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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0446 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z An upper-level trough will move into the West with an amplified ridge shifting over the central/eastern US by mid next week. Well above normal temperatures will accompany the shifting ridge ahead of the trough, with strong southerly return flow across the Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push south and east through the West by early next week and much of the Plains mid-next week. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 4/Monday: Northeast... On Day 3/Sunday, dry/breezy offshore flow will continue across portions of the Northeast with locally critical conditions possible. Flow appears to weaken further on Day 4/Monday, but near critically low RH is likely to continue across portions of the coastal Northeast. ...Day 3/Sunday - Day 5/Tuesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... As the upper-level trough moves into the West, downslope flow will increase across portions of the northern/central High Plains on Day 3/Sunday. Locally critical conditions are likely as west-southerly winds increase amid lee troughing and downslope flow. These conditions may continue on Day 4/Monday, but forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the cold front and development of potential critical conditions from eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. On Day 4/Monday, dry/breezy winds will develop ahead of the cold front in portions of the southern Great Basin into the Southwest, with locally elevated to locally critical conditions likely. Lee troughing amid downslope flow will also result in dry/breezy conditions on portions of the southern High Plains behind a sharpening dryline. A relatively narrow corridor of elevated to locally critical winds/RH are likely to develop on Day 5/Tuesday from southern New Mexico/southwest Texas into southwest Kansas. Preclusion of 70% probabilities or further expansion of 40% probabilities in the southern Great Basin, Southwest, and southern/central High Plains are due to: 1) forecast high clouds, which is a known failure mode for critical conditions developing in these areas; 2) moisture return from the Gulf of Mexico amid strengthening southerly flow on the southern/central Plains; and 3) fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall and fuel availability in fuel limited ecosystems in potential outlook areas. For the Midwest and Great Lakes, strengthening southerly flow could increase fire weather concerns, but current forecast guidance has most areas of concern with non-critical RH. If the southerly return flow is drier, outlook areas will be considered in subsequent issuances. ...Day 5/Tuesday - Day 7/Thursday: southern California... Offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California on Day 5/Tuesday into Day 7/Thursday. However, potential preceding precipitation and onshore flow coupled with a short period of weak Santa Ana/offshore winds preclude introducing probabilities currently. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minor changes were made to the general thunderstorm forecast based on current observations and recent model guidance. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will develop into the western CONUS on Sunday, shunting an upper ridge quickly across the Plains and toward the MS Valley. Substantial cooling aloft will result in weak destabilization across parts of the Pacific Northwest with 500 mb temperatures to about -25 C. Forecast soundings depict perhaps 100 J/kg SBCAPE across coastal counties of WA and OR where EL temperatures will likely be cold enough to support lightning. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z Latest high-resolution forecast guidance indicates that elevated conditions are likely from Maryland/Delaware northward through Massachusetts. Minimum RH of 25-35% with northwest sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 20-30 mph are expected tomorrow across this area. Additionally, record high fire danger will result in locally critical conditions, most likely in portions of New Jersey/vicinity. An Elevated area was also added for portions of Wyoming where near critical winds/RH will overlap dry fuels. Locally elevated winds/RH may extend into portions of western Nebraska/South Dakota as well. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. An isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will sharpen over the Rockies on Saturday as a large upper trough over the Great Lakes shifts east, and another upper trough spreads into the Pacific Northwest and Great Basin. High pressure will be prominent from the Plains into the Midwest, and over much of the intermountain west during the day. In the wake of the northeastern trough, a weak front is forecast to extend roughly from the TN Valley into TX, with an area of 60s F dewpoints extending northward toward the ArkLaTex. While lift will be weak, heating within the moist plume will result in an uncapped air mass, and a few daytime thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Severe weather is unlikely as shear will be weak, and midlevel lapse rates poor. Elsewhere, increasing large-scale ascent across the Pacific Northwest with substantial cooling aloft will occur overnight, with low-topped convection primarily offshore. ..Jewell.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A modestly amplified and progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS today, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/OH Valley. A surface cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the OH Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and TN Valley through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms should continue this afternoon across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into IN/OH to the north of a warm front across the lower OH Valley. Weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential through the period. Occasional lightning flashes may also occur across parts of the U.P. in MI and adjacent Lake Superior this evening/tonight as cold mid-level temperatures associated with an upper trough support weak instability. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Minimum RH of 15-25% is likely in a dry post-frontal airmass across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, but winds should remain mostly below 10 mph. The forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0728 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A modestly amplified/progressive large-scale pattern will persist over the CONUS, including the deamplification of an eastward-moving shortwave trough over the Midwest/Ohio Valley. A cold front will similarly continue east-southeastward across the Ohio Valley/Mid-South toward the Appalachians and Tennessee Valley through tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Ozarks near the cold front, and also northeastward into Indiana and Ohio to the north of a warm front across the Lower Ohio Valley. A modest increase in thunderstorm coverage should regionally occur into the afternoon, but weak/thin buoyancy and meager effective shear within the more unstable warm sector are expected to limit severe thunderstorm potential. ..Guyer/Goss.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong ridging will dominate the CONUS D2/Saturday as the upper-level flow pattern amplifies. The prior cold front will continue eastward with trailing high pressure remaining over the central CONUS. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Local fire-weather concerns could develop, but are not expected to be widespread. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... As the upper ridge shifts east, westerly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains beginning early Saturday. As a result, weak lee troughing should develop and encourage breezy winds across parts of the Front Range and the High Plains. While not overly strong, periodic 15-20 mph surface winds and downslope drying will support RH values as low as 20-25%. The occasional stronger winds may overlap with areas of receptive fuels supporting a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, with only sporadic winds and marginal RH, more widespread fire-weather concerns appear unlikely. ...Northeast... In the wake of the cold front moving offshore, a cooler, but still dry and breezy air mass may develop over parts of the Northeast Saturday. As the ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will gradually become more northwesterly and intensify. This should support dry offshore flow over much of the East Coast. While RH values may not be overly low, a few hours of RH below 30% appear likely given the dry origins of the continental air mass. With little recent rainfall, area fuels are quite dry. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, despite marginal winds and RH. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid/upper trough will progress eastward from the western U.S. to the Upper Midwest Days 4-7/Mon-Thu. As this occurs, a belt of strong mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread portions of the southern/central Plains to the upper MS Valley on Day 5/Tue, and much of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes vicinity on Day 6/Wed. In response, a series of surface lows will migrate across the central Plains to the upper Great Lakes on Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Increasing southerly low-level flow will transport 50s to possibly low 60s F dewpoints northward across the central/southern Plains to the Mid/Upper MS Valley during this time. Thunderstorm potential will increase on Day 5/Tue in this warm advection regime ahead of the trough, and into Day 6/Wed as a cold front is forecast to progress eastward over the central CONUS. Given strong deep-layer southwesterly flow and increasing boundary-layer moisture to aid in destabilization, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. However, capping may preclude a greater severe risk on Day 5/Tue as midlevel temperatures are forecast to be fairly warm. By Day 6/Wed, strong large-scale ascent may be lifting into the Great Lakes/Canada and out of phase with better low-level moisture and modest instability. Given uncertainty, will not introduce any 15 percent delineations at this time, but outlook areas may be needed in subsequent outlooks for parts of the central Plains to Upper Midwest vicinity around Days 5-6/Tue-Wed. Toward the end of the period, another upper shortwave trough may eject from the western U.S. into the Plains. However, large spread in timing and position of this feature is resulting in low predictability from Day 7/Thu and beyond. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Widespread fire-weather concerns are unlikely over the CONUS today and tonight. A cold front is forecast to move eastward from the central US. Behind the front, high pressure will intensify, bolstering gusty northerly winds to 10-20 mph across the southern/central Plains. While dry, cooler temperatures should keep diurnal RH minimums above critical criteria. A few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions may develop closer to the front over parts of OK, KS, and TX, but widespread and sustained fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across parts of the Pacific Northwest coastal vicinity. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper trough will move over the Pacific Coast states on Sunday. As this occurs, cooling aloft will result in steepening lapse rates and weak elevated instability, especially over the Pacific Northwest. Increasing midlevel moisture will further support isolated thunderstorms near the WA/OR and northern CA coasts. Further east, a broad upper ridge will migrate across the Plains to the MS Valley. Surface high pressure will maintain a mostly dry airmass east of the MS River. However, a strengthening surface trough over the Plains in response to the departing upper ridge and approaching western upper trough will result in some northward transport of modest Gulf moisture on southerly low-level flow. However, warm midlevel temperatures will preclude thunderstorm potential. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is low today. ...Discussion... Deamplification of the lower MO Valley short-wave trough is expected to continue through the day1 period as this feature progresses across the OH Valley into the northern middle Atlantic after 26/00z. In response to this short wave, a weak surface low will track across the mid MS Valley early, then lose its identity as a pronounced surface front advances southeast. This boundary will serve as one focus for potential convective development, along with warm advection. Modest boundary-layer heating is expected to result in weak buoyancy ahead of the front; although, weak instability will also be noted within the warm advection zone. In both cases, it appears some risk for lightning will be noted with the deeper updrafts. Forecast soundings suggest parcels will exceed levels necessary for lightning discharge but the threat of severe appears low, namely due to weak instability. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CDT Thu Oct 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous states on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An amplified upper ridge will extend across much of the western half of the CONUS, while an upper trough moves offshore the Atlantic coast on Saturday. At the surface, expansive high pressure over much of the U.S. will be in place, along with a dry airmass, precluding destabilization. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ..Leitman.. 10/25/2024 Read more