SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A northwest flow regime will exist across the CONUS today, with multiple embedded waves. In general, minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast due to a relatively stable air mass due to high pressure. One such high will be situated over the Southeast and into the Gulf through the period, with minimal moisture return into southern TX. Another surface high will be centered over the Great Basin for much of the period. That said, thunderstorm chances will be limited to a small part of the Pacific Northwest, and from southeast SD across IA and into IL. Both areas will be beneath their respective shortwave troughs, with cool temperatures aloft supporting weak convection. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast today. ...Synopsis... A northwest flow regime will exist across the CONUS today, with multiple embedded waves. In general, minimal thunderstorm activity is forecast due to a relatively stable air mass due to high pressure. One such high will be situated over the Southeast and into the Gulf through the period, with minimal moisture return into southern TX. Another surface high will be centered over the Great Basin for much of the period. That said, thunderstorm chances will be limited to a small part of the Pacific Northwest, and from southeast SD across IA and into IL. Both areas will be beneath their respective shortwave troughs, with cool temperatures aloft supporting weak convection. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 210100Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms possible for a short time this evening over the coastal Mid-Atlantic, with sporadic lightning flashes over the northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis... Scattered showers and thunderstorms currently exist along the cold from over the Mid Atlantic, and remain weak due to limited instability. This front will continue to push rapidly offshore along with the parent trough. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes remain possible this evening over the northern Rockies beneath an upper wave within the northwest flow regime. However, this activity is expected to wane as well with the loss of heating. ..Jewell.. 03/21/2025 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 281200Z Early in the extended period D3-Saturday, a period of Elevated to Critical conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern and central Plains. A few periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across the central Plains as cold fronts move across the area with dry/breezy prefrontal conditions. Above normal temperatures and drying conditions will lead to drying fuels across the Southwestern US. ...D3 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D3 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, with the driest conditions across western Texas. A 70 percent delineation was added with this outlook where highest confidence in relative humidity in the single digits to teens with overlapping Critical winds will be. In addition, a 40 percent area was added to account for overlap of windy/dry conditions in the Nebraska Panhandle as increased westerly flow across the Rockies leads to downslope warming and drying across this region. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Mar 20 22:06:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 202000Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and no changes were made with this update. A swath of showers with isolated/embedded lightning is tracking east-northeastward across the Mid-Atlantic ahead of the front this afternoon. A few strong gusts (40-50 mph) may accompany this activity as it overspreads portions of northeastern NC and southeastern VA -- where continued diurnal heating and steepening low-level lapse rates will aid in downward momentum transport. However, the overall risk of severe wind gusts still appears too low for probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...North-Central Texas... A Critical area was introduced across north-central Texas with the update to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. Along and behind the trailing cold front across north-central Texas, strong surface winds are expected. While some moisture return is expected ahead of the front, much drier air is expected to filter in from the west-southwest as the front shifts eastward. An area of overlap of sustained winds around 20 mph and relative humidity reductions to around 15-20 percent will bring potential for Critical fire weather conditions amid fuels that are very dry and receptive to fire spread. ...Southeastern Florida Peninsula... Lighter winds are progged across southeastern Florida on Friday, relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent will be possible. A brief period of locally Elevated conditions will be possible before winds shift to a more northeasterly trajectory bringing onshore flow and improving relative humidity. Several large fires are ongoing across this area on D1 - Thursday. Otherwise, no changes were made to the broader Elevated areas. See previous outlook for more information. ..Thornton/Williams.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF MO...EASTERN OK/KS...AND NORTHWEST AR... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, mainly from large hail, are possible on Saturday night in/near the Ozark Plateau. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... No change to the prior outlook of level 1-MRGL risk. Elevated severe hail remains possible Saturday evening into the overnight, with potential for a mesoscale area of level 2-SLGT in a future outlook. The next in a series of shortwave troughs progressing from the northern Rockies into the North-Central States will yield modified moisture recovery from the western Gulf, beneath an increasingly expansive/stout EML. The degree of moistening depicted in some models is questionable owing to predominately 20s/30s surface dew points at present along the TX Gulf Coast. Elevated buoyancy will likely remain weak with MUCAPE at/below 1000 J/kg. But strengthening forcing for ascent should support elevated thunderstorms as early as Saturday evening across the Ozark Plateau, increasing in coverage during the night. Within a predominately westerly mid to upper wind profile, given the geometry of the northern Great Plains shortwave trough, favorable speed shear should exist for at least a few elevated supercells. The potentially limited buoyancy and perhaps a more widespread cluster-type convective mode may modulate the overall coverage/intensity of the large hail threat. The southern extent of convective development may have a sharp cutoff beyond the Ozarks given the expected strength of the EML and neutral mid-level height change through 12Z Sunday. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected Friday. ...Mid-MO/MS Valleys... A compact shortwave impulse currently over the northern Rockies will progress across parts of the Mid-MO/MS Valleys Friday. Despite a dearth of low-level moisture, diurnally steepening lapse rates along with a focused corridor of moderate large-scale ascent should support a swath of isolated to scattered low-topped convection, primarily from late morning to early evening. Meager buoyancy should be adequate for sporadic lightning. Gusty, sub-severe winds may accompany this activity, especially across the southern portion of the convective threat, owing to a deeper mixed boundary layer and 30-40 kt 850-mb westerlies. ...Northwest... The next shortwave trough will move inland of the Pacific Northwest coast and reach the northern Rockies by Friday night. Scattered low-topped convection should accompany this wave within a confined belt of stronger forcing for ascent coincident with scant buoyancy at most. Isolated thunderstorms are possible near the Cascades on Friday afternoon, shifting east across the Columbia Basin and into the northern Rockies through late evening. ..Grams.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... No changes were made to the D1 Critical areas across the southern High Plains and in the southeastern Florida Peninsula. Minor adjustments were made to the Elevated to extend it into eastern Colorado given recent forecast guidance indicating likely Elevated conditions. Some portion of this area did receive rain/snowfall over the last 48 hours. Consecutive afternoons of drying should allow fine fuels to dry sufficiently for potential to spread fire. An Elevated delineation was added in across coastal Texas into portions of southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. In these regions, northwesterly flow around 10-15 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to 25-35 percent. Fuels across the Texas coast are critically dry, with ERCs above the 90th percentile and near all time record dryness for March. Fuels across Louisiana/Mississippi are above average for dryness and around the 50th percentile for ERCs. Given the more marginal relative humidity overall, an Elevated delineation was appropriate to cover this risk. ..Thornton.. 03/20/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/Southeast VA... Strong heating ahead of an eastward-developing surface front will allow temperatures to continue climbing into the 70s F this afternoon. Boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, with surface dewpoints generally reaching the mid/upper 50s F in a narrow corridor just as the surface front arrives. Morning balloon observations from GSO, RNK, IAD, and WAL show very dry midlevels as well. While some midlevel moistening will occur as strong midlevel southwesterlies overspread the region, overall airmass modification will remain poor. MLCAPE values are expected to remain stunted, generally less than 100-200 J/kg. This may be sufficient for a few lightning flashes as convection develops during the mid afternoon along the surface front. A well-mixed boundary layer to near 850 mb, where 25-40 kt of flow is forecast, is evident in forecast soundings. This may support a few strong gusts to 40 kt, but very poor thermodynamic profiles suggest potential for severe thunderstorms should remain low, precluding severe probabilities. ..Leitman/Squitieri.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC. While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025 Read more