SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas Monday. Severe storms are unlikely. ...Synopsis... Split mid-level flow is forecast over the CONUS Monday. An upper low moving over the northern Gulf Coast and offshore will be the primary feature of interest for convection, as broad-scale ridging persists over the central US. Beneath the upper low, a surface cyclone is forecast to steadily intensify as it moves offshore over southern South Carolina early in the day. Trailing the low, a cold front will move eastward over the lower FL Peninsula. ...Coastal Carolinas... As the upper trough moves offshore, mid-level ascent will overspread the strong coastal front over the eastern Carolinas. In response, the initially broad surface low will deepen as it moves into the Atlantic. Scattered convection is likely to be ongoing through the morning within a broader area of precipitation, and should persist through much of the day, as isentropic ascent intensifies ahead of the deepening coastal low. Weak elevated buoyancy and moderate to strong mid-level flow could support a few stronger storms capable of an isolated damaging gust or hail. However, the surface-based warm sector should remain well offshore, keeping the probability for severe storms low. ...Florida Peninsula... Additional scattered storms are likely to be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front over parts of the FL Peninsula early Monday. The front is forecast to move quickly eastward, as moderately strong deep-layer flow overspreads a narrow warm sector. The weakening upper low moving offshore will favor warm midlevel temperatures, resulting in only modest mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy. Given the relatively poor timing with the diurnal cycle, limited buoyancy and modest front-parallel shear, severe potential is low. However, a brief strong storm or two could produce damaging gusts across the eastern FL coast. Here, more diurnal heating is possible before the front moves offshore by early afternoon. ..Lyons.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091700Z - 101200Z The primary change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area over portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Here, the latest surface observations show RH dropping into the lower/middle 30-percent range (and upper 20 percent over parts of southern NJ) amid increasingly breezy/gusty west-southwesterly surface winds. Given several days of fuels drying, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected through this afternoon. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/09/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025/ ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091630Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from parts of northern/central Florida into southern Alabama/Georgia. ...Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will continue to move eastward over the lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast States through tonight. A related weak surface low near the mouth of the MS River late this morning will likewise develop eastward along/near the AL/FL Gulf Coast, with a stalled front extending eastward from this low over northern FL. Multiple small thunderstorms and clusters are ongoing across the FL Panhandle and northern FL. Most of this activity is occurring along/north of the convectively reinforced boundary. While strong deep-layer shear will conditionally support supercells, this convection is generally expected to remain elevated, with mainly a marginal severe hail threat given modestly steepened mid-lapse rates and weak but sufficient MUCAPE. An isolated hail risk may also exist with convection well north of the surface boundary into parts of southern MS/AL. The Marginal Risk for hail has been expanded a little westward and northward in AL/GA to account for a couple supercells that may develop later this afternoon. Additional thunderstorm clusters may also form/consolidate along/south of the front in north/central FL through tonight. While lapse rates aloft will remain more modest with southward extent, gradually increasing low-level moisture and modest daytime heating should allow for modest destabilization through the late afternoon. Isolated strong to damaging winds may occur with any surface-based thunderstorms, and a brief tornado also appears possible through tonight as low-level southwesterly flow gradually strengthens with the approach of the upper trough. Overall, severe potential across the Southeast should tend to remain fairly isolated through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091300Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... Morning surface analysis places a low near the mouth of the MS River and a maritime front draped east over the continental shelf waters south of the FL Panhandle. A lead mid-level shortwave trough, evident in early morning water-vapor imagery, is moving east along the central Gulf Coast. Farther upstream over AR-OK-TX, a mid-level low and associated positive-tilt trough are forecast to move east-southeastward into southern AL and the northern Gulf of America. Episodic scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast in the vicinity or north of the west-east oriented frontal zone. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability (200-800 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong deep-layer shear (45-55 kt effective shear) are forecast. A mix of a few strong to occasionally severe thunderstorms, in the form of weak supercell structures and organized linear bands, will be capable of isolated 55-70 mph gusts, perhaps a risk for a brief tornado, and marginally severe hail (up to 1.25 inches in diameter). A gradual waning of the severe risk is forecast by late evening. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/09/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0335 AM CDT Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Wed - ArkLaTex vicinity... A shortwave upper trough is forecast to develop east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico to the Lower MS/TN Valley vicinity on Wednesday. Forecast guidance generally keep the stronger midlevel jet streak over central/southern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to remain modest, but some increase in southerly low-level flow across the western Gulf with transport mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints into the ArkLaTex and Ozark Plateau region. Cooling aloft will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and this will contribute to modest elevated instability. Forecast soundings suggest boundary layer inhibition will likely subdue potential for surface-based convection. Nevertheless, some potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of producing hail appears possible. Overall confidence in unconditional 15 percent probabilities is too low to delineate any severe area at this time, but some low-end probabilities may become necessary in subsequent outlooks. ...Day 6/Fri - Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity... A powerful upper cyclone and attendant trough is expected to develop east across the Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense southwesterly jet (100+ kt at 500 mb) is expected to be oriented from the southern Plains to the Mid-MS Valley by Friday evening. Meanwhile, a rapidly intensifying surface cyclone will shift northeast from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest vicinity through the period. Strong southerly low-level flow ahead of this low and an attendant eastward-advancing cold front will support rapid northward transport of Gulf moisture. While details regarding quality of northward moisture transport remain, this overall pattern will be very favorable for a regional severe weather episode from late Friday afternoon into early Day 6/Sat morning. Overall, cross-model consistency has improved compared to the past couple of days, and guidance generally appears to be converging on similar solutions. When compared with the operational ECMWF, the operational GFS remains a bit further north with the placement of the low-level and upper-level cyclones, as well as northward extent of better moisture return. However, the GEFS and EPS ensemble means are quite similar. While this indicates there is still a moderate degree of spread in the north and east extent of severe potential, the envelop is narrowing, and a broad area favorable for an all-hazards severe episode is expected on Friday/Friday night, centered on the Mid to Lower MS Valley vicinity. This trends is also aligned with SPC and NSSL experimental machine learning guidance. Given uncertainties still exist regarding timing and location of key features, as well as with northward extent of deeper moisture return, this area is likely to change/shift some over the coming days as details become better resolved (and higher probabilities will likely become necessary as well). ...Day 7/Sat - Southeast vicinity... While the upper cyclone from Day 6/Fri will lift northeast over the Upper Great Lakes into Canada on Saturday, the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the southern Plains will eject east over the Southeast states. Convection will likely already be occurring ahead of the cold front, and will have access to deeper Gulf moisture downstream across MS/AL. The north and east extent of severe potential is uncertain as the evolution of the system on Friday will impact downstream potential. Nevertheless, the overall pattern will be favorable for a continuation of severe potential into Saturday given strong vertical shear overlapping a seasonally moist and at least modestly unstable airmass. ...Day 8/Sun - Mid-Atlantic vicinity... An upper trough will continue to shift east across the eastern U.S. on Sunday. While strong deep-layer flow will overspread the region in conjunction with a moist boundary-layer ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, it is uncertain how much destabilization will be able to occur. Trends will be monitored for possible severe probabilities in the coming days, but current predictability is low. Read more

MD 0158 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN MS/AL INTO THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0158 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Areas affected...parts of southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 090759Z - 091030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible overnight. DISCUSSION...Scattered storms are ongoing early this morning from southern MS/AL into the FL Panhandle, within a modest low-level warm advection regime, and immediately in advance of a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across the lower MS Valley. This convection is generally focused north of a front extending from coastal southeast LA to just offshore of southern MS/AL and the FL Panhandle. The richest low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the low 70s F) is confined to areas near/south of this front, with mid 60s F dewpoints extending inland immediately north of the front. Ongoing convection is likely somewhat elevated, but MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and strong effective shear are providing a favorable environment for at least transient storm organization. The strongest cells overnight will be capable of producing small to marginally severe hail, especially across western portions of the MCD area where somewhat stronger instability is in place. Guidance suggests some increase in low-level flow (which is currently rather weak) is possible later this morning, which could aid in the development of localized strong/damaging gusts with time. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29888882 30428887 30708894 30948884 31198830 31068630 30818500 30598422 30478372 30128342 29708339 29548357 29458417 29458486 29728574 29888638 29868705 29848784 29888839 29888882 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...Synopsis... Dry and windy conditions will be prevalent across much of the Great Plains on Monday, with some areas approaching or exceeding Critical meteorological conditions. However, recent wetting rainfall and poorly receptive fuels will be limiting factors across most of the areas discussed in the following sections, leaving only Elevated highlights in the forecast. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... At least some wildfire conditions are forecast for portions of the Dakotas on Monday, where winds antecedent to a southward moving cold front will reach 20-25 MPH with relative humidity around 15-20%. Current ERC fuels guidance suggest fuel receptiveness is poor, but given the lack of rainfall in the last week and the warm/dry conditions, fine fuels could be receptive enough for at least some wildfire danger. The post-frontal airmass will have much higher winds of 30-35 MPH, but also much higher relative humidity values. Given the limiting factors, only Elevated highlights have been introduced at this time. ...Western Nebraska... Over Western Nebraska, meteorological conditions could exceed Critical criteria, with winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values between 10-15%. However, over the last week, the same regions have seen anywhere from 0.5-1.0 inches of rain, with some areas central and northern Nebraska currently having snow coverage. ERC fuel percentiles are also very low/poor, precluding any highlights at this time. ...South-Central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles... Meteorological conditions supportive of Elevated fire-weather criteria are forecast for central and southern Kansas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. However, recent precipitation will limit the overall receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... A few areas of Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected today, though a few factors in each area are keeping the overall fire-danger threat limited. ...Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... As a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast and consequently a cold front moves offshore, winds of 15-20 MPH are expected across far south-central Texas during the afternoon and early evening. High-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values on the higher side of 25-30%, but given generally receptive fuels and a lack of recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been maintained. ...Northern South Dakota into Southern North Dakota... West-southwesterly surface winds beneath a mid-level ridge will result in some warming and drying across portions of the Northern Great Plains, particularly north-central South Dakota into southern North Dakota. Relative humidity values are expected to be within the range of 15-20%, and although current ERC fuels guidance suggests fuels are not overly receptive to wildfire spread, the region has generally been absent of rainfall and fine fuels should be sufficiently cured for at least some wildfire threat. Given the uncertainty with the fuels, only Elevated highlights have been maintained at this time. ...Mid Atlantic... High-resolution ensemble guidance suggests some low-end probabilities of Elevated conditions across portions of southeastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, northeastern Maryland, and Delaware. Winds of 15-20 MPH are consistent across the HREF ensemble, but there are only a few members with relative humidity values below 30%. Pending future forecast guidance and local fuels information, introduction of Elevated highlights may be warranted in the next update. ..Halbert.. 03/09/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CST Sun Mar 09 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Generally low-amplitude westerly mid/upper flow will develop over the Plains and Southeast on Tuesday ahead of an upper shortwave trough moving across the Southwest to southern Rockies. At the surface, a prior cold frontal passage deep into the Gulf and high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will result in a dry airmass persisting for much of the period. Southerly low-level flow will increase across the western Gulf into the southern Plains late in the forecast period, allowing for some very modest northward transport of shallow Gulf moisture into south/coastal TX. However, thunderstorms are not expected in this warm advection regime as considerable dry air will remain in mid and upper levels through early Wednesday morning. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1152 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and parts of the Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low over AL Monday morning will shift east, moving offshore over the Gulf Stream by evening. At the surface, a low near the GA coast will deepen as it shifts northeast over the Atlantic, and a trailing cold front will develop southward across the FL Peninsula. Isolated thunderstorms may be ongoing near the cold front Monday morning and continue sporadically into the afternoon with southward extent. Deep-layer flow will be moderately strong, but mostly parallel to the cold front. Meanwhile, warm midlevel temperatures across FL will result in modest midlevel lapse rates, limiting instability (generally less than 750 J/kg MLCAPE). This will largely limit severe potential, though a brief strong storm or two could produce gusty winds. Further north, isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Carolinas closer to the surface and upper low. Cold temperatures aloft will result in steep midlevel lapse rates and MUCAPE around 200-400 J/kg. Severe storms are not expected but a couple instances of small hail will be possible with mainly elevated convection through the afternoon. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today from parts of the northern Florida into far southeast Alabama and southern Georgia. ...Far Southeast Alabama/Southern Georgia/Northern Florida... At mid-levels, a low will move eastward across the Ark-La-Tex today, as a shortwave ridge ahead of the system moves through the Southeast. At the surface, a low will move eastward across the northern Gulf. To the east of the low, a slow moving cold front will move from southern Georgia into northern Florida. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the front today. Surface-based development should be confined to areas near and to the south of the front, where weak instability and strong deep-layer shear is forecast. The environment should support semi-organized line segments capable of producing isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado will also be possible. To the north of the front, the storms will be elevated and could produce isolated severe hail. The severe threat may persist across parts of northern Florida into the evening. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/09/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 090100Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SABINE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible tonight from parts of the southeast Texas eastward into the Gulf Coast states. ...Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast Vicinity... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow from southwest Texas into the Ark-La-Tex. An 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet is analyzed by the RAP over central Texas. A cluster of storms has developed near the exit region of this feature in southeast Texas. The storms are located just ahead of a cold front, along inverted trough in the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints are mostly in the 65 to 70 F range. A small pocket of moderate instability, with MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range, is analyzed by the RAP in the vicinity of Houston. The ongoing storms are located along the northern edge of this stronger instability. The WSR-88D VWP near Houston has 0-6 km shear around 70 knots. The instability and shear will be sufficient for a severe threat this evening. The storms should eventually affect parts of the lower Mississippi Valley later this evening into the overnight. Further to the east, a small area of thunderstorms has developed near the southeastern most point of Louisiana, with other storms located eastward into the northeastern Gulf. These storms will continue moving northeastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast tonight. Low-level moisture advection, associated with the approaching mid-level system, will contribute to a gradual increase in instability across the central and eastern Gulf Coast. For this reason, a marginal severe threat is expected to develop tonight from southern Mississippi eastward into southern Alabama, northern Florida and far southern Georgia. The primary threat will be for isolated severe gusts. A conditional threat for a brief tornado is also expected. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2025 Read more

MD 0157 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0157 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...southeast Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082123Z - 090000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong storms are expected to develop over the next few hours, with isolated large hail or gusty winds possible. DISCUSSION...A weak surface low is present south of the Austin TX area, where a cold front approaching from the west is intersecting the southward surging boundary. The eastern portion of the boundary extends across the Sabine River and into southern LA, with substantial clouds and cooler temperatures within that zone. Southerly winds across the warm sector have led to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, with temperatures in the 80s F and dewpoints mixed into the upper 60s F. Deep-layer shear is robust at over 60 kt, with lengthy hodographs. Low-level winds are relatively weak, but modest SRH values exist near the warm advection zone east of Houston. Visible imagery shows deepening CU fields around Houston, indicative of a moist deepening boundary layer, and showers are beginning to show on radar. As the cold front pushes into the area and interacts with the unstable air mass near peak heating, at least isolated cells are anticipated. Good lapse rates aloft and strong deep shear will support hail. A conditional damaging wind or even brief tornado risk could potentially occur with any storm that remains situated along the cold front/warm front intersection north/east of Houston, but any such threat should remain localized. ..Jewell/Bunting.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...EWX... LAT...LON 30819565 30979498 30879446 30529426 30179440 29829462 29399504 29169542 28939588 28769627 28869661 29059674 29309674 29769662 29889653 30509606 30819565 Read more