SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning. This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be removed. ..Darrow.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may be noted early this evening. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region early this evening. Primary corridor for large-scale ascent is now focusing across the upper OH Valley into the northern Middle Atlantic, as LLJ strengthens ahead of the short wave. Widespread precipitation is noted within the warm advection zone but elevated convection is gradually weakening, and only a few flashes of lightning may be noted for the next few hours along the nose of the LLJ. Additionally, shallow weak convection is currently observed along the trailing cold front across KY into TN, but this activity has struggled to attain heights necessary for lightning. This activity will likely remain too shallow the rest of tonight for any meaningful risk for thunderstorms. 01z adjustments will reflect lower confidence in lightning, thus severe probabilities will be removed. ..Darrow.. 02/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A mid-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS early next week, with a more progressive pattern encouraging the passage of multiple mid-level troughs across the CONUS through the remainder of the week to next weekend. Multiple instances of surface cyclone development are possible across the southern High Plains into Lower Mississippi Valley next week, supporting multiple days of dry downslope flow, particularly Days 3-5 (Monday-Wednesday). A cold front will sweep across the southern Plains during the middle of next week, promoting relatively quiescent fire weather conditions up to the weekend. ...Days 3-5 - Southern New Mexico into far western Texas... Surface lee troughing will promote dry and windy conditions across southern New Mexico into extreme western Texas Days 3-4 (Monday-Tuesday). While sustained westerly surface winds may exceed 20+ mph on a widespread basins each afternoon, model guidance still differs somewhat regarding minimum RH. Some members show widespread minimum RH around 15 percent while other members show widespread 20-25 percent RH, with lower RH on a more localized basis. As such, 40 percent Critical probabilities have been maintained. Surface cyclone development is likely across the southern High Plains on Day 5 (Wednesday), which will encourage stronger, drier westerly surface flow across far western Texas during the afternoon compared to previous days. Medium-range guidance consensus shows sustained 25-30 mph westerly winds coinciding with 10-15 percent RH during the afternoon. Given preceding warm and dry days, with an ongoing exceptional drought and no forecast precipitation, fine fuels should support rapid wildfire spread, warranting the introduction of 70 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Feb 8 22:04:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0076 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO FAR NORTHERN WEST-VIRGINIA/MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0076 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...northwest to south-central Pennsylvania into far northern West-Virginia/Maryland Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 082042Z - 090045Z SUMMARY...Snow transitioning to a combination of sleet and freezing rain is expected to overspread northwest to south-central Pennsylvania and far northeast West Virginia/northwest Maryland through the late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour are possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery depicts a swath of stratiform precipitation overspreading OH with an additional precipitation band associated with strengthening isentropic ascent developing across WV into northwest VA/western MD. Over the past hour, surface observations and mPING reports from north-central OH have reported a mixture of freezing rain (with one-hour accumulations up to 0.03 inches) and sleet as surface temperatures wet-bulb down to the upper 20s/low 30s. Slightly cooler conditions are noted downstream across PA where surface temperatures are largely below freezing with dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s. Initially sub-freezing temperatures throughout the column over PA should promote mainly snow as the initial p-type as precipitation begins overspreading the region. With time, strengthening mid-level warm advection will result in a 1-4 C warm nose within the 850-700 mb layer. Concurrently, wet-bulb cooling within the lowest kilometer will maintain sub-freezing temperatures near the surface. These thermodynamic trends will promote a transition from mainly snow to a mix of freezing rain and sleet, similar to recent upstream observations. The propensity for one precipitation type over the other will largely depend on the strength of the warm nose aloft, which varies across recent deterministic solutions leading to limited confidence in coverage of sleet/freezing rain and accumulation amounts. Regardless, moderate to heavy precipitation rates - especially under any embedded convective elements - may result in periods of moderate sleet and/or freezing rain. ..Moore.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 39897939 40447889 40747894 40927924 40927988 41118051 41578058 41908037 42017987 42047877 42037851 41987816 41937785 41567717 41187668 40747624 40427611 40087610 39897628 39777661 39547796 39487856 39467902 39547937 39697946 39897939 Read more

MD 0075 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO FAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN OHIO
Mesoscale Discussion 0075 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Indiana into far southern Michigan and northern Ohio Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 081746Z - 082245Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain will gradually become more widespread across north/northeast Indiana and northern Ohio through the mid to late afternoon hours. Freezing rain rates up to 0.03 in/hour appear possible. DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery shows a swath of stratiform precipitation (with embedded convective elements) becoming established across north-central IN as isentropic ascent increases within the warm conveyor belt of an intensifying mid-level low. This trend is expected to continue through the afternoon hours as warm/moist advection increases amid strengthening 925-700 mb winds. This mid-level warm advection will reinforce a weak warm-nose aloft, and should promote mainly liquid hydrometeors near the surface. Although surface temperatures are currently near freezing across northern IN/OH, dewpoints in the teens to mid 20s suggest that wet-bulb cooling to below freezing is likely after the initial onset of precipitation. This trend is already being observed at a few locations across northern IN with some ASOS/AWOS and mPING reports of freezing rain noted over the past 30-60 minutes. Surface temperatures from the 12 UTC HREF members appear to be running 1-3 F too cold compared to 17 UTC observations, which suggests that freezing rainfall estimates from these members/HREF probabilities may be too bullish. However, more recent deterministic solutions (HRRR/RAP) have captured surface temperature trends well and depict freezing rain rates of around 0.03 in/hour. These solutions also suggest that freezing rain potential may be greatest across northwest to north-central OH through late afternoon with accumulations up to 0.1 - 0.25 inch possible. ..Moore.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX... LAT...LON 41538171 41628148 41638112 41498087 41158069 40818063 40608068 40508089 40388127 40288194 40258286 40288366 40378450 40558534 40838623 41098637 41498633 41818603 41918551 41828398 41718339 41448268 41418245 41478206 41538171 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0111 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow and surface high pressure will persist from the northern Rockies to the Northeast on Monday. Further south and west, a shortwave upper trough offshore from Baja will shift east across northern Mexico and AZ/NM through early Tuesday. This will result in increasing southwesterly flow across the southern High Plains while modest surface lee troughing develops in the vicinity of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Central/West Texas... A stalled front extending west to east from the Edwards Plateau vicinity to the central Gulf coast will not move much during the day. As the upper shortwave trough approaches during the second half of the period, low-level warm advection and some northward progression of the boundary will result in modest boundary-layer moisture spreading into central TX. Some weak elevated instability is evident in forecast soundings between 500-700 mb atop an elevated mixed layer. While vertical shear will be favorable for organized convection, the shallow and weak layer of elevated instability will likely limit severe potential. Nevertheless, isolated to scattered general thunderstorms are possible late Monday into early Tuesday in this warm advection regime ahead of the approaching upper trough. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... There is minimal risk for thunderstorms on Sunday. ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal deep-layer flow will overspread much of the CONUS east of the Divide on Sunday. At the surface, high pressure will build over the Midwest. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward across the Southeast/Gulf coast vicinity. While modest moisture will be in place ahead of the front, weak lapse rates and drying aloft will limit instability. Furthermore, large-scale ascent will be nebulous while deep-layer flow remains parallel to the boundary. As such, limited opportunity for thunderstorm activity is expected. ..Leitman.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1033 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND CUMBERLAND PLATEAU... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today, with a few strong storms possible. ...Ohio Valley/Cumberland Plateau... The region will be glancingly influenced by a modestly amplifying and eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. Modest surface cyclogenesis is expected from the Ozarks quickly northeastward across the lower/middle Ohio River Valley through this evening, with a preceding warm front and a trailing northeast/southwest-extending cold front. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low/mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy. Mid-level temperatures will tend to cool, but most forecast soundings tend to reflect a semi-persistent inversion around 3km AGL/700-650mb, even if surface temperatures aggressive warm into the upper 60s/near 70F and boundary-layer calculated inhibition becomes negligible. Forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and semi-focused mesoscale lift near the surface low. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment, the resulting combination of lift and weak buoyancy should support deepening convective structures potentially capable of lightning production by late afternoon and early evening. Even with minimal buoyancy, some convectively enhanced wind gusts could occur in the presence of very strong west-southwesterly wind profiles, accentuated by 50-65 kt winds around 1 km AGL. Some hail, expected to be mostly sub-severe, could also occur across eastern Indiana and Ohio near/north of the warm front. ..Guyer/Moore.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 02/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Feb 8 13:20:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is possible across parts of the Ohio Valley today. ...Ohio Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave trough currently extends from western ND southwestward through western/central WY. This shortwave is expected to progress quickly eastward throughout the day, moving across the Great Lakes and reaching the Northeast by early tomorrow. In response, the surface low currently over central OK is forecast to rapidly translate northeastward through the Mid MS and OH Valleys, moving along the leading edge of low-level moisture advection. Strengthening warm-air advection throughout the warm sector preceding this low will help moisten the low- to mid-levels enough to support limited buoyancy, particularly as mid-level temperatures cool. Ascent attendant to the approaching shortwave trough will be augmented by both persistent warm-air advection and more mesoscale lift near the surface low. The resulting combination of lift and buoyancy should support deeper convective structures capable of lightning production. Most likely time frame for these deeper storms is between 21Z to 04Z, with the highest coverage anticipated over the Middle and Upper OH Valley. Strengthening mid-level flow is also expected, with a belt of 100+ kt 500-mb winds spreading across the region after 21Z. This could result in rotation and potentially some hail production within any deeper, more persistent updrafts. However, the scant buoyancy is expected to limit the number and duration of any deeper updrafts, with the overall severe potential remaining low as a result. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 02/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather potential is expected to increase by the middle of next week. As the upper trough ejects into the southern/central Plains, moisture that is expected to remain just off the Gulf coast will advect northward Tuesday/Wednesday. At least isolated severe storms could occur from the Sabine Valley into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. Early-day precipitation, stronger forcing displaced to the north, and upper-level winds roughly parallel to the surface boundary reduce confidence in more widespread severe storms. On Thursday, the front will push into the Southeast. Upper-level flow will remain strong over the region, but the mid-level ascent and surface cyclone will move farther north and the warm sector will likely be narrow. By late next week, the cold front is forecast to stall near the Gulf Coast. Another slightly more amplified upper trough will move eastward into the weekend. Depending on the degree of cold air intrusion into the Gulf Thursday/Friday and the strength of the trough/surface cyclone, more robust moisture return will be possible during the weekend. Uncertainty remains high at this juncture as models have not been overly consistent with this signal in the past 1-2 days of runs. Trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Edwards Plateau into central and northeast Texas late Monday night. Severe weather potential is low. ...Synopsis... While strong zonal flow will persist across portions of the Midwest into the Northeast, broadly cyclonic flow will increase across the western U.S. through the period. A shortwave trough will emerge from northern Mexico and eject into West/Central Texas by Tuesday morning. At the surface, Gulf moisture will remain near the coast, south of a stalled cold front. As the upper trough approaches, this moisture will make some progress northward overnight Monday. ...Edwards Plateau into Northeast Texas... While models differ on the northward advancement of moisture late Monday into Tuesday--the NAM most notably less aggressive--it is probable that moisture will be sufficient to support elevated buoyancy. Modest mid-level ascent and lower-level warm advection will promote showers and isolated thunderstorms from the Edwards Plateau region into Central and Northeast Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning. While shear will be strong, mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy will be weak. Severe weather is not expected with this activity. ..Wendt.. 02/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A relative lull in fire-weather conditions is expected across the CONUS on Sunday, as one upper-level system moves off the East Coast but before another upper-level trough deepens over the West. While conditions will remain dry over much of the Southwest, including afternoon RH values at or below critical values, sustained afternoon surface wind speeds are likely to remain at or below 15 mph across the region. Therefore, no fire-weather highlights are included in this outlook. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Sat Feb 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern across the CONUS today will be characterized by zonal flow as a jet max moves eastward and strengthens over the Great Lakes Region. At the surface, a low-pressure system will move rapidly northeastward from the southern Plains to the East Coast by Sunday morning. While most of the central CONUS will be under the influence of surface high pressure, a lee trough in the southern High Plains will support another day of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of New Mexico and adjacent areas. ...Portions of central/southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of West Texas and east-central Arizona... While low-level flow is forecast to weaken across the area during day, lingering enhanced flow aloft will likely mix downward during the afternoon hours resulting in sustained surface winds of 15-20 mph. Given the very dry airmass in place, single-digit RH values will be common across the region as surface heating and boundary-layer mixing commence. With seasonally high ERC values (80-90th percentiles) across the region, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. ..Jirak.. 02/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more