MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232229Z - 240100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail is likely and localized wind damage is possible. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts. Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph, resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952 30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198 32379199 31969256 29179825 Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HEZ TO 50 S GLH TO 25 NE GLH. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-009-025-029-033-037-045-047-051-055-057-063-065-071- 075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-117-121- 125-042140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON MADISON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079- 083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-113-121-123-125- 127-129-131-133-147-149-153-155-157-159-163-042140- Read more

WW 63 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 232320Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southen and East-Central Arkansas Northern Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front this evening. Supercells will be capable of producing scattered large hail, with the largest stones potentially reaching up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that form later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Monroe LA to 40 miles south southwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...WW 62... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0062 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 62 SEVERE TSTM TX 232250Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along a cold front through the evening, while posing a threat for mainly scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for strong to severe winds, potentially up to 60-70 mph, will also exist if small clusters can form. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Austin TX to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-232340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-232340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more

WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221- 232340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-232340- Read more

WW 60 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 60 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with these storms. However, sufficient low level shear will pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0060 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...much of central/eastern Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231829Z - 232100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 3-6 PM CDT. This may include a few supercells capable of producing large hail, and perhaps the risk for a tornado or two across western into middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of northwestern Mississippi/southern Kentucky. Trends are being monitored for one or more severe weather watches. DISCUSSION...Latest model output suggests that the primary short wave trough is beginning to pivot northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a less prominent mid-level perturbation, but strongest lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, forecast to continue east-northeastward through the Ohio Valley. It appears that this will include an intensifying southwesterly jet core, in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb, across and northeast of the Kentucky Bluegrass. Within a moistening pre-cold frontal environment trailing this feature, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that flow around 850 mb will tend to veer, but may be maintained in excess of 30-40 kt across western into middle Tennessee through mid to late afternoon, while low-level hodographs undergo more substantive shrinking into central/southern Arkansas. Still, beneath a capping elevated mixed-layer across the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South, the low-level moisture return, coupled with increasing insolation, is contributing to substantive boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include CAPE on the order of 2000 to 1000 J/kg (from southwest to northeast), in the presence of weakening mid-level inhibition, within the next few hours. As the leading edge of cooling aloft gradually overspreads the Mid South toward Ark-La-Tex, guidance indicates that the initiation of scattered, but increasing, thunderstorm development is probable by 20-23Z. Stronger storms will pose a risk for producing large hail. Where low-level hodographs remain more enlarged and clockwise curved, a couple of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes may not be out of the question across northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35689218 36519074 36788681 35588724 34818801 34149045 33839197 33859373 35089314 35689218 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z A small Elevated area was introduced this outlook cycle. The latest high-resolution guidance (mainly HREF/RAP) shows an uptick in the potential for a brief period of wind/RH combos supporting Elevated fire-weather conditions across parts of KS/OK, amid fuels that remain highly receptive to large-fire spread. Otherwise, the balance of the previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern will persist on Tuesday, with an upper ridge over the West and an upper trough over the East. Toward the end of the period, an upper shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast and isolated thunderstorms will be possible as cooling aloft allows for modest destabilization amid increasing southwesterly deep-layer flow. Isolated diurnal thunderstorm activity is also possible across portions of the FL Peninsula where strong heating and modest boundary layer moisture will support at least weak destabilization ahead of a southward sagging front. Large-scale ascent will be weak, limiting storm coverage, but some potential for locally gusty winds will be possible. Across the southern Plains, a surface front will stall in the vicinity of the TX Panhandle, eastward through the Red River Valley and ArkLaTex region. Daytime heating and boundary layer destabilization may be sufficient for a conditional risk of afternoon thunderstorm development. However, large-scale forcing will remain weak and some midlevel inhibition may preclude diurnal thunderstorm activity. Overnight, a modest low-level southwesterly jet will develop beneath increasing northwest flow aloft. Isolated thunderstorms may develop near the surface boundary. Some risk for isolated hail could accompany this activity, but confidence in this scenario is low, precluding severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1207 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper pattern is forecast across the CONUS on Monday, with an upper trough pivoting over the eastern U.S. while an upper ridge builds across the West. A surface cold front is forecast to extend from the central Appalachians southwest into southern MS/AL/LA, and then westward into south-central TX by midday. This front will shift south and east offshore the Atlantic coast into north FL and the northern Gulf by evening, while the TX portion of the front retreats northward during the afternoon and overnight period as a warm front. ...Southeast LA into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Morning thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across the central Gulf coast vicinity into southwest GA and the FL Panhandle ahead of the main surface cold front. Stronger storms may be capable of marginal hail or gusty winds with this initial activity. Another round of thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon along the cold front, depending on degree of heating and airmass recovery in the wake of morning convection. Deep-layer westerly flow will be modest, but increasing speed with height will produce elongated/straight hodographs. Furthermore, cool temperatures aloft (near -15 C at 500 mb) will support midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km, and potential MLCAPE values up to 1000-1500 J/kg. This suggests any afternoon convection that develops could pose a risk for hail. ...TX Hill Country/Edward Plateau vicinity... A conditional severe thunderstorm risk (hail/strong gusts) could exist Monday afternoon if thunderstorms can develop. Low-level moisture will increase as a surface warm front lifts north across the region. However, large-scale ascent will be nebulous at best with no appreciable height falls or shortwave impulses noted across the area. Deep-layer flow also will remain weak. Nevertheless, some CAMs guidance depicts a couple of storms developing during the afternoon/early evening in weak upslope flow. However, NAM and RAP soundings suggest weak capping from 850-700 mb. Coupled with negligible large-scale ascent, this could very well suppress convective development. However, cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support sizable instability (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). Furthermore, strong heating into the 80s F will result in a deeply mixed boundary layer. If a storm can develop, some potential for isolated hail and gusty winds would be possible. The overall risk appears too limited/conditional to include severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 03/23/2025 Read more