SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 24 17:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE LFT TO 35 E LFT TO 40 ENE LFT TO 40 NE LFT. ..BENTLEY..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 64 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-077-087-089-091-093- 095-103-105-109-117-121-125-241340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC045-047-109-241340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-241340- Read more

WW 64 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 241125Z - 241600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 64 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 625 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Far Southeast Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning from 625 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A well-organized bowing line of storms will continue steadily east-northeastward this morning with wind damage as the primary hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles northwest of Houma LA to 35 miles east southeast of Slidell LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25045. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0064 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE EWN TO 30 N ORF. ..SPC..03/05/25 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 28 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC053-055-095-139-177-052340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CURRITUCK DARE HYDE PASQUOTANK TYRRELL VAC710-810-052340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE NORFOLK VIRGINIA BEACH AMZ131-135-150-152-154-156-230-231-ANZ632-633-634-656-658- 052340- Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0402 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range/global models have come into reasonable agreement with respect to the most recent run, signaling toward heightened severe risk over the upcoming weekend across central portions of the country. Days 4-5 (Thursday/Friday), locally strong storms will be possible across a rather broad portion of the central of the country, from the Upper Midwest to the southern Plains Day 4/Thursday, and the Plains into the Ohio Valley Friday. This will occur as a weak/slow-moving southern stream trough moves slowly east-northeastward across this region. Somewhat limit risk, over a broad geographic area, precludes introduction of any 15% risk areas either of these two days. Meanwhile, the primary synoptic pattern -- even early in the period -- favors a persistent lee surface low/trough over the High Plains. This will allow southerly low-level flow to evolve/expand across almost all of the central and eastern portions of the country as a warm front shifts northward into the northern CONUS. By early Saturday/Day 6, height falls associated with a strengthening trough moving across the Intermountain West should begin to spread into the Plains, with the trough itself currently expected to reach the High Plains. This will result in an eastward advance of a surface low front out of the High Plains and across the central Plains states through the evening/overnight. With a moistening pre-frontal boundary layer ahead of the advancing system, and increasing flow aloft, the overall setup will favor increasing severe potential, with all-hazards possible. Day 7/Sunday, eastward advance of the synoptic-scale features will continue, along with some continued strengthening. With continued moistening of the pre-frontal warm sector supporting afternoon destabilization, along with increasing deep-layer flow, a broad area of severe risk seems likely to evolve -- centered over the Mid and Lower Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Again -- all severe weather hazards would be possible. Monday, the primary focus for convective potential will shift east of the Appalachians. Here, weaker low-level moisture (and thus less robust destabilization potential) is expected at this time. Therefore, while severe risk may evolve, thermodynamic uncertainty precludes initiation of a risk area for Day 8/Monday. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible across portions of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A slowly progressive upper pattern will persist across the U.S. Wednesday, as an eastern U.S. trough continues to advance slowly toward the Atlantic Coast. Upstream, ridging over the interior West will gradually expand into the Plains, while still farther upstream, a second upper trough over the eastern Pacific approaches the northwestern states. At the surface, the primary feature will be a cold front shifting into/across the Pacific Northwest, while the parent occluded low remains offshore through the period. ...Portions of the Northwest... As the eastern Pacific upper low nears the Pacific Northwest Coast, cold air aloft/steep mid-level lapse rates will overspread the area, atop low 50s surface dewpoints. This will combine with afternoon heating to support development of 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE. Meanwhile, the approach of the upper system will also allow deep-layer south-southwesterly flow to increase across the area, allowing shear to become favorable for supporting organized updrafts -- potentially including a few rotating storms. As such, local risk for hail and/or damaging wind gusts may evolve during the afternoon and evening, spreading across parts of Washington and Oregon and possibly into western/northern Idaho by evening. While coverage of the stronger storms should remain rather sparse, the degree of risk appears to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk across this area. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. on Tuesday. ...Discussion... A very slowly progressing upper pattern -- featuring an eastern U.S. trough and a ridge over the interior West -- will persist across the U.S. Tuesday. Through the second half of the period, an eastern Pacific trough is forecast to impinge on the West Coast. At the surface, the primary/remnant surface baroclinic zone -- which will have moved off the eastern seaboard prior to the start of the period, is forecast to trail westward from Florida to Texas. At this time, it appears that showers and a few thunderstorms will affect roughly the southern half of Florida during the afternoon, in the vicinity of the surface front, and near sea-breeze boundaries south of the front. Gusty winds and small hail may occur with one or two of the stronger storms. Farther west, a very conditional risk for isolated storm development appears to exist across central and northern Texas during the afternoon. Steep lapse rates/ample CAPE, but modest flow aloft suggests disorganized storms, but low/conditional risk for near-severe hail and/or wind is apparent. Overnight, elevated convection may develop north of the surface front, over the Oklahoma vicinity. However, modest CAPE suggests that any hail should remain sub-severe. Elsewhere, a few lightning flashes may be possible near Pacific Northwest coastal ranges very late in the period, as the upper trough approaches. Severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN LA...MS...AL AND WESTERN FL/GA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... Amplified mid-level flow will progress across the CONUS as an upper trough moves from the Great Lakes into the Northeast, and a ridge builds steadily over the West. A cold front, trailing from a surface low will advance toward the Atlantic and Gulf Coast before stalling across south-central TX this afternoon. A band of thunderstorms will move southeastward across portions of the Southeast with a risk for marginal damaging gusts and hail. ...Southern LA, to southwest GA and the western FL Panhandle... A band of loosely organized thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing this morning ahead of the increasingly zonal cold front across parts of southern LA, southern GA and the FL Panhandle. Moderate buoyancy and modestly strong westerly flow aloft may support a continued marginal hail and wind risk as these storms approach the Gulf Coast. The most likely area for this appears to be across far southern LA and MS. At least a couple hours of filtered diurnal heating is possible ahead of the band of storms, along with access to somewhat steeper mid-level lapse rates (~7 C/km) from the west. This could support a slight rejuvenation of convection for a few hours, with a risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, storms should move offshore by early afternoon while the front and the remaining unstable air mass stall just inland. Farther east into the Carolinas, the late return of the deeper surface moisture coupled with increasingly poor mid-level lapse rates ahead of the eastward moving cold front suggests buoyancy will not be large (< 500 J/kg MUCAPE). A few storms may still redevelop along the primary surface front, with potential for isolated gusty outflow winds. However, overall severe potential appears quite low given increasingly limited buoyancy. ...South-central TX... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually lift northward, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edwards Plateau and south-central TX. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts. However, this appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and little ascent away from the slow moving surface front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the low conditional risk. ..Lyons/Darrow.. 03/24/2025 Read more