SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Southwest into the Southern High Plains... An upper low will develop within the base of a western trough on Friday. This system will progress across the Southwest toward the Four Corners/southern Rockies vicinity by Saturday morning. As this occurs, moderate mid/upper south/southwesterly flow (40-60 kt at 500 mb) will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. At the surface, modest boundary layer moisture will spread across southern AZ on southerly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front. Steepening midlevel lapse rates within the developing mid/upper low may provide weak elevated instability and isolated thunderstorms are possible. Further east, southeasterly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northwest across western Texas into eastern New Mexico along a surface trough/dryline. As the upper low/trough approaches during the afternoon into the evening, steepening midlevel lapse rates and surface dewpoints in the mid 50s F will support up to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Vertically veering wind profiles with around 40 kt effective shear magnitudes suggest isolated supercells will be possible with initial convection during the evening. More linear development may occur with time (toward 06z) as stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Strong gusts, marginal hail and a tornado or two will be possible with this activity. ..Leitman.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... The previous forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations. In particular, the Critical area was expanded slightly southward and eastward over northern KS, far northwest MO, and western IA. Morning surface observations already show RH falling into the middle/upper 20s over these areas, which combined with the strong sustained winds and dry fuels, will favor critical conditions through the afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 10/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Western States... A large upper trough will dig southeastward across the mountainous west today and tonight. This will provide increasing large-scale ascent and increasing mid-level moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the Rockies and Great Basin. Visible satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds over much of this area, which should limit daytime heating and destabilization. Strengthening winds aloft could pose a risk for gusty winds in the strongest cells this afternoon, but the risk of severe storms appears low. ..Hart/Grams.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a highly amplified yet progressive pattern will persist through the period, as a strong, synoptic-scale ridge shifts eastward over the Great Lakes, and the Mississippi/Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Upstream, a strong trough now near the coastal Pacific Northwest will dig southeastward across interior parts of the West Coast States today into this evening, and much of the western Great Basin/Intermountain regions overnight. By 12Z, a 500-mb low should form over eastern NV, along a trough extending from the northern Rockies to the lower Colorado River Valley. As that occurs, a weaker, shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery near the NV/UT and CA/AZ borders, should eject northeastward over the central Rockies and central/northern High Plains, while weakening. By the end of the period, broadly cyclonic flow will cover most of the western CONUS. Ahead of the strengthening main (Pacific Northwest) trough, height falls and areas of DCVA/cooling aloft are forecast. Those will overlie a southeastward-surging low-level cold front across the Intermountain region, and support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm potential over a vast swath of the West, either side of the front. Meager but sufficient low/midlevel moisture -- mostly with distant/indirect origins in the subtropical gulfs either side of northern Mexico -- will support this convection. Strong gusts may accompany some of the afternoon and early evening activity along/ahead of the cold front across northern parts of NV/UT, amidst strengthening deep shear. However, overall moisture/buoyancy appear too meager to outline an unconditional severe area at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/17/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... An initially evolving mid-level low is still forecast to emerge from the Four Corners vicinity late this weekend, before accelerating east of the southern Rockies and across the remainder of the interior U.S., generally around the northern/northeastern periphery of ridging centered over the subtropics. As this occurs, models indicate similar pattern developments upstream, but over the southern mid-latitude Pacific, with another notable mid-level low evolving to the northwest of 30N/140W early next week, before accelerating toward the U.S. Pacific coast by the end of the period. While there appears at least some risk for a couple of strong storms across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity into the lower central Great Plains Sunday into Monday, the lack of a substantive return flow of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is still expected to minimize the overall convective potential. Models indicate that weak surface ridging may linger across the Gulf Coast vicinity through much of the period, impeding the development of a moistening southerly inland return flow and maintaining generally low risk for severe thunderstorm activity. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and perhaps portions of adjacent western Texas Saturday into Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Synopsis... Inland of the North American Pacific coast, strong zonal flow will prevail across much of Canada through this period. More amplified, but generally much weaker, flow will prevail across the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes. The latter regime is likely to include a notable lingering mid-level low near the Four Corners. Only a very slow eastward/northeast movement of this low is forecast Saturday through Saturday night, mostly in response to perturbations pivoting around its periphery. Downstream of the low, models indicate that ridging will build across the southeastern Great Plains and lower through middle Mississippi Valley. In lower levels, cool surface ridging is forecast to remain prominent from the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley vicinity into the northern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern Gulf Coast. Although surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies is likely to continue to weaken, south/southeasterly low-level flow will persist across the high plains into the higher terrain and contribute to further moistening of Gulf origins, beneath broadly cyclonic and diffluent mid/upper flow. ...Eastern New Mexico and adjacent western Texas... With the mid-level cold core remaining generally confined to the Colorado Plateau, lapse rates across and east of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains, through much of eastern New Mexico, may remain relatively weak on Saturday. This, coupled with further weakening of the lee surface troughing, does not appear particularly conducive to severe storm development. However, with some additional boundary-layer moistening beneath at least modestly cool mid-levels, CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg (and perhaps approach 1000 J/kg) by late Saturday afternoon, in the presence of continuing favorable shear profiles for supercells. One short wave perturbation pivoting around the southeastern periphery of the mid-level low may enhance convective development near or shortly after peak destabilization. However, there remains sizable spread within the model output concerning this feature. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...Synopsis... As a surface low settles into the Southwest, strong southerly flow will continue across the Central and Southern Plains. This low-level flow will advect moisture northward which will eliminate most of the fire weather concern across the Plains. Very strong mid-level flow will overspread the Southwest as a compact upper-level cyclone slides east-southeast. Sustained winds of 30+ mph are likely beneath the strongest mid-level flow. Fuels across Arizona and New Mexico are not critically dry and therefore, no fire weather concerns have been highlighted at this time. However, dry fuels are present across California where some Elevated fire weather conditions are likely within the Central Valley, Coastal Ranges of the central and northern portions of the state, and in terrain favored areas of southern California. In addition to the strong winds Friday afternoon, the Santa Ana winds will likely strengthen again 06-12Z Saturday. This will occur as the LAX-TPH gradient strengthens to near 10-12 mb as diurnal cooling, and high pressure in the Great Basin strengthens the pressure gradient across southern California. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHERN KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND FAR WESTERN IOWA... ...Synopsis... ...Central Plains... A mid-level ridge will amplify from the lower Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes today with a closed mid-level low near the Carolina coast and a large trough across the western CONUS. This pattern will result in some lee troughing in the central Plains. The tighter pressure gradient will lead to strong winds in the Plains. A large area of elevated fire weather conditions is expected in the central/northern Plains and vicinity. A concentrated area of greater fire weather concerns will exist from northern Kansas to eastern Nebraska and into southeast South Dakota, far southwest Minnesota and western Iowa. There is significant uncertainty regarding the depth of the mixing and the lowest relative humidities in this area. However, a Critical delineation seems warranted, given the very dry fuels in the area and sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph with minimum relative humidities likely in the 20s. ...Northern Central Valley in California... A tightening pressure gradient and strong deep-layer northerly flow is forecast on the backside of an amplifying large-scale trough. This will promote around 20 mph sustained northerly surface winds amid 20 percent RH (locally lower) across the northern Central Valley in California. Given that fuels will likely be receptive by this afternoon (despite the light rainfall yesterday), elevated to locally critical conditions are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/17/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms are possible Friday night across parts of eastern New Mexico near the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains. Some may pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail, locally damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. ...Synopsis... Models continue to indicate that a vigorous short wave impulse splitting off the stronger mid-latitude westerlies will continue digging across the southern Great Basin into the Southwest during this period. This appears likely to be accompanied by notable lower/mid-tropospheric cyclogenesis near/southwest of the Wasatch into the Colorado Plateau to the southwest of the Four Corners by late Friday night, as low-amplitude ridging within the stronger westerlies begins to shift inland of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. To the east, mid-level ridging, initially building across the upper Ohio Valley/lower Great Lakes region, likely will be maintained, with downstream confluent mid-level troughing and an embedded low only slowly continuing to progress offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. Beneath this regime, models indicate that cold surface ridging centered near the Appalachians will maintain a stabilizing influence as far south and west as the northwestern Gulf Coast region. Around the western periphery of this surface ridging, modest moisture return of Gulf origins will gradually return northward from northeastern Mexico into surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... It still appears that moisture return to the vicinity of weakening surface troughing, from the Front Range northeastward into the central Great Plains, may not support more than very weak boundary-layer destabilization with limited convective potential late Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, from the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle area southward through the Texas/New Mexico border vicinity, warm layers aloft and weak boundary-destabilization may also tend to minimize the risk for severe storms. In response to modest surface pressure falls to the immediate lee of the Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains by early Friday evening, increasing low-level moisture return into the eastern slopes of the higher terrain is forecast to contribute to increasing boundary-layer destabilization. Coupled with steepening mid-level lapse rates associated with strengthening mid/upper forcing for ascent and cooling aloft, the environment (including CAPE increasing up to 500 J/kg) may become increasingly conducive to intensifying thunderstorm development by late Friday evening. Shear profiles probably will become supportive of supercell structures with potential to produce marginally severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. The 17/00Z NAM forecast soundings and hodographs around Las Vegas NM, in particular, appear potentially supportive of a tornado around 06Z Friday night. ..Kerr.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level low will move eastward into the western Atlantic today, as an upper-level ridge moves across the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley and Great Lakes region. An upper-level trough will move across the western U.S., as mid-level flow remains southwesterly over much of the western and central U.S. Ahead of the trough, scattered thunderstorm development is expected over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Intermountain West and Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop across parts of south Florida. No severe threat is forecast across the U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough near the eastern Seaboard will move slowly eastward tonight, as an upper-level ridge moves gradually eastward through the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight from near and ahead of the trough from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near the trough in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorm development will be likely this evening across far south Texas. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. tonight. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough near the eastern Seaboard will move slowly eastward tonight, as an upper-level ridge moves gradually eastward through the central U.S. Further west, an upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West and Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible tonight from near and ahead of the trough from the Intermountain West into the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible near the trough in parts of the Pacific Northwest. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorm development will be likely this evening across far south Texas. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ..Broyles.. 10/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z ...Day 3/Friday... An amplified large-scale trough over the West will evolve into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region. On the backside of the trough, a belt of strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA, as the surface pressure gradient tightens. This will result in strong northerly surface winds across portions of the Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys into the Bay area -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. As a result, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. Farther south, the tightening offshore pressure gradient will also favor strong/gusty north-northeasterly surface winds across portions of southern CA. These winds will overlap low RH on for a few hours on Day 3/Friday morning, yielding elevated to locally critical conditions. Ahead of the large-scale trough, breezy/gusty southerly surface winds will persist across much of the Great Plains on Day 3/Friday. While low-level moisture return and increasing RH cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat (with limited confidence in critical conditions), elevated conditions cannot be ruled out along the eastern edge of the returning moisture. ..Weinman.. 10/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 16 21:12:01 UTC 2024.