SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to begin the period over the Mid MS Valley, before continuing quickly northeastward across the Upper Great Lakes and becoming embedded within the stronger westerlies. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies while also deepening. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low associated with the second, deeper shortwave trough will move just ahead of its parent wave across northern Ontario into western Quebec. As it does, a cold front attendant to this low will push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... Upper low centered over the Four Corners region early Sunday is expected to become more progressive by early Monday, tracking northeastward across the central Plains throughout the day. As it does, associated enhanced mid-level flow throughout the base of this system and cold mid-level temperatures will spread across the central Plains (and adjacent portions of the TX Panhandle and OK). At the surface, a weak low attendant to the upper system will move across KS, just to the southeast of the upper low. Some modest low-level moisture will precede this system, with isolated strong to severe thunderstorms possible. ...Central Plains into eastern TX Panhandle and western OK... Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing from the TX Panhandle into far eastern CO/western KS early Monday morning, fostered by warm advection preceding the upper low mentioned in the synopsis. Showers and elevated thunderstorms are expected to continue within the warm conveyor throughout the day amid the modest buoyancy fostered predominantly by increased mid-level moisture and cooling mid-level temperatures. Vertical shear will be strong enough to support updraft organization/rotation, with a resultant risk for large hail. Even so, a predominantly linear and elevated storm mode suggest that the overall severe potential will be limited. A relatively greater severe risk is anticipated in the wake of this initial activity, as the surface low and attendant troughing progress through central KS and adjacent portions of south-central NE and northwest OK. Diurnal destabilization appears probable when the cloud cover associated with the leading showers and thunderstorms moves east and temperatures warm into the low to mid 70s. These temperatures amid low 60s dewpoints and cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -14 to -16 deg C at 500 mb) will help support 1000 to 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Mid-level flow will remain strong, with some additional strengthening of the shear provided by backing of the low-level flow near the surface low. This backed low-level flow will also lengthen the low-level hodograph. Overall environment supports organized discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. Current guidance suggest the most favorable time frame for severe is between 21Z and 03Z from central KS into south-central NE. However, uncertainty remains regarding both how much diurnal destabilization occurs and the overall storm coverage. As a result, will maintain low severe probabilities for this outlook, but a higher probabilities may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in sufficient storm coverage increases. ..Mosier.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 20 17:02:02 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. ..Hart/Supinie.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM... Satellite imagery shows a deep and cold upper low over the Four-Corners region today, with a band of moderately strong mid-level winds rotating around the low across NM. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been occurring across the mountains and adjacent plains of NM this morning, with relatively widespread clouds and limited opportunity for daytime heating. It appears this trend will continue through the afternoon across northeast NM, but eroding low-cloud cover should result in a region of greater surface-based instability over east-central and southeast NM. Morning CAM solutions agree on the development of a few discrete/supercell storms in this area by late afternoon. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear, favorable for large hail in the more robust updrafts. Low-level winds are backed but not particularly strong, but strong winds above 2km result in sufficient hodograph curvature for some concern for a couple of tornadoes - especially in the 00-03z time period. Activity may approach the NM/TX border this evening before weakening. ..Hart/Supinie.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0723 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NM... ...SUMMARY... Occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), isolated strong-severe outflow gusts (50-60 mph), and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across eastern New Mexico this afternoon/evening. ...Eastern NM this afternoon/evening... In response to gradual upstream height falls over the Great Basin, a closed midlevel low now over northeast AZ will move east-northeastward to southern CO/northern NM by Monday morning. A narrow corridor of moisture return (boundary-layer dewpoints in the mid-upper 50s) will be maintained across eastern NM, along and east of a diffuse lee trough/weak cold front. Pockets of surface heating in cloud breaks across southern/southeastern NM will boost buoyancy during the afternoon (MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg) when convective inhibition will be quite weak and thunderstorm coverage/intensity are both expected to increase across eastern NM. Midlevel lapse rates will not be particularly steep, but relatively long hodographs will favor supercells capable of producing occasional large hail (1-2 inches in diameter), as well as isolated strong outflow gusts (50-60 mph). Additionally, an increase in low-level hodograph curvature through the afternoon/evening in a sufficiently moist environment will support the potential for a couple of tornadoes. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/20/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0404 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive mid-level pattern will be in place across the CONUS by the middle of this week and through the weekend. A cold front will move through the northeast CONUS on Wednesday with occasional lightning possible. High pressure will build in across the eastern CONUS in the wake of this cold front. This will result in fair weather and minimal severe weather concerns at the end of this week. Weak lee troughing will resume late Friday and into Saturday across the central CONUS. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible along a cold front that will develop and move south. However, moisture will be quite minimal and thus, the severe weather threat will be low. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move across the Midwest and get absorbed into the westerlies. At the same time, a surface cold front will move across the Upper Midwest. Forecast soundings show weak elevated instability along and in the wake of this surface front. This may permit a few lightning flashes across far northern Minnesota and parts of the Michigan Upper Peninsula. Elsewhere, thunderstorm chances will be limited on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from western/central Kansas to the eastern Texas Panhandle, mainly during the afternoon to early evening Monday. ...Synopsis... A cutoff low early Sunday morning across the Southwest will start to be picked up by the westerlies and eventually accelerate east-northeast across the central Plains on Monday. As this occurs, a surface trough will sharpen across the central High Plains. This will draw some low-level moisture northward with mid-50s dewpoints expected into western Kansas by Monday afternoon. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible along this surface trough with the potential for large hail and severe wind gusts. ...Kansas into the eastern TX/OK Panhandles and western Oklahoma... Mid-50s dewpoints along and ahead of a surface trough in the central Plains, combined with cooling temperatures aloft, will result in weak (750-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) instability. Forecast soundings show inhibition eroding between 20Z and 21Z. Around this time, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Mid level flow is forecast to strengthen somewhat during the day and overspread the narrow warm sector. This will result in a wind profile favorable for supercells. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threat from any supercells which develop. Significant directional shear in the lowest 500-1000m will support the potential for a tornado or two, but the weak instability should keep the threat somewhat limited. Any severe threat should wane by late evening as the boundary layer cools and inhibition increases. ..Bentley.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...SUMMARY... A risk for hail, isolated severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two, is forecast across eastern New Mexico from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. ...Eastern New Mexico... 500mb speed max appears to be translating through the base of the trough into the downstream side of the upper low over western NM early this morning. This evolution will finally warrant an ejection of the low into southern CO by the end of the period. Large-scale surface pattern remains favorable for southeasterly boundary-layer flow across the southern High Plains as a dominant surface anticyclone persists downstream from eastern OK into the Middle Atlantic. Deep convection has been common ahead of the upper trough the last few days, especially across NM where longer-lived updrafts/supercells have been observed at times during the late afternoon/early evening. This is once again expected later today as the strongest low-level heating will extend from northern Mexico into the Colorado Plateau and western slopes of the Sacramento Mountains. Cool mid-level temperatures and surface heating will lead to weak inhibition across this region by 20z and thunderstorms should readily develop, subsequently spreading downstream into eastern NM where shear favors some longer-lived updrafts. While the magnitude of instability will not be that strong, lapse rates will be sufficiently steep for robust updrafts and supercells. Greatest risk for strong/severe convection will be from mid-afternoon through mid-evening. Some risk for all hazards is possible across portions of eastern NM. Eastern extent of this activity will drop off sharply due to the influence of drier/more stable low-level air mass over the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Moore.. 10/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for Monday across the country. The upper low currently over northern AZ is forecast to eject into the Plains through the day. While winds across the Plains will be breezy, scattered showers and thunderstorms will limit fire weather concerns. Dry conditions will persist across the West, and localized elevated conditions appear possible in the lee of the Cascades and through the Snake River Plains where terrain-driven winds may approach 15-20 mph. However, such conditions should remain too localized to warrant highlights. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 AM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited for today across the country. The upper-level cutoff low currently over northern AZ is expected to gradually shift east/northeast over the next 24 hours. As this occurs, weak lee troughing along the High Plains, juxtaposed with a stout surface high over the OH River Valley, will strengthen southerly pressure gradient winds over a region with fairly dry fuels. However, modest moisture return across the western Plains will limit RH reductions across the windiest areas. Localized elevated conditions may emerge across central KS to central NE where breezy conditions may overlap with the drier air mass in place across the eastern Plains, but widespread and/or long-lived elevated conditions are not expected. ..Moore.. 10/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Sat Oct 19 2024 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND PARTS OF WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Large hail, severe gusts and some tornado threat remain possible across eastern New Mexico and portions of far West Texas this evening. ...01z Update... Strongest 500mb flow appears to be translating through the base of the trough into western NM early this evening. This speed max will advance into northern NM by the end of the period which will allow the upper low to begin ejecting northeast toward the Four Corners. Even so, negligible height changes will be noted across eastern NM/West TX during the overnight hours. Scattered-numerous thunderstorms have developed ahead of this upper feature with a broken band of strong/severe convection currently extending from near El Paso, northeast into Harding County NM, southwest of Clayton. Several supercells have developed along this corridor which are likely producing hail at/near severe levels, especially Chaves County. 00z soundings from both AMA and MAF exhibited substantial capping in the 700-750mb layer, though mid-level lapse rates are steep. A bit west, uncapped profiles are noted at EPZ and ABQ with strong deep-layer shear evident. Thunderstorms should continue to develop along the leading edge of upper trough/influence where inhibition is weak. Organized structures remain possible and large hail is the primary risk, though gusts and perhaps a tornado or two can not be ruled out this evening. ..Darrow.. 10/20/2024 Read more