SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... The ongoing forecast remains on track. No changes were made. Elsewhere, hot, dry conditions will continue across the Southwest and warm and windy conditions will occur in the western Great Lakes region. Neither area will meet SPC elevated or critical fire-weather criteria, but both areas should be monitored. ..Marsh.. 10/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces will continue moving east today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. A strong surface low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario in associated with the upper low, as a trailing cold front sweeps eastward across the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely prevent thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent with the approach of the upper trough overspreads northern WI/MI. Thunderstorm development should occur this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, with storms generally tending to remain slightly elevated. MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support a few stronger/organized updrafts. The risk for large hail will exist initially with more discrete development given the steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as storms move east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong/locally damaging winds may exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. ..Bunting/Supinie.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may produce large hail and isolated gusty/damaging winds across parts of northern Wisconsin and Michigan this evening and overnight. ...Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes... A pronounced upper trough over the northern High Plains and Canadian Prairie provinces this morning will move quickly eastward today, reaching Ontario and the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes by Sunday morning. At the surface, a strong low over Saskatchewan/Manitoba will develop eastward into northwest Ontario through the period in tandem with the upper trough. A trailing cold front will sweep quickly eastward today over the Upper Midwest. Low-level moisture return ahead of this cold front will remain fairly modest with northward extent, with surface dewpoints generally reaching into the 50s. Rapid northeastward advection of an EML is also anticipated this afternoon across the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. An associated cap will likely hinder thunderstorm development until this evening, when stronger ascent and mid-level height falls preceding the upper trough begin to overspread northern WI/MI. As convective initiation occurs this evening along/near the cold front in northern WI and the U.P. of MI, thunderstorms will probably tend to remain slightly elevated. Even so, adequate MUCAPE and strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer will support robust updrafts and thunderstorm organization. Initially more discrete convection may pose a threat for large hail given the presence of steepened mid-level lapse rates and ample deep-layer shear. A more linear mode should quickly develop as this activity races east-northeastward across northern WI/MI tonight. Although there may be some tendency for the boundary layer to stabilize this evening with the loss of daytime heating, an isolated threat for strong to damaging winds may still exist given the expected strength of the low/mid-level flow accompanying the upper trough. Based on latest guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for wind eastward to include more of northern MI with this update. There is still a fair amount of uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and intensity this evening across northern WI and the U.P. of MI, and no changes have been made to the Slight Risk across these areas. ..Gleason/Dean.. 10/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mature mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to gradually shift eastward across southern Quebec on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday as a series of shortwave troughs rotate through the enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base. At the same time, expansive upper ridging will build eastward. By early D6/Thursday, this ridging is expected to extend from the Southwest northward across the Plains and Upper MS Valley into Ontario. Further eastward progression/expansion of this ridging is anticipated on D7/Friday, although some dampening is possible along its northern periphery over the Canadian Prairies. This pattern evolution will maintain a stable airmass across the majority of the CONUS. The only exception is across FL, where a tropical airmass will remain in place throughout the period. Additionally, medium-range guidance continues to suggest tropical cyclone development could occur over the Gulf of Mexico, with potential impacts across the FL Peninsula on D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, post-frontal airmass is forecast to be in place from the northern/central Plains eastward across much of the OH and TN Valleys early Monday morning. This airmass is expected to push farther east/southeast throughout the day as a cold front continues to progress southward across the Southeast. Modest low-level moisture will precede this front, but warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm chances across the Southeast. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible across FL where deeper moisture will already be in place and low-level easterlies persist. Thunderstorm development is not anticipated elsewhere across the CONUS, aside from a few early morning flashes near Long Island and just off the NJ coast. ..Mosier.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Monday. ...Synopsis... A dry, post-frontal airmass is forecast to be in place from the northern/central Plains eastward across much of the OH and TN Valleys early Monday morning. This airmass is expected to push farther east/southeast throughout the day as a cold front continues to progress southward across the Southeast. Modest low-level moisture will precede this front, but warm mid-level temperatures will limit thunderstorm chances across the Southeast. Some isolated thunderstorms are possible across FL where deeper moisture will already be in place and low-level easterlies persist. Thunderstorm development is not anticipated elsewhere across the CONUS, aside from a few early morning flashes near Long Island and just off the NJ coast. ..Mosier.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Great Lakes area as a surface cold front moves across the Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and high pressure ushers in across the central CONUS tomorrow (Sunday). Behind the cold front, sustained northwesterly surface winds approaching 15 mph in spots, will coincide with 20-30 percent RH from the Ohio and Upper Mississippi Valleys into the southern Plains by afternoon. Fuel receptiveness across these regions range from modest across the Ohio Valley, to high across the Mississippi Valley into the Plains, warranting broad Elevated highlights over these areas. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OHIO INTO MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central Ontario, with enhanced mid-level flow extending throughout the base of this system from the Upper Midwest into the Upper Great Lakes and OH Valley. A pair of shortwave troughs are expected to progress quickly eastward/northeastward within this belt of stronger flow, helping to pull the cyclone eastward while also inducing a negative tilt to the system. By early Sunday, upper troughing will likely extend from the Ontario/Quebec border southeastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Primary surface low associated with this system will remain occluded over Ontario throughout the period. However, a secondary triple-point low will likely be over central Ontario early Sunday, with its associated cold front extending southwestward through the Mid MS Valley. This low is forecast to push eastward across eastern Ontario during the day, with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. A narrow corridor of low 60s dewpoints is anticipated just ahead of the cold front, which is expected to combine with cooling mid-level temperatures and foster modest buoyancy. Initial thunderstorm development along the front is anticipated across eastern OH, where a favorable combination of daytime heating and low-level moisture will destabilize the pre-frontal airmass. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will extend across the region as well, which should allow updrafts to stay ahead of the quick-moving cold front for at least a few hours. Cold mid-level temperatures and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will support a hail risk with the strongest updrafts, particularly with initial development. Bowing line segments will contribute to a threat for damaging gusts as well. Surface winds will likely veer ahead of the front, limiting the low-level curvature. Even so, forecast soundings show southwesterlies strengthening from 15 kt at the surface to 40 kt at 700 mb, which does result in enough storm-relative helicity for some tornado potential if a discrete mode can be maintained. ...Gulf Coast into the Coastal GA and FL Peninsula... Easterly/northeasterly low-level flow will persist for another day across the northern Gulf of Mexico, as a broad area of low pressure remains in place. Showers and thunderstorms are possible within the moist airmass, but weak shear should keep storm severity low. ..Mosier.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN UPPER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of northern Wisconsin into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan this evening. ...Synopsis... Flow aloft will remain generally weak over the southern half of the U.S. today, where upper ridging will prevail. This ridging will -- however -- be interrupted by an elongated/weak trough comprised of several smaller-scale vorticity maxima, extending from the southeastern states west-southwestward across the Gulf of Mexico to northern Mexico. Farther north, a faster belt of westerly flow will prevail, with an embedded/potent short-wave trough forecast to move across the northern Plains through the day, and then the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes region overnight. Accompanying the upper trough, a surface low is forecast to advance east-northeastward across the Canadian Prairie, and into northwestern Ontario through latter stages of the period. A trailing cold front will shift eastward across the north-central U.S. and southward across the Plains -- reaching a position from Lower Michigan southwestward to the Ozarks, and then west-southwestward across Oklahoma to Far West Texas by Sunday morning. ...Central and northern Wisconsin north to Lake Michigan... As a cold front advances across the Upper Midwest area through the afternoon, a capped boundary layer should hinder convective development. As the boundary crosses the Upper Mississippi Valley around sunset, and the upper system advances, the combination of strong ascent and steepening lapse rates aloft should permit eventual development of showers and scattered thunderstorms. With a rather dry -- and nocturnally stabilizing -- boundary layer expected ahead of the front, convection should evolve within a slightly elevated but amply unstable layer. Strong southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient shear for organized/rotating storms -- and thus risk for hail is evident. Additionally, the strongly dynamic upper system/strong mass response suggests potential for downward transport of strong flow aloft -- potentially manifesting as severe-caliber wind gusts at the surface. Given the overall severe risk, will introduce a small SLGT/level 2 risk across this area, with the primary risk expected to be hail. However, potential for strong/gusty surface winds may also -- depending upon boundary-layer evolution -- warrant upgrade to 15% probability in later outlooks. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough, accompanied by a surface trough and cold front, will rapidly sweep across the central/north-central CONUS through the day today, promoting adequate dry and windy conditions for a widespread wildfire-spread threat. Fuels across the central Rockies to the central and northern Plains are very dry, warranting expansive fire weather highlights. By afternoon, 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds, amid 20-25 percent RH, will immediately precede the surface trough/cold front over the central/northern Plains, encroaching on the Upper Mississippi Valley, warranting Elevated highlights. Behind the cold front, 20+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will coincide with 15-25 percent RH, with Elevated highlights also included for the Central Rockies into the northern High Plains. Critical highlights have been maintained for areas of the central Rockies into the central Plains, where the cold front should pass by afternoon peak heating. Here, sustained northwesterly surface winds may exceed 25 mph at times, with RH potentially dropping to 15 percent for at least a few hours. ..Squitieri.. 10/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Convection generally continues to diurnally diminish across the Appalachians region, and across the Gulf Coast/southeastern Atlantic Coast states this evening. Thunderstorms persist at this time across Deep South Texas, near the Florida Gulf Coast, and -- to a lesser/more isolated degree -- across the open Gulf. Through the end of the period, lightning should remain confined to these same areas. No severe weather is expected. ..Goss.. 10/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z An upper low will exit the Great Lakes Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday then slowly move over southeast Canada and the Northeast early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging will build over the West through early next week, with a weak upper low forecast to move onshore over southern California early to mid-next week. Upper-level ridging is forecast to shift eastward over the central US by Day 7/Thursday - Day 8/Friday with upper-level troughing likely moving onto the West Coast late next week. Well above normal temperatures are expected across much of the West through mid-next week then expanding and shifting to the central US. ...Day 3/Sunday: Midwest and Plains... Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and central Plains, with locally critical conditions possible from Minnesota into Iowa. Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions may develop farther south and east into Illinois, Wisconsin, and Indiana, but recent rainfall will help mitigate the low forecast probability of critical winds/RH. Elevated conditions may also develop in portions of Kansas and eastern Colorado into northern Oklahoma as well as southern Wyoming. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 8/Friday... Dry and breezy conditions are likely from portions of inland southern California into the southern Great Basin on Day 5/Tuesday - Day 6/Wednesday as a weak upper low moves onshore. However, there remains too much uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this low and subsequent development of potentially critical winds/RH. A larger upper-level trough is forecast to move onto the West Coast late next week, but guidance is mixed on the timing and how far south/east stronger flow aloft extends into the Intermountain West. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 4 21:27:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 4 21:27:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. Little was changed to the existing outlook for the 20Z outlook except to remove the 10% general thunderstorm area from IL as the activity has diminished. Otherwise, general storms will remain possible from the TX Coast into much of the Southeast, south of the Great Lakes high and within the relatively moist easterly flow regime. ..Jewell.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough over the western Great Lakes will continue to quickly move east through the afternoon and a lingering thunderstorm cluster over west-central IL late this morning will gradually diminish as this disturbance becomes displaced. Farther south, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from parts of the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the Gulf Coast/Southeast. Weak flow will limit storm intensity in these regions. A vigorous shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies/Plains through tonight. While large-scale forcing and mid-level flow associated with the upper trough passage will be strong, thunderstorm coverage is expected to remain sparse due to a rather dry airmass present across these areas. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast remains on track as widespread elevated to critical conditions are expected from eastern Montana, North Dakota, and western Montana southward through much of Wyoming, Colorado, and Kansas into northern New Mexico and the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. The Elevated and Critical areas were both expanded based on the latest high-resolution forecast guidance. Of note, elevated and critical fire weather conditions are likely to continue from Day 1/Friday night into Day 2/Saturday AM in portions of southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, and northeast Colorado, with elevated/critical conditions beginning by late morning in the vicinity of the Critical area. There remains uncertainty on the northern/eastern borders of the Elevated area, and post-frontal dry/breezy elevated conditions are possible in portions of the Great Basin. ..Nauslar.. 10/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough and associated surface lee trough will progress over the Plains states and quickly eject into the Upper Mississippi Valley tomorrow (Saturday). Strong southerly flow will precede the surface lee trough, with a strong northwesterly surface wind shift noted behind a cold front that is poised to sweep across the northern Plains tomorrow afternoon. Widespread Elevated highlights have been introduced where sustained surface winds should exceed 15 mph amid 15-25 percent RH and very dry fuels. Critical highlights are in place along the Colorado/Wyoming border into portions of the Central Plains, where 25+ mph sustained northwesterly surface winds and 15 percent RH is expected immediately behind the cold front. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Fri Oct 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF WEST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the western New York and Pennsylvania into West Virginia. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity... A negatively tilted upper trough will shift east from the Upper Great Lakes into the Northeast on Sunday. A belt of strong westerly deep-layer flow will accompany this system and overspread the Upper OH Valley into NY/PA during the afternoon and evening. A narrow warm sector will bring upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints northward across the region ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Meanwhile, cooling aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7.5 C/km. This will contribute to modest destabilization across western NY/PA into WV and eastern KY (MUCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg). Effective shear magnitudes greater than 35 kt (somewhat less with southward extent) suggest organized storms will be possible along the cold front. Elongated and somewhat straight hodographs amid other favorable parameters indicate isolated large hail will be possible with the strongest cells. Strong gusts also may occur with this activity as convection quickly tracks east during the late afternoon/early evening. ..Leitman.. 10/04/2024 Read more