SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Eastern NC/southeast VA this afternoon... A midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front will progress eastward from the Appalachians to the Atlantic coast by late this evening/early tonight. Only a narrow corridor of low-level moistening is expected ahead of the front, as a result of only partial air mass modification and poor trajectories from the Gulf and western Atlantic. There could be sufficient heating and moistening for very weak buoyancy (100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and convection deep enough to produce isolated lightning flashes in a band along the front this afternoon, especially across eastern NC. While there is a low chance for isolated wind damage, the very weak buoyancy does not support the addition of severe wind probabilities. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/20/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Sunday. An upper-level low will develop over the Great Lakes, as an associated trough moves southeastward from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is forecast to occur over the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F and moderate instability is expected to develop. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to initiate ahead of the front Sunday evening from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley, with an MCS developing Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support severe thunderstorm development, with a potential for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail. A tornado threat may also develop. A cold front is forecast to move through the Gulf Coast region Sunday morning. Isolated severe storms could develop ahead of the front early in the day from the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. Predictability remains low concerning where the greatest severe threat will be along this corridor. The severe threat should end during the day as the front moves southward into the Gulf. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain over the Gulf Coast region. Isolated strong to severe storms could occur along the northern edge of this moist airmass. The greatest potential for severe could be across the Sabine River Valley, where some solutions have moderate instability Tuesday afternoon. This appears to be a conditional severe threat, and predictability is low. From Wednesday into Thursday, a relatively dry airmass is forecast over much of the nation. The exception could be across south Texas, where thunderstorm development will be possible. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible there, predictability at this extended range in the forecast cycle is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... A large-scale cyclonic flow pattern will be in place across much of the continental U.S. on Sunday. An upper-level low will develop over the Great Lakes, as an associated trough moves southeastward from the Great Plains to the Mississippi Valley. A cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the Ozarks. Ahead of the front, moisture advection is forecast to occur over the Sabine and lower Mississippi Valleys, where surface dewpoints will likely be in the 60s F and moderate instability is expected to develop. Scattered thunderstorms appear likely to initiate ahead of the front Sunday evening from the Sabine River Valley northeastward into the Tennessee Valley, with an MCS developing Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer shear will likely support severe thunderstorm development, with a potential for severe wind gusts, isolated large hail. A tornado threat may also develop. A cold front is forecast to move through the Gulf Coast region Sunday morning. Isolated severe storms could develop ahead of the front early in the day from the Texas Coast eastward to the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. Predictability remains low concerning where the greatest severe threat will be along this corridor. The severe threat should end during the day as the front moves southward into the Gulf. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... On Tuesday, a mid-level trough is forecast to dig southeastward into the Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will remain over the Gulf Coast region. Isolated strong to severe storms could occur along the northern edge of this moist airmass. The greatest potential for severe could be across the Sabine River Valley, where some solutions have moderate instability Tuesday afternoon. This appears to be a conditional severe threat, and predictability is low. From Wednesday into Thursday, a relatively dry airmass is forecast over much of the nation. The exception could be across south Texas, where thunderstorm development will be possible. Although an isolated severe threat would be possible there, predictability at this extended range in the forecast cycle is low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night. Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850 mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight, as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more conditional. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... An isolated severe threat, with potential for large hail, is expected Saturday night into early Sunday morning across parts of the southern and central Plains into the Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks... A mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northern Rockies on Saturday and into the central Plains Saturday night. Moisture advection will take place during the day ahead of the trough across the southern Plains and Ozarks. By early Saturday evening, an axis of instability with surface dewpoints in the 50s F, is forecast from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas. A cold front will advance quickly southeastward through the central Plains Saturday evening, as a 50 to 60 knot jet strengthens ahead of the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop late Saturday evening ahead of the front on the nose of the low-level jet. During the overnight period, convection is forecast to expand eastward from southeast Kansas across the Ozarks. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop further southwestward into northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Forecast soundings from 06Z to 12Z on Sunday morning along the instability axis have a low-level temperature inversion below 850 mb. Across parts of southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri, MUCAPE is forecast to be in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range, with effective shear from 50 to 65 knots. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be around 7 C/km. This environment will likely support isolated supercells that are elevated, with potential for large hail. The greatest severe threat is expected to be after midnight, as the low-level jet consolidates over far northeast Oklahoma. The greatest severe threat is expected over southeast Kansas and south-central Missouri, where confidence is the greatest for convection initiation. Further to the southwest across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, convective initiation is more uncertain, suggesting that a severe threat there is more conditional. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0112 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue to linger across the Plains and parts of the Midwest on Friday as a dry cold front pushes southeastward across the central CONUS. The weak upper trough currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest and an attendant surface low are forecast to eject into the Plains early Friday, reaching the Great Lakes by evening. As this occurs, a trailing surface trough/cold front will migrate southeast into the central and southern Plains. Both pre- and post-frontal winds are forecast to reach into the 15-25 mph range across a broad swath of the central CONUS. A dry return flow regime is expected across central TX/OK and into KS/MO ahead of the front, while an influx of dry post-frontal air will promote RH values in the teens across NE, KS, CO, and NM. ...Southern Plains into the mid-MS River Valley... The recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted any appreciable moisture well offshore with low 30 dewpoints noted along the TX Gulf coast as of 05 UTC. Moisture return through Friday is expected to be minimal, and guidance that typically over-mixes the boundary layer will likely better capture RH trends within the dry return flow regime. As such, the current forecast relies heavily on RAP/HRRR solutions that depict widespread 15-20 mph winds and 20-25% RH minimums ahead of the front, including into northeast AR and MO where active fires were observed on Wednesday. Ensemble guidance appears to support these solutions with 50-70% probabilities for sustained winds above 15 mph across this region. ...High Plains... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to be fairly widespread behind the front from the NE Panhandle southward into the southern High Plains. Downslope warming/drying should yield the driest conditions with RH values in the 15-25% range and widespread wind speed between 15-25 mph. Although continuous elevated wind/RH conditions are expected, the risk area is bifurcated across parts of eastern CO and KS where substantial rain/snow has fallen over the past 24 hours. Fuel trends will be monitored across these regions, and an expansion of the risk area(s) may be needed as snow melts and grasses dry over the next 48 hours. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest and the Midwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move across the central states on Friday, as another shortwave trough moves across the Pacific Northwest. Ahead of both of these features, instability will be very weak. However, mid-level moisture and large-scale ascent should be enough for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest and Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. on Friday and Friday night. ..Broyles.. 03/20/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CDT Thu Mar 20 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected again today across parts of the southern High Plains, albeit more spatially confined than previous days, as well as across portions of the Florida Peninsula. A strong surface low and an attendant cold front are expected to translate east across the upper Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic through the day. It its wake, surface ridge will build from the Gulf Coast into the Midwest with widespread dry conditions (15-35% RH) likely to the west of the ridge axis. ...High Plains... Across the Pacific Northwest, an approaching low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing along the High Plains. The resultant west/southwesterly downslope flow regime should foster sustained winds between 15-25 mph. Confidence in sustained 20-25 mph winds remains highest across northeast NM and into southeast CO and adjacent parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, but such winds are also possible further south into southwest TX and further north across southeast WY into the NE Panhandle. Afternoon RH minimums in the teens to low 20s, coupled with antecedent dry fuels - especially across NM and TX where precipitation has been minimal - should support the fire weather concern. Fire weather concerns are possible across parts of east-central CO where dry/downslope conditions are expected, but recent snowfall should limit fuel status. ...Florida... Dry conditions are expected to persist across much of central and southern FL ahead of the frontal passage later in the afternoon. Pre-frontal westerly winds are forecast to increase to near 15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph possible. Forecast high temperatures are expected to approach the 90th percentile for south FL in mid-March, which when coupled with mid-50s dewpoints, should result in RH values between 20-35% by peak heating. Despite some rainfall over the past 48 hours, recent fire activity indicates that fuels will support fire spread. Critical fire weather conditions appear most likely along the southeastern FL coast where conditions are expected to be warmest/driest, but may spread further inland and northward into central FL prior to the late-afternoon frontal passage. ...Louisiana Coast and lower MS River Valley... Northwesterly winds near 15 mph are expected through the morning and early afternoon hours in the immediate wake of the cold front across the lower MS River Valley and central Gulf coast. Winds are expected to diminish through peak heating as the surface ridge builds in from the west. Consequently, the temporal overlap of breezy winds and RH minimums is expected to be limited, though areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible for a couple of hours from the LA coast northeastward along the MS River, including eastern AR where notable fire activity was observed yesterday outside of the heavy rain swaths that occurred during the 3/14 to 3/15 period. ..Moore.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible today in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. Severe weather is not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong upper trough will move rapidly across the eastern states today, with primary midlevel speed max sweeping across the Gulf Coast states and nosing into the Carolinas during the afternoon. Cooling aloft with this system will be substantial as a band of strong meridional flow approaches the East Coast late in the day. At the surface, a trough will deepen slightly ahead of a cold front with strongest afternoon push from GA into the Carolinas where 850 mb winds will exceed 40 kt out of the west/southwest. While an elongated north-south band of precipitation is likely to accompany the cold front, instability is forecast to be quite weak. MUCAPE of 100-200 J/kg may develop near the front, perhaps effectively elevated as the front undercuts meager moisture return and lapse rates steepen aloft. A plume of steeper low-level lapse rates will accompany the dry slot from GA into the Carolinas, but forecast soundings indicate little severe potential due to limited moisture. As such, severe storms are not forecast, but locally gusty winds are expected with the band of showers and due to vertical mixing considerations. ..Jewell/Moore.. 03/20/2025 Read more

MD 0252 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...and a small portion of northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 200304Z - 200430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to gradually diminish across the WW area. DISCUSSION...Radar data continues to show a gradual decrease in convective intensity with storms moving across Indiana/WW 69 over the past couple of hours. This coincides with an associated, gradual decrease in buoyancy, with RAP-based objective analysis now showing mixed-layer CAPE below 500 J/kg across the WW area, and even less with eastward extent toward central Ohio. Expectations continue to be that storms will continue to gradually weaken, and thus risk for severe-caliber gusts waning. While local WW extension in area may be considered for a couple of counties in western Ohio, overall risk should remain minimal for the remainder of the evening. ..Goss.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38448486 38808507 40208407 40658308 40228286 38528398 38448486 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over Indiana, parts of Kentucky and into Tennessee. ...IN into western KY... A primary line of storms stretches from central IN into western KY and TN as of 01Z, with secondary line of storms along the IL/IN border in association with the cold front. Given the loss of heating and relatively narrow zone of instability, the primary risk of damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado should be greatest over the next 1-2 hours, and will then wane within the 03-06Z time frame. Even so, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out as far east as central OH and south into parts of MS and AL as the front pushes through tonight. For more in-depth information, see mesoscale discussions 249, 250, and 251. ..Jewell.. 03/20/2025 Read more

MD 0249 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Western and middle Tennessee into northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192334Z - 200130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected between 7-9 PM CDT across western Tennessee and northern to central Mississippi with a downstream risk for severe hail and damaging winds. The risk is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening cumulus along and just ahead of a diffuse dryline/Pacific front from western TN southward into MS. This trend is expected to continue as mid-level temperatures continue to cool with the eastward progression of the primary trough axis, resulting in improving 700-500 mb lapse rates that will be more favorable for sustained convection. This trend is already being observed further north across the lower OH River Valley, suggesting that thunderstorm development is becoming more likely for areas further south. Modest surface moisture (mid 50s dewpoints) will continue to limit overall buoyancy values (MLCAPE should be maximized around 500-750 J/kg), but wind fields over the region are supporting elongated hodographs that will promote organization of the more intense updrafts. Weak off-boundary storm motions/deep-layer shear vectors suggest that a combination of semi-discrete cells and clusters is likely later this evening as storms move into middle TN and northwest AL. Given the convective environment and trends in latest CAM guidance, a few of the more intense cells/clusters may pose a severe hail/wind threat through the late evening. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32909031 35998919 36458887 36538846 36628750 36588700 36448652 36178623 35758610 35048619 34208674 33358759 32638848 32468899 32458937 32478982 32549002 32679022 32909031 Read more

MD 0250 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 200048Z - 200215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken -- and gradually weakening -- band of pre-frontal storms moving eastward across central and northern Indiana. While more vigorous cells within this band persist farther south -- into portions of Tornado Watch 58 where slightly greater surface dewpoints (low to mid 50s) exist, the prior, limited tornado risk over central and northern Indiana has further diminished. While a brief spin-up is still possible, the predominant severe risk will remain locally damaging wind gusts. In the wake of the initial band, a second band of frontal convection near the Illinois/Indiana border will reach western fringes of WW 59 over the next hour or so -- which may bring an additional chance for wind gusts in excess of severe levels locally. Overall though, a gradual/nocturnal decrease in storm intensity within both of the aforementioned bands will continue over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 38928648 40288613 41368612 42058597 42198519 41468479 40198458 39008489 38728518 38928648 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MKL TO 15 WSW OWB TO 25 NNE EVV TO 45 SSE MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-125-143-147-173-175-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE SCOTT SPENCER WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC003-009-027-029-031-047-059-061-085-091-093-099-103-107-111- 123-141-149-163-177-183-185-213-219-221-223-227-200140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY HOPKINS JEFFERSON Read more

WW 58 TORNADO IL IN KY 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the watch area from late afternoon into this evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-031-033-035-039-041- 047-049-053-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-085-087-091- 093-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-131-135-137-139-141-145-149- 151-155-159-161-169-177-179-181-183-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLINTON DEARBORN DECATUR DE KALB DELAWARE ELKHART FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONROE MORGAN NOBLE OHIO PULASKI RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH ST. JOSEPH SHELBY STARKE STEUBEN SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM IN KY MI OH LM 192255Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana North Central Kentucky Southern Lower Michigan Western Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over eastern Illinois will track rapidly northeastward through the evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of South Bend IN to 60 miles east southeast of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...WW 58... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EVV TO 15 SW DNV TO 45 WNW VPZ. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-033-045-075-101-183-200140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD EDGAR IROQUOIS LAWRENCE VERMILION INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY NEWTON OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more