SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A cyclone is forecast to be over ME/Canadian Maritime Provinces early Thursday morning. Troughing associated with this cyclone will extend southward along the East Coast, with Tropical Cyclone Milton within the far southern periphery of this cyclonic flow. This cyclone is expected to shift northeastward into the northern Atlantic, with Milton ejecting quickly northeastward into the western Atlantic as well. Stable conditions are expected across the majority of the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cyclone, precluding thunderstorm development. The only exception is across the FL Peninsula in the vicinity of Milton. Expansive upper ridging is expected to be in place from the Southwest into the Upper MS Valley and far northwestern Ontario Thursday morning. Northern periphery of this ridging is expected to dampen throughout the period in response to a shortwave trough moving through the Canadian Prairie Provinces. Additionally, a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded within the larger scale ridging will likely drift southward from the central Plains into OK. A few elevated thunderstorms are possible across south-central/southeast KS and central OK Thursday morning amid the modest low/mid-level moistening and cold mid-level temperatures attendant to this shortwave. ...FL Peninsula - Hurricane Milton... Current forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Milton maintaining hurricane strength as it moves across the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. Given the expected early morning position, wind fields will likely have veered across the central and southern peninsula where the best low-level moisture, and associated greatest buoyancy, will be in place. Even so ample speed shear will support enough low-level curvature to support rotation and a low-probability tornado risk within any deeper, more persistent convection. ..Mosier.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... As Hurricane Milton moves across the Florida Peninsula today, several tornadoes will be likely across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula, into the Florida Keys. ...Florida Peninsula/Florida Keys... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue moving toward the western coast of the Florida Peninsula today. As the hurricane approaches this morning, scattered thunderstorms within the outer bands will move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. Later in the afternoon, a second band of convection is forecast to move across the southern and central Florida Peninsula. A boundary associated with a relatively tight thermal gradient will be located from south of Tampa Bay extending east-northeastward to near Orlando. South of the boundary, afternoon RAP forecast soundings in and west of the Lake Okeechobee area suggest MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range. In addition, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in the same area is forecast to be in the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range, with long and looping hodographs. This will favor supercell development with a potential for tornadoes. The HRRR suggests that cells within the second band will remain semi-discrete. All of this points to the possibility for a relatively confined tornado cluster this afternoon in the area to the west and north of Lake Okeechobee. A strong tornado or two could occur during the mid to late afternoon, when instability and shear will be locally maximized. The tornado threat is expected to persist through the late afternoon and into the evening as the band moves to the eastern coast of Florida. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 10/09/2024 Read more

MD 2133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL FLORIDA AND THE LOWER KEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Areas affected...southwestern coastal Florida and the lower Keys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090023Z - 090530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Supercell development posing risk for waterspouts/tornadoes is possible offshore of southwestern Florida coastal areas and north of the lower Keys much of tonight. It appears that this may not spread into coastal areas and inland until closer to or beyond daybreak. However, trends are being closely monitored. DISCUSSION...A weak/diffuse surface frontal zone in advance of Hurricane Milton has been a focus for persistent discrete rotating storms the past several hours, roughly 50-150+ miles north-northwest through west of the Key West vicinity. This activity has likely been supported by forcing for ascent associated with weak low-level warm advection and moderate to strong southwesterly deep-layer shear. Low-level hodographs are likely rather modest to weak, but clockwise curved, and in the presence of seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content this probably has been sufficient to support low-level mesocyclones occasionally producing waterspouts. Through late evening and into the overnight hours, as Milton slowly accelerates northeastward across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, the developing warm frontal zone probably will begin to surge northward to its immediate north and northeast. However, closer to southwestern Florida Peninsula coastal areas, the Rapid Refresh suggests that the boundary may remain quasi-stationary into early portions of the overnight hours, and may not begin approaching the Naples/Fort Myers vicinities until 09-12Z. Even at that time, low-level hodographs may only just be in the process of modest enlargement, as flow around 850 mb becomes southeasterly and begins to increase in excess of 30 kt. And, based on forecast soundings, appreciable boundary-layer destabilization may not develop inland of coastal areas until after daybreak. ..Kerr/Edwards.. 10/09/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY... LAT...LON 25238364 25588350 26158314 26078224 25848148 25408105 24968121 24668212 24248280 24538355 25238364 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat, associated with Hurricane Milton, is expected to develop from the Florida Keys this evening northeastward across parts of the southern Florida Peninsula late tonight. ...Florida Keys/ Western and Southern Florida Peninsula... The National Hurricane Center is forecasting Hurricane Milton to continue to move northeastward across the southern Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the track of Milton, visible satellite imagery shows cold cloud tops associated with a large area of convection over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Thunderstorms within this area will move toward south Florida this evening into tonight. The latest RAP has moderate instability analyzed from the Florida Keys into far south Florida, where MLCAPE is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Key West has 0-6 km shear of 30 to 35 knots, and 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 200 ms/s2. RAP forecast soundings gradually increase low-level shear as Hurricane Milton approaches tonight, which should result in an isolated tornado threat across the Florida Keys and along the southwest Florida Peninsula coast. As Hurricane Milton moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight, an isolated tornado threat is also expected to develop across parts of south Florida, as instability and low-level shear increase. The threat over much of south Florida is expected to be concentrated after 09Z. ..Broyles.. 10/09/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 8 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 8 22:06:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z Confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns over the CONUS through the extended forecast period is low. Strong ridging in place over the central and western US will remain through midweek. Stronger mid-level flow, and a resulting increase in surface winds, will begin to develop over parts of the northern Rockies and Great Basin D3/Thursday and D4/Friday, as a strong cold front progresses eastward. The increase in winds may overlap with areas of dry fuels and continued warm/dry conditions supporting some elevated fire-weather concerns. However, the air mass behind the front should quickly moderate, casting uncertainty on how widespread the fire-weather threat will be. Some fire-weather risk may extended into parts of the Plains and Great Basin late this week and into this weekend. Exact details with the frontal position/timing remain limited, but some potential for dry and windy conditions will overlap with very receptive fuels. A second stronger front will rapidly progress southward over the Rockies and central US later this weekend and into next week. This could support another period of dry and windy conditions across the Plains and Great Basin, but forecast confidence remains limited. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of west-central/south Florida and the Keys. ...20Z Update... Outside of minor adjustments to the General Thunderstorm areas over the Great Basin and Lower Great Lakes (based on the latest satellite and radar data), no changes were made to the outlook with this update. Any organized thunderstorms capable of producing strong gusts and brief waterspouts/tornadoes should generally remain offshore of Southwest FL and north/west of the Keys until the overnight/early morning hours -- when the stronger low-level shear and mesoscale forcing accompanying Hurricane Milton overspread the area. ..Weinman.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... The prior forecast remains on track with no changes. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in the lee of the Sierra and across parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies Wednesday. However, surface winds are only briefly expected to reach 15 mph, with overlap of the lower relative humidity air mass unlikely to be widespread. This will limit overall fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z update... The prior forecast remains on track with no changes. Brief, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in the lee of the Sierra and across parts of the northern Great Basin/Rockies Wednesday. However, surface winds are only briefly expected to reach 15 mph, with overlap of the lower relative humidity air mass unlikely to be widespread. This will limit overall fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will eject into the Atlantic while a pronounced mid-level impulse will traverse the Northwest tomorrow (Wednesday). At the surface, high pressure will dominate the western and eastern CONUS while the Plains states experience modest lee troughing. Overall, dry low-level conditions will persist across much of the western and central U.S. through the day, but with weak or variable winds, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Florida... The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Hurricane Milton over the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. The hurricane is expected to track northeast through the day, moving offshore the FL east coast during the late morning or afternoon. This forecast position will result in mostly veering south/southwesterly low-level flow across the central and southern Peninsula through the period. However, low-level hodographs will remain favorably curved given strong vertical speed shear. The very moist boundary-layer, with mid-70s F dewpoints, will provide sufficient low-level instability to sustain some stronger updrafts, and isolated rotating cells within rainbands will continue to pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes through Thursday afternoon. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will remain possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula on Thursday. ...Florida... The latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the center of Hurricane Milton over the central FL Peninsula Thursday morning. The hurricane is expected to track northeast through the day, moving offshore the FL east coast during the late morning or afternoon. This forecast position will result in mostly veering south/southwesterly low-level flow across the central and southern Peninsula through the period. However, low-level hodographs will remain favorably curved given strong vertical speed shear. The very moist boundary-layer, with mid-70s F dewpoints, will provide sufficient low-level instability to sustain some stronger updrafts, and isolated rotating cells within rainbands will continue to pose a risk for a couple of tornadoes through Thursday afternoon. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday. ...Florida... The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Milton to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. As the hurricane tracks northeast across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, low to midlevel southeasterly flow will increase across the Keys and Peninsula. This will result in increasing SRH and enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid a very moist airmass (mid 70s F dewpoints). The increasing flow field across Florida will coincide with peak heating, resulting in sufficient instability to maintain isolated stronger updrafts within outer rainbands that may approach the area by afternoon. Favorable conditions for a few tropical cyclone related tornadoes will persist into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1201 PM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND KEYS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible across the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys as Hurricane Milton moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and Florida on Wednesday into early Thursday. ...Florida... The latest National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hurricane Milton to make landfall along the west-central Florida coast Wednesday night or early Thursday. As the hurricane tracks northeast across the eastern Gulf on Wednesday, low to midlevel southeasterly flow will increase across the Keys and Peninsula. This will result in increasing SRH and enlarged, looping low-level hodographs amid a very moist airmass (mid 70s F dewpoints). The increasing flow field across Florida will coincide with peak heating, resulting in sufficient instability to maintain isolated stronger updrafts within outer rainbands that may approach the area by afternoon. Favorable conditions for a few tropical cyclone related tornadoes will persist into the nighttime hours. ..Leitman.. 10/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic while a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast, with upper-ridging building in between both troughs over the central U.S. today. Widespread surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS, promoting dry but relatively cool conditions, with light or variable surface winds common. On the larger scale, fire weather conditions should be quiescent, though some localized wildfire potential cannot be ruled out from the Interior West to the OH Valley during afternoon peak heating given dry fuels and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, see the previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 10/08/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will approach the Atlantic while a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast, with upper-ridging building in between both troughs over the central U.S. today. Widespread surface high pressure will dominate much of the CONUS, promoting dry but relatively cool conditions, with light or variable surface winds common. On the larger scale, fire weather conditions should be quiescent, though some localized wildfire potential cannot be ruled out from the Interior West to the OH Valley during afternoon peak heating given dry fuels and lower RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CDT Tue Oct 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated tornado threat associated with Hurricane Milton may develop late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the central/southern Florida Peninsula and the Keys. ...Florida... The latest NHC forecast shows Hurricane Milton moving into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Milton's wind field is also forecast to expand through the period, with enlarging hodographs expected initially near the Keys and spreading north-northeast into the southern and southwest parts of the Peninsula during the 09/06-12 UTC period. Given a moist/tropical airmass in place across the FL Straits and Keys this afternoon, a gradual northward movement of this airmass coincident with the strengthening wind fields, will support potential for transient supercell structure with the stronger cells embedded in convective bands. As a result, a risk for a couple of brief tornadoes may exist across these areas during the 09/06-12 UTC time frame. ..Smith/Thornton.. 10/08/2024 Read more