SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ..Halbert.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR TYPO IN SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... Strong cyclogenesis appears underway near the Aleutians and, by early Saturday, models indicate that a broad, deep cyclone will become centered across the northeastern Pacific/Gulf of Alaska, to the east of the Aleutians. This is forecast to lead to amplifying flow across the northern mid-latitudes of North America, including building mid-level ridging to the east of the Canadian Rockies and digging downstream mid-level troughing across the eastern Canadian Prairies into the Upper Midwest by the end of the period. In lower latitudes, a modest mid-level trough likely will be forced inland across the Oregon/northern California coast, suppressing initial mid-level ridging across the Great Basin into southern Rockies. Downstream, in the wake of the weakening remnants of Milton, forecast to continue migrating east-northeastward through the subtropical Atlantic, a remnant weak frontal zone, initially near or just south of the Florida Keys, is forecast to weaken further. It appears that this will occur beneath generally steady or slowly rising mid-level heights, as a sheared mid-level perturbation shifts across and offshore of northern Florida. Seasonably moist air will generally remain confined to the south of the weakening frontal zone, but some low-level moistening is forecast along an initially quasi-stationary segment of a frontal zone, to the north of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys by early Saturday. ...Portions of the Midwest into upper Ohio Valley... Models suggest that weak forcing for ascent and warm mid-levels will suppress thunderstorm development along and south of the initially quasi-stationary frontal zone. However, downstream of the southern periphery of the digging mid-level troughing, weak destabilization rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection may contribute to thunderstorm development within a narrow corridor above the frontal zone/well to the north of the surface front, mainly Saturday night. Given the generally weak forecast instability and cloud-bearing layer shear, the potential for severe hail in stronger storms seems low. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis... Weak flow aloft will prevail today over the southern half of the U.S., while a belt of fast west-northwesterlies extends from the northern Intermountain region to the Northeast. Within this fast belt of flow, a short-wave trough moving quickly southeastward across central Canada will brush the Great Lakes region. Accompanying this feature, a surface cold front will move quickly across the Upper Great Lakes through the first half of the period, and then across the Lower Lakes and Northeast overnight. The trailing portion of this front will become oriented roughly west-to-east with time across the central Plains and Midwest, through Saturday morning. ...Northern Lower Michigan... Isolated showers and a thunderstorm or two will be possible across the northern Lower Michigan vicinity near peak heating, along the fast-moving cold front, where steep mid-level lapse rates should contribute to modest CAPE. The deep-layer wind field -- increasing in intensity and slightly veering with height -- would support organized/severe storms in a more favorable thermodynamic environment. However, given weak CAPE, and a dry -- and likely to be slightly stable -- boundary layer, any gusty outflow winds should remain very local, and likely to remain below severe levels. Convection should weaken quickly through sunset. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Showers and a few thunderstorms will persist this evening -- and possibly overnight -- across parts of Oklahoma and adjacent North Texas, as a weak mid-level disturbance drifts southeastward across this region. Elsewhere, earlier convection with occasional lighting flashes over eastern Arizona/western New Mexico will continue to dissipate, with little to no additional lightning expected. ..Goss.. 10/11/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 10 22:29:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 10 22:29:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Mid-level ridging over the western and central US is forecast to slowly breakdown heading into the weekend as a series of West Coast troughs and increasingly strong flow aloft develop. Strong high pressure will shift eastward and weaken as troughing develops over the eastern third of the US. A cold front should move through the Rockies and northern Plains early this weekend ahead of a second, stronger, front moving out of southern Canada and across the central US early next week. Dry and breezy conditions, supporting a low-end risk for fire-weather conditions, are possible across the Plains, Midwest and Great Basin through this weekend and into next week. More widespread fire-weather concerns could develop midweek next week. ...Plains and Midwest... As the ridge aloft weakens, stronger mid-level flow will gradually move southward, first across the norther Plains and Upper Midwest, before developing over much of the central US. Dry and breezy conditions are possible behind and ahead of the aforementioned cold front through D3/D4 Sat/Sun, though the exact coverage and duration remains unclear. Still, the lack of recent rainfall and stronger winds suggests some fire-weather risk could evolve. Gusty southerly winds and very warm temperature are also possible over parts of the southern High Plains supporting some risk for locally elevated fire-weather potential given receptive fuels. Fire-weather concerns appear likely to increase early to midweek next week behind the second cold front as a strong area of high pressure develops over the eastern US. Breezy northerly winds are possible through early next week ahead of a strong area of low pressure expected to develop over the southern Plains. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are possible across the Plains and central US, given the overlap with very dry fuels and little recent rainfall. However, model guidance varies substantially on the timing and intensity of conditions. ...Great Basin... Breezy winds and low RH are possible over portions of the eastern Great Basin this weekend. Stronger flow aloft associated with western US troughing and the cold frontal passage could support another period of dry and windy conditions through early next week. Forecast certainty of widespread dry and breezy conditions is low, but Elevated highlights could be needed in future outlooks should confidence increase. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe-thunderstorm potential is currently expected to be low. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley... A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to deepen on Saturday across parts of the northern Plains, upper Midwest, and Great Lakes, as a series of low-amplitude shortwaves move through the trough during the day, and a stronger shortwave trough and related jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies by evening. A surface low is forecast to develop along a front in the northern MO/IL vicinity, and then move east-northeastward during the afternoon/evening. Modest low-level moistening and cooling midlevel temperatures will support the development of weak to locally moderate buoyancy by afternoon. In the absence of more robust moisture return, potential for storm development across the warm sector is uncertain. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front, within a low-level warm-advection regime. Deep-layer flow will be sufficient for some storm organization, but uncertainties regarding the potential for any surface-based development, as well as the magnitude of buoyancy available for elevated convection, preclude severe probabilities at this time. ...South FL and the Keys... Deeper tropical moisture is forecast to gradually spread northward across the Keys and south FL Peninsula on Saturday. This will likely be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm potential through the day and into the evening. Modest midlevel southwesterly flow may provide sufficient effective shear for some transient storm organization, though weak lapse rates will tend to limit potential for more robust updrafts. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... Only minor edits were made to the Convective Outlook thunder chances to line up with recent trends on radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no major changes needed. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024/ A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...19z Update... Confidence has increased, with the latest model guidance, that at least a few hours of 15-20 mph surface winds may develop over parts of the eastern Great Basin. While not overly strong, these winds should overlap with pockets of afternoon minimum RH of 15-20% and receptive fuels with recent fire activity. This suggests at least some risk for elevated fire-weather conditions. Otherwise, the prior outlook remains valid, see the discussion for additional information. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... Upper ridging will prevail east of the Rockies while a mid-level trough will impinge on the West Coast tomorrow (Friday). Though some surface troughing may develop across the Southern Plains, high pressure will dominate across most of the CONUS, encouraging dry conditions, but with light or variable winds, limiting widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns. The best chance for localized wildfire-spread conditions to develop would be the Great Basin by afternoon peak heating, where RH will be below 15 percent on a widespread basis. Still, doubts of a stronger surface wind field developing, combined with only modestly receptive fuels, suggest that fire weather highlights are not currently needed. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Great Lakes into New England... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum are forecast to move quickly east-southeastward across the Great Lakes vicinity through the day, and then reach New England by later Friday night. A cold front will move across parts of the Great Lakes, upper Midwest, and eventually parts of the Northeast in conjunction with this system. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of the front, limiting the thunderstorm potential across much of the warm sector. Very modest buoyancy may develop across the Great Lakes region during the afternoon, and into northern New England late Friday night, where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This will result in the potential for weak convection with sporadic lightning flashes. At this time, there is a somewhat stronger signal for thunderstorm potential across parts of WI/MI, where a general thunderstorm area has been maintained. A few flashes cannot be ruled out into New England Friday night, though this potential is more uncertain. Low/midlevel flow will be rather strong, so locally gusty winds will be possible if any relatively deep and sustained convection can develop across the region. ...Elsewhere... Elevated convection that may develop late in the D1/Thursday period across OK and north TX could persist into Friday morning, with some thunder potential. Convection may become deep enough to support some thunderstorm potential across the FL Keys, and possibly into southern portions of the FL Peninsula. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move into parts of central/northern CA and the Pacific Northwest, but thunderstorm potential across the region currently appears limited due to very weak instability. ..Dean.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. Dry and breezy conditions are expected to remain localized today and tonight across parts of the Dakotas and Great Basin. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/10/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Wed Oct 09 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the CONUS, with embedded mid-level impulses expected to traverse the ridge through the day today. One impulse will overspread the north-central CONUS, resulting in surface lee troughing and the associated southeastward progression of a cold front over the northern and central Plains. Behind the cold front, dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be expected, especially over the Dakotas during the afternoon. While Elevated equivalent conditions may be met for brief periods behind the cold front, such conditions appear too localized and brief in short-range guidance consensus to introduce fire weather highlights at this time. Elsewhere across most of the CONUS, quiescent fire weather conditions will prevail. Dry and occasionally breezy conditions may be observed over parts of the Great Basin, though these conditions, along with fuel receptiveness, appear too marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A relatively quiet convective weather day is forecast for the CONUS, with dry and stable conditions over most areas. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening over the mountains of southeast AZ and southwest NM. Other high-based showers and occasional thunderstorms may occur later today and tonight across parts of KS/OK/North TX. In both regions, weak instability and limited moisture will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... With Milton having moved east and off the FL Atlantic Coast, thunderstorms are not expected over FL through the rest of the period. Otherwise, isolated convection that may produce occasional lighting appears possible across parts of the southern Plains and southeast AZ/southern NM. The activity over the southern Plains will largely be tied to modest low-level warm advection and weak ascent associated with a shortwave trough moving southward from NE/KS. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/10/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least D6/Tuesday. At the same time, ridging will build across the western CONUS. This overall pattern will likely shift eastward by D7/Wednesday as another upper trough approaches the West Coast. As a result, an amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern will likely extend across the CONUS by early D7/Wednesday. Stable conditions are expected to prevail across the majority of the CONUS from D5/Monday through D8/Thursday. A few thunderstorms do appear possible from the middle to upper OH Valley into Upstate NY and central PA on D4/Sunday as a shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front move through the region. Strong large-scale ascent is anticipated ahead of the shortwave, with robust mid-level flow moving across the region as well. However, the better low-level moisture and associated buoyancy will be displaced south, likely keeping the overall severe threat low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... Upper troughing is expected to deepen across the central and eastern CONUS from D4/Sunday through at least D6/Tuesday. At the same time, ridging will build across the western CONUS. This overall pattern will likely shift eastward by D7/Wednesday as another upper trough approaches the West Coast. As a result, an amplified trough/ridge/trough pattern will likely extend across the CONUS by early D7/Wednesday. Stable conditions are expected to prevail across the majority of the CONUS from D5/Monday through D8/Thursday. A few thunderstorms do appear possible from the middle to upper OH Valley into Upstate NY and central PA on D4/Sunday as a shortwave trough and associated surface low/cold front move through the region. Strong large-scale ascent is anticipated ahead of the shortwave, with robust mid-level flow moving across the region as well. However, the better low-level moisture and associated buoyancy will be displaced south, likely keeping the overall severe threat low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across the Ohio Valley on Saturday, but the severe thunderstorm potential is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Enhanced westerly flow aloft is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairies eastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Northeast, through the base of upper troughing covering much of eastern Canada. A series of shortwave troughs are expected to progress through these westerlies, including one that moves quickly northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes into the northern Atlantic and another that is expected to move across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes early Sunday morning. This overall evolution will contribute to deepening cyclonic flow across much of the central and eastern CONUS, while also reinforcing the continental airmass over the region. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend across the OH Valley into the central Plains. This boundary is expected to sharpen throughout the day as the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough progresses southeastward. Surface cyclogenesis appears likely in the northern MO/IL vicinity, with the resultant low then moving northeastward along the frontal zone across the OH Valley. Warm-air advection throughout the warm sector of this low combined with cooling mid-level temperatures will result in modest buoyancy. Warm-air advection will also combine with large-scale ascent to provide the lift needed for showers and thunderstorms. Mid-level flow will be strong enough to support updraft rotation and the potential for a few instances of hail. However, coverage will be minimized by limited buoyancy. ..Mosier.. 10/10/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Thu Oct 10 2024 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A belt of enhanced westerlies is forecast to extend from the Canadian Prairie Province eastward across Ontario and southern Quebec into New England throughout the day on Friday. A shortwave trough embedded within these westerlies is forecast to progress quickly eastward across Ontario and Quebec and adjacent portions of the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. An associated surface low will move across Ontario just ahead of this shortwave, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the northern/central Plains, the Upper/Mid MS Valley, and the Upper Great Lakes. Scant low-level moisture is expected ahead of this low, limiting the thunderstorm potential along most of the front. Some modest buoyancy may develop across the Upper Great Lakes region where low to mid-level moisture is expected to increase amid cooling mid-level temperatures. This may result in deep enough updrafts for a few lightning flashes between 18Z and 00Z. Farther south, a low-amplitude shortwave trough is expected to drift southeastward from OK into the Lower MS Valley. Cold mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, and lingering warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms may result in a few lightning flashes across eastern OK and northeast TX Friday morning. Lastly, upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected to persist across central and southern FL throughout the period. Some showers are likely throughout the day amid confluent low-level northeasterly flow. However, warm temperatures aloft will limit storm depth throughout much of the period across the region. The environment across south FL is expected to become more conducive to deep convection late Friday night/early Saturday morning as mid-level temperature cool slightly and low-level flow trends more southeasterly. Consequently, a few flashes are possible across south FL and/or the Keys after 00Z. ..Mosier.. 10/10/2024 Read more