SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 131300Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY OF CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and parts of the Central Valley of California. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are the primary threats. ...Southeast... Lead shortwave trough continues to progress through the OH Valley this morning, and is expected to continue northeastward through the Northeast today. Primary surface low associated with this system is over the Lower Great Lakes, but a secondary triple point low exists farther south over west-central GA. A cold front extends southwestward from this secondary low off the AL coast while a warm front extends eastward into the SC Lowcountry before arcing northeastward along the SC and NC coasts. Warm sector between these two features is characterized by temperatures in the upper 60s/low 70s and dewpoints in the 60s. A convective line is currently traversing this warm sector, extending from the MMT vicinity in central SC southwestward to off the FL Panhandle Coast east of ECP. Modest buoyancy precedes this line across the central FL Panhandle and southwest/south-central GA, but weakens with northern extent, with MLCAPE dropping to less than 250 J/kg over southeast GA. In contrast to this modest buoyancy, strong deep-layer shear extends across the warm sector, which is contributing to modest updraft organization within the line and occasional bowing segments. Shear is expected to weaken throughout the day as the parent shortwave trough becomes increasingly displaced north and the mid/low level flow weakens. As a result, the severe potential over this region today will likely be maximized from now through the next 4 to 6 hours while some overlap between the modest buoyancy and strong shear exists. A few strong to severe storms are possible, particularly where the line interacts with the warm front. Damaging gusts will be the primary risk, but a brief line-embedded tornado is possible as well. ...Central Valley of California... Recent satellite imagery depicts an intense cyclone off the West Coast, with a strong shortwave trough moving through its southern periphery towards central CA. This shortwave is forecast to reach the coast later this afternoon, with the ongoing warm-air advection shower activity moving to the east/south as it does. As these showers clear out, temperatures should warm into the upper 50s/low 60s while mid-level cold-air advection results in 500-mb temperatures in the -22 to -25 deg C range. This will support weak airmass destabilization, with modest buoyancy anticipated during the afternoon. This could result in some deeper, more sustained convection. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support transient rotation within any deeper updrafts, yielding a localized wind/brief tornado risk during the late afternoon. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/13/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Sunday...Eastern Virginia/North Carolina... Strong mid-level ascent and a surface low moving through the Mid-Atlantic will bring strong wind fields to eastern Virginia an eastern North Carolina. While the surface cold front is not expected to move through these areas until mid/late morning, it is not clear how much destabilization will occur prior to its passage. Available forecast soundings suggest ample mid/upper-level cloud cover and subsequently cooler surface temperatures. Still, some moisture return ahead of the front may support at least shallow convection. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging winds could occur. Given the uncertainties, severe probabilities will be withheld. Beyond Sunday, expansive surface high pressure and cold air are generally expected across much of the CONUS. Severe potential through the middle of next week appears quite low. Models do hint at a surface cyclone developing along a cold front in the northern Gulf mid to late next week, but severe potential with that feature is far too uncertain this far in advance. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Thu Feb 13 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is expected from East Texas into much of the Southeast and parts of the Mid-South on Saturday. Scattered to numerous damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are the primary threats. Storms are expected from late afternoon through the evening. ...Synopsis... A potent upper-level trough initially within the Four Corners will make quick progress through the Southern Plains and into the lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. A surface low in the southern Plains will track into the Mid-South and eventually the Ohio Valley, all the while deepening. A cold front will move through the Southeast beginning in the late afternoon into Sunday morning. Intense wind fields are expected with ample low-level and deep-layer shear. ...Southeast... Precipitation will likely be ongoing within a zone of warm advection from the Ozarks into the Mid-South vicinity. This activity will have an impact on the exact extent of northward moisture advection and destabilization. The deepening surface low should push some of this activity northward during the day, however. Models are in general agreement that a fairly broad warm sector will remain precipitation free during much of the morning and early afternoon. Temperatures across the warm sector within the mid/upper 70s F appear probable. One of the main sources of uncertainty will be whether afternoon convection can develop in the warm sector. The ECMWF continues to hint at this possibility while the cooler surface temperatures in the NAM limit destabilization. Storms during the afternoon would likely be discrete and there would be an increase in the tornado threat, some of which could be strong. By the late afternoon into the evening, there is high confidence in the cold front beginning to surge south and east. This will coincide with an intensification of the low-level jet. Strong to significant wind gusts would be possible as would QLCS tornadoes. With northward and eastward extent, buoyancy should lessen. However, the 50-65 kt low-level jet would promote a risk of damaging surface gusts even with more muted/shallow convection. ...East Texas/Sabine Valley... A Pacific front will be draped across the region, south of the parent surface low. Uncertainty in storm development in this area is slightly higher than farther east. Strong shear across this boundary would support organized storms, most likely supercellular initially. Damaging winds and tornadoes would be possible. Given the closer proximity to steeper mid-level lapse rates, large hail could also occur. With time and increased mid-level ascent, activity would likely congeal into a line later in the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 02/13/2025 Read more

WW 0007 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE PIB TO 25 W SEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092. ..GRAMS..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-013-025-035-039-041-047-051-053-081-085-087-099- 101-109-113-129-131-130540- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALLAS ELMORE ESCAMBIA LEE LOWNDES MACON MONROE MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC041-111-130540- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GREENE PERRY Read more

WW 7 TORNADO AL MS 130245Z - 130900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 7 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 845 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Southeast Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday night and Thursday morning from 845 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will affect the watch area through the overnight area, in a region of very strong low-level winds. A few of the storms may occasionally pose a risk of tornadoes and damaging wind gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 125 miles west of Evergreen AL to 35 miles south southeast of Auburn AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 6... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW MSY TO 30 ESE TCL. ..WEINMAN..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-129-131-130340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC035-039-041-067-073-111-131-153-130340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE JONES LAMAR PERRY STONE WAYNE GMZ630-631-632-130340- CW Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast through late tonight from southeast Louisiana through Alabama into western Georgia. The primary hazard will be the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes this evening into late tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... Early evening surface analysis places a slow northward-moving warm front over south-central AL. Only minor northward progress is expected through late tonight into east-central AL and adjacent parts of far western GA, which is in agreement with short-term model guidance. A very moist airmass over the northern Gulf of America and coastal plain (south of the warm front) will maintain a fetch of weakly to moderately buoyant air for thunderstorm activity through tonight in the warm sector. The Slidell, LA 00 UTC raob showed 1700 J/kg MLCAPE whereas only 500 J/kg MUCAPE was sampled atop a cool/stable layer at Birmingham, AL. The main severe risk will continue to be supercells capable of tornadoes (possibly strong due to enlarged hodographs) across the Enhanced Risk area and shifting west to east through this evening into the overnight. Damaging gusts will also focus with any bowing line segments or embedded supercells that get engulfed in the eastward shifting band. Farther north, the airmass due to the residual wedge front over northern GA/north-central AL will be slow to modify. As a result, have annotated a small southward shift of tornado/wind probabilities and associated the categorical outlook. ..Smith.. 02/13/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0700 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 130100Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are forecast through late tonight from southeast Louisiana through Alabama into western Georgia. The primary hazard will be the potential for a couple of strong tornadoes this evening into late tonight. ...Central Gulf Coast states into GA... Early evening surface analysis places a slow northward-moving warm front over south-central AL. Only minor northward progress is expected through late tonight into east-central AL and adjacent parts of far western GA, which is in agreement with short-term model guidance. A very moist airmass over the northern Gulf of America and coastal plain (south of the warm front) will maintain a fetch of weakly to moderately buoyant air for thunderstorm activity through tonight in the warm sector. The Slidell, LA 00 UTC raob showed 1700 J/kg MLCAPE whereas only 500 J/kg MUCAPE was sampled atop a cool/stable layer at Birmingham, AL. The main severe risk will continue to be supercells capable of tornadoes (possibly strong due to enlarged hodographs) across the Enhanced Risk area and shifting west to east through this evening into the overnight. Damaging gusts will also focus with any bowing line segments or embedded supercells that get engulfed in the eastward shifting band. Farther north, the airmass due to the residual wedge front over northern GA/north-central AL will be slow to modify. As a result, have annotated a small southward shift of tornado/wind probabilities and associated the categorical outlook. ..Smith.. 02/13/2025 Read more

MD 0091 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 6... FOR SOUTHERN AL AND SOUTHEAST MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0091 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...southern AL and southeast MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 6... Valid 130045Z - 130215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 6 continues. SUMMARY...Strong tornado potential should persist along the surface warm front, expanding east of Tornado Watch 6 into an initially confined portion of southeast Alabama. DISCUSSION...A recently intense supercell from Washington to Clarke County, AL produced a potentially strong tornado near the wavy surface warm front. This boundary arcs more east-northeast ahead of this cell through Wilcox to southern Montgomery County, then pivots southeast into Barbour County per latest surface observations. 00Z LIX sounding sampled a rather favorable supercell environment, amply buoyant with strong deep-layer shear. Enhanced vorticity along the slow-moving front will be most favorable for strong tornado potential into late evening. With neutral mid-level height change through the evening, the number of additional warm-sector supercells may be limited. The northern portion of the tornado threat will wane quickly where surface dew points hold below 65-66 F. ..Grams.. 02/13/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN... LAT...LON 32558718 32638620 32548570 32338555 32008560 31758583 31628630 31548704 31468773 31298854 31208896 31198960 31498960 31818914 32198846 32558718 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W MCB TO 40 WNW PIB TO 40 S CBM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090 ..WEINMAN..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-130140- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX MSC023-031-035-039-041-061-065-067-069-073-075-077-091-101-111- 129-131-153-130140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARKE COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE GREENE JASPER JEFFERSON DAVIS JONES KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE MARION NEWTON PERRY SMITH STONE WAYNE Read more

WW 6 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 121930Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 6 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Eastern Louisiana Southern and South-Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Conditions favorable for rotating storms capable of tornadoes and damaging winds will increasingly expand north-northeastward across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mc Comb MS to 90 miles northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 TO 50 NE LFT TO 40 NNE MCB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090 ..WEINMAN..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103- 105-109-117-121-130140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-130140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL Read more

WW 0005 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE 7R4 TO 50 NE LFT TO 40 NNE MCB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0090 ..WEINMAN..02/13/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...LIX...JAN...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 5 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-103- 105-109-117-121-130140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTISTST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE MSC005-045-047-059-109-113-147-130140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AMITE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER PIKE WALTHALL Read more

WW 5 TORNADO LA MS CW 121805Z - 130200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 5 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern and Central Louisiana Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1205 PM until 800 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon within a warm and increasingly moist environment. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes may occur through early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles southwest of Fort Polk LA to Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A mid-level trough and corresponding surface low will traverse the southern Plains and impinge on the East Coast this weekend, supporting a southward sweeping cold front across the central and eastern CONUS. Downslope flow is likely across western Texas on Day 4/Saturday, with dry and windy conditions expected to overspread curing fuels, warranting the maintenance of 40 percent Critical probabilities. Thereafter, surface low development should take place across the Plains states by early next week with the approach of another mid-level trough, which is poised to sweep across the CONUS by the mid-week time frame. Some modestly dry and breezy conditions are possible across the southern High Plains around Days 6-7 (Monday-Tuesday), before colder conditions overspread the southern U.S. with the approach of another cold front. ..Squitieri.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0088 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 5... FOR SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0088 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...southern into central Mississippi into western and southwestern Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 5... Valid 121948Z - 122315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 5 continues. SUMMARY...The threat for severe weather will increase through the afternoon and into early evening. A few tornadoes appear likely. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery as well as surface observations show the continued northward movement of the warm front across southern MS and AL. Gusty southerly winds over 30 kt exist over much of eastern LA, indicative of boundary-layer mixing and strengthening low-level jet. This air mass will spread north through evening. Notable pressure falls exist over southern MS and into southwest AL, just ahead of a rash of developing storms. Given 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 and destabilizing air mass, these cells are likely to become supercellular, with an increasing threat of tornadoes as cells mature. A strong tornado or two is possible as storms move in concert with the warm front with access to both large low-level shear and favorable instability. ..Jewell.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 31398831 31078938 31049064 31139085 31369094 31769082 32319041 32648969 32868883 32908804 32628764 32218763 31798773 31398831 Read more

MD 0089 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR EASTERN INDIANA INTO NORTHWEST OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0089 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Indiana into northwest Ohio Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 122029Z - 130030Z SUMMARY...A mix of sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread eastern Indiana and northwest Ohio over the next several hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03-0.05 inch/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Precipitation associated with the warm advection branch of a deepening mid-level wave is beginning to overspread parts of central to eastern IN and southwest OH where surface temperatures remain near or below freezing. Recent upper-air analysis and forecast soundings show a weak warm layer aloft at around 850 mb atop of sub-freezing surface temperatures that should support some melting/re-freezing of hydrometeors. The weak warm nose will likely initially support a mix of sleet and freezing rain within a narrow swath from eastern IN into west/northwest OH where there is favorable overlap of sub-freezing surface temperatures and warm temperatures aloft. With time, continued warming near the 850 mb level should promote a gradual transition to primarily freezing rain through late afternoon/early evening. Freezing rain rates between 0.02 to 0.05 in/hour appear probable based on recent high-res guidance that has captured surface temperature trends well. ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND... LAT...LON 40958148 40708156 40588177 40518214 40398297 40268354 40108408 39918451 39808490 39798545 39888585 40048604 40408605 40808569 41268487 41428415 41508361 41478294 41428237 41318194 41118162 40958148 Read more

MD 0086 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR FAR NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1058 AM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 Areas affected...Far northwest North Carolina into western and central Virginia Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 121658Z - 122200Z SUMMARY...Another round of freezing rain is expected through the late afternoon and evening hours in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains as precipitation advances northeastward. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics show a swath of stratiform precipitation associated with a broad mid-level warm frontal zone spreading northeastward from northern MS/AL and TN into the western Carolinas. Downstream from the precipitation swath, surface temperatures in the lee of the Blue Ridge Mountains from far northwest NC into western and central VA remain below freezing. 12 UTC soundings from GSO and RNK sampled a 4-7 C warm nose at about 850 mb that will remain in place through the remainder of the day (if not strengthen) as warm advection increases ahead of an approaching upper disturbance. A combination of very limited daytime heating, continued cold air damming along the terrain, and minimal surface heat flux (due to recent ice accumulations of 0.25 to 0.5 inch) will maintain a pocket of sub-freezing surface temperatures and support freezing rain as the primary precipitation type. The next round of freezing rain will likely begin as the upstream precipitation swath spreads northeast through the afternoon hours. Recent high-res solutions, which have captured overall precipitation trends well, suggest an onset time of around 18 UTC for far northwest NC and far southwest VA, and a later onset time of around 20 UTC for western/central VA. Persistent warm advection ahead of a deepening low to the west will support the potential for multiple rounds of freezing rain through late afternoon and into the evening hours with freezing rain rates generally between 0.03 to 0.06 inches/hour (though locally higher rates appear possible). ..Moore.. 02/12/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX... LAT...LON 36947909 36727990 36428065 36198128 36008162 35958194 36228196 36598173 36928147 37488094 38307981 38407939 38467876 38287787 37997739 37677727 37387739 37177793 37077854 36947909 Read more

WW 0006 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 6 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..02/12/25 ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-023-025-035-047-053-091-097-099-119-129-131-122240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH DALLAS ESCAMBIA MARENGO MOBILE MONROE SUMTER WASHINGTON WILCOX LAC041-065-107-122240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN MADISON TENSAS MSC021-023-029-031-035-039-041-049-061-063-065-067-069-073-075- 077-079-085-089-091-099-101-111-121-123-127-129-131-149-153- 122240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 6 TORNADO AL LA MS CW 121930Z - 130400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 6 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CST Wed Feb 12 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southwest Alabama Eastern Louisiana Southern and South-Central Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 1000 PM CST. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes likely Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Conditions favorable for rotating storms capable of tornadoes and damaging winds will increasingly expand north-northeastward across the region through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles north northwest of Mc Comb MS to 90 miles northeast of Mobile AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Guyer Read more