SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe weather is not expected for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms have weakened considerably across the western North Texas/western Oklahoma vicinity over the past couple of hours. Storms -- and the associated upper low -- will continue moving east of the primary axis of instability, which will support a continued decrease in convective intensity. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will continue across portions of California and Nevada, but severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/03/2025 Read more

MD 0122 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 15... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK AND WESTERN NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Areas affected...parts of southwest OK and western north TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15... Valid 022145Z - 022315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 15 continues. SUMMARY...Some threat for isolated hail, strong gusts, and possibly a tornado will continue through late afternoon. DISCUSSION...An arc of thunderstorms is ongoing late this afternoon from southwest OK into western north TX, immediately in advance of a compact cyclone moving across the TX Panhandle and South Plains. Earlier small supercells have evolved into a more disorganized linear structure, and limited buoyancy (with MLCAPE generally 500 J/kg or less) may continue to limit the magnitude of the severe threat. However, low-level and deep-layer shear remain supportive of organized convection, and redevelopment of a small supercell or two and/or small bowing segments remain possible as the compact cyclone moves across the region through the late afternoon. Despite the meager buoyancy, cold temperatures aloft will support an isolated hail threat with the strongest cells. Localized strong to severe gusts will also be possible, especially if any small bowing segments can materialize, or if storms can develop farther south into a somewhat warmer and more unstable airmass across western north TX. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, if a supercell can favorably interact with low-level vorticity near a baroclinic zone located near and just south of the Red River. Stronger convection may eventually spread eastward into a larger portion of southwest OK and western north TX. While instability will generally weaken with eastward extent, strong ascent and favorable deep-layer shear may continue to support occasionally organized convection through late afternoon into the early evening. ..Dean.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT... LAT...LON 35469994 35589956 35499890 35069856 34039839 33519850 33299872 33259906 33249944 33349971 33639987 34109984 34429980 35469994 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An active weather pattern will continue across the CONUS, resulting in multiple days of potentially enhanced fire-weather conditions later this week across various portions of the Southern Plains. ...Day 3/Tuesday... A high-amplitude upper-level trough positioned over the south-central CONUS will shift east throughout the day. A mid-level jet will accompany this feature, with embedded 100+ kt mid-level flow. Diurnally driven mixing will allow for a broad region of enhanced westerly surface winds to develop across the Southern Plains, with sustained winds of 25-35 mph and gusts near 45-50+ mph. RH values will fall into the teens over most of this region, with single digit values likely with southward extent. Thus, 70% probabilities have been maintained, with some expansion made into Southwest/South-Central Texas. Localized Extremely Critical conditions may be possible for portions of the region, though details on placement remain somewhat uncertain. Additionally, the zone of enhanced winds/RH may extend into portions of eastern Texas for a few hours late in the day, however, fuels in this region appear less receptive to large-fire spread, precluding any further expansion of probabilities at this time. ...Day 5/Thursday... Another upper-level trough will enter the West Coast and de-amplify with time while merging with the aforementioned Day 3 trough that will be positioned along the East Coast. Consequently, enhanced mid-level flow will begin overspreading the Southern Plains on Thursday, with lee cyclogenesis commencing during the afternoon. These factors should produce a broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH over the southern High Plains. Enough agreement exists in medium-range guidance to introduce 70% probabilities for the region, confined to an area with the most agreement. Only slight adjustments were made to the 40% probabilities. ...Day 6/Friday... Another broad region of enhanced surface winds and lowered RH should develop across the Southern Plains as the remainder of the upper-level trough propagates through the region. Medium-range guidance continues to show less agreement, but enough to warrant maintaining the 40% probabilities at this time. ...Day 7/Saturday... As the upper-level trough exits the Southern Plains region, strong post-frontal winds may produce fire-weather conditions for parts of the region. However, the strength and placement of these features remain too uncertain to introduce any probabilities at this time. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0015 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 15 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0122 ..DEAN..03/02/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 15 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC009-031-033-055-057-065-075-141-149-022240- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKHAM COMANCHE COTTON GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA TILLMAN WASHITA TXC009-023-077-155-197-275-485-487-022240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY FOARD HARDEMAN KNOX WICHITA WILBARGER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 15 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 022010Z - 030100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 15 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM CST Sun Mar 2 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 700 PM CST. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will move quickly east-northeastward this afternoon and early evening while posing a threat for large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and 60-70 mph winds. Although low-level moisture remains limited, a tornado or two may also occur with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northwest of Clinton OK to 50 miles southwest of Wichita Falls TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes are also possible. ...20z Update... The latest surface analysis and satellite imagery show an arc of low-topped convection developing along a convergent dryline within the clear slot of the strong upper low ejecting eastward over the southern Plains. Recent surface obs show moisture increasing into the low to mid 50s F from roughly Childress, TX eastward into far southwestern OK and south to Interstate 20. Roughly 250-500 J/kg of MUCAPE is expected within a confined warm sector from the southeastern TX panhandle to the Red River vicinity of western north TX and southwest OK. Despite limited surface moisture, convection should intensify and strong veering wind profiles may support a few supercells. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will favor a risk for damaging gusts and hail with the more robust storms. Large low-level buoyancy (0-3km MUCAPE of 75-150 J/kg), ample vertical vorticity and strong shear could also support a couple of tornadoes. Contingent upon storms remaining semi discrete, this may occur within a localized corridor near the surface warm front over the southeastern TX Panhandle to far southwest OK and western north TX, where shear and surface moisture are maximized. Have extended the MRGL south where convection is developing along the dryline near I-20. Have also shifted the SLGT southward toward the deeper moisture and stronger buoyancy. See MCD#0121 and the prior outlook for additional details. ..Lyons.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...AND WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. The area delineating Extremely Critical fire-weather potential has been expanded farther south to encompass more area of far West Texas. No other changes were made to the Extremely Critical area, although some consideration was given to expand the area farther east into Northwest Texas. High-resolution ensemble guidance currently indicates potential for Extremely Critical conditions into this region, but too brief to warrant expansion at this time. Elsewhere, refinements were made to the western portions of the Elevated and Critical areas, mainly to remove northwestern portions of New Mexico where cool temperatures behind a Pacific cold front should now limit fire-weather potential despite the presence of dry/breezy conditions. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... The second and larger in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the Southern Rockies tomorrow (Monday), encouraging rapid surface low development along the High Plains. Behind a trailing surface dryline, widespread dry and windy conditions will prevail for several hours Monday afternoon, promoting dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds amid 10-15 percent RH will become common across much of New Mexico into southeastern Colorado and western Texas, necessitating the introduction of broad Elevated/Critical highlights. However, deterministic and ensemble guidance consensus (including high-resolution members) depict a belt of 30-40 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds coinciding with 5-10 percent RH for at least a few hours across portions of eastern New Mexico into Far West Texas. In this area, fuel receptiveness is approaching critical thresholds, and when considering the intense winds with very low RH, at least localized to potentially widespread extreme wildfire-spread behavior is possible, with Extremely Critical highlights introduced. Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop across the southern Plains Sunday into Monday. The southwestern most extent of these storms may occur across portions of western Texas into Oklahoma, which may temper wildfire-spread concerns in the northeastern portions of the Elevated and Critical highlights. As such, these particular highlights may need considerable adjustments in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorms, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Synopsis... A strong upper-level trough in the southern Plains will continue to shift eastward on Tuesday. A potent mid-level jet will overspread portions of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-South/Southeast. An intensifying surface low in the central/southern Plains is forecast to track northeastward into the Upper Midwest. A Pacific front, initially in central Texas, should provide some focus for storm development in the Sabine Valley. Another diffuse baroclinic zone/warm front farther east will also play a role in convective evolution/development. ...Sabine Valley into lower Mississippi Valley... Some amount of convection will likely be ongoing in portions of Central/East Texas early Tuesday morning. This, along with some cloud cover farther east, will have some impact on the exact degree of destabilization that can occur by the afternoon. Strong ascent along with the Pacific front will mean activity will continue to move eastward. Deep layer shear will support organized storms. Some linear clusters are possible, but supercells are also expected within what will be a relatively narrow warm sector. A zone where there may be greater potential for discrete activity is from central Louisiana into central/southern Mississippi. With shear vectors oriented more orthogonal to the boundary here, supercell potential should be higher. Furthermore, it seems more likely that greater surface heating will occur in this region as well. Should this environment be realized, a strong tornado would be possible. Otherwise, very strong low-level wind fields will support scattered damaging wind gusts even with more marginally surface-based storms. ...Mid-South... Questions remain as to whether convection will be surface based, particularly with northward extent. Temperatures aloft will still be quite cold and could support large hail. Even with less surface moisture/buoyancy, a very strong low-level jet could still produce damaging gusts even with shallow convection. Some extension of low severe probabilities may be needed farther north if confidence in this scenario increases. ...Alabama/Georgia... The eastern extent of the severe threat remains uncertain as buoyancy will tend to decrease with eastward extent. However, strong wind fields will support potential for stronger/damaging surface gusts and perhaps a tornado. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A rapidly developing line of thunderstorms will bring the potential for damaging winds, a few tornadoes, and isolated large hail for parts of the southern Plains Monday night. ...Synopsis... Shortwave, upper-level ridging across the southern Plains will give way to a strong upper trough progressing eastward through the Southwest on Monday. The strongest mid-level height falls are expected to occur during the late evening/overnight period into Tuesday morning. As this trough approaches, a central High Plains surface low will deepen and evolve southeastward with time. A Pacific front will be the focus for thunderstorm development from central/eastern Kansas into the Hill Country/Central Texas. ...Oklahoma/Texas... A line of thunderstorms is expected to develop along the Pacific front late Monday night as strong mid-level ascent overspreads the region. The highly amplified/meridional mid/upper-level winds will promote a rapid transition to a linear storm mode. Strong deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates could lead to briefly higher potential for large hail from initial supercells, but the strong signal for a linear storm mode would suggest large hail will likely remain isolated. Strong low-level wind fields are expected along and ahead of this line of activity. With at least low 60s F dewpoints expected in parts central/eastern Oklahoma into North/Central Texas, storms will be near-surface based to surface based and capable of damaging wind gusts. Low-level hodographs will also be enlarged across the warm sector. The exact magnitude of the tornado threat is a bit uncertain given the linear storm mode as well as marginal low-level instability during the overnight. However, the strength of the low-level shear will be sufficient to at least conditionally support a few QLCS tornadoes. The eastern extent of the threat will be limited by decreasing buoyancy into far eastern Oklahoma/Arkansas. The southern edge of the activity also is not clear. However, storms on the southern flank may have a greater potential to produce large hail. Confidence in the location of this activity is too low to increase hail probabilities at this time. ...Eastern Kansas... How far north surface-based storms will occur remains in question. It appears that there is at least marginal potential for strong/damaging surface gusts near the surface low track in southeast Kansas. Isolated large hail is also possible. In northeast Kansas, there is a signal for convection to develop on the nose of the low-level jet in some guidance. These storms would likely be elevated and have limited potential for damaging winds. Steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate deep-layer shear would promote some large hail risk. ..Wendt.. 03/02/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 2 17:34:01 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 2 17:34:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1031 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS... The previous forecast generally remains on track. Minor refinements were made to the northern periphery of the elevated and critical areas across portions of eastern New Mexico, West Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Surface observations indicate northerly winds and cooler temperatures entering this region in association with the developing lee cyclone that is progressing eastward. Farther south, the critical area was expanded into most areas of southwest Texas based on higher confidence, as depicted in the latest high-resolution ensemble guidance, of wind/RH conditions exceeding critical criteria amid receptive fuels. ..Karstens.. 03/02/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0119 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will traverse the southwest quadrant of the CONUS today, with the lead impulse ejecting into the southern Plains this afternoon. A vertically stacked cyclone with a trailing dryline will progress across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions behind the dryline that are capable of supporting rapid wildfire spread. As the dryline surges east across western Texas by afternoon peak heating, 25+ mph sustained westerly surface winds will coincide with 15 percent RH while overspreading dry fine fuels. Thunderstorms (some potentially severe) will initiate along the dryline across the northern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, potentially limiting the northeastern most extent of favorable wildfire-spread conditions. While dry thunderstorms are not expected to be the main fire-weather concern, the first few lightning strikes during storm initiation may support fire starts, potentially being further exacerbated by dry/windy conditions from the passing dryline. Please see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook for more information on the severe thunderstorm threat over parts of the southern Plains. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms appear possible from the eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and western north Texas this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main threats, but a couple of tornadoes may also occur. ...Southern High Plains... Elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of the TX Panhandle and northwest TX, as an upper low continues eastward over the southern High Plains. This activity may pose an isolated small hail risk in the short term with weak MUCAPE present, but greater severe potential remains evident later this afternoon and early evening. A very strong (80-100 kt) mid-level westerly jet is present in the base of the mid/upper-level low. Strong large-scale ascent associated with the left exit region of this jet will overspread the TX Panhandle/northwest TX and parts of western OK by this afternoon, encouraging robust thunderstorm development by 20-21Z. This activity will likely form along or just east of a weak surface low and attendant dryline that will be present over the eastern TX Panhandle and northwest TX. The primary limiting factor for the severe threat across this region still appears to be rather modest low-level moisture, with latest surface observations showing low to mid 50s surface dewpoints confined well south to parts of central/south TX. Even so, there is a chance for modest moistening though this afternoon, as ongoing elevated precipitation may help saturate low/mid levels to some extent. Mid-level lapse rates are also expected to quickly steepen through the day as the upper low moves eastward, and as cold mid-level temperatures gradually overspread the narrow warm sector. There may be a small/mesoscale corridor of greater severe threat this afternoon/early evening across southwest OK/western north TX and vicinity, where greater low-level heating appears possible behind the morning activity, and where somewhat better low-level moisture and related instability should be present. Current expectations are for the afternoon/early evening convection to pose a threat for mainly large hail and severe/damaging winds, as favorable lapse rates aloft and sufficient deep-layer shear support supercell structures initially. But, there is some veer-back-veer signal in the 2-5 km layer from various NAM/RAP forecast soundings, and convection may grow into a small bowing cluster fairly quickly (as shown by several HREF members). The severe threat will likely be limited in space and time by the narrow/small warm sector, with a more isolated/limited severe threat with eastward extent into central OK and north-central TX this evening due to weaker instability. Finally, the tornado potential remains a bit unclear, as low-level moisture will be quite limited. Still, a small zone of sufficient 0-3 km CAPE and ambient boundary-layer vorticity along the northward-developing warm front may support a couple of tornadoes given otherwise favorable low-level shear. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0610 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from western North Texas into western Oklahoma this afternoon and early evening. Large hail and strong/marginally severe winds, and a couple tornadoes are the primary hazards. ...Western OK and Vicinity... a compact and progressive upper low is tracking eastward this morning across southern NM, along with an accompanying 90-100 knot mid-level jet max. Large scale upper divergence and lift ahead of the low will likely result in scattered thunderstorm activity by mid-morning across west TX. This activity will spread eastward through the day into western OK, with a low-end threat of hail in the strongest storms. In the wake of the morning activity, relatively strong heating is expected to the east of the Caprock, where temperatures will climb well into the 70s behind the dryline. A narrow corridor of modest CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) should develop along the dryline during the peak heating period. Most CAM solutions suggest isolated convective initiation by 21-23z as the primary upper jet max noses into the region. Forecast soundings show very steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for supercells capable of large hail. Low-level shear profiles will be quite strong, but winds in the 3-5km layer exhibit a veer-back-veer pattern that may disrupt discrete storm modes. Nevertheless, a couple tornadoes are also possible. The primary severe threat is expected to remain focused across western OK and northwest TX where the best thermodynamic parameters are forecast. However, storms will spread eastward through the evening into central/southern OK and north TX with a continued isolated severe hail/wind threat. ..Hart/Grams.. 03/02/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... As the center of a broad and deep surface cyclone migrates across the lower Great Lakes region into Quebec Wednesday through Wednesday night, strong deep-layer mean wind fields will spread east of the Appalachians through the Atlantic Seaboard. This may include one south to south-southwesterly core of 50-80 kt winds in the 850-500 mb layer, coincident with a weakening convective band, remnant from storms developing on Tuesday across the lower Mississippi Valley. Destabilization with the approach of this activity may not be sufficient to support substantive re-intensification as it overspreads southern/middle Atlantic coastal areas during the day Wednesday, but it might still be accompanied by locally strong to severe wind gusts. In its wake, it also might not be out of the question that destabilization beneath the mid-level dry slot could become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development during the afternoon to the east of the Blue Ridge. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time. In the wake of the cyclone, much of the nation, from the Pacific coast into Great Plains and Southeast, appears likely to remain under the influence of one prominent belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific. There is some signal in the medium-range guidance that an embedded short wave trough might support a developing frontal wave across the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Seaboard vicinity late this coming week into next weekend. However, it is not yet clear that this will be strong enough to support an appreciable risk for severe storms. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sun Mar 02 2025 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN ARKANSAS....MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... One or two organized lines or clusters of thunderstorm, and perhaps a few supercells, will pose a risk for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and hail, primarily across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast, Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output remains a bit varied concerning the evolution and motion of a significant mid/upper trough, which is generally forecast to be in the process of shifting across and east of the southern Rockies Monday night into early Tuesday. However, guidance indicates that it will remain progressive, and likely to overspread much of the Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. In lower-levels a broad deep cyclone is likely to continue to evolve, with the center forecast to track from Kansas into the Upper Midwest by 12Z Wednesday. In the wake of a recent intrusion of dry/potentially cool air, associated with surface ridging shifting east of the Atlantic Seaboard, models indicate that an influx of moisture off the western Gulf Basin will advect eastward ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone. However, northeast of the southeastern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, the moisture return may remain elevated above a residual cool/stable near surface layer. Still, large-scale forcing for ascent and destabilization will probably be sufficient to support extensive thunderstorm development across the interior U.S., and a fairly broad area with at least a conditional risk for severe storms, given the strength of flow/shear in the evolving warm sector. ...Lower Mississippi Valley into Southeast... An initially well-defined near-surface baroclinic zone may extend from the Arkansas/Oklahoma vicinity southeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley at the outset of the period. While it appears that this boundary may become more diffuse while shifting eastward during the day, it may still provide the primary focus for an organizing cluster and/or discrete supercell development, as forcing for ascent associated with a short wave perturbation within the larger-scale mid/upper troughing overspreads the region. Of concern, models indicate that this feature will be accompanied by an intense jet core, which may include south-southwesterly winds of 70-100 kt in the 850-500 mb layer overspreading portions of Louisiana and Mississippi. These speeds appear generally forecast within the inflow layer of potential storm development, with speeds tending to weaken to 40-50 kt as they veer to a more westerly component in the potential downdraft source region. So uncertainty exists concerning the magnitude of potential downward mixing of momentum in convective development. Even so, particularly along the remnant boundary, the environment probably will become conducive to potential for damaging wind gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail across southern Arkansas and northern/ central Louisiana into Mississippi. As this activity spreads eastward Tuesday night, the extent to which near-surface thermodynamic profiles support a risk for damaging surface gusts and tornadoes across Alabama into Georgia remains unclear, but it seems likely to diminish with eastward extent and time. ..Kerr.. 03/02/2025 Read more