SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that initially consolidated large-scale mid-level troughing, across the Pacific coast through the Rockies at the outset of the period, will become increasingly split while continuing inland. One notable embedded short wave trough is forecast to continue pivoting across and north/northeast of the Canadian Prairies, while a similar trailing perturbation amplifies southeastward, near/east of the Sierra Nevada through southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by 12Z Friday. It still appears that the primary and secondary surface cyclogenesis will accompany the lead impulse into the higher latitudes of interior Canada. The trailing cold front may surge east of the Canadian Prairies through much of northwestern Ontario by late Thursday night, while stalling northwest of the upper Great Lakes region through the northern Great Plains Red River Valley, and the higher terrain of southern Wyoming/northern Colorado into the southern Great Basin. Downstream, beneath building mid-level ridging to the west of confluent mid-level troughing east of the Appalachians into the western Atlantic, the center of expansive cold surface ridging is forecast to be maintained over the Ohio Valley/central Appalachians vicinity. This ridging appears likely to maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northern Gulf of Mexico. ...Pacific coast into Great Plains... It still appears that relatively warm layers aloft and the lack of sufficient low-level moisture return will preclude an appreciable risk for thunderstorm activity near the lingering modestly deep surface troughing/cold front across the northern Great Plains into Front Range vicinity. However, large-scale forcing for ascent and cooling aloft probably will contribute to sufficient destabilization to support scattered areas of weak thunderstorm activity from portions of the Pacific Northwest into the Great Basin and Rockies Thursday through Thursday night. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1134 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible across the Pacific Northwest into portions of the Great Basin and Rockies Wednesday afternoon into evening. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Deep South Texas and near or south of the Florida Keys. ...Discussion... Models indicate that flow will remain generally progressive across the mid-latitude Pacific into western North America through this period, and large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue developing inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains. Within this regime, one significant short wave impulse is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a similar trailing impulse digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region is forecast to become absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, after being forced northeastward. Downstream, developments remain somewhat more unclear near the Atlantic Seaboard, as a mid-level ridge becomes increasing prominent over the subtropical Atlantic. Initially amplified large-scale troughing along a positively tilted axis across the Atlantic Seaboard still appears likely to reach peak amplitude near or just before 12Z Wednesday, but guidance now appears to be trending a bit less progressive with a short wave perturbation emerging from the base of the troughing. It appears that this feature may contribute to the evolution of a modest mid-level low just offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, while a trailing perturbation digs across the eastern Gulf Coast region. However, associated surface wave development is still forecast to remain along a frontal zone well east of the Mid Atlantic coast. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwestern Texas into New Mexico. ...Florida Keys and Deep South Texas vicinities... While the front over the western Atlantic tends to slowly advance away from much of the Atlantic Seaboard, its trailing flank is forecast to stall near or southeast of the Florida Keys, and weaken across the south central Gulf of Mexico through lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. Seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content along this zone could support moderately large CAPE and widely scattered thunderstorm activity. ...Pacific Northwest into eastern Great Basin/adjacent Rockies... Despite limited moisture availability, mid/upper forcing for ascent, cooling aloft and orography may contribute to scattered weak thunderstorm activity Wednesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight. ...Four Corners States... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon, downstream of a weak mid-level low drifting southeast from the Lower CO Valley across AZ. Weak deep-layer shear will limit severe-storm potential. ...Southern Great Lakes to the central Appalachians... A broad and amplified mid-level trough will pivot southward across the East. A swath of cold 500-mb temperatures around -30 C will accompany this trough, supporting steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. With a shallow tropopause and meager surface-based buoyancy, low-topped showers will abound. The deepest of these should produce sporadic lightning flashes, mainly this afternoon. Weak lower-level winds will preclude organized cells. ...FL to far southeast LA... Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are most probable across the southern tip of the peninsula where low-level moisture will be sufficient for deep convection. Modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates should mitigate a severe risk. Farther north, pockets of low-level convergence along a quasi-stationary front over the northeast Gulf and across the north FL Peninsula may be sufficient for around a 10-percent thunderstorm probability during the late afternoon. This front will accelerate south tonight, but any convection along it should remain offshore. ..Grams/Bentley.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly this evening, across the Four Corners States ahead of a weak mid-level trough drifting southeast over the southern Great Basin. Lake-effect showers and embedded thunderstorms should remain most prevalent over Lake MI, but will also be possible south of Lake Huron and Erie. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled by the 00Z GRB/DTX soundings, will slowly slide south atop the relatively warm waters and support weak buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms remain possible, mainly this evening, across the Four Corners States ahead of a weak mid-level trough drifting southeast over the southern Great Basin. Lake-effect showers and embedded thunderstorms should remain most prevalent over Lake MI, but will also be possible south of Lake Huron and Erie. Steep mid-level lapse rates, sampled by the 00Z GRB/DTX soundings, will slowly slide south atop the relatively warm waters and support weak buoyancy for sporadic lightning flashes. ..Grams.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z ...Days 3/Wednesday... On Day 3/Wednesday, an expansive surface anticyclone will move eastward from the central Plains into the OH Valley. At the same time, a lee trough will deepen over the northern/central High Plains -- in response to strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West. This will result in a tightening pressure gradient and strong/gusty southerly surface winds across much of the northern/central High Plains -- aided by boundary-layer mixing into a strong low-level jet. Limited low-level moisture return will favor near-critical RH, and given very dry fuels, elevated to critical conditions are expected. Confidence in the development of critical conditions is highest over south-central SD and central NE, where the best overlap of strong winds and low RH is forecast amid the warmest surface temperatures. Farther west, the strong southwesterly midlevel winds accompanying the large-scale trough will overspread a relatively dry air mass over the Great Basin. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions during the afternoon. ...Days 4-5/Thursday-Friday... A tight pressure gradient and enhanced low-level jet will continue to promote strong/gusty southerly surface winds over a large portion of the Plains into the MS Valley on Day 4/Thursday. While elevated to near-critical conditions are expected, confidence in critical conditions is slightly lower than Day 3/Wednesday owing to uncertainty in RH reductions. On the backside of the large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread portions of central CA on Day 5/Friday. This will favor increasing fire-weather concerns, and elevated to critical conditions are possible. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20z Update... The D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no changes needed with this update. ..Thornton/Hart.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 14 19:46:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 14 19:46:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A deep mid/upper-level trough initially covering the eastern CONUS is forecast to move eastward on Wednesday, as an upper-level ridge builds into parts of the central/southern Great Plains and Midwest. A mid/upper-level trough over much of the West is forecast to gradually amplify through the period, as multiple embedded shortwaves traverse the region. At the surface, a cold front will continue moving southward across the central/northern Gulf of Mexico into parts of south FL and Deep South TX. In the wake of the front, an expansive surface ridge will inhibit low-level moisture return, with instability remaining very limited to nil across most of the CONUS. Across Deep South TX, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible, with relatively rich moisture expected to be in place prior to the frontal passage. While moderate buoyancy may support a strong storm or two within this regime, generally weak deep-layer flow/shear is expected to limit organized severe potential. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near and north of the Four Corners region, as a weak midlevel low initially over AZ weakens and moves northeastward within broader cyclonic flow. Cold temperatures aloft will support weak convection with potential for sporadic lightning flashes across parts of western WA/OR. Some lightning potential cannot be ruled out from northeast CA/northern NV into the interior Northwest, though confidence in more than very isolated flashes remains low at this time. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A deep, positively tilted upper-level trough will remain in place over the central/eastern CONUS on Tuesday, with an embedded shortwave trough forecast to dig southeastward from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Southeast and Mid Atlantic by Tuesday night. Across the West, a weak midlevel cyclone over parts of Arizona is forecast to move little through the period, while a deeper mid/upper-level trough and embedded shortwaves begin to affect the Pacific Northwest. Low-level moisture and instability will generally be limited across the CONUS, with an expansive surface ridge keeping richer moisture confined to parts of the immediate Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula. A southward-moving cold front will impinge upon the richer moisture through the day, but with stronger large-scale ascent displaced well to the north, thunderstorm potential along the front appears relatively limited. A storm or two cannot be ruled out across parts of the north-central FL Peninsula (especially in close proximity to the east and west coasts), and also across extreme southeast LA, but coverage is expected to remain quite isolated at best. Isolated storms will also be possible across parts of the FL Keys and far southern peninsula, where deeper tropical moisture will be in place. Some instability will spread southward along the TX Gulf Coast, and potentially inland into south-central TX, but confidence in storm development across this area prior to 12Z Wednesday remains low. Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across the Four Corners region, near and northeast of the midlevel cyclone over Arizona. Cold midlevel temperatures (less than -10C at 700 mb) will support convection capable of sporadic lightning flashes in the vicinity of southern Lake Michigan, Lake Erie, and parts of the Ohio Valley into the central Appalachians. Guidance currently suggests that thunderstorm potential associated with the Pacific Northwest trough will largely remain offshore, though very isolated lightning flashes cannot be ruled out near northwest WA by the end of the forecast period. ..Dean.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. Additionally, locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through this afternoon -- where breezy/gusty post-frontal winds will briefly overlap 25-35 percent RH. The overall risk appear too localized for an Elevated area. ..Weinman.. 10/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. A deep upper trough is present today over the Great Lakes region, where warm lake temperatures and cold air aloft will promote a few lightning strikes with lake-effect showers today. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of UT/northern AZ/western CO associated with a weak shortwave trough. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible this morning and afternoon across parts of New England as an upper trough continues eastward. Other low-topped convection will be possible today beneath the upper trough over portions of the Great Lakes, with seasonably warm lake temperatures and cold mid-level temperatures supporting modest buoyancy and occasional lightning flashes. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may occur this afternoon and evening across parts of UT and northern AZ into western CO, as a weak shortwave trough moves slowly southeastward over the Great Basin and Southwest. Weak instability across all these regions should greatly limit potential for severe thunderstorms through the period. ..Gleason/Jewell.. 10/14/2024 Read more