main frontal precipitation band. As the front continues east, updrafts along the front should strengthen, with gradual storm development in the form of a QLCS. Ahead of the front, the latest forecast guidance also shows a couple of more discrete updrafts may eventually mature as temperatures warm. With strong deep-layer shear in place, storm organization into supercells capable of damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes is possible. Across portions of northeast LA and southern MS, buoyancy remains fairly limited. However, as the front/QLCS approaches, a few stronger updrafts may persist. Given the strong low-level shear, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible into this evening, though the magnitude and coverage of the threat remain unclear. ...Central Plains and MO Valley... Widespread cloud cover and precipitation have been slow to erode ahead of the mid-level dryslot associated with the advancing mid-level trough. While buoyancy is expected to remain very weak (~300-500 J/kg of low-level MUCAPE), recent radar and satellite imagery show low-topped convective bands have emerged in a narrow area of cloud-breaks over south-central KS. Weak heating and dynamic cooling beneath the upper trough could support enough buoyancy for low-topped thunderstorms capable of isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado through the remainder of this afternoon. ..Lyons.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop on Wednesday across parts of the Carolinas, posing a risk for severe wind gusts. ...Carolinas... A large mid-level trough will advance east and start to overspread the Appalachians on Wednesday. Lee troughing will sharpen the surface cold front as it moves across the Carolinas. Dewpoints are expected to be in the mid 60s ahead of this front as far north as southern/central North Carolina which, when combined with some weak surface heating, should result in modest destabilization. Mid-level flow will strengthen to around 50 knots by 00Z which will lead to strong shear and the potential for a few organized storms along the front during the afternoon. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat given the veered low-level flow and only modest instability. ...Pacific Northwest Coast... A few strong storms are possible early Wednesday across the Pacific Northwest coast as cold air overspreads relatively warm ocean waters. The greatest instability will be during the morning to early afternoon when some stronger storms could have gusty winds along the coast. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z An Elevated risk area has been introduced to portions of western to central SD/NE. Westerly gradient winds are expected to increase to 15-25 mph (gusting between 25-40 mph) by late afternoon as the surface low over the southern Plains migrates into the upper MS River Valley. While RH values will remain somewhat marginal (generally between 25-35%), fuel reports from local NWS offices and land agencies suggest fine fuels may support fire spread. Hence, a wind-driven Elevated risk area has been added to highlight the best overlap of dry fuels and strong winds. Forecast details regarding the southern CA coast remain on track as outlined in the discussion below. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... A surface high pressure system will be most intense on Tuesday morning within the southern Great Basin. An increase in offshore winds in southern California can be expected during the morning into perhaps the early afternoon. The pressure gradient is expected to weaken through the day and upper-level winds will not be overly favorable as well. RH of 15-20% does appear probable, at least in the immediate lee of the terrain. With the strongest winds being somewhat offset from the lowest RH, the overall fire weather threat should be somewhat brief. Elevated fire weather is expected to occur, particularly within the terrain-favored areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Nov 18 17:31:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible across parts of the central Gulf states on Tuesday. ...Central Gulf Coast... The potent mid-level trough moving across the central Plains and Midwest on D1/Monday will move into the Great Lakes and weaken on D2/Tuesday. A slow advancing cold front will be left in its wake from the southern Great Lakes to the central Gulf Coast. An anomalously moist airmass will be in place with all time daily maximum PWAT values likely from Slidell, LA to Wilmington, OH with likely top 5 monthly all time maximum values. As a result, extensive cloudcover and precipitation is expected across the warm sector which will limit instability. In addition, forcing will be weakening through the day. The combination of the meager instability and lack of forcing will limit severe weather potential except for where upper 60s dewpoints are forecast, which should support at least some instability and damaging wind threat. The best potential for severe weather will be across far southeast LA, far southern MS/AL, and the FL Panhandle, where low 70s dewpoints will support around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE. Ahead of the front, significant low-level wind shear will be present with 40 knots of flow at 1km and low-level veering winds. Therefore, some damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado will be possible with any stronger storms which can develop in this region during the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Cellular convection is possible along the Pacific Northwest coast after 06Z Wed as temperatures cool aloft and 200-400 J/kg MLCAPE develops along the coast. Any of these storms could have some gusty winds associated with them given around 40 knots of synoptic flow around 500 meters above the surface. ..Bentley.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds is forecast this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a negatively tilted mid-level trough over the southern High Plains rapidly moving northeast, and this feature will reach the Upper Midwest by early Tuesday morning. The southern portion of an ongoing convective line may continue to weaken across eastern/northeastern TX through the early afternoon. Models continue to suggest a risk for pre-squall line updrafts developing in the warm sector this afternoon from east TX into LA where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating. Mid-level lapse rates will remain poor and the stronger forcing for ascent will gradually become displaced by late afternoon across this region. However, strong flow fields will support a risk for supercells with the stronger updrafts that develop. Uncertainty remains regarding the overall coverage (isolated) of potential supercells and their associated severe risk. Have left this portion of the outlook area unchanged. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Morning surface analysis places a low over northwest OK with the zone of strongest pressure falls extending northeast into northeast KS where the low is forecast to track later today. A mid-level dryslot over the southern Great Plains will continue to shift northeastward into KS this afternoon and aid in some weak surface-based destabilization. In wake of morning showers/thunderstorms over KS, it remains possible sufficient weak destabilization occurs by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the low from central KS and quickly spreading northeastward into the MO Valley. Confidence is reserved regarding overall coverage of robust storm development due in part to extensive low cloud cover inhibiting destabilization, but it seems possible a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and yield an isolated risk for gusty winds and perhaps a tornado. ..Smith/Thornton.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0946 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no changes needed. Latest guidance continues to show increasing winds through the higher terrain of the southern CA coast after 03 UTC, but the probability of maintaining elevated wind/RH thresholds through the end of the period remains limited. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 11/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1254 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... While fire weather concerns will generally be minimal today, there will be some potential for locally elevated conditions along the Santa Barbara Coast. The upper-level trough will progress along the California coast before shifting eastward. At least for some portion of the day this will place stronger mid-level winds with some component across the western Transverse Ranges. Coupled with low-level surface ridging north of the terrain, downslope winds will increase during part of the afternoon. RH reductions to sufficiently dry levels are the primary uncertainty. Values near 20-25% appear possible at least briefly in the lee of the terrain. Elsewhere in southern California, offshore winds will intensify towards Tuesday morning, though RH will remain too high for any appreciable fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0710 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W MWL TO 15 N OKC AND 40 ESE SPS TO 25 NE OKC. ..KERR..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC019-027-049-083-085-087-099-109-181440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARTER CLEVELAND GARVIN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 710 TORNADO OK TX 180800Z - 181600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 710 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Monday morning from 200 AM until 1000 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeastward this morning across western north Texas into southwest and central Oklahoma. Scattered severe/damaging winds up to 60-75 mph will be a threat with this line, along with a few embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles west northwest of Oklahoma City OK to 20 miles south of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 709... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms may continue to produce occasional strong to severe gusts and perhaps a couple brief tornadoes across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma this morning. A threat for a few tornadoes and damaging winds will also exist this afternoon and evening from parts of east Texas into Louisiana and vicinity. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough over the southern High Plains this morning will eject northeastward across the central Plains and mid MO Valley through this evening. Attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will likewise overspread OK/KS into western MO by late afternoon, while a strong (50-60+ kt) southerly low-level jet aids in northward moisture transport across parts of the southern/central Plains and lower/mid MS Valley. At the surface, a deep low over western OK will develop northeastward through the day in tandem with the ejecting shortwave trough, eventually reaching the Upper Midwest late tonight. A related cold front will sweep quickly eastward across the southern/central Plains and into the mid MS Valley through the period, before decelerating over the lower MS Valley late tonight into early Tuesday morning. ...Southern Plains... With low-level winds remaining very strong per area VWPs (up to 50-60 kt at 1 km AGL), an ongoing QLCS across central/southern OK into north-central TX may continue to pose a risk for occasional strong to severe winds in the short term this morning as it moves east-northeastward. Ample low-level shear will also support a continued threat for embedded circulations and a couple brief QLCS tornadoes this morning. This line is expected to outpace better low-level moisture return and already weak instability in the next couple of hours (see very weak surface-based instability in 12Z soundings from OUN/FWD). Accordingly, nearly all guidance shows gradual weakening of the line over the next several hours as it moves into eastern OK and northeast TX. Still, at least an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could persist, even as the thermodynamic environment becomes increasingly marginal with eastward extent. ...East Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley... The southern portion of the squall line along/ahead of the cold front should tend to remain weak through early afternoon, before potentially restrengthening by mid/late afternoon into the early evening. This should occur as the line/cold front encounters a more buoyant airmass across parts of east TX into LA and southern AR, where MLCAPE may reach up to 500-1000 J/kg with daytime heating, even though mid-level lapse rates will remain poor. This region will remain displaced well south of better forcing associated with the ejecting shortwave trough. Even so, strengthening mid-level southwesterly flow through the day will support 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear and some threat for supercells ahead of the front. Sufficient southerly low-level winds will also support adequate 0-1 km shear and a threat for a few tornadoes. Most high-resolution guidance shows either the line restrengthening and/or supercells developing ahead of it by late afternoon. Have therefore included a Slight Risk from parts of east TX into LA and vicinity to account for this potential. ...Central Plains/Ozarks into the Mid Missouri Valley... Later today, a secondary area of thunderstorms may form closer to the surface low and behind the initial QLCS from north-central OK into central/eastern KS and eventually the mid MO Valley. This convection may develop in a modestly steep mid-level lapse rate environment amid more unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow near the exit region of the mid-level jet. Even though instability will remain weak, a couple of strong to severe thunderstorms may pose an isolated risk for gusty winds, a tornado, and perhaps marginally severe hail. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk northward some to include parts of the mid MO Valley. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/18/2024 Read more

MD 2231 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 710... FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...parts of northwestern Texas and southwest into central Oklahoma Concerning...Tornado Watch 710... Valid 181009Z - 181215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 710 continues. SUMMARY...A narrow squall line may continue to pose a risk for localized damaging wind gusts and isolated brief tornadoes while approaching the I-35 corridor, including the Oklahoma City metro, through 6-8 AM CST. DISCUSSION...A narrow, strongly forced squall line, with embedded meso-gamma scale cyclonic circulations continues propagating north-northeastward into/across the Red River Valley vicinity. Downstream of mid-level troughing taking on a more negative tilt into and through the Texas South Plains, models indicate that this may be maintained at least into the 12-14Z time frame. Although boundary-layer instability remains limited across southwest Oklahoma into the I-35 corridor of central Oklahoma, stronger surface pressure falls in advance of the deepening surface cyclone may allow for sufficient boundary-layer warming and moistening to maintain a risk for damaging wind gusts and additional brief tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 11/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35549918 35769737 33589767 32939957 34769884 35549918 Read more

WW 0710 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S ABI TO 30 SW FSI TO 30 NNW FSI TO 45 ENE CSM. ..KERR..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 710 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-067-085-087-099-109-137- 181240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON LOVE MCCLAIN MURRAY OKLAHOMA STEPHENS TXC009-023-059-077-133-237-337-363-417-429-447-485-503-181240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CALLAHAN CLAY EASTLAND JACK MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON WICHITA YOUNG Read more