SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z... Only minor adjustments were made to thunderstorm areas across the southeast to reflect recent trends in radar and satellite with ongoing convection. Otherwise, the Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with only minor changes made to the Elevated highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... An upper trough over the West will shift east toward the central/southern Rockies on Tuesday. As this occurs, several shortwave perturbations will migrate through enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow from the southern Plains to the Lower MS and TN Valleys. Vertically veering wind profiles that typically would support organized convection and supercells will be present. However, most forecast guidance indicates deeper boundary-layer moisture will largely remain confined to coastal vicinity from southeast TX into LA. Some northward advection of modest boundary-layer moisture across the Lower MS Valley ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front, is possible, but parcels will likely not be able to take advantage of this moisture owing to an EML/warm layer between 925-850 mb, precluding much in the way of surface-based instability. Midlevel lapse rates also will remain modest, though weak MUCAPE (generally less than 800 J/kg) will be present. Warm advection through the period will result in isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms, much of which are likely to occur to the cool side of the surface boundary. Some of the stronger thunderstorms could produce small/sub-severe hail, but overall severe potential is expected to remain limited due to the overall poor thermodynamic conditions. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas to southeast Oklahoma Monday night/early Tuesday. ...Southern Plains... Quasi-zonal upper flow will overspread much of the CONUS on Monday. As an upper trough develops slowly east across the Southwest and northern Mexico, deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Weak large-scale ascent will overspread the region during the nighttime hours, providing some support for convective development. At the surface, a cold front will linger near the Gulf coast. Some northward retreat of this boundary is possible, though forecast guidance still varies quite a bit regarding the location of the boundary during the last 6-12 hours of the forecast period. Regardless, deeper boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the TX coastal Plain. Nevertheless, warm advection atop the boundary into central/north TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity is expected. Some cooling aloft and steepening lapse rates will support modest elevated instability (generally less than 400 J/kg MUCAPE) overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible within this warm advection regime from near the TX Big Bend to southeast OK Monday night/early Tuesday. Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low given poor thermodynamics. ..Leitman.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the CONUS today, with prevalent surface high pressure across the Plains/Midwest and a prominent front across the Deep South. Elevated thunderstorm potential across the Mid-South will continue to diminish into midday/early afternoon as warm-air advection abates. Thunderstorms may also develop across downstate parts of the Carolinas this afternoon into evening near the aforementioned front and a weak surface wave. Modest surface-based instability will exist mainly across coastal South Carolina in the presence semi-straight/elongated hodographs, but modest convergence and residual warm layers aloft are suggestive of a minimal severe-weather potential. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft, with several embedded shortwave troughs, is expected across the northern CONUS today. Largely zonal flow is anticipated across the southern CONUS, with negligible height changes. Recent surface analysis shows an expansive area of high pressure associated with a dry, continental airmass covering much of the central and eastern CONUS. A weak frontal boundary is in place from the TX Coastal Plains northeastward across the Southeast States into NC, between the cooler and dry airmass to its north and the modified Gulf airmass to its south. A slow southward progression of this front is anticipated throughout the day, with this front likely extending from southern GA westward along the Gulf Coast into South TX by 12Z Monday. ...Arklatex into the Mid-South... Modest warm-air advection across the frontal zone mentioned in the synopsis is contributing to showers and isolated thunderstorms across Arkansas this morning. 12Z LZK sounding sampled the airmass supporting these showers and thunderstorms well, with a notable warm nose contributing to scant elevated buoyancy above about 850 mb. The warm-air advection is expected to persist over the region for at least the next several hours, while it gradually shifts eastward and weakens. This will support the potential for isolated thunderstorms this morning from the Arklatex eastward into the Mid-South, with the overall thunderstorm potential diminishing with eastern extent. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... A broad trough will continue to evolve across the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late in the period, though model timing differences are noted with this feature. Though its position is still a bit uncertain, a cold front will extent from West/Central Texas into the central Gulf Coast--the NAM being the most southern solution. Precipitation is expected to be ongoing early in the period within a warm advection zone along the front. This activity should remain behind the front and help to reinforce it. Development south of the boundary where some muted heating could occur seems unlikely given warmer/drier air aloft. ...Central into East Texas... As the upper trough moves into the region by early Wednesday morning, warm advection atop the colder air will intensify. Mid-level lase rates will steepen with time and shear would support organized storms. MUCAPE is expected to be a modest 400-800 J/kg. However, the boundary position and warm advection zone is still uncertain. Deep-layer shear will also be roughly parallel to the boundary and model soundings do indicate a potential warm/dry layer that could hinder convective development. Confidence in severe weather is low, though the stronger elevated storms could produce small hail. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Fast, zonal flow will remain entrenched across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Monday as the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough moves very little. At the same time, a series of short-wave trough will emerge out of the eastern Pacific and lift northeast toward CONUS before merging with the larger-scale flow. As the first in the series of these waves approaches the Southwest United States on Monday, mid-level flow should ramp up as compared to Sunday. The increase in mid-level flow should mix down to the surface across portions of southern and central New Mexico and far west Texas. The result will be strong, gusty afternoon winds (near 20 mph sustained with gusts to 30 likely). ERC percentiles in this area are not particularly high, but should be sufficiently high-enough to support fire potential. Specifically for Monday, the limiting factor will be how low relative humidity will fall during the afternoon. If extensive cloud cover persists across the region (aided by ascent ahead of the short-wave trough), then relative humidity may stay sufficiently high enough to preclude critical fire weather conditions. However, if skies are mostly clear, diurnal heating may support minimum afternoon relative humidity falling into the teens, which would support critical fire highlights. At this point, the large-scale pattern should favor at least some mid-to-high-level clouds, so will hold off on introducing critical fire weather highlights at this time, but conditions will continue to be monitored. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale fire weather conditions are not expected across the contiguous United States (CONUS) on Sunday. Much of the CONUS will be on the downstream side of a positively tilted long-wave trough across North America. This will result in fast zonal mid-level flow across much of the CONUS. However, this strong mid-level flow should be removed from the dry regions of the Southwest. The absence of mid-level support will allow surface winds to remain below criteria thresholds where relative humidity falls into the teens. ..Marsh.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Zonal flow east of the Divide will generally shift eastward Monday. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will lift northeastward through northern Mexico into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, a cold front initially near the Gulf Coast will likely move slowly northward in response to the approaching trough. Modest mid-level ascent and weak low-level warm advection will occur late in the period from the Edwards Plateau into northeast Texas. As scattered showers develop overnight Monday, a few embedded thunderstorms may occur given the weak elevated buoyancy present. Though shear will be strong, the poor thermodynamic environment will keep potential for severe weather quite low. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A low risk for a few thunderstorms exists early in the period across the Mid-South region. ...Mid-South Region... Negligible height changes will be noted across lower latitudes today as stronger westerly flow is expected across the Ohio Valley/middle Atlantic region. This flow regime has allowed significant continental air mass to settle into the middle of the country, forcing a cold front to extend across the Carolinas-central Gulf States-central TX early in the period. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests a very weak disturbance is lifting northeast across southwest TX, and this may encourage somewhat stronger flow at 850mb by daybreak from northeast TX into southern AR. Forecast NAM soundings for this region exhibit adequate MUCAPE (in excess of 500 J/kg) if lifting parcels around 1-2km. While large-scale ascent should prove minimal, weak low-level warm advection, and moist uninhibited parcels, suggest isolated convection may evolve along a corridor from southeast OK/northeast TX into southern AR early in the period. This activity will spread east toward northern MS, then weaken as it encounters less favorable environment for deep updrafts. Even so, overall thunder probabilities are generally expected to remain around 10 percent. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 02/09/2025 Read more

MD 0079 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN NY
Mesoscale Discussion 0079 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0901 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of New England and eastern NY Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 090301Z - 090700Z SUMMARY...Multiple bands of heavy snow with rates of 1-2 inches per hour should persist into the early morning across eastern New York into parts of New England. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery and surface observations, along with recent reports, indicate multiple swaths of heavy snow are ongoing across parts of the Northeast. The most probable area for the highest rates should exist over southern New England, just to the east-northeast of the occluding transition zone between snow and sleet. OKX dual-pol radar has sampled enhanced KDP below the dendritic growth zone, indicative of heavy snow. 21Z SREF and 00Z HREF guidance support potential for 2 in/hr bursts across parts of CT/MA/RI, until enough warming near 700 mb occurs for sleet and/or mid-level drying advects into the dendritic growth layer during the early morning. Farther north, a more west/east-oriented deformation zone from Lake Ontario to the Capital District should pivot east during the next several hours. Snowfall rates in this band should more steadily hold around 1 in/hr as it spreads across southern parts of VT/NH/ME. ..Grams.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... LAT...LON 43756998 42667047 41946973 41196992 40967253 41477340 41877393 42907461 43477457 43717386 43907156 43756998 Read more

MD 0077 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0077 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0521 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast and southern New England Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 082321Z - 090315Z SUMMARY...Leading corridor of winter storm across the Northeast will produce a heavy snow band before transitioning to sleet/freezing rain from the southwest. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are likely. DISCUSSION...A fast-moving swath of winter mixed precip will spread across the Northeast and southern New England states through the rest of this evening. Strengthening low to mid-level ascent will yield a band of heavy snow along the leading periphery of this precip plume where the thermodynamic profile remains entirely below freezing. The initial swath should emanate out of the north-central PA/southwest NY vicinity, where heavy snow has been observed, and should expand east-southeastward along the NY to PA/NJ border area over the next few hours. A longer-lasting deformation zone within the cold-conveyor region should develop east from the Lake Erie vicinity and move across much of southern NY during the next several hours. A highly consistent signal persists across daytime guidance with snowfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. The southern portion of the heavy snow swath to about the Upper DE and Lower Hudson Valleys should mix with/transition to sleet/freezing rain later in the evening. ..Grams.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 40677327 41357478 41657603 41777768 42117911 42547929 43117880 43417525 43287361 42927212 42647131 42087094 41517107 40927210 40677327 Read more

MD 0078 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0078 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0524 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...far northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic and far southern portions of New England Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 082324Z - 090330Z SUMMARY...Snow should overspread the region in the next few hours. With time, the snow should transition to sleet and even freezing rain before ending later this evening/overnight. DISCUSSION...An area of mixed winter precipitation continues across western and central Pennsylvania this evening. This precipitation area developed/is being maintained on the nose of strong low-level warm-air advection across a deep layer. Over the next few hours this warm-air advection and associated isentropic ascent will overspread eastern Pennsylvania and much of New Jersey. Surface temperatures in the upper-20Fs and low-30Fs, coupled with dewpoint temperatures in the upper-teens and low-20Fs, yield wet-bulb temperatures below 32F. Thermal profiles across the region will initially support all snow. However, as the warm-air advection warms the low-levels, the maximum temperature in the column should increase above 32F yielding sleet and potentially eventually freezing rain before precipitation ends from southwest to northeast. ..Marsh.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39177553 39527647 40417671 41247631 41547565 41477463 41017363 39987304 39137378 38907485 39177553 Read more