SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Florida... Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to make landfall along the west coast of Florida Wednesday evening, before moving offshore the east coast of Florida by early Thursday morning. Intense low to midlevel flow associated with the hurricane will overspread much of the Florida Peninsula and the Keys as the system tracks northeast through the period. Forecast soundings indicated enlarged low-level hodographs and SRH increasing to greater than 300 m2/s2 within the eastern semicircle of Milton. Mid-70s F dewpoints will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a few tornadoes will accompany convection within the rainbands of Milton. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... No changes have been made to the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) across parts of the FL Peninsula and Keys on Tuesday into early Wednesday. Major Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast on Tuesday, coming closer to the FL west coast by the end of period/Wednesday morning. As the system develops northeast across the eastern Gulf, strengthening low and midlevel southerly flow will overspread the Keys into the southern/central Peninsula, mainly after the 03z-06z time frame. As this occurs, low-level SRH will increase, resulting in enlarged and favorably curved hodographs and supporting rotation within cells in the far outer bands of Milton. Surface dewpoints in the mid 70s F are already in place, and will provide sufficient low-level instability to support the potential for a couple of tornadoes late Tuesday night into early Wednesday. ..Leitman.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, fire-weather concerns are minimal. See the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...Discussion... Midday surface analysis shows a weak frontal zone draped generally east to west across the far southern part of the FL Peninsula and extending westward to a weak surface low 180 mi to the west of Naples, FL. This weak low, well to the east of Hurricane Milton, is forecast to develop over the Gulf Stream east of South FL later this evening. In the vicinity of this boundary where local backing of surface to 0.5 km flow exists, some augmentation of the hodograph may result in one or two transient cells exhibiting weak cyclonic shear over the Everglades and perhaps coastal South FL this afternoon. However, the very moist profile and poor lapse rates will favor outflow with the larger convective clusters. As such, will maintain no severe highlights this outlook update. A few thunderstorms may linger near the southern New England coast early this afternoon, with isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Smith/Wendt.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Greatest thunderstorm potential today should exist across south FL and the Keys, along and south of a ill-defined front draped across the FL Peninsula. A weak surface low is present over the eastern Gulf of Mexico this morning, and it is forecast to redevelop off the southeast FL Coast by this evening. Some modest enhancement to the low-level flow should occur through the day over south FL and vicinity, but poor lapse rates should hinder robust updrafts even as daytime heating occurs. While occasional strong/gusty winds appear possible with any convection that can develop in this regime, the overall severe threat appears too limited to include any probabilities at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorms will continue moving eastward across parts of southern New England this morning ahead of a front, with additional isolated development possible later this afternoon across parts of the Carolinas. Occasional lightning flashes may also be noted across parts of the Great Lakes, with low-topped convection possible beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough over eastern Canada. Finally, isolated high-based thunderstorms may develop along parts of the Sierra into NV this afternoon as a weak shortwave trough moves eastward. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/07/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... Current forecast track from the National Hurricane Center places Hurricane Milton just off the east-central FL Coast early D4/Thursday morning. This system is expected to interact with a larger scale upper trough moving across the eastern CONUS throughout the day on D4/Thursday, causing it to eject quickly northeastward into the Atlantic. Upper ridging will likely be in place from the Southwest into the Upper Great Lakes on D4/Thursday, and this ridging is expected to shift eastward in the wake of the eastern CONUS troughing. Some dampening of this ridge is possible on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday as a shortwave trough progresses throughout its northern periphery across central Canada and Ontario/Upper Great Lakes. The northern stream is expected to stay fairly active during the weekend, with another shortwave trough likely dropping from the Canadian Prairies and Great Lakes on D7/Sunday. Any stronger mid-level flow will be displaced north of the better low-level moisture on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Some moisture return into the Mid MS and OH Valleys is possible on D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, ahead of a potential cold front that is currently expected to move through on D7/Sunday. Current guidance suggest the moisture return will be limited, tempering the overall buoyancy and keeping the severe potential low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula as Hurricane Milton moves through on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and associated cold mid-level temperatures are forecast to progress across Ontario, the Great Lakes, and the Northeast, moving through the base of a large cyclone centered over western Quebec. To the west of this cyclone, upper ridging will continue to shift eastward into more of western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A weak shortwave trough will likely move within this broader ridging over the Mid MO Valley. While a flash or two is possible within some high-based convection near the CO/NM border as well as the TX Panhandle/western OK, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10% in these areas. Primary forecast concern for Wednesday is the evolution of Hurricane Milton, which is currently expected to move across the FL Peninsula Wednesday evening/night. The airmass across the central/southern FL Peninsula will likely be characterized by low to mid 70s dewpoints. This low-level moisture should be sufficient for enough buoyancy to support some deeper, more persistent updrafts, particularly during afternoon when some daytime heating is also possible. Wind fields are also expected to increase substantially during this time. The resulting combination of buoyancy and shear will support the risk for tornadoes within the convective rainbands of Milton. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is poised to eject into the Atlantic as upper ridging becomes established across the central U.S., and another mid-level trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Tuesday). Though weak surface lee troughing may develop across the Plains states by afternoon, surface high pressure should dominate the Interior West, as well as the Mississippi Valley region and points east. Dry but cool surface conditions with a light and variable surface wind field should accompany areas experiencing high pressure, with wildfire-spread concerns remaining localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic coastline while upper ridging builds across the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure will overspread much of the CONUS, promoting dry but cool conditions and relatively weak surface wind fields. As such, overall quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across much of the U.S., with any wildfire-growth potential likely remaining localized. Some Elevated-equivalent fire weather surface conditions are possible along the Wyoming/Colorado border by afternoon heating (driven by downslope flow). However, these conditions should not persist long enough to warrant fire weather highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Cyclonic flow aloft is forecast to persist from the Upper MS Valley off the Northeast Coast on Tuesday, as the parent mid/upper cyclone remains largely in place over western Quebec. Farther west, expansive upper ridging, initially extending from the Southwest into the Canadian Prairies, will gradually build northeastward. A weak shortwave trough is forecast to move through the western periphery of this ridging from central CA into the western Great Basin. Surface pattern across much of the central and eastern CONUS will be dominated by high pressure while seasonably warm conditions persist across much of the western CONUS. A flash or two is possible across the western Great Basin amid isolated high-based convection attendant to the weak shortwave trough progressing through the region. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the central and eastern CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will be in place ahead of Hurricane Milton. Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to be a Major Hurricane as it moves across the central Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Strengthening low to mid-level winds associated with this cyclone are expected to spread across the FL Keys by late Tuesday night and across much of the west coast of the FL Peninsula by early Wednesday morning. Outer rainbands associated with Milton could be moving into these areas at the same time, resulting in a low-probability potential for a few tornadoes. ..Mosier.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula today, with a few lightning flashes also possible over the Sierra into the western Great Basin. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will continue to amplify across the Northeast while ejecting into the Atlantic, with upper ridging poised to build into the western and central CONUS today. Surface high pressure and associated static stability should limit thunderstorm development over several locales, from the Intermountain West to the Appalachian Mountains. A few thunderstorms may develop ahead of a surface cold front across portions of New England this morning, as well as the Carolinas this afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are also likely over portions of the central/southern FL Peninsula as rich moisture advects inland ahead of Hurricane Milton. Isolated thunderstorms may occur over and to the lee of the Sierra as a weak mid-level impulse traverses the area this afternoon. Lastly, a couple of lightning flashes cannot be ruled out over northeast Lower MI with a passing impulse. However, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to warrant thunder probabilities. ..Squitieri/Goss.. 10/07/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... A couple instances of severe hail or damaging gusts remain possible across the central/northern Appalachians through early tonight. ...Synopsis... A line of strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms continues to track east along the windward side of the central and northern Appalachians ahead of a surface lee trough. Though these storms have a history of marginally severe hail and damaging gusts, the primary convective band is beginning to outpace the warm sector while tracking eastward. Nocturnal cooling will also contribute to further boundary-layer stabilization. Still, strong vertical wind shear is in place, evident via regional VADs, which depict large, curved hodographs. As such, any storms that can access the remaining scant buoyancy may still produce a couple instances of marginally severe hail or damaging gusts over the next few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/07/2024 Read more

MD 2132 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 689... FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AND WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2132 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Areas affected...parts of western New York State and western Pennsylvania Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689... Valid 062254Z - 070100Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 689 continues. SUMMARY...A couple of supercell structures will continue to spread toward the Allegheny Mountains of west central Pennsylvania, but probably will begin to weaken toward 8-10 PM EDT. Although some risk for severe weather may spread east of the current severe weather watch area, a new severe weather watch may not be needed. DISCUSSION...An initial, perhaps convectively enhanced, surge of cool air southeast of Lake Erie is already beginning to stabilize the narrow pre-cold frontal instability axis now near and southeast of the lower Great Lakes region. The east-southeastward movement of the ongoing convection across the Allegheny Plateau appears to be outpacing the advection of the instability axis, and it seems probable that storms will begin to gradually weaken through 00-02Z, as they acquire more stable inflow. Until then, however, a couple of isolated supercell structures may continue to pose a risk for severe hail and locally damaging surface gusts while approaching the Allegheny Front. Although wind profiles are characterized by strong deep-layer shear and sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, the extent of the risk for tornadoes remains more unclear, given relatively low humidities in the lower/mid troposphere. ..Kerr.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 42667813 43187712 42917668 42187723 40907844 40147987 40488109 40998028 41347948 42507818 42667813 Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ZZV TO 10 E FKL TO 25 SSE BUF TO 35 NW ROC. ..GOSS..10/06/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 689 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NYC009-037-073-121-070040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CATTARAUGUS GENESEE ORLEANS WYOMING OHC013-019-029-059-067-081-157-070040- OH . OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELMONT CARROLL COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON JEFFERSON TUSCARAWAS PAC003-005-007-019-023-031-033-047-051-053-059-063-065-073-083- 121-123-125-129-070040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 689 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 062055Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire supercell characteristics and pose an initial risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. Upscale growth into a mix of cells and linear segments this evening will facilitate the severe risk potentially becoming primarily a damaging wind threat (60 to 70 mph gusts) before this activity weakens late this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Buffalo NY to 35 miles south of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z A relatively stable and stagnant mid-level flow pattern is expected across the US over the next several days. High pressure over the West will gradually expand eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies over the Plains. The increase in ridging will gradually shift stronger flow aloft northwards towards the international border. Beneath the ridge, high pressure will support dry and very warm conditions over much of the central and western US through the next several days. However, winds are expected to be relatively light over much of the CONUS, limiting the potential for more widespread fire-weather concerns. Fire-weather potential may begin to increase later this week into the weekend as the ridge begins to weaken and stronger flow aloft migrates south. Occasional gusty winds could develop over the northern Rockies and Plains as a strong cold front moves across the Plains and western US. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting the potential for elevated fire-weather concerns. Some fire-weather risk may continue into the weekend as the cold front progresses, but confidence in the exact timing/coverage of any widespread fire-weather conditions remains low. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more