SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are less than 10 percent across the lower 48 States today. ...Discussion... Strong upper trough is moving onshore along the Pacific Northwest Coast early this morning. This feature will deamplify a bit as it digs southeast across the northern Rockies into the central Plains/upper MS Valley region by the end of the period. As this short wave shifts inland, surface pressures will build over the northern Rockies/Great Basin forcing a cold front into the eastern Dakotas-central NE-central CO by 26/00z. Large-scale forcing ahead of this feature will contribute to mid-level moistening within a steep lapse rate environment. Forecast soundings along/near the frontal zone suggest weak mid-level buoyancy, likely sufficient for at least shallow elevated convection. While a few of the strongest updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge, current thinking is the probability for thunderstorms is too low to warrant a risk this period. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms remain possible across the Florida Keys/far southern Florida this evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...01z Update... Strong 12hr mid-level height falls are spreading across the Pacific Northwest in response to a progressive trough that will advance inland after 06z. 100+kt 500mb jet will translate across southern OR and weaken late tonight as it shifts east with the short wave. Scattered convection is currently noted ahead of the main jet core, with lightning observed in the deeper updrafts, extending from off the OR Coast into southwest WA. Isolated strong wind gusts have been observed with this activity, and steep lapse rates appear somewhat favorable for allowing strong flow just off the surface to mix down. Have extended 5 percent severe wind probabilities to the WA/OR Coast to account for this scenario, primarily this evening. Low-latitude short-wave trough is digging southeast across the central Gulf Basin. Low-level warm advection persists ahead of this feature across south FL where a considerable amount of weak convection is currently noted. Strong 0-6km bulk shear favors the possibility for updraft organization, but poor lapse rates are limiting buoyancy, and low-level shear is mostly weak. Will maintain a MRGL Risk for the possibility of a wind gust or brief tornado. ..Darrow.. 02/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 041200Z Fire weather concerns will remain limited through the middle portion of the work week before increasing across the Southwest and southern High Plains beginning on D5/Friday through early next week. The general trend depicted in long-range guidance over the past several days continues to hold with an upper-level regime change anticipated heading into early March. Anomalously strong upper ridging over the western CONUS will gradually break down through the end of the current work week followed by a transition to a more progressive regime characterized by higher-amplitude upper troughs meandering across the Southwest and southern CONUS. As this occurs, robust surface cyclogenesis will become more probable across the Four Corners/Plains, resulting in strengthening winds over a region that has seen little precipitation over the past 1-2 weeks and increasing ERC values/fuel dryness. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions appear possible each day from eastern AZ to western TX beginning D5/Friday through D8/Tuesday, though confidence in the potential on any given day remains somewhat low. While the GFS/ECMWF both generally show the same evolution of the synoptic regime and the potential for fire weather concerns, considerable discrepancies regarding the timing and placement of upper-troughs and attendant surface features are noted. Additionally, GEFS/ECENS guidance appears to be too tightly clustered around their respective deterministic solutions, leading to limited confidence that the most probable scenario is being accurately captured by guidance at this range. For this reason, highlights are withheld, but will likely be needed in future forecast updates. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Feb 24 21:14:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Mon Feb 24 21:14:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON/OREGON... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late this afternoon through the evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong wind gusts are also possible from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington this evening. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with only minor changes. The Thunder area was trimmed over northern portions of the FL Peninsula. Widespread cloud cover and ongoing precipitation near a remnant front/outflow boundary should limit destabilization farther north. Over parts of South FL and the Keys south of the front, a low-end risk for isolated damaging gusts or a brief tornado will remain possible through this afternoon. A line of convection along a cold front over the eastern Gulf is forecast to spread eastward with a few rotating/stronger cells possible. However, modest lapse rates/buoyancy and widespread cloud cover will tend to limit updraft intensity and the associated severe risk. ...Northwest... As a strong upper low move onshore over WA/OR, cool mid-level temperatures and weak inland moisture advection may support weak destabilization over parts of the Northwest late this afternoon/evening. A few stronger, low-topped storms may develop along an associated cold front as the upper low moves onshore. An isolated damaging gust will be possible as low and mid-level lapse rates steepen and support strong downdrafts amidst enhanced flow aloft. However, buoyancy will remain very weak and widespread severe storms are not expected. See the previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No forecast changes are needed. Consideration was given to introducing an Elevated risk area across far southeast WY into the far western NE Panhandle where dry/windy conditions today have likely allowed fine fuels to dry in the absence of a snow pack, and 15-25 mph winds with RH in the 20-30% range are possible for tomorrow. However, model solutions that show this potential - namely the HRRR/RAP, which have a tendency to over mix - have not captured recent observed trends well. This suggests that these solutions may be too aggressive with heating/drying within the downslope flow regime for tomorrow, though trends will continue to be monitored. Localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible again Tuesday afternoon in the lee of the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains, but should remain too spatially confined to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 PM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough across the Midwest/Ozarks/central Plains will shift south and east on Wednesday. A cold front will accelerate southeastward in response. Limited moisture along the front will lead to low thunderstorm potential. Farther south, into the Sabine Valley vicinity, moisture return will be greater, but warm mid-level temperatures should prevent thunderstorm development. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A surface low will be present off the eastern Florida coast. The parent upper-level trough will be situated along the Florida Peninsula. This overall synoptic setup would suggest most of the thunderstorm activity should remain offshore. There is perhaps low potential for thunderstorms over land very early Tuesday morning, but coverage/confidence are too low for general thunderstorm highlights. Elsewhere, upper-level shortwave troughs will progress through the Ohio Valley and central Plains. Low/mid-level moisture appear too limited in both cases for any appreciable thunderstorm risk. ..Wendt.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0951 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...South FL... Morning satellite imagery shows a series of shortwave troughs over the Gulf, with an increasing cluster of thunderstorms about 150nm off the west coast of the FL Peninsula. This activity will track east-southeastward through the day and affect south FL by late afternoon and evening. Winds aloft in this area will be sufficient for a few organized/rotating storms, posing some risk of damaging wind gusts or perhaps a tornado. However, considerable cloud cover and dewpoints only in the mid 60s, combined with weak mid-level lapse rates, suggest that updrafts will struggle to attain much intensity. ...WA/OR... The next in a series of strong upper troughs is approaching the coast of WA/OR this morning. The associated cold front will move inland soon, crossing the Cascades and into the Columbia Valley by late afternoon and evening. Model guidance suggests a semi-organized band of showers and thunderstorms may accompany the front. Surface temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s will result in steep low-level lapse rates beneath cold temperatures aloft. Forecast soundings indicate strong southwesterly low/mid level winds, combined with sufficient CAPE for a few robust thunderstorms capable of gusty/damaging wind gusts through mid-evening. ..Hart/Weinman.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0919 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes needed. Windy conditions are being observed across central to southeast WY and the far western NE Panhandle, but morning fuel guidance continues to suggest fuels are not supportive of rapid fire spread. Additionally, morning guidance continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions will remain localized across central/eastern NM as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 02/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR SOUTHERN FL INCLUDING THE KEYS...AND OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OR AND WA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms will be possible across the Florida Keys and into far southern Florida from late afternoon through evening. Localized damaging gusts or a brief tornado may occur. Isolated strong winds are also expected from the Oregon Cascades into southeast Washington. ...Far Southern FL and the FL Keys... Shortwave trough currently progressing off the TX Coast is expected to continue eastward across the Gulf today, reaching the FL Peninsula by early tomorrow morning. Cold mid-level temperatures and strengthening mid-level flow that accompany this shortwave are expected to spread over central/southern FL and the FL Keys after 03Z. An attendant surface low attendant will progress quickly eastward just ahead of the parent shortwave. The general consensus among the guidance is for this low to be just off the west-central FL Coast around 00Z before continuing across the central FL Peninsula and into the western Atlantic by 12Z Tuesday. Moistening of the low-level airmass is expected ahead of the shortwave trough and attendant surface low, particularly after 18Z. Widespread showers throughout the day will likely mitigate buoyancy somewhat, but little to no surface-based inhibition is expected south of the warm front (which will extend eastward from the surface low across the central FL Peninsula) from the late afternoon onward. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along and ahead of the front as it gradually pushes eastward. Dewpoints near 70s across south FL and the FL Keys will result in stronger buoyancy and the potential for deeper, more long-lived updrafts. Strong vertical shear over the region supports the potential for a few supercells with an attendant risk for damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or two. The development of a low-level convergence zone is possible, which could result in a favored corridor for strong to severe storms. Currently, this zone is expected to remain just off south FL Coast, but a few storms in this area could impact the Keys. ...Interior Pacific Northwest... Recent satellite imagery shows an intense shortwave trough off the Pacific Northwest coast, moving quickly northeastward. This shortwave is forecast to continue northeastward throughout the day, reaching the coastal Pacific Northwest this afternoon and the interior Pacific Northwest tonight. A frontal band, with occasional lightning, is expected to develop along the leading edge of the strong forcing for ascent associated with this system. Temperatures could reach the upper 50s/low 60s ahead of this line in northeast OR/southwest WA amid steep low-level lapse rates and modest buoyancy. As such, the overall environment supports the potential for strong downbursts within the line as it moves across the region. ...Eastern Dakotas into the Mid MS Valley... The low-amplitude shortwave trough currently moving through MT is expected to continue southeastward today, moving across the northern Plains and IA before ending the period over IL. A compact but strong jet streak will accompany this shortwave, with 500-mb winds within this streak from 90 to 100 kt. The downstream airmass will be dry, and strong heating/mixing will help push afternoon temperatures into the upper 50s and low 60s. Despite dry low levels, some modest buoyancy is possible amid the deep mixing and cold mid-level temperatures. Consequently, a few shallow thunderstorms are possible as the strong forcing for ascent attendant to the shortwave interacts with this limited buoyancy. Small hail and strong outflow is possible with these storms, but overall coverage is currently expected to remain too isolated to introduce any probabilities. ..Mosier/Grams.. 02/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong mid-level trough will amplify across the East Coast on Thursday with a strong cold front sharpening along the Appalachians and moving into the Atlantic. Given the persistent continental airmass preceding the cold front with minimal moisture recovery, instablity should be quite weak. However, forecast soundings show some weak instability which could promote a few lightning flashes across the Carolinas and vicinity. In the wake of the cold front, dry air will remain across the CONUS and will penetrate well into the Gulf. This should limit any lightning potential on Friday and Saturday. By D7/Sun an D8/Mon, sufficient moisture recovery across the Gulf and inland penetration across the southern Plains and Southeast may result in the potential for thunderstorms and perhaps a few strong to severe storms. However, at this time, this potential does not appear high enough to warrant severe weather probabilities for either day. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes on Wednesday while a larger positively tilted trough develops across the Upper Midwest. This will accelerate a surface front south across the Midwest and toward the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Moisture will be limited along this frontal zone which will limit any thunderstorm potential with only some light, stratiform precipitation anticipated. Farther west, a strong mid-level trough will develop along the western CONUS with an area of strong high pressure within the Intermountain West. This will lead to benign weather conditions for much of the western CONUS on Wednesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain low on D2 - Tuesday across the CONUS. The pattern will favor light winds where the driest conditions are expected which will preclude the need to include any highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A shortwave will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern/central Rockies today, with a surface cold front sagging southward across portions of the high/central Plains. Behind the surface front, strong northwesterly flow is forecast to overlap drying conditions across portions of Nebraska and South Dakota. Relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent are forecast. Recent fuels guidance suggests that fuels within this region are not currently receptive to wildfire ignition and spread with recent rainfall. Some overlap of downslope warming and drying is possible across portions of New Mexico near the eastern slopes of Sandia Manzano and Sacramento mountains. Locally Elevated conditions will be possible but should remain too localized to include in highlights. ..Thornton.. 02/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1224 AM CST Mon Feb 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will translate from the Northwest to the northern Plains on Tuesday and Tuesday night while another mid-level shortwave trough will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. Instability will be limited in both areas and therefore no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. A few thunderstorms may develop off the east coast of Florida but should quickly move away into the open Atlantic as the mid-level trough and surface low move east over the Gulf Stream. No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 02/24/2025 Read more