SPC Oct 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... Ongoing thunderstorm activity this morning over south FL and vicinity along/near a weak baroclinic zone should generally remain sub-severe through the day, with modest low/mid-level flow limiting deep-layer shear. The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enhanced low-level southerlies expected to gradually overspread parts of the Keys and south FL late tonight (mainly after 06Z). A corresponding slow increase in low-level shear is anticipated in this time frame, which should support some potential for updraft rotation and isolated tornado/waterspout threat with any cells in outer rain bands on the eastern periphery of Milton's center. Still, there is a fair amount of guidance which shows that any outer rain bands that do manage to form late tonight into early Wednesday morning may tend to remain offshore from the Keys and southwest FL Coast. Even with this uncertainty, some threat for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas, mainly in the 06-12Z time frame. The threat for a few tornadoes is expected to increase into the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 12Z/8 AM EDT Wednesday morning) across a greater portion of central/south FL and the Keys as Milton approaches the FL Gulf Coast. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... A pair of fast-moving, low-amplitude shortwave troughs are expected to progress through the enhanced westerly flow over southern Canada throughout the period. The first shortwave is forecast to move from Ontario through the St. Lawrence Valley and New England on D4/Friday. The second shortwave will follow quickly in the wake of the first, progressing from the Canadian Prairies through the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes on D5/Saturday. Beginning late D5/Saturday or early D6/Sunday, this second shortwave may further mature into a cyclone over eastern Ontario. This cyclone is then forecast to drift eastward early next week, with upper troughing associated with this system expanding over the central and eastern CONUS. Some modest moisture return is possible into the Mid MS and OH Valleys on D5/Saturday and D6/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D6/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return, and associated buoyancy, will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. A dry continental airmass will build in behind the front, promoting stable conditions the majority of the central and eastern CONUS early next week. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic while a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast, with upper-ridging building in between both troughs over the central U.S. today. Widespread surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS, promoting dry but relatively cool conditions, with light or variable surface winds common. On the larger scale, fire weather conditions should be quiescent, though some localized wildfire potential cannot be ruled out from the Interior West to the OH Valley during afternoon peak heating given dry fuels and lower RH. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic while a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast, with upper-ridging building in between both troughs over the central U.S. today. Widespread surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS, promoting dry but relatively cool conditions, with light or variable surface winds common. On the larger scale, fire weather conditions should be quiescent, though some localized wildfire potential cannot be ruled out from the Interior West to the OH Valley during afternoon peak heating given dry fuels and lower RH. ..Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to begin the period over the upper St. Lawrence Valley, with the cyclonic flow throughout the base of this system extending across much of the eastern CONUS. Tropical Cyclone Milton will be within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. Expectation is that a shortwave trough will move within the base of the upper low across New England while Milton also ejects quickly northeastward. This evolution will take the upper troughing off the East Coast, although some troughing may linger across the Southeast. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Farther west, the overall upper pattern is expected to deamplify/trend more zonal as upper ridging initially extending from the Southwest through the Upper Midwest dampens in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Within this ridging, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few lightning flashes are possible with the high-based convection associated with this low-amplitude shortwave and related cold mid-level temperatures across OK, but coverage is expected to be less than 10%. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton as a hurricane over the east-central FL Coast early Thursday morning before the system then continues east-northeastward into the western Atlantic while weakening. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the peninsula. Even so ample speed shear will exist, with enough low-level curvature still in place to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec throughout much of the period. Progression of this shortwave will induce a eastward shift to the parent cyclone, taking it over the St. Lawrence Valley by early Thursday. To the west of this cyclone, expansive upper ridging will extend from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies early Wednesday. This ridging is expected to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. A flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, but the overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton and attendant tornado threat. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Hurricane Milton, which is currently centered about 35 miles north-northwest of Progresso, Mexico, is forecast to continue northeastward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico, approaching the west-central FL coast by Wednesday evening. This system is then expected to continue east-northeastward across the central FL Peninsula Wednesday night through Thursday morning. Low to mid-level flow is expected to increase across the peninsula throughout the day, substantially elongating hodographs. Mid 70s dewpoints will also result in modest buoyancy. Some added buoyancy is also possible via daytime heating and cloud breaks over the central and southern peninsula given the slower storm speed and smaller structure. While its difficult to know the timing and structure of any convective bands, potential exists for some of these bands to be favorably timed with peak heating. All of these factors suggest a tornado threat will exists within any deeper, more sustained convection. For additional information regarding Milton, including the latest track and additional hazards, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Mosier.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop tonight into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Synopsis... An upper low will drift very slowly southeastward across eastern Canada, while the broad/surrounding cyclonic flow field resides across the northeastern quarter of the U.S. through the period. Farther to the west into the Plains and Intermountain region, low-amplitude upper ridging will prevail. Meanwhile however, the main weather feature remains Hurricane Milton, which is forecast to shift northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Portions of Florida and the Keys... Though Milton will remain over the open Gulf through the period, outer banding may begin to affect the Florida Peninsula and Keys as early as late tonight. Given that the deep-layer wind field will be increasing in response to the approach of the hurricane, low-level shear will become increasingly conducive for updraft rotation/tornado potential through the latter half of the period. Presuming that cells within Milton's outer banding reach Florida, local risk for brief tornadoes could evolve, within sustained/rotating convective elements. As such, will maintain level 1/MRGL risk across this area -- reflecting low tornado probability. Depending upon any adjustments to the track/intensity of Milton with time, corresponding adjustments to the tornado forecast may be required. For additional information regarding Milton, please refer to the latest forecasts/updates from the National Hurricane Center. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Oct 8, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and scattered thunderstorms persist early this evening in the vicinity of South Florida and the Keys, with a few flashes also ongoing in the vicinity of northern Lower Michigan. The most likely area for continuation of lightning-producing convection overnight remains across the Florida vicinity, though a few flashes may continue spreading southeastward across the Lake Huron and into the Lower Lakes area. A flash or two may also occur near the surface front across eastern North Carolina/northern South Carolina, where isolated showers are ongoing at this time. ..Goss.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0455 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. A relatively stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue through the next several days. High pressure will continue to intensify and expand eastward over the central CONUS through midweek, shunting stronger westerly flow aloft northward. This should limit the overlap of dry and windy conditions through midweek. By D4/Thursday, the upper ridge will begin to weaken as stronger westerly flow returns over the Northwest and Northern Rockies. Troughing will approach the West Coast, supporting some increase in surface winds across the West. Occasional gusty winds and pockets of lower humidity could also develop in the northern Rockies/Plains as a dry cold front moves across the western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. Low-end fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, concurrent with the ridge reintensifying. This will likely limit the overlap of strong winds within the dry/warm air mass, supporting only modest potential for widespread critical fire-weather conditions. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Oct 7, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... A General Thunderstorm area was added for portions of the TX Trans-Pecos, where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing over the higher terrain -- aided by subtle large-scale ascent ahead of a midlevel low evident in water-vapor imagery. Over southern FL and the Keys, the 18Z MFL/KEY special soundings and latest VWP data corroborate earlier thinking regarding unfavorable deep-layer lapse rates and modest low-level hodograph curvature (despite gradually strengthening flow in the 0.5-1.5-km layer). These factors should continue to limit the overall organization/intensity of thunderstorms -- precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

1 month 2 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Fire-weather concerns should remain localized over much of the US. Drier air over parts of the Southeast/Gulf Coast may briefly overlap with gusty offshore flow associated with Hurricane Milton. However, this should remain isolated and no highlights are planned. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more
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