SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. A closed mid-level low will continue east-northeastward across the central Rockies into early next week, with breezy winds expected across the Plains. Behind this system, post-frontal northwesterly breezes will be possible across the Central/High plains. However, low-level moisture return and eventual precipitation will limit RH reductions and the overall fire-weather risk. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the end of the week before shortwave progression across the northern periphery brings a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern Plains. Confidence in widespread relative humidity reductions remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 19 21:31:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2149 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO
Mesoscale Discussion 2149 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Areas affected...parts of eastern New Mexico Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 191935Z - 192200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few severe storms are expected as convective coverage increases this afternoon and well into the evening. Sporadic large hail as well as a couple brief tornadoes will be possible. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture continues to increase across the region, east of the slow-moving upper low. A north-south oriented band of rain and storms has already formed near the 105.5 W meridian, with brief indications of small hail thus far. Continued heating will lead to further destabilization over the next few hours with upwards of 1500 J/kg MLCAPE developing with 40-50 kt deep-layer shear. In addition, low-level southeasterlies are enhancing low-level shear with 0-1 KM SRH values around 100 m2/s2, sufficient for a brief tornado. As such, the risk of at least isolated severe storms will increase this afternoon, and a watch may at least be considered as trends dictate. ..Jewell/Mosier.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF...ABQ...EPZ... LAT...LON 32690596 33830563 34700546 35160534 35470521 35880451 35900380 35640353 35150342 34160363 32680429 32380476 32230550 32290579 32500593 32690596 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas through this evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes. Widespread convection is ongoing in multiple meridional bands east of a broad upper cyclone over the Southwest. Broken cloud cover extends well north into parts of central CO and UT. This should continue to limit diurnal heating and low-level lapse rates across the region. As a result, the thunder area has been trimmed on the northern end where limited buoyancy and weakening ascent should limit thunderstorm potential. Farther south and east, an isolated severe risk will remain possible with deeper convection ahead of the stalled front. Partial clearing and continued low-level upslope flow will support scattered to numerous storms this afternoon and evening. With buoyancy around 1000 J/kg and 40-50 kt of effective shear, a few supercell structures capable of hail, damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. See MCD #2149 for more detailed information. ..Lyons.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...KS/OK/TX Panhandle... The closed upper low over the Southwest should evolve into an open wave by Monday as it ejects across the south-central High Plains and towards the Lower/Mid-MO Valley by early Tuesday. A belt of 45-60 kt 500-mb southwesterlies should become prevalent within the southeast quadrant of the shortwave trough, yielding hodograph elongation and a conditionally favorable supercell wind profile. Consensus of 12Z guidance suggests that a swath of elevated convection, driven by low-level warm theta-e advection should be ongoing along the leading edge of greater moisture emanating north from west TX. The dry boundary layer downstream, mainly along and east of the I-35 corridor in KS/OK, infers that diurnal destabilization will remain spatially confined in the wake of the morning activity. Small to marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts might occur with the early-day convection as the belt of strong mid-level flow increases from the TX Panhandle into western/central KS. Bulk of guidance suggests that a separate round of convective development should accompany the mid-level wave in the western KS vicinity. How extensive this development may occur into the northern periphery of the warm-moist sector is uncertain, given the likely limited temporal window for appreciable boundary-layer heating. Confidence is also low in the degree of southward development along the arcing dryline into the eastern TX Panhandle. But given the wind profile for potential supercells, especially from southwest/south-central KS southward, a low-probability severe risk appears warranted. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 19 17:50:06 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST NM... ...SUMMARY... A couple tornadoes, scattered large hail, and isolated severe gusts are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday across eastern New Mexico. ...Southern High Plains... Overall setup appears somewhat similar to D1 with potential for a few to several supercells, shifted northward as the AZ upper low gradually accelerates northeastward towards the CO Rockies. Convection is expected to be ongoing across northeast NM with extensive morning cloudiness to its south within a persistent low-level warm conveyor. This will slow boundary-layer heating across eastern NM, with more moderate insolation likely confined to the TX Trans-Pecos. But with mid to upper 50s surface dew points, even limited heating should result in a plume of MLCAPE from 750-1500 J/kg by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms should develop across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, with more isolated activity where forcing for ascent weakens with south-southeast extent into southeast NM. 40-45 kt effective bulk shear and elongation to the hodograph will favor potential for several cells with mid-level rotation. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but will increase after 00Z and should be sufficient for a risk of a couple tornadic supercells. Large hail should be the primary overall hazard, before storms congeal into a slow-moving cluster with an embedded strong to localized severe wind threat. Storm intensity should wane by late evening. ..Grams.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191700Z - 201200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/19/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this afternoon and evening. ...NM into Far West TX... Morning satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone centered over AZ, with at least one embedded vorticity maximum rotating through its base. Expectation is for this cyclone to remain largely in place throughout the period, with the amplified upper ridging downstream persisting and the stronger westerlies remaining displaced north along the international border. Strong mid-level flow rotates cyclonically around this upper low, with enhanced mid-level southerly flow expected to continue across NM throughout the day. The southeasterly low-level flow currently ongoing across the southern High Plains/southern Plains is expected to strengthen as the gradient between the large eastern CONUS high and the lower surface pressure in the vicinity of the AZ upper cyclone tightens. This will contribute to both low-level moisture advection and strengthening deep-layer vertical shear across the southern High Plains today. Thunderstorms are already ongoing from far eastern AZ into western NM, to the west of the stationary boundary that extends from far south-central NM/ELP vicinity into northeast NM. The deep-layer flow across much of this region predominantly southerly, and with the front-parallel orientation expected to keep these storms west of the front until later this afternoon. Some heating is still possible west of the boundary, which could result in enough buoyancy for a few strong to isolated severe storms capable of damaging gusts and hail. During the afternoon and evening, the potential for more warm-sector is expected to increase, as ascent attendant to a vorticity maximum rotating through the base of the upper low spreads across the diurnally destabilized airmass over eastern NM. The combination of low-level moisture advection and modest diurnal heating will result in moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE expected to maximize around 1000-1500 J/kg across east-central/southeast NM. A few discrete storms appear possible across southeast/south-central NM from around 20Z through 00Z or so. Vertical shear supports supercells and all severe hazards are possible with these storms, including a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage should increase along the front as well as it begins to slowly move eastward. A more linear mode is anticipated with this activity, but a few stronger gusts and isolated hail are still possible within this band. ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat are possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will become less so in the northern stream through the period, as nearly zonal flow takes shape across the northern international border region, and synoptic ridging deamplifies over the eastern CONUS. A compact cyclone -- initially centered over central AZ -- will remain near its present position through the period, having become cut off temporarily from the prevailing westerlies. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a decelerating cold to quasistationary front from a weak low over northeastern MN to another near LXN, then southwestward over northeastern KS, southeastern CO and northeastern NM near LVS, merging with a slow- moving Pacific front related more directly to the AZ cyclone. That front extended south southwestward over the Tularosa Valley to between LRU-ELP, and should move little today (with just mesobeta- scale baroclinic shifts from precip/outflow). ...Eastern NM, west TX... Along and east of the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into evening, and congeal with time into at least a loosely contiguous band. This activity should be oriented strongly parallel to the southerly to south-southwest flow characterizing the cyclone's peripheral eastern semicircle. A few supercells are possible in the transitional time between development and quasi-linear evolution of that activity, as well as in the warm sector farther east. Some of the convective lift -- then underway from diurnal heating of a weakly capped, EML-deprived air mass -- will be aided by the upslope component of southeasterly boundary-layer flow into higher terrain across this region. The same flow also will contribute to substantial veering with height, yielding favorable deep shear (effective-shear magnitudes 35-40 kt, locally larger) for supercells in any relatively sustained/discrete convection. Hodographs should reach their largest sizes for areas with surface- based effective-inflow parcels in the 23-03Z time frame, suggesting a window of relatively maximized local tornado opportunity for any supercells that can access what should be a much higher-theta-e inflow airmass than the previous day. Surface dewpoints in the 50s F should remain common in the warm sector through the diurnal heating cycle, and low 60s already are seen in mesonet data not far upstream, over the Pecos Valley of west TX. At elevations mainly above 4000 ft, the resulting boundary-layer thermodynamic profile (including lower LCL), and slightly cooler air aloft, should steepen previously meager lapse rates enough to permit a corridor of 1000- 1500 J/kg preconvective MLCAPE. A conditional significant-hail threat may develop as well, but given the lack of greater lapse rates typically found with such hail in this area, will refrain from an unconditional sig/hatched line at this time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 10/19/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough is expected to move into the Midwest before phasing with a broader upper-level trough in the Great Lakes region by the middle of next week. Access to Gulf moisture will become more restricted as this feature moves eastward. Across parts of the West and Plains, an upper-level ridge will develop and shift east through the remainder of the week into the weekend. The upper-level pattern becomes less certain during the weekend, but at least a brief period of quasi-zonal flow aloft is currently expected. With another cold-frontal intrusion into the Gulf expected to occur late this week, moisture availability/quality for any shortwave troughs moving through the westerlies is highly uncertain. Severe weather potential continues to appear low through next weekend. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe weather appears low on Monday. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will be ejecting into the southern High Plains late Sunday/early Monday. This trough will move into the central Plains by early afternoon. Some precipitation can be expected early Monday in association with this trough. A Pacific front will continue eastward into the central/southern Plains. With dry air remaining east of the front, the band of moisture ahead of the front is expected to become increasingly narrow with time. With the stronger forcing for ascent in Kansas, a few thunderstorms are possible along the surface front in south-central Kansas. Given the limited moisture, buoyancy will also be limited as will the extent of the warm sector. There could be an isolated stronger storm or two, but severe coverage appears too limited and uncertain for unconditional probabilities at this time. Dewpoints in low 60s F are possible in western Oklahoma. However, convergence along the front appears weak and initiation is far from certain. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for Sunday across the country. The upper low currently centered over AZ is forecast to continue weakening as it gradually shifts east towards the High Plains. As this occurs, weak surface pressure falls along the High Plains juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley will promote breezy conditions from the TX Panhandle into western NE. While winds will approach elevated thresholds, a combination of recent rainfall and modest moisture return will limit fire weather potential. Weak winds are expected to limit fire weather concerns elsewhere across the country. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this morning through early afternoon across parts of coastal southern California. 05 UTC surface observations show a handful of stations within the higher terrain of the southern CA coast maintaining sustained 15-20 mph winds with 5-15% RH. These conditions are expected to persist through early afternoon, but will become increasingly localized. This will occur as regional gradient winds gradually abate through the day with the occlusion of the synoptic low over central AZ. However, latest ensemble guidance continues to suggest that a pocket of more persistent elevated conditions (characterized by 5-10% RH with 15-20 mph winds) will linger for several hours within the lee of the San Gabriel mountains. Further north through the Sacramento Valley, localized elevated conditions are expected this afternoon - particularly across the northwestern Valley where breezy northerly down-valley winds will support pockets of 15-20 mph with RH minimums in the teens. However, with the weakening of the regional pressure gradient, these conditions should remain fairly localized. ..Moore.. 10/19/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across eastern New Mexico on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low in the Four Corners region will initially be moving slowly eastward through the Southwest on Sunday. This feature will trend more progressive towards Sunday evening into Monday morning as it ejects into the parts of the central/southern High Plains. On the western periphery of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley anticyclone, modest surface moisture will be maintained as far north as the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Eastern New Mexico... Early precipitation/cloud cover is probable in the region, particularly across northeastern New Mexico. However, some mid-level dry air is expected to help promote some surface heating in parts of east-central into southeastern New Mexico during the afternoon. Mid-level ascent will not be overly strong, especially with southern extent, but forcing will increase during the evening/overnight. Terrain will likely be the main focus for initiation until this occurs. Mid/upper 50s F dewpoints are most probable, though low 60s F are not out of the question in southeastern New Mexico. MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg is possible where the strongest heating occurs. Long hodographs and 35-40 kts of effective shear will favor potential for supercells capable of large hail and isolated severe gusts. Low-level shear will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for a risk of a tornado with the most organized supercells--a risk that will be maximized between 00-01Z. As forcing for ascent increases in northeast New Mexico, some linear structures may develop during mid/late evening. These storms could produce occasional, marginally severe hail and perhaps strong winds. The overall threat should be more marginal given limited buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 10/19/2024 Read more