MD 0211 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 45...46... FOR GULF COASTAL AREAS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0211 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...Gulf coastal areas of Mississippi...Alabama...and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 45...46... Valid 152040Z - 152215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 45, 46 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat, including a few tornadoes, may develop along portions of the Gulf Coast if storms can continue developing along the shoreline. Tornado Watch expansions may be needed over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells have developed along the LA/MS border and continue to track northeast with a tornado threat. However, storms continue to develop southward near Lake Pontchartrain, and as deep-layer ascent continues to increase over the Gulf Coast region, additional storms may develop along the shoreline. The MOB VAD has shown a slight but steady increase in hodograph size and curvature through the afternoon, with 0-3 km SRH approaching 600 m2/s2. Given rich Gulf moisture and associated buoyancy, the potential exists for tornadoes and damaging gusts if a sustained supercell structure can materialize. Should this scenario become apparent, ongoing Tornado Watches 45-46 may need to be expanded to the Gulf Coast. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 30408965 30878852 31178766 31248688 30888662 30468686 30268732 30208817 30228894 30198925 30408965 Read more

WW 0047 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW MSL TO 20 SSE BNA TO 35 SSE BWG. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 47 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-051-055-061-087-103-111-117-127- 133-137-141-149-159-169-175-177-185-189-152140- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS FRANKLIN GILES GRUNDY JACKSON LINCOLN MACON MARSHALL MOORE OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH TROUSDALE VAN BUREN WARREN WHITE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0046 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 46 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-007-009-013-015-021-023-025-033-035-037-043-047-049-051- 055-057-059-063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-085-089-091-093-095- 099-101-103-105-107-115-117-119-121-125-127-129-131-133- 152140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON CHOCTAW CLARKE COLBERT CONECUH COOSA CULLMAN DALLAS DEKALB ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE LOWNDES MADISON MARENGO MARION MARSHALL MONROE MONTGOMERY MORGAN PERRY PICKENS ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON WILCOX WINSTON MSC039-041-111-131-153-152140- Read more

WW 0045 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW MSY TO 35 E GWO TO 40 NNE TUP. ..GRAMS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 45 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-063-091-093-095-103-105-117-152140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION LIVINGSTON ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC007-017-019-023-025-031-035-057-061-065-067-069-073-075-077- 079-081-087-091-095-099-101-103-105-109-113-117-121-123-127-129- 141-147-155-159-152140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATTALA CHICKASAW CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON FORREST ITAWAMBA JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LEAKE LEE LOWNDES MARION MONROE NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0304 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, may continue into this evening. The severe risk should spread across eastern Mississippi through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...20z Update... Dangerous tornado outbreak is ongoing and expected to continue this evening over the Southeast. The main change for the 20z outlook was to expand the categorical High Risk a bit over southwestern AL and southern MS, and trim out the severe areas west. A squadron of intense tornadic supercells will continue east/northeast over eastern MS, and much of western AL this afternoon and into the evening. The strongest low-level theta-E advection is occurring across southeastern MS and west/southwestern AL. Strong ascent and intense low-level shear from a 60-70 kt low-level jet should continue to focus a nearly optimal supercell/tornado environment over this area through this evening. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible late this evening over eastern AL and western GA. Strong shear will continue the risk for tornadoes along with damaging gusts. Over northern AL and southern TN, widespread convection has resulted in a messy storm mode with embedded supercell structures. A strong meso low (994 mb) will continue northeast along the MS River Valley supporting impressive low-level shear (0-1 km SRH of 250-500 m2/s2) despite the less favorable thermodynamics. Tornadoes (some strong) and numerous damaging wind gusts are possible with the embedded supercells and bowing segments as a more linear storm mode should begin to emerge through this evening. ..Lyons.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Within the Southern High Plains, some locally critical conditions will be possible near the Edwards Plateau. This risk looks to remain too localized to include Critical probabilities at this time. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Sunday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains and the northern Plains. The upper trough currently amplifying across the southern CONUS is expected to quickly translate eastward towards the southern Appalachians by mid-day Sunday with building surface high pressure across the southern Plains in its wake. Increasing westerly winds across the central and northern Rockies associated with an approaching upper ridge will promote a downslope flow regime across the central/northern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Dry, but relatively quiescent conditions are expected across much of the southern Plains where widespread fire activity has been observed over the past 24 hours. However, areas of breezy conditions are possible across the Trans Pecos region of southwest TX Sunday afternoon where gradient winds may increase to around 15-20 mph. Very dry fuels combined with RH values in the teens to low 20s should support areas of elevated fire weather conditions from far southeast NM into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions of southwest TX. ...Central/northern Plains... A westerly downslope flow regime is expected to develop across eastern WY/MT into adjacent portions of NE and the Dakotas by Sunday afternoon as an upper ridge builds into the northern Rockies. Dry/breezy conditions are expected with 15-20 mph winds and RH minimums in the teens to low 20s. Although some areas have recently seen rainfall per MRMS estimates, dry/windy conditions on Saturday should support sufficient drying of fine fuels to support at least a low-end fire weather concern Sunday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Discussion... A quiescent pattern for severe potential should return to the CONUS on Monday. Low-probability thunder may linger during the first couple hours of the period Monday morning across the NC Outer Banks and a sliver of southeast FL before entirely shifting off the coast. In the West, a broad upper trough will move onshore and should amplify amid multiple embedded shortwave impulses. Cool mid-level temperatures should aid in scant to meager buoyancy, with low-topped convection peaking in scattered coverage during the afternoon to early evening. Some of this activity should produce sporadic lightning, most probable in parts of the Central Valley of CA. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage appears very isolated from the northern CA/southern OR coast into the Great Basin. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0102 PM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Southeast Louisiana Western Georgia Middle and Eastern Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is ongoing across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which will be long-track and violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will exist over Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Widespread damaging winds and several tornadoes also appear likely across middle and eastern Tennessee through tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO LOWER MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging wind swaths and a few tornadoes will be the primary threats from Sunday morning through dusk across a broad portion of the East. ...FL/GA/SC... A broken band of thunderstorms should be ongoing at 12Z Sunday from parts of north FL into central SC. This activity should be in an overall weakening state, as the primary surface cyclone becomes well displaced from this region and the band outpaced/overturned the central Gulf Coast/Deep South instability plume overnight. Still, favorable low-level shear will linger, coincident with at least mid 60s surface dew points, to warrant a downstream wind/tornado threat into early afternoon. The trailing portion of the convective band will encounter further diminishing/more veered low-level flow southward in the FL Peninsula. This should result in more of a damaging wind/isolated hail threat deeper into the afternoon. ...NC to Mid-Atlantic States... Lower-topped convection should be ongoing across parts of the central/southern Appalachians vicinity at 12Z Sunday. Destabilization ahead of this activity should be muted by weaker mid-level lapse rates and substantially less boundary-layer heating relative to the FL Peninsula. But with very strong low-level shear/winds, hodographs will remain enlarged for a tornado threat. The deep-layer meridional wind profile should tend to mostly parallel convective bands, which may temper a more widespread damaging wind threat. There is some signal in guidance at a secondary round of late afternoon to early evening redevelopment into the Piedmont with boundary-layer recovery in the wake of early-day activity. Confidence in this scenario is low as stronger forcing for ascent may be displaced north. As such, a broad level 2-SLGT risk for wind/tornado remains appropriate at this juncture. ...Alleghany Plateau/Upper OH Valley... The northern portion of a thin, low-topped convective band may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday. Low-level shear will initially be extreme ahead of it, but surface-based instability should be scant at most through late morning. As such, a conditional, low-probability wind/tornado threat appears warranted. Isolated to scattered cellular convection may form later along the north/south-oriented cold front trailing from the primary surface cyclone advancing from Lake Huron into Quebec. Low-level winds will be veered ahead of the front, substantially curtailing low-level shear compared to mid-morning. But strong deep-layer shear and a well-mixed boundary layer could foster locally strong gusts and small hail. ..Grams.. 03/15/2025 Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE MLU TO 15 ENE MEM. ..LYONS..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC009-069-079-151840- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES MSC093-107-151840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MARSHALL PANOLA TNC069-071-109-151840- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARDEMAN HARDIN MCNAIRY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected today across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat will begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi through this afternoon, spread across Alabama this afternoon into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. ...Southeast into the Tennessee Valley... No changes have been made to the High Risk area across the Southeast. Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across southeast LA into MS, along and east of a convectively reinforced baroclinic zone. A very favorable parameter space exists across the Southeast for severe thunderstorms, which will likely help maintain ongoing supercells and small line segments. Current expectations are for the most favorable strong to intense tornado environment to continue across MS this afternoon and evening, with moderate instability and ample low-level and deep-layer shear already in place. The tornado threat will spread eastward into AL and southern TN this afternoon and evening, and eventually into parts of the FL Panhandle, western/central GA, and eastern TN overnight in tandem with an ejecting southern-stream shortwave trough and related intense low-level jet. Both large hail and severe/damaging winds will also be a threat with these supercells. Upscale growth into one or more bowing line segments will be possible, especially with northward extent into the TN Valley and eastward into GA, where potentially numerous to widespread severe/damaging winds may occur. Reference Mesoscale Discussions 199, 200, and 201 for more information on the near-term severe threat across the Southeast. ...Southern Appalachians... As an upper trough pivots east into the region late tonight, strong low-level warm/moist advection will contribute to a gradually destabilizing airmass. Despite weaker buoyancy with eastward extent over northeast GA into the western Carolinas, very intense low to mid-level flow will aid in maintaining a risk for a few supercells and line segments into a more limited thermodynamic environment. This will potentially yield a risk for damaging gusts and an isolated tornado threat through early Sunday morning. ...Ohio Valley into Southern Great Lakes... Guidance maintains a belt of strong 850 mb flow through midday, before an intensification of the northern periphery of a low-level jet extending from the central Gulf Coast into the Mid South overspreads the region. Uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude of destabilization behind earlier convective activity, and its resultant effects on severe potential. Most guidance generally shows only weak buoyancy (at or below 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), but some airmass recovery in the wake of earlier thunderstorms may occur over IN into OH and vicinity. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR LOWER TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Outlook. Morning visible satellite shows clear skies across the southern Texas Critical area, which will promote surface heating and mixing. This is observed by surface observations showing gusts 30-40 mph to be common and relative humidity around 15-20 percent across south central Texas to the Edwards Plateau and west to the Mexico border. Critical conditions are expected to continue through the afternoon. Further north, some mid-level cloud cover is observed across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, with clearing to the north in Kansas. Temperatures across this region are cooler, with relative humidity around 30-40 percent. Temperatures are expected to warm across this region with deeply mixed profiles promoting relative humidity reductions to around 15 percent for Critical fire weather conditions by the afternoon. ..Thornton.. 03/15/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected across portions of the southern High Plains this afternoon. A robust surface low is evident in 05 UTC surface observations across the central Plains with a broad cold front pushing southward across KS into northwest OK and the TX Panhandle. This feature is expected to gradually push into central TX through the afternoon as a secondary surface low deepens over the mid/lower MS Valley. 15-25 mph winds are expected in both the pre- and post-frontal regimes along with dry conditions. ....Southern Texas... Westerly gradient winds are expected to strengthen to 15-25 mph across a broad swath of southern TX this afternoon. The passage of a mid-level jet max should coincide well with peak heating/maximum boundary-layer mixing, resulting in frequent gusts of 30-40 mph (and possibly as high as 50 mph). An influx of drier air combined with daytime heating will promote widespread RH reductions into the teens. Given antecedent dry fine fuels widely dispersed across the region, widespread elevated fire weather conditions are expected with critical conditions likely from the Edwards Plateau to the middle/lower TX Coastal Plain. ...Central Plains... Recent MRMS rainfall estimates show patchy areas of wetting rainfall have fallen across western KS into parts of northwest OK over the past 24 hours. This rainfall will likely not overly impact fuel status of finer grassy fuels, which are expected to quickly dry amid the breezy and dry post-frontal conditions this afternoon. Despite an influx of cooler air, very low dewpoints coupled with daytime heating should promote RH values into the teens to low 20s. Ensemble guidance continues to show a reasonably strong signal for 15-20 mph winds from southern NE into OK/TX with an embedded swath of 20-25 mph winds probable across central KS to northwest OK where rainfall was minimal over the past 24 hours. Additionally, much of the Critical risk area has either observed wildfire activity or received lightning strikes yesterday (Friday), which may locally heighten the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0196 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0196 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of western Minnesota Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 151247Z - 151645Z SUMMARY...Periods of heavy snow (perhaps exceeding 1 inch/hr at times), along with blizzard conditions are possible this morning. Winds may sustain over 35 mph (with higher gusts), with reduced visibility possible in spots. DISCUSSION...A stacked cyclone continues to occlude while drifting toward Ontario. As this cyclone continues to track northward, continued CAA will keep the column below freezing while 850-700 mb frontogenesis will continue to support adequate convergence/lift for efficient dendrite production over central MN, which will pivot around the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone and support moderate to heavy snowfall over western MN this morning. Strong surface isallobaric flow across the northwestern cyclone quadrant may coincide with heavier snowfall rates (perhaps exceeding 1 inch/hr at times), resulting in periodic blizzard conditions. Visibility may reduce to or less than a quarter mile in the heavier snow bands. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 43689599 44359634 46259622 47759612 48179522 48209447 47989429 47379411 46659425 45709440 44679466 43889488 43689509 43689599 Read more

MD 0197 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 44... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 0197 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0804 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 Areas affected...portions of central Louisiana into northern Mississippi and extreme southwestern Tennessee Concerning...Tornado Watch 44... Valid 151304Z - 151430Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 44 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 44. The potential for tornadoes (some strong) will only increase into the morning hours. Severe wind and hail will also be possible. DISCUSSION...Deep-moist convection continues to increase in coverage and intensity along a baroclinic zone characterizing the northwestern bounds of the free warm sector. Recently, storms along the southern extent of this convective band have developed supercell characteristics, with pronounced low-level mesocyclones noted via KSHV radar data. 12Z JAN and LCH soundings show mid-level lapse rates above 8.5 C/km, along with rich low-level moisture and large, curved/elongated hodographs already in place, which is highly supportive of tornadic supercells. Through the morning hours, increased boundary-layer heating and ascent from the approaching upper trough should only boost shear/buoyancy further, resulting in a continued increasing severe threat. All severe hazards will be possible, including strong tornadoes, particularly with the more sustained supercells with unimpeded inflow. ..Squitieri.. 03/15/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 31879333 32919243 34569055 35398920 35328852 34458835 33768881 32679047 32019130 31449182 31209250 31879333 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0840 AM CDT SAT MAR 15 2025 ...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the Deep South and Tennessee Valley today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Western Georgia Tennessee The Florida Panhandle * HAZARDS... Numerous tornadoes, several intense and long track Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Scattered large hail, some baseball size * SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is expected across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected this afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late today into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for Read more

WW 0044 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW SHV TO 50 S ELD TO 40 NNE ELD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0197 ..SQUITIERI..03/15/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC003-011-017-041-043-139-151440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY BRADLEY CHICOT DESHA DREW UNION LAC009-013-021-025-029-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069- 073-079-081-083-085-107-111-115-123-127-151440- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE AVOYELLES BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA CONCORDIA DE SOTO EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE TENSAS UNION VERNON WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 44 TORNADO AR LA MS TN 151055Z - 151800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 44 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Arkansas Northern and central Louisiana Northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee * Effective this Saturday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity in an extensive band from northern Louisiana to southeast Arkansas, northern Mississippi and southwest Tennessee through the morning. The storm environment will become more favorable for tornadic supercells with time, including the potential for a few strong (EF2-EF3) tornadoes later this morning. Otherwise, large hail of 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter and thunderstorm gusts of 60-75 mph will also be possible. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Natchitoches LA to 35 miles northeast of Tupelo MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24045. ...Thompson Read more