SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms appear possible across parts of east central Arizona into adjacent portions of western New Mexico on Friday, and across parts of central Texas late Friday night, but the risk for severe weather appears negligible. ...Discussion... Models indicate that the center of a broad and deep, occluded cyclone will be in the process of weakening across central Quebec, with secondary surface cyclogenesis underway near the Canadian Maritimes by early Friday. The new cyclone center is then generally forecast to migrate northward toward Newfoundland and Labrador through 12Z Saturday. In its wake, it appears that cyclonic mid-level flow characterized by seasonably low heights will linger across the Great Lakes vicinity through Northeast. Upstream, as a significant short wave trough and embedded mid-level low turn eastward toward the southern Rockies, within an amplified belt of westerlies emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, broad downstream ridging is forecast to be maintained across the subtropical into southern mid-latitudes, with mid-level flow becoming increasing confluent across and east of the central Great Plains. A lead short wave perturbation emerging from the Intermountain West is likely to become increasingly sheared as it accelerates into and through the confluent regime, accompanied by a weakening surface low transitioning to a frontal wave across the central Great Plains through middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Models indicate that the trailing cold front may advance through the Cumberland Plateau, Mid South and south central Great Plains by late Friday night, with a new wave possibly developing along it across parts of central Texas toward the end of the period. Ahead of the front, a deepening moist boundary-layer may develop across the north central Gulf toward adjacent coastal areas. However, models indicate that this will remain capped by warm, dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere. ...Arizona into New Mexico... A generally cold boundary layer with limited moisture still seems likely to minimize the potential for thunderstorm development beneath the mid-level cold pool overspreading the Great Basin into Four Corners states Friday through Friday night. However, the latest RAP Refresh and High Resolution Ensemble output suggests that thermodynamic profiles might become marginally conducive to convection capable of producing lightning by late Friday night, near/north of the east central Arizona Mogollon Rim vicinity into parts of the Colorado Plateau. ...Central into northeast Texas... Low-level moistening and forcing for ascent along the frontal zone downstream of the developing wave will contribute to weak elevated destabilization by late Friday night. Erosion of mid-level inhibition may become sufficient to support the initiation of scattered thunderstorms, either shortly before or not long after 12Z Saturday. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible today from parts of southern and central California into the Intermountain West and central Rockies. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a trough will move into the Northeast today, as a ridge moves through the Great Plains. Out west, a low will move across the Intermountain West. Mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent associated with the western U.S. system will make conditions favorable for isolated to scattered thunderstorms. However, instability will remain very weak across the western U.S. and no severe threat is expected to develop today. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0656 PM CST Wed Mar 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe storms with isolated severe wind gusts will be possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a cold front is located in the southern and central Appalachians. Ahead of the front, an axis of low-level moisture is analyzed from far eastern North Carolina northward into eastern Virginia, where surface dewpoints are generally in the 50s F. Thunderstorms are ongoing along the western edge of this moist corridor ahead of the front near a surface trough. This area is also close to a mid-level jet with wind speeds around 100 knots. Near this jet streak, deep-layer shear is strong and large-scale ascent is focused. This environment along with some instability will be sufficient for a marginal severe threat for a few more hours this evening. Isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary threat. ..Broyles.. 03/06/2025 Read more