WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNE SAV TO 25 SE OGB TO 30 WSW FLO TO 15 WSW SOP TO 35 SE GSO TO 20 S DAN TO 25 SSE LYH. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...RNK...MHX...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC001-017-019-037-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093- 101-105-107-125-127-129-135-141-145-153-155-163-165-181-183-185- 191-195-051640- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE BLADEN BRUNSWICK CHATHAM COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LEE LENOIR MOORE NASH NEW HANOVER ORANGE PENDER PERSON RICHMOND ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC015-019-027-029-031-033-035-041-043-051-067-069-089-051640- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0027 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE CTY TO 35 SSE AYS TO 35 ENE AYS TO 30 WSW SAV TO 30 SSW OGB TO 30 SSW OGB. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-089-051540- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL NASSAU GAC025-029-039-049-051-103-127-179-183-191-305-051540- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN CHARLTON CHATHAM EFFINGHAM GLYNN LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH WAYNE SCC013-049-053-051540- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND INTO SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur across parts of Florida and east Georgia, and also from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA south to north FL... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low meandering east over the mid MS Valley towards the southern Great Lakes. The larger-scale trough will shift eastward from the lower OH Valley/central Gulf Coast through the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic states by daybreak Thursday. An ongoing convective band in the form of a broken QLCS structure extends from western NC southward into north FL. Strong southerly low-level flow is aiding in the transport of richer moisture (lower 60s dewpoints into SC) northward ahead of the convective band. Little to no lightning has been observed with the band this morning, but as it moves eastward into a slightly more buoyant airmass from central SC east/northeast into VA, the squall line is forecast to intensify coincident with modest diurnal heating. Very strong low to deep-layer shear will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the band. While weak instability is forecast farther south over GA/FL, large-scale ascent will be lifting north of this region. Strong deep-layer flow will still be in place, and coupled with modest instability, this should result in some continued organized convection capable of strong to severe gusts. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Farther north, instability will be quite limited given a cooler boundary layer and dewpoints generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s F. However, cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE 250-500 J/kg. Additionally, closer to the surface low, vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt, will support isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps linear segments. Strong to severe gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible with this activity this afternoon before weakening this evening. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/05/2025 Read more

MD 0146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0622 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...much of central South and North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 051222Z - 051445Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The environment is beginning to rapidly change, and a ramp up in severe storm potential is likely. Damaging winds and brief tornadoes may develop through midday. DISCUSSION...A strongly forced line of convection continues to push east across the western Carolinas and southeast GA this morning, with strong gusts on the order of 40 kt common with this wind shift. Although bulk CAPE values are currently low, this will likely change over the next few hours, as low-level moisture streams in from the south. Local radar indeed shows showers now evident in a north-south streamer off the ocean. As the front interacts with the moistening air mass, conditions will continually become more favorable for rotation within the line, with brief tornadoes and damaging winds expected. Shear is extremely strong with 0-1 SRH over 500 m2/s2 over the entire region. Further, as pockets of heating develop, additional more discrete supercells may develop, most likely during the afternoon and perhaps to the east of this early day regime. ..Jewell/Smith.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 32927939 32628000 32578028 32578076 32648110 32868143 33028151 33388149 34528122 34998106 35258089 35708042 35927965 35917891 35767846 35297828 33917836 33837847 33757865 33437903 33137912 32927939 Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0026 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SSE TLH TO 10 WSW VLD TO 35 W AYS TO 25 SSW VDI TO 35 NNE VDI TO 15 SSE AGS. WW 25 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 051500Z. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...FFC...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 25 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC003-023-031-047-067-079-089-121-123-051500- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER COLUMBIA DUVAL HAMILTON LAFAYETTE MADISON NASSAU SUWANNEE TAYLOR GAC001-003-005-025-029-031-039-043-049-051-065-101-103-109-127- 165-173-179-183-185-191-229-251-267-279-299-305-051500- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPLING ATKINSON BACON BRANTLEY BRYAN BULLOCH CAMDEN CANDLER CHARLTON CHATHAM CLINCH ECHOLS EFFINGHAM EVANS GLYNN JENKINS LANIER LIBERTY Read more

WW 25 SEVERE TSTM FL GA SC CW 050815Z - 051500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 25 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North Florida Southern into Southeast Georgia Southern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 315 AM until 1000 AM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A squall line will move eastward across the Watch area overnight into the morning. Damaging gusts ranging 55-70 mph are possible with the stronger inflections and bowing segments within the convective line. A brief tornado is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles north northeast of Vidalia GA to 55 miles south of Valdosta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 23...WW 24... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 350. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Smith Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights appears likely to linger across much of eastern Canada and the U.S. Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast into this weekend, as broad ridging builds in the subtropical and southern mid-latitudes. This latter development is forecast to occur downstream of a significant short wave trough emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, with an embedded closed low forming across the Southwest into southern Rockies by 12Z Saturday. Medium-range guidance indicates that this perturbation will remain progressive, as a significant upstream short wave trough rapidly progresses across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific, toward the southern California coast over the weekend. It still appears that the lead short wave will become increasingly sheared within a confluent regime east of the Rockies through the Atlantic Seaboard. The ECENS/ECMWF-based output and GEFS/GFS-based output remain varied concerning how fast and the extent to which this occurs, with the latter guidance still indicating a bit more notable surface wave development along a frontal zone across the Gulf coast region. There does appear a consensus that Gulf boundary-layer modification may support a notable plume of returning low-level moisture ahead of the mid-level wave, across Gulf coastal areas into and along the frontal zone. Beneath initially steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, guidance indicates that this will support modest potential instability in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. This could lead to a corridor of vigorous thunderstorm development on Saturday, with stronger convection possibly becoming supportive of severe hail and perhaps locally strong surface gusts. It remains unclear whether this will setup near immediate upper Texas through north central Gulf coastal areas, or as far north as the Ark-La-Tex through central/northern Mississippi and Alabama. Stronger frontal wave development would probably support more substantive and further inland severe weather potential, which could spread across parts of the southern Atlantic Seaboard on Sunday. Due to the low predictability at this time, and the somewhat marginal nature of the severe threat, severe weather probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent. Into early next week and beyond, as the lower heights shift out of the Northeast, a series of amplified, but progressive waves within the westerlies emanating from the Pacific may contribute to periodic, potentially significant cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies, However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited. Read more

MD 0145 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 24... FOR FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...Florida Panhandle into parts of central to southern Georgia Concerning...Tornado Watch 24... Valid 050735Z - 051100Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 24 continues. SUMMARY...Sporadic gusts near severe levels will remain possible along the cold front as it progresses into central and southern Georgia, and sweeps across the Florida Panhandle. DISCUSSION...A high-reflectivity line of thunderstorms persists along the cold front, with the bulk of the lightning activity extending from southwest GA southward. While surface-based CAPE is very low in most areas of GA, extreme shear coupled with brief heavy precipitation within the line may augment surface gusts. Meanwhile, slightly better moisture with low 60s F dewpoints are now into southern GA, with mid 60s along the northern Gulf Coast. Robust supercells are indicated well offshore, and should largely remain over the water for much of the night. Otherwise, the primary area of concern will be the frontal segment now over the FL Panhandle and extending into southwest GA. Here, pressure falls are currently maximized, and gusts over 44 kt have been measured recently. As such, the primary risk over the next few hours should remain largely within tornado watch 24, but portions of the squall line just north and moving into central GA will need to be monitored for watch potential given such strong shear and readily gusty wind environment. ..Jewell.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 29768613 30378578 31618501 32298468 32928445 33458444 33658446 33868443 34278451 34498433 34468393 34148365 33408356 32818353 32108340 31088338 30448363 29948423 29518498 29498567 29638613 29768613 Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW AAF TO 20 WNW AAF TO 35 WSW TLH TO 20 NW TLH TO 25 W MGR TO 10 E ABY TO 30 NE ABY. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-051040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC007-037-087-095-131-201-205-253-273-051040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN DECATUR DOUGHERTY GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE TERRELL GMZ730-750-752-755-051040- CW Read more

WW 0024 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SW AAF TO 20 WNW AAF TO 35 WSW TLH TO 20 NW TLH TO 25 W MGR TO 10 E ABY TO 30 NE ABY. ..JEWELL..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC005-013-037-039-045-063-073-077-129-051040- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN FRANKLIN GADSDEN GULF JACKSON LEON LIBERTY WAKULLA GAC007-037-087-095-131-201-205-253-273-051040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER CALHOUN DECATUR DOUGHERTY GRADY MILLER MITCHELL SEMINOLE TERRELL GMZ730-750-752-755-051040- CW Read more

WW 24 TORNADO AL FL GA CW 050450Z - 051200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 24 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 PM CST Tue Mar 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Alabama Florida Panhandle Southwest Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night and Wednesday morning from 1050 PM until 600 AM CST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A band of storms will continue to progress eastward across the region through late evening and overnight, with tornado and damaging wind risks. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles northwest of Panama City FL to 20 miles north northeast of Tallahassee FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 22...WW 23... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0025 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0025 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Probabilities for thunderstorms appear negligible across the U.S. Friday through Friday night. ...Discussion... A broad and deep, occluded cyclone, initially centered over southwestern Quebec, may undergo substantive further deepening during this period, with a new primary center developing and migrating north of the Canadian Maritimes into Newfoundland and Labrador. In its wake, models indicate that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. As much of the remainder of the U.S. remains under the influence of a belt of westerlies emanating from the mid-latitude Pacific, mid-level flow is likely to become increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains, downstream of an evolving low within larger-scale troughing digging inland of the southern California coast by 12Z Friday. This perturbation is forecast to turn eastward to the north of the Southwestern international border vicinity Friday through Friday night, preceded by an increasingly sheared perturbation across the central Great Plains into middle Mississippi Valley. In association with the lead impulse, an initially more prominent surface low over the central Great Plains is forecast to weaken considerably while rapidly translating eastward, trailed by a reinforcing cold front which may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward coastal areas between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Four Corners States... Beneath the mid-level cold core overspreading the Southwest and southern Great Basin into southern Rockies, it appears that a cold and/or dry boundary layer (even with insolation) will tend to minimize the risk for weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0143 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 0143 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of western and central Iowa into southern Minnesota Concerning...Blizzard Valid 050517Z - 050915Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow should occur for at least a few more hours. Occasional blizzard conditions remain possible. DISCUSSION...A surface low over northern MO continues to deepen while tracking toward the Great Lakes. Across the northwest quadrant of the surface low, surface observations from western IA into southern MN have shown north-northwesterly surface winds exceeding 35 kts amid heavy snow and visibility reduced to at least a half mile in spots. These conditions should continue across the northwestern quadrant of the surface low for at least a few more hours, as also suggested by the latest high-resolution model guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 44109207 42059332 40649425 40119454 39959500 40169562 41069612 41569616 42939607 43749573 43949535 44739408 45219303 45169243 44919209 44109207 Read more

MD 0144 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 23... FOR FAR EASTERN ALABAMA AND NORTHWESTERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0144 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Tue Mar 04 2025 Areas affected...Far eastern Alabama and northwestern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23... Valid 050536Z - 050730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 23 continues. SUMMARY...Damaging winds are expected along the surging squall line. DISCUSSION...Strongly forced squall line continues its eastward progression at roughly 30kt. While buoyancy remains weak, very strong ESRH is noted ahead of the convection. Latest 1km VAD winds at FFC are 70kt and this may continue to favor stronger flow mixing down as the linear MCS advances east over the next few hours. With time, forecast soundings do suggest convection will gradually weaken, perhaps limiting the downward transfer of flow. Until then, damaging winds are likely along the line. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 32268529 34688492 34598395 32078440 32268529 Read more