WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

WW 28 TORNADO NC VA CW 051725Z - 060100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 28 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southeast Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A convective line continues to move eastward into more of central/eastern NC and southeast VA. Increasing low-level moisture coupled with strong vertical shear will support the potential for strong wind gusts and line-embedded tornadoes through the afternoon and into this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Norfolk VA to 20 miles south southwest of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26...WW 27... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Mosier Read more

MD 0153 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 28... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0153 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 28... Valid 052130Z - 052300Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 28 continues. SUMMARY...The damaging wind threat will continue through early evening. DISCUSSION...A squall line has started to lose its definition somewhat across eastern North Carolina as leading stratiform precipitation has started to stabilize an already weakly unstable boundary layer. While the line is not as intense as it was earlier this afternoon, a threat for damaging wind gusts remains possible to the Atlantic coast given the strength of the low-level wind field across the region (75 knots at 1km on MHX VWP). Several strong supercells with strong low-level circulation were observed from the KLTX WSR-88D off the North Carolina coast over the past 1 to 2 hours. However, as these storms approached the coast, they weakened, suggesting a more hostile low-level instability present across land areas. By 2330Z the threat will likely have ended across tornado watch 28 as the squall line should be in the western Atlantic by that time. ..Bentley.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX... LAT...LON 34477664 34497698 34587714 34747713 34937712 35907708 36607700 37287687 37377610 37177585 36607575 35807545 35557534 35267551 35167559 35027591 34697630 34477664 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW ORF TO 40 S NHK TO 30 NNW SBY. ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC039-045-047-052240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-073-115-131-052240- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK GLOUCESTER MATHEWS NORTHAMPTON ANZ543-630-631-636-650-652-654-052240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE TANGIER SOUND AND THE INLAND WATERS SURROUNDING BLOODSWORTH ISLAND Read more

WW 27 SEVERE TSTM MD VA CW 051525Z - 052300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 27 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Maryland Eastern/Southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and evening from 1025 AM until 600 PM EST. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A convective line is expected to continue eastward/northeastward into more of eastern/southeastern VA and southern MD over the next several hours. Strong wind fields across the region will support the potential for damaging gusts within this line. A low probability for a brief tornado or two also exists. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 75 miles west southwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 26... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27035. ...Mosier Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z A progressive and highly amplified flow regime will persist over the US through the extended forecast period. Several high-amplitude troughs are forecast to move over the southern Rockies/Plains fostering significant lee cyclogenesis. This will favor multiple periods of widespread dry/windy conditions over areas of receptive fuels. Fire-weather conditions are very likely over the next 7 days. ...Southern High Plains and Southwest... The first of the significant upper troughs will move out of the Southwest and over the southern High Plains D2/Thursday through D4/Saturday. Strong mid-level flow will overspread a very dry air mass across parts of eastern NM and TX. Widespread elevated to critical conditions are likely each day with gusts to 30-40 mph and RH below 20%. Some modifications may be necessary in the coming days as fuels could be impacted by light precipitation. Additionally, model difference remain with regard to the areal extent and surface pattern of potentially critical conditions this weekend. Still, the combination of wind and RH, plus low fuel moisture remains largely receptive to fire-weather concerns. Through the end of the extended period, medium-range solutions suggest another strong trough impacting the Southwest and Southern High Plains after a period of shortwave ridging D5/Sunday and D6/Monday. Although there remain uncertainties regarding the depth and exact timing of this wave, confidence is high enough to conclude breezy and dry conditions will likely be present from southern NM, to West TX, and the TX Panhandle. Low Critical probabilities have been included to account for this persistent pattern. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no substantial changes required beyond clearing probabilities behind a broken squall line currently traversing the Carolinas and Virginia. Damaging gusts continue to be observed with portions of the line, and transient embedded circulations have been noted within the line per KAKQ velocity imagery. Within the past 30 minutes, GOES IR imagery shows cooling cloud top temperatures across southern NC, indicative of a gradual strengthening trend that is likely the result of peak daytime heating within the narrow warm sector ahead of the line. Recent forecast guidance has captured this trend well and suggests that the intensifying convection across southern NC will spread northeast into northeastern NC/southeast VA through early evening. Given these trends, the Enhanced risk has been maintained, though convection will likely begin moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast between 23-01z. See MCD #152 for additional short-term details regarding the severe threat across the Mid-Atlantic, and MCD #153 for forecast concerns regarding the upper OH River Valley. ..Moore.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0140 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ..20z... No major changes were made to the critical are over the southern High Plains. Surface winds of 25-35 mph with RH of 10-20% are likely over dry fuels with a strong lee low over the central Plains. Widespread critical conditions appear likely from eastern NM into portions of western TX. Some uncertainty remains on the eastern extent of elevated/critical conditions given recent rainfall. A few hours of localized gusts greater than 40 mph and RH near or below 10% could also support brief extremely critical conditions. Additional fire-weather concerns are possible over the Southeast Thursday. Considerable uncertainty remains over fuels given recent precipitation, and thus no areas will be added yet. However, gusty winds and several hours of low humidity may support elevated fire-weather potential in drier fuel beds, particularly over Florida. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will impinge on the southern Rockies, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development along the central High Plains tomorrow (Thursday). By afternoon, a dryline is poised to surge across far southwestern Kansas into western Texas, with critically dry and breezy conditions behind the dryline fostering dangerous wildfire-spread potential. Throughout the post-dryline environment, sustained southwesterly surface winds over 25 mph will coincide with 15 percent RH for several hours on a widespread basis. As such, Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced for much of central New Mexico into western Texas. Latest guidance consensus does depict high-end Critical conditions in eastern New Mexico, with localized pockets of 30-35 mph sustained winds overlapping with 5-10 percent RH. If later guidance consensus depicts a longer lasting, more widespread overlap of such conditions, Extremely Critical highlights may be needed in future outlooks. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are also possible across portions of southern South Carolina, eastern Georgia, and much of the Florida peninsula Thursday afternoon with the passage of the cold front. Northwesterly surface winds may sustain over 15 mph amid 25-40 percent RH for at least a few hours. However, vegetation in the northern Florida Peninsula and points north should receive appreciable rainfall before Thursday. Furthermore, fuels appear marginally receptive to wildfire spread across the rest of the Florida Peninsula. As such, overall wildfire-spread potential appears too low for the introduction of Elevated highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0150 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 27... FOR FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...SOUTHERN MARYLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 0150 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...far western Virginia...southern Maryland Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27... Valid 051802Z - 051930Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 27 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues within WW27. DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms continues eastward across portions of far western Virginia into southern Maryland within WW27. Reports of winds up to 60 mph and damage to trees/power lines has been reported over the last hour from the northern portion of the line near Richmond. Ahead of this line, daytime heating has yielded temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Though thermal profiles remain meager, deep layer shear around 60-70 kts and strong mid-level flow will continue to support continued organization and risk for damaging winds as this line moves eastward. Occasional line embedded mesovorticies may support risk for a tornado. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX... LAT...LON 38497714 38527664 38507594 38347534 38077516 37717519 37347545 37307578 37257615 37197674 36857761 36897795 37087798 37297771 37647738 37997736 38497714 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms will remain low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the lower Colorado Valley into the southern Rockies on Friday. Ahead of this feature, a strong belt of mid-level flow will persist across the southern Plains into the Southeast. Low-amplitude upper ridging will precede the southwestern trough. At the surface, a low will track from Kansas into the Ohio Valley before weakening. A cold front will push into the southern Plains in its wake. As the trough approaches the southern Plains, a surface low will develop along the cold front in Central/South Texas. Some moisture return is expected to occur from the Upper Texas Coast into the central Gulf Coast. However, the persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain a capping layer of warmer air and should preclude thunderstorm development in the absence of greater forcing for ascent. Within the core of the upper trough, some weak convection appears possible in south-central/southeast Arizona given the cold temperatures aloft. However, the cool/dry boundary layer conditions suggest coverage should remain well below 10%. ..Wendt.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for thunderstorms will remain low on Friday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move from the lower Colorado Valley into the southern Rockies on Friday. Ahead of this feature, a strong belt of mid-level flow will persist across the southern Plains into the Southeast. Low-amplitude upper ridging will precede the southwestern trough. At the surface, a low will track from Kansas into the Ohio Valley before weakening. A cold front will push into the southern Plains in its wake. As the trough approaches the southern Plains, a surface low will develop along the cold front in Central/South Texas. Some moisture return is expected to occur from the Upper Texas Coast into the central Gulf Coast. However, the persistent southwesterly flow aloft will maintain a capping layer of warmer air and should preclude thunderstorm development in the absence of greater forcing for ascent. Within the core of the upper trough, some weak convection appears possible in south-central/southeast Arizona given the cold temperatures aloft. However, the cool/dry boundary layer conditions suggest coverage should remain well below 10%. ..Wendt.. 03/05/2025 Read more

WW 0027 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW AVC TO 15 NW RIC TO 35 NNE RIC TO 20 SE DCA TO 10 S BWI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105 ..THORNTON..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 27 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC003-005-009-019-025-033-037-039-045-047-051940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT DORCHESTER HARFORD PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER VAC001-025-036-041-053-073-087-097-101-103-115-119-127-131-133- 149-159-193-570-670-730-760-051940- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ACCOMACK BRUNSWICK CHARLES CITY CHESTERFIELD DINWIDDIE GLOUCESTER HENRICO KING AND QUEEN KING WILLIAM LANCASTER MATHEWS MIDDLESEX NEW KENT NORTHAMPTON NORTHUMBERLAND PRINCE GEORGE RICHMOND WESTMORELAND Read more

WW 0028 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0028 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0026 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW CHS TO 30 NNW CHS TO FLO TO 20 S SOP TO 15 NNW RDU TO 30 NW AVC. ..BENTLEY..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...GSP...RNK...MHX...CHS...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 26 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC017-019-047-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-093-101-107- 127-129-141-155-163-165-181-183-185-191-195-051840- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLADEN BRUNSWICK COLUMBUS CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HOKE JOHNSTON LENOIR NASH NEW HANOVER PENDER ROBESON SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON SCC015-019-033-041-043-051-067-089-051840- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKELEY CHARLESTON DILLON FLORENCE GEORGETOWN HORRY MARION WILLIAMSBURG Read more

WW 26 TORNADO NC SC CW 051245Z - 051800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 26 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 745 AM EST Wed Mar 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Central and Eastern South Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning and afternoon from 745 AM until 100 PM EST. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...A broken squall line will continue east across the Watch area through the midday into the early afternoon. Very strong wind fields and a destabilizing airmass will support the potential for embedded circulations in the squall line to pose a risk for damaging gusts (55-70 mph) and a threat for tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles north of Raleigh NC to 10 miles south of Charleston SC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 300. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Smith Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible from parts of central California into the southern and eastern Great Basin on Thursday. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper trough will move off the eastern U.S. coast. Broadly cyclonic flow across the West will feature two embedded shortwave troughs. One will pivot through the Southwest with the other digging southwestward along the central/southern California coast. A broad surface low in the Intermountain West will evolve eastward and deepen within the central Plains by Friday morning. Cold temperatures aloft will support isolated convection across portions of central California. A surface boundary within the Great Basin will also serve as another focus for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms, particularly where surface heating occurs. Very limited buoyancy will generally preclude any severe weather potential with any of this activity. ..Wendt.. 03/05/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes, widespread wetting rainfall will temporarily limit available fuels, curtailing fire-weather potential. The only exception will be transient dry/windy conditions over eastern NM. However, this is not expected to be widespread. See the prior outlook for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/05/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will build over the Great Plains as a mid-level trough ejects into the Atlantic, with another mid-level trough amplifying along the West Coast today. As a strong surface cyclone ejects into Ontario from the Great Lakes region, strong and somewhat dry northwesterly surface flow will overspread portions of the southern Plains. However, marginally supportive RH atop fuels that have recently received appreciable rainfall suggests that Elevated highlights are not currently warranted. Dry southerly flow will also prevail across portions of eastern New Mexico, but overlapping Elevated conditions should be localized at best. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1028 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE EASTERN CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered damaging-wind gusts and a few tornadoes are possible today across parts of the eastern Carolinas into southeast Virginia. Other strong to severe storms may occur from the Allegheny Plateau into the Mid Atlantic. ...VA and the Carolinas... A strongly forced convective line continues to push eastward across the central Carolinas and south-central VA. Thus far, updraft depth has been limited by modest buoyancy, as evidenced by the lack of lightning within the line. However, the downstream airmass is expected to undergo modification as low 60s dewpoints advect northward just ahead of the line. This increased moisture should lead to greater buoyancy, and the potential for deeper, more persistent updrafts within the line. As storms deepen, the very strong low to deep-layer shear (i.e. 0-1 km bulk shear over 50 kt and 0-6 km bulk shear over 70 kt) in place over the region will support storm organization mainly in the form of bowing structures/mesovortices. An attendant threat for tornadoes will probably develop with the more persistent/long-lived embedded circulations in addition to wind damage focused near inflections and bowing segments of the convective line. Additional details for this region can be found in recently issued MCD #0149. ...Upper OH Valley/PA vicinity... Recent surface analysis places a deep, occluded low (i.e. 980 mb) over southern Lake Michigan. An occluded front extends east-southeastward from this low to a triple point in the western WV Panhandle/northern VA vicinity. A cold front also extends south-southeastward from this low across western IN before arcing more southerly across the TN Valley. Visible satellite indicates that a mid-level dry-slot has contributed to some clearing over OH, in the vicinity of the occluded front. This should allow for some modest daytime heating, with the resultant steepening of the low-level lapse rates. This will occur beneath cold mid-level temperatures, contributing to fairly steep lapse rates profile throughout much of the troposphere. Some low to mid-level moistening is also possible as large-scale forcing for ascent attendant to the approaching upper low persists, resulting in modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) across the region ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorm development appears possible as the front interacts with this airmass, and vertically veering wind profiles with effective shear values near 40 kt will support the potential isolated low-topped transient supercells and perhaps bowing linear segments. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/05/2025 Read more

MD 0149 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 26... FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Areas affected...Central North Carolina and eastern South Carolina. Concerning...Tornado Watch 26... Valid 051535Z - 051700Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 26 continues. SUMMARY...Wind damage/tornado threat to increase by mid-day. DISCUSSION...A convective line has produced consistent wind damage this morning with a 52 knot gust at 1512Z at KBUY. This wind threat will continue and likely increase as the environment downstream destabilizes. In addition, low-level moisture advection and some heating through broken cloud cover should lead to 500 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon across parts of eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina. Given 450+ m2/s2 0-1km SRH and 75 knots at 1.5 km from the KRAX VWP, the embedded QLCS tornado threat and severe wind threat will likely increase as the line interacts with greater instability. In addition, a few embedded supercells may be possible where instability is greatest which could lead to regions of locally higher threat within the line. Expect an increase in organization and intensity of the squall line (first indicated by the presence of lightning) within the next 1 to 2 hours with the threat persisting through the afternoon/evening. An additional tornado watch will eventually be needed downstream of watch 26 across parts of eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia. ..Bentley/Mosier.. 03/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE... LAT...LON 33078068 34927984 35837964 36377935 36617897 36977719 37247608 36677584 36227563 35927551 35607539 35177551 35047579 34777622 34567644 34547672 34587708 34237764 33787802 33637867 33087909 32837937 32537987 33078068 Read more