Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ..Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will track east from the southern Rockies to the Southeast on Wednesday. A 70+ kt jet streak will mostly overspread central/southern TX toward LA through evening before weakening some overnight along the central Gulf coast. A weak surface low is forecast to move across OK through evening, and dissipate as it shifts toward the Lower MS Valley overnight. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will allow for modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the I-20 corridor, but overall moisture quality is expected to remain poor given the prior very dry airmass. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will result in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from east TX into southern AR. Some forecast guidance suggests midlevel capping my inhibit surface-based convection, with the NAM notably being an outlier with much stronger inhibition around 850 mb compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Given the region will be within the favorable left-exit region of the midlevel jet streak, providing sufficient forcing amid supercell wind profiles, even elevated storms could pose a severe risk, from mainly large hail. If surface-based convection can develop, strong gusts or perhaps a tornado (mainly over east TX where somewhat better moisture will be located), though this potential is more conditional. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0136 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southwest Arkansas, and northwest Louisiana late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...ArkLaTex vicinity... An upper shortwave trough will track east from the southern Rockies to the Southeast on Wednesday. A 70+ kt jet streak will mostly overspread central/southern TX toward LA through evening before weakening some overnight along the central Gulf coast. A weak surface low is forecast to move across OK through evening, and dissipate as it shifts toward the Lower MS Valley overnight. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the low will allow for modest northward transport of Gulf moisture across eastern TX into the ArkLaTex vicinity. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the I-20 corridor, but overall moisture quality is expected to remain poor given the prior very dry airmass. Nevertheless, cooling aloft will result in an area of steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting a corridor of 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from east TX into southern AR. Some forecast guidance suggests midlevel capping my inhibit surface-based convection, with the NAM notably being an outlier with much stronger inhibition around 850 mb compared to the GFS/ECMWF. Given the region will be within the favorable left-exit region of the midlevel jet streak, providing sufficient forcing amid supercell wind profiles, even elevated storms could pose a severe risk, from mainly large hail. If surface-based convection can develop, strong gusts or perhaps a tornado (mainly over east TX where somewhat better moisture will be located), though this potential is more conditional. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Plains and Southeast ahead of a shortwave upper trough moving into the Southwest. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure over the eastern Gulf/Southeast will result in a dearth of boundary layer moisture east of the Rockies for much of the period. Further west, a surface low offshore southern CA will weaken as it moves east over southern CA during the afternoon/evening. Cool temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will support steep lapse rates and weak instability (MUCAPE generally less than 300 J/kg). Isolated thunderstorms will be possible offshore and may persist inland across a small part of southwest CA. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with a marginal risk for severe gusts, and potentially a brief tornado, will be possible today in parts of central Florida. ...Central Florida... A mid-level low will move eastward across Georgia today, as a positively-tilted trough approaches the Florida Peninsula. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the Florida Peninsula. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the mid to upper 60s F. As surface temperatures warm within this moist airmass this morning, instability will gradually increase. RAP forecast soundings across central Florida to the north of Lake Okeechobee have SBCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Surface-based thunderstorms are expected to develop around mid morning, supported by frontal forcing and large-scale ascent associated with a mid-level jet passing to the north. The storms will move eastward across central Florida from late morning into early afternoon. Near the front, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be around 50 knots, which suggests that a marginal severe threat could develop. Short multicell line segments could have potential for isolated severe gusts as low-level lapse rates become maximized around midday. A brief tornado could also be possible, if a rotating storm can develop. The severe threat is expected to end during the afternoon, as the stronger low-level flow moves offshore into the western Atlantic. ..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 100100Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from parts of far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia into northern and central Florida. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern and Central Florida... A shortwave trough is evident on water vapor imagery over northern Florida, where scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. Additional storms are located further west into parts of the Florida Panhandle and far southeast Alabama. Most of this convection is to the north of a slow-moving front located across the northern Florida Peninsula. The strongest of storms that remain to the north of the front will be elevated and may have a potential for hail. Some of the cells that generate in the northeast Gulf this evening will move into northern Florida, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is present. These storms could be surface-based and have potential for isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The marginal severe threat could continue into the overnight period, as a mid-level low approaches from the west. ..Broyles.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0412 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z A very active fire-weather pattern is expected across the southern Plains throughout the extended forecast period, as a series of robust midlevel shortwave troughs traverse the area amid increasingly dry/receptive fuels. The greatest concern is on Day 6/Friday, when widespread critical conditions are expected across the southern Plains, with the potential for high-end critical to extremely critical conditions also evident. ...Days 3-5/Tuesday-Thursday - Southern High Plains... The first low-latitude midlevel shortwave trough and related strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during this time frame. This will yield dry/windy conditions west of the dryline each afternoon, with critical conditions expected. ...Day 6/Friday - Southern Plains... A highly amplified large-scale trough and attendant 100+ kt midlevel jet streak will emerge over the southern Plains, while a surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central Plains. In response, very strong deep-layer westerly flow will overspread a deep/dry air mass across the southern Plains, where fuels will be drying out leading up to the event. This system will favor widespread critical to extremely critical fire-weather conditions. Further northeastward extensions of the 70-percent Critical probabilities may become necessary in future outlooks as forecast confidence increases regrading RH reductions. Thereafter, a secondary low-latitude shortwave trough will likely emerge over the southern High Plains on Day 7/Saturday, leading to another day of critical conditions across the region. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0159 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0159 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...the Florida Panhandle...southern Alabama...and southwest Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 091947Z - 092215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms are likely to produce hail through this evening. DISCUSSION...A quasi-stationary front currently exists over the northeastern Gulf, and near the coastal Florida Panhandle. While stronger overall instability resides to the south, substantial elevated instability exists well inland as southwest winds aloft persist and aid in moisture transport. Forecast soundings show strong effective shear over 60 kt, and these lengthy hodographs ahead of the upper trough will support hail production in elevated storms, including left movers. While only a few storms currently exist, additional development is possible near the frontal zone throughout the rest of the day. The primary threat should be hail above 1.00" diameter. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 29948418 29558494 29628534 29998572 30328644 30298714 30238758 30608750 31328710 31898596 31888457 31278402 30708395 29948418 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 9 21:19:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... There were two additions made with this update: 1) A Critical area was added over portions of the northern Plains, where 25-35 mph sustained surface winds (with gusts upwards of 45 mph) are expected in the vicinity of a southward-moving cold front. High-resolution guidance is in relatively good agreement, indicating that these westerly surface winds will at least briefly overlap 15-25 percent RH ahead of the front, before switching to a west-northwesterly direction and strengthening behind the front amid increasing RH. Upon coordination with the local forecast offices, fine fuels should be at least modestly receptive to large-fire spread, and given the magnitude of the winds and eventual wind shift, the Critical highlights are warranted. 2) Farther south, an Elevated area was added over parts of the central Plains (with a gap between the above-mentioned highlights where snowpack persists). These highlights were added where relatively less precipitation has occurred over the last few weeks, which should favor elevated to locally critical fire concerns -- given the expected dry/breezy conditions along the surface trough during the afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also expected along the Front Range (particularly in the gap flow areas), though these conditions appear too localized for highlights at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...20z Update... The ongoing forecast remains largely on track with only minor adjustments made to include the Tampa Bay area. Convection over the Gulf and just off the FL Panhandle coast has shown an uptick in intensity over the past hour per GOES IR and MRMS imagery, including splitting supercells west of the Panama City, FL area. These convective trends appear to confirm recent forecast soundings that depict a strongly sheared, but nearly uni-directional, wind profile over the region. Additional isolated supercells appear possible through the remainder of the afternoon across southeast AL/southern GA into northern FL (see forthcoming MCD #159 for additional details). Later tonight, convection is expected to increase in coverage along the surface front/trough as it moves towards the western FL coast. While thermodynamic profiles may be somewhat marginal due to poor low-level lapse rates and unfavorable timing with the nocturnal cooling maximum, a strongly sheared environment coupled with focused forcing for ascent may support strong/severe convection as storms move ashore early Monday. ..Moore.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow will persist over the CONUS Tuesday, as low-amplitude ridging moves eastward. A post-frontal air mass is expected over the eastern half of the US, with surface high pressure and offshore flow limiting inland moisture return and buoyancy. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the southern Plains late in the forecast period, as a shortwave trough moves over northern Mexico. Weak northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture is possible into south/coastal TX late. While isolated showers are possible, the air mass will likely be too dry for thunderstorms. A sporadic lightning flash from weak elevated convection beneath the cold core of the advancing upper trough is possible over parts of the Southwest. However, more than sporadic thunder potential appears unlikely given the cool, dry, and stable conditions over much of the US. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 9 17:52:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula. ...Coastal Carolinas... As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response, the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for severe storms low. ...Florida Peninsula... Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures, resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the front moves offshore by early afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more