SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Mar 23 17:11:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 23 17:11:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z Minor expansions were made to the Elevated area into the Nebraska Panhandle and far eastern Wyoming, and across portions of the southern High Plains, based on the latest high-resolution guidance. In addition, downsloping westerly winds along the Colorado front range will likely produce a few localized areas of elevated fire-weather conditions amid receptive fuels (ERCs 80%-90%). Otherwise, the previous forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. ..Hart/Wendt.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0753 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...Northeast Texas/Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South... The region will be influenced by strengthening cyclonic flow aloft as a shortwave trough takes on a more negative tilt over the upper Mississippi Valley and upper Great Lakes. The moderately strong winds aloft will overlie an increasingly moist air mass (surface dewpoints developing into the 60s F) across the region in advance of an east/southeastward-moving cold front. Destabilization will occur this afternoon ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the Missouri Bootheel, on the southern edge of early day storms. Stronger instability will develop farther south across the Mid-South and ArkLaTex/ArkLaMiss regions with 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely to develop and increase into mid/late afternoon along the length of the front, and potentially just ahead of it within a zone of pre-frontal confluence. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". As low-level moisture increases, deep-layer shear/low-level SRH will support supercells with some tornado risk mainly across the ArkLaMiss/Mid-South. The evolving line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts east-southeastward into northern Alabama and central Mississippi. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/23/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonable agreement with large-scale features through Day 5 (Thursday Mar. 27), during which time overall severe risk should remain generally tempered. A weak surface warm front should lie from northwest-to-southeast across Texas Day 4/Wednesday, with a secondary boundary lying northwest-to-southeast from the northern High Plains to Kansas. However, background ridging over the Rockies/western portions of the Plains should suppress convection to some degree. This, along with modest mid-level flow (generally 20 to 30 kt) expected across the area will limit risk, though a few stronger central/southern High Plains storms may evolve during the afternoon and evening. On Day 5/Thursday, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to undercut the northern-stream ridge, shifting into the southern Plains with time. While overall instability should once again remain limited -- largely due to still-limited moisture return -- a few stronger storms will again be possible during the afternoon and evening. One area of more focused potential for a few storms appears to exist over eastern portions of Nebraska and Kansas near the slowly northward-advancing warm front; a few stronger afternoon storms may also occur across portions of western Texas. Day 6/Friday, models begin to diverge more substantially, with this divergence increasing through the end of the period. Models hint that a stronger trough may begin advancing across the West, and into/across the Plains Days (next weekend). This would be associated with stronger surface development, more robust northward moisture transport, and more favorable flow aloft. Thus, while severe risk appears likely to increase, differences in the models with respect to details of this evolution preclude any confident introduction of risk areas at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OZARK PLATEAU REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Areas affected...Ozark Plateau Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230327Z - 230530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail may accompany storms across the Ozark Plateau the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Weak, low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching southeast KS late this evening. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ is strengthening across central OK into southwest MO. VAD profile from INX/SGF both exhibit intense 0-3 SRH and low-level warm advection will focus ascent across the Ozark Plateau over the next several hours. While moisture is advancing northeast in conjunction with this LLJ, 00z sounding from OUN depicted only 0.82 PW; however, 0-6km lapse rates are very steep and this will aid buoyancy as moisture surges into southern MO. Over the last hour or so, convection has begun to deepen along the nose of the LLJ, and this should continue over the next few hours. Wind profiles favor organized rotating updrafts, and a few supercells may emerge. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield the most MUCAPE, hence hail will be the primary risk with the most robust updrafts. If more organized convection develops, a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474 37059501 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more