Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... There appears much better consensus between the ECENS/ECMWF and GEFS/GFS concerning the evolution of the mid/upper flow late this week into early next week. Within larger-scale mid-level troughing developing inland of the Pacific coast by mid week, one embedded short wave impulse progressing northeast of the Canadian Rockies at the outset of the period is forecast to pivot across the Canadian Prairies into the higher latitudes of interior Canada, accompanied by the consolidating primary surface cyclone. It now appears probable that the significant trailing short wave perturbation will undergo considerable amplification and split off the main belt of westerlies, while digging inland of the northern Pacific coast. It appears that this will include the evolution of a deepening mid-level low near/east of the Sierra Nevada into the Southwest, where it may linger into next weekend as low-amplitude ridging shifts inland within the westerlies across the Canadian Rockies/Prairies and adjacent international border vicinity. As westerly mean flow then strengthens downstream of digging large-scale troughing off the Pacific coast late this weekend into early next week, it appears that the low will transition to an open wave and accelerate across the Rockies through the central Great Plains, around the northern periphery of building ridging in the subtropical latitudes. Preceding the emergence of the perturbation from the Southwest, the models continue to indicate that the development of a moistening southerly return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will be impeded by the maintenance of surface ridging across much of the eastern U.S. through northwestern Gulf coast vicinity. While some strong thunderstorm development might not be entirely out of the question, particularly Friday with some modest initial moistening near lingering relatively deep surface troughing across the central high plains, the risk for severe weather appears generally low through this period. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... It appears that thunderstorm development will remain limited, with negligible risk for severe weather across the U.S. Wednesday through Wednesday night. ...Discussion... Models indicate that large-scale mid-level troughing will continue to develop inland of the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West, Rockies and northern Great Plains during this period. Within this regime, one short wave impulse emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to progress inland of the British Columbia coast and across the Canadian Rockies by late Wednesday night, while a trailing perturbation digs into the northern Pacific coast. A remnant perturbation already inland to the southwest of the Four Corners region appears likely to accelerate northeastward into and across the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies, as it becomes absorbed within the evolving larger-scale cyclonic flow. In response to the upstream developments, and the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level ridge centered over the subtropical western Atlantic, initially amplified mid-level troughing near the Atlantic Seaboard will tend to remain progressive, but undergo considerable deformation near and offshore of the coast through early Thursday. One remnant embedded perturbation may support a developing surface wave along an associated frontal zone well offshore of the Atlantic Seaboard. While this migrates east-northeastward through the Atlantic, the trailing front may linger near or just south of the Florida Keys, while stalling/weakening across the south central Gulf of Mexico into lower Texas coast/Rio Grande vicinity. As the evolving upper pattern supports deepening surface troughing to the east of the Canadian/northern U.S. Rockies, the center of initially expansive cold surface ridging to the east of the Rockies is forecast to shift from the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley to the lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys vicinity. However, the ridge likely will maintain a considerable stabilizing influence across much of the Gulf Coast region and northwestern Gulf of Mexico. Inland of the lower Rio Grande Valley, low-level moistening is forecast to remain limited, and generally elevated to the east of the higher terrain of southwest Texas into New Mexico. Thus, despite the potential focus and forcing near the deepening surface troughing, from eastern Colorado/western Kansas through eastern Montana and the western Dakotas by late Wednesday night, the risk for thunderstorm development (and potential for severe weather) appears negligible. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong and sharp mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest on Tuesday. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However, there remains significant uncertainty whether these stronger winds will overlap lower relative humidity. Therefore, no Elevated areas are warranted at this time. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A weak lee cyclone will develop in the Texas Panhandle vicinity late this afternoon with a secondary surface low in southwest Arizona. Some winds of 10 to 15 mph are possible in both regions with 15 to 20 percent humidity. Some locally elevated conditions are possible. However, fuels are also not critically dry in these areas. Therefore, no Elevated fire weather area is warranted. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1142 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across much of the nation Tuesday through Tuesday night. ...Discussion... Latest model output is not much different from prior runs for this period. Large-scale mid-level troughing appears likely to continue to gradually amplify across the eastern U.S., as a significant embedded short wave perturbation digs southeast of the lower Missouri and Ohio Valleys. Peak amplitude may be reached along a positively tilted axis near the Atlantic Seaboard around or after 12Z Wednesday. In association with this regime, expanding cold surface ridging is forecast to encompass much of the interior U.S. into northern Gulf of Mexico and south Atlantic seaboard, with its center shifting from the northern Great Plains Red River Valley through the central Great Plains/lower Missouri Valley by late Tuesday night, in the wake of the short wave. To the west, a lead short wave impulse, within larger scale troughing on the leading edge of a somewhat more progressive regime emerging from the mid-latitude Pacific, may reach the British Columbia coast and Pacific Northwest vicinity by late Tuesday night. With its approach, modest surface cyclogenesis may commence to the immediate lee of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies. Deep-layered moisture, characterized by high precipitable water in excess of 2 inches, is forecast to generally remain confined to portions of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near/south of the Florida Keys Tuesday through Tuesday night. While some elevated moisture return is possible across the northwestern Gulf coast into parts of the southern Great Plains, generally stable conditions are expected to prevail across much of the nation to the east of the Rockies. One possible exception may persist beneath the mid-level cold core (including 500 mb temperatures below -30C) shifting southeast of the upper Great Lakes region into the Ohio Valley during the day. Beneath this regime, boundary-layer warming may contribute to diurnal convective development which might become capable of producing occasional lightning. While generally stable conditions persist across much of the West, modest moistening, beneath a remnant pocket of relatively cool air aloft and large-scale ascent across the Four Corners region, might also support scattered weak thunderstorm activity Tuesday afternoon and evening. ..Kerr.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Mon Oct 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are anticipated today. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery this morning across the southern Great Lakes will strengthen as it accelerates toward the Northeast while the associated mid-level trough becomes negatively tilted. This will likely result in the surface low deepening as it moves up the northeast coast. Some elevated thunderstorms may develop along and behind the surface front/low as it moves northeast across eastern Maine and Cape Cod. Instability should be limited and thus, the severe weather threat should be minimal. Continued cold air advection across the Great Lakes will result in some lake effect convection. Some of this convection may deepen enough to produce lightning, especially during the evening. A few thunderstorms are possible in Utah, northern New Mexico, and western Colorado as an upper-low slowly drifts southeast today. Very weak instability should limit any severe weather potential with this activity. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO PARTS OF EASTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed along a cold front from central Tennessee to central Pennsylvania. Most of these storms are clearly sub-severe, but a few stronger cells with MESH cores approaching 1 inch and weak rotating updrafts have been apparent over the last hour. The 00Z BNA RAOB showed and environment which supports some severe convection (1200 J/kg MLCAPE and 34 knots of effective shear). However, the boundary layer has cooled ahead of these storms and it will continue to cool through the evening while storms also move east of the best low-level moisture. Therefore, some threat for isolated severe storms may remain for the next 1 to 2 hours, but the overall threat should lessen within the next few hours as the boundary layer continues to cool and stabilize. ..Bentley.. 10/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0429 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z ...Synopsis... A deep upper trough is expected to continue digging over the eastern CONUS D3/Tuesday. Another significant surge of colder air will accompany this feature, with a cold front making it as far south as the Gulf of Mexico by D4/Wednesday morning. The pressure gradient across KS/OK/TX on the fringe of this air mass Tuesday will support breezy northeast winds (similar to but stronger than today/Sunday). Farther west by mid week, a Pacific upper trough will move onshore as ridging shifts eastward over the Great Plains. Precipitation chances associated with this feature, including some lightning, are anticipated from the Pacific Northwest into the Intermountain West D4/Wed-D5/Thur. A closed low is eventually expected over the Southwest by late this week into the weekend, while ridging replaces the trough over the eastern CONUS. ...D3/Tuesday Central and Southern Plains... Breezy northerly post-frontal winds will progress southwestward throughout the day from northern/central KS into northwestern TX, and portions of the eastern/southeastern TX panhandle. Although the overall relative humidity should remain just above critical thresholds, fuels remain highly receptive across most of this region. In addition, the latest model trends suggest higher wind speeds persisting across this region. As a result, a Critical 40-percent area has been introduced that covers most of KS and OK. ...D4/Wednesday Central and Southern Plains, and Great Basin... Increasing south winds will quickly return to most of the Plains as the upper trough begins to approach from the west. Confidence continues to increase with regards to relative humidity dropping to near or just above critical thresholds during the afternoon from western OK northward into northeastern WY and SD. If trends suggest even lower RH impacting this region, probabilities may need to be increased in subsequent forecasts. This may especially be true across portions of NE and southern SD, where breezy sustained winds should continue well into the evening hours. Farther west across portions of eastern NV and western UT, south-southwesterly sustained surface winds are expected to increase under the base of the mid-level trough. Fuels are not overly receptive here, but are still unseasonably dry. Mixing throughout the day should also result in at least near-critical relative humidity being reached. ...D5/Thursday Great Plains and portions of the Midwest... Breezy south winds will persist across this region preceding the upper trough. Relative humidity by this time remains somewhat questionable. However, considering D4/Wednesday's near critical to critical environment, a continued lack of rainfall/receptive fuels, and confidence in wind speeds reaching critical thresholds; a 40-percent Critical area has also been introduced here. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 13 21:01:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2146 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL PA
Mesoscale Discussion 2146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of western/central PA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 132058Z - 132300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms are possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Despite relatively limited low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the mid 50s F), modest diurnal heating has resulted in some destabilization this afternoon across parts of western/central PA, to the south of a differential heating zone/effective warm front across northern PA. Some deepening cumulus has been noted from extreme eastern OH into western PA, in the vicinity of a weak surface trough/confluence zone. A few developing showers in this region may mature into thunderstorms, as they move eastward and downstream MLCAPE increases to near 500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow is rather strong across the region, with 30-50 kt in the 850-700 mb layer, and effective shear of 40-50 kt. Despite the limited instability, this kinematic environment could support some storm organization if convection deepens, especially with any storms in the vicinity of the differential heating zone. Locally gusty/damaging winds and small hail could accompany any stronger cells/clusters within this regime. ..Dean/Hart.. 10/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CTP...PBZ... LAT...LON 41317950 41617849 41607750 41407700 41237700 40987721 40627754 40477787 40347955 40677959 41317950 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR GRAPHICS ...SUMMARY... A couple of thunderstorms are possible over the Four Corners and parts of the Ohio Valley toward the Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted mid-level trough will progress across the eastern U.S., with surface high pressure sweeping across the Plains toward the Gulf and East Coasts on Tuesday. A weakening mid-level cut-off low will continue to meander over the Four Corners region. Cool surface conditions and static stability will become established over much of the CONUS, limiting thunderstorm development over most locales. However, a couple of thunderstorms may occur over portions of the OH Valley toward the southern Great Lakes, as cooler temperatures aloft may encourage steep low to mid-level lapse rates by afternoon. Similarly, cooler mid-level temperatures and orographic lift near the mid-level cut-off low over the Four Corners may support a few lightning flashes as well. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly this evening, from Pennsylvania southward to the Tennessee Valley. Isolated wind damage should be the main threat. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track with only minor adjustments made. The 5% wind/Marginal risk area was expanded slightly across portions of central to northeast PA where morning cloud cover has cleared and allowed for stronger daytime heating/destabilization (denoted by temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s). These observations appear to be well assimilated into recent HRRR/RRFS runs, which have trended towards a slightly stronger UH/convective signal compared to early-morning solutions. The risk lines have been adjusted to account for these recent trends. ..Moore.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Central/Southern Appalachians into the Tennessee Valley... Water vapor loop shows a fast-moving and deepening shortwave trough over WI. This feature will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes region through the day, with fast flow aloft extending eastward across the central Appalachians. A surface low currently over northern OH will track eastward across PA along a warm front, while an associated cold front sweeps southeastward across OH/WV/KY/TN. Low-level moisture is quite limited ahead of this system, which will limit coverage and overall intensity of convection. However, over half of morning CAM solutions suggest thunderstorm development along the front this afternoon and evening, where winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally gusty/damaging winds. The MRGL risk area has been extended northeastward into parts of central/northeast PA, ahead of the surface low and along the warm front. CAPE will be very weak in this area, but forecast soundings and some CAM guidance suggest the potential for 1 or 2 rotating storms capable of gusty wind or perhaps a brief spin-up around peak heating. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20Z Update... Localized elevated fire weather conditions are still expected across far southern AZ Monday afternoon. However, these confined conditions will overlap mostly desert landscape (just west of the desert grasslands), precluding the need for an Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 10/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1224 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions are expected across far southern Arizona and portions of eastern New Mexico. However, current fuels guidance does not suggest significant vulnerability to wildfire ignition and spread at this time, precluding highlights. Some forecast guidance, mainly the GFS, suggest dry/windy southerly flow across western Texas on Monday, but remains an outlier relative to other models. Given the uncertainty and lack of Elevated/Critical conditions over receptive fuels, no fire-weather highlights are forecast. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Four Corners and the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify across the eastern half of the CONUS as an embedded mid-level impulse pivots around the trough over the MS Valley tomorrow (Monday). A mid-level cut-off low will also meander over the Four Corners region. As the aforementioned mid-level impulse overspreads the Great Lakes, cooler temperatures aloft atop warm waters will support near-dry adiabatic lapse rates, which may support deep-enough convection to foster a few lightning flashes (especially over water). Cooler temperatures aloft will also support enough buoyancy (albeit scant) over the higher terrain of the Four Corners region, with isolated lightning flashes possible when also considering orographic lift. ..Squitieri.. 10/13/2024 Read more