WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW PNC TO 35 WNW CNU. WW 16 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 040900Z. ..JEWELL..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-035-049-040900- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1214 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... An intensifying line of thunderstorms may become capable of producing strong, damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it overspreads the eastern Carolinas and southeastern Virginia mid Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. ...Discussion... The center of a broad and deep, occluding surface cyclone still appears likely to migrate across the lower Great Lakes region into southwestern Quebec during this period. Associated strong lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields are likely to impact a broad area east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard, initially including south-southwesterly flow on the order of 50-70+ kt around 850 mb, east of deepening surface troughing to the lee of the Blue Ridge. It appears that this jet core will gradually shift eastward into and across the Mid Atlantic coast by late afternoon, well in advance of the primary cold front, which might not advance east of the Appalachians until Wednesday evening. Guidance continues to indicate that more the substantive low-level moisture return off a modifying Gulf boundary layer will become cut off across the northeastern Gulf vicinity by early Wednesday. However, it remains suggestive that a developing return flow off the Atlantic will augment moistening across and inland the Carolina coast. Models also continue to indicate that destabilization through much of the warm sector may only become supportive of weak CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg or less. However, given the strength of the wind fields, and areas of stronger forcing for ascent, there appears at least a conditional risk for severe thunderstorm activity across a broad area. ...Southern Mid Atlantic... It still appears that a remnant convective band emerging from the eastern Gulf States will be maintained, with potential for substantive intensification as it advances across the Carolina Piedmont through Carolina and southeastern Virginia coastal plain Wednesday morning into afternoon. Although forecast soundings continue to indicate that lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will not become particularly steep ahead of this convection, it does appear that boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points increasing into the lower 60s) will contribute to near-surface thermodynamic profiles conducive to downward momentum transport. Given the rather large and clockwise curved low-level hodographs, a few tornadoes (perhaps a strong tornado or two) are possible, in additional to scattered straight-line wind gusts in excess of 65 kt. ...Allegheny Plateau/Mid Atlantic... Early period convective precipitation may contribute to boundary-layer moistening, prior to the onset of increasing insolation beneath a dry slot overspreading the region during the day. Followed by the onset of stronger cooling aloft, model forecast soundings indicate the development of thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest conditional and convective instability, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Guidance has been varied concerning the location and extent of scattered pre-frontal thunderstorm development within this regime, but the environment is likely to become at least marginally conducive to scattered organized convection, including supercells. ..Kerr.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEASTERN TEXAS EAST-SOTUHEASTWARD TO SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat for tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible today from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong upper trough/low will shift eastward across the central and southern Plains, and into the Mississippi Valley overnight. As this occurs, a deepening surface low will shift out of the Oklahoma vicinity northeastward, reaching Illinois by the end of the period while occluding with time. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep steadily eastward, reaching the west slopes of the Appalachians late. ...Eastern portions of Texas and Oklahoma eastward to the southern Appalachians/Southeast... A frontal band of convection is forecast to be ongoing/shifting eastward from far eastern Kansas/western Missouri southward into north-central/northeastern Texas. The storms will be moving through a warm sector featuring modest low-level moisture/weak low-level lapse rates, but intense shear. This will remain the situation with eastward extent across much of the severe-risk area, as the airmass preceding this system remains stable at low levels. Substantial low-level theta-e advection immediately ahead of the advancing front will support a decrease in low-level stability just prior to frontal passage, but it remains unclear as to whether any convection in advance of the primary frontal band will ever become sufficiently surface-based to realize the intene shear that will be present. As such, this remains a highly conditional scenario in terms of severe/tornado risk, but with local, high-end potential. With that said, ENH risk appears to be the most reasonable forecast, all things considered. Storms moving eastward across the Arklatex/East Texas early in the day will pose and ongoing, all-hazards severe risk, where locally more-intense convective elements evolve within a loosely organized band of storms. Convection should move across Arkansas and Louisiana through the afternoon, into/across the lower Mississippi Valley area through late afternoon. Slightly greater tornado potential may evolve across parts of Louisiana and southern Mississippi, nearest to the return of greater Gulf moisture (upper 60s to near 70 dewpoints). Even here, however, very weak low-level lapse rates should limit overall coverage of any more substantial severe potential. Storms will continue spreading eastward across the Tennessee Valley area and Gulf Coast states overnight, with continuation of isolated severe storms and all-hazards risk -- primarily supported by the strongly veering/increasing flow with height. ...Eastern Kansas to western Illinois... As the upper low pivots eastward across Oklahoma and Kansas through the day, and into Missouri by evening, cold air aloft accompanying the low will yield steep mid-level lapse rates. Any daytime heating in the wake of initial/prior convection across the northeastern Kansas vicinity could yield enough CAPE for isolated, low-topped convective redevelopment. Assuming this scenario manifests, a couple of the strongest storms could pose marginal risk for hail/wind and possibly a tornado. Any such risk would taper by evening. Farther east, across Missouri and into western Illinois, elevated storms east of the primary zone of convection may pose limited/local risk for marginal hail during the morning and into the afternoon hours. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/04/2025 Read more

WW 0017 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CDS TO 25 NNW CSM TO 5 SSW AVK TO 5 SSE P28. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 17 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC003-011-015-017-019-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055- 057-065-067-069-071-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-095-099-103-109- 119-123-125-133-137-141-149-040540- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CARTER CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON CUSTER DEWEY GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY GRANT GREER HARMON JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSTON KAY KINGFISHER KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN LOVE MCCLAIN MAJOR MARSHALL MURRAY NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-095-097-133-155-197-207-237-253- 275-337-353-363-399-417-429-441-447-451-485-487-503-040540- Read more

WW 0016 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NW AVK TO 40 SSE RSL. ..LEITMAN..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 16 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC007-015-019-035-049-077-079-095-151-155-173-185-191-040540- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARBER BUTLER CHAUTAUQUA COWLEY ELK HARPER HARVEY KINGMAN PRATT RENO SEDGWICK STAFFORD SUMNER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 16 SEVERE TSTM KS 040310Z - 040900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 16 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 910 PM CST Mon Mar 3 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Kansas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 910 PM until 300 AM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 60 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase and develop eastward across southern Kansas through the late evening and overnight, with bouts of large hail and locally damaging winds as the primary hazards. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west northwest of Medicine Lodge KS to 70 miles east of Wichita KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24030. ...Guyer Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 4 01:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Areas affected...portions of south-central and southeast Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 040113Z - 040245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms posing main a risk for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts are expected to develop by 03-04z. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed for portions of south-central and southeast Kansas in the next hour or so. DISCUSSION...Low-level warm advection across OK/TX into southern KS will persist through the evening and overnight hours ahead of an eastward-advancing surface low (currently centered over southeast CO) and attendant cold front. 00z regional RAOBs from DDC and OUN indicate a robust warm layer/cap atop a cool boundary layer, similar to forecast sounding guidance. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the ejecting upper low/shortwave trough and linear forcing related to the advancing cold front will act to weak inhibition some. However, convection developing by 03-04z is expected to largely remain elevated given a lack of a warmer/more moist boundary layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates (500 mb temps around -17 to -16 C) will support MUCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg. Strong deep layer flow with effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt will likewise foster organized convection. An elevated line of convection, perhaps mixed with some cellular elements, will sweep across south-central/southeast KS during the evening to overnight hours. Initial convection within the first couple of hours will pose a greater risk for large hail if storm mode can maintain cellular characteristics. Otherwise, some risk for isolated damaging gusts also will be possible even with elevated storm given strong low-level flow and restively quick storm motion. While the elevated nature of convection is expected to limit tornado potential across Kansas, low-level wind profiles are quite favorable for rotation. While a brief spin-up cannot be ruled out, the overall tornado risk is expected to remain secondary to large hail and strong gust potential. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 03/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 37019924 38089885 38289840 38429736 38399619 37899546 37009539 37019924 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are forecast to develop across parts of the southern and central Plains this evening, and continue to increase overnight. A few tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas... Mid-level short-wave troughing -- on the southern periphery of a Four Corners area upper low -- will continue to shift eastward across the southern Rockies and into the central and southern Plains tonight. An associated cold front now over the central and southern High Plains will likewise advance eastward through the end of the period. Ahead of this system, low-level warm/moist advection continues, on strong southeasterly low-level flow. This is resulting in gradual warm-sector destabilization, with an axis of around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE now evident across portions of western Oklahoma and western North Texas ahead of the front. Over the next couple of hours, storm development is expected to occur -- with storms likely to be slightly elevated initially. Large hail would likely be the primary threat with the initial storms. With time, convection is expected to grow upscale linearly, as the front advances into a steadily destabilizing warm sector. Storms should become increasingly surface-based with time, evolving into an organized/semi-continuous frontal band. By the latter several hours of the period, sufficient surface-based CAPE combined with strong low-level shear, suggests stronger/rotating updrafts within the predominant more linear storm mode, supporting an increase in potential for damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes through the end of the period. ..Goss.. 03/04/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 3 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 3 22:37:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains and Southwest. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... A highly amplified and progressive mid-level flow pattern is expected to continue over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Shortwave ridging will develop and quickly move eastward over the Southwest D3/Wednesday. To the west of the ridge, a strong trough will move over the Southwest and Southern Plains D4/Thursday and D5/Friday. Several days of very dry and windy conditions are possible over eastern NM and west TX as a lee low deepens over CO. Overlapping with dry fuels, widespread critical fire-weather conditions are likely to end the workweek and into the weekend. Fire-weather concerns may continue into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday as the main trough moves eastward and a second trough moves in from the west. Strong northwesterly flow is forecast to develop over the southern Plains as a second surface low intensifies. Confidence in sustained critical conditions is lower as the trough trends lower latitude and cooler conditions may develop over the plains. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels suggests some fire potential. Fire-weather concerns likely continue into early next week as progressive and amplified mid-level flow persists over the CONUS. Dry condition and strong winds look likely to continue over much of the southern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms should increase late this evening and merge into a squall line overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains. Several tornadoes, scattered to numerous severe wind gusts, and large hail are all possible. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Marginal Risk was expanded northward into southwest IA, where steepening midlevel lapse rates and sufficient deep-layer shear orthogonal to the low-level front could promote an isolated severe hail risk late in the forecast period. Elsewhere, the Marginal and Slight Risk areas were expanded slightly westward over the southern/central Plains, to account for the latest high-resolution guidance depicting slightly earlier convective initiation in an environment favorable for large hail and severe wind gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough with attendant 80-100 kt mid-level jet will eject eastward from the Great Basin and Southwest across the southern/central High Plains through tonight. As large-scale ascent associated with this system overspreads the High Plains, lee cyclogenesis will occur over eastern CO. This surface low should deepen further late tonight into early Tuesday morning as it develops into western KS, and as a Pacific cold front sweeps east-southeastward over the southern High Plains through the end of the period. Low-level moisture (surface dewpoints generally in the upper 50s to low/mid 60s) over south/central TX this morning will continue to stream northward over the southern/central Plains ahead of the cold front and an eastward-mixing dryline. Current expectations are for a cap to inhibit robust, surface-based thunderstorm development until late this evening, likely after 03Z. Once the large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough and the Pacific cold front begin to intersect with the warm sector, intense thunderstorms should quickly develop over parts of western OK into south-central KS. Steep mid-level lapse rates, cold temperatures aloft, increasing low-level moisture, and strong deep-layer shear will all contribute to an environment conducive for supercells, with an associated threat for large hail initially. A fairly quick transition to a more linear/QLCS mode is expected as the cold front moves quickly east-southeastward overnight across KS/OK and north TX. Ample low-level shear will be present owing to a 45-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet, and embedded circulations within the line will likely be capable of producing tornadoes, assuming sufficient boundary-layer instability to support surface-based convection. Even with various NAM/RAP forecast soundings showing near-neutral lapse rates in the boundary layer overnight, the strength of the low-level flow should still be more than enough to support at least scattered severe/damaging winds with the line as it sweeps eastward across the southern/central Plains through the end of the period (early Tuesday morning). Recent surface observations show at least low 60s surface dewpoints into parts of western north TX and the Red River vicinity of southwest OK. This appears to be a little ahead of schedule for some guidance, and with about 12 more hours of low-level moisture return likely ahead of the cold front, concern is increasing that around 63-64F surface dewpoints should be in place across parts of western/central OK into north-central TX by the time convective initiation occurs tonight. An Enhanced Risk for tornadoes and severe/damaging winds has been introduced across parts of this region where confidence in surface-based thunderstorms and the best combination of instability and low-level shear is forecast. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0133 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY.... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.... ...Dangerous, potentially historic, fire-weather conditions are likely over portions of the Edwards Plateau and south Texas Plain Tuesday... As the strong upper trough and intense 100-120 kt mid-level jet streak move eastward over the southern Plains, a deep surface cyclone will continue to rapidly intensify as it moves over eastern KS/OK. Trailing the surface low, a sharp dryline will also mix eastward with very dry surface conditions likely behind it. Afternoon RH values will quickly decrease with minimum values of 7-15% as temperatures warm into the 60s and 70s F. The dry and well-mixed boundary layer will intersect with very strong wind fields (1-4 km agl winds of 50-90 kt) south of the intense cyclone bringing very strong flow to the surface. Widespread sustained west/northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph are expected, with gusts of 50-60 mph possible across much of south-central TX. The potentially historic wind/RH overlap will support widespread critical and extremely critical fire-weather conditions over very dry and heavy fuels loads. ERC and 10 hr fuel moisture values above the 90th and below the 10th percentiles respectively will undergo further drying to near record levels through the day as winds increase. The combination of extreme weather and very receptive fuels will likely support very high-volume initial attack, extreme rates of spread, and uncontrollable fire behavior. Intense fire-weather conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon and begin to weaken Tuesday evening and overnight as an advancing Pacific front supports higher humidity recoveries and weaker winds. A secondary upper jet feature will rotate south over the northern TX Panhandle and western OK later in the afternoon and evening. As the surface low departs, a strong pressure gradient will allow several hours of very strong northwesterly winds of 30-40 mph to develop behind the low. Strong winds will overspread areas that have had and are likely to receive some additional wetting rainfall. However, the potential for 40-60 mph gusts and rapidly decreasing humidity, post-dryline, Tuesday afternoon may support brief elevated to near-critical fire-weather concerns. The primary change for the 20z update was to include a category 3 Extremely Critical area over the Big Bend and eastern Edwards Plateau to the I-35 corridor in south-central TX. Additional modifications were made to areas expected to see significant precipitation from overnight storms over north TX and central OK. Elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible over parts of the central Appalachians. See the prior outlook for more information. ..Lyons.. 03/03/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Mississippi Valley, supporting the eastward progression of a strong surface low from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley tomorrow (Tuesday). A dryline will sweep eastward across the southern Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. Ahead of the surface low, increasing southerly flow will advect an initially dry airmass over the central Appalachians, supporting some potential for wildfire-spread in this region as well. ...Southeast New Mexico into southern Texas... As the dryline advances eastward across central Texas tomorrow afternoon, the combination of strong isallobaric and downslope flow will support up to 30 mph sustained westerly surface winds across much of the southern High Plains into central Texas. RH should dip to 15-25 percent across the Texas Panhandle into northern Texas, with RH dropping to 10 percent in parts of southern Texas. Given drying fuels across the region, widespread Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced. A squall line is expected to develop across portions of Oklahoma into northern Texas late Monday night into Tuesday morning, potentially dampening fuels. As such, fire weather highlights in these areas may need to be removed if appreciable rainfall accumulations are realized. ...Portions of the central Appalachians... By afternoon peak heating, RH may dip to 30-35 percent across portions of northeast Tennessee into southern West Virginia, as an initially dry airmass is shunted northward with the approach of a surface cyclone and accompanying upper trough. Guidance consensus suggests that boundary-layer flow will increase during the afternoon, with 15 mph sustained southerly surface winds potentially coinciding with the lower RH for a few hours. Given that such conditions will overspread dry fuels, Elevated highlights are warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible across parts of the southern and middle Atlantic Seaboard on Wednesday. Isolated strong to severe storms will also be possible from the eastern Ohio Valley into parts of Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, as an embedded occluding cyclone moves northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes region. A remnant QLCS may be ongoing Wednesday morning from the Florida Panhandle and northern peninsula into the Carolina Piedmont region. Low-level moisture will continue to stream northward within the warm sector of the cyclone, with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints potentially reaching portions of the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic, and somewhat less robust moisture into parts of the Ohio Valley in advance of the primary cold front. ...Florida into the Mid Atlantic... While the QLCS that is expected to develop on D2/Tuesday may weaken overnight into early Wednesday morning, moistening in advance of the remnant QLCS could support some intensification through the day, with very strong deep-layer flow and low-level shear supporting some damaging-wind and tornado potential as the initial line moves eastward. In the wake of the initial convective line, there will be some potential for destabilization from the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic, as colder temperatures aloft move into the region. Depending on the extent of heating and moistening in the wake of early convection, redevelopment of organized convection will be possible during the afternoon and early evening, potentially accompanied by a threat for locally damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. ...Eastern parts of the Ohio Valley into WV/PA/western NY... Guidance varies regarding the extent of moistening and destabilization from eastern OH into PA and western NY on Wednesday afternoon, though organized storm development could occur as the primary midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft overspread the region. If deeper and more robust updrafts can be sustained, then a few organized cells or line segments will be possible, accompanied by some severe threat. Higher probabilities may eventually be needed, if confidence increases in sufficient diurnal moistening/destabilization across the region. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CST Mon Mar 03 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK...NORTHEAST TX...SOUTHERN AR...CENTRAL/NORTHERN LA...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MS...SOUTHWEST AL...AND THE WESTERN FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms with a threat of tornadoes, damaging winds, and isolated hail are possible on Tuesday from eastern portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. A couple strong tornadoes will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong and deep mid/upper-level shortwave trough and embedded midlevel cyclone will move eastward from the central/southern Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. A deepening surface cyclone is forecast to move eastward across KS through the day, and then northeastward across parts of MO/IL Tuesday night. Relatively modest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 40s/low 50s F) will stream northward within the warm sector of this cyclone into parts of the Midwest, with richer moisture (60s F dewpoints) remaining confined to parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...ArkLaTex region into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast... Organized convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period Tuesday morning across parts of eastern OK/TX and perhaps southeast KS. The extent to which the morning convection will become surface-based remains somewhat uncertain, but very strong low-level and deep-layer shear and sufficient instability will support a conditional risk of all severe hazards with the early-day storms as they approach the ArkLaTex region. A strongly sheared QLCS is expected to approach the lower Mississippi Valley region by early afternoon. The magnitude of the severe threat with this QLCS, as well as the potential for preceding supercells, will be determined by the extent to which low-level moistening can keep pace with the primary convective line. Very strong flow in the lowest 3 km and 0-1 km SRH increasing above 400 m2/s2 will support a threat of potentially widespread damaging winds and line-embedded tornadoes wherever the organized QLCS can remain near-surface-based. The potential for longer-lived supercells is more uncertain, but cannot be ruled out immediately ahead of the QLCS, and also where large-scale ascent is somewhat weaker in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Any persistent discrete or embedded supercells could pose a threat of a strong tornado within the very strongly sheared environment. The northern/eastern extent of organized severe potential into Tuesday night will be constrained by increasingly prohibitive low-level stability. However, given the strength of the flow fields, any organized convection that persists into late Tuesday and early Wednesday could pose some risk of damaging wind, with some tornado threat potentially persisting in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. ...Parts of eastern Kansas into Missouri... A few strong elevated storms could persist into Tuesday morning across parts of eastern KS into MO, potentially posing some threat of hail and locally gusty winds. The extent of diurnal heating in the wake of morning convection remains uncertain, but some surface-based destabilization will be possible during the afternoon as the midlevel cyclone and attendant cold temperatures aloft move over the region. If sufficient heating/destabilization can occur, then robust storm development will be possible in the vicinity of the eastward-moving cyclone, posing a risk of isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado. ..Dean.. 03/03/2025 Read more