SPC Tornado Watch 11 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NE ABY TO 40 NNW VDI TO 10 W AGS. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC091-107-175-209-271-279-283-309-161340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE EMANUEL LAURENS MONTGOMERY TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WHEELER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC MD 107

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Georgia...South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 161052Z - 161315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts are expected this morning across parts western and central South Carolina. Weather watch issuance remains uncertain. DISCUSSION...Mosaic radar imagery currently shows a squall line across parts of central Georgia extending northeastward into far western South Carolina. The line is being supported by strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and by forcing along a fast-moving cold front. Ahead of the line, instability is very weak, with surface dewpoints in the 50s F across western South Carolina and northeast Georgia. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Greenville/Spartanburg has about 85 knot of 0-6 km shear with 40 to 50 knots of south-southwesterly flow located just above the surface. An isolated wind-damage threat will be possible with the stronger cells within the line. Given the very strong low-level shear, meso-scale vorticies will be possible in the line with embedded cells that remain surface-based. However, forecast soundings in far western South Carolina have a sharp near surface temperature inversion, which should keep any severe threat isolated and localized. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP...FFC... LAT...LON 35208161 35168219 35048258 34768279 34268314 33768337 33478343 33058296 33018208 33158120 33408066 33838035 34298023 34458026 34728042 34848055 35088106 35208161 35208161 Read more

SPC MD 108

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0108 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 11...12... FOR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0108 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0532 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Eastern Georgia...Far Southern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 11...12... Valid 161132Z - 161330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 11, 12 continues. SUMMARY...Severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible as a squall line moves eastward across the remainder of Georgia this morning. Southern South Carolina will also be affected. Weather watch issuance may become necessary later this morning, to the east of the ongoing watches. DISCUSSION...The latest mosaic radar imagery shows a squall line located in Georgia from Albany northeastward to about 50 statute miles west of Augusta. The line is located ahead of a fast-moving cold front. Surface dewpoints ahead of the line are mostly in the 60s F, with the RAP showing weak instability in place. In spite of this, the line has remained organized likely due to strong large-scale ascent associated with an approaching trough, and frontal forcing. Short-term model forecasts suggest the line will remain intact for several more hours this morning, as it approaches the Atlantic coast. The strong low to mid-level flow, evident on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will likely enable the line to produce severe gusts, especially with bowing segments that form within the line itself. Very strong low-level shear will also likely support an isolated tornado threat in the short-term. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31238148 31728108 32248076 32668075 32948117 33148191 33218289 32988335 32238389 31798434 31478461 31278464 30998454 30818373 30798235 31238148 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 11 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNW ABY TO 35 NE MCN. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC023-081-091-093-107-125-153-163-167-175-209-235-271-279-283- 301-303-309-315-319-161240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLECKLEY CRISP DODGE DOOLY EMANUEL GLASCOCK HOUSTON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LAURENS MONTGOMERY PULASKI TELFAIR TOOMBS TREUTLEN WARREN WASHINGTON WHEELER WILCOX WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 11

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 11 TORNADO GA TN 160705Z - 161400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 11 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northern and Western Georgia Far Southeast Tennessee * Effective this Sunday morning from 205 AM until 900 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms will continue to pose a threat for a couple of tornadoes and scattered to numerous damaging winds up to 60-70 mph as it moves quickly eastward early this morning. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles north northwest of Chattanooga TN to 55 miles south southwest of Macon GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27045. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 12 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0012 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 12 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 12 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC031-045-061-067-069-161140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COFFEE DALE GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON FLC005-013-037-039-045-059-063-065-073-077-129-131-133-161140- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF HOLMES JACKSON JEFFERSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GAC007-017-019-027-037-061-071-075-087-095-099-131-155-177-201- 205-239-243-253-273-275-277-287-321-161140- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 12

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 12 TORNADO AL FL GA 160840Z - 161500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 12 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 340 AM EST Sun Feb 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama The Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia * Effective this Sunday morning from 340 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms should continue to pose a threat for scattered damaging winds up to 55-70 mph as it moves eastward this morning. A couple of line-embedded tornadoes may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north northeast of Albany GA to 30 miles east southeast of Panama City FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 10...WW 11... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Feb 16, 2025 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough embedded within a larger-scale upper trough over the eastern U.S. will move across the Southeast on Day 4/Wed. At the surface, a cold front will sweep across the central Gulf coast, GA and FL. Thunderstorms will likely accompany the front, with some potential for isolated strong storms across north FL, though overall severe potential appears too limited to include probabilities at this time. After Day 4/Wed, strong surface high pressure and cold/stable conditions will prevail the remainder of the forecast period. Little thunderstorm potential is expected Day 5/Thu through the weekend. Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 10 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 10 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0010 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S ASD TO 40 WNW GZH TO 45 N MGM TO 10 NNW RMG. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 10 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-003-005-011-013-017-019-027-029-035-037-039-041-051-053- 081-085-087-097-099-101-109-111-113-123-160940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BALDWIN BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CLAY CLEBURNE CONECUH COOSA COVINGTON CRENSHAW ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MOBILE MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RANDOLPH RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA FLC033-091-113-160940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA Read more

SPC MD 104

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0104 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 10... FOR ALABAMA...FLORIDA PANHANDLE...GEORGIA...SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0104 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Alabama...Florida Panhandle...Georgia...Southeast Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 10... Valid 160651Z - 160845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 10 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threats for wind damage and a few tornadoes will move quickly eastward across into western and northern Georgia, and across the remainder of southern and eastern Alabama during the early morning. New weather watch will be necessary ahead of the ongoing line. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley over the next few hours, as a surface low moves into the central Appalachians. An associated front is located over the central Gulf Coast states, with an organized squall line located ahead of the front. A narrow corridor of instability is analyzed ahead of the front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. In addition, RAP analysis shows a strong low to mid-level jet from eastern Mississippi northeastward into the southern Appalachians. 0-6 km shear is estimated to be in 65 to 80 knot range along this corridor and storm-relative helicity is very strong. This will continue to support a widespread severe threat over the next few hours. Severe gusts will be likely along the leading edge of the squall line and a few tornadoes also possible. ..Broyles.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB... LAT...LON 34728355 35078390 35238439 35298503 35128586 34488656 33398730 32278817 31678850 31228835 30898805 30648741 30618652 30828569 31678489 32228456 33938362 34728355 Read more

SPC MD 105

1 month 2 weeks ago
MD 0105 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN TENNESSEE...FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0105 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Tennessee...Far Western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 160740Z - 160945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe gusts will be possible over parts of eastern Tennessee and far western North Carolina over the next couple of hours. New weather watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...According to mosaic radar imagery, the northern end of a squall line is currently moving through middle Tennessee. Very little instability is analyzed ahead of the line. However, the latest WSR-88D VWP at Morristown has 0-6 km shear near 75 knots with 30 to 40 knots of flow in the lowest 1 km. As the squall line moves eastward into the higher terrain over the next hour or two, isolated damaging gusts will be possible along the leading edge of the line. Although a severe threat will likely persist, the threat is expected to remain too localized for weather watch issuance. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...OHX... LAT...LON 36088332 35978299 35688282 35378293 35178321 35048374 35028428 35288462 35428498 35538530 35778538 36008526 36158505 36188463 36088332 Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 10

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 10 TORNADO AL FL LA MS TN CW 160310Z - 161000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 10 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CST Sat Feb 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Alabama Western Florida Panhandle Southeast Louisiana Central and Southern Mississippi Southern Middle Tennessee Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 910 PM until 400 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A fast-moving line of thunderstorms will overspread the watch area through the early morning hours. Very strong winds aloft ahead of the line will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and embedded tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles southwest of Gulfport MS to 25 miles north of Huntsville AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 8...WW 9... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Hart Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 11 Status Reports

1 month 2 weeks ago
WW 0011 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E GAD TO 20 SSE CHA TO 35 NE CHA. ..BROYLES..02/16/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC015-021-023-035-045-053-055-057-063-067-077-079-081-089-091- 093-097-113-115-121-123-129-143-145-149-151-153-159-169-171-193- 197-199-207-213-215-217-223-225-227-231-233-235-247-249-255-259- 261-263-269-285-289-293-307-313-315-160940- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTOW BIBB BLECKLEY BUTTS CARROLL CHATTAHOOCHEE CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLAYTON COBB COWETA CRAWFORD CRISP DEKALB DODGE DOOLY DOUGLAS FAYETTE FLOYD FULTON GILMER GORDON HARALSON HARRIS HEARD HENRY HOUSTON JASPER JONES LAMAR MACON MARION MERIWETHER MONROE MURRAY MUSCOGEE NEWTON PAULDING PEACH PICKENS PIKE POLK PULASKI ROCKDALE SCHLEY SPALDING STEWART SUMTER TALBOT TAYLOR TROUP Read more

SPC Feb 16, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Feb 16, 2025 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Texas and portions of southern Louisiana Tuesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast TX/Coastal Plain vicinity... An upper trough will deepen as it moves across the Plains to the MS Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a strong Arctic cold front will develop southeast across TX through the evening hours. A surface low will develop east along the upper TX coast and southern LA/MS through early Wednesday, with the front becoming positioned from southern MS into the western Gulf Wednesday morning. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will allow 60s F dewpoints to spread northward across the TX coastal plain and southern LA/MS. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will allow for elevated instability to develop atop an elevated mixed layer between 925-850 mb. This will support thunderstorm develop in a warm advection regime near the advancing cold front. This activity will likely remain elevated. Nevertheless, increasing southwesterly flow with height will result in elongated/straight hodographs above the EML. MUCAPE around 750-1200 J/kg will support organized cells within a favorably sheared environment and isolated large hail will be possible. ..Leitman.. 02/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...Synopsis... A disturbance will bring enhanced westerly flow aloft on D2 - Monday across southern California into the desert southwest and across the southern Rockies. This will lead to an increase in surface winds across southern Arizona into New Mexico, as well as into the southern high Plains as lee troughing strengthens and surface low development occurs. Fuels across a region from far western Texas into southern New Mexico have undergone drying with the last passing system. ERCs will generally be around the 50th-75th percentile. Across southern Arizona, very little rainfall/snowfall has been observed, with ERCs also near the 75th percentile. Hi-res guidance from the HREF suggests longest duration Critical conditions would be tied to favored downslope regions near terrain features. As such, an Elevated was maintained with this outlook but locally Critical fire weather will be possible. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Sun Feb 16 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire concerns are expected to be low today. In the wake of a large scale trough and frontal passage, a cool air mass is expected to be in place across much of the southern High Plains and southwestern US where the driest conditions are likely today. Height rises with building high pressure aloft will also keep winds generally light, outside of a few localized terrain influences. ..Thornton.. 02/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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