Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... High pressure will dominate the surface pattern across the eastern CONUS on Sunday. Strong lee troughing will begin across the central CONUS early next week as a large mid-level trough shifts across the western CONUS. There is consistency among extended range guidance for a strong ridge to build across the eastern CONUS which will result in a positively tilted mid-level trough with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. As these advect through the flow, several surface lows will move from the Plains to the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes next week. Initially, surface moisture will be lacking across the Plains, but by the middle of the week Day7/Wednesday, the continued southerly flow will result in better low-level moisture with 60sF dewpoints potentially as far north as the Midwest with mid 60s dewpoints into the southern Plains. Once more robust low-level moisture moves inland and interacts with the sharp surface front/trough, thunderstorms will be possible. Once this moisture is in place, severe weather will become more possible from Day7/Wednesday and beyond. At this time it is unclear how the evolution of these individual shortwave troughs will occur which will impact severe weather potential. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Minimal or no thunderstorm activity is expected across the CONUS on Saturday. High pressure will dominate the pattern across the country on Saturday. A diffuse remnant front is expected from the Ozarks to the Carolinas during the day with some weak instability possible to its south where mid to upper 50s dewpoints are possible. However, forcing for ascent will be quite weak and therefore, minimal or no thunderstorm activity is anticipated. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire weather concerns a not anticipated across the contiguous United States. A surface cold front will continue to push east through the central United States and into the Ohio Valley on Friday. In the wake of this front, gusty northerly winds will reinforce a dry airmass in place across the Plains. Cooler conditions behind the front will result in slightly higher relative humidity values than the day before, which should somewhat constrain the overall large-scale fire weather threat. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions will be likely across portions of the Southern Plains this afternoon within a relatively dry return flow regime. Elsewhere, locally elevated fire weather conditions may develop across portions of southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic region. ... Southern Plains ... A weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to lee cyclogenesis. The result will be strong, gusty southerly surface winds in the presence of near-record high temperatures. Although model forecasts suggest relative humidity will only fall into the upper 20s to low 30s, the combination of ongoing drought and receptive fuels should more than compensate. Additionally, surface moisture appears to be rather shallow and may be susceptible to mixing out. If this happens, relative humidity may be considerably lower than forecast, resulting in an increase in potential for extreme fire behavior. ... Southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic Region ... Strong, gusty winds will develop ahead of a surface trough. Warm afternoon temperatures will allow minimum relative humidity to fall into the 30s and 40s -- locally lower. The result may be a couple of hours in the afternoon with locally elevated fire conditions. ..Marsh.. 10/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... CORRECTED FOR MISSING HAZARD GRAPHICS LABELS ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weakening cold front. Here, some weak instability may develop during the afternoon with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. Some convergence along the front and neutral height tendencies aloft may support some thunderstorms early in the day before frontal convergence weakens and heights increase later in the day and the thunderstorm threat likely wanes. ..Bentley.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... A few storms may produce hail and gusty winds from northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska across northern Missouri and into much of Iowa. ...Northeast Kansas to Iowa... Strong short-wave trough is currently progressing across the Pacific Northwest and should advance quickly into western WY/eastern UT by sunrise. This feature will dig a bit southeast into the central High Plains by late afternoon, then into the lower MO Valley by 25/12z. As the short wave approaches the Plains, LLJ should respond then focus across northeast KS into central IA shortly after peak heating. Latest model guidance suggests this dynamic system will encourage a warm front to advance north and extend from southeast NE into western MO prior to a cold front surging into this region. Current thinking is the strongest surface heating should be noted from the TX Panhandle into northeast KS where 0-3km lapse rates are expected to steepen such that CINH will be negligible by 22z. While absolute values of PW are not expected to be that high, mid 50s surface dew points may be common across the warm sector over eastern KS. This should yield MLCAPE values near 1000 J/kg where temperatures rise into the mid 80s. While scattered convection is expected to develop along the surging cold front, low-level warm advection is expected to aid initial development along the nose of the LLJ across IA. Forecast soundings exhibit favorably strong veering winds with height and ample shear for sustained, rotating updrafts. It would appear some supercell threat is possible and convection that develops near the steeper low-level lapse rate plume could generate gusty winds. Otherwise, some risk for hail should accompany elevated updrafts north of the warm front, along with warm sector storms. Some consideration was given to a SLGT Risk for hail, and this may still be warranted if sufficient severe coverage is anticipated. ..Darrow/Marsh.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat remains low through tonight. ...01z Update... Strong positive-tilt short-wave trough is ejecting across the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley region. At the surface, a seasonally strong cold front has advanced into central NY-western PA-southern OH. This flow regime allowed a corridor of weak instability to develop ahead of the front where low-level lapse rates steepened as temperatures warmed through the upper 60s to near 70F. As a result, weak convection developed along/ahead of the wind shift, and a few updrafts penetrated levels necessary for lightning discharge. 00z sounding from PIT supports this with SBCAPE on the order of 300 J/kg and EL temperature near -30C. However, nocturnal cooling should lead to weakening lapse rates and instability. While a few flashes may linger for the next hour or so, most convection should remain too shallow thereafter to produce significant lightning. ..Darrow.. 10/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z Upper-level ridging will amplify briefly over the West late this week into the weekend before an upper-level trough breaks down the ridge this weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will stretch from the Deep South and Gulf Coast across much of the central and western US ahead of the upper-level trough. Deep upper-level troughing will move into the Great Lakes and Northeast this weekend into early next week further amplifying the upper-level pattern over the CONUS. ...Day 3/Friday... Dry/breezy post-frontal conditions are likely on portions of the southern/central Plains into the Midwest Day 3/Friday, but unlikely to meet critical criteria, with locally elevated conditions the most likely outcome. Recent and forecast rainfall will also help mitigate these fire weather concerns. ...Day 5/Sunday - Day 7/Tuesday... Dry/windy conditions are likely to develop across portions of the Great Basin Day 5/Sunday ahead of the upper-level trough. However, current forecast guidance indicates that these conditions are likely to overlap areas that received precipitation recently. On Day 6/Sunday, critical winds/RH are forecast across areas with dry fuels in southern Arizona/vicinity that missed the recent precipitation event. More widespread critical winds/RH are forecast on Day 6/Monday - Day 7/Tuesday from the southern Great Basin through the Southwest onto portions of the southern/central High Plains into the Midwest. However, recent rainfall and fuels conditions are currently precluding larger or additional 40% outlook areas. Additionally, there remains some uncertainty regarding the latitude and timing of the trough, which affects the moisture return, downslope winds, and dryline placement on the southern/central Plains. Above normal temperatures, low RH, and periods of breezy winds are forecast between now and this weekend, which could cure fuels enough to expand and add probabilities of critical conditions in future outlooks. Late in the outlook period, there is potential for northerly/offshore winds across portions of California. However, there remains too much uncertainty to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm chances remain low through tonight, and no changes are needed for the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms remain unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... Thunderstorm chances remain low through tonight, and no changes are needed for the 20z update. ..Leitman.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough will continue moving eastward today from the Great Lakes to the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. A related surface cold front will likewise advance eastward across these areas, with shallow convection possible along its length. Limited low-level moisture and poor lapse rates aloft will likely hinder the development of sufficient instability to support charge separation and lightning. Very isolated convection may also develop late this afternoon through tonight across parts of the Ozarks, along/near the southern flank of the surface cold. Although some low-level moisture and instability will be present along/south of the front, large-scale ascent is forecast to remain minimal across this region. Accordingly, overall thunderstorm chances still appear less than 10% through the end of the period. Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Oct 23 19:45:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Oct 23 19:45:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe thunderstorms are expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... Minimal thunderstorms will occur across the CONUS on Friday, with high pressure over much of the Plains and East. The exception will be from the Ozarks into the OH Valley where a narrow plume of low 60s F dewpoints will exist ahead of a weak cold front. Here, a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE may develop during the afternoon, with weak lift possibly aiding isolated thunderstorm activity. The most favorable large-scale ascent will be during the first half of the day in association with a shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. Thereafter, lift becomes quite weak. ..Jewell.. 10/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 PM CDT Wed Oct 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z Dry return flow ahead of an approaching cold front will result in elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in portions of Oklahoma, Kansas, and the Texas Panhandle tomorrow. Latest high-resolution guidance indicates higher dewpoints will return to portions of eastern Oklahoma, eastern Kansas, and western Missouri than previously forecast, leading to a westward shift of the Elevated area. While RH will be around elevated criteria, temperatures will be well above normal in addition to the strong southerly winds across portions of the southern/central Plains. Areas farther west in Kansas and Texas were not included due to recent rainfall. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are likely in portions of eastern Colorado behind the cold front, but recent rainfall should mitigate concerns. ..Nauslar.. 10/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 PM CDT Tue Oct 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale critical fire-weather conditions are currently not anticipated on Thursday. However, elevated-to-locally-critical fire-weather conditions may develop across portions of the Southern Plains. Here, a weak frontal boundary will weaken and dissipate in response to a developing lee cyclone. Strong, gusty southerly winds will take hold by the afternoon, with winds gusting around 30 mph at times. Additionally, residual circulations associated with the dissipating surface front will help drive afternoon high temperatures to near record levels. Given the long-term drought and extremely receptive fuels, an Elevated Risk was introduced despite forecast relative humidity around 30%. Given the potential for strong vertical mixing, relative humidity will have to potential to fall much lower than models currently suggest. An increase in initial attack and the potential for significant wild fires across the Southern Plains will continue to be evaluated with subsequent forecasts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more