SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor adjustments were made to thunder chances across the western US. Otherwise, the D1 Convective Outlook needs no further updates. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the Elevated delineation to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Feb 7 19:11:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., Sunday through Sunday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate further amplification to the mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, including the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high within building ridging, near the Gulf of Alaska. Downstream, mid-level troughing may dig through British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest, and, in lower latitudes, also progress eastward toward Baja, but little change is forecast to the confluent westerlies across the interior U.S. into offshore western Atlantic through this period. Broad mid/upper ridging, centered over the subtropical latitudes of northern Mexico into the southwestern Atlantic, is likely to maintain considerable influence as far north as the central Great Plains through the southern Mid Atlantic. The shallow southern periphery of a cold intrusion to the lee of the Rockies is forecast to stall across the Gulf coastal plain, undercutting a continuing anticyclonic return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. It appears that associated low-level moisture will continue to contribute to weak potential instability, both south of and above the cold surface-based air. However, forecast soundings indicate that this will remain generally capped by warm, dry layers aloft, beneath the mid/upper ridging. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley Saturday into Saturday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific into western North America, and models continue to indicate further amplification into and through this period. This includes building mid-level ridging across the northeastern Pacific through Alaska, and subsequent digging downstream troughing across and to the lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Otherwise, the confluent downstream westerlies are forecast to remain generally zonal across the interior U.S. through offshore western Atlantic, between broad ridging, centered over the subtropic latitudes of northern Mexico into the western Atlantic, and a broad vortex, centered near the northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes. At mid/upper levels, the subtropical ridging may maintain considerable influence as far north as the southern into central tier of the United States. Within the confluent regime across the northern tier of the U.S., it still appears that at least a couple of short wave perturbations might loosely consolidate into larger-scale, but still low-amplitude, troughing across the Great Lakes into Northeast by late Saturday through Saturday night. This is forecast to be trailed by a similar perturbation accelerating from the Great Basin into north central Great Plains. Beneath and just to the south of this regime, another cold surface ridge is likely to be in the process of building to the lee of the northern Rockies by early Saturday, reinforcing cold air already entrenched to the east of the Rockies. It still appears that the shallow southern periphery of this cold air will initially be in the process of eroding beneath a continuing south to southwesterly return flow across the Ozark Plateau into Ohio Valley. However, models indicate that associated low-level warming and moistening will largely remain confined beneath dry, warming layers farther aloft, as the reinforcing cold intrusion progresses south (and reaches the Gulf Coast state by 12Z Sunday). ...Ohio Valley... A pre-frontal corridor of boundary-layer warming and moistening near a developing frontal wave may contribute to weak potential instability, coincident with strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, across the southern/eastern Kentucky vicinity by late Saturday afternoon. However, based on latest model output, it remains unlikely that forcing for ascent within the warm sector will be sufficient to overcome inhibition. Weak elevated thunderstorm development still appears possible Saturday through Saturday night, within an initial lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection regime near/north of the Ohio River into Allegheny Plateau and, later, near/south of the Ohio River along the undercutting southward advancing cold front. ..Kerr.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with adjustments made to the existing fire weather highlights to reflect the latest model guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 02/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1017 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Progressive largely zonal mid/upper-level flow will exist over the CONUS, with amplifying shortwave troughs from the northern Intermountain West to northern Plains, as well as over the coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California. Prevalent high pressure from the Midwest to coastal Southeast will considerably limit thunderstorm potential through tonight. Potential exceptions today include the possibility of a few lightning flashes across parts of Georgia and South Carolina near/north of the remnant front, but overall potential will remain limited (near 10 percent). Isolated lightning flashes could also occur across southern Idaho, northern Utah, and western Wyoming. Related to the amplifying shortwave trough, strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could yield a few lightning flashes through early afternoon, prior to the shortwave trough exiting the region. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Predominantly zonal upper flow is currently in place across the CONUS as one shortwave trough progresses through the Canadian Maritimes and another moves through the Pacific Northwest. High surface pressure is expected the shift eastward across the OH Valley in the wake of the Canadian Maritime shortwave. A weakening cold front exists between the more continental air associated with this high and the modified maritime airmass from central TX across the Southeast. Relatively warm low/mid-level temperatures should preclude the development of deep convection along this front. Western portions of this front will likely begin returning northward this afternoon amid lowering surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains. Farther west, the shortwave trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is forecast to progress eastward through the northern Rockies and into the northern Plains. This progression will help induce the aforementioned lower surface pressure across the central High Plains/central Plains, while also encouraging a southward/southeastward surge of colder air across the northern Plains. The only thunderstorm potential across the CONUS today is expected over southern ID, northern UT, and western WY as the Pacific Northwest shortwave trough moves through the region. Strong forcing for ascent and cold mid-level temperatures could result in a few lightning flashes from now until the early afternoon when the wave exits the region. ..Mosier.. 02/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Fairly zonal flow across the CONUS will evolve into broadly cyclonic flow as a western trough begins to amplify by the middle of next week. This trough will be the focus of severe weather potential from the Sabine Valley into the central Gulf Coast region by late in the week. Another western trough is forecast by late next week. Uncertainty in the timing and evolution of these features is high, however. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... Model variability remains rather high for the Tuesday through Thursday period. While there is general consensus between the GFS/ECMWF that a western upper trough will be amplifying, the shortwave trough that ultimately ejects into the southern Plains is out of phase between the two models--the ECMWF being the more progressive/intense of the two. These differences lead to timing and magnitude variability of the surface low and northward advancement of Gulf moisture. Pattern-wise, upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints currently reside in the Gulf and the upcoming cold front this Sunday/Monday is not expected to push that moisture south. Some increase in severe potential would be expected as the upper trough approaches. At present, model and ML guidance would suggest the greatest severe potential would exist on Wednesday or Thursday depending on the timing/evolution of the upper wave. Confidence remains too low for severe probabilities, but model trends will continue to be monitored. By next Friday, models are currently in agreement that another western trough will amplify. Even with this consistency, the frontal intrusion into the Gulf prior to this secondary trough casts doubt on the quality of moisture return this far in advance. Uncertainty is too high for highlights. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not anticipated across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Upper-level flow to begin the period will remain quasi-zonal. A strong upper-level shortwave trough will exit the Mid-Atlantic/southern New England Coast. In the wake of this trough, surface high pressure and cold air will progress southward to near the Gulf Coast. Strong westerly upper-level winds will persist from the Divide into Mid-Atlantic/southern New England. By Monday morning, the initial stages of upper-level flow amplification in the West will occur as a southern stream shortwave trough moves into the Baja region. With the surface cold front pushing farther south, warm/moist air will become farther removed from what will generally remain weak/nebulous upper-level forcing. A weak signal for elevated instability within a zone of weak low-level warm advection and upper-level divergence exists in the ArkLaTex/southeast Oklahoma vicinity. Lightning coverage would be well below 10% should any occur. Elsewhere, stable conditions should preclude thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0126 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Breezy, hot, and dry conditions are expected again Saturday across portions of central, western, and southern NM, and a small area of west TX ahead of an approaching cold front. The greatest wind speeds (20-25 mph) will likely remain confined to the higher terrain of west-southwestern NM Saturday afternoon (along and west of the Black Range), where localized critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Further east and south near the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains, a shorter duration of critical wind speeds is anticipated. Relative humidity across this entire region will also drop into the low teens to single digits by late Saturday afternoon, while ERCs approach or exceed the 80-90th seasonal percentiles. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NM AND THE FAR WESTERN TX PANHANDLE... ...Synopsis... West to southwesterly surface flow should quickly increase throughout the day Friday across NM, with sustained speeds exceeding 25 mph for some locations. A lee surface trough is expected to deepen as a mid-level shortwave trough enters the Intermountain West, and strengthening orthogonal mid-level flow persists across the Rockies. The resulting surface pressure gradient, and a deeply mixed boundary layer (little to no cloud cover expected), will support these breezy conditions. In addition, unseasonably warm temperatures and single-digit relative humidity combined with the aforementioned winds should result in several hours of critical fire weather conditions. A low-level thermal ridge will likely extend from the Upper Trans-Pecos northeastward through the TX Panhandle by Friday afternoon. Just west of this ridge, from the far western TX Panhandle into portions of central and northeastern NM, is where the strongest winds and lowest RH are anticipated. Due to a lack of appreciable rainfall over several days, fuels across this region are becoming increasingly receptive to fire. This appears especially true within the higher terrain of NM and TX. As a result, the Critical area was extended southward to include the Sacramento Mountains. ..Barnes.. 02/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 AM CST Fri Feb 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Shallow convective showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Saturday. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude upper-level ridging will develop in the wake of departing trough across the Great Lakes into the Mid-South. Within the central Plains, another shortwave trough is expected to intensify as it progresses eastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday morning. At the surface, the initial stages of warm advection into the Tennessee Valley will take place late Friday night and will continue through mid/late Saturday afternoon. Modest moisture (mid/upper 50s F dewpoints) may reach as far north as the Ohio Valley region. By Saturday evening, a strong cold front will then push into Mid-South/Southeast into Sunday morning. A modest surface cyclone will develop in response to the secondary upper trough and progress along the surface boundary. ...Ohio/Tennessee Valleys... Models continue to show variability in the strength of the surface cyclone and, consequently, the degree of warm/moist advection into the regions. Despite these differences, there is likely to be some remnant, shallow cold air across Kentucky/Tennessee and adjacent areas. Cloud cover will mute surface heating, but offsetting warm advection should allow areas of low 60s F temperatures south of the Ohio River. The thermodynamic environment is expected to be rather weak. The general model consensus would suggest no more than 100 J/kg of MUCAPE is possible. The primary driver of convection will be the cold front where shallow convective showers are probable. Convective depth will be limited by lingering warm air aloft and lightning production will be minimal to isolated. Even with these limitations, 40-50 kts of flow at 850 mb could allow for isolated stronger wind gusts within locally deeper convection. Given the remaining uncertainties and expected sparse coverage of marginally stronger activity, severe potential still appears low. Near and north of the Ohio River, convection should remain elevated with similar low/isolated potential for lightning. ..Wendt.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 PM CST Thu Feb 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through Friday night. ...Coastal NC/southeast VA... Ongoing convection across the southern Appalachians and adjacent Piedmont will subside as storms progress east towards the southeast VA to NC coast through sunrise, amid a meagerly buoyant air mass. There is a low probability that this activity may linger in the 12-13Z period, before entirely vacating the coast. ...Southern ID/northern UT/western WY... A lower-amplitude shortwave impulse will move across the northern Great Basin towards the north-central Rockies by afternoon. Downstream of this wave, warm-moist advection near 700 mb beneath cooling mid/upper-level temperatures may foster scant buoyancy later this morning into the afternoon. Despite marginal temperatures for mixed-phase parcels, very isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Snake River Plain and northeast Great Basin vicinity. ..Grams/Barnes.. 02/07/2025 Read more

WW 0004 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CSV TO 45 SSW LOZ TO 35 SSW LOZ TO 25 S LOZ TO 30 SE LOZ TO 30 S JKL. ..EDWARDS..02/07/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 4 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-095-133-193-070240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL HARLAN LETCHER PERRY TNC001-009-013-025-029-057-059-063-067-073-089-093-105-129-145- 151-155-163-173-179-070240- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BLOUNT CAMPBELL CLAIBORNE COCKE GRAINGER GREENE HAMBLEN HANCOCK HAWKINS JEFFERSON KNOX LOUDON MORGAN ROANE SCOTT SEVIER SULLIVAN UNION WASHINGTON VAC105-169-195-720-070240- Read more

WW 4 SEVERE TSTM KY TN VA 070030Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 4 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 730 PM EST Thu Feb 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kentucky Northeast Tennessee Extreme Southwest Virginia * Effective this Thursday night from 730 PM until Midnight EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered intense storms will track southeastward across the watch area for the next few hours, capable of hail and damaging winds. A tornado or two is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles north northeast of Hot Springs NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more