SPC Mar 24, 2025 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast from southeast Louisiana to Florida Panhandle... A relatively fast-moving (45-50 kt) bowing complex continues east-northeastward early this morning across south-central/southeast Louisiana toward the far southern Mississippi border vicinity. Strong rear-inflow/MCV characteristics are readily apparent in observational data including regional WSR-88D VWP winds. A 68kt/78 mph wind gust was recently measured at Baton Rouge, LA near/north of the apex of the bowing complex. This cluster of storms should continue to produce potentially severe wind gusts this morning, although its northern extent may increasingly be hostilely influenced by southward-sagging convective outflow/effective front that precedes it. Regardless, some severe-wind potential may persist into the afternoon, particularly in areas that are within roughly 50-80 miles of the Gulf coast. ...South-central Texas... As the cold front stalls and begins to gradually return northward later today, strong diurnal heating and deep surface moisture could support very isolated storm development across the higher terrain of the Edward Plateau and south-central Texas. Area RAP soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates (~8 C/km) and 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which could support a conditional severe risk for hail and damaging gusts if storms were to develop. However, this currently appears unlikely given subtle mid-level height rises and limited ascent away from the slow-moving front. As such, probabilities will continue to be withheld given the relatively low/conditional nature of the risk. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/24/2025 Read more