SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will traverse the southern Rockies, encouraging surface lee troughing and associated dry downslope flow across portions of the southern High Plains today. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds in the 15-25 range will overlap with 5-15 percent RH and fuels receptive to wildfire spread over portions of extreme southeast Arizona into western Texas, necessitating the maintenance of Elevated and Critical highlights. Meanwhile, a surface trough and associated cold front will sweep across the Northeast today. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly surface winds, mainly around 10 mph, will coincide with 25-40 percent RH during the afternoon. Given the marginal surface wind fields and recent rainfall, Elevated highlights have been withheld. Still, at least localized wildfire-spread potential exists where stronger wind gusts can overlap with dry fuel beds. ..Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...NORTHEAST TEXAS...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND EXTREME NORTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Southeast OK/ArkLaTex into western MS... An upper shortwave trough will quickly progress east from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico into the southern Plains by afternoon, and the South by Thursday morning. The stronger jet streak will remain over central/southeast TX before shifting to the central Gulf coast overnight. Nevertheless, the left exit region of the broader 50-60 kt southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the ArkLaTex region during the afternoon/evening. Meanwhile, a modest surface low will move into central OK by late afternoon with a dryline extending south near/just east of the I-35 corridor. Boundary layer moisture will remain modest, with mainly 50s F dewpoints expected across eastern OK into AR. Near-60 F dewpoints may approach the Red River, but overall moisture will remain shallow and the boundary layer should become well-mixed. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles will be present and cooling aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates. This will foster MLCAPE values to around 1500 J/kg. Some uncertainty remain regarding storm coverage. Notably, the NAM maintains quite strong capping, while the HRRR, RAP, GFS and ECMWF guidance are more subdued (or fully erode any capping). A slight risk has been added near the dryline, close to the surface triple point where deeper, sustained convection appears most likely. Given aforementioned parameter space, large hail and strong gusts are the most probable storm hazards from late afternoon into Wednesday night. ..Leitman.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Mar 11 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are expected across far southern California and into Arizona today. Severe storms are not expected. ...Discussion... As an upper low just off the East Coast this morning progresses across the western Atlantic, quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected across a substantial portion of the country. An exception will be across the southwestern states, as a second low shifts inland over southern California and northern Baja, and gradually progresses into Arizona/northwestern Mexico. As this system advances, and mid-level lapse rates steepen, showers and occasional/embedded lightning will spread inland, affecting southern California through the day, and across the Colorado Valley into Arizona overnight. Weak buoyancy should preclude any appreciable severe risk. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms have shifted offshore over south Florida, and will gradually do so over eastern North Carolina as well. Inland severe weather is not expected. ...Discussion... An upper low now centered over the lower Savannah River Valley will continue moving eastward this evening, eventually moving offshore/over the Gulf Stream. As this occurs, a surface low just offshore of the Carolina Coast will likewise shift northeastward. A cold front trailing southwestward from the surface low has cleared the Florida Peninsula. Associated deep/moist convection has likewise moved offshore, ending the earlier risk over southern Florida. Meanwhile, elevated convection persists over parts of eastern North Carolina, along with sporadic inland lightning, though the majority of the lightning activity is now occurring offshore. This trend will continue, but for this evening, will maintain a small 10% thunder area over the North Carolina Coastal Plain. ..Goss.. 03/11/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 10 21:49:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An extended period of critical fire-weather conditions is expected across much of the southern Plains through the extended forecast period. The day of greatest concern is Day 5/Friday, when high-end critical to extremely critical conditions appear likely. ...Days 3-4/Wednesday-Thursday - Southern Plains... A robust low-latitude shortwave trough and strong midlevel westerly flow will cross the southern Rockies and adjacent Plains on Day 3/Wednesday. Deep boundary-layer mixing behind an associated dryline and a tightening surface pressure gradient will favor critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. Thereafter, a highly amplified large-scale trough will track eastward across the West, resulting in a deepening lee trough and dry/windy conditions across the southern High Plains on Day 4/Thursday -- where critical conditions are expected. The 70-percent Critical probabilities for Day 4/Thursday may need to be expanded northward into the central High Plains if guidance comes into better agreement with the overlap of strong surface winds and low RH. ...Day 5/Friday - Southern Plains... In the base of the highly amplified large-scale trough, a 100+ kt west-southwesterly midlevel jet will overspread the southern and central Plains, while a related surface cyclone rapidly deepens over the central High Plains. South of the surface cyclone and west of a related dryline, 30+ mph sustained westerly surface winds (with gusts upwards of 60-70 mph) will overlap single-digit to lower teens RH across portions of the southern Plains. Given increasingly dry/receptive fuels, high-end critical to extremely critical conditions can be expected. ...Days 6-8/Saturday-Monday - Southern Plains... On the backside of the amplified midlevel trough, a reinforcing midlevel jet streak will impinge on the southern Plains, favoring another day of critical conditions on Day 6/Saturday. Substantial differences among the medium-range guidance limits forecast confidence thereafter, though the overall pattern should support continued fire-weather concerns on Days 7-8/Sunday-Monday, with critical conditions possible both days (especially Day 8/Monday). ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO... The previous forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. Farther east, a modest pre-frontal pressure gradient and ample diurnal heating/boundary-layer mixing will favor breezy/gusty southwesterly surface winds and around 30 percent RH from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast during the afternoon. This may result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions where fuels are receptive, though the overall threat appears too localized for highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough over the eastern Pacific will rapidly approach the CONUS and impinge on the Desert Southwest tomorrow (Tuesday), encouraging surface low development across the southern Plains. As this occurs, dry downslope flow from the southern Rockies will overspread portions of the southern High Plains, promoting wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, west-southwesterly surface winds in the 15-25 mph range will become common, along with RH dipping to 5-15 percent. Critical fire weather highlights have been introduced where guidance consensus shows 20+ mph sustained surface winds overlapping with 10 percent RH for at least a few hours Tuesday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts will continue across the southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk area was reduced across central Florida with this update with the passage of the front. Some severe risk continues across portions of the southern Florida peninsula where temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s to 80s with MLCAPE around 500 J/kg remaining ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer flow remains strong as the mid-level wave continues to move across the peninsula, which may support instance of a stronger storm or two capable of damaging wind. ..Thornton/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from eastern Texas into southeast Oklahoma, southern Arkansas, northern Louisiana, and western Mississippi late Wednesday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... A fast-moving mid-level trough will traverse from the Southwest Wednesday morning, across the southern Plains and into the Mid-Mississippi Valley by early Thursday morning. A weak surface cyclone will develop near the TX/OK Panhandles and move to the Ozark vicinity by late Wednesday evening. A dryline will extend from this surface low and sharpen across east-central Texas by early evening. ...Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Southerly flow will bring moisture northward ahead of the dryline on Wednesday afternoon. While some 60s dewpoints may approach the Red River, the moisture will be quite shallow with mean mixing ratio values around 10 g/kg ahead of the dryline. However, despite the low-quality moisture, cool mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability and mid-level forcing will be strong which should permit thunderstorm development along the dryline during the late afternoon and early evening. 40-50+ knots of effective shear is forecast beneath the mid-level jet streak. Therefore, supercells are possible with a threat for both large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado. This threat should continue into the overnight period as moisture quality increases across the warm sector amid continued height falls and strengthening isentropic ascent. Some consideration was given to a Slight risk across portions of southeast Oklahoma and northeast Texas. However, the shallow nature of the moisture and the impact that may have on convective coverage during the afternoon/evening is the primary limiting factor at this time. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across far southwest California and southern/central Arizona Tuesday afternoon/evening. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A closed upper low, off the coast of southern California Tuesday morning, will slowly drift inland across southern California and become more of an open wave across southern Arizona by the end of the period. The moisture stream ahead of this trough has some tropical connection which will bring near 1 inch PWAT values to coastal southern California and southern Arizona. This low-level moisture, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will provide an environment favorable for scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon/evening. Instability should be generally weak (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) but greatest beneath the upper low, where mid-level flow will also be weak. Therefore, thunderstorm activity should be most favored where shear is weakest and thus, the severe weather threat should remain minimal. Any marginal severe weather threat which may be present will likely be farther south across northern Mexico beneath the stronger mid-level flow. ..Bentley.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1145 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101700Z - 111200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In addition, dry/breezy conditions along the CO Front Range may favor locally elevated fire-weather conditions (especially in the gap flow areas) today. However, these conditions and receptive fuels appear too localized for highlights. ..Weinman.. 03/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level impulse will traverse the north-central CONUS today, encouraging surface troughing across the northern Plains into the southern High Plains, with a surface cold front poised to surge southward across the northern Plains during the later half of the period. Preceding the surface cold front, within the surface troughing regime, dry and windy conditions are expected across portions of the northern and central Plains. Over the central Plains, 15-25 mph west-southwesterly sustained surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH will encourage Elevated wildfire-spread potential given dry fuels. Across the northern Plains, closer to the stronger upper support, sustained westerly surface winds may reach 20 mph in spots, with sustained northwesterly surface winds potentially exceeding 30 mph behind the cold front. Given dry fine fuels and RH dipping to at least the 15-25 percent range by afternoon peak heating, Elevated/Critical highlights have been maintained. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101630Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible across the central and southern Florida Peninsula this afternoon and evening. ...Central/Southern FL Peninsula... Recent surface analysis places a low just off the GA Coast, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low across far southeast GA and western north FL into the northeastern Gulf. A relatively broad surface trough (and modest wind shift) exists ahead of this front across the central FL Peninsula. Thunderstorms are currently ongoing within the area of low-level confluence and moisture convergence, which extends well offshore. The downstream airmass across central and southern FL is currently characterized by temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s, and dewpoints in the low 70s. Overall buoyancy within these warm and moist conditions is currently mitigated somewhat by warm temperatures aloft, which were sampled well by the 12Z MFL sounding. Even so, enough boundary-layer warming appears likely throughout the day to maintain modest destabilization within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content. Continued thunderstorm development is anticipated within this corridor as it gradually shifts southward/southeastward this afternoon and evening. Strong low to mid-level flow will persist across the peninsula, with a resulting persistence of deep-layer vertical shear. As such, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk from these storms. Modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs suggest a short-lived tornado or two is also possible throughout the day, but these hodographs are forecast to shrink with southern extent as surface to 850 mb flow veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. As mentioned in the recently issued MCD #0161, the near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach appear to have the greatest (although still relatively low) tornado risk this afternoon. ..Mosier/Wendt.. 03/10/2025 Read more

MD 0161 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
Mesoscale Discussion 0161 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1000 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Areas affected...parts of central and southern Florida Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101500Z - 101700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development remains possible into mid to late afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps some marginally severe hail appear the primary potential hazards, but a short-lived tornado or two might still be possible, particularly near coastal areas between Palm Beach and Vero Beach this afternoon. DISCUSSION...The center of developing surface cyclone is now east of the Georgia coast, and forecast to undergo more substantive deepening while migrating northeastward offshore of the South Carolina coast through 18-20Z. As this proceeds, it appears that modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs will shrink as flow around 850 mb veers to a more westerly component and begins to weaken some. This will coincide with the continued southward advancement of a surface cold front trailing the cyclone across the central through southern peninsula. Still, boundary-layer warming, aided by insolation, appears likely to maintain modest destabilization, within at least a narrow corridor of higher pre-frontal moisture content characterized by dew points near 70f and precipitable water on the order of 1.75+ inches. In the presence of continuing strong deep-layer shear, beneath 50-70+ kt flow around 500 mb, the environment will remain favorable for isolated to widely scattered supercell development. These may primarily pose a risk for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail, but a short-lived tornado or two might still not be entirely out of the question. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW... LAT...LON 26358203 27998120 28678064 27257998 25578086 25868185 26358203 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0725 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with an isolated risk for severe gusts, and potentially a tornado, will be possible through early afternoon in parts of north and central Florida. ...FL Peninsula... Morning satellite/radar analysis shows a mid-level trough over AL/MS moving east-southeast towards FL, while a broken band of pre-frontal showers/storms extends from parts of north FL south-southwestward into the eastern Gulf west of Fort Myers. The mid-level trough will move over the Peninsula by early evening. A cold front is forecast to push southeast across the northern and central portions of the Peninsula through mid afternoon and coincide with thunderstorm development pushing east of the FL east coast. In the meantime, moist/southerly low-level flow will maintain a reservoir of moderate buoyancy (1200 J/kg MLCAPE per the 12 UTC Tampa Bay raob). Strong mid- to high-level flow will aid in storm organization contingent on adequately strong/sustained updraft development. An isolated threat for locally strong to severe thunderstorms will seemingly exist prior to storms exiting the east coast later this afternoon. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/10/2025 Read more

MD 0160 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0160 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the northern FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 101133Z - 101400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning. DISCUSSION...At 11 UTC, a warm front draped across the northern FL peninsula is gradually moving northward. Along/south of this boundary, dewpoints near 70 F are supporting MLCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg, despite the presence of generally weak low/midlevel lapse rates. While deep-layer shear is more than sufficient to support organized convection, storms have generally remained disorganized thus far, likely due in part to the weak lapse rates and lack of stronger large-scale ascent across the area. Some increase in large-scale ascent is expected through the morning, as a positive-tilt midlevel shortwave trough approaches the region, and a frontal wave moves eastward across the northern peninsula. With time, more vigorous storm development will be possible along/ahead of a cold front approaching the FL Gulf Coast, and a few stronger cells/clusters may evolve. 0-1 km SRH in excess of 200 m2/s2 (as noted on the KTBW VWP) will support at least a brief tornado threat if any supercells can be sustained, with localized strong/damaging gusts and small to near-severe hail also possible. The magnitude/coverage of the severe threat remains uncertain and potentially limited, due to generally weak lapse rates and modest buoyancy. However, observational trends will continue to be monitored for the potential of storm organization within a diurnally destabilizing environment later this morning. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE... LAT...LON 29748108 28648102 27378138 26658167 26428187 26508222 26728233 27038244 27878285 28288298 28898313 29248325 29808242 30158194 30238143 29748108 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Mon Mar 10 2025 Valid 131200Z - 181200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 4/Thu - Southeast... A shortwave upper trough will move across the Southeast on Thursday. Stronger deep-layer flow will mainly be focused over the Gulf. However, cooler temperatures aloft will support weak instability and a strong storm or two may occur over portions of AL/GA and the FL Panhandle. Overall severe potential appears limited. ...Day 5/Fri - ArkLaTex to the Mid/Lower MS Valley vicinity... A regional outbreak of severe storms is forecast late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours. An intense upper cyclone will deepen as it ejects northeast from the central/southern Plains to the Upper Midwest by Saturday morning. A 100+ kt 500 mb jet streak will move across OK into the Ozark Plateau during the late afternoon and evening, before lifting north across the Mid-MS Valley overnight. At the surface, a rapidly deepening surface low will move across the central Plains to the Upper Midwest, with a cold front surging east across the region from late afternoon into Saturday morning. Deeper Gulf moisture will be confined to the I-20 corridor Friday morning. However, intense low-level flow will quickly transport moisture northward through the mid-MS Valley. Surface dewpoints greater than 60 F will likely remain south of the MO Bootheel vicinity, with a broader area of more modest moisture as far north as northeast IA/southwest WI and northern IL. While moisture will be less favorable with northward extent, strong large-scale ascent, intense deep-layer flow and a surging cold front will likely be sufficient for severe convection even amid weak instability. Further south from the ArkLaTex vicinity to the Lower MS Valley, better quality moisture is expected to overlap intense shear. Overall, this pattern will support all severe hazards, with a potential mixed mode evolution (QLCS and supercells). The north and east extent of severe potential remains a bit uncertain either due to moisture concerns and/or spread among various guidance in timing and position of key features. Severe probabilities will likely be refined over the coming days as these features become better resolved. ...Day 6/Sat - Southeast... The Upper Midwest cyclone will eject northeast into Ontario on Saturday. Meanwhile the base of the larger-scale upper trough over the Plains ejects east toward the Lower MS Valley and Southeast. This will maintain strong deep-layer southwesterly flow across the region, with an intense low-level jet expected to develop by late afternoon as stronger height falls overspread the Deep South. Ongoing convection at the beginning of the period from the Lower OH Valley toward northern MS/LA adds some uncertainty regarding how the airmass will destabilize (especially with northward extent). However, it appears likely that a very favorable corridor of rich boundary layer moisture will overlap strong shear from central/southern MS into northern AL ahead of a cold front expected to surge across the area during the evening. This overall pattern appears favorable for both supercells and an eventual QLCS. ...Day 7/Sun - Eastern states... The upper trough over the central U.S. will lift northeast over the eastern states on Sunday. Some severe potential is possible given strong deep-layer flow atop a moist boundary layer ahead of the eastward-advancing cold front. However, destabilization may be limited by widespread training precipitation. Read more