SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Synopsis... Slow progression of the upper pattern -- a general western ridge/eastern trough configuration -- is expected Wednesday. Upstream, an eastern Pacific trough/low will strengthen as it nears the Pacific Northwest Coast. At the surface, a rather ill-defined baroclinic zone will extend from Florida to Texas. Meanwhile, a cold front -- associated with a deepening/occluded low off the coast -- will shift into the Pacific Northwest through the day. ...Pacific Northwest... Ahead of the cold front forecast to move eastward across the area during the afternoon and evening, daytime heating of a modestly moist boundary layer will result in at least marginal destabilization. Questions persist regarding the degree of low-level moisture, which will likely modulate storm development and subsequent intensity. With that said, diffluent flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low, and increasingly strong southerly deep-layer flow would otherwise suggest a favorable setup for isolated severe storms. At this time, will maintain 5%/MRGL risk for hail/wind, as low-level flow/shear should remain weak. However, the favorable overall setup could yield greater coverage/risk than currently indicated, and thus modifications in subsequent outlooks may be needed. ...Far West Texas vicinity... A dry/capped airmass and weak shear is expected across the Permian Basin/Transpecos Region/Davis Mountains. However, presuming an isolated storm or two can develop near the dryline, steep lapse rates aloft would suggest potential for briefly intense updrafts. Any storm which would develop could produce hail/wind, but any risk is highly conditional and does not appear to warrant inclusion of a risk area at this time. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma into central Texas. ...Southern FL Peninsula... Upper trough is firmly established over the eastern U.S. early this morning. Along the southern fringe of this wave, a low-latitude short-wave trough is digging east-southeast toward the southern FL Peninsula. Latest model guidance suggests seasonally cool mid-level temperatures will spread across this region with -13C at 500mb forecast by mid day as surface temperatures warm into the lower 80s. Early-afternoon soundings exhibit substantial SBCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates. While wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could be robust. Gusty winds, and perhaps some hail could be noted with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma/North Central-Central TX... Large-scale pattern is not forecast to change appreciably during the upcoming day1 period as ridging will dominate the western U.S. Northwesterly flow will be noted across the Plains and any embedded disturbances are currently weak and not particularly evident. Even so, while heights will gradually rise across this region, 2km wind field will gradually strengthen over the southern High Plains and some increase in PW is expected along the I35 corridor from central TX into southern OK by 26/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected west of I35 and convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s. Most HREF members suggest isolated, relatively high-based convection will evolve along this corridor. Gusty winds and some hail appear possible with this activity. After sunset, low-level warm advection should focus ascent from southeast OK into northeast TX. This elevated activity could also generate hail, and perhaps some wind gusts. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 250100Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm probabilities are low the rest of tonight. ...01z Update... Weak low-latitude short-wave trough, within the base of the longer wave, is ejecting across the eastern Gulf Basin early this evening. Substantial complex of storms is noted ahead of this feature, roughly 100mi west of the FL Gulf Coast. This activity should struggle to move onshore, though the leading edge with lightning may approach the coast before this complex weakens. Across the central Peninsula, isolated thunderstorm has developed over Osceola County along the wind shift; however, boundary-layer cooling is expected to result in weakening updrafts and the probability for thunderstorms after 01z appears too meager to warrant an outlook. ..Darrow.. 03/25/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 24 21:13:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0261 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 0261 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 241846Z - 242215Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow will continue across eastern Maine for the next few hours, with 1 inch/hour snowfall rates possible. DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching stacked cyclone over the Great Lakes, low-level warm-air/moisture advection over eastern New England is providing increased ascent amid a sub-freezing troposphere. Saturation of the dendritic growth zone is supporting heavier snowfall, which has been observed over NH into southwest ME over the past couple of hours. Current thinking is that the primary snowband along the NH/ME border will continue to benefit from low-level convergence along an axis of 850-700 mb frontogenesis, which characterizes the nose of the stronger WAA within the dendritic growth zone. 1 inch/hour snowfall rates will be possible, as also shown by the consensus of the more recent high-resolution guidance. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 43457087 44037096 44657047 45666927 45936826 45636735 45076687 44606713 44216817 43756930 43457087 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z Fire weather concerns are expected to gradually return to the southern High Plains through the extended period. Long-range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the gradual eastward translation of the upper ridge (currently over the western CONUS) through the middle of the week. By D5/Friday into D6/Saturday, an upper trough will begin to push into the Four Corners and southern High Plains, resulting in dry/windy conditions across a region with ERCs between the 80th to 95th percentile. Extended guidance hints that this may be the start of a more active upper-level regime featuring a series of progressive shortwave troughs across the southern U.S. heading into early next week. ...D3/Wednesday to D4/Thursday - New Mexico... A weak upper disturbance is expected to migrate into NM/west TX under the axis of the long-wave ridge by mid-week. Although the low-level mass response to this feature will be weak, northwestward warm/moist advection into eastern NM and west TX coupled with modest ascent is expected to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late D3/Wed into D4/Thur from central NM to western TX. On the western periphery of the moist plume, PWAT values between 0.5 to 0.75 inches should coincide with the coldest mid-level temperatures and promote sufficient MUCAPE (50-200 J/kg) for isolated thunderstorms. Dry, well-mixed boundary layers will limit rainfall amounts and support the potential for dry lightning strikes over a region with critically dry fuels. ...D5/Friday to D6/Saturday - southern High Plains... West/southwest winds are expected to strengthen through the day on D5/Friday across the Four Corners and southern High Plains amid surface pressure falls ahead of the approaching upper trough. Dry air advecting into the region will promote a swath of 15-20% RH coincident with 15-20 mph winds behind a sharpening lee trough/dryline. Elevated fire weather conditions appear likely with critical conditions possible depending on the intensity of surface low and resulting wind field. The upper trough is forecast to begin ejecting into the southern/central Plains on D5/Saturday with the attendant surface low and dryline shifting east through the day. Although there is some spread among guidance regarding the eastward progression of the dryline and wind magnitudes, the overall consensus among ensemble members is for widespread elevated to critical fire weather conditions across eastern NM into adjacent portions of TX. Although fuels are currently critically dry, rain chances in the preceding days may limit fuel availability/dryness to some degree. Given that this synoptic pattern matches typical critical fire weather regimes, higher risk probabilities will likely be warranted as fuel status uncertainty is reduced. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible across portions of the Southeast U.S. and southwestern TX. ...20Z Update... The Category 1/Marginal Risk was removed, with thunder probabilities constricted to portions of the Gulf Coast. Latest MRMS radar and NLDN lightning data show decreasing trends in convective intensity along the Gulf Coast, in general agreement with high-resolution guidance consensus. Furthermore, objective analysis also shows decreasing buoyancy across much of the Southeast, with thunder probabilities preserved along the Gulf Coast, where lightning flashes are most likely. ..Squitieri.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No fire weather highlights are introduced for this update, though areas of fire weather concerns may emerge across the northern Plains and across the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Across the northern Plains, deep mixing within a relatively dry air mass may support areas of 15-20 mph winds with 20-30% RH. Across the Carolinas, pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. Latest guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial coverage of elevated fire weather conditions for both regions, which limits confidence in the overall fire weather threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if observations trend towards drier/windier solutions. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions appear unlikely over much of the CONUS Tuesday. Amplified mid-level flow, with ridging in the west and broad troughing in the east, will persist with little change. A weak cold front will move south over the Plains keeping surface conditions dry. Surface high pressure should keep winds relatively light despite dry conditions over much of the central CONUS. While some localized fire-weather concerns are possible with gusty winds of 10-15 mph and low RH near the front in the southern Plains, more widespread fire-weather concerns are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OR/WA/NORTHERN ID... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon into the evening. ...Pacific Northwest... Synoptic pattern appears favorable for early-season severe potential. Largely maintained a broad level 1-MRGL risk with overall scenario supporting at least isolated severe-storm potential. Parts of the region, focused west of the Cascades and over eastern OR/southeast WA, may warrant a level 2-SLGT risk delineation in later outlooks. A vigorous shortwave trough is expected to approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. An intense mid-level jetlet, near 100 kts at 500 mb, ahead of the trough should overspread areas west of the Cascades by Wednesday evening. Near-record to record high temperatures are anticipated amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This should support areas of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, the pronounced strengthening of flow should support potential for a few supercells west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes by peak heating. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker and the boundary layer should be more deeply mixed. As such, potential exists for a thunderstorm cluster moving north-northeast across parts of eastern OR/southeast WA/northern ID during the late afternoon and evening. Strong to at least isolated severe gusts may be the primary threat in this latter regime. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 24 17:58:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 PM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Tuesday. ...FL Peninsula... In the wake of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse passage on D1, large-scale ascent appears nebulous across the region. Still, pronounced boundary-layer heating should yield at least isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon, mainly along the east coast sea breeze. Cool mid-level temperatures could support hail growth amid moderate buoyancy. Modest deep-layer shear should temper the overall threat, but a few slow-moving cells with mostly small hail and locally strong gusts may occur over southeast FL. ...Southern Great Plains... Within the periphery of a broad northwest flow regime across the central to eastern states, the surface pattern should be characterized by a weak southern High Plains trough and a quasi-stationary front extending east across north TX towards the Red River. Aggressive guidance suggests potential for isolated thunder in north-central TX late afternoon to early evening Tuesday along the leading edge of slightly greater boundary-layer moisture. Otherwise, a modest low-level warm theta-e advection regime north of the surface front could support isolated, mainly elevated thunder into Tuesday night. ...Southern Appalachians/Piedmont to the Upper Midwest... A trio of shortwave impulses migrating through the broad north-central to eastern CONUS longwave trough may provide adequate ascent for very isolated thunder from mid-afternoon to early evening Tuesday. Given the west to northwesterly flow regime, buoyancy is expected to remain scant at most. Destabilization will largely be driven by peak boundary-layer heating ahead of each respective impulse. Convection should largely remain low-topped, but sporadic flashes may accompany the more sustained cores. Locally gusty winds within well-mixed boundary layers are possible. ...Western OR... Between a northeast Pacific upper trough and an amplified ridge over the interior West, a meridional deep-layer flow regime will exist along the Pacific Coast. Some models continue to hint at a narrow corridor of 700-mb warm theta-e advection supporting very isolated convection west of the Cascades in OR by early morning Wednesday. ..Grams.. 03/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241700Z - 251200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated risk area has been added to parts of the central Appalachians where westerly downslope winds are expected to increase to near 15 mph this afternoon with RH reductions into the 20-30% range. Lingering clouds are expected to clear by mid-afternoon as a surface trough traverses the Appalachians. Given recent fire activity over the past few days, the increasing winds and reduced RH should promote at least a low-end fire weather concern. ...Central/Southern Plains... The Elevated risk area across OK/KS has been expanded based on morning surface observations which show winds already increasing to near 15 mph and RH falling into the upper 20s. Localized fire weather conditions remain possible across northwest KS into adjacent areas of CO and NE, but confidence in RH reductions remains limited given increasing cloud cover. ..Moore.. 03/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will gradually amplify through the forecast period as shortwave ridging builds to the west, and a broad trough deepens to the east. The primary cold front will continue offshore over the Atlantic and Gulf Coast as northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US. A weak secondary surface low and trailing front will move over the Plains States supporting gusty winds and some localized fire-weather risk. ...OK and KS... A weak surface low over the central US will move southeast ahead of a second cold front moving across the northern and central Plains. Ahead of the front, veered low-level flow will gradually increase through the day across parts of OK and KS. Southwesterly gusts of 10-20 mph will occur with low afternoon RH around 25%. The dry and breezy conditions will overlap with very dry fuels supporting a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions. Behind the secondary front across northern/central KS, gusty northwest winds are also possible for a few hours this afternoon. However, a cooler air mass will favor higher RH atop fuels that are less receptive. Some localized fire-weather concerns may develop, but more widespread concerns are not expected. ...Appalachians... In the wake of the first cold front, a few hours of gusty westerly winds are possible across the central and southern Appalachians. While light rain will likely temper fuels and RH minimums, the strong winds may still briefly overlap with RH below 30% during the afternoon across western VA and NC. This could support locally elevated fire-weather conditions given the dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1108 AM CDT Mon Mar 24 2025 Valid 241630Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today from southern Louisiana eastward to the Florida Panhandle and far southern Georgia. ...Gulf Coast... Clusters of thunderstorms have been affecting parts of southern LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle this morning. The effective outflow boundary currently extends from the Delta region of southeast LA eastward across the Gulf near-shore waters into the FL Panhandle, and is pushing slowly southward. This will significantly limit the area of surface-based instability through the afternoon. Nevertheless, a strong storm or two will remain possible in vicinity of the boundary, with locally damaging winds or hail being the main concerns. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/24/2025 Read more