SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 160100Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will continue south and east this evening into Wednesday morning. A few isolated lightning flashes are still possible near the lower Great Lakes vicinity, but as subsidence increases aloft, coverage should remain well below 10%. Additional isolated thunderstorms will remain possible with a cutoff low in the Four Corners region. Finally, isolated thunderstorms will continue for another few hours in south Florida near a remnant front with some potential for development near the Space Coast later this evening. ..Wendt.. 10/16/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 231200Z A large-scale trough will amplify over the western CONUS on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday, before evolving into a closed midlevel low over the Four Corners region into Day 6/Saturday. Ahead of the trough, strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great Plains on Day 3/Thursday, while the surface pressure gradient tightens between a deepening lee trough over the High Plains and expansive surface anticyclone over the eastern CONUS. ...Day 3/Thursday - Northern/Central Plains... The tightening pressure gradient and shallow boundary-layer mixing into the strong deep-layer flow will favor an expansive area of strong/gusty southerly surface winds across the Great Plains and Upper/Middle MS Valley. While the degree of boundary-layer heating/mixing and related RH reductions are uncertain (especially with northward extent), confidence in at least 25-percent RH overlapping the strong/gusty winds is high enough to introduce a 70-percent Critical area. ...Day 4/Friday - Northern/Central California... On the backside of the amplified large-scale trough, strong deep-layer northerly flow will develop across California on Day 4/Friday -- where a relatively warm/dry air mass will be in place. This will promote elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS... The Critical area in the central/northern Plains was expanded slightly westward, northward, and northeastward. Here, confidence in the overlap of 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts) and around 20 percent RH over dry fuels has increased. An Elevated area was introduced over portions of the central Gulf Coast, where breezy post-frontal winds (sustained around 15 mph with higher gusts) will overlap 25-30 percent RH for a few hours during the afternoon. The Elevated area has been confined to areas that missed out on appreciable rainfall over the last month, and fuels should be receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 15 20:01:02 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 15 20:01:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains valid with minimal changes, severe thunderstorms are not expected. Isolated lightning with low-topped thunderstorms will remain possible over the Great Lakes and central Appalachians into early this evening. Scattered storms will also remain likely over parts of the Southern Rockies ahead of a south/southwestward surging cold front. Additional isolated storms are possible ahead of the front along the Gulf Coast this evening/tonight. Cold mid-level temps beneath an upper trough moving onshore may be sufficient for sporadic lightning within the deeper convective showers over parts of northwest WA late tonight. However, cool surface temperatures, and paltry buoyancy (MUCAPE ~100-200 J/kg) suggest any lightning that does actually develop will likely remain below 10% spatial coverage. ..Lyons.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to amplify across the West on Thursday. Multiple embedded shortwaves will move through the large-scale trough, with the most significant of these shortwaves forecast to dig southeastward from the Pacific Northwest toward the Great Basin and develop into a mid/upper-level cyclone by the end of the period. Farther east, a mid/upper-level cyclone initially near the NC/VA coast is forecast to move eastward, with an upper-level ridge building in its wake from the Great Lakes into the Southeast. Rich low-level moisture will remain suppressed from the central/southern Gulf of Mexico into the FL Keys, in the wake of an earlier frontal passage. This will generally limit organized severe potential across most of the CONUS. A broad region from west TX into the Rockies, Great Basin, Northwest, and possibly parts of the High Plains will see potential for generally weak convection with isolated/sporadic lightning flashes. The greatest relative storm coverage may occur during the afternoon from west TX into the southern/central Rockies, and later Thursday night across the southern Great Basin into northern Arizona, in association with the developing mid/upper-level cyclone. ...Southern Great Basin into Northern Arizona... Modest low-level moisture may stream northward from the lower CO River Valley into northern AZ and the southern Great Basin by Thursday evening, in advance of the developing mid/upper-level cyclone and associated surface low and cold front. This gradual moistening combined with cooling midlevel temperatures may support some instability increase, accompanied by the potential for at least isolated storm development through the evening into Thursday night. Rather strong deep-layer shear will be conditionally favorable for storm organization, but it remains uncertain if instability will become sufficient to support any organized severe threat. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not currently expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level low is forecast to develop on Wednesday near coastal NC/VA, within the trailing portion of an amplified and positively tilted trough covering much of the eastern CONUS. A cold front will continue moving southward across Deep South TX, the northern/central Gulf of Mexico, and Florida. Elsewhere, a weakening midlevel low initially over AZ will move northeastward as a shortwave trough, as it becomes absorbed in large-scale cyclonic flow associated with a deepening mid/upper-level trough over the western CONUS. Limited moisture/instability across most of the CONUS will limit the organized severe-thunderstorm threat. Richer moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will support thunderstorm potential across Deep South TX, and also into parts of far south FL and the Keys. Isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible from eastern UT into western CO and vicinity, in association with the ejecting shortwave trough. Multiple embedded shortwaves within the amplifying large-scale trough may also support weak convection with sporadic/isolated lightning flashes from northeast CA into northern NV and the interior Northwest, and also near the Pacific Northwest coast. ...Deep South Texas... Deepening moisture in the vicinity of the frontal zone will result in moderate destabilization across parts of Deep South TX, especially in closer proximity to the Gulf Coast. Storms may develop near the coast during the morning, with increasing storm coverage by afternoon. MLCAPE potentially increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range could support a couple strong storms within this regime. However, with generally weak deep-layer flow/shear forecast across the region, organized severe potential appears limited at this time. ...Far south FL and the Keys... Limited frontal convergence and weak large-scale ascent will tend to limit storm coverage in the vicinity of the front across parts of FL. However, at least isolated storm development will be possible across far south FL and the Keys, where deeper tropical moisture will remain in place. Weak midlevel lapse rates and only modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit storm intensity, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening. ..Dean.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151700Z - 161200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest surface observations and high-resolution guidance. In particular, the northern portion of the Elevated area was trimmed slightly, where weaker winds are expected compared to areas farther south. Over the TX Panhandle and Rolling Plains, the combination of strong northeasterly surface winds and 20-25 percent RH will favor a couple hours of elevated conditions into this evening, and the Elevated area was expanded to account for this. ..Weinman.. 10/15/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151630Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. A combination of cold air aloft, steep lapse rates, and warm late temperatures will aid in the development of isolated thunderstorms across parts of the Midwest states today. Other high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening over the Four-Corners region. And finally, a few thunderstorms will continue to affect parts of south FL and the Keys through the forecast period. No severe storms are anticipated today. ..Hart/Thornton.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151300Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A highly amplified mid/upper-level pattern will persist over the CONUS, characterized by an elongated cyclone over the Great Lakes and Northeast, with a primary center initially over the lower St. Lawrence River region. The associated 500-mb low should drift erratically near its present location for most of today, then move northeastward toward the easternmost extension of QC overnight. A strong, basal trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over the Lower Great Lakes and southern Upper Great Lakes region, westward across the upper Mississippi Valley. This trough will pivot southeastward through the period, then by 12Z tomorrow, extend from offshore of New England across VA, the western Carolinas, northern GA, to central MS and the Arklatex region. Associated cold air aloft, steep low/middle-level lapse rates (aided by boundary-layer flow off the relatively warm lakes) and weak moisture will foster isolated thunderstorm potential south of portions of Lakes Erie and Michigan today. Elsewhere, thunderstorms have persisted all night in a residual, quasistationary, convectively reinforced baroclinic zone draped across the Bahamas and southern/western Straits of FL. This thunder potential should persist episodically through the period, with some inland development possible this afternoon across the Everglades and perhaps adjoining southern parts of metro South FL. A stronger boundary, moving southward through northern/central FL as a cold front, may support isolated thunder near that part of the FL East Coast today, amid modest moisture/lift. In the Four Corners region, isolated to widely scattered, high-based thunderstorms are expected this afternoon as heating/mixing reduce generally 30s F surface dewpoints into the 20s, but still just enough moisture to support weak (generally less than 200 J/kg) peak MLCAPE. ..Edwards.. 10/15/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 181200Z - 231200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance indicates that a closed low will form within an amplifying short wave trough digging southeast of the southern Great Basin/lower Colorado Valley by early Friday. It appears probable that this will become cut off from the westerlies, with the center of the modestly broad circulation lingering near or southwest of the Four Corners into early Sunday, as low-amplitude ridging passes by to the north, near the western through central Canadian/U.S. border area. Sunday into Monday, models suggest that it may come under the influence of strengthening westerly mean flow, transitioning to an open wave and accelerating northeastward into the central Great Plains, before continuing to migrate around the northeastern periphery of building mid-level ridging centered over the subtropics. Models continue to indicate that this is unlikely to become accompanied by significant surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies. And low-level moisture return in the wake of weakening cold surface ridging across the northwest Gulf Coast region may remain modest to weak. While modestly steep lapse rates may contribute to isolated to widely scattered strong diurnal thunderstorm development near surface troughing to the lee of the Front Range, Sangre de Cristo and Sacramento Mountains Friday through Sunday, the overall severe weather potential still appears generally low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...MUCH OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND INTO NORTHERN/NORTHWEST KANSAS.... ...Synopsis... ...Central and Northern Plains... A strong (sub 1000mb) surface cyclone will develop across eastern Montana on Monday, with strong winds expected across much of the central and northern Plains. This is due to the tight pressure gradient between this surface low and the strong area of high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley. The strongest winds are expected from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are possible. The lowest relative humidity is also expected in a similar area with sub 20 percent relative humidity from the Texas Panhandle to central Minnesota. A Critical area has been added from west-central Kansas to southern South Dakota where these strongest winds and low relative humidities overlap the driest fuels. ...Central Nevada into western Utah... Some troughing may develop in the lee of the Sierra on Wednesday as a mid-level trough crosses California. The combination of some modest mid-level flow strengthening above a well mixed airmass, and some tightening of the pressure gradient, may result in 15 to 20 mph winds across central Nevada and into western Utah. An extended period of above normal temperatures have dried fuels substantially in this region recently. Therefore, an Elevated delineation has been added to address the threat. ...Gulf Coast... Some dry and breezy offshore flow is possible across portions of the Gulf Coast Wednesday with relative humidity of 20 to 30 percent and surface winds of 10 to 15 mph. The strongest winds are currently only forecast near the coast where fuels are not as receptive. The only exception is across central Louisiana where some stronger winds are possible. However, relative humidity is also not forecast to be as dry across this region. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will move south across the central Plains and Midwest today. This will sharpen a surface cold front and tighten the pressure gradient across the Plains as strong high pressure builds into the Upper Midwest. Sustained winds around 25 mph are expected in the wake of this cold front from southern Kansas into southwest Missouri, northwest Arkansas, across most of Oklahoma and into northwest Texas. In addition, relative humidity is also expected to be 15 to 25 percent. Fuels have cured across most of this area, as 30 day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 6 inches. Therefore, an Elevated delineation is warranted. Some breezy conditions are possible across the northern Plains this afternoon on the western periphery of the anticyclone where fuels are critically dry. However no Elevated area has been delineated, as it appears the strongest winds will be in areas with 25 to 35 percent relative humidity. ..Bentley.. 10/15/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more