SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas later this afternoon and evening. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and some tornado threat does exist. ...Eastern New Mexico Region... Notable upper low has settled into AZ late this evening as stronger mid-level flow translates into the base of the trough. Latest model guidance suggests this feature will not begin to eject northeast until later Sunday when 500mb speed max rotates into the southern Rockies. As a result, not only are height falls not anticipated across the southern Rockies/adjacent High Plains, but rather height rises appear likely as this feature gradually fills. Even so, modest-strong mid-level southwesterly flow will persist across northern Mexico into eastern New Mexico through the period. Dominant surface anticyclone over the OH Valley will ensure southeasterly boundary-layer flow across west TX into the southern Rockies, and this will maintain moist low-level upslope trajectories (surface dew points in the 50s). Latest model guidance suggests strongest boundary-layer heating will develop across northern Mexico into southwest NM, primarily west of the San Andres Mountains. Forecast soundings depict weak inhibition near/west of this higher terrain by 20z. Greatest corridor of instability should extend across the TX Big Bend into eastern NM, just east of the highest terrain. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will evolve over the mountains, and within the favored upslope regime. This activity will spread northeast within the mean flow and supercells are likely. Some consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities as storm coverage should be extensive later this afternoon compared to Friday afternoon/evening. Large hail, along with some tornado risk can be expected. Will maintain MRGL Risk for now, but an upgrade may be warranted in later outlooks. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/19/2024 Read more

MD 2148 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2148 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0817 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Areas affected...Northeast New Mexico...Far Southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190117Z - 190345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat will likely continue across parts of northeast New Mexico this evening, and could also affect far southeast Colorado. Large hail and a few marginally severe gusts will be possible. Weather watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level low over central Arizona with cyclonic southwesterly mid-level flow located over the southern Rockies. Large-scale ascent appears to be maximized over northeastern New Mexico where widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The airmass across eastern New Mexico is weakly unstable with the RAP estimating MLCAPE in the 750 to 1000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings in northeast New Mexico have 0-6 km shear near 40 knots with somewhat steep lapse rates above 700 mb. This may be enough for a supercell with potential for large hail. A severe gust or two will may also occur. The severe threat is expected to remain very isolated this evening. ..Broyles/Guyer.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36780483 35970510 35170528 34770503 34600472 34540426 34680384 35060354 36180321 36860311 37230328 37420369 37400403 37270443 36780483 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0730 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado remain possible this evening over parts of eastern New Mexico region. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low is settling into northern AZ as the primary 500mb speed max translates into the base of the trough near the international border. This evolution will not contribute to appreciable height falls over the southern High Plains tonight, but strong deep-layer shear and moist/weakly buoyant profiles continue to favor some risk for supercells. One longer-lived updraft/supercell is lifting north-northeast across western De Baca County NM. This storm has some characteristics that favor small hail, but otherwise might be producing some wind gusts. Otherwise, scattered strong/severe convection should continue across parts of eastern NM this evening as moist, weak upslope flow will persist through the overnight hours. Strong convection will struggle to advance into TX later tonight as 00z soundings at both MAF and AMA exhibit only modestly steep lapse rates with substantial inhibition in the 750-700mb layer. ..Darrow.. 10/19/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 18 22:10:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2147 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO
Mesoscale Discussion 2147 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Areas affected...northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 182046Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few storms may produce marginally severe hail later this afternoon from northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from east-central CO into northern NM, with low pressure developing ahead of it from northwest NM into southeast CO. Gusty southerly winds are aiding moisture advection into the region with lower 50s F dewpoints. Visible imagery shows clearing east of a dryline and south of the cold front, where MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg has developed. Continued heating should result in scattered storms developing over eastern NM, with meridional flow resulting in northeastward storm motions. Veering and increasing winds with height is resulting in elongated hodographs with around 40 kt effective shear. Lapse rates are not particularly steep today, but sufficient moisture and instability combined with favorable shear should yield a few supercells with a hail threat. ..Jewell.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 34210505 35180507 36050512 36800483 37470452 37570401 37390355 36910319 36170315 34690311 34130319 33920427 33950484 34040495 34210505 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains valid with only minor modifications to the Thunder area over the West. Thunder chances should steadily decrease this afternoon/evening as a deep upper cyclone and a surface cold front translate southeast with the arrival of a colder and more stable air mass. ...Four Corners... Across portions of the Four Corners, a band of low-topped convection has shown occasional stronger embedded features across parts of northern AZ and far southwestern CO. A few of these storms could slowly intensify through the afternoon ahead of the upper low and cold front. While buoyancy is marginal (generally less than 500 J/kg of MUCAPE), 50-60 kts of deep-layer shear could support a risk for transient rotating/organized storms capable of locally strong gusts or a brief tornado from northern AZ, into parts of northern NM and far southwest CO. The risk should begin to wane early this evening as the cold front shifts eastward and the already limited buoyancy is dissipated. ...Southern High Plains/Rockies... Initially isolated to widely scattered storms, including a few supercell structures, still appear likely this afternoon and into the evening hours across portions of the southern High Plains and Rockies. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind and perhaps a brief tornado. The Marginal Risk area remains unchanged, see the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes are need to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... The upper low and attendant trough over the Four Corners region will progress northeast toward the central Plains on Sunday. Large-scale ascent will likely remain weak across the area until evening or overnight when the upper system ejects northeast. Southeasterly low-level flow will maintain modest moisture across the region. Ongoing showers and cloudiness will likely preclude stronger destabilization through the day. However, a narrow corridor of modest instability and increasing vertical shear may develop across parts of eastern NM and vicinity. A couple of supercells producing hail, gusty winds and perhaps a tornado will be possible by early evening. Given the overall similar pattern and environment to that of the prior couple of days, a Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been included with the Day 3 update across eastern NM. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Oct 18 17:56:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1205 PM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Southern Plains... A large-scale pattern favoring isolated severe thunderstorms will persist across the southern High Plains on Saturday. A closed mid/upper cyclone will remain over the Four Corners vicinity, with moderate mid/upper southwesterly flow on the eastern periphery of this system overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In the low levels, southeasterly return flow will support mid/upper 50s F dewpoints across western TX into eastern NM and the OK/TX Panhandles. Early day showers and cloudiness may limit heating, and hence, surface-based instability remains in question. Forecast guidance suggests a corridor or relative stronger heating may occur from the Davis Mountains into east-central NM. Meanwhile, cool temperatures aloft resulting in steep midlevel lapse rates will support modest instability. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing with height, will favor supercells. Large hail will be the main risk with these storms. Midlevel flow will increase toward evening, resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs and strengthening SRH. If any cells are surface-based and can remain so into the early evening, a tornado or two also will be possible, in addition to strong thunderstorm wind gusts. Severe potential should wane with southward extent given weakening forcing for ascent and more modest shear. However, greater moisture/instability will exist from the Davis Mountains toward the Rio Grande/Trans-Pecos vicinity. If a storm can develop and become maintained east of the higher terrain, a conditional risk of large hail will exist. Confidence in storm longevity/coverage is too low to extent the Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) southward at this time. ..Leitman.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. An isolated threat for severe may locally develop from northern Arizona into southwest Colorado. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level low centered over the NV/UT/AZ border vicinity and this feature will move east-southeast into northern AZ before nearly stalling later tonight. An associated cold front will push east across the Four Corners through this afternoon. Farther east, the southwestern extension of a Midwest front will push southward through eastern CO before decelerating near the Raton Mesa. ...Northern AZ into southwest CO through this afternoon... Strong large-scale ascent immediately ahead of the upper low will gradually shift east across the Mogollon Rim through the early afternoon. The 12 UTC Flagstaff, AZ raob showed weak buoyancy but an enlarged hodograph. Visible-satellite and radar imagery show widely scattered deepening convection near the Rim on the northern extent of a moist axis from the lower deserts into northern AZ. Forecast soundings show surface-based buoyancy (100-400 J/kg SBCAPE) across northern/eastern AZ. As a result, a couple of shallow transient-rotating storms may yield short-duration risk for a brief tornado and/or locally strong gust. The risk for strong/severe gusts may extend as far northeast as southwest CO with a stronger storm or two before cold front passage later today. ...Southern High Plains and escarpments... Late morning surface analysis and visible-satellite imagery denote a low-level moisture plume from west TX into eastern NM, where dewpoints range in the 50s deg F. Heating through the mid-late afternoon will yield generally 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across eastern NM. Model guidance indicates a weakened capping inversion towards the late afternoon over the Eastern Plains of NM. Initially isolated to widely scattered storm coverage during the 21z-00z window will transition to greater storm coverage towards sunset and into the overnight, especially over the northeast quarter of NM. Despite the time-lagged nature of the forcing associated with the upper low, storms will mature into the evening. The stronger storms will potentially be capable of an isolated risk for hail/wind. Where surface-based buoyancy lingers near the escarpment in the northeast quarter of NM during the early evening, a threat for a tornado may develop. ..Smith/Squitieri.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/18/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1251 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon into the overnight hours along portions of the southern California coast. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible along the western slopes of the Sacramento Valley in northern California. Early-morning surface observations show a cold front pushing southeast across the Great Basin and central/southern CA. Strong northerly low to mid-level winds are anticipated behind this front by mid-morning across the southern CA ranges, which should induce an offshore flow regime. An influx of drier air combined with downslope warming/drying will promote areas of RH reductions to 10-20% in the lee of the coastal ranges. Latest guidance suggests elevated to critical fire weather conditions are most probable in the lee of the San Gabriel and San Bernardino ranges with winds gusting up to 40-50 mph possible. These conditions are expected to linger into the overnight hours as a surface high builds to the north across the Great Basin and reinforces the offshore pressure-gradient flow. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are anticipated further east across the Mojave Desert into the Sonoran Desert in southwest AZ, but limited fuel availability and/or receptiveness should limit fire concerns. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, dewpoints have fallen by around 20 F over the past 12-18 hours in the wake of the surface front. This drier air, combined with diurnal heating/mixing, will promote 15-25% RH minimums this afternoon as breezy post-frontal winds between 15-25 mph persist through the day. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail, damaging gusts and a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the southern Rockies and southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a heretofore progressive and high-amplitude pattern will slow down temporarily, across the western half of the CONUS. A strong trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the northern Rockies south-southwestward across the Great Basin to near the lower Colorado River Valley. A 500-mb low is forming along the trough in NV -- and will deepen through the period while anchoring an increasingly pronounced and slower-moving cyclone. By 00Z, the low should be over central AZ between FLG-PHX, then wobble erratically over the same area through the remainder of the period. At 11Z, the surface analysis showed a cold front from northwestern MN, through a low between PIR-HON, then southwestward to another low near AKO and into central CO. This front should shift slowly southeastward through the period, to a position from northeastern MN to northeastern NE to near RTN by 12Z. There it should connect to another cold front now analyzed from a surface low over southeastern UT, southwestward across northern/southwestern AZ. The western front should move east-southeastward into central NM tonight, then decelerate in step with the associated mid/upper cyclone. A vast, continental anticyclone surrounds a high analyzed over western PA, and covers most of the CONUS from the Mississippi Valley eastward, with ridging southwestward across south TX. The high should remain over the interior Mid-Atlantic region through the period, while ridging persists southwestward through south TX. ...Southern Rockies/High Plains region... A band of convection -- now producing considerable lighting from southeastern UT into northern AZ -- should persist through much of the period and shift eastward-southeastward, reaching from the San Juan Mountains of southwestern CO across much of western NM between 00Z-03Z this evening. While isolated strong gusts or small hail may occur with this partly frontally forced activity, very limited buoyancy should preclude an organized severe threat. Farther east, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms should form in the warm sector this afternoon, over and near the ranges from the Guadalupe Mountains northward to the east side of the Sangre de Cristos. Convection also may develop over adjoining Plains, given diurnal heating in a weakly capped setting that lacks an antecedent EML. Some of this activity may become supercellular amidst increasing deep shear, with isolated damaging gusts and severe hail possible. Tornado potential still appears marginal. A host of mostly offsetting factors continue in the forecast environment in and near the outlook area today, keeping the unconditional severe probabilities in the marginal range for this cycle. Thermodynamically, the immobility and intensity of the low-level anticyclone over the East will limit favorable moisture to a narrow, only partially Gulf-modified return-flow corridor through the period. 50s F surface dewpoints -- already common at lower elevations in eastern NM, should mix into the 40s F where diurnal heating is most sustained today over the Plains. Upper 40s to lower 50s dewpoints may persist farther northwest under more persistently cloudy areas, leading to greater RH and lower LCL, but amid cooler surface temperatures. However, at higher elevations, this still may support surface-based effective-inflow parcels. With the coolest midlevel temperatures and strongest DCVA aloft lagging closer to the cyclone core, and mostly behind the low-level cold front, poor midlevel lapse rates will limit buoyancy over the region. This, and lack of richer moisture, should keep MLCAPE generally in the 300-800 J/kg range -- and highly variable depending on elevation and patchy heating/mixing. Vertical shear amid southwest flow aloft will strengthen through the evening along/ahead of the western frontal zone as the cyclone digs into AZ. Enlarging hodographs and low-level shear will accompany a strengthening low-level jet and greater moisture this evening and tonight over much of eastern NM, along/ahead of the slow-moving frontal convective arc. However, this also will coincide with nocturnal boundary-layer stabilization and likely an increasingly messy convective mode. A window of tornado potential may exist from late afternoon into early evening during that transition, especially at higher elevations of the Plains/mesa country, but still appears too isolated and conditional for more than marginal probabilities. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/18/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For this coming Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central Plains. Models indicate that a narrow, and increasingly limited, band of moisture will be present ahead of the trough and associated surface front. Though thunderstorms are possible in parts of eastern Kansas with this activity, severe weather potential appears low at this time. As the central Plains trough moves east, it is expected to lose amplitude and eventually phase with a stronger, broader upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley region around the middle of next week. While models begin to diverge on the upper-level pattern at that time, the general consensus is for a cold font to push into parts of the southern Plains as well as to near the Gulf Coast and off the Atlantic Coast. With moisture ahead of the front still looking limited, severe thunderstorms do not appear probable along the boundary. Thereafter, surface ridging in the eastern third of the CONUS, along with another upper ridge over the Divide, will keep severe weather potential low through at least the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... For this coming Monday, a shortwave trough is forecast to move into the central Plains. Models indicate that a narrow, and increasingly limited, band of moisture will be present ahead of the trough and associated surface front. Though thunderstorms are possible in parts of eastern Kansas with this activity, severe weather potential appears low at this time. As the central Plains trough moves east, it is expected to lose amplitude and eventually phase with a stronger, broader upper trough moving through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley region around the middle of next week. While models begin to diverge on the upper-level pattern at that time, the general consensus is for a cold font to push into parts of the southern Plains as well as to near the Gulf Coast and off the Atlantic Coast. With moisture ahead of the front still looking limited, severe thunderstorms do not appear probable along the boundary. Thereafter, surface ridging in the eastern third of the CONUS, along with another upper ridge over the Divide, will keep severe weather potential low through at least the end of next week and possibly into next weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A stronger storm or two is possible in parts of the southern High Plains, though severe weather potential continues to appear low. ...Synopsis... The Four Corners upper low will be in the process of becoming an open wave Sunday morning. The trough will eventually accelerate eastward by Monday morning, but is not expected to eject into the southern High Plains until mid/late evening Sunday. Continued surface troughing into the southern High Plains will keep very modest moisture influx into the region around the Ohio Valley anticyclone. The Pacific front in New Mexico/Colorado will slowly move eastward along with the upper trough. ...Northeast New Mexico into Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles Vicinity... A narrow band of moisture will persist within the region on account of the southeasterly surface winds. Cloud cover and some potential for early-day precipitation is expected to keep temperatures rather cool. The strongest forcing for ascent is not likely to arrive until mid/late evening into the overnight. Temperatures aloft will be cold enough to promote 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE, and deep-layer shear could support some modest storm organization. Given the late timing of the mid-level height falls and the cold front, potential for severe weather appears low. Isolated strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail are possible in the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated conditions are anticipated Saturday morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern CA and the northwestern Sacramento Valley. The upper-level trough currently deepening over the Great Basin is expected to begin occluding by early Saturday over the Southwest. Elevated fire weather conditions will likely be ongoing within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast at the start of the period, but will become increasingly localized through the day as low to mid-level winds abate with the weakening synoptic low. Elevated conditions may linger into the late afternoon between the San Gabriel and Sierra Madre ranges where gap winds around 15 mph should coincide with 10-20% RH values around peak heating. Further north, northerly down-valley winds are expected to persist through the northern Sacramento Valley. However, as with areas further south, a general weakening of the regional pressure gradient should yield diminishing winds through the afternoon, with more localized elevated fire weather conditions as a result. ..Moore.. 10/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern High Plains Saturday into Saturday night. Large hail will be the primary threat, though isolated severe winds and a tornado may also occur with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough within the lower Colorado River Valley will become a closed low in the Southwest and become nearly stationary just south of the Four Corners on Saturday. Mid-level winds associated with this feature are expected to weaken some as compared to Friday, though some intensification may occur as the trough becomes more progressive by early Sunday morning. At the surface, modest return flow of generally poor-quality low-level moisture will continue into the southern High Plains as a surface trough is maintained from eastern Colorado into eastern New Mexico. Nebulous ascent from the upper-level low as well as low-level warm advection should promote some showers/thunderstorms early in the period, especially in New Mexico. ...Central/eastern New Mexico into western Texas... Southeasterly return flow around the surface high in the Ohio Valley will maintain mid to upper 50s F dewpoints in the southern High Plains. Forcing from the upper low and a Pacific cold front will promote late-afternoon thunderstorm development from central to eastern New Mexico. Ongoing precipitation early in the period gives some uncertainty as to how much surface-based destabilization will occur. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg appears possible where greater heating occurs with closer to 500 J/kg elsewhere. However, there appears a slightly more favorable zone for heating from the Davis Mountains into east-central New Mexico. Deep-layer shear will be favorable for supercells, and mid-level lapse rates will remain steep enough to support some threat for large hail even if some storms remain slightly elevated. Isolated strong to severe gusts could occur with the most organized supercells. Low-level shear will increase after 00Z, but a simultaneous increase in low-level stability is also expected. Even so, a narrow window exists for a tornado or two should a mature supercell persist into the early evening. Given a slightly slower eastward progression of the upper low in recent guidance, a small westward shift in severe probabilities was made. Some guidance shows convection developing within the Davis Mountains. Given the weak synoptic lift and potential for low-level clouds and stable conditions to the east, it is not clear if storms will develop or for how long they can persist eastward into marginally greater moisture. A conditional threat for severe hail would exist if a storm or two can develop and mature in the Trans-Pecos region. ..Wendt.. 10/18/2024 Read more