MD 2131 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN GREAT LAKES
Mesoscale Discussion 2131 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Areas affected...eastern Great Lakes Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 062026Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging gusts, a few instances of large hail, and perhaps a tornado are expected this afternoon across parts of the eastern Great Lakes. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or two. DISCUSSION...A band of deepening convection is evident across parts of northeast Ohio and southern Ontario near a surface cold front and a cyclonically curved mid-level jet. These features should provide lift for continued convective development as the afternoon progresses. Heating has warmed parts of the area into the upper 70s to low 80s, and continued moist advection has increased dewpoints into the upper 50s, resulting in 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE per Mesoanalysis and a 20Z sounding from PBZ. The impinging mid-level jet results in 35-45 kts of effective bulk shear, which ought to be sufficient for supercells with the initial development. Given a supercellular mode and 7.7 C/km 2-6 km max lapse rates on the 20Z PBZ sounding, some hail is possible early. A tornado is also possible given 150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH, though this may be mitigated by higher LCLs, especially across eastern Ohio. In addition, storms may be undercut by the cold front, which is expected to lead to upscale growth into linear segments with time. Once this transition occurs, given strong low-level flow, damaging gusts will become the primary threat as storms move to the east. The eastward extend of the severe threat may be mitigated by the narrow plume of moist air combined with loss of daytime heating this evening. ..Supinie/Smith.. 10/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...ILN... LAT...LON 41537797 40667847 40077925 39638029 39638134 40018223 40438246 40838242 41148228 41618152 42657896 43267899 43427832 43277781 42877779 42567784 41537797 Read more

WW 0689 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0689 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 689 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA WV 062055Z - 070300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 689 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western New York Eastern Ohio Western Pennsylvania Northern West Virginia Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to continue to develop and intensify through the afternoon and into the evening across the Watch area. A few of the stronger thunderstorms will likely acquire supercell characteristics and pose an initial risk for large hail (1 to 2 inches in diameter) and localized severe gusts. Upscale growth into a mix of cells and linear segments this evening will facilitate the severe risk potentially becoming primarily a damaging wind threat (60 to 70 mph gusts) before this activity weakens late this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles north of Buffalo NY to 35 miles south of Wheeling WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 26040. ...Smith Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the 15% wind probabilities in western New York where the New York Mesonet indicated dewpoints reaching the upper 50s F. Elsewhere the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the 15% wind probabilities in western New York where the New York Mesonet indicated dewpoints reaching the upper 50s F. Elsewhere the outlook remains unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional information. ..Wendt.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... No changes have been made to the previous outlook, see previous discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough over the Northeast will continue to amplify through the day, while a large upper-level ridge builds into the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. A mid-level short-wave trough will sweep across parts of the Midwest into the central Great Plains throughout the day. At the surface, warm/dry conditions will develop across the southern/central High Plains during the afternoon, as post-frontal return flow develops in advance of the aforementioned short wave. This may produce locally elevated fire-weather conditions for parts of the central High Plains, but such conditions appear too localized to introduce an elevated area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Florida... Hurricane Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to track northeast across the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, approaching the FL west coast by early Wednesday morning. Strengthening deep-layer flow within the eastern semicircle of the hurricane will begin to overspread the FL Keys and portions of the Peninsula Tuesday night. As this occurs, low-level hodographs will become enlarged and favorably curved as SRH increases. Forecast dewpoints in the mid 70s F will provide sufficient low-level instability, and a risk for a couple of tornadoes is expected Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning across portions of the Peninsula and Keys. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 6 17:50:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 6 17:50:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern New England and the Florida Peninsula on Monday, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen over the Great Lakes and spread east over the Northeast on Monday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will shift east/southeast across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. through early Tuesday. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of southern New England Monday morning ahead of the cold front. This activity should move offshore by midday/early afternoon and pose little risk for severe thunderstorms. The front will become stalled over north FL, with a moist (60s to low 70s F dewpoints) airmass across much of the Peninsula. Daytime heating will allow for modest destabilization, supporting isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity, particularly south of the Lake Okeechobee vicinity. Weak instability and poor lapse rates will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. Meanwhile, Milton is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to become a hurricane today (Sunday). The tropical system will strengthen on Monday as it tracks across the south-central Gulf of Mexico. However, Milton should remain far enough west of the Florida Keys/southwest FL that tropical cyclone related tornado activity is not expected through early Tuesday morning. ..Leitman.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...17z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with minor modifications. Dry and windy conditions are likely across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes behind a strong cold front. The Elevated area was expanded slightly north across parts of Lower MI, where dry and breezy conditions appear more likely to overlap with receptive fuels for a few hours this afternoon. Otherwise, the Elevated area remains largely unchanged, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/06/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024/ ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough positioned over the Great Lakes region will shift east throughout the day, while a broad zone of enhanced mid-level flow overspreads much of the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold front will continue to progress southeastward, draped across parts of the Ohio Valley early in the day and reaching parts of the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Consequently, gusty post-frontal northwesterly winds will manifest throughout the afternoon/evening across a broad area of the upper Midwest. Sustained winds of 15 mph with RH values into the 20-30 percent range will be common across this region amid fuels that appear at least marginally receptive to large-fire spread. Therefore, the area delineating elevated fire-weather conditions has been maintained for the region, with a minor expansion made into parts of northern Ohio and southeastern portions of the LP of Michigan. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast later this afternoon into the evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a potent mid- to upper-level trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes. A speed max initially over northern WI/western U.P. of MI will quickly move east-southeast into the Lower Great Lakes through early evening. Strong, attendant forcing for ascent associated with this disturbance will overspread southwest Ontario into eastern OH by the mid-late afternoon. Coincidentally, a cold front over the Great Lakes will sweep eastward. A narrow plume of moisture will protrude northeastward through the Upper OH Valley with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s. Mid-level cooling associated with the trough will act to steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to around 7 deg C/km by mid-late afternoon immediately ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show generally 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon and weakened convective inhibition. The nose of the cyclonically curved upper jet will nose into the region and contribute to effective shear 35-50 kt. The latest model guidance suggests convective initiation occurring over the northeast OH vicinity between 20-22z. This initial development will likely be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a transition to a convective band featuring a mix of cells and linear segments is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Smith/Supinie.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN OHIO...WESTERN NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA...AND THE NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should occur this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Ohio into western New York/Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and western Maryland. Damaging winds and hail should be the main threats. ...Upper Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes and Central Appalachians... A vigorous upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will continue advancing eastward across parts of Quebec and the Northeast today. A related surface low over northern Ontario this morning will slowly occlude through the day, while a cold front extending across the upper Great Lakes and Midwest advances southeastward over the OH Valley and western Mid-Atlantic by this evening. A narrow corridor of modest low-level moisture will return northward ahead of this cold front, with surface dewpoints generally in the 50s to perhaps low 60s. Modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates overspreading the warm sector through the day, in tandem with diurnal heating, should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. A belt of enhanced (50-60 kt) mid-level flow attendant to the upper trough will move over parts of the upper OH Valley, lower Great Lakes, and western Mid-Atlantic this afternoon and evening. This strong flow aloft will contribute to substantial deep-layer shear (around 35-50 kt) and organized severe convection. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along the cold front in eastern OH/western NY and northwest PA around 20-22Z. This initial development may be supercellular given the strong deep-layer shear, with an associated threat for severe hail given favorable lapse rates aloft. A brief tornado or two may also occur. But, a fairly quick transition to a line is anticipated given the linear forcing of the cold front. As this occurs, the threat for scattered damaging winds should quickly increase as convection moves east-southeastward from eastern OH across western NY/PA and into WV/western MD. Given the fairly narrow warm sector, this activity should weaken by mid evening with the loss of daytime heating, and as it encounters a much less unstable airmass in the central Appalachians. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/06/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Cyclone Milton to move across the Florida Peninsula on Wednesday/Day 4. A tornado threat, associated with Milton, will likely affect parts of the Florida Peninsula throughout much of the day, and possibly into the night period. The magnitude of Milton as it crosses the Florida Peninsula, and any associated severe threat, is highly uncertain at this time. It seems probable that Milton will be in the western Atlantic by Thursday morning, which would push the tornado threat away from the Florida Peninsula. From Friday to Sunday, a quasi-stationary front is forecast to remain in the vicinity of the Gulf Coast, with the moist airmass to the south of the front forecast to remain mostly offshore across the Gulf of Mexico. Although some thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Florida Peninsula from Thursday to Sunday, instability is forecast to be too week for a severe threat. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Oct 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Milton, may develop Tuesday night across parts of the western Florida Peninsula. ...Western Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Tropical Storm Milton to become a hurricane and to move northeastward across the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. Milton is forecast to approach the western coast of the Florida Peninsula late Tuesday night. Strong low-level shear associated with Milton would be sufficient for an isolated tornado threat across much of the western Florida Peninsula, beginning on Tuesday night as Milton approaches the coast. However, there is considerable uncertainty at this range concerning the track of Milton. Although a Marginal has been added for parts of the western Florida Peninsula, the area with the greatest severe threat could shift if the forecast track of Milton changes. ..Broyles.. 10/06/2024 Read more