WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW SAT TO 40 NW BAZ TO 25 W AUS TO 25 SW TPL TO 30 S CRS TO 35 SW TYR TO 10 SSW TYR TO 20 NW GGG. ..JEWELL..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...HGX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 62 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-019-021-027-029-041-051-055-091-145-161-185-187-209-225- 259-287-289-293-313-331-395-453-455-471-477-491-240340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BANDERA BASTROP BELL BEXAR BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COMAL FALLS FREESTONE GRIMES GUADALUPE HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LEE LEON LIMESTONE MADISON MILAM ROBERTSON TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WASHINGTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE GLH TO 35 E TUP TO 40 SW HSV. ..SPC..03/24/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC057-075-093-107-127-133-240340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAYETTE LAMAR MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC017-240340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-240340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE RICHLAND TENSAS WEST CARROLL Read more

WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0802 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Large hail and damaging gusts will continue tonight across portions of central and eastern TX, the lower MS/TN Valleys and into parts of AL. A tornado or two will also be possible. ...Synopsis... Evening water vapor imagery shows a strong upper trough moving over the western Great Lakes, with a weak secondary vort max extending south into the lower MS Valley and central TX. At the surface, a diffuse cold front was slowly trailing southwest from a 998 mb low over southern WI. The front will continue to sag southeastward tonight from the lower OH Valley to central TX. Ahead of the front a warm and moist air mass was supporting scattered thunderstorms from central TX, across the mid/lower MS Valley and into the lower OH/TN Valley. ...ArkLaMiss and western AL... Numerous supercells are ongoing from eastern LA and AR into central and northern MS. The CAPE/SHEAR space (~2000 J/kg MLCAPE and > 40 kt bulk shear) strongly supports severe hail with a number of severe MESH cores and reports already observed. Some hail near 2 inches in diameter also appears possible with the more robust supercells. This should continue for another couple of hours before these storms gradually congeal into one or more clusters/broken lines. As that complex shifts east, the risk for hail damaging winds will gradually move into eastern MS and parts of southern TN western AL tonight. While less clear currently, low level shear should also gradually intensify with a southwesterly 30-35 kt low-level jet across northern MS southern TN and northwest AL. Area RAP sounding show around 150-200 m2/s2 of 0-1 km SRH and enlarged low-level hodographs with time. While moisture remains limited with eastward extent, a tornado or two will remain possible with any more dominant supercells, or stronger bowing segments that evolve. ...Central and east TX... Ahead of the front, a broad plume of warm surface temperatures, steep mid-level lapse rates and mid to upper 60s F dewpoints extends southwest to northeast from roughly Austin/San Antonio the Sabine Valley. Splitting supercells have already developed and should continue to expand northeastward along the front trough this evening. Strong deep-layer wind profiles and 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE will support a wind and hail risk (some 2-2.5 inch) as scattered storms evolve and gradually grow upscale with the sagging front. ...TN/KY... Northwest of the primary convective band over the lower MS Valley, scattered storms were ongoing along the cold front from southwest KY into northern TN. Gradual upscale growth has been noted, and should continue tonight with veered low-level flow ahead of the southeastward moving front. Low-level shear is slightly stronger, but more limited buoyancy and moisture have thus far limited severe intensity. A few stronger storms remain possible with the intensifying low-level jet tonight, with a risk for damaging gusts, hail and a tornado or two. ..Lyons.. 03/24/2025 Read more

MD 0256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR CENTRAL INTO EASTERN TEXAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0256 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0529 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...central into eastern Texas...northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 232229Z - 240100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms are likely to form along the cold front from southern Arkansas southwestward toward San Antonio. Large hail is likely and localized wind damage is possible. DISCUSSION...Relatively strong instability has developed ahead of the cold front, owing to strong heating, steep lapse rates aloft and dewpoints in the 60s F. Objective analysis indicates MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg, which will certainly support robust updrafts. Effective deep-layer shear is averaging around 40 kt over northern areas, with a bit weaker flow over parts of TX. However, as storms develop, they will likely propagate rightward off the hodograph, resulting in clusters of severe storms. Spotty reports of 2.00" hail appear likely across the region with the strongest cells. The entire threat area is expected to remain within a relatively narrow southwest-northeast zone, though a gradual southward propagation is expected. As such, much of the area is being considered for a severe thunderstorm watch. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29179825 29089917 29389961 29789976 30099967 30299952 30789859 31289752 31949617 33579287 33459225 33059198 32379199 31969256 29179825 Read more

WW 0063 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW HEZ TO 50 S GLH TO 25 NE GLH. ..SUPINIE..03/04/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...JAN...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 21 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-009-025-029-033-037-045-047-051-055-057-063-065-071- 075-077-087-089-091-093-095-097-099-101-103-105-107-109-117-121- 125-042140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION AVOYELLES CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFAYETTE LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON MADISON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES POINTE COUPEE ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TENSAS TERREBONNE WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-007-015-019-021-023-025-029-031-035-037-039-041-043- 045-047-049-051-053-055-059-061-063-065-067-069-073-075-077-079- 083-085-087-089-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-113-121-123-125- 127-129-131-133-147-149-153-155-157-159-163-042140- Read more

WW 63 SEVERE TSTM AR LA TX 232320Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 63 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 620 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southen and East-Central Arkansas Northern Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 620 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop along and ahead of a cold front this evening. Supercells will be capable of producing scattered large hail, with the largest stones potentially reaching up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that form later this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Monroe LA to 40 miles south southwest of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61...WW 62... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0062 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0062 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 62 SEVERE TSTM TX 232250Z - 240600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 62 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 550 PM until 100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to continue developing along a cold front through the evening, while posing a threat for mainly scattered large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter. Some risk for strong to severe winds, potentially up to 60-70 mph, will also exist if small clusters can form. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west of Austin TX to 70 miles north northeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60...WW 61... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0061 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 61 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...HUN...BMX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 61 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC033-057-059-075-077-079-083-093-107-127-133-232340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COLBERT FAYETTE FRANKLIN LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MARION PICKENS WALKER WINSTON ARC003-017-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ASHLEY CHICOT LAC025-029-035-041-065-067-083-107-123-232340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CATAHOULA CONCORDIA EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN MADISON MOREHOUSE Read more

WW 61 SEVERE TSTM AL AR LA MS 232205Z - 240500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 61 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northwest Alabama Southeast Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central Mississippi * Effective this Sunday afternoon from 505 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing large to very large hail around 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter are expected to develop and spread eastward through the evening. Damaging winds up to 60-70 mph may also occur, especially if convection can develop into a line. A tornado or two also appears possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 30 miles east southeast of Natchez MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 60... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 60 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..03/23/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 60 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC035-037-077-093-107-111-123-232340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRITTENDEN CROSS LEE MISSISSIPPI PHILLIPS POINSETT ST. FRANCIS KYC007-033-035-039-047-075-083-105-139-143-145-157-219-221- 232340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALLARD CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CHRISTIAN FULTON GRAVES HICKMAN LIVINGSTON LYON MCCRACKEN MARSHALL TODD TRIGG MSC003-009-013-017-027-033-057-071-081-093-095-107-115-117-119- 135-137-139-141-143-145-161-232340- Read more

WW 60 TORNADO AR KY MO MS TN 232015Z - 240400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 60 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Southwest Kentucky Missouri Bootheel Northern Mississippi Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to intensify this afternoon over eastern Arkansas and spread eastward across the watch area through the evening. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concern with these storms. However, sufficient low level shear will pose some risk of a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Memphis TN to 45 miles southeast of Clarksville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25030. ...Hart Read more

WW 0060 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0060 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARKANSAS...NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI...WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0254 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Areas affected...much of central/eastern Arkansas...northwestern Mississippi...western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 231829Z - 232100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered intensifying thunderstorm development appears increasingly probable through 3-6 PM CDT. This may include a few supercells capable of producing large hail, and perhaps the risk for a tornado or two across western into middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of northwestern Mississippi/southern Kentucky. Trends are being monitored for one or more severe weather watches. DISCUSSION...Latest model output suggests that the primary short wave trough is beginning to pivot northeast of the lower Missouri Valley through the upper Mississippi Valley. This is preceded by a less prominent mid-level perturbation, but strongest lower/mid-tropospheric wind fields, forecast to continue east-northeastward through the Ohio Valley. It appears that this will include an intensifying southwesterly jet core, in excess of 50 kt around 850 mb, across and northeast of the Kentucky Bluegrass. Within a moistening pre-cold frontal environment trailing this feature, Rapid Refresh forecast soundings indicate that flow around 850 mb will tend to veer, but may be maintained in excess of 30-40 kt across western into middle Tennessee through mid to late afternoon, while low-level hodographs undergo more substantive shrinking into central/southern Arkansas. Still, beneath a capping elevated mixed-layer across the Ark-La-Tex into Mid South, the low-level moisture return, coupled with increasing insolation, is contributing to substantive boundary-layer destabilization. It appears that this may include CAPE on the order of 2000 to 1000 J/kg (from southwest to northeast), in the presence of weakening mid-level inhibition, within the next few hours. As the leading edge of cooling aloft gradually overspreads the Mid South toward Ark-La-Tex, guidance indicates that the initiation of scattered, but increasing, thunderstorm development is probable by 20-23Z. Stronger storms will pose a risk for producing large hail. Where low-level hodographs remain more enlarged and clockwise curved, a couple of supercells with potential to produce tornadoes may not be out of the question across northwestern Mississippi through western and middle Tennessee and adjacent portions of southern Kentucky. ..Kerr/Hart.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 35689218 36519074 36788681 35588724 34818801 34149045 33839197 33859373 35089314 35689218 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0302 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS on D3/Tuesday will shift east, while an upper-level ridge over the western CONUS expands and shifts eastward through D6/Friday. Medium-range guidance suggests a weak short-wave trough will accompany the weak flow regime within the translating ridge, overspreading the southern High Plains on D5/Thursday. Thereafter, guidance suggests a stronger mid-level short-wave trough will enter the West and translate quickly eastward into the southern/central Plains on D6/Friday and lasting through D7/Saturday. However, medium-range guidance diverges considerably after D5/Thursday, resulting in large uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the second trough evolution. ...D5/Thursday... The aforementioned weak mid-level trough along with southerly return flow may result isolated dry thunderstorm potential across areas of New Mexico. With low predictability in the extended range, no probabilities have been introduced, though ERCs in this region range from 70%-90% and the overall pattern in the coming days will support continued drying of fuels. ...D6/Friday - D7/Saturday... Widespread critical fire-weather conditions appear possible across portions of the southern High Plains as a second/stronger mid-level trough enters the region. As noted, predictability of the evolving mid-level trough remains somewhat low, with still considerable disagreement among GFS/ECMWF 12z guidance. However, the overall pattern evident suggests lee cyclogenesis is probable in this time frame across the southern High Plains, and guidance is suggestive of potential for higher-end probabilities across more expansive areas on both days. For now a small area of 40% probabilities has been introduced on D7/Saturday, confined to the region exhibiting the most agreement at this time. Adjustments are likely in later outlooks as timing/evolution details become more certain. ..Karstens.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts are the main hazards, but a couple of tornadoes could also occur. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the 5-percent tornado probabilities were expanded slightly northward across western into middle TN, where surface temperatures are gradually warming into the middle/upper 60s to near 70 amid lower 60s dewpoints. RAP forecast soundings suggest this will support surface-based storms into this evening, and given ample low-level SRH, the higher probabilities are warranted. Reference MCD #254 for details on the near-term severe risk. ..Weinman.. 03/23/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025/ ...Lower MS Valley... A strong upper trough is passing across the Midwest states today, with a 90+ knot mid level jet over IL. To the south of this feature, southwesterly low-level winds are transporting Gulf moisture northward, with 60s dewpoints now into southeast AR. As continued daytime heating/mixing and moisture advection occur, sufficient destabilization will result in scattered thunderstorm development by mid afternoon across eastern AR/west TN/western KY. These storms will be in an environment of moderately-steep mid-level lapse rates and CAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear will promote rotating storms, but veered and slowly weakening low-level winds suggest that large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary concern. Storms will track eastward into middle TN by early evening, while building southward into parts of LA/MS. Progressively more moist/unstable air farther south may aid a greater concern for a few tornadoes during the evening. Activity is expected to affect parts of northeast AL before weakening in the 03-05z period. ...East TX... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front pushing into north-central TX. This boundary will continue southward through the day, with strong heating and ample low-level moisture in the warm sector to the south of the front. CAM solutions are in strong agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form along and south of the front by early evening. Forecast soundings show sufficient vertical shear for organized/supercell storms capable of large hail. Read more