SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... Modest modifications were made in the central/southern Plains based on recent guidance. The previous forecast reasoning otherwise remains valid. Additional details are available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Moderately strong zonal flow will persist across the US today and tonight. A shortwave trough and jet streak will move across the Rockies, while a second trough and jet move over the Appalachians. Dry and breezy conditions are likely within areas of dry fuels from the southern and central Plains to the Piedmont and southern Appalachians. ...Central High Plains... Breezy northwesterly downslope winds of 15-25 mph are likely across parts of eastern SD, WY, CO and NE as the upper trough and strong jet shift southeast. Downslope warming/drying should also support RH values below 30% across much of the central High Plains. Additionally, weak showers and virga may produce strong gusts with little wetting rainfall potential. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather concerns to develop, given the dry and breezy conditions within drying fuels. ...Southern High Plains... Across the southern high Plains, strong westerly winds are likely along and behind a lee trough across eastern NM and west TX. Stronger mid-level flow, and the surface trough, will enhance surface winds to 15-25 mph, with the strong gusts likely across portions of eastern NM and west TX. With warm diurnal temperatures in the 70s and 80s, the dry downslope flow and strong mixing will support min RH values of 10-20%. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely across the southern High Plains. Additionally, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of OK and KS through the afternoon. Southerly gusts of 15-20 mph with min RH of 20-25% may support a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions over dry fuels. Returning moisture should eventually limit the lower RH. ...Appalachians... A dry cold front will move eastward over the central/southern Appalachians this afternoon with dry westerly flow likely in its wake. Sustained westerly, downslope wind speeds are expected to reach 10 to 20 mph here by early afternoon with locally stronger gusts. Relative humidity of 20-25% is likely, within critically dry fuels. Several hours of elevated to locally critical conditions are likely given the overlap of dry/windy conditions and little recent rainfall within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Hart/Halbert.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/NORTHEAST OK TO OZARKS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into eastern Kansas and much of Missouri. ...Northeast OK/eastern KS to Ozarks/Lower MO Valley... A shortwave trough will steadily amplify and dig southeastward late today and tonight across the northern Plains, with deepening surface lows expected across the South Dakota/Minnesota vicinity as well as the southern Plains tonight. Modest-caliber low-level moisture return will precede a southeast-accelerating cold front across the Plains. Daytime heating combined with the developing moist plume will lead to destabilization over eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through late afternoon and early evening, with stronger elevated instability rapidly developing across eastern Kansas and Missouri during the evening into the overnight. Indications are that initial storm development could occur by around 00-03Z over northeast Oklahoma near the low-level jet axis as moisture spreads into the heated-air mass and beneath cool temperatures aloft. Strong and veering winds with height, as well as deepening moisture through 700 mb, will favor cells producing large hail as cells develop into southern Missouri and possibly far northern Arkansas. Portions of the OK/KS/AR/MO border vicinity will be reevaluated in subsequent outlooks for the possibility of a semi-focused hail-related Slight Risk upgrade. There may also be a low risk of a tornado, though highly conditional at this time given the modest moisture, related to the southernmost development closer to the stronger SBCAPE from far northeast Oklahoma into extreme northwest Arkansas. Overnight, as a cold front moves east-southeastward across Kansas, lift will be enhanced further. A few cells or perhaps a cluster of storms could develop along the front, conditional on capping, with both hail and wind gust potential. In addition, the unstable air mass extending north toward the Iowa/Missouri border will support isolated hail as well within the warm advection regime. ...North-Central High Plains... Steep lapse rates through a deep layer will develop this afternoon north of the mid-level jet axis and behind the cold front and developing surface low to the east. Forecast soundings indicate minimal buoyancy in this drier air mass, however, moderate northwest flow and favorable diurnal heating/mixing could yield a few stronger wind gusts. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/22/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models are in reasonable agreement into the Day 6 (Thurs. Mar. 27) time period, after which divergence in solutions at the synoptic scale begins to increase. This lack of predictability in the latter half of the period results in lack of confidence with respect to any assessment of severe-weather potential. Through the first half of the period, severe-weather potential appears limited -- particularly Days 4-5 (Tuesday and Wednesday of next week). During this time period, an upper trough will advance slowly eastward across the eastern U.S., with the main surface baroclinic zone suppressed southward into the Gulf of America and high pressure building in its wake. Day 6, hints of a rather weak upper disturbance moving into the southern Plains could support local/limited severe potential with a few strong storms, but certainly not appearing sufficient in nature to warrant an areal inclusion at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA EAST TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplifying upper trough is forecast to move slowly eastward across the eastern U.S. Monday, with broad cyclonic flow to encompass the eastern 3/4 of the country by Tuesday morning. At the surface, an occluded low over the Lake Huron vicinity early, should weaken and drift northeastward toward/across the Ottawa Valley through the period. A trailing cold front is forecast to advance southeastward across the Southeast and Gulf Coast region, while lingering over, and eventually retreating northward across, Texas. ...Southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... As the cold front shifts southward toward the Gulf Coast Monday, heating/destabilization should be sufficient in the vicinity of the boundary to support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates are not forecast to be particularly steep, which will limit instability, and flow aloft is forecast to gradually weaken from west to east across the region with time as the upper trough shifts eastward. Still, ample CAPE/shear may remain present across the central Gulf Coast region and vicinity to support local risk for marginal hail and or strong wind gusts during mainly the afternoon hours. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... CORRECTED SYNOPSIS ...SUMMARY... Afternoon storms from western Tennessee southwestward to northeastern Texas may pose a risk for severe wind and hail, and possibly a tornado or two. ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to continue progressing across the Great Lakes region through Monday morning, as a lead feature exits New England. At the surface, an occluding low -- initially over the Minnesota area, is forecast to deepen while shifting eastward into the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front will shift south-southeastward across the Ozarks and the Red River Valley area, and later the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. ...Eastern Texas northeastward to the Tennessee Valley area... Daytime heating ahead of a slowly southeastward-advancing cold front will result in modest destabilization across the Tennessee Valley area, and more substantial CAPE westward across the Arklatex into Texas. While capping will be a concern, resulting in increasingly conditional severe risk with westward extent, ascent near the front should be sufficient to support scattered to isolated storm development -- particularly from the Arklatex to western Tennessee, during the afternoon. With fast westerly flow aloft, atop south-southwesterlies at low levels, shear sufficient for organized/rotating storms suggest that stronger storms will be capable of producing hail and locally damaging wind gusts. The risk should maximize through late afternoon/early evening, and then gradually diminishing in tandem with diurnal cooling through mid to late evening. ..Goss.. 03/22/2025 Read more