SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... Increasing mid-level flow ahead of a deepening trough entering the western U.S. is expected across the Four Corners region today. The accelerating flow aloft atop a dry boundary layer, at least modest daytime mixing and emerging dry fuels will support a period of elevated fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Utah and far southwest Colorado. Stronger southwest surface winds in conjunction with single digit relative humidity, still supports Critical highlights across southern New Mexico. Residence time of heightened fire weather threat across West Texas due to eastward mixing/propagation of dry line should be limited to just a couple hours this afternoon east of the Cap Rock. In addition, Southern High Plains green up should be in full swing so trimmed far eastern extent of Elevated Highlights into West Texas for today. ..Williams.. 05/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0277 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0277 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA.... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Central TX/Southern OK into the ArkLaTex Region... Morning water vapor loop shows a well-defined shortwave trough over southern AZ tracking northeastward. Ahead of this system, southerly low-level winds and steep lapse rates aloft have established a very moist and extremely unstable air mass from southern OK into central TX. Dewpoints in the low/mid 70s and ample daytime heating will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. As the upper system and associated mid-level jet max approach the dryline, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop by mid-afternoon. Splitting supercells capable of very large hail will be the main initial concern, along with damaging winds and a tornado or two. Most model solutions suggest upscale growth of these storms into a bowing MCS by evening, tracking eastward across the ArklaTex region. Have extended the ENH a little farther east to accommodate this scenario, with damaging winds and large hail being the main concerns. This cluster of storms may persist overnight, tracking into central/northern MS. ...Northwest OK... The plume of dense cirrus ahead of the AZ shortwave trough will move east of northwest OK by late afternoon, allowing strong heating and destabilization. This combined with southeasterly low level winds near a retreating warm front will provide a corridor of strong instability and favorable low-level shear for supercell development. The coverage of storms in this area is uncertain and varied between the morning CAM solutions. However, the storms that form will pose a risk of very large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. It is also unclear how far east this threat may persist, with some concern for an MCS tracking into northeast OK overnight. ...NY/New England... A progressive shortwave trough and associated mid-level jet is tracking eastward across the Great Lakes region today. Cooling temperatures aloft and strong daytime heating will lead to pockets of moderate CAPE and steep low/mid level lapse rates. Storms are beginning to form across NY and will move into a progressively more favorable air mass for strong/severe convection (including a few supercells) by mid-afternoon. Locally damaging winds are the main concern, but the strongest cells could also produce hail and perhaps a tornado or two. Refer to MCD #837 for further details. ..Hart/Moore.. 05/17/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat May 17 15:02:05 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing large to very large hail, damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes are expected across the southern Plains. Additional severe storms are possible across the Northeast. ...Southern Plains Region... Water vapor imagery depicts a pronounced southern stream upper-level trough over the Baja Peninsula this morning, with evidence of a lead impulse approaching southwest TX. This leading impulse will contribute to ascent in the vicinity of a sharpening dryline across Western North Texas/Oklahoma by early afternoon. To the east of the dryline, extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 4000 J/kg) is expected to develop given the moist low-level air mass and relatively cool mid-level thermal profiles. With negligible CINH by early/mid afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the dryline and move east/northeast into North Texas and southern Oklahoma. Supercells will be the dominant mode initially, with a risk for very large hail (in excess of 3.5 inches), and damaging gusts. Although low-level shear is not especially strong, some tornado risk will exist given the magnitude of instability and potential for storm-scale interactions. Eventual upscale growth into a severe MCS is expected as storms continue to move across North TX/southern OK this evening. Severe wind probabilities have been increased across the Enhanced Risk area for the expectation of a more concentrated corridor of damaging wind potential. Across central/northwest OK, a narrowing plume of instability will be present east of the dryline and south of an east-west oriented frontal boundary. Within this moist sector, strong to extreme instability and around 50 kts of deep-layer shear will support at least isolated supercell storm development this afternoon over central OK. Very large hail (3 inches or greater) will be possible, in addition to damaging gusts. Tornado risk will be dependent on storm interactions. Thunderstorm development over northwest OK is more uncertain, however should a storm develop a supercell mode will be favored with all hazards possible. ...Northeast... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across much of the northeastern U.S. today in response to the approaching Great Lakes upper low. Large-scale ascent will increase with as the left-exit region of the 500mb jet translates across PA. Scattered thunderstorms, including supercells, are expected to develop along/ahead of the synoptic cold front across upstate NY, with subsequent movement expected into western New England. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are likely, with severe hail and winds as the primary risks. A tornado or two cannot be ruled out with any stronger and semi-discrete supercell. Please refer to Mesoscale Discussion 836 for additional details on short-term expectations. ...Northern Utah Vicinity... A Marginal Risk has been introduced across northern UT and vicinity given expected higher concentration of storms within a deeply-mixed boundary layer. Strong/severe gusts will be the primary severe risk. ...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast... Thunderstorms continue from central MS into the western Carolinas at 13z, with occasional pulses of strong/severe cells. Isolated stronger storms will remain possible as diurnal heating/destabilization takes place in the presence of ample shear for organized storms. However, with the line of convection oriented generally parallel to the shear vector, any severe risk should be isolated. Strong gusts will be the primary hazard. ..Bunting/Marsh.. 05/17/2025 Read more

MD 0836 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT
Mesoscale Discussion 0836 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Areas affected...Upstate New York and northern Vermont Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 171136Z - 171400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue moving northeast this morning. Additional thunderstorms will develop later this morning and afternoon and a watch may eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...As a strong mid-level low slowly moves east across the Great Lakes today, multiple rounds of thunderstorms are anticipated across upstate New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. These storms will be aided by increasing large-scale forcing from a number of sources: increasing upper-level divergence, lobes of positive vorticity advection, and the left exit region of a mid-level jet. As diurnal heating increases this morning, cold mid-level temperatures will overspread the region. This, coupled with surface dewpoints ranging from the mid 50Fs to mid 60Fs will result in a largely unstable, uncapped environment, primed for thunderstorm development in association with one of the myriad of large-scale forcing mechanisms. One such mechanism is already producing thunderstorms across far eastern portions of Lake Ontario. These thunderstorms should continue to rapidly move northeast into northern Vermont this morning. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and small hail. The likelihood for a watch in the short-term is relatively low. However, as instability increases, and more widespread forcing for ascent moves into the area, a watch or watches may be needed across portions of the area by midday into early afternoon. ..Marsh/Bunting.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 43927225 43087390 42527564 42277680 42567763 43377876 43787863 43687688 44287631 44637567 45097477 45097330 45147184 44537152 43927225 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Tuesday... As the primary mid-level trough shifts east on Tuesday, scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will be present ahead of a cold front. Convection/cloud cover from Day 3 convection across the Plains/Ozarks will impact destabilization across Kentucky and into the Ohio Valley. However, farther south, strong destabilization is likely as the boundary layer heats beneath steepening mid-level lapse rates. 50 to 60 knots of mid-level flow will overspread this unstable warm sector during the afternoon Tuesday. As this occurs, an uncapped boundary layer and synoptic scale ascent should combine for scattered severe storm development. Wherever moderate to strong instability develops, most likely south of the TN/KY border, supercells are anticipated with a primary threat for large hail. By later in the evening, storms may congeal into a MCS with an increasing damaging wind threat. ...Day 5/Wednesday... A cold front will advance across the Appalachians on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Moderate instability is forecast ahead of this cold front Wednesday morning/early afternoon. A few strong to severe storms may develop along the front before it moves into the Atlantic. However, the limited duration of this threat, and potential for timing shifts as newer guidance arrives, precludes severe weather probabilities at this time. ...Day6-8.. A relatively benign severe weather pattern is expected from Thursday/Day 6 into next weekend as a cold front pushes into the Gulf. A few storms are possible along the cold front as it moves south along the Florida Peninsula on Thursday. Otherwise, more robust moisture recovery will begin Thursday night. Overall, moisture quality will be low initially, but eventually some threat may develop across the Plains as low-level moisture advection continues. Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0276 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0276 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 276 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC VA 170835Z - 171600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 276 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 AM EDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme Northeast Georgia Western and Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Saturday morning from 435 AM until NOON EDT. * Primary threats include... Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and move east across the watch area through mid morning. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will be the primary severe threats, and a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north northwest of South Hill VA to 40 miles west southwest of Charlotte NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 274...WW 275... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH TEXAS...MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with all severe weather hazards are likely from portions of the Midwest to the southern Plains on Monday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move over the central/southern Plains on Monday. At the surface, an area of low pressure will move slowly east across Kansas and eventually into Missouri. A sharp dryline will extend from this surface low southward along the I-35 corridor into north-central Texas. A warm front will extend from this surface low southeastward into portions of the lower Ohio Valley and into the Carolinas Monday morning. This front will move slowly north through the day. ...Central/Southern Plains into the Midwest... Strong to very strong instability will develop across the Plains and into the Ozarks on Monday as temperatures warm into the 80s with dewpoints in the low 70s while mid-level temperatures cool ahead of the approaching mid-level trough. As strengthening mid-level flow overspreads the warm sector, a favorable environment for intense supercells will develop with 3000+ J/kg MLCAPE and 50+ knots of shear across a broad region. Large to very large hail will be likely within supercells across eastern Kansas and Oklahoma into northern Texas. The tornado threat remains potent but more uncertain. The weakening nature of the surface low and a strengthening low-level jet during the evening when mode remains less clear are the primary uncertainties at this time. Eventually expect storms to congeal into one or more MCSs with an increasing severe wind threat. Additional storms are likely late Monday evening as a cold front overtakes the dryline across Kansas and eventually into Oklahoma. Storm intensity during this period remains unclear as it will depend greatly on remaining instability in the wake of earlier convection. Regardless, if earlier convection does not materialize as expected, more robust storms are likely along the cold front. Therefore, between the likely dryline storms during the afternoon and potential for storms along the cold front Monday evening, numerous severe thunderstorms are likely across Kansas and Oklahoma with that threat continuing eastward into parts of Missouri and Arkansas Monday evening. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

WW 0275 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0275 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 275 SEVERE TSTM AL MS 170715Z - 171500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 275 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 215 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Central Mississippi * Effective this Saturday morning from 215 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are expected to move east-southeast across the watch area through mid morning with a risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail. A tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles southwest of Greenwood MS to 40 miles northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 271...WW 273...WW 274... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27040. ...Bunting Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... On Sunday, a mid-level trough (and associated wind speed maximum) is forecast to progress across the Four Corners region into the southern High Plains. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind a sharpening dryline and deepening surface cyclone will result in widespread Critical conditions, primarily across southern New Mexico into far West Texas. ...Southern New Mexico into Far West Texas... As the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens and the dryline mixes eastward, surface winds of 20-25 MPH with 5-10% relative humidity are forecast. Fuels will be receptive to rapid wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC percentiles at or exceeding the 80th-90th annual percentiles. There is some suggestion in the 00Z HREF ensemble guidance that winds could reach 30 MPH, though there is not enough confidence at this time to introduce any Extremely Critical highlights. Further east into Texas, meteorological conditions will also reach Critical threshold -- however, current fuels guidance shows fuels are only at or below average, so only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough and associated speed maximum is forecast to progress from Baja into the desert southwest during the morning and afternoon. Deep boundary-layer mixing and lee cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains will result in critical conditions over much of southern New Mexico into portions of far West Texas and far southeastern Arizona. ...Southern New Mexico... As the boundary-layer mixes and the surface cyclone over the southern High Plains deepens, sustained surface winds of 20-25 MPH coupled with 5-10% relative humidity and receptive fuels are anticipated. Critical meteorological conditions are also expected in portions of eastern New Mexico and West Texas, as well as parts of Arizona along the Mogollon Rim. However, current fuels guidance indicates fuels are at or below their typical seasonal values, warranting only Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 05/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Sat May 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected on Sunday across portions of the central and southern Plains. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Southwest into the Central Plains on Sunday as the broader trough develops across the Intermountain West. By 00Z Monday, a ~992mb lee cyclone will develop along the KS/CO border. A warm front will extend from this surface low into northern Kansas/southern Nebraska by Sunday evening and will remain mostly stationary across the Southeast. A dryline will extend from central Kansas to the southern Plains. ...Kansas and northern Oklahoma... A very moist airmass will be in place east of the dryline on Sunday with low 70s dewpoints forecast across much of Texas, Oklahoma, and southern Kansas ahead of the surface boundary. As temperatures warm, strong to very strong instability is forecast to develop. As the mid-level shortwave trough emerges across the Plains, synoptic-scale ascent will combine with the increasing instability to decrease inhibition across much of the dryline. Forecast guidance shows limited convergence along the dryline in Oklahoma and Texas during the day Sunday with the better convergence focused across Kansas. Therefore, confidence is higher for storms across central and southern Kansas and perhaps into northern Oklahoma. Any storms which develop will be supercellular with a threat for very large hail and tornadoes, particularly by later in the evening as the low-level jet strengthens. While confidence is higher in storms across the Enhanced risk area, storm evolution remains unclear. 00Z CAM guidance has wide variations in the northeastward progression of the surface warm front which will significantly impact storm development on Sunday. A more discrete storm mode would likely pose a greater very large hail and tornado threat, while more widespread storm development would likely favor development into a MCS which could pose a greater severe wind threat across eastern Kansas and into Missouri. Despite the uncertainties, the Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) risk seems appropriately placed where severe storms are most likely. The 10% tornado probabilities do not extend to the northern extent of the Enhanced due to the aforementioned uncertainties in the warm frontal position. However, elevated hail will remain a threat north of the warm front. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A dryline will be in place across western Oklahoma and north Texas for much of the day Sunday. Convergence will be mostly weak along the Oklahoma dryline for much of the day with better convergence farther south in Texas, farther from the better upper-level forcing. However, by the evening, convergence will increase somewhat which could result in isolated supercell development as the low-level jet intensifies during the evening. The environment across Oklahoma and North Texas will be very volatile with a conditional threat for intense supercells capable of very large hail and strong tornadoes. ...Northeast CO/Southwest Nebraska Vicinity... By Sunday afternoon, low to mid 60s dewpoints will advect westward around the surface low into northwest Kansas, northeast Colorado, and southwest Nebraska. Moderate to strong instability is forecast ahead of the dryline which will aid in supercell development by the afternoon. A narrow corridor of instability will be the primary limiting factor to the tornado threat in an otherwise very favorable STP environment. It appears supercells will likely be north of the boundary before maturing which will support a primary threat for large hail. However, if a storm can rapidly mature as it develops off the dryline, it could pose a tornado threat given the favorable low-level shear across the region. ...Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southeast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along a stalled frontal zone that will extend from the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Southeast. Moderate to strong instability will be in place within a moderately sheared environment. Forcing will be weak along the front with neutral to perhaps slightly rising heights aloft. However, forecast soundings show minimal inhibition and therefore, isolated development is possible. A greater severe threat could materialize from a remnant MCV/MCS which will likely evolve from Day 1/Saturday convection across north Texas. If this maintains along the frontal zone into the late morning on Sunday, it could provide a focused region of greater severe weather threat Sunday afternoon across AL/GA. ..Bentley.. 05/17/2025 Read more