SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes made to ongoing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Georgia. ...Lower MS Valley/Central Gulf Coast States... A large-scale upper trough will be located over the Plains/central U.S. Wednesday. A shortwave embedded within the larger-scale trough will rotated from the Plains to the Midwest/Great Lakes, resulting in a large swath of strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region. At the surface, low pressure will develop near the Sabine River during the morning, and deepen as the low lifts northeast through the period. Southerly low-level flow will maintain 60s F dewpoints across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states ahead of southeastward-advancing cold front. While widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation will limit stronger destabilization, and adds to uncertainty for this event, the overall large-scale pattern suggests some severe thunderstorm potential is likely from extreme southeast TX into MS/AL Wednesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will approach the I-20 corridor by afternoon as the surface low develop northeast into TN/KY by 00z. Additionally, strong shear will overspread the region for much of the period (decreasing from west to east with time). Large-scale ascent will be somewhat offset to the north of the better low-level moisture, but a glancing influence coupled with the sharpening of the southeast-advancing cold front will be sufficient to sustain convection in a strong warm advection regime. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs becoming elongated above 2-3 km, typical of supercell/QLCS environments and aided by a 45-60 kt low-level jet. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain poor given limited heating, and midlevel lapse rates also are expected to remain modest. MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg is evident in most forecast guidance, though surface-based instability is likely to remain muted. With shear vectors oriented parallel to the surface boundary, convection is likely to mostly be to the cool side of the boundary. However, given strength of shear and modest instability, some strong/severe wind potential is possible with organized line segments. While low-level lapse rates and instability are expected to remain poor, limiting overall tornado potential, a couple of mesovortex spin-ups within linear convection may still be possible given very favorable shear environment and any mesoscale pockets of greater instability. Currently, it is uncertain if convection will be able to develop ahead of the cold front in the open warm sector. Given the somewhat northward offset of stronger ascent and orientation of shear vectors to the initiating boundary, it appears low probability at this time that convection will be able to sufficiently deepen within the pre-frontal warm advection regime. However, if this occurs, a conditional risk for severe gusts and a couple of tornadoes with supercells will exist. The severe risk should gradually lessen overnight with north and east extent as instability decreases and large-scale ascent continues to lift to the northeast of the region. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1109 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Southern Plains to Lower MS Valley... A large-scale upper trough will migrate across the western U.S. on Tuesday, becoming oriented over the High Plains and northern Mexico by early Wednesday. Enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of this feature will overspread the southern Plains to the Lower MS, TN and OH Valleys. During the day, several shortwave impulses will migrate through southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the Mid-South, while stronger large-scale ascent tied to the main upper trough will emerge over OK/TX to the ArkLaTex early Wednesday. Forecast guidance continues to vary with position/evolution of a surface boundary located over the TX/LA coastal plain during the morning. The ECMWF continues to be somewhat of an outlier, maintaining a more northward position of this boundary compared to other guidance. This does introduce some uncertainty with regards to severe potential. However, the current expectation is that even if a more northerly surface boundary position occurs, several other factors will act to limit severe thunderstorm probabilities. While warm advection through the period will result in scattered thunderstorms from Tuesday morning into Wednesday morning from the southern Plains to the Lower MS Valley, large-scale ascent will be focused somewhat to the north of better low-level moisture near the Coastal Plain. Additionally, convection will largely remain to the cool side of the boundary given boundary-parallel deep-layer flow and a lack of stronger surface cyclogenesis. This should limit convective potential ahead of the front in the open warm sector. Forecast soundings also indicate warm layers aloft, and overall modest lapse rates, resulting in mostly weak elevated instability unfavorable for stronger updrafts despite moderate to strong vertical shear. Overnight, as stronger large-scale ascent moves into the southern Plains with the main upper trough, additional elevated thunderstorms are likely to develop across parts of central TX eastward toward the Sabine Valley. Cooling aloft will aid in steeper midlevel lapse rates and increasing MUCAPE. This activity may conditionally pose a risk for hail to near 1 inch diameter in the last 3-6 hours of the forecast period. Overall potential appears too limited/uncertain to include a Marginal risk at this time. ..Leitman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1019 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Central/North Texas and eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the CONUS with gradual trough amplification over the northern Intermountain West, Great Basin and Lower Colorado River Valley. Focused by increasing warm advection and isentropic ascent within the elevated frontal zone, thunderstorms may develop as early as this afternoon across south-central/eastern Oklahoma into western Arkansas, and then more broadly late tonight in a northeast-southwest corridor across North/central Texas toward the Edwards Plateau. While vertical shear will be strong within the cloud-bearing layer, seasonally mild mid-level temperatures and residual subsidence-related capping in the mid-levels will likely preclude meaningful hail potential with this elevated convection. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough off the southern CA/Baja CA coast. This feature is forecast to progress quickly east-northeastward throughout the day, traversing the Southwest/northern Mexico and reaching the southern Plains by tomorrow morning. Airmass ahead of this feature across the southern Plains is currently cool and dry, with the moist airmass still offshore. Mass response ahead of the approaching shortwave will lead to some modest airmass modification, with upper 50s/low 60s surface dewpoints potentially reaching the TX Hill Country/central TX by tomorrow morning. Even with these moistening low levels, warm mid-level temperatures will preclude buoyancy and deep convection across much of the TX Coastal Plain. Greater thunderstorm potential is anticipated farther north in corridor from the Edwards Plateau into southeast OK and western AR about 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Here, aforementioned mass response and associated strengthening of the low-level southwesterly flow will lead to moderate to strong low-level warm-air advection and the development of modest elevated buoyancy (generally above 800-750 mb). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as early as this afternoon across southeastern OK and western AR. Persistent warm-air advection will likely contribute to a continued potential for isolated thunderstorms across this region throughout the evening. This persistent warm-air advection will also help support the development of modest buoyancy into TX as mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching shortwave. Resulting buoyancy combined with increasing large-scale ascent should result in addition isolated thunderstorm development from north TX into the Edwards Plateau, largely after 06Z. Limited buoyancy should keep the severe potential low throughout the period. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/10/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears to be severe potential along parts of the East Coast as the initial trough moves offshore on Thursday. In advance of the next trough, initial moisture return into the lower Mississippi Valley region could promote some severe potential late Friday. Uncertainty in the environment/forcing precludes highlights both days. Severe weather potential increases further on Saturday in the Southeast and may linger into Sunday along the East Coast. For Monday, broad surface high pressure and cold air east of the Divide will minimize severe risk. ...Southeast... There has been a consistent signal for a potent upper-level trough to move into the West Coast on Friday. In response to this trough, a deep surface low is expected to develop in eastern Colorado and move into Oklahoma. These features will promote strong moisture return into parts of the central Gulf Coast states late Friday into Saturday. Appreciable moisture return may reach into the Mid-South. This setup would favor scattered to numerous severe storms from the Sabine Valley vicinity into much of Mississippi/Alabama. Both low-level and deep-layer shear would be strong in this regime. The surging cold front will likely be the primary focus for storms, but the strong synoptic forcing within a potentially weakly capped boundary-layer could also bring about more discrete storms ahead of the line as well. The primary uncertainties will be the timing/amplitude of the trough as well northward/eastward extent of sufficient buoyancy. With the consistent signal in deterministic and ML guidance, 15% severe probabilities appear warranted for Saturday. Refinement of the highlighted area is probable as additional data becomes available. ...Carolinas into Mid-Atlantic... As the strong trough, surface low, and cold front continue east on Sunday, there will be some potential for additional severe storms from the Mid-Atlantic in to portions of the Carolinas. It is not clear if the timing of these features will be well phased with the diurnal cycle. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SABINE VALLEY INTO FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night from the Sabine Valley vicinity into far western Alabama. ...Synopsis... As the shortwave trough near the ArkLaTex moves northeastward through the day on Wednesday, moisture return from the Gulf will continue ahead of a cold front that will move through the Lower Mississippi Valley and parts of the Southeast Wednesday evening/overnight. ...Sabine Valley into far western Alabama... Precipitation, likely north of the surface boundary, will be ongoing Wednesday morning. This will have impact on both frontal position and the exact degree of destabilization that can occur later in the day. As the trough moves northeast, low to mid 60s F dewpoints will move northward into much of Louisiana into central Mississippi and portions of Alabama. Upper 60s F dewpoints are possible near the Gulf Coast. As a surface low develops near the ArkLaTex late in the morning, storm development in the warm sector is possible near the Sabine Valley. Storms are expected to be at least near surface based. Storm development along the front is likely to continue through the period given strong low-level warm advection. This activity may occasionally be strong to severe given the 50-60 kts of effective shear. However, front-parallel shear will lead to storm interactions and little surge in the line. The front will eventually move southeastward, but this will not occur until the evening and overnight periods. Buoyancy will decrease with northward and eastward extent, but stronger forcing from the shortwave may compensate. Moisture advection should keep inhibition minimal even into the evening. The strong low-level winds and enlarged hodographs would suggest some threat of damaging winds as well as a tornado or two. The linear forcing from the front should limit the tornado threat. Development of storms in the open warm sector does not appear probable given the warmer layers aloft and the arrival of mid-level cooling during th early/mid evening. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A substantial midlevel trough, accompanied by strengthening westerly flow aloft, will cross the Lower CO River Valley during the day. At the same time, a related surface low will deepen over the Four Corners before drifting southeastward across NM. South of the surface low, a tightening pressure gradient will support 20-25 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH across southeast AZ, southern/central NM, and the TX Trans-Pecos. The best overlap of strong/gusty surface winds and low RH is expected over portions of southwestern NM during the afternoon, and given increasingly dry fuels, critical fire-weather conditions are expected here. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough over the West, an embedded shortwave trough will track eastward across the Southwest. This will encourage a broad area of surface low pressure over the southern Rockies and High Plains. Along/south of the surface low, a modest pressure gradient, coupled with boundary-layer mixing into a belt of strong flow aloft, will favor 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) across portions of NM. While mid/high-level clouds will limit diurnal heating and RH reductions to an extent, dry antecedent conditions and at least filtered heating should still yield 15-25 percent minimum RH. As a result, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ..Weinman.. 02/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe weather is not currently anticipated. ...Synopsis... Broad upper-level troughing is expected to evolve over much of the West on Tuesday. A shortwave perturbation is expected to eject into the southern Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. At the surface, a cold front should extend from the southern High Plains into central Texas before arcing northeastward along the upper Texas Gulf Coast and into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley... Precipitation is likely to be ongoing early Tuesday morning. Most of this activity will be occurring on the cool side of the boundary. This should reinforce the front, though some modest northward progression of warmer, moist air may occur within the coastal plain regions. Potential for surface-based storms south of the boundary in southeast Texas/Sabine Valley vicinity appears low as the low-level jet will weaken during the morning/afternoon and mid-level ascent will be weak. Furthermore, forecast soundings indicate poor lapse rates in the column and warm layers that will inhibit updraft intensity. Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, additional isolated to scattered storms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into Central/Northeast Texas as mid-level forcing and 850 mb warm advection increases. Again, these storms will be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. The strongest of these storms could produce small hail. The overall severe threat appears too isolated/uncertain for unconditional probabilities. ..Wendt.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from central Texas across southeast Oklahoma into extreme western Arkansas tonight. ...TX/OK/AR... Short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula is forecast to eject northeast toward west TX during the latter half of the period. Modest large-scale height falls will overspread the southwestern US ahead of this feature, and LLJ is expected to develop across TX in response to this approaching feature. Latest model guidance suggests a focused zone of warm advection will evolve from the Edwards Plateau, northeast into northern AR, roughly 200 mi northwest of the primary synoptic boundary. Forecast soundings along this corridor do not exhibit appreciable buoyancy during the first half of the period as a strong cap near 700mb will effectively suppress deep convection, especially across TX. However, the cap will be much weaker across western AR into eastern OK by mid afternoon, and this is where isolated elevated thunderstorms may initiate, most likely after 21z. With time, the cap should gradually weaken across TX as profiles cool aloft ahead of the short wave. Primary concern for lightning will be after 06z as the main mid-level speed max translates into the southern Plains. Cool boundary layer and weak MUCAPE do not favor any meaningful risk for hail. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 02/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0631 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas. ...01z Update... Synoptic front is currently draped along the SC/NC border, arcing west into northern GA. Surface temperatures warmed into the lower 70s across the warm sector which have allowed 0-3km lapse rates to steepen near the wind shift, effectively weakening inhibition, though nocturnal cooling should begin to stabilize the boundary layer. While water-vapor imagery does not suggest any meaningful disturbance is approaching this region, westerly LLJ currently extends across northern AL/GA. This stronger flow should translate into the frontal zone later this evening which could aid convective development, and possibly a few thunderstorms. ..Darrow.. 02/10/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Feb 9 22:04:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A mid-level trough will amplify over the western CONUS, encouraging surface low development across the southern High Plains as a cold front sweeps southward over the central U.S. through the middle of the week. The mid-level trough will then impinge on the Northeast while a second mid-level trough rapidly approaches the southern Rockies late this week into the weekend. As this occurs, a surface cyclone should develop across the Plains states and move into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend. Dry and windy conditions are anticipated across portions of southern New Mexico into far western Texas with the passage of both mid-level troughs and accompanying surface lows for the middle of this week, as well as this weekend. For Days 3-4 (Tuesday-Wednesday), sustained westerly surface winds exceeding 25 mph should be common, with a considerable dip in RH expected by afternoon peak heating both days. Some questions remain on Day 3 (Tuesday) whether RH can dip below 15 percent on a widespread basis, with Critical probabilities remaining at 40 percent. However, 70 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained on Day 4 (Wednesday) across far West Texas into the Trans Pecos region, where guidance consensus shows sustained surface winds potentially reaching 30 mph at times, coinciding with 10-15 percent RH. 10h fuels should continue to cure given an ongoing exceptional drought, no forecast rainfall, and multiple preceding days of warm, dry, and/or windy conditions, supporting wildfire-spread potential given favorable meteorological surface conditions. Thereafter, the next chance for appreciable wildfire spread will be around Day 7 (Saturday) across far western Texas. The lack of rainfall should continue to support the curing of fuels across this region as another mid-level trough and surface cyclone approach, supporting dry westerly downslope surface flow across the region. 40 percent Critical probabilities have been introduced to account for dry and windy conditions poised to overspread dry fuels. ..Squitieri.. 02/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more