SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ..Thornton.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST TEXAS INTO MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from northwest Texas to central Missouri. ...Southern Plains to Missouri... An upper trough over the central/southern Rockies Sunday morning will track east over the central/southern Plains. Around 40-50 kt southwesterly flow will overspread northwest TX into KS/OK and MO ahead of this feature. At the surface, A cold front will develop southeast across the Mid-MS Valley to southern Plains. Convection may be ongoing across portions of the central/southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley Sunday morning, resulting in some uncertainty in airmass destabilization through peak heating. Nevertheless, a seasonally moist airmass and favorable vertical shear will support organized thunderstorm clusters during the afternoon/evening ahead of the advancing cold front. Some risk for damaging gusts will accompany this activity from northwest TX into central MO. ..Leitman.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, the mid Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central Appalachians region. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A southern stream upper low and attendant trough will progress east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies on Saturday. An area of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft associated with the ejecting trough will become oriented over eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles by 00z/Sun. While strong heating will result in some boundary layer mixing, south/southeasterly low-level flow will result in persistent theta-e advection, and dewpoints from the upper 50s to low 60s F are expected. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will contribute to modest destabilization, with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE forecast across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles amid strengthening midlevel flow will support isolated supercell thunderstorms. Large hail and sporadic strong/severe gusts are possible. Given increasing consistency in forecast guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included for parts of the eastern NM Plains into west Texas. Additional strong storms are possible to the north and west across northeast NM into south-central CO beneath the core of mid/upper low. Instability will be weaker across this area, but isolated strong gusts and marginal hail will still be possible with the strongest storms. ...Western PA into northern/central VA... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Northeast on Saturday. Northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Upper OH Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints and pockets of stronger heating will support weak destabilization. Modest vertical shear (around 20-25 kt effective shear) will aid in at least transient organized updrafts. Elongated/straight hodographs and cool temperatures aloft suggest marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Locally strong gusts also will be possible where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs. ...Central Plains to Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley... The forecast for this region remains quite uncertain for Saturday. Most guidance depicts some degree of convection ongoing across parts of IA/MO Saturday morning. The evolution of this activity will impact how the airmass destabilizes/recovers late in the afternoon across the region. Nevertheless, large-scale ascent will increase over the Upper Midwest as a northern stream upper trough traverses the Canadian Prairies and the international border vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s dewpoints ahead of a cold front tracking southeast across MN and the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley from late afternoon into the evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and gusty winds will be possible, but the overall risk remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday afternoon to early evening in New Mexico and the southern High Plains, the mid Missouri Valley to upper Mississippi Valley, and central Appalachians region. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... A southern stream upper low and attendant trough will progress east across the Four Corners and southern Rockies on Saturday. An area of enhanced southwesterly flow aloft associated with the ejecting trough will become oriented over eastern NM into the OK/TX Panhandles by 00z/Sun. While strong heating will result in some boundary layer mixing, south/southeasterly low-level flow will result in persistent theta-e advection, and dewpoints from the upper 50s to low 60s F are expected. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will contribute to modest destabilization, with 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE forecast across parts of eastern NM into the TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. Vertically veering wind profiles amid strengthening midlevel flow will support isolated supercell thunderstorms. Large hail and sporadic strong/severe gusts are possible. Given increasing consistency in forecast guidance, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been included for parts of the eastern NM Plains into west Texas. Additional strong storms are possible to the north and west across northeast NM into south-central CO beneath the core of mid/upper low. Instability will be weaker across this area, but isolated strong gusts and marginal hail will still be possible with the strongest storms. ...Western PA into northern/central VA... A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Northeast on Saturday. Northwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the Upper OH Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. A corridor of low to mid 60s F dewpoints and pockets of stronger heating will support weak destabilization. Modest vertical shear (around 20-25 kt effective shear) will aid in at least transient organized updrafts. Elongated/straight hodographs and cool temperatures aloft suggest marginally severe hail will be possible with the stronger cells. Locally strong gusts also will be possible where stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates occurs. ...Central Plains to Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley... The forecast for this region remains quite uncertain for Saturday. Most guidance depicts some degree of convection ongoing across parts of IA/MO Saturday morning. The evolution of this activity will impact how the airmass destabilizes/recovers late in the afternoon across the region. Nevertheless, large-scale ascent will increase over the Upper Midwest as a northern stream upper trough traverses the Canadian Prairies and the international border vicinity. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s dewpoints ahead of a cold front tracking southeast across MN and the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley from late afternoon into the evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing hail and gusty winds will be possible, but the overall risk remains uncertain. ..Leitman.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF INDIANA...ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A leading shortwave trough will weaken as it moves across the upper Great Lakes today, while a secondary and stronger system moves into MT and the northern Plains late. An upper high will hold over the southern Plains, which will aid a strengthening midlevel height gradient over the central and northern Plains as the wave approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a deep upper low will affect southern CA and move into AZ through Saturday morning. At the surface, a trough will develop over the northern High Plains late in the day, with high pressure over the eastern states. A weak/residual boundary will extend roughly from Lake MI into central IL, MO, and toward I-70 in KS, with a moist air mass to the south. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will return north late this evening and overnight as southerly winds around 850 mb increase to over 40 kt. Otherwise, a cold front associated with the MT disturbance will push across the Dakotas and into central NE overnight and through 12Z Saturday. ...Western Lower MI into IN and IL... Daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass near the weak surface boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated from western Lower MI southwestward into southern MO as a result. However, forecast soundings indicate poor midlevel lapse rates along with substantial midlevel dry air, which may diminish severity somewhat. That said, locally strong gusts will be possible, and perhaps small to marginal hail. ...Central Plains... Strong heating and southwest surface winds will lead to a plume of steep low-level lapse rates from the TX Panhandle toward the KS/OK border this afternoon. Meanwhile, higher dewpoints will remain near a stalled front over KS, which will support high-based storms initially over northeast NM across the Panhandles and into southwest KS. Given the very deep mixed layers, a few strong to severe gusts may occur. With time, outflow may yield downstream development with more robust cores and perhaps marginal hail across south-central KS. During the late evening, the returning boundary and associated theta-e advection may support a rash of storms from near the NE/KS border, with veering 850 mb winds over time redirecting said advection and lift eastward across the KC Metro. Strong wind gusts appear to be the main risk with such activity. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF INDIANA...ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of Illinois, Indiana, and southwest Lower Michigan. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... A leading shortwave trough will weaken as it moves across the upper Great Lakes today, while a secondary and stronger system moves into MT and the northern Plains late. An upper high will hold over the southern Plains, which will aid a strengthening midlevel height gradient over the central and northern Plains as the wave approaches from the northwest. Meanwhile, a deep upper low will affect southern CA and move into AZ through Saturday morning. At the surface, a trough will develop over the northern High Plains late in the day, with high pressure over the eastern states. A weak/residual boundary will extend roughly from Lake MI into central IL, MO, and toward I-70 in KS, with a moist air mass to the south. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will return north late this evening and overnight as southerly winds around 850 mb increase to over 40 kt. Otherwise, a cold front associated with the MT disturbance will push across the Dakotas and into central NE overnight and through 12Z Saturday. ...Western Lower MI into IN and IL... Daytime heating of a moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass near the weak surface boundary. Scattered thunderstorms are anticipated from western Lower MI southwestward into southern MO as a result. However, forecast soundings indicate poor midlevel lapse rates along with substantial midlevel dry air, which may diminish severity somewhat. That said, locally strong gusts will be possible, and perhaps small to marginal hail. ...Central Plains... Strong heating and southwest surface winds will lead to a plume of steep low-level lapse rates from the TX Panhandle toward the KS/OK border this afternoon. Meanwhile, higher dewpoints will remain near a stalled front over KS, which will support high-based storms initially over northeast NM across the Panhandles and into southwest KS. Given the very deep mixed layers, a few strong to severe gusts may occur. With time, outflow may yield downstream development with more robust cores and perhaps marginal hail across south-central KS. During the late evening, the returning boundary and associated theta-e advection may support a rash of storms from near the NE/KS border, with veering 850 mb winds over time redirecting said advection and lift eastward across the KC Metro. Strong wind gusts appear to be the main risk with such activity. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 09/20/2024 Read more

WW 0679 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 679 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S CQB TO 15 N TUL TO 25 WNW GMJ TO 10 W JLN TO 40 ENE CNU TO 35 SW OJC. ..THORNTON..09/20/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 679 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC021-037-107-121-200340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LINN MIAMI MOC011-013-015-037-039-057-083-085-097-101-119-145-159-185-217- 200340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON CASS CEDAR DADE HENRY HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON MCDONALD NEWTON PETTIS ST. CLAIR VERNON OKC035-037-041-097-115-131-143-145-200340- OK Read more

WW 679 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 192230Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Western Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to intensify through the evening across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma, spreading into parts of western Missouri through the evening. Damaging winds and some hail are the main concerns. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south of Bartlesville OK to 100 miles north northeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677...WW 678... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0677 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 677 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE MCW TO 20 S RST TO 15 WNW LSE TO 30 ESE MSP TO 65 NE MSP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0289 ..THORNTON..09/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 677 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC037-067-089-191-200240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD WINNESHIEK MNC055-200240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HOUSTON WIC005-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107-109-119-121- 200240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0678 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 678 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ENE BRD TO 40 N IWD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2090 ..THORNTON..09/20/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 678 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC003-007-013-031-099-113-129-200240- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN LSZ121-200240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms remain possible through this evening from the upper Mississippi Valley southward into northeast Oklahoma. A shortwave trough will shift northeastward out over the Dakotas and MN this evening, as an upper low moves northeastward across MB. Winds aloft will weaken over the area, though cooling aloft will continue spreading into the upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a weak front/wind shift extends from the main surface low over MB southward across MN and into IA, and from southeast KS into northwest OK. The strongest cells currently stretch from the MN Arrowhead southward into north central IA, with primarily discrete storm mode along the front. Farther south, a secondary area of storms persist over southeast KS into northeast OK. Tornado watch #678 continues over northwest WI this evening, where low-level shear is a bit stronger. Storms across this area may persist for several more hours before dissipating, as temperatures aloft are cooling. Farther south, Severe Thunderstorm watches #677 and #679 continue along the boundary, where storms remain within the diurnal instability axis. Temperatures aloft are quite warm here, and storms should dissipate sooner than points north. Until then, locally severe gusts or hail will be possible. For more information see mesoscale discussion #2089. ..Jewell.. 09/20/2024 Read more

WW 0679 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 679 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 S PNC TO 15 N CNU TO 30 S TOP. ..THORNTON..09/19/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...SGF...EAX...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 679 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-011-019-021-037-099-107-121-125-133-205-200040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD LABETTE LINN MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON MOC011-013-015-037-039-057-083-085-097-101-119-145-159-185-217- 200040- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BATES BENTON CASS CEDAR DADE HENRY HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON MCDONALD NEWTON PETTIS ST. CLAIR VERNON OKC035-041-097-105-113-115-117-131-143-145-147-200040- Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 19 23:23:11 UTC 2024.

WW 679 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 192230Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 530 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Western Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 530 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue to intensify through the evening across southeast Kansas and northern Oklahoma, spreading into parts of western Missouri through the evening. Damaging winds and some hail are the main concerns. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south of Bartlesville OK to 100 miles north northeast of Joplin MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677...WW 678... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Hart Read more

WW 0678 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 678 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..09/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 678 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC017-031-075-115-137-200040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CARLTON COOK LAKE PINE ST. LOUIS WIC003-007-013-031-099-113-129-200040- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLAND BAYFIELD BURNETT DOUGLAS PRICE SAWYER WASHBURN LSZ121-140-141-142-143-144-145-146-147-148-150-162-200040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHEQUAMEGON BAY-BAYFIELD TO OAK POINT WI Read more

WW 678 TORNADO MN WI LS 192205Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 678 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Minnesota Northwest Wisconsin Lake Superior * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 505 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across northeastern Minnesota and track eastward across the watch area this evening. Isolated intense/supercells are possible, capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Grand Marais MN to 85 miles south of Duluth MN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 677... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0677 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 677 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE FOD TO 35 N MCW TO 55 NNE MSP. ..THORNTON..09/19/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...ARX...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 677 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC033-037-067-089-131-191-195-200040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW FLOYD HOWARD MITCHELL WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC039-045-047-049-055-099-109-131-147-157-163-169-200040- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FILLMORE FREEBORN GOODHUE HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED RICE STEELE WABASHA WASHINGTON WINONA WIC005-011-017-019-033-035-053-063-091-093-095-107-109-119-121- 200040- WI Read more

WW 677 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 191910Z - 200300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southern and East-Central Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop this afternoon while posing a threat for large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. As this activity spreads east-northeastward, damaging winds around 60-70 mph may become more of a threat through this evening, especially if thunderstorms can form into clusters. A tornado or two also appears possible with any persistent, surface-based supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Eau Claire WI to 15 miles southwest of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Gleason Read more

MD 2087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024 Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 192017Z - 192215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is anticipated by around 4-6 PM CDT across northern Oklahoma into southern/southeast Kansas. This activity may pose a severe hail/wind threat as it spreads into eastern Kansas this evening. Watch issuance may be needed later this afternoon/evening to address this concern. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery over the past 30 minutes has shown a steady uptick in cumulus development along a diffuse surface trough/cold front from southern KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. The 18 UTC sounding from TOP shows a stout cap remains in place across east/northeast KS, but hot temperatures across OK/southern KS in the upper 90s to low 100s are actively mixing out lingering inhibition (as evidenced by the recent deep convection along I-40 in western OK). This trend appears to be faster than depicted by recent CAM solutions, suggesting that robust initiation may occur in the coming hours across southern KS. As storms develop, they will mature in an environment characterized by MLCAPE values between 1500-2500 J/kg and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear (based on the recent TOP sounding and latest mesosnalysis estimates). Deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the front should favor discrete cells initially with a large hail threat (most likely hail size between 1.0 to 1.75 inches), but increasing storm coverage through early evening should promote clustering with an increasing potential for severe winds (50-70 mph) as activity spreads into eastern KS. While timing remains somewhat uncertain, watch issuance may be needed late this afternoon/early evening across this region. ..Moore/Gleason.. 09/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 36889803 37859703 37989695 38609644 38919624 39169606 39279587 39419560 39449536 39439512 39379492 39269480 39169465 38909455 38549456 38059462 37689482 37319511 37029559 36819600 36699632 36439778 36399808 36449827 36579835 36669827 36889803 Read more