SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, bringing modest westerly flow across the Great Basin. East of the Rockies, the mid-level flow is largely west-northwesterly owing to a mid-level jet core moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie into the northern Great Plains. These flow features will provide synoptic support for three separate Elevated fire-weather highlights: One that extends from northwestern Arizona into southern and central Utah (as well as portions of far eastern Nevada), another extending from South Dakota into far northwest Kansas, and lastly, a small area extending from the Permian Basin into western North Texas. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... Daytime heating (and subsequent boundary-layer mixing) will result in 15 MPH winds (gusting to 20 MPH) and relative humidity values of 10-15%, overlapping with ERC fuels varying between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. Locally critical conditions will be possible where topography supports enhanced surface winds. ...South Dakota into Northwest Kansas... Dry boundary-layer relative humidity of 15-20% and wind speeds of 15-20 MPH are expected in a post-frontal airmass progressing southward across the Northern and Central Great Plains. These conditions will overlap with ERC values at or exceeding the annual 98th percentiles, supporting wildfire ignition and spread. The forecast has trended towards drier and windier in portions of Nebraska and northwest Kansas, but the current forecast calls for conditions to remain below the criteria for Critical highlights at this time. ...West Texas... Ahead of the southward-moving cold front, warm/dry southwesterly flow is expected across much of West Texas. Recent forecast guidance has increased confidence in 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values. However, the fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread is relatively modest, especially where recent rainfall has occurred in western North Texas. Still, a narrow corridor of overlap between these meteorological conditions and 80th-90th ERC annual percentile fuels exists, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 10/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop in a corridor across West Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America will remain amplified through this period, with further amplification of large-scale troughing forecast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Models indicate at least of couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging within this troughing, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast by late Sunday night. In lower latitudes, a residual mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will generally demarcate the northern periphery of higher moisture content air. However, a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...West Virginia into eastern Kentucky/southwest Virginia... There remains variability among the models concerning the evolution of surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast Sunday through Sunday night. However, there still appears a general consensus that a moistening, but well-mixed, boundary layer will become characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow pre-frontal corridor across Tennessee/Kentucky into West Virginia. It appears that peak destabilization will coincide with strengthening westerly deep-layer wind fields, including to 50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer. Forcing for ascent in advance of stronger mid-level height falls, which may not begin overspreading the region until after dark, remains more unclear. However, a developing pre-frontal low-level upslope flow component may aid thunderstorm initiation across parts of West Virginia, and perhaps into eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia by early Sunday evening. If this occurs, the environment probably will be conducive to a few stronger storms posing a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low today. ...Discussion... A highly amplified flow field will gradually evolve across the northeastern Pacific and across Canada today and tonight. Some of this amplification will manifest as far south as the Great Lakes, as an energetic short-wave trough digs southeastward across the Canadian Prairie through the period. As this trough digs, weak surface frontal-wave development is expected along the pre-existing baroclinic zone expected to extend westward across the Midwest states at the start of the period. The low is forecast to evolve across the northwestern Missouri area initially, and then shift gradually eastward with time, reaching the western Ohio vicinity late. As the low progresses eastward, a cold frontal surge southward across the central Plains is expected -- reaching the Ozarks/Oklahoma/the Texas South Plains area by Sunday morning. Along with showers and a few thunderstorms that may evolve over southern Florida, elevated evening/overnight storms are expected to develop over the southern Upper Great Lakes region. This convection is expected to shift eastward across the Lower Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley area with time. While small hail may occur with the stronger storms, CAPE appears likely to remain insufficient to support severe-caliber hailstones. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Discussion... A short-wave trough continues moving southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes, and will shift into Quebec -- and across the Lower Great Lakes into New England -- through the rest of the period. Showers are ongoing across parts of Quebec, Ontario, and eastern Lower Michigan, with a few thunderstorms embedded across the Ottawa Valley area. As this area of convection continues moving southeastward, sporadic lightning flashes may spread into the Lower Great Lakes region and western New England overnight. Elsewhere, convection remains nil across southern Florida and the Keys, and lightning has not been observed with convection off the California coast. As such, risk for lightning appears too limited to warrant continuation of these thunder areas from prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Discussion... A short-wave trough continues moving southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes, and will shift into Quebec -- and across the Lower Great Lakes into New England -- through the rest of the period. Showers are ongoing across parts of Quebec, Ontario, and eastern Lower Michigan, with a few thunderstorms embedded across the Ottawa Valley area. As this area of convection continues moving southeastward, sporadic lightning flashes may spread into the Lower Great Lakes region and western New England overnight. Elsewhere, convection remains nil across southern Florida and the Keys, and lightning has not been observed with convection off the California coast. As such, risk for lightning appears too limited to warrant continuation of these thunder areas from prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 10/12/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 11 21:19:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 11 21:19:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest D3/Sunday, with an associated cold front progressing southward down the Plains. Further west, a closed low will migrate slowly east southeastward over the Great Basin under an upper ridge through D5/Tuesday, as fairly deep troughing persists over the eastern CONUS. By mid week, the pattern will begin to shift as a north Pacific trough moves onshore and ridging replaces the trough over the east. Rain chances will accompany the former feature from the Pacific Northwest, perhaps as far south as northern CA, into the Intermountain West through the end of the week. ...Plains into the Midwest... Breezy post-frontal northerly winds are expected D3/Sunday from OK northward, while west southwesterly winds increase across portions of west TX and the Hill Country. Although localized elevated fire weather conditions appear possible for these regions, particularly across TX where pre-frontal warmer/drier conditions will be likely, weaker northerly flow aloft under a subtropical ridge axis should limit higher wind speed potential and the need for 40 percent probabilities. Higher RH in the cooler post-frontal air mass further north should keep most locations from dropping below critical thresholds, although fuels remain highly receptive across the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Dry southerly return flow by D6/Wed and D7/Thu across the plains could eventually result in an area of 40 percent Critical probabilities, although confidence in the location(s) of the highest wind speeds overlapping with the lowest RH is not quite high enough yet. ...Great Basin, Southwest, and Intermountain West... Localized elevated fire weather conditions will remain possible D3/Sunday across portions UT, NV, and AZ, as breezy southerly winds develop during the afternoon in conjunction with RH dropping into the teens. Then, as increasing mid to upper-level flow in the base of the trough begins to overspread the region D6/Wed, increasing surface wind speeds will become more widespread preceding rainfall chances. Subtle differences in the timing, magnitude, and position of this trough, however, again leaves confidence too low to warrant an inclusion of 40 percent probabilities at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WV...EASTERN KY...NORTHEAST TN...EXTREME WESTERN VA...SOUTHEAST OH...SOUTHWEST PA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky and northeast Tennessee through West Virginia and into southwest Pennsylvania by early Sunday evening, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts and possibly some hail. ...Eastern KY/TN into WV/PA... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will continue to amplify over the north-central into eastern CONUS on Sunday, as a strong shortwave trough moves southeastward from the upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast. A surface low is forecast to move eastward along a quasi-stationary front from parts of IN/OH into western PA through the day, though guidance begins to diverge by Sunday evening with the intensity and track of this low. A trailing cold front will move through parts of the OH/TN Valleys and eventually reach the western slopes of the Appalachians. Only modest low-level moistening is expected along/ahead of the front through Sunday afternoon, though relatively strong heating will support a narrow corridor of at least 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE from the OH/TN Valleys into parts of western WV and perhaps southwest PA. Warm-sector thunderstorm development may remain isolated at best through the day, but some increase in storm coverage will be possible into the evening as large-scale ascent gradually strengthens in response to the approaching shortwave trough. Increasing low/midlevel flow (generally 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer) will support a threat of strong/damaging gusts with the more robust storms. Steepening midlevel lapse rates could also result in some hail threat, especially if the more aggressive moisture/instability forecasts are realized. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...20z Updates... The only changes were to introduce two general thunderstorm risk areas to portions of northern NY/VT/NH into western ME as well as across the northwestern CA coast. Both areas will see relatively low thunderstorm chances, but consistent signals in high-res guidance over the past several runs suggests the potential is high enough to warrant thunder highlights. ..Moore.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...20Z Update... The previous forecast for Saturday remains valid. Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions are still expected to develop over portions of the southern Great Basin, where sustained surface wind speeds near 15 to 20 mph will develop by early afternoon. Brief, localized critical conditions due to slightly higher wind speeds will be possible in and around the Escalante Desert. Further north across the northern and central Great Plains within highly receptive fuels, post-frontal northerly sustained winds will begin to increase late in the morning with maximum speeds anticipated over northern NE and west-central SD by late afternoon. However, confidence in both critical wind speeds and relative humidity overlapping temporally within the cooler air mass remains too low to warrant a Critical area. A third area of interest Saturday may be across portions of west TX. Westerly downslope flow, warm temperatures, and a deeply mixed boundary layer will yield low teens to single-digit RH. However, brief maximum sustained wind speeds around 15 mph (weak flow aloft) preclude the need to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...20Z Update... The previous forecast for Saturday remains valid. Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions are still expected to develop over portions of the southern Great Basin, where sustained surface wind speeds near 15 to 20 mph will develop by early afternoon. Brief, localized critical conditions due to slightly higher wind speeds will be possible in and around the Escalante Desert. Further north across the northern and central Great Plains within highly receptive fuels, post-frontal northerly sustained winds will begin to increase late in the morning with maximum speeds anticipated over northern NE and west-central SD by late afternoon. However, confidence in both critical wind speeds and relative humidity overlapping temporally within the cooler air mass remains too low to warrant a Critical area. A third area of interest Saturday may be across portions of west TX. Westerly downslope flow, warm temperatures, and a deeply mixed boundary layer will yield low teens to single-digit RH. However, brief maximum sustained wind speeds around 15 mph (weak flow aloft) preclude the need to introduce an Elevated area at this time. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1244 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Pacific Northwest will result in modest mid-level westerly flow across the Great Basin, while east of the Rockies, the flow is predominantly northwesterly with a stronger jet core moving from Canada into the northern Great Plains. These mid-level features are responsible for two separate Elevated highlights on Saturday: one across much of western Utah into far eastern Nevada and northern Arizona, and the other stretching from far southern North Dakota/Western Montana into far northwestern Kansas. ...Great Basin... Daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing will result in relative humidity values of 10-15% and surface wind speeds of 15-20 MPH. While the threat for significant wildfire spread is low, these conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, and dry/windy conditions the preceding day that will contribute to additional curing of fuels. ...Northern and Central Great Plains... Post-frontal dry/breezy conditions are expected across the northern and central Great Plains, with the strongest winds (15-20 MPH) expected further north into South Dakota closer to the mid-level jet core. While the magnitude of surface winds further south remains somewhat uncertain, much of the central and northern Great Plains fuels have ERC values exceeding the annual 98th percentile. Given the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread, Elevated highlights were extended southward into Nebraska and northern Kansas where winds could reach 15 MPH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low on Saturday. ...Parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley... A large-scale mid/upper-level trough will begin to amplify across parts of the north-central into the eastern CONUS on Saturday, as a shortwave trough and attendant jet maximum move southeastward from the Canadian Prairies into the northern Plains and upper Midwest. A surface low is expected to develop during the day near the IA/MO/IL border region, along a quasi-stationary surface front. This low is forecast to move eastward along the front toward the upper Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening, as a trailing cold front begins to move southeastward. While modest low-level moistening and steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak to locally moderate destabilization along/south of the front, potential for warm-sector storm development still appears limited in the absence of more robust moisture return. However, low-level warm/moist advection will support potential for elevated convection to the north of the front, especially from late afternoon into the evening across northern IL/IN, northwest OH and far southern lower MI. Gradually deepening deep-layer flow/shear could support transient storm organization, though with only modest elevated buoyancy (MUCAPE generally 500-1000 J/kg) currently expected north of the front, potential for severe hail is too uncertain to include probabilities at this time. ..Dean.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111630Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. Dry and stable conditions will prevail over virtually all of the CONUS today. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over south FL and the Keys, and across portions of MI. In both regions, weak instability and limited vertical shear will preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/11/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111700Z - 121200Z ...17Z Update... No changes are needed for today's outlook. Sustained wind speeds are still expected to increase to around 15-20 mph from the south and southwest this afternoon across portions of eastern NV and southwestern UT. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough approaching the western U.S. coast will result in modest west-southwesterly flow over the Great Basin throughout Friday into Saturday. While the overall threat for significant wildfire spread is low, daytime heating (and resulting boundary-layer mixing) will drop relative humidity values to 10-15%, and winds will reach 15-20 MPH. These conditions overlap with modestly receptive fuels, with ERC values varying between the 80th and 90th annual percentiles, warranting Elevated highlights across eastern Nevada and western Utah. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 111300Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated showers and thunderstorms producing occasional lighting may persist for a few more hours across eastern/southern OK and vicinity before diminishing as modest warm advection with a south-southwesterly low-level jet weakens later this morning. A cold front will advance southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. While low-level moisture and related instability are expected to remain quite limited ahead of the front, cool mid-level temperatures and strong ascent with the upper trough may support isolated thunderstorms across parts of northern MI this afternoon and evening. Some of this activity could produce occasional gusty winds given strengthening low/mid-level flow through the day, but the overall severe threat still appears low. The front and upper trough will continue across the Northeast tonight. But, instability is forecast to remain minimal, which should hinder thunderstorm potential. Convection should also develop this afternoon across parts of south FL and the Keys. Even with poor mid-level lapse rates and warm temperatures aloft, some of this activity could produce isolated lightning flashes. A shortwave trough will move across the northern CA/western OR vicinity this evening and overnight. Thunderstorms may occur offshore, but potential for lightning over land appears limited. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/11/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 141200Z - 191200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that there will be substantive further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing to the east of the Mississippi Valley early next week. Peak amplitude may occur near/east of the Atlantic Seaboard early Wednesday, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and southern Atlantic coasts. Although another vigorous digging short wave impulse may reinforce the larger-scale mid-level troughing near the northern Atlantic Seaboard into late week, a southerly return flow may develop across the southern Great Plains toward the Upper Midwest, ahead of significant mid-level troughing emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific. It is possible that this could be accompanied by at least some increase in thunderstorm development ahead of an associated cold front Thursday through Friday. However, it is not yet clear that low-level moistening will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support more than low probabilities for severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF OHIO AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact a corridor from eastern Kentucky through West Virginia by early Sunday evening, with some posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes will remain amplified, with at least some further amplification of large-scale troughing across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley through this period. Models indicate at least a couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging through this regime, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. Seasonably high moisture content will generally remain confined to a plume along and southeast of a remnant mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula. However, models indicate that a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...Eastern Kentucky into West Virginia... Models vary considerably concerning the evolution of the surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into Northeast. However, there appears a general consensus that a moistening but well mixed pre-frontal boundary layer will become characterized by modest CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow corridor. It appears that this will occur in the presence of strengthening deep-layer westerly mean wind fields, including 30-50 kt in the 850-500 mb layer. Stronger mid-level height falls may not begin overspreading this corridor until late Sunday afternoon or later, but the environment may remain conducive to strong thunderstorms posing a risk for small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts well into Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 10/11/2024 Read more