SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and DCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were necessary and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0721 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Upper OH Valley into western NY this evening... A midlevel shortwave trough over the upper MS Valley this morning will progress east-southeastward to NY/PA and the Mid-Atlantic by the end of the period. Ascent preceding the midlevel trough and an associated surface cold front could support some shallow convective showers late this afternoon/evening from northeast OH to western NY. However, marginal low-level moisture and minimal buoyancy suggest that thunderstorms are unlikely. ...Northern AR to central OK this afternoon... Boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F and surface heating will drive surface-based buoyancy this afternoon along a slow-moving front from northern AR into central OK. Thermodynamic profiles suggest some potential for deep convection, but forcing for ascent will remain shallow/weak at best. Overall, thunderstorm potential appears too limited for an outlook area. ..Thompson/Goss.. 10/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Saturday to D6/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D7. Limited moisture may surge northward on Tuesday/D7 and Wednesday/D8 with some thunderstorms possible. However, there is no clear signal for severe weather at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe weather concerns will be minimal D4/Saturday to D6/Monday as a mid-level trough amplifies across the Northeast and a strong surface high pressure center moves across the eastern CONUS in its wake. By late in the weekend to early next week, lee troughing will return to the Plains as a trough traverses the western CONUS. There is still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and evolution of this trough, but in general, there is a consistent signal for a strong trough to eject out of the western CONUS in the early to middle part of next week. Dry air has infiltrated the northern Gulf of Mexico this week with consistent east-northeasterly flow reinforcing this more continental airmass through the weekend. Richer low-level moisture is not forecast to return to the entire Gulf Basin until Tuesday/D7. Limited moisture may surge northward on Tuesday/D7 and Wednesday/D8 with some thunderstorms possible. However, there is no clear signal for severe weather at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. A cold front will weaken as it moves into the Ohio and Mid-Mississippi Valleys on Friday. Scattered thunderstorms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period and persist through at least the morning before the low-level jet veers/weakens and storms move east of the better low-level moisture. A few pockets of instability may remain along the remnant frontal boundary, but the lack of larger scale forcing amid increasing heights should limit overall convective coverage in what will already be a weakly unstable environment. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MUCH OF IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail on Thursday from far northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... On Thursday, a progressive upper trough will move from the central and northern Rockies into the Plains, as upper ridging develops from the OH Valley into the Northeast. Surface high pressure will be in place over much of the East in the wake of the previous days cold front, providing generally stable conditions. Lee troughing and an associated cold front associated with the mid-level trough will traverse the central Plains Thursday afternoon and move into portions of the Midwest by the evening. Some low-level moisture will advect northward ahead of the cold front, but will mix out as it does with only minimal surface-based instability expected. A few storms may develop during the afternoon along this front, but will likely struggle to be severe due to the limited instability. Once the 1 to 2 km layer starts to moisten after 00Z in response to a strengthening low-level jet and mid-level temperatures start to cool, more substantial elevated instability is expected. Sufficient forcing due to isentropic ascent and dCVA will support some elevated convection during the evening and into the early overnight hours. Moderate instability and 30 to 35 knots of effective shear may support a few supercells capable of large hail. ..Bentley.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated on Wednesday. A surface high pressure will move across the central United States today in the wake of a departing mid-level shortwave. This will reinforce the dry airmass entrenched across the central U.S. However, slightly cooler temperatures, especially as you go farther north, will act to limit relative humidity from falling low enough to support critical fire weather conditions. Across the Northeast, gusty winds will develop ahead of an approaching cold front. Despite these strong, gusty winds (perhaps gusting up to 30 mph), relative humidity should remain sufficiently high (around 40%) to prevent the need for highlights. ..Marsh.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears negligible today through tonight. ...Lower Great Lakes to northern New England... A broad mid/upper-level trough will progress across parts of southeast Canada and over the Great Lakes into the Northeast by Thursday morning. Large-scale ascent will remain on the modest side along an attendant surface cold front moving similarly eastward. Moisture return ahead of it will be rather limited, and MUCAPE should only peak around 100 J/kg. These factors suggest that while a brief thunderstorm or two is possible, overall thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent. ...Central AR to southeast OK... The trailing portion of the aforementioned cold front will sag south and eventually stall, where it will intercept a plume of moderate boundary-layer moisture characterized by mean mixing ratios around 12 g/kg. Pockets of weak low-level convergence could support shallow convective attempts by late afternoon. While a brief thunderstorm is plausible, the lack of forcing for ascent beyond the stalled front and persistent warm/dry mid-levels suggest thunder probabilities are less than 10 percent. ..Grams/Marsh.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Discussion... Thunderstorms that occurred this afternoon near the TX Big Bend have waned and will further diminish shortly with acceleration of nocturnal cooling. Sporadic elevated thunderstorms associated with a dampening shortwave impulse moving into Lower MI appear to have finally ceased, with more rapid decaying of this impulse expected. A broader, upstream shortwave trough will further amplify into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes. This should strengthen forcing for ascent along and to the rearward side of a surface cold front sweeping east. Most models depict scant elevated buoyancy developing across parts of the U.P. of MI into northern WI/Lower MI. This may be adequate for very isolated thunderstorms as ascent strengthens later tonight, which appears to be supported by 23Z HRRR/RRFS runs. ..Grams.. 10/23/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Oct 22 22:14:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Oct 22 22:14:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended. High pressure will build in across the CONUS through the mid to late week, with occasional shortwave progression across the northern periphery bringing a more zonal westerly flow pattern across the Rockies. This may bring potential for breezy conditions across portions of the northern and central Plains, primarily on D3 - Thursday. A period of Elevated to Critical winds and relative humidity will be possible in the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. Recent rainfall has left fuels in this region less receptive to fire spread. Elsewhere, confidence in any areas of widespread relative humidity reductions overlapping winds remains limited at this time. A deeper trough may impact the CONUS late in the period D6 - Sunday into D7 - Monday bringing a potential increase in winds but also potential for cooler/wetter conditions. Areas across southern Arizona will remain dry and may see a period of Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions on D7 - Monday. This area may need highlights as confidence increases in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 10/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today through tonight. ...20z Update... The general thunderstorm areas have been removed from northern MN and the IL vicinity as lightning probabilities are expected to rapidly diminish over the next 1-2 hours. A few flashes are still possible across the TX Big Bend vicinity into early evening. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 10/22/2024 Read more