No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 16 21:12:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA... The only change with this update was to introduce an Elevated area over portions of the Sacramento Valley in California. Here, a tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower). Given that fuels will likely be receptive by tomorrow afternoon (despite the light rainfall today), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes on Thursday with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z update... The previous outlook remains valid with minimal changes to the ongoing Thunder Areas for the latest guidance. Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of the Rockies and Northwest ahead of the upper trough moving onshore tonight. Additional storms are possible into early evening ahead of a cold front over parts of the far southern Gulf Coast and Florida. No severe storms are expected, see the prior discussion for more information. ..Lyons.. 10/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/ ...Great Basin... A weak upper trough and pockets of residual mid-level moisture will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Great Basin today. Model guidance suggests a weak mid-level speed max moving across the Four Corners region into western CO. Steep low and mid level lapse rates could aid in locally gusty winds in the strongest cells. No organized severe storms are expected. Other thunderstorms will occur beneath an upper trough affecting the Pacific Northwest states. Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible in a warm/moist air mass present across south TX and south FL. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. Isolated small to marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts are possible. ...Arizona... An upper low will develop over AZ as an upper trough develops east toward the Four Corners region on Friday. This will bring a belt of moderate southerly deep-layer flow over the Southwest. At the surface, a moist axis will spread across southern AZ on southwesterly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing front. This may support a narrow corridor of organized thunderstorm potential from near the Phoenix vicinity southward during the morning and early afternoon hours as sufficient instability overlaps strong deep-layer flow. If current trends persist, a marginal risk for strong gusts and hail may be needed in subsequent outlooks, though the overall corridor both spatially and temporarily appears fairly small. ...Southern High Plains... Southeasterly low-level flow will gradually transport modest Gulf moisture southwestward across west TX into eastern NM through the period. Mid/upper level south/southwesterly flow will also gradually increase through the day as the western upper trough approaches the Four Corners vicinity. However, as the upper low develops over AZ, the core of stronger flow aloft will remain west of the region. Nevertheless, low-level convergence along a weak surface trough/dryline is expected during the late afternoon into evening. Vertically veering wind profiles will result in effective shear magnitudes around 25-30 kt, supporting marginal supercells. Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest, and MLCAPE will generally be less than 750 J/kg, but any better organized cell could produce locally strong gusts or marginally severe hail during the evening. ..Leitman.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated/Critical highlights in the northern Plains were expanded northward, and the Elevated area in the central Gulf Coast was expanded eastward into the western FL Panhandle -- both based on the latest surface observations and latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Wednesday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent values from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota, where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels, seems appropriately placed based on the latest guidance. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well-mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above-normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. Some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across this region, within the post-frontal airmass. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Elevated/Critical highlights in the northern Plains were expanded northward, and the Elevated area in the central Gulf Coast was expanded eastward into the western FL Panhandle -- both based on the latest surface observations and latest high-resolution guidance. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Wednesday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent values from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota, where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels, seems appropriately placed based on the latest guidance. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well-mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above-normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. Some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across this region, within the post-frontal airmass. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen as it shifts east across the northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop much of the CONUS east of the MS River as an upper low moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, strong high pressure beneath the upper ridge will be centered over the Ohio Valley. A prior cold frontal passage and north/northeasterly low-level flow will result in Gulf moisture remaining well offshore. A strong baroclinic zone will be oriented from the Upper Midwest toward the southern High Plains with surface low development expected across the Great Basin with the approach of the upper trough. Boundary-layer moisture will remain scant, but cooling aloft as the upper trough progresses eastward will support enough elevated instability such that isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest coast into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will deepen as it shifts east across the northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday. Meanwhile, an amplified upper ridge will envelop much of the CONUS east of the MS River as an upper low moves offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast. At the surface, strong high pressure beneath the upper ridge will be centered over the Ohio Valley. A prior cold frontal passage and north/northeasterly low-level flow will result in Gulf moisture remaining well offshore. A strong baroclinic zone will be oriented from the Upper Midwest toward the southern High Plains with surface low development expected across the Great Basin with the approach of the upper trough. Boundary-layer moisture will remain scant, but cooling aloft as the upper trough progresses eastward will support enough elevated instability such that isolated thunderstorms will be possible from the Pacific Northwest coast into the Great Basin and central/southern Rockies vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Great Basin... A weak upper trough and pockets of residual mid-level moisture will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Great Basin today. Model guidance suggests a weak mid-level speed max moving across the Four Corners region into western CO. Steep low and mid level lapse rates could aid in locally gusty winds in the strongest cells. No organized severe storms are expected. Other thunderstorms will occur beneath an upper trough affecting the Pacific Northwest states. Finally, a few thunderstorms are possible in a warm/moist air mass present across south TX and south FL. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161300Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified, yet still quite progressive pattern will persist through the period over the CONUS. A leading synoptic trough was initially positioned from a low near Anticosti Island in the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestward across New England, the near-coastal Mid-Atlantic region, and the southern Appalachians, to parts of AR and eastern OK. The southern Appalachian part of the trough is expected to consolidate into a closed cyclone as it moves eastward across the Carolinas and VA, with a well-defined 500-mb low expected over the Outer Banks vicinity by 12Z tomorrow. However, associated surface frontal-wave cyclogenesis and related elevated thunder potential in the wrapping conveyor both should remain offshore. The trailing cold front -- analyzed at 11Z from central FL across the north-central Gulf to near CRP and across south-central TX -- will support isolated thunderstorm potential today over parts of south FL and deep south TX before moving south of both areas. Meanwhile, a synoptic-scale trough -- with several embedded small shortwaves/vorticity lobes -- is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the AK Panhandle south-southeastward, just offshore of and parallel to the CONUS Pacific Coast. As these features move ashore today, preceded by several other vorticity lobes, height falls and colder air aloft will spread inland, steepening midlevel lapse rates atop marginal low/middle-level moisture over parts of the Pacific Northwest and a broad area of the Intermountain West/ Great Basin, with low-level warm advection and diabatic heating also aiding instability in the interior swath. Isolated thunderstorms should result. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/16/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 191200Z - 241200Z ...DISCUSSION... Latest medium-range guidance is not much different that prior runs for this period. A fairly significant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may remain centered near the Four Corners, cut off from the westerlies, before beginning to slowly accelerate eastward on Sunday. As the southern/southwestern flank of cool surface ridging is generally maintained across the northern Gulf of Mexico into northwestern Gulf coast vicinity, and impedes low-level moistening across the southern Great Plains, the potential for severe thunderstorm development appears likely to remain rather limited. As the remnant perturbation progresses more rapidly east of the southern Rockies through the interior U.S., around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics, models continue to indicate little in the way of appreciable surface cyclogenesis and moistening southerly return flow. As a result, the potential for severe thunderstorm development is expected to remain generally low through the early to middle portion of next week. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. Some of these may produce small to marginally severe hail and a few potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... While broad mid/upper ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, a vigorous short wave impulse digging into the Southwest is forecast to support lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/west of the Wasatch into areas southwest of the Four Corners by Friday night. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly progressing offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models that indicate cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stable influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. To the west of this surface ridging modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southwest into Great Plains... On modest initially southerly low-level flow, moisture return from the Gulf of California may precede strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, near/north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity by late Friday morning. This may support thunderstorm development which could produce some hail and gusty winds. However, based on current forecast soundings, it appears that this probably will remain below severe limits. Otherwise, moisture return along weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. However, late Friday evening into Friday night, NAM forecast soundings indicate better low-level moisture return in the presence of strengthening shear and forcing for ascent, near/east of the Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa vicinity. This may support CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, and perhaps a few strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO...ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico and adjacent portions of the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity. Some of these may produce small to marginally severe hail and a few potentially damaging wind gusts. ...Synopsis... While broad mid/upper ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, a vigorous short wave impulse digging into the Southwest is forecast to support lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/west of the Wasatch into areas southwest of the Four Corners by Friday night. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly progressing offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models that indicate cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stable influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. To the west of this surface ridging modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southwest into Great Plains... On modest initially southerly low-level flow, moisture return from the Gulf of California may precede strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, near/north of the Greater Phoenix area into the Mogollon Rim vicinity by late Friday morning. This may support thunderstorm development which could produce some hail and gusty winds. However, based on current forecast soundings, it appears that this probably will remain below severe limits. Otherwise, moisture return along weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. However, late Friday evening into Friday night, NAM forecast soundings indicate better low-level moisture return in the presence of strengthening shear and forcing for ascent, near/east of the Sacramento and Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton Mesa vicinity. This may support CAPE up to around 500 J/kg, and perhaps a few strong storms capable of producing marginally severe hail and localized potentially damaging wind gusts. ..Kerr.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes on Thursday with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...FAR WESTERN IOWA...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.... ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes on Thursday with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Wednesday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent values from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota, where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels, seems appropriately placed based on the latest guidance. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well-mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above-normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. Some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across this region, within the post-frontal airmass. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Wednesday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent values from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota, where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels, seems appropriately placed based on the latest guidance. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well-mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above-normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. Some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible across this region, within the post-frontal airmass. ..Bentley.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that mid/upper flow will become increasingly split across western North America during this period, as initially consolidated large-scale troughing progresses inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation digs inland of the northern Pacific coast, through areas near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. To the east of the Rockies, the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis likely will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, the Black Hills vicinity, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence as far south as the northern Gulf of Mexico and Gulf coast vicinity. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft, and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return, will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, spreading across the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night, probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity. ..Kerr.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1213 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified trough will be present across the East Coast. A mid/upper-level low is then forecast to develop/deepen across eastern North Carolina/Virginia through the period. In the West, a broad upper trough will continue into the Northwest/northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will continue to move southward into Deep South Texas and south Florida. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in south Florida. Given the moist airmass in place, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg is possible south of the front. Deep-layer shear will only be modest on the southern flank of the trough to the north. Weak frontal convergence, limited mid-level forcing, and weak mid-level lapse rates will tend to limit both storm coverage and intensity. A stronger storm or two could occur, however. Greater buoyancy (MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg) is expected south of the front in Deep South Texas. A few thunderstorms are possible. Minimal deep layer shear should keep severe potential very low. Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible from portions of the Northwest as well as from the northern Rockies into the Great Basin and Four Corners as the large-scale trough progresses east. Limited buoyancy should hinder any severe potential here as well. ..Wendt/Bentley.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will continue south and east this evening into Wednesday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are still possible near the lower Great Lakes vicinity, but as subsidence increases aloft, coverage should remain well below 10%. Additional isolated thunderstorms will remain possible with a cutoff low in the Four Corners region. Finally, isolated thunderstorms will continue for another few hours in south Florida near a remnant front with some potential for development near the Space Coast later this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/16/2024 Read more