SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but no severe thunderstorms are expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is forecast to move across New England on Monday, as a cyclonic flow regime remains over much of the northeastern third of the nation. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southeastward into the Carolinas, Georgia and central Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with surface dewpoints across the Florida Peninsula in the 60s and low 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, weak destabilization is expected. In response, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in some areas across the Florida Peninsula Monday afternoon. Instability is not expected to be strong enough across the Florida Peninsula for a severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ..Karstens.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...EASTERN OHIO...AND THE WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York/western Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and the western Maryland Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Mid-level short-wave troughing is forecast to shift east-southeastward across the Great Lakes and adjacent Ontario into the Northeast today and tonight. This trough will be accompanied by a surface cold front, advancing eastward/southeastward across these same areas through the period. Elsewhere, low-amplitude ridging will prevail across the central and western U.S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Milton should continue to evolve/gradually strengthen across the western Gulf of Mexico through the period. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes/central Appalachians... Daytime heating ahead of an advancing cold front, combined with a ribbon of low 60s dewpoints along the front extending from Lake Ontario southwestward, will result in modest afternoon destabilization (500 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected). As the front advances ahead of the associated upper trough, the thermodynamic environment should prove sufficient -- in tandem with frontal forcing -- for thunderstorm development to occur. Moderately strong (50 to 60 kt) mid-level westerlies are forecast to overspread the region through the day. Given low-level southwesterlies expected ahead of the front, this veering/increasing flow with height will be sufficient to support organized/rotating storms. Initial cellular convection may thus become supercellular locally, with a tornado possible along with risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. With time, storms should grow upscale into a more linear frontal band, with damaging winds becoming the more prevalent risk through late afternoon/early evening. Later in the evening, as the front crosses the higher terrain, convective intensity -- and associated severe potential -- should diminish, given weaker instability expected east of the mountains. ..Goss/Karstens.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Parts of Wisconsin, Upper Michigan, and northern Lower Michigan... A strong upper low, now crossing southeastern Manitoba per water vapor imagery, will continue progressing steadily eastward -- into southwestern Ontario -- through the period. An associated surface cold front -- trailing from a low near the Manitoba/Ontario border -- extends across western Lake Superior, northwestern Wisconsin, the southeastern tip of Minnesota, and into eastern Iowa at this time, and will move rapidly across the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Midwest through the overnight hours. Within a zone of ample/elevated instability, thunderstorms have developed over the past hour or so along the cold front -- from western Lake Superior into northwestern Wisconsin. Very strong flow aloft exists across this area, though generally unidirectional in the cloud-bearing layer. Some increase in flow with height through mid levels is yielding sufficient speed shear for organized storms, and attendant risk for hail with the strongest updrafts. Though the storms are elevated, the boundary layer is not strongly stable, suggesting that gusty/locally damaging winds may also occur -- particularly if an organized cold pool can develop. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #2130. ..Goss.. 10/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 5 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A very dry airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central and western United States this week. This airmass will allow rapid temperature rises during the afternoon resulting in relative humidity falling into the 20-30 percent range (and locally lower) most afternoons. The lack of any large-scale synoptic troughs moving through the mid-level flow will preclude any critical fire weather probabilities at this time. By late this week, into next weekend, guidance suggests a cold front will move across the Plains. An increase in surface wind speeds will almost certainly accompany the frontal passage (both pre- and post-frontal). Thus, as the timing of this synoptic wave/surface front, becomes more clear, at least elevated fire-weather highlights will be needed. Additionally, surface winds may increase by next weekend across inland Southern California into the Great Basin. However, confidence in timing/strength of this trough remains low. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Observational trends and the latest hi-res model data show upper 50s to low 60s F surface dewpoints reaching northern WI and MI by 22-00z. Rapid destabilization favorable for weakly buoyant, mostly elevated parcels is expected ahead of the fast-moving cold front by early evening. A mix of banded and supercellular elements is possible along the front with the primary risk being large hail and isolated damaging gusts. While buoyancy is expected to be limited, favorable deep-layer shear and strong forcing for ascent should support a few more organized and stronger storms through this evening. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will persist over the western half of the CONUS on Monday, while upper troughing prevails over the eastern states. Surface high pressure will build over much of the country as a surface cold front moves offshore much of the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. A dry, continental airmass over much of the U.S. will preclude thunderstorm activity. However, the aforementioned cold front will stall across northern FL. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the FL Peninsula amid deeper boundary-layer moisture and modest instability. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to strengthen into a hurricane and move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday. The system will remain well west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL during this time, precluding any tropical cyclone related tornado risk on Monday into early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z Only minor changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The elevated region was expanded south and west across portions of central and western Oklahoma into the northern Texas panhandle. Here, despite cooler temperatures, a dry atmosphere and full insolation will allow relative humidity to fall to around 20-25% -- perhaps lower if temperatures end up higher than forecast. Given gusty north winds, elevated fire weather conditions are likely. Elsewhere, no changes were made to the ongoing forecast. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 PM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of eastern Ohio, western New York and Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... An upper trough over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will develop east on Sunday, becoming oriented from James Bay to the Mid-Atlantic coast by Monday morning. As the trough shifts east, a belt of 45-60 kt westerly flow from 700-500 mb will overspread the Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across much of the Midwest, extending across central OH to southern MO/IL by midday. A narrow corridor of low 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the cold front across the Upper Ohio Valley. Cooling aloft/steepening midlevel lapse rates will overlap modest boundary-layer moisture to support a belt of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE along/just ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. Forecast soundings show mostly unidirectional southwesterly deep-layer flow as low-level winds are expected to veer ahead of the cold front. However, near-surface winds around 15 kt will rapidly increase with height to 40-50 kt around 700 mb. This will provide sufficient low-level hodograph curvature and SRH such that a tornado or two will be possible with any initial semi-discrete supercells that can develop. However, the cold front is expected to progress east fairly quickly and bowing line segments will become more likely with time, supporting a risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail also is possible, mainly early in storm evolution when storm mode will be more favorable. While overall spatial/temporal extent of severe potential will be somewhat limited, the overall environment supports introducing a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) with this outlook cycle. ..Leitman.. 10/05/2024 Read more