MD 0088 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5... FOR SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...southern into central Mississippi into western and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 5... Valid 121948Z - 122315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather will increase through the afternoon and into early evening. A few tornadoes appear likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery as well as surface observations show the continued northward movement of the warm front across southern MS and AL. Gusty southerly winds over 30 kt exist over much of eastern LA, indicative of boundary-layer mixing and strengthening low-level jet. This air mass will spread north through evening. Notable pressure falls exist over southern MS and into southwest AL, just ahead of a rash of developing storms. Given 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and destabilizing air mass, these cells are likely to become supercellular, with an increasing threat of tornadoes as cells mature. A strong tornado or two is possible as storms move in concert with the warm front with access to both large low-level shear and favorable instability. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31398831 31078938 31049064 31139085 31369094 31769082 32319041 32648969 32868883 32908804 32628764 32218763 31798773 31398831 Read more

MD 0089 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 122029Z - 130030Z SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio over the next several hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03-0.05 inch/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Precipitation associated with the warm advection branch of a deepening mid-level wave is beginning to overspread parts of central to eastern IN and southwest OH where surface temperatures remain near or below freezing. Recent upper-air analysis and forecast soundings show a weak warm layer aloft at around 850 mb atop of sub-freezing surface temperatures that should support some melting/re-freezing of hydrometeors. The weak warm nose will likely initially support a mix of sleet and freezing rain within a narrow swath from eastern IN into west/northwest OH where there is favorable overlap of sub-freezing surface temperatures and warm temperatures aloft. With time, continued warming near the 850 mb level should promote a gradual transition to primarily freezing rain through late afternoon/early evening. Freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.05 in/hour appear probable based on recent high-res guidance that has captured surface temperature trends well. ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40958148 40708156 40588177 40518214 40398297 40268354 40108408 39918451 39808490 39798545 39888585 40048604 40408605 40808569 41268487 41428415 41508361 41478294 41428237 41318194 41118162 40958148 Read more

MD 0086 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina into western and central Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 121658Z - 122200Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain is expected through the late afternoon and evening hours in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains as precipitation advances northeastward. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show a swath of stratiform precipitation associated with a broad mid-level warm frontal zone spreading northeastward from northern MS/AL and TN into the western Carolinas. Downstream from the precipitation swath, surface temperatures in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains from far northwest NC into western and central VA remain below freezing. 12 UTC soundings from GSO and RNK sampled a 4-7 C warm nose at about 850 mb that will remain in place through the remainder of the day (if not strengthen) as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. A combination of very limited daytime heating, continued cold air damming along the terrain, and minimal surface heat flux (due to recent ice accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch) will maintain a pocket of sub-freezing surface temperatures and support freezing rain as the primary precipitation type. The next round of freezing rain will likely begin as the upstream precipitation swath spreads northeast through the afternoon hours. Recent high-res solutions, which have captured overall precipitation trends well, suggest an onset time of around 18 UTC for far northwest NC and far southwest VA, and a later onset time of around 20 UTC for western/central VA. Persistent warm advection ahead of a deepening low to the west will support the potential for multiple rounds of freezing rain through late afternoon and into the evening hours with freezing rain rates generally between 0.03 to 0.06 inches/hour (though locally higher rates appear possible). ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36947909 36727990 36428065 36198128 36008162 35958194 36228196 36598173 36928147 37488094 38307981 38407939 38467876 38287787 37997739 37677727 37387739 37177793 37077854 36947909 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-122240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC041-065-107-122240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC021-023-029-031-035-039-041-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-111-121-123-127-129-131-149-153- 122240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 6 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 121930Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 6 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Eastern Louisiana Southern and South-Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Conditions favorable for rotating storms capable of tornadoes and damaging winds will increasingly expand north-northeastward across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mc Comb MS to 90 miles northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW POE TO 10 W ESF TO 20 SSW MLU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088 ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-005-007-009-011-019-025-029-033-037-039-045-047-051- 053-055-057-059-063-071-075-077-079-087-089-091-093-095-097-099- 101-103-105-109-113-117-121-125-122140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA EVANGELINE IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LA SALLE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE RAPIDES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE VERMILION WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-037-045-047-059-109-113-147-157-122140- Read more

WW 5 TORNADO LA MS CW 121805Z - 130200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 5 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon within a warm and increasingly moist environment. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur through early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA to Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into western GA. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...20z Update... The prior forecast remain valid with only minor changes to the thunder area over parts of east TX and parts of AR. Multiple bands of convection along the surging cold front over the Sabine Valley should continue to steadily intensify as broad height falls from the advancing trough overspread the western edge of the warm sector characterized by surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s F. These storms should eventually coalesce into a broader QLCS as the front accelerates. 50-60 kt of deep-layer shear will support organization into bowing segments and embedded supercell structures. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes appear likely. Farther east over southern LA, MS and AL, strong low-level warm advection is occurring in the vicinity of an east-west oriented warm front and weak frontal cyclone rapidly lifting north over the southern Gulf Coast. As ascent intensifies with the approach of the upper trough, strong observed pressure falls of 2-3 mb per hour will rapidly advect pristine upper 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints (evident on the 18z LIX sounding) northward. Several bands of convection (including a few supercells) have developed and should continue to intensify through the afternoon. The rapid air mass modification/destabilization will overlap with substantial vertical shear, supporting supercells capable of all hazards, including a strong tornado. The severe threat will likely persist through the evening and overnight hours as the emerging QLCS shifts eastward in the narrowing warm sector over eastern AL and western GA. Despite waning buoyancy, continued advection of near 60 F surface dewpoints and very strong low-level shear (ESRH 300-400 m2/s2) will support the risk for a few tornadoes and damaging wind gusts where the line can stay near-surface based overnight. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Sabine Valley into the Ozarks and Mid-South. Additional isolated storms are possible in the Four Corners vicinity. Severe weather is not currently expected. ...Discussion... A mid-level trough will traverse the Southwest on Friday with persistent lee surface troughing in the southern/central High Plains. This will result in a broad region of strengthening southerly flow across the southern Plains and into the Lower-Mid Mississippi Valley. Initially, moisture return will be above the surface with weak to moderate elevated instability expected Friday night across Arkansas and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. As the low-level jet and isentropic ascent strengthens, elevated thunderstorms are expected, particularly after 06Z. Isolated hail is possible, but forecast instability currently appears too weak for a more widespread large hail threat. Surface based convection is not anticipated as 60F dewpoints are only expected as far north as the AR/LA border by 12Z Saturday with minimal convection expected within the warm sector. Therefore, minimal severe weather threat is expected prior to 12Z Saturday and no Marginal Risk appears warranted. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains unchanged. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Cold surface temperatures accompanying an expansive surface high over the central CONUS will limit fire-weather concerns on Day 2/Thursday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0087 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0087 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...central Louisiana across central and southern Mississippi and into west-central Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 121736Z - 122000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Storms will increase along the cold front near the Sabine River, and near the warm front across Mississippi into Alabama. Scattered supercells are forecast, with several tornadoes possible later today. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a low near the Sabine River with a cold front extending from southeast TX across northern LA/MS. A warm front currently stretches from the surface low eastward across southern MS, AL, and GA. The early day precipitation shield within the warm advection regime continues to lift north, while boundary-layer mixing and pockets of heating develop south of the warm front. Persistent southwest flow with over 40 kt at 850 mb will result in rapid air mass recovery over parts of central/northeast LA into central MS, and a portion of south-central/southwest AL. Initially, storms are expected to develop near or just ahead of the cold front as it moves out of TX and into western LA today. This air mass will continue to destabilize, with strong deep-layer shear and sufficient low-level SRH supporting a wind, tornado, and isolated hail threat. Later this afternoon and more aligned with the diurnal cycle, multiple supercells are expected to develop in the vicinity of the northward-advancing warm front from central/southern MS into western AL. Effective SRH to around 300 m2/s2 through 00Z along with a deep moistening boundary layer along with increasing large-scale ascent ahead of the cold front a suggest a strong tornado or two may occur. Current visible satellite and radar already show deepening convection over southeast LA, and this regime may be the beginnings of the supercell risk as it develops northeastward today. ..Jewell/Guyer.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV... LAT...LON 32898993 33098910 33238832 33278764 33188749 33028732 32608723 32178724 31778749 31578773 31288833 30948914 30449015 30259092 30209196 30139278 30189331 30349359 30639371 31019370 31249358 31809257 32479116 32898993 Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW BPT TO 30 SW POE TO 25 W ESF TO 25 NNW ESF TO 25 SSW MLU TO 15 E MLU. ..JEWELL..01/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...LCH...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 1 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC003-011-021-043-059-079-115-052340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BEAUREGARD CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE RAPIDES VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ...Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible early Thursday morning in parts of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southern Georgia. Damaging winds and brief tornado or two are the primary threats. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough and associated surface low will amplify/deepen across the northeast Thursday morning with a trailing cold front extending southward along the Appalachians and into southeast Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. This front will move off the Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening with high pressure building in across much of the eastern CONUS in its wake. Meanwhile, a strong surface low will approach the northern California/southwest Oregon Coast during the day Thursday. ...Southeast... A line of thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the period from central Georgia and perhaps into South Carolina and southern North Carolina to the Florida Peninsula. By 12Z the greatest severe weather threat will likely be focused across southern Georgia where mid-60s dewpoints are forecast. A strong (50 knot) low-level jet is forecast to be in place at 12Z, but will weaken through the morning as the primary surface low quickly moves farther away to the northeast. During this period in the morning with a strong low-level jet and ample instability, a threat for damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain. This front is expected to move offshore by mid afternoon and thunderstorm intensity will likely have likely waned by this time due to the weakening forcing. ...Northern California... A strong surface low of the northern California coast will result in favorable shear across much of central and northern California tomorrow. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across much of this region with weak instability present. If any pockets of greater (250-500 J/kg) MLCAPE can develop during the day Thursday when shear remains strong, a damaging wind gust or tornado is possible. However, at this time forecast soundings show the greater instability arriving beneath the upper-level low when shear will also be reduced. Therefore, given the lack of overlap between greater instability and shear, no Marginal Risk was added at this time. ..Bentley.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1044 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into Georgia. The main potential is for damaging winds and tornadoes, a few of which could be strong (EF2+). ...Lower Mississippi Valley to Southeast States... As a longwave trough amplifies over the Great Plains, strengthening cyclonically influenced deep-layer southwesterly winds will partially overlie an increasingly moist/unstable northward-shifting warm sector today, with storms expected to steadily increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon especially across parts of Louisiana/Mississippi into Alabama. Early morning analysis features a northward-shifting maritime warm front just inland from, and parallel to, the Gulf coast, with near-70F surface dewpoints becoming increasingly common as of 9am CST/15z from the upper Texas Coast to near the New Orleans Metro and Alabama/Florida border vicinity. Similarly, even prior to the warm front arrival, the KLIX 12z observed sounding sampled a 1.63 inch Precipitable Water and 13.3 g/kg mean mixing ratio, which are in the upper 5-10 percent of daily climo values, illustrating the quality of near-coastal low-level moisture. While multi-layer cloud cover is prevalent north of the warm front, more aggressive heating/isolation is evident in proximity to the Gulf coast with deepening cumuliform development within the warm sector. These trends in concert with short-term guidance suggest that MLCAPE will exceed 1000 J/kg especially across southeast Louisiana, the southern half of Mississippi into southwest Alabama by mid/late afternoon. Expect warm sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. A few strong tornadoes are possible. In particular, short-term guidance advertises a notable increase in southwesterly 850 winds (lowest 1-2km AGL) by early evening (circa 00z) across Mississippi/Alabama, which could enhance potential for supercell sustenance and stronger tornado potential late this afternoon through evening. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front accelerates east-southeastward across the region. The strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to also support the potential for QLCS-related tornadoes as well. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/12/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1012 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TRANS-PECOS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025/ ...Synopsis... Within the base of a large-scale trough shifting eastward from the Rockies into the Plains, a belt of strengthening deep-layer westerly flow will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains this afternoon. ...Texas Trans-Pecos... Diurnal heating and downslope-aided warming/drying will favor modestly deep boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft across portions of the Trans-Pecos during the afternoon. As a result, 15-20 percent RH will develop amid 20-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds (with higher gusts). Given at least modestly receptive fuels here, elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Dry/breezy conditions will extend farther east into portions of central TX; however, recent measurable rainfall atop already marginal fuels will limit fire-weather concerns. Over southern NM, strong westerly surface winds will also support elevated fire-weather conditions, though cooler surface temperatures will limit RH reductions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Feb 12 15:02:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0085 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...SOUTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0085 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0616 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Southern and Central Missouri...South-central Illinois Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 121216Z - 121815Z SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet and snow will be likely this morning across parts of southwest Missouri east-northeastward into south-central Illinois. Precipitation rates could exceed 0.05 inches per hour. DISCUSSION...A mid-level trough is currently analyzed across the southern Rockies. Ahead of the trough, an area of precipitation is ongoing within a zone of increasing large-scale ascent from the eastern portions of the southern Plains into the Ozarks. Surface temperatures are in the lower 30s F across most of Southwest Missouri extending northeastward to the vicinity of St Louis. Several RAP forecast soundings within this corridor have a warm nose in the mid-levels between 700 and 800 mb, with temperatures near 0 C. This warm layer will result in a mix of precipitation types. Freezing rain, sleet and snow will be possible as this area of precipitation spreads northeastward. Precipitation across southeastern Missouri, where the warm nose is more pronounced, will be mostly freezing rain, while further to the north across north-central Missouri, snow is expected to predominant. Locally, heavy snowfall rates will be possible with the more intense bands. ..Broyles/Mosier.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37439445 37949410 38379308 39059130 39499012 39608925 39428885 39218868 38998854 38628858 38198887 37828955 37519019 37129131 36499328 36529407 37059451 37439445 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST LA...SOUTHERN MS...AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL AL... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms will be possible this afternoon through late tonight from the Lower Mississippi Valley into and western Georgia. Primary severe hazards include the risk for a few tornadoes and scattered damaging gusts. ...Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress across east TX, while the broad parent upper troughing shifts eastward through the southern High Plains. Associated warm-air advection is contributing to an expansive area of precipitation from the TX Hill Country through the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. Modified gulf moisture has been slow to return northward ahead of this system, and much of the ongoing showers and thunderstorms are displaced well north of the warm front. Recent surface analysis places a low along this warm front near the CLL vicinity in southeast TX, with the front extending southwestward from this low through the Lower TX coastal plain and eastward into the central Gulf Coast. The 64 degree F isodrosotherm currently delineates this warm front well. General expectation is for this warm front to shift northward throughout the day as the surface low progresses northeastward. Resulting increase in low-level theta-e will help destabilize the airmass despite widespread cloud cover and muted day time heating. Temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 70s with dewpoints in the mid 60s south of the front. This thermodynamic environment will likely result in MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg south of the front from southeast LA across southern MS into southwest AL. Expect open-sector storm development to begin during the early afternoon once convective inhibition erodes. Given the strength of deep-layer shear and expected low-level curvature, some supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes, are possible. The minimal convective inhibition suggests numerous storms could develop, which increases the likelihood for a few mature supercells despite the increased the potential for destructive storm interactions. Given the strength of the low-level shear, a strong tornado is possible. Another round of thunderstorms is anticipated during the evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through the region. Strength of these storms could be modulated by the coverage of the preceding afternoon storms, with greater storm coverage reducing buoyancy. However, current expectation is that persistent low-level theta-e advection will allow for quick airmass recovery, and that strong to severe storms are likely within this convective line. Primary severe risk with the line is damaging gusts, but low-level shear will remain strong enough to support the potent for line-embedded QLCS tornadoes as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/12/2025 Read more