SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...Ozarks to TN/OH Valley Region... Northern-stream short-wave trough is forecast to dig into the northern Plains later this afternoon, which will encourage the positive-tilt trough over the central Plains to eject east, and deamplify over the MS Valley late in the period. This evolution is expected to aid weak surface wave/low development along the synoptic front, mostly likely over northern AR early in the period. Latest model guidance suggests this weak feature will track northeast into southern IN by 24/12z. While the surface front is not particularly sharp, this boundary will serve as the focus for scattered convection through the period. Pre frontal boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in destabilization as mid-level lapse rates should remain weak through the period. Latest NAM suggests 0-3km lapse rates will steepen across eastern AR into western KY by early afternoon, which will result in MLCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, coincident with modest 0-6km bulk shear. Forecast soundings favor multi cell updrafts with some organizational potential, as effective shear will be on the order of 30kt along this pre frontal corridor. At this time it appears most updrafts will struggle to generate more than marginally strong gusts, or perhaps some hail approaching 1 inch. Most robust updrafts should develop by late morning and continue into the early-evening hours before nocturnal cooling lessens buoyancy. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong, to marginally severe, thunderstorms remain possible this evening across southwest Texas. ...01z Update... Upper low is gradually deamplifying as it becomes positive tilted over the central/southern High Plains region. This evolution has contributed to a surging cold front that now extends from the Ozarks-southeast OK-Edwards Plateau of southwest TX. The majority of convection remains along the cool side of the boundary, but a few storms are noted near/south of the wind shift. Surface temperatures remain in the upper 80s to near 90F across southwest TX, but mid-level lapse rates are modest at best, and this is likely hampering updraft strength within an otherwise strongly sheared environment. Additionally, very few severe wind gusts have been reported with this activity, and hail will likely struggle to achieve levels above 1 inch, except near the International border near Sanderson. Overall, severe threat appears fairly low this evening, but a few gusts and marginally severe hail remain possible. ..Darrow.. 09/23/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 22 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 22 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS THROUGH THE OZARKS AND INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas into the Ozarks and lower OH Valley... An upper low over CO will continue to slowly weaken as it migrates eastward into the central Great Plains through early Monday morning. A belt of moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will reside in between the closed circulation and a flattening anticyclone centered over the northwest Gulf of Mexico. In the low levels, a south and southeastward movement of a surface front is forecast through today as it moves through the Corn Belt and areas farther southwest in the southern Great Plains. Showers and isolated thunderstorm activity this morning extends along and behind the front from OK northeastward into the lower MO Valley and western Great Lakes. Considerable cloud cover will contribute to limited diurnal heating, especially from near the Red River northeastward into the Ozark Plateau. Morning surface analysis shows a reservoir of lower 70s deg F dewpoints over the Edwards Plateau (reference the 12 UTC Del Rio, TX raob showing a capped but deep moist layer) with 65-70 F farther northeast from OK through the Ozarks. Forecast soundings later this afternoon indicate 500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE---supporting a risk for a few stronger thunderstorms near/behind the boundary/wind shift. Strong to locally damaging gusts (50-60 mph) and perhaps hail up to around 1 inch in diameter are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening. ..Smith/Broyles.. 09/22/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Large spread among guidance is apparent during the Day 4-8 period. Most guidance develops an upper cyclone over the central or eastern U.S. for much of the period, while an upper ridge persists over the western states. However, the GFS suite of guidance is much more progressive with the central/eastern upper trough/low compared to the ECMWF, and eventually develops a broad upper ridge over much of the CONUS late in the period. Given vastly different forecast solutions, confidence in any severe potential developing during the forecast period is low. Read more