Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

MD 2096 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 680... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680... Valid 220013Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and scattered severe gusts continues from far eastern NM Into parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis show a cold front extending from west-central OK into east-central NM, with a dryline punching northeastward across central NM. Gusty southeast winds persist across the warm sector over much of the South Plains and into southeast NM, with scattered strong to severe cells both north and south of the cold front. Around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE exists within the instability axis, as indicated on the 00Z MAF. Winds in the lowest few km are mostly unidirectional, before veering to southwesterly around 700 mb. Hodographs are therefore primarily straight line, with elongation in the mid to upper levels. While low-level shear is stronger along the cold front, much of this will remain ineffective due to the cooler air mass. However, the South Plains portion of the front is a bit more favorably oriented for storms to potentially interact for a longer duration before becoming elevated, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, hail appears to be the primary risk this evening. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32190387 32940368 33690364 34470409 34690452 35190547 35670523 35750420 35430237 35240148 34930115 34080093 33340144 32260234 31850310 31910362 32190387 Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW INK TO 20 WSW HOB TO 35 NNE HOB TO 5 ESE CAO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2096 ..JEWELL..09/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-220240- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas South Plains and Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop initially across a broad north/south part of eastern New Mexico this afternoon, as well as near the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. This includes the potential for some supercell storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Roswell NM to 55 miles southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards remain possible this evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...01z Update... Strong upper low has progressed into the Four Corners region early this evening as the primary mid-level speed max translates across southern NM. Large-scale ascent is now spreading across the southern High Plains, and scattered-numerous thunderstorms have evolved across eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. In response to the trough, LLJ should increase a bit over the next few hours, and continued clustering is expected, especially across the TX South Plains into the TX Panhandle. Additionally, several supercells persist within southeast upslope flow regime across eastern NM, south of the synoptic front. 00z sounding from MAF exhibits steep lapse rates with ample shear for supercells, though weak inhibition is noted around 2km. Large hail and damaging wind threat continues with this activity, along with some risk for tornadoes with more discrete supercells. ...Elsewhere... Southern influence of northern-stream short-wave trough is aiding multiple thunderstorm clusters across the upper Midwest. Low-level warm advection is also contributing to this activity, but thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive with mostly modest instability noted. Some risk for wind/hail will continue, especially for the next few hours. Boundary-layer cooling should contribute to weakening buoyancy across the Middle Atlantic region. Some risk for locally strong winds persist for the next 1-2hr but overall the severe risk is gradually waning. ..Darrow.. 09/22/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 21 22:25:03 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z A complicated/chaotic upper-air pattern will evolve across the United States this week. Early in the week, the upper-low across the Southwest this weekend will continue to open up and lift in/through the Plains. In its wake, an expansive ridge will take hold across the West, driving a short-wave trough southward through the Plains, by midweek. By late week, a series of short-wave troughs will move across the Pacific Northwest coincident with a closed low developing across the southern Plains. The result will be cooler/wetter pattern across southern Plains and eastern United States. Across the west, although a ridge will develop by early week, generally weak flow and unreceptive fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Thus, large-scale critical fire-weather concerns appear to be minimal this week. ..Marsh.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 212030Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas South Plains and Panhandle * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe storms are expected to develop initially across a broad north/south part of eastern New Mexico this afternoon, as well as near the New Mexico/Texas border vicinity. This includes the potential for some supercell storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Roswell NM to 55 miles southeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms capable of all hazards are possible this afternoon and evening across portions of the southern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind convection in parts of western Pennsylvania as it appears potential for severe storms will be diminished through the remainder of the afternoon. In north-central/northeast Iowa, temperatures have risen into the low 90s ahead of the cold front and near an outflow boundary in the southeast Minnesota/west-central Wisconsin. This area could see a locally higher potential for large hail/damaging winds. Still, linear forcing along the front and very modest mid-level ascent reduces confidence in a discrete storm mode and sufficient storm coverage, precluding any increase in severe probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024/ ...Southern High Plains... A potent upper low and associated 65-75 kt mid-level jet max centered over AZ are expected to quickly move eastward, overspreading the southern Rockies/High Plains this afternoon and evening. At the surface, sustained southerly flow ahead of a deepening surface low and trailing cold front over western NM will support moderate destabilization (MLCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg) with afternoon heating and continued low-level upslope. As the mid-level system approaches, mid-level height falls and flow aloft will intensify, elongating low and mid-level hodographs, allowing for convective development/organization in the form of supercells. One source of continued uncertainty is the ongoing elevated convection and cloud debris centered north of a diffuse surface boundary stretching from central NM to the western TX Panhandle. So far, this boundary has been slowly lifting north with pronounced low-level theta-e advection taking place to the south. As deep-layer ascent intensifies through the late morning, continued convective development to the north may support reinforcement and stalling of the boundary. The northward extent of destabilization remains unclear, though this boundary could serve as a focus for renewed development of more robust convection expected later this afternoon. Most CAM guidance shows scattered thunderstorms initiating off the higher terrain of eastern NM, or ahead of the cold front farther west by early this afternoon. These storms should quickly mature with supportive thermodynamics and kinematics, eventually spreading eastward into the TX Panhandle. The risk for large to very large hail/severe gusts will likely accompany the stronger supercells, and a threat for a couple tornadoes may be realized later this afternoon/early evening from eastern NM into parts of adjacent west TX, especially near the boundary where low-level shear may be locally enhanced. ...Upper Midwest and MO Valley... A second upper low near the international border is forecast to quickly move eastward reaching the western Great Lakes by early this evening. Weak ascent is expected ahead of a surging cold front and diffuse wave cyclone across the northern MO valley and southern MN. Surface moistening with a warm front lifting north near the IA/MN border may act as a focus for more robust convective development along the cold front late this afternoon. Increasingly orthogonal deep-layer flow and steeping low/mid-level lapse rates could support a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters. A few of the stronger storms may pose some hail/wind threat, which should peak in intensity during the early evening. However, somewhat limited heating and the lack of broader forcing for ascent suggests storm coverage should remain isolated. ...Western PA into the Mid Atlantic... Short-wave troughing across the upper OH Valley within mid-level northwesterly flow is expected to support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across western PA/VA later this afternoon. Model forecast soundings with moderate buoyancy and modest deep-layer shear would imply some of the stronger storms being capable of an isolated risk for wind damage (50-60 mph) and perhaps some hail. This activity will likely diminish by early evening coincident with nocturnal cooling. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks to the Ohio Valley and Mid-South region on Monday. ...Synopsis... The mid-level trough over the Southwest on Saturday will start to be absorbed within the more broad westerlies on Monday as it moves into the Missouri region. As this occurs, a belt of mid-level flow will overspread the Ozarks to Ohio Valley region where a moist airmass is in place ahead of a synoptic cold front. This cold front will move slowly east through the period Monday. ...Ozarks to Ohio Valley Region... Extensive cloud-cover from overnight convection will likely limit warm-sector heating from northern Arkansas and southern Missouri to western Kentucky and southern Indiana on Monday. However, at least some breaks in the clouds should result in pockets of greater destabilization, particularly later in the day. Inhibition will be limited across the warm sector, so any areas with greater surface heating will likely convect given the moist airmass and weak height falls during the day. The lack of strong heating or any capping inversion should keep instability somewhat weak through the day and result in a mostly marginal severe threat despite moderate deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible within this zone of weak instability and moderate shear which may pose a threat for large hail or damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley.. 09/21/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 21 19:25:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2094 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2094 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico and West Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 211815Z - 212015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Persistent upslope flow and daytime heating should allow for continued thunderstorm development early this afternoon over eastern NM. Gradual intensification/organization into supercells is expected. Large to very large hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible. A WW is likely needed. DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, regional WV imagery showed a potent upper low quickly overspreading the southern Rockies and High Plains. Height falls and the approach of a 70 kt speed max will support fairly strong forcing for ascent over the region through the next several hours. Diurnal heating and low-level warm air advection over much of eastern NM and west TX will support moderate destabilization with 1500-2000 J/Kg of MLCAPE expected. In combination with the synoptic scale-forcing and continued upslope of low-60s F surface dewpoints, additional storm development is likely early this afternoon. As convection evolves, the strong mid-level flow aloft will also gradually overspread the area, supporting large effective shear. KFDX VAD data shows veering low and mid-level hodographs have expanded, with 45-50 kt of effective shear present. Storm organization into supercells is expected with time. Fairly steep mid-level lapse rates (~7-8 C/Km) and the semi-discrete mode suggest large to very large hail will be likely with the more robust supercells. Damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes are also possible, owing to the strengthening flow aloft, and enhanced low-level shear near a diffuse surface boundary. Short-term model guidance and observational trends suggest the ongoing convection should steadily increase in intensity/organization through the remainder of the afternoon. Additional storm development/intensification is also likely along the cold front across central NM later this afternoon, though timing remains somewhat uncertain. With the potential for all hazards across much of eastern NM and west TX, a WW appears likely in the next couple of hours. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 35490474 36430340 36430178 35850129 35330100 34130133 31620314 31110422 31170503 31580537 32550541 34130526 34720509 35490474 Read more