WW 57 TORNADO IA IL IN 191715Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Western Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast through the early evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 60 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0246 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57... FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...eastern Illinois into far western Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 57... Valid 192037Z - 192230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely to continue to increase during the next few hours, including the potential for supercells with tornadoes across much of east central Illinois into the Indiana state border vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Aided by stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of the intense mid-level jet nosing through the middle Mississippi Valley, an intensifying and evolving broken line of thunderstorms appears likely to spread across and east of the Interstate 55 corridor of central Illinois through 21-22Z. This is where 20Z surface observations indicate that rapid (2-hourly in excess of 4 mb) surface pressure falls are maximized, and lower 50s surface dew points are being maintained with perhaps some further increase ongoing farther east, into the vicinity of the Indiana state border vicinity. More discrete thunderstorms are now initiating farther south, between Taylorville and Salem, which are likely to continue rapidly moving north-northeastward within 50-60 kt south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings continue to suggest that this will coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near/east of Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur vicinities, where south to southwesterly flow is forecast to intensify within the 850-700 mb layer through 22-00Z. And it still appears the low-level thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to supercell tornadoes, perhaps including a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41618831 41418744 38798741 38288815 38388861 40008935 41618831 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Early in the extended period D3-5 (Friday-Sunday), breezy and dry conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. However, a much cooler air mass along with recent rain and snowfall across portions of the central Plains will help keep fire weather concerns low and mostly across the southern high Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern Plains. ...D3 - Friday through D4 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A surface low will develop across the central Plains on D3 - Friday, with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The main upper-level trough has continued to show a more progressive track, with much cooler air filtering in across portions of eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas behind the passing cold front. Some portion of this region has also seen recent rain and snowfall over the last 24-48 hours. This has led to removal of the 70 percent probabilities and shrinking of 40 percent probabilities. A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D4 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. 850 mb flow will strengthen with lee troughing, however, the main area of strongest flow aloft will stay north of the driest fuels. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Early in the extended period D3-5 (Friday-Sunday), breezy and dry conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. However, a much cooler air mass along with recent rain and snowfall across portions of the central Plains will help keep fire weather concerns low and mostly across the southern high Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern Plains. ...D3 - Friday through D4 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A surface low will develop across the central Plains on D3 - Friday, with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The main upper-level trough has continued to show a more progressive track, with much cooler air filtering in across portions of eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas behind the passing cold front. Some portion of this region has also seen recent rain and snowfall over the last 24-48 hours. This has led to removal of the 70 percent probabilities and shrinking of 40 percent probabilities. A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D4 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. 850 mb flow will strengthen with lee troughing, however, the main area of strongest flow aloft will stay north of the driest fuels. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SPI TO 15 NNW PIA TO 35 SSW RFD AND 30 WNW PIA TO 30 WNW PIA. ..BUNTING..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-053- 063-075-079-091-093-099-101-105-107-113-115-121-123-125-129-135- 139-143-147-155-159-167-173-179-183-197-203-192140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MARION MARSHALL MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL WOODFORD INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-192140- Read more

WW 57 TORNADO IA IL IN 191715Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Western Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast through the early evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 60 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0058 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 58 TORNADO IL IN KY 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the watch area from late afternoon into this evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... A few updates were needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. The Critical area across western New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle was expanded eastward to include more of the Texas Panhandle and into portions of central New Mexico. This was in alignment with recent model guidance which brings stronger winds across these region than previously forecast. Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated further across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles south into southwestern Texas in line with these trends as well. A Critical area was added across the eastern Florida Peninsula with this outlook. Across this region, relative humidity reductions to 25-30 percent will overlap sustained westerly flow around 10-15 mph. A broad Elevated region was included from the central peninsula eastward to the coast. The best overlap of Critical conditions looks to be across the eastern peninsula from the Orlando Metro south to the Gold Coast and Miami Metro. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced, coupled mid-level/surface trough will traverse the Midwest into the OH Valley as a mid-level impulse tracks from the Pacific Northwest to the northern Rockies on Friday. Some of the latest guidance depicts a plume of cooler temperatures aloft accompanying the Midwest/OH Valley mid-level trough, which may support a few lightning flashes over these regions Friday into Friday night. Likewise, cooler temperatures aloft will overspread portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies as this mid-level trough passes overhead, perhaps resulting in enough buoyancy to support a few lightning flashes. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

MD 0243 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL ILLINOIS
Mesoscale Discussion 0243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...central Illinois Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191621Z - 191845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A gradual intensification of thunderstorm activity is likely across parts of southeastern Iowa into west central into central Illinois through 1-3 PM CDT. This may include increasing potential for a couple of tornadoes, severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. Trends are being monitored for the possibility of a watch, which appears more probable across parts of central/eastern Illinois later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Scattered, modest convective development has been occurring to the east-northeast of a deep, occluding cyclone now centered north of Kansas City. This has been focused along a dryline, which may continue to become better defined into early afternoon, as the Rapid Refresh suggests that the trailing cold front may not quite overtake it. The leading edge of the primary cooling at mid-levels is contributing to steepening lapse rates along the dryline and, with a gradual moistening (surface dew points increasing through the lower 50s) of the boundary-layer ahead of it, appreciable further destabilization is expected. It appears that this may include mixed-layer CAPE increasing to 500-1000 j/kg in a corridor from near the triple point across the southeastern Iowa vicinity into central Illinois. As this occurs, initially scattered, low-topped thunderstorm development is likely to undergo a gradual intensification, beneath an intense south-southwesterly mid/upper jet. Low-level hodographs remain rather modest to weak, and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings suggest that this may not change much until later this afternoon across parts of east central Illinois (roughly near/east of the Bloomington and Decatur vicinities). However, it is possible that ambient vertical vorticity and steepening low-level lapse rates along the dryline, near the triple point, may support potential for at least a couple of generally brief/weak tornadoes, in addition to severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN... LAT...LON 41469066 41088906 38938848 38998954 39438987 39639122 40889185 41469066 Read more

MD 0244 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR CENTRAL WI...SOUTHERN MI UPPER PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Central WI...southern MI Upper Peninsula Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 191717Z - 192015Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow, with rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, will continue and expand northeast across the discussion area this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Upper-level low pressure over northeast KS will continue moving steadily east as an accompanying surface low moves from northern MO into northern IL by late afternoon. As surface temperatures cool, snow will expand in coverage in response to increasing large-scale ascent and spread northeast through late afternoon. Intensifying frontogenetic forcing within the 850-700 mb layer will contribute to snowfall rates of one inch per hour becoming widespread, and weak elevated buoyancy/embedded convective elements will result in areas of locally higher rates of up to 2 inches per hour. As the surface low moves east-northeast, strong/gusty north to northeast winds of 30 to 45 mph with higher gusts will result in areas of whiteout conditions. ..Bunting.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 44879176 45958887 45948825 45868769 45548739 45218731 44858762 44588854 44408918 44069019 43859097 43959155 44229180 44429185 44679185 44879176 Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0057 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the Rockies as a second upper trough ejects into the Atlantic tomorrow (Thursday). A surface cold front will accompany the East Coast trough, immediately preceded by marginal low-level moisture (e.g. low 50s F surface dewpoints). Scant buoyancy, driven by the meager low-level moisture, may encourage the development of a few thunderstorms from the Mid Atlantic to Carolina Piedmont region. Given relatively strong flow just above the boundary layer, strong wind gusts may occur with a few of the storms, but confidence in any appreciable severe gust coverage is too low for the addition of severe probabilities at this time. Otherwise, the only other location where lightning flashes may be observed is over the northern Rockies, where a plume of cold temperatures aloft, associated with the western trough, may promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) to support a few thunderstorms. ..Squitieri.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... Updates were made to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook to account for recent trends in observations and forecast guidance. A Critical area was introduced for portions of Arkansas into southern Missouri. In this region, strong post frontal westerly flow will overlap with relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent by the afternoon. Recent fuel guidance indicates that fuels are approaching all time record for dryness for mid-March, with ERCs above the 80-90th percentile. Recent thunderstorm activity did bring some rainfall across the region, however, the more appreciable rainfall was very localized. The Elevated area across central Oklahoma into north-central Texas was removed as cooler air infiltrating behind the frontal passage has led to increasing relative humidity around 40 percent. Strong northwesterly flow continues, but the improvement in relative humidity, much cooler temperatures, increase in cloud cover, and higher relative humidity should help temper fire weather concerns. Additional periods of Elevated to Critical fire weather concern are likely by the afternoon across the southern Plains. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 19 14:35:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Iowa...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191433Z - 191630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago metropolitan areas may continue to pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail before weakening by midday into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Observational data indicate some recent intensification of thunderstorm activity in an arcing northeastward advancing band spreading into/across parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Based on forecast soundings, this convection is rooted within elevated moisture return and destabilization based near the 700 mb level, beneath an initial surge of cooling further aloft. Most unstable CAPE may be as high as 750+ J/kg along this corridor, with shear within the elevated convective layer strong, which may continue to support sub-severe to marginally severe hail in stronger cells another few hours. Into midday day, as activity spreads towards/into the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago vicinities, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this convection will probably tend to weaken as storm inflow trends less unstable. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42819067 43178997 42848824 41578784 40938846 41208911 41958954 42819067 Read more