SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the middle Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Middle Gulf Coast including southern AL/FL Panhandle... Severe-weather potential is expected to remain relatively limited today and largely relegated to near-coastal areas of southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. A longwave trough will remain centered across a broad part of the Midwest and Great Lakes, well to the north of a weak surface wave and a nearby narrow inland warm sector along the middle Gulf Coast. This warm/moist sector will largely focus offshore due to a lack of more appreciable cyclogenesis and persistent showers/thunderstorms inland. The southern extent of a persistent but weakening (25-40 kt) south-southwesterly low-level jet will migrate slowly eastward today across the Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado could occur with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s F surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the severe potential rather isolated and marginal overall. ..Guyer/Flournoy.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0937 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z The primary forecast adjustment involved removing portions of north-central NE/south-central SD from the Elevated risk area due to recent wetting rainfall over the past 24 hours. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track across the Plains with wind gusts up to 40 mph and falling dewpoints already being reported this morning. Forecast details regarding the Plains and the southern CA coast outlined in the previous discussion (below) remain on track. ..Moore.. 11/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... The primary upper cyclone, with multiple embedded shortwave troughs, will evolve into a closed mid/upper-level low over the northern Plains and Upper Midwest today. A deep surface low over MN this morning should continue to slowly occlude as it moves northward into Canada by this evening. A cold front extends southward from this low to the lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast states. Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across southern LA/MS/AL along and ahead of the front. Poor lapse rates noted on the observed 12Z sounding from LIX, along with cloudiness and widespread pre-frontal precipitation will generally hinder any more than weak destabilization from occurring over land through this afternoon. Even so, the southern extent of a 30-40 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to migrate slowly eastward today across the central Gulf Coast vicinity. A brief waterspout and/or tornado appears possible with low-topped rotating cells along or very near the coast given adequate 0-1 km SRH and greater low-level moisture present (generally 70s surface dewpoints). Otherwise, isolated damaging wind gusts may occur with convection moving eastward along or just ahead of the front. Meager instability should keep the overall severe threat isolated. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A relatively stable weather pattern will persist for much of the Fri/D4 through Tue/D8 period, owing to a large upper trough over the East and a ridge over the West. Low-level moisture across the CONUS will with not return with any abundance until around Mon/D7. At that time, models indicate a broad belt of west to southwest flow aloft with general troughiness across the West, and rising heights possibly over the East. Mid to upper 60s F are forecast from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, beneath increasing flow aloft which could potentially yield areas of strong storms in the warm advection regime. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a deep and large upper low will move from the upper Great Lakes toward the Mid Atlantic, with an upper ridge over the West. With high pressure over most of the CONUS and offshore flow across the Gulf of Mexico and East Coast, little if any thunderstorms are forecast due to lack of instability. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... The strong upper trough in the central Plains will move east on Wednesday. A strong belt of northwesterly mid-level winds will remain over the Plains. A new surface low will then deepen in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... A similar setup to Tuesday will again occur on Wednesday across parts of Wyoming, South Dakota, and Nebraska. Temperatures will again remain quite cool, but the remaining dry airmass coupled with a modest downslope wind component will promote 20-30% RH by the afternoon. Winds will again be the primary driver of fire weather concern with 15-25 mph sustained winds being fairly common along with stronger gusts. The fire weather threat should begin to diminish by mid/late afternoon as the surface pressure gradient weakens. ..Wendt.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CST Tue Nov 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Initially broad cyclonic flow aloft across the West and Plains will intensify into two strong troughs, one along the West Coast and one in the Plains. A deep surface low will move from the Upper Midwest into Canada with a moderately strong anticyclone in the Great Basin shifting east during the day. ...Southern California... The offshore pressure gradient is expected to maximize this morning and then weaken gradually through the day. This being the case, the strongest winds (20-30 mph, especially in the terrain) will be offset from the lowest RH during the afternoon (15-25%). Even so, a few hours of elevated fire weather appear possible, primarily within the terrain-favored regions. ...Central Plains... A strong surface pressure gradient will drive winds of 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Temperatures will remain quite cool and likely only reach the mid/upper 40s F. Even so, very dry air will still allow RH to fall to 20-25% in some areas. Despite many marginal factors, the strength of the winds may still promote some risk of fire spread in fine fuels. ..Wendt.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day. ...Carolinas... Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough swings east, with very weak instability developing. Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong storms are not expected. ...Florida... Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula, it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such, despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective. ...Ohio and Vicinity... A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday. Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely, a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures aloft. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected on Wednesday. Isolated thunderstorms are most likely over parts of Florida and the Carolinas, and along the coastal Pacific Northwest. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a deep upper trough will extend from a low over northern MN southward toward the Ozarks, and will pivot northeast across the OH Valley and Midwestern states, becoming negatively tilted. A tight midlevel temperature gradient and 130 kt speed max will relax somewhat through 00Z. Then, a secondary strong speed max will develop overnight from the mid MS Valley into the southern Appalachians. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will gradually move east toward the Rockies, with resulting northwest flow regime across the Plains. At the surface, high pressure will be entrenched from the Rockies into the central and southern Plains, and extending into the Gulf of Mexico where strong offshore flow will exist. A low will develop near Lake Erie during the day, with the cold front pushing into the Mid Atlantic to the Carolinas late in the day. ...Carolinas... Low-level moisture with 60s F dewpoints will spread north across the eastern Carolinas and into southeast VA through 00Z ahead of the cold front. Deep-layer shear will increase as the upper trough swings east, with very weak instability developing. Forecast soundings indicate poor low-level lapse rates/heating, with substantial midlevel drying. In addition, a prominent subsidence inversion is present in several model depictions. Given a lack of appreciable low-level flow fields to support wind gusts, strong storms are not expected. ...Florida... Area of thunderstorms are forecast over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early on Wednesday, with a plume of instability ahead of a cold front. While some of this activity will move across the Peninsula, it appears the boundary layer will be relatively cool. As such, despite the moderate low-level SRH during the morning along the western coasts, most of it should be rendered in-effective. ...Ohio and Vicinity... A very strong vorticity maximum will travel east across IN, OH, the upper OH Valley and into western PA and Lake Erie on Wednesday. Large-scale ascent will be strong, with rapidly cooling temperatures aloft. Shallow convection may develop with limited heating along the cold front, which will itself result in gusty winds with 30 kt ambient flow just off the surface. While severe storms are unlikely, a flash or two cannot be ruled out given such cool temperatures aloft. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... Strong cooling aloft on the north size of a midlevel temperature gradient will exist over northwest OR into western WA with a slowly weakening midlevel jet. Weak low-level CAPE will develop mainly over the water. However, some cams show low-topped storms possibly moving ashore, and wind shear will be strong. While locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out, the severe risk appears low at this time. ..Jewell.. 11/19/2024 Read more

MD 2237 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 2237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...Lower Mississippi Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190549Z - 190715Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds, and perhaps a brief tornado, are possible with convection as it progresses across the lower Mississippi Valley. DISCUSSION...Surface front continues to advance slowly east across LA into western MS late this evening. This boundary is becoming less forced with time as the primary upper trough is lifting north-northeast across western IA. Some semblance of a LLJ persists ahead of the front from southeast LA into MS, and this appears to be aiding frontal convection that is currently concentrated from western MS into southwest LA. Latest radar data suggests some organization to the squall line and a few bow-type structures are evident along the leading edge of convection. Gusty winds, and perhaps some risk for a brief tornado, can be expected with convection as it propagates east into the early morning hours. Current thinking is the severe threat may remain a bit too isolated to warrant a watch, but will continue to monitor the lower MS Valley. ..Darrow/Hart.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 30199264 32449081 32119008 30229160 30199264 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid/upper shortwave trough will continue to lift north across the Great Lakes today, while another upper trough develops east across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Any large-scale ascent associated with these features will remain displaced to the north of the Gulf coast region. Nevertheless, strong low-level shear will be in place, with around 35-40 kt south/southwesterly flow just above the surface through around 850 mb. While deep-layer flow will be mostly unidirectional, some modest veering with height through 1 km will support enlarged, curved hodographs. Despite favorable shear for organized convection, instability will be limited. Surface dewpoints will be near 70 F near the coast, with mid/upper 60s F further north across parts of southern to central MS/AL. However, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates, widespread cloudiness leading to weak daytime heating, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms. Given strength of low-level flow, even meager instability (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support a few strong wind gusts with thunderstorms progressing east across the region ahead of a cold front. A brief tornado or waterspout also is possible, mainly closer to the coast where 70s F dewpoints will be present. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms producing isolated strong wind gusts and perhaps a tornado are possible across the central Gulf Coast vicinity today. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid/upper shortwave trough will continue to lift north across the Great Lakes today, while another upper trough develops east across the central Plains to the Mid-MS Valley. Any large-scale ascent associated with these features will remain displaced to the north of the Gulf coast region. Nevertheless, strong low-level shear will be in place, with around 35-40 kt south/southwesterly flow just above the surface through around 850 mb. While deep-layer flow will be mostly unidirectional, some modest veering with height through 1 km will support enlarged, curved hodographs. Despite favorable shear for organized convection, instability will be limited. Surface dewpoints will be near 70 F near the coast, with mid/upper 60s F further north across parts of southern to central MS/AL. However, destabilization will be limited by poor lapse rates, widespread cloudiness leading to weak daytime heating, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms. Given strength of low-level flow, even meager instability (around 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) will support a few strong wind gusts with thunderstorms progressing east across the region ahead of a cold front. A brief tornado or waterspout also is possible, mainly closer to the coast where 70s F dewpoints will be present. ..Leitman/Wendt.. 11/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0635 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A risk for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds will persist into late evening or the early overnight hours across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Mid-MO Valley to Lower MS Valley... Severe probabilities have been removed from most of east TX northward into MO/KS/NE/IA based on current location of the surface cold front and ongoing convection. Any remaining convection across the Mid-MO Valley vicinity will continue to weaken with eastward extent given a dearth of instability. Further south, severe probabilities remain unchanged (other than trimming behind ongoing QLCS) across the Lower MS Valley. A risk for isolated severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes remain possible, especially over the next few hours. By late evening into the overnight hours, severe potential is expected to become lower with eastward extent across southern MS/southeast LA and southern AL as large-scale ascent is rapidly becoming further displaced from better boundary layer moisture. Strong vertical shear will persist, but surface-based parcels likely will be unable to realize the favorable SRH environment, limiting severe potential with eastward extent. ..Leitman.. 11/19/2024 Read more

MD 2236 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 711... FOR SOUTHEAST TX...CENTRAL LA
Mesoscale Discussion 2236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 Areas affected...Southeast TX...Central LA Concerning...Tornado Watch 711... Valid 190009Z - 190145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 711 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered supercells will continue spreading northeast across the eastern half of ww711. DISCUSSION...Several long-lived supercells are noted within ww711 early this evening. One in particular is crossing Newton County TX into northwestern Vernon Parish. This activity appears partly aided by the right-entrance region of the mid-level jet, along with sustained low-level warm advection. While lapse rates are not that steep, low-mid 70s surface dew points are contributing to significant buoyancy. Until the LLJ lifts north of this air mass, organized supercell threat will likely continue. Primary risk continues to be damaging winds along with some tornado risk, especially for the next few hours. ..Darrow.. 11/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 30789387 32019304 32019223 30969261 30419330 30789387 Read more

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE HOU TO 5 NE SHV. ..LYONS..11/18/24 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 711 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC011-013-031-043-049-069-079-081-085-115-127-182340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE DE SOTO GRANT JACKSON NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE VERNON WINN TXC199-241-291-351-403-405-419-457-182340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDIN JASPER LIBERTY NEWTON SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY TYLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 711 TORNADO LA TX 182055Z - 190200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 255 PM CST Mon Nov 18 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Western and Central Louisiana East and Southeast Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 255 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon into the evening. A few of the stronger storms will evolve into supercells and pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north of Natchitoches LA to 90 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Smith Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Nov 18 20:56:17 UTC 2024.

WW 0711 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0711 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more