SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0450 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 291200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D4 - Thursday. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D7 - Sunday into D8 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time and no areas have been included. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Oct 21 21:00:15 UTC 2024.

WW 0692 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0692 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 692 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 212010Z - 220400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 692 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and Northern Kansas Southern Nebraska * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected to redevelop across the region through late afternoon, initially across northwest/west-central Kansas. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 40 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles northeast of Mccook NE to 30 miles southwest of Medicine Lodge KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1240 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid to upper-level shortwave trough is expected to traverse the Midwest throughout the day Tuesday. An associated cold front will accompany it, with breezy northwesterly surface winds moving down the northern and central Plains during the afternoon. A cooler post-frontal air mass will keep RH above critical thresholds for most locations. However, a narrow corridor of drier conditions/lower RH from northwestern NE into portions of SD may exist where rain did not fall from the previous day. Temporal confidence is not quite high enough to introduce a small Elevated area for this region, though subsequent forecasts may require it depending on the progression of the front and Monday's rainfall footprint. Overall, the fire weather threat should remain relatively low Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 212000Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska through early evening. ...20z Update... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged, with a few strong to severe storms expected this afternoon into early evening across central KS and south-central NE. The outlook has been expanded some on the northwest side near the KS/NE border closer to the surface low/triple point, and over parts of south-central KS, based on latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. For short term details regarding severe thunderstorms and watch potential, reference MCD 2155. ..Leitman.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024/ ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Oct 21 17:51:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough is forecast to be over western IA early Tuesday morning before continuing northeastward throughout the day across the Mid/Upper MS Valley and Upper Great Lakes and becoming absorbed in the stronger westerlies. Isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are possible Tuesday morning ahead of this wave across the Mid MS Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, which should temper updraft strength in most of these storms. However, relatively cool mid-level temperatures and enhanced mid-level flow could result in enough buoyancy and shear for a few instances of small hail. Another shortwave trough is expected to progress through the Canadian Prairies on Tuesday. This shortwave is expected to amplify considerably as it moves into far northwestern Ontario. By 12Z Wednesday, this shortwave is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay through western Ontario and the Upper Midwest. A surface low will precede this system, with an attendant cold front pushing southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Low-level moisture in the vicinity of this front will be minimal, but increasing mid-level moisture coupled with cold mid-level temperatures could still promote enough buoyancy for a few deeper updrafts capable of producing lightning from northern MN into far northern WI and western upper MI. Lastly, a thunderstorm or two appears possible across southern portions of far west TX/TX Big Bend vicinity Tuesday afternoon. Here, some airmass destabilization appears possible amid strong heating, and there could be just enough low-level convergence for convective initiation. Overall coverage in this area is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/21/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... The overall fire weather threat will remain low Monday. A mid to upper-level low will traverse the central Plains during the day, with southerly surface winds increasing from West TX northward into the Upper Midwest. Precipitation chances, cloud cover, and a narrow corridor of increasing low-level moisture, however, will accompany this aforementioned low keeping RH well above critical thresholds. Some areas of minor concern may be from far southeastern KS and southwestern MO, northward into IA where slightly lower RH will coincide with sustained winds near 15 mph and highly receptive fuels. In addition, persistent dry conditions will continue across the West where localized elevated conditions appear possible within the Snake River Plain. Westerly winds may approach 15-20 mph here. These conditions may also extend southward into the northern Great Basin, but should remain too localized to warrant any Elevated areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211630Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains... A compact upper low over eastern CO will track eastward today into the central Plains. As this occurs, an associated surface Pacific cold front / dryline will sweep eastward across KS/northwest OK. The air mass ahead of the front will be moderately moist with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F, along with at least pockets of considerable daytime heating. This will lead to a corridor of potential convective initiation during the peak-heating hours. Most CAM solutions suggest 2-3 mesoscale zones along the boundary where robust storms may form. One is near the weak surface low in southern NE where a few low-topped supercells capable of large hail and perhaps a tornado are possible. Another is in the area of strongest diurnal CAPE in southern KS where hail should be the main concern. The final one is much lower confidence over southwest OK, where only a small minority of CAMs initiate convection. Also expanded marginal wind probabilities northeastward into eastern NE and northeast KS. CAPE will be very limited in this region, but strong insolation will produce steep low-level lapse rates as convection arrives from the west around peak-heating. This might be sufficient for gusty winds in the stronger cells. ..Hart/Gleason.. 10/21/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will cross the central and eastern CONUS on D4/Thursday and D5/Friday with a surface front advancing east through the period. Moisture will remain limited ahead of this front and thus, severe weather is not expected. In the wake of this front, high pressure will build into the Midwest on D6/Saturday and move into the Mid-Atlantic by D7/Sunday. This will result in tranquil weather through the weekend. Extended range guidance does suggest the potential for some return moisture flow by early next week, but there is considerable uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and any potential severe weather threat would likely be after Monday/D8. Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL KS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms with large hail are possible across parts of central Kansas into south central Nebraska, mainly from mid afternoon to early evening. ...Central Plains through this evening... A midlevel low over CO this morning will continue to evolve into an open wave while progressing eastward over KS/NE today to IA/MO overnight. Largely elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a broken band from the TX Panhandle into western KS, in the zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough. Isolated, marginally severe hail and gusty outflow winds will be possible this morning with these storms, given MUCAPE up to 1000 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. In the wake of the morning convection, a narrow corridor of low-level moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints in the 50s) and surface heating will precede the midlevel trough and an associated lee surface trough from the eastern TX Panhandle into western and central KS/NE. A few thunderstorms will be possible along/immediately east of the lee trough by mid-late afternoon this afternoon as convective inhibition diminishes with at least weak ascent. Forecast profiles suggest the potential for isolated supercells capable of producing large hail (1-1.75 inches in diameter), isolated strong outflow gusts of 50-60 mph, and potentially a tornado or two. The severe threat will peak late this afternoon before decreasing near/after sunset as the low levels begin to stabilize and the zone of ascent shifts east of the confined moist sector. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough and surface cold front will move from the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Wednesday. Weak instability is forecast to develop across western New York and vicinity during the afternoon. Shallow convection and a few lightning flashes will be possible along this cold front as it moves quickly across portions of the northeast Wednesday afternoon. A strong, mostly unidirectional wind profile will be present which could cause some gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms. If greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. However, at this time, forecast instability is very weak and thus, no severe weather probabilities are justified. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be absorbed into the broader westerlies on Tuesday as it traverses from the Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes. Some remnant convection is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in the vicinity of this trough across Missouri, but this convection should weaken by mid-day as it moves into drier air. Ridging will start to build in the western CONUS with an extended moderately strong jet-stream from the Oregon/California border to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will traverse the northern Plains during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary, as temperatures cool aloft and forcing increases ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough approaching the area from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Instability will be limited, but may be sufficient for some lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will be absorbed into the broader westerlies on Tuesday as it traverses from the Midwest to the Upper Great Lakes. Some remnant convection is expected to be ongoing Tuesday morning in the vicinity of this trough across Missouri, but this convection should weaken by mid-day as it moves into drier air. Ridging will start to build in the western CONUS with an extended moderately strong jet-stream from the Oregon/California border to the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a strong cold front will traverse the northern Plains during the day. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected along this frontal boundary, as temperatures cool aloft and forcing increases ahead of an amplifying mid-level trough approaching the area from the southern Canadian Prairie Provinces. Instability will be limited, but may be sufficient for some lightning flashes. ..Bentley.. 10/21/2024 Read more