SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is expected over the eastern CONUS early next week. Farther west a mid level closed low, under a ridge extending northeastward into the Canadian Prairies, will begin to migrate east southeastward near the Four Corners. A cooler air mass at the surface behind a cold front will encompass much of the Great Plains and Midwest, with relatively light winds present. As the week progresses, the pattern will shift and become more amplified. An upper-level Pacific trough will move onshore D5/Wed, as ridging shifts over the central CONUS. Another surge of cooler air and northeasterly surface winds will accompany this amplification over the Midwest and Plains early D5/Wed. Later in the day, however, surface pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies should quickly commence with the approach of the Pacific mid to upper trough. As a result, strengthening south winds within a dry antecedent air mass should increase throughout D5/Wed across much of the Plains and Midwest. Confidence in the aforementioned pattern materializing by mid week has increased enough to include a large area of 40 percent probabilities within the Plains. There's still a bit of uncertainty regarding minimum relative humidity, but wind speeds certainly appear high enough for at least widespread elevated conditions over highly receptive fuels. By D6/Thursday, confidence in relative humidity remaining low enough across the Plains to support elevated to near critical fire weather is not as high. However, breezy south winds will continue to impact the central and southern Plains. If low level moisture return is delayed or confined, another 40 percent area could be included in subsequent forecasts across the central Plains. ..Barnes.. 10/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 12 21:22:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2145 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI
Mesoscale Discussion 2145 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Areas affected...Southern Lake Michigan into southern lower MI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 122052Z - 122215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail cannot be ruled out into early evening as storms move eastward. DISCUSSION...Elevated convection has recently intensified over southern Lake Michigan, after earlier producing small hail over southeast WI. Persistent low-level warm/moist advection will allow a plume of MUCAPE to expand east-northeastward through the remainder of the afternoon, with MUCAPE generally increasing into the 500-1000 J/kg range. While this magnitude of MUCAPE is not overly supportive of large hail, sufficient effective shear will continue to support storm organization, with small to briefly severe hail and locally gusty winds possible as storms continue to move eastward into early evening. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 42938699 42928589 42868511 42768475 42398464 42058484 41898512 41878580 41938623 42008666 42168706 42268714 42938699 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Weak convection across the Great Lakes region has produced small (less than one inch) hail within the past couple of hours, but the thermodynamic environment remains rather marginal and is not expected to substantially improve. Latest CAM guidance continues to show weak convective signals across the region, suggesting the potential for organized severe convection remains low. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 10/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1106 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/ ...Great Lakes Region... Another relatively quiet convective day is anticipated across the CONUS, with most areas dry and stable. One exception will be along and north of a surface boundary extending across northern IN. A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over MI/WI will track along this boundary, aiding in the development of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms - mainly over southern Lower MI. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds aloft, but very limited moisture and CAPE. The strongest cells may produce small hail and gusty winds, but current indications are that severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Other thunderstorms may affect portions of south FL and the Keys this afternoon, but no severe storms are expected. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms still appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough, with embedded perturbations, will persist across the eastern CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low continues to meander over the Four Corners region. Widespread surface high pressure behind a cold front will overspread the MS Valley toward the Gulf Coast and Atlantic Seaboard, resulting in enough static stability to limit thunderstorm development over most locales. The cold front should be drifting southward across the FL Peninsula, with thunderstorms possible across southern portions of the state by afternoon. A couple of lightning flashes are also possible over portions of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie (and immediate surrounding landmass), as cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper trough overspread relatively warm waters. Finally, cooler mid-level temperatures and associated lapse rates accompanying the cut-off low may support a couple of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of the Four Corners given the assistance of orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains accurate and no changes are needed. Please see the discussion below for details. ..Barnes.. 10/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin on Sunday, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy pre-frontal flow in Texas and post-frontal flow in Oklahoma may result in Elevated fire-weather conditions as well. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are expected as daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing occurs during the afternoon, with some areas seeing locally critical conditions where topography supports enhanced surface winds. These conditions will overspread fuels modestly to very receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC values between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. ...Central Texas... Portions of central Texas may see Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday, where warm/dry southwesterly flow ahead of a southward-moving cold front will support at least 15 MPH winds with boundary-layer relative humidity values between 10% and 20%. However, these conditions don't currently overlap with especially receptive fuels, and there is still uncertainty in the surface wind speeds reaching sustained Elevated criteria. ...Oklahoma... Much of Oklahoma could also experience some Elevated fire-weather conditions in a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass. However, ensemble guidance indicates spread/uncertainty in both boundary-layer relative humidity and wind speeds supporting wildfire spread, and recent wetting rainfall has lessened fuel receptiveness in portions of Central Oklahoma. Still, much of the fuels surrounding the areas recently rained on have ERC values exceeding the 95th annual percentile. If future forecast guidance comes into better agreement about the meteorological conditions, Elevated highlights may be warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 12 17:39:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening. Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the southern FL Peninsula. ...Central Appalachians... As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1204 PM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in a corridor across West Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, late tomorrow (Sunday) afternoon and evening. Small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts are the main concerns. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as a 500 mb cut-off low meanders over the Interior West and a second upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Sunday). A surface low will translate across the eastern OH Valley and Mid Atlantic states during the day, promoting deep-layer ascent amid just enough moisture return to support thunderstorm development (a couple of which may be strong). Meanwhile, steep lapse rates associated with the 500 mb low over the Four Corners, in conjunction with adequate surface heating and orographic lift, may support isolated thunderstorm development. Daytime heating of a moist airmass may also encourage the development of a few thunderstorms over the southern FL Peninsula. ...Central Appalachians... As the surface low progresses toward the Mid Atlantic, a cold front will sag southeastward across the eastern OH Valley into the central Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing lift for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Surface dewpoints are expected to only reach the mid 50s F. However, 7+ C/km low and mid-level lapse rates may support over 1000 J/kg SBCAPE, that combined with rapidly strengthening vertical wind profiles and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear, may support organized multicells immediately ahead of the cold front. A couple of damaging gusts or instances of small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out with the stronger storms. ..Squitieri.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...17Z Update... The current forecast remains valid. A very narrow corridor of Elevated fire weather conditions was considered for the Guadalupe and northern Davis Mountains of TX. However, slowly decreasing wind speeds throughout the afternoon should limit the overall fire spread potential. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/12/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, bringing modest westerly flow across the Great Basin. East of the Rockies, the mid-level flow is largely west-northwesterly owing to a mid-level jet core moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie into the northern Great Plains. These flow features will provide synoptic support for three separate Elevated fire-weather highlights: One that extends from northwestern Arizona into southern and central Utah (as well as portions of far eastern Nevada), another extending from South Dakota into far northwest Kansas, and lastly, a small area extending from the Permian Basin into western North Texas. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... Daytime heating (and subsequent boundary-layer mixing) will result in 15 MPH winds (gusting to 20 MPH) and relative humidity values of 10-15%, overlapping with ERC fuels varying between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. Locally critical conditions will be possible where topography supports enhanced surface winds. ...South Dakota into Northwest Kansas... Dry boundary-layer relative humidity of 15-20% and wind speeds of 15-20 MPH are expected in a post-frontal airmass progressing southward across the Northern and Central Great Plains. These conditions will overlap with ERC values at or exceeding the annual 98th percentiles, supporting wildfire ignition and spread. The forecast has trended towards drier and windier in portions of Nebraska and northwest Kansas, but the current forecast calls for conditions to remain below the criteria for Critical highlights at this time. ...West Texas... Ahead of the southward-moving cold front, warm/dry southwesterly flow is expected across much of West Texas. Recent forecast guidance has increased confidence in 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values. However, the fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread is relatively modest, especially where recent rainfall has occurred in western North Texas. Still, a narrow corridor of overlap between these meteorological conditions and 80th-90th ERC annual percentile fuels exists, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1106 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Great Lakes Region... Another relatively quiet convective day is anticipated across the CONUS, with most areas dry and stable. One exception will be along and north of a surface boundary extending across northern IN. A fast-moving shortwave trough currently over MI/WI will track along this boundary, aiding in the development of late afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms - mainly over southern Lower MI. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong winds aloft, but very limited moisture and CAPE. The strongest cells may produce small hail and gusty winds, but current indications are that severe thunderstorms are unlikely. Other thunderstorms may affect portions of south FL and the Keys this afternoon, but no severe storms are expected. ..Hart/Weinman.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0734 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Within broad upper troughing over central/eastern Canada, an embedded mid-level perturbation will gradually amplify as it moves southeastward over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through the period. At the surface, a weak low will gradually develop eastward across the Midwest and eventually reach the northwest OH vicinity by late tonight. An associated cold front will continue moving southward across the central Plains and upper/mid MS Valley, while a warm front extending eastward from the surface low remains across northern IL/IN/OH through this evening. Limited low-level moisture and weak large-scale forcing across the warm sector suggest that surface-based thunderstorm potential should remain low today across the Great Lakes/OH Valley region. However, most guidance does show some elevated convection developing by late afternoon/early evening across southern Lower MI and vicinity. 00/06Z NAM runs show much more instability present compared to most other guidance, with a general consensus that around 500 J/kg of MUCAPE may exist when convection initiates. Even with strong shear in the cloud-bearing layer, the weak instability forecast should tend to limit the threat for severe hail with any thunderstorms that can form over Lower MI and subsequently spread east-southeastward across northern IN/OH this evening and overnight. Still, small hail may occur with the more robust cores. Occasional gusty winds may also be able to reach the surface given the forecast strength of the low/mid-level flow, presence of a somewhat dry sub-cloud layer/weak DCAPE, and relatively shallow near-surface stable layer. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/12/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... It still appears that an evolving large-scale eastern U.S. upper trough will reach peak amplitude near the Atlantic Seaboard around the middle of next week, when cool surface ridging may encompass much of the interior U.S. into areas offshore of the Gulf and south Atlantic coasts. Thereafter, even as the mid-level troughing progresses into the Atlantic and loses amplitude, medium-range guidance indicates that surface ridging will be maintained across the northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, on the southwestern flank of a retreating surface high. There appears greater spread within the model output concerning possible subsequent significant surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies through the interior higher latitudes of Canada, in response to forcing associated with a short wave trough emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific during the middle to latter portion of next week. Even though this may initially include the development of fairly deep surface troughing from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies into the Great Plains, it appears that low-level Gulf moisture return will be limited. While there may be some increase in thunderstorm activity across parts of the Great Plains by next Thursday and Friday, the lack of widespread appreciable destabilization will probably tend to minimize the risk for severe thunderstorms. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will remain modestly amplified, but still generally progressive through this period and beyond. Within this regime, it appears that large-scale troughing will continue to evolve across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to be accompanied by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes, and across the St. Lawrence Valley. As a trailing perturbation digs across the Upper Midwest toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is likely to build southward through the interior U.S. Monday through Monday night. It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance southeastward through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the mid-level cold core (becoming centered over the Great Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of tropical moisture, appears likely to gradually shift across and southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys. Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging is likely to continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and southwest of the Four Corners region. ..Kerr.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the mid-latitude westerlies will remain modestly amplified, but still generally progressive through this period and beyond. Within this regime, it appears that large-scale troughing will continue to evolve across the Mississippi Valley through the Atlantic Seaboard. One significant embedded short wave perturbation is forecast to be accompanied by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near the north Atlantic Seaboard into the Canadian Maritimes, and across the St. Lawrence Valley. As a trailing perturbation digs across the Upper Midwest toward the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys, cool surface ridging is likely to build southward through the interior U.S. Monday through Monday night. It appears that the leading edge of the cold intrusion will advance southeastward through the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states, well south of the mid-level cold core (becoming centered over the Great Lakes) and upper support for large-scale ascent, with little appreciable risk for thunderstorms. As flow trends cyclonic across the Gulf of Mexico into subtropical Atlantic, an embedded residual mid-level shear axis, demarcating the northern periphery of a remnant plume of tropical moisture, appears likely to gradually shift across and southeast of the southern Florida Peninsula and Keys. Across the West, large-scale mid-level ridging is likely to continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through the Rockies. However, a weakening low initially over the Great Basin may generally be maintained while slowly digging southeastward, to the west and southwest of the Four Corners region. ..Kerr.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will transition to a closed low over the northern Great Basin on Sunday, providing some enhancement to the mid-level flow and stronger southerly winds over portions of northwestern Arizona into southern Utah. Dry/breezy pre-frontal flow in Texas and post-frontal flow in Oklahoma may result in Elevated fire-weather conditions as well. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values are expected as daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing occurs during the afternoon, with some areas seeing locally critical conditions where topography supports enhanced surface winds. These conditions will overspread fuels modestly to very receptive to wildfire ignition and spread, with ERC values between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. ...Central Texas... Portions of central Texas may see Elevated fire-weather conditions on Sunday, where warm/dry southwesterly flow ahead of a southward-moving cold front will support at least 15 MPH winds with boundary-layer relative humidity values between 10% and 20%. However, these conditions don't currently overlap with especially receptive fuels, and there is still uncertainty in the surface wind speeds reaching sustained Elevated criteria. ...Oklahoma... Much of Oklahoma could also experience some Elevated fire-weather conditions in a dry and breezy post-frontal airmass. However, ensemble guidance indicates spread/uncertainty in both boundary-layer relative humidity and wind speeds supporting wildfire spread, and recent wetting rainfall has lessened fuel receptiveness in portions of Central Oklahoma. Still, much of the fuels surrounding the areas recently rained on have ERC values exceeding the 95th annual percentile. If future forecast guidance comes into better agreement about the meteorological conditions, Elevated highlights may be warranted. ..Halbert.. 10/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest, bringing modest westerly flow across the Great Basin. East of the Rockies, the mid-level flow is largely west-northwesterly owing to a mid-level jet core moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairie into the northern Great Plains. These flow features will provide synoptic support for three separate Elevated fire-weather highlights: One that extends from northwestern Arizona into southern and central Utah (as well as portions of far eastern Nevada), another extending from South Dakota into far northwest Kansas, and lastly, a small area extending from the Permian Basin into western North Texas. ...Northwest Arizona into Utah... Daytime heating (and subsequent boundary-layer mixing) will result in 15 MPH winds (gusting to 20 MPH) and relative humidity values of 10-15%, overlapping with ERC fuels varying between the 80th and 95th annual percentiles. Locally critical conditions will be possible where topography supports enhanced surface winds. ...South Dakota into Northwest Kansas... Dry boundary-layer relative humidity of 15-20% and wind speeds of 15-20 MPH are expected in a post-frontal airmass progressing southward across the Northern and Central Great Plains. These conditions will overlap with ERC values at or exceeding the annual 98th percentiles, supporting wildfire ignition and spread. The forecast has trended towards drier and windier in portions of Nebraska and northwest Kansas, but the current forecast calls for conditions to remain below the criteria for Critical highlights at this time. ...West Texas... Ahead of the southward-moving cold front, warm/dry southwesterly flow is expected across much of West Texas. Recent forecast guidance has increased confidence in 15-20 MPH winds and 10-15% relative humidity values. However, the fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread is relatively modest, especially where recent rainfall has occurred in western North Texas. Still, a narrow corridor of overlap between these meteorological conditions and 80th-90th ERC annual percentile fuels exists, warranting the introduction of Elevated highlights. ..Halbert.. 10/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA...PARTS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may develop in a corridor across West Virginia, and perhaps into portions of eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia, late Sunday afternoon and evening. Some may be accompanied by small to marginally severe hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... Mid/upper flow across the northern mid-latitudes of the Pacific into North America will remain amplified through this period, with further amplification of large-scale troughing forecast across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. Models indicate at least of couple of vigorous short wave perturbations digging within this troughing, one of which may contribute to modest surface cyclogenesis along a frontal zone across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast by late Sunday night. In lower latitudes, a residual mid-level shear axis across the central Gulf of Mexico and Florida Peninsula will generally demarcate the northern periphery of higher moisture content air. However, a continued gradual moistening of the boundary layer ahead of the interior U.S. front may contribute to a corridor of modest destabilization across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys into the western slopes of the Appalachians by late Sunday afternoon. ...West Virginia into eastern Kentucky/southwest Virginia... There remains variability among the models concerning the evolution of surface cyclogenesis across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast Sunday through Sunday night. However, there still appears a general consensus that a moistening, but well-mixed, boundary layer will become characterized by CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg by late Sunday afternoon, within at least a narrow pre-frontal corridor across Tennessee/Kentucky into West Virginia. It appears that peak destabilization will coincide with strengthening westerly deep-layer wind fields, including to 50+ kt in the 700-500 mb layer. Forcing for ascent in advance of stronger mid-level height falls, which may not begin overspreading the region until after dark, remains more unclear. However, a developing pre-frontal low-level upslope flow component may aid thunderstorm initiation across parts of West Virginia, and perhaps into eastern Kentucky and southwestern Virginia by early Sunday evening. If this occurs, the environment probably will be conducive to a few stronger storms posing a risk for hail and potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sat Oct 12 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The severe-thunderstorm threat appears low today. ...Discussion... A highly amplified flow field will gradually evolve across the northeastern Pacific and across Canada today and tonight. Some of this amplification will manifest as far south as the Great Lakes, as an energetic short-wave trough digs southeastward across the Canadian Prairie through the period. As this trough digs, weak surface frontal-wave development is expected along the pre-existing baroclinic zone expected to extend westward across the Midwest states at the start of the period. The low is forecast to evolve across the northwestern Missouri area initially, and then shift gradually eastward with time, reaching the western Ohio vicinity late. As the low progresses eastward, a cold frontal surge southward across the central Plains is expected -- reaching the Ozarks/Oklahoma/the Texas South Plains area by Sunday morning. Along with showers and a few thunderstorms that may evolve over southern Florida, elevated evening/overnight storms are expected to develop over the southern Upper Great Lakes region. This convection is expected to shift eastward across the Lower Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley area with time. While small hail may occur with the stronger storms, CAPE appears likely to remain insufficient to support severe-caliber hailstones. ..Goss/Halbert.. 10/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain low today. ...Discussion... A short-wave trough continues moving southeastward across Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes, and will shift into Quebec -- and across the Lower Great Lakes into New England -- through the rest of the period. Showers are ongoing across parts of Quebec, Ontario, and eastern Lower Michigan, with a few thunderstorms embedded across the Ottawa Valley area. As this area of convection continues moving southeastward, sporadic lightning flashes may spread into the Lower Great Lakes region and western New England overnight. Elsewhere, convection remains nil across southern Florida and the Keys, and lightning has not been observed with convection off the California coast. As such, risk for lightning appears too limited to warrant continuation of these thunder areas from prior outlooks. ..Goss.. 10/12/2024 Read more