SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0307 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas across northern Missouri and into southern Iowa. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging briefly develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. High pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions there. In association with the Rockies/Plains trough, a cold front will push quickly southeastward across the northern and central Plains, extending roughly from MN into the TX Panhandle by 00Z. Modest boundary-layer moistening will occur with dewpoints in the low to mid 50s F as far north as southwest IA. As the cold front interacts with the narrow plume of instability, at least isolated surface-based storms are anticipated during the late afternoon, trending toward elevated through the evening, from northeast KS into northern MO and IA. Forecast soundings show steepening lapse rates aloft along with veering winds with height, suggesting a supercell, even if elevated, may occur, with hail risk. The favored zone for initiation will be the KS portion of the cold front where low-level lapse rates will be steepest. Overall, the main limiting factor for this event will be moisture quality as lift and shear will be favorable. ..Jewell.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes and into the Northeast during the day, providing strong southwest winds and cooling aloft. Upper ridging will then develop across the Plains as a secondary shortwave trough moves from the Pacific Northwest into the Rockies late. At the surface, high pressure will be centered over the Plains, and into the Southeast, with a cold front moving across the lower Great Lakes and trailing southwestward toward the TN Valley by late afternoon. The tail end of this front will stall across the lower MS Valley and toward the Red River. A few weak thunderstorms are most probable late Wednesday afternoon from parts of New York into western New England, as the cold front interacts with steepening lapse rates and low levels of moisture. Forecast soundings indicate perhaps only 100 J/kg MUCAPE, and as such, severe weather is unlikely. Elsewhere, a low chance of isolated lightning flashes may develop over northeast TX into southeast OK, where heating will be strong near the stalled front. Warm midlevel temperatures and weak forcing will limit the overall coverage. ..Jewell.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low over IA will track northeastward today into the Great Lakes region. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing with this system across IL and will persist for a few more hours. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible over parts of northern MN and southwest TX today. Limited moisture and instability will preclude severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1118 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221630Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low over IA will track northeastward today into the Great Lakes region. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing with this system across IL and will persist for a few more hours. Other isolated thunderstorms will be possible over parts of northern MN and southwest TX today. Limited moisture and instability will preclude severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough over IA/MO will continue eastward toward Lower MI/IN/OH and lose amplitude, while phasing gradually with an upstream trough now over MT. Isolated, elevated thunderstorms will be possible this morning across the middle MS Valley in the zone of ascent. Weak buoyancy and ascent will come out of phase by later this afternoon into tonight, when the threat for thunderstorms will diminish. Farther north, weak convection and isolated lightning flashes may occur across northeast MN in a band of ascent and minimal buoyancy along a cold front this afternoon/evening. Elsewhere, lingering low-level moisture, a subtle midlevel trough, and surface heating over higher terrain could support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon over the Davis Mountains in southwest TX. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/22/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Friday to D7/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D8. This may result in limited inland moisture and instability Monday/D7 and Tuesday D8, particularly if the trough follows some of the more progressive guidance. However, if return flow continues for a longer period before the primary trough ejects, a greater severe weather threat is possible, but it would likely be beyond Tuesday/D8. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not expected on Thursday ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough advances off the East Coast a more zonal pattern will develop across the CONUS. A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within this zonal pattern will move from the Plains to the Midwest with a weak surface low associated with it. Some low-level moisture return is anticipated ahead of this trough and with some elevated thunderstorms possible during the late evening and into the overnight hours as the low-level jet strengthens. Some hail may be possible with this activity, but relatively weak instability should preclude any significant severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. A very dry, continental airmass will remain entrenched across much of the central United States. As a surface ridge slides east toward the Great Lakes, a dry return flow pattern will develop across much of the Plains. At this point, critical fire weather conditions are not expected, but an increase in initial attack may occur. Areas across the Plains will be monitored for potential elevated highlights in later forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated across the contiguous United States today. A surface cold front will move southward across the Plains today in the wake of a mid-level short-wave trough moving northeast toward the Great Lakes. Winds will increase and become gusty behind the front, however, a cooler airmass should allow relative humidity to remain above critical thresholds. ..Marsh.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... A strong shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Hudson Bay through the Upper Great Lakes and Upper Midwest early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to make steady eastward progress throughout the day, traversing across Ontario and Quebec as well as the Great Lakes and Northeast states. A cold front will accompany this system, moving just ahead of the upper trough. Current expectation is that this front will progress across the Northeast from 21Z through 03Z. Low-level moisture preceding this front across the Northeast will be modest (i.e. upper 40s/low 50s dewpoints), limiting buoyancy and likely keeping most of the convection along and ahead of the front shallow. A few deeper cores could result in isolated lightning flashes. Additionally, robust low to mid-level westerly flow could result in a few stronger, convectively augmented gusts within the deeper cores in the strongly forced convective line. Currently, minimal buoyancy and shallow nature to the convection along and ahead of the front is expected to limit the coverage of any damaging gusts. However, if greater instability and more robust convection can develop, some damaging wind gusts could be possible with this strongly forced convection. Trends within the guidance will be monitored closely to determine if low severe probabilities will be needed in later outlooks. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from the Red River into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas where the tail end of the cold front will move into an airmass with weak to moderate instability during the afternoon/evening. However, a relatively thin instability profile and weak shear should mitigate any severe weather threat. ..Bentley.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...North-central States... Primary thunder potential should occur through about midday in association with a shortwave trough progressing from the Mid-MO Valley to the central Great Lakes. Despite dampening of this wave, sufficient forcing for ascent amid weak elevated buoyancy should yield at least isolated storms centered on the Mid-MS Valley. Modest cloud-bearing shear within the high-based/low-topped convective profile should mitigate severe potential. Farther west-northwest, an upstream shortwave trough will amplify across the Prairie Provinces into the northern Upper Midwest. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur within the attendant warm conveyor ahead of this wave, during the morning into the afternoon. Scant elevated buoyancy will limit storm coverage. Surface-based thunderstorms are unlikely at peak heating along the cold front sweeping east, as boundary-layer moisture is expected to be inadequate for supporting lightning production. ...TX Trans-Pecos... Despite a very weak tropospheric flow regime, a plume of modestly enriched lower-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated, pulse thunderstorms during the late afternoon over the higher terrain near the Big Bend. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Mon Oct 21 2024 Valid 220100Z - 221200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL NE TO WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts may persist for a few more hours from parts of southern Nebraska to western Oklahoma. ...NE/KS/OK... Primary severe threat should remain in the form of marginal hail through about 03-04Z before further waning in the late evening. Low to mid-level wind fields surrounding a compact shortwave trough over south-central NE are expected to dampen somewhat as the wave tracks into IA overnight. More robust convection has been confined near the north-central KS/south-central NE border area. This activity will spread away from the nearly stationary surface-based instability plume, as it shifts eastward during the next couple hours. Convection farther south has struggled to greatly intensify ahead of the dryline, and the temporal window for more robust development to occur is closing. Overnight, an arc of decaying elevated convection is largely anticipated as activity spreads into parts of IA/MO. ..Grams.. 10/22/2024 Read more