WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE POF TO 45 NNE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-043-077-143-170340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FLOYD JEFFERSON SCOTT KYC029-031-035-047-061-075-083-085-093-105-111-141-143-157-163- 177-185-213-219-221-223-227-170340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BULLITT BUTLER CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN EDMONSON FULTON GRAVES GRAYSON HARDIN HICKMAN JEFFERSON LOGAN LYON MARSHALL MEADE MUHLENBERG OLDHAM SIMPSON TODD TRIGG TRIMBLE WARREN Read more

WW 0265 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE POF TO 45 NNE BWG. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...IND...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 265 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-043-077-143-170340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK FLOYD JEFFERSON SCOTT KYC029-031-035-047-061-075-083-085-093-105-111-141-143-157-163- 177-185-213-219-221-223-227-170340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BULLITT BUTLER CALLOWAY CHRISTIAN EDMONSON FULTON GRAVES GRAYSON HARDIN HICKMAN JEFFERSON LOGAN LYON MARSHALL MEADE MUHLENBERG OLDHAM SIMPSON TODD TRIGG TRIMBLE WARREN Read more

WW 265 TORNADO IL IN KY MO 162000Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 265 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 300 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Southern Illinois Central and Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 300 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 80 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercells ongoing across eastern MO and western IL are expected to continue eastward into the destabilizing airmass downstream across the region. All severe hazards, including very large hail up to 2.5" to 3" in diameter and strong to intense tornadoes, are possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northwest of Indianapolis IN to 40 miles south of Paducah KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 261...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24040. ...Mosier Read more

WW 0269 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW SDF TO 20 WNW LUK TO 40 ESE FWA. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 269 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC115-155-170340- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE OHIO SWITZERLAND KYC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-037-041-043- 045-049-051-053-057-063-065-067-069-071-073-077-079-081-087-089- 095-097-099-103-109-113-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-131-133- 135-137-147-151-153-155-159-161-165-167-169-171-173-175-179-181- 187-189-191-193-195-197-199-201-203-205-207-209-211-215-217-229- 231-235-237-239-170340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN ANDERSON BARREN BATH BELL BOONE BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER CASEY CLARK CLAY CLINTON CUMBERLAND ELLIOTT Read more

WW 0270 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 270 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RKR TO 30 ESE RUE TO 15 ESE BVX TO 15 NNW ARG. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 270 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-035-037-045-051-055-067-075-077-085-093-095-097-105- 111-113-117-119-123-125-145-147-170340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS FAULKNER GARLAND GREENE JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE LONOKE MISSISSIPPI MONROE MONTGOMERY PERRY POINSETT POLK PRAIRIE PULASKI ST. FRANCIS SALINE WHITE WOODRUFF MSC003-009-033-093-117-137-139-141-143-170340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON DESOTO MARSHALL PRENTISS TATE TIPPAH TISHOMINGO TUNICA Read more

WW 0271 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 271 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 271 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC001-003-007-009-011-013-015-021-025-027-031-035-037-041-043- 049-051-055-057-061-063-065-067-073-081-083-085-087-089-093-099- 101-103-105-107-111-115-117-119-121-123-125-127-129-133-135-137- 139-141-143-145-147-149-151-153-155-159-161-165-169-173-175-177- 181-185-187-189-170340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BEDFORD BLEDSOE BLOUNT BRADLEY CAMPBELL CANNON CHEATHAM CLAIBORNE CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DAVIDSON DE KALB DICKSON FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRAINGER GRUNDY HAMBLEN HAMILTON HANCOCK HAWKINS HICKMAN HOUSTON HUMPHREYS JACKSON JEFFERSON KNOX LAWRENCE LEWIS LINCOLN LOUDON MCMINN MACON MARION MARSHALL MAURY MEIGS MONROE MONTGOMERY MOORE MORGAN OVERTON PERRY PICKETT POLK PUTNAM RHEA ROANE Read more

WW 0272 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 272 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 272 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OHC005-013-019-029-031-033-059-067-075-081-083-099-103-111-117- 119-121-133-139-151-153-155-157-169-170340- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA COSHOCTON CRAWFORD GUERNSEY HARRISON HOLMES JEFFERSON KNOX MAHONING MEDINA MONROE MORROW MUSKINGUM NOBLE PORTAGE RICHLAND STARK SUMMIT TRUMBULL TUSCARAWAS WAYNE PAC059-125-170340- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE WASHINGTON WVC009-029-049-051-061-069-103-170340- Read more

WW 272 SEVERE TSTM OH PA WV 170155Z - 170800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 272 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 955 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Eastern Ohio Far Southwest Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia * Effective this Friday night and Saturday morning from 955 PM until 400 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread eastward this evening and overnight while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds. A tornado or two may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Akron OH to 45 miles south southwest of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 265...WW 267...WW 269...WW 270...WW 271... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0267 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 267 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W AUS TO 55 SE BWD TO 35 S SEP TO 20 NE SEP TO 20 N MWL. ..HALBERT..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 267 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-027-035-053-085-099-113-119-121-139-145-147-161-193-213- 217-221-223-231-251-257-277-281-289-293-309-331-349-367-379-395- 397-425-439-467-491-170340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BELL BOSQUE BURNET COLLIN CORYELL DALLAS DELTA DENTON ELLIS FALLS FANNIN FREESTONE HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL HOOD HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON KAUFMAN LAMAR LAMPASAS LEON LIMESTONE MCLENNAN MILAM NAVARRO PARKER RAINS ROBERTSON ROCKWALL SOMERVELL TARRANT VAN ZANDT WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 267 SEVERE TSTM TX 162200Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central into North-Central/Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Multiple supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening. They should pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail, with the largest hailstones potentially reaching up to 2.5-3.5 inches in diameter. Some threat for severe/damaging winds and perhaps a tornado may also exist through the evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles south southwest of Stephenville TX to 60 miles south of Paris TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 262...WW 263...WW 264...WW 265...WW 266... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General Area this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Southern Indiana Southern Illinois Northwest and northern middle Tennessee Southeastern Missouri Extreme northeastern Arkansas Extreme southwestern Ohio * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1141 AM CDT FRI MAY 16 2025 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Select a General Area this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Kentucky Southern Indiana Southern Illinois Northwest and northern middle Tennessee Southeastern Missouri Extreme northeastern Arkansas Extreme southwestern Ohio * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Widespread large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms is likely this afternoon into tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase into this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms will continue tonight across parts of the mid Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. This will include intense supercells with strong, potentially long-track tornadoes and very large hail. The threat for damaging winds in excess of 75 mph will increase this evening as storms grow into larger clusters. ...01z Update... Seasonally deep cyclone is shifting east across the upper MS Valley toward the upper Great Lakes region. Early-evening satellite imagery supports this with the center of the upper low currently over northern MN. Multiple short-wave troughs are rotating into/through the base of the trough, but the primary zone of noteworthy ascent is currently aiding an elongated corridor of deep convection from central Indiana, southwest across northern Arkansas into central TX, where only the southern influence of this upper trough is evident. Multiple long-lived supercells have evolved along this corridor, especially from southern Indiana into northeast Arkansas. This zone is strongly sheared, strongly buoyant, and adequately forced for the continuation of severe supercells. Environmental conditions remain favorable for intense updrafts, along with the potential for long-track tornadoes. Very large hail and severe winds are also likely with this activity. Through late evening, the primary corridor for the most concentrated severe will extend from northeast Arkansas into central Kentucky. Later tonight, some potential for upscale growth may yield a forward propagating MCS. This activity will move toward the central/southern Appalachians with an attendant severe risk, including all severe hazards. ..Darrow.. 05/17/2025 Read more

WW 0264 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE HSE TO 35 NNE ORF. WW 264 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 170300Z. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...MHX...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 264 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS AMZ231-170300- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0268 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW MIE TO 30 ENE MIE TO 40 ESE SBN. ..THORNTON..05/17/25 ATTN...WFO...LOT...IWX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 268 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-170140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN OHC125-161-170140- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE PAULDING VAN WERT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0823 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 265... FOR SOUTHEAST INDIANA...SOUTHWEST OHIO...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0823 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0551 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Indiana...Southwest Ohio...Central and Eastern Kentucky Concerning...Tornado Watch 265... Valid 162251Z - 170045Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase over southeast Indiana, southwest Ohio, southward into central and eastern Kentucky over the next few hours. Tornadoes, large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely with the more intense storms. Weather watch issuance will be needed. DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, a cluster of supercells is currently ongoing across much of the lower Ohio Valley. This cluster is being supported by a shortwave trough, and an associated 70 to 80 knot mid-level jet, that will move eastward toward the central Appalachians this evening. In response to the wave, an 850 mb jet will strengthen and move eastward across the Ohio Valley. This will provide support for continued thunderstorm development, and convective coverage is expected to increase over the next few hours. These storms will move through the eastern part of WW 265, necessitating new watch issuance to the east of the ongoing watch. Strong low-level and deep-layer shear, associated with the Ohio Valley system, will be favorable for supercells with tornadoes, large hail and wind damage. RAP forecast soundings at 03Z for Jackson, Kentucky have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This will be favorable for a few strong tornadoes. As convective coverage increases, a transition to more linear structure is expected to take place during the mid to late evening. As a result, the wind-damage threat will likely increase. The faster moving bowing line segments could produce wind gusts exceeding 75 mph. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND... LAT...LON 40138366 40258539 39988602 38988654 37428686 36758648 36648570 36648555 36638426 36868368 37528318 39388306 40138366 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0824 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0553 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Far southeast Virginia and eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264... Valid 162253Z - 170030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 264 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail will continue into the evening, before gradually dissipating and moving offshore into the Atlantic. DISCUSSION...Scattered severe thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of far southeastern Virginia into eastern North Carolina, capable of damaging straight-line winds and large hail. Recent radar scans from Wakefield, VA show 60-65 kts at 600-700 ft ARL, primarily along the leading edge of the convection. Warn on Forecast guidance also indicates this convection will persist into the evening, with some locally higher probabilities of 50+ kt winds before dissipating and moving offshore. ..Halbert.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH... LAT...LON 36007731 36197778 36247790 36327794 36427789 36537777 36807744 37057725 37167716 37267709 37337706 37317695 37167660 37037630 36717588 36297569 35967560 35797663 36007731 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0825 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 262... FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...WESTERN TENNESSEE...FAR NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0825 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Arkansas...Western Tennessee...Far Northern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 262... Valid 162323Z - 170130Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 262 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat is expected to develop over the next few hours across parts of northeast Arkansas, western Tennessee and far northern Mississippi. Weather watch issuance will likely be needed. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a northeast-to-southwest oriented line of supercells from southern Illinois into southeast Missouri and far northern Arkansas. These storms are located ahead of a cold front, along the western edge of an axis of strong instability. MLCAPE along the instability axis is estimated to be in the 3000 to 4000 J/kg range, according to the RAP. The instability and large-scale ascent, associated with a shortwave trough moving through the lower Ohio Valley, will support new convective development to the south of the ongoing activity across northeastern Arkansas over the next couple of hours. These new storms are expected to move eastward into western Tennessee later this evening. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Memphis has 0-6 km near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 350 m2/s2. This environment will support supercells and tornadoes. In addition, steep low to mid-level lapse rates are in the 7 to 8 C/km range, according to the RAP. This suggests that large hail will be likely with supercells. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense cores. Severe wind gusts, with some potentially above 75 mph, will be possible. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 34828988 34928926 35178887 35638871 36078873 36348889 36598946 36669128 36479228 35949270 35239268 34939236 34829199 34799147 34828988 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0826 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 265... FOR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FAR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0826 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CDT Fri May 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern Illinois...Southern Indiana...Western and Central Kentucky...Far Southeast Missouri Concerning...Tornado Watch 265... Valid 162356Z - 170200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 265 continues. SUMMARY...A tornado threat will continue over the next couple of hours across the lower Ohio Valley. Strong tornadoes will be likely with the intense supercells, and a long-track tornado will be possible. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a cluster of supercells across the lower Ohio Valley. Intense supercells with tornadoes, potentially strong, are ongoing in far southern Illinois, southwestern Kentucky, and southern Indiana. A 45 to 55 knot low-level jet has developed across southern Illinois, according to the RAP. This feature has increased low-level shear, which has become increasingly favorable for strong tornadoes. The WSR-88D near the Ohio River in far southern Illinois and western Kentucky have strong directional shear in the low-levels with looping hodographs. 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, suggesting that strong tornadoes will be likely with most intense supercells. A long-track tornado will also be possible over the next hour or two. Supercells will also be capable of producing hail in the 3 to 4 inch range, and damaging wind gusts above 75 mph. ..Broyles.. 05/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 36828694 36818891 36898944 37198972 37508959 38718859 39438782 39458618 39238506 38978477 38418481 37478517 36908579 36828694 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...4.00+ IN Read more

WW 0262 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW RKR TO 20 NNW RUE TO 20 N FLP TO 15 ENE UNO TO 35 SW FAM TO 15 S BLV TO 35 SSW DEC. ..THORNTON..05/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...LSX...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 262 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-023-029-049-063-065-067-075-083-089-115-121-127-129-135- 137-141-149-162340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER CLEBURNE CONWAY FULTON INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LOGAN MARION POPE RANDOLPH SCOTT SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN YELL ILC005-027-051-077-121-145-157-189-162340- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE JACKSON MARION PERRY RANDOLPH WASHINGTON Read more