SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 23 23:20:07 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 23 23:20:07 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232032Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gradually increasing convection will pose some risk for gusty winds and hail, possibly reaching severe levels locally. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, though overall limited/marginal nature of the risk expected at this time may preclude the need for WW consideration. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some thinning of the high clouds across southeastern Missouri and into Arkansas, near and ahead of the surface cold front. Resulting, filtered heating has allowed 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve near and ahead of the boundary. This is supporting a gradual increase in convective coverage across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys -- and westward into the Ozarks just to the cool side of the front. This increase includes a small/weakly rotating storm moving eastward across New Madrid County Missouri at this time. Low-level flow remains generally veered across the warm sector, limiting shear in the lowest 1km AGL. Still, 30 to 40 kt west-southwesterlies at mid levels will continue to provide shear sufficient to support organized updrafts. Ascent crossing Missouri/Arkansas at this time -- associated with a mid-level vort max -- suggests some further increase in convective coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. While we will continue to monitor evolution, present indications remain that WW issuance should remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36509225 37129079 37688976 37898795 37858688 36998690 35858800 34489103 34549181 35129232 36509225 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. Latest surface observations and upper-air analyses show the gradual organization of a surface low over northern AR/southern MO. The frontal boundary draped from southeast MO into the upper OH River Valley has begun to stall and is expected to gradually advance north through the evening hours. VWP observations along the frontal zone currently show relatively straight low-level hodographs, but helicity should slowly improve through the 20-03 UTC period as isentropic ascent along the front increases. As a result, the convective environment should become more favorable for organized convection - particularly during the 22-03 UTC period across far southeast MO into far southern IL and western KY. Latest high-res guidance suggests that storms developing along an approaching cold front across north-central AR will intensify as they migrate east towards this zone and should pose the primary severe threat this evening. However, loosely-organized thunderstorms recently developing within the mid-MS River Valley cast some uncertainty onto this scenario due to the potential for overturning portions of the downstream warm sector. This early convection may see improving organization in the coming hours as mid-level flow slowly improves late this afternoon, but limit storm longevity over the past hour cast some uncertainty onto the propensity for severe storms. Regardless, this stalled/warm frontal boundary will still present the best corridor for a more focused severe event through the evening hours, including the potential for a tornado or two. As such, the 2% risk probabilities have been expanded east into western KY. Consideration was given for 15% wind probabilities through this corridor, but confidence in storm mode and coverage remains too limited given the aforementioned concerns. Farther east across southern KY and TN, the forecast remains on track. See MCD #2097 for details regarding recent convective trends. ..Moore.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN ARKANSAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments needed based on recent observations and trends in guidance. Latest surface observations and upper-air analyses show the gradual organization of a surface low over northern AR/southern MO. The frontal boundary draped from southeast MO into the upper OH River Valley has begun to stall and is expected to gradually advance north through the evening hours. VWP observations along the frontal zone currently show relatively straight low-level hodographs, but helicity should slowly improve through the 20-03 UTC period as isentropic ascent along the front increases. As a result, the convective environment should become more favorable for organized convection - particularly during the 22-03 UTC period across far southeast MO into far southern IL and western KY. Latest high-res guidance suggests that storms developing along an approaching cold front across north-central AR will intensify as they migrate east towards this zone and should pose the primary severe threat this evening. However, loosely-organized thunderstorms recently developing within the mid-MS River Valley cast some uncertainty onto this scenario due to the potential for overturning portions of the downstream warm sector. This early convection may see improving organization in the coming hours as mid-level flow slowly improves late this afternoon, but limit storm longevity over the past hour cast some uncertainty onto the propensity for severe storms. Regardless, this stalled/warm frontal boundary will still present the best corridor for a more focused severe event through the evening hours, including the potential for a tornado or two. As such, the 2% risk probabilities have been expanded east into western KY. Consideration was given for 15% wind probabilities through this corridor, but confidence in storm mode and coverage remains too limited given the aforementioned concerns. Farther east across southern KY and TN, the forecast remains on track. See MCD #2097 for details regarding recent convective trends. ..Moore.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... A positive-tilt upper trough will influence the region, with a general increase in relatively strong deep-layer southwesterly winds. Severe storms are possible this afternoon, particularly and initially across the Ozarks including far south-central to southeast Missouri, as well as far northern Arkansas and far southern Illinois. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and a northward-shifting warm front as lingering morning convection along/north of the Ohio River abates and shifts eastward. Increasingly strong deep-layer winds could support some supercells. Some hail is possible given the buoyancy/deep-layer wind profiles, although mid-level lapse rates are not steep. Locally damaging winds may also occur, with some potential for a tornado or two mainly near the warm front. Although uncertainties linger regarding destabilization and the magnitude of the severe risk later this afternoon, portions of southeast Missouri and far southern Illinois will continue to be reevaluated into mid-afternoon (20Z update) for a potential risk upgrade. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow, with a few locally damaging wind gusts a possibility. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks into TN/OH Valleys and southern Appalachians... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a digging trough over eastern MT with it forecast to move into the Dakotas this afternoon. A positive-tilt mid-level trough over the central Plains will move east and deamplify over the MS Valley overnight. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front over the Ozarks before moving to the IL/IN border by early Tuesday morning. Ongoing showers/thunderstorms over southeast MO will continue east into the lower OH Valley this morning and temper destabilization through at least midday. In its wake, models indicate MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg developing from AR into western KY/TN, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. The surface boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection later today with some of the stronger storms potentially capable of a localized severe threat. This activity is expected to diminish during the evening. Farther east, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will probably develop near the ridge tops of the southern Appalachians and adjacent parts of the Carolinas Piedmont this afternoon. Moist low levels coupled with heating will result in around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Some modest multicell organization may occur due to adequately strong upper-level westerly flow. However, weak flow in the lowest 5 km and modest lapse rates will probably temper the overall potential for localized strong gusts (40-55 mph). ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more