No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 25 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0440 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z ...D3/Thursday: Parts of NM... 10% dry thunderstorm probabilities have been maintained across parts of NM for D3/Thursday. Isolated diurnal storm development will again be possible across much of NM into west TX. Storms along the western periphery of the deeper moist plume are unlikely to produce more than light precipitation, with potential for lightning strikes to result in fire starts within a region of dry and receptive fuels. ...D3/Thursday: Parts of FL... Relatively dry conditions are expected to persist across parts of the FL Peninsula on Thursday, within the influence of an offshore surface ridge. Minimum RH values may drop below 35%, especially across southeast portions of the peninsula. Winds are likely to remain rather modest, but locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon and early evening. ...D4/Friday - D8/Tuesday: Parts of NM into west TX and vicinity... While predictability regarding the surface and upper-air pattern gradually decreases with time into early next week, it appears likely that multiple shortwaves will move across the southern Rockies into the Plains beginning on D4/Friday. 40% critical probabilities were maintained for Friday/Saturday and added for Sunday for parts of NM into west TX. The magnitude and north/east extent of critical potential remains uncertain this weekend, and will depend on the timing and amplitude of any ejecting shortwaves. For D7/Monday into D8/Tuesday, confidence remains too low to introduce critical probabilities, though elevated to potentially critical conditions may persist or develop into early next week, depending on the evolution of the pattern and persistent mid/upper-level troughing across the Southwest. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Appalachians... An Elevated area has been added for areas near/east of the Blue Ridge into parts of the Carolina Piedmont. Post-frontal downslope flow will result in RH dropping to near critical thresholds, with sustained wind speeds approaching 15 mph (with stronger gusts). Light to locally moderate rainfall on D1/Tuesday may result in a local minimum of threat across parts of central VA, within the larger Elevated area. ...New Mexico and vicinity... A small southwestward expansion has been made to the Isolated Dry Thunderstorm area, but otherwise the previous reasoning remains valid. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...20Z Update... The primary changes made to the Day 1 Convective Outlook Update were to trim thunder probabilities along the OR Coast, portions of the central Appalachians, as well as the OH Valley and central High Plains. In these areas, forcing for ascent will be subtle at best, and buoyancy is expected to remain quite scant. A lightning flash or two may still occur with some of the deeper convective updrafts in these areas. Still, the overall thunderstorm coverage should be too low to warrant the maintenance of thunderstorm probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL STATES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across south Texas into the Trans-Pecos from Thursday morning to evening, and over the Lower Missouri/Mid-Mississippi Valleys, mainly during the afternoon into Thursday night. ...South TX to the Trans-Pecos... Non-NAM guidance is fairly consistent with extensive deep convection ongoing across parts of south TX at 12Z Thursday, in association with a leading low-amplitude shortwave impulse. This suggests that one round of severe potential along the Lower TX Coast and Deep South TX may occur through late morning into midday before convection weakens/shifts offshore. In its wake, a period of stabilization, much more prominent than indicated by the 12Z NAM, appears likely. This may confine afternoon thunderstorm development to the higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and northeast Mexico. But with weak mid-level troughing and potential for upstream low-amplitude impulses, recovery may occur by evening to yield renewed severe potential across the Rio Grande Valley. ...Lower MO/Mid-MS Valleys... Highly elevated, weak convection should be ongoing at 12Z Thursday across parts of IA to northern MO, downstream of the northward-advancing surface warm front. With elevated buoyancy gradually increasing, it is plausible a couple strong storms might develop along the southern periphery of this convective plume across the Mid-MO Valley into the afternoon. A more favorable thermodynamic environment is expected by late afternoon along the front in northeast KS. Renewed storm development may occur here, becoming likely downstream of a strengthening low-level jet Thursday evening. With potential for greater elevated buoyancy, especially west owing to steeper mid-level lapse rates within the upstream EML, severe hail will be possible. Forecast profiles suggest that shear within the lower half of the elevated parcels may be modest and this may support a predominant cluster mode that limits the threat. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

MD 0262 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST FL PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0262 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Areas affected...Southeast FL Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 251755Z - 252030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible mainly this afternoon into the early evening (3-7pm). DISCUSSION...Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level vorticity maximum over the shelf waters to the west of the Everglades/Keys moving east over the region this afternoon. Visible-satellite imagery shows a cumulus field destabilizing from near Lake Okeechobee southward, where temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 80s with 68-70 deg F dewpoints. Modifying the 12 UTC Miami raob for current conditions yields around 1700 J/kg MLCAPE with minimal CINH. Although flow in the lowest 2 km is weak (below 15 kt), westerly flow increasing from 25 kt to 40 kt in the 3-7 km layer, is resulting in a wind profile that will support some storm organization---mainly in the form of multicells. Convection-allowing model guidance (12 UTC HREF and recent time-lagged HRRR runs) show greater storm coverage beginning in the 3-5pm period. An initial threat for a stronger storm over the greater Miami area will gradually expand as storms develop north/northwest in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee later this afternoon. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures (-13 to -12 deg C) will support hail potential with the stronger cells. Steep surface-850 mb lapse rates with the more intense water-loaded cores will also yield a risk for damaging gusts (55-70 mph) with the stronger storms. This activity will likely diminish during the evening as the boundary layer slowly stabilizes and/or storms move offshore. ..Smith/Hart.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW... LAT...LON 25308043 25408058 26688114 27478119 27708093 27868036 26747994 25448009 25308025 25308043 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Coverage should be mostly isolated, but a more probable corridor for a few supercells is apparent west of the Cascades. These may produce large hail, a brief tornado, and locally strong gusts. ...Pacific Northwest... Confidence is sufficient for an upgrade to level 2-SLGT risk for large hail, centered along the I-5 corridor in western OR/WA. Considered a separate upgrade across northeast OR/southwest WA for wind, but confidence is too low to warrant one at this time. A vigorous shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast through the period. A pronounced mid-level jetlet, around 90-100 kts at 500 mb, should overspread the OR coast to west of the Cascades on Wednesday evening. Near record to record high temperatures are anticipated downstream amid a preceding highly amplified mid/upper ridge shifting east. This combined with well above-normal PW values should yield pockets of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by Wednesday afternoon. Despite a meridional deep-layer wind profile, a few supercells will likely develop west of the Cascades as MLCIN wanes towards peak heating. With weak low-level shear, large hail should be the primary hazard. A storm or two might produce significant severe sizes of 2-2.5 inches before storms weaken over the Cascades. Farther east, deep-layer shear will be progressively weaker, but the boundary layer will be more deeply mixed. Guidance varies greatly with the degree of convective coverage in this region into the evening. The more aggressive models suggest a thunderstorm cluster or two could evolve across northeast OR/southeast WA. Should this occur, severe wind gusts would be the primary hazard. Given a subtle delayed/weaker trend in the timing/strength of the parent shortwave trough, will maintain broad low probabilities for now. ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/South TX... Minor mid-level impulses are progged to undercut the highly amplified ridge that currently exists from the Rio Grande Valley to the Pacific Northwest. Guidance varies in mesoscale spatiotemporal aspects of when these impulses cross the Rio Grande into south TX. With rich boundary-layer moisture over Deep South TX and potential for pronounced diabatic heating, a marginally favorable environment for isolated severe hail/wind is apparent. While speeds may be modest, a vertically veering wind profile with height could support a few slow-moving, transient supercell structures Wednesday afternoon/evening. ..Grams.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...Appalachians... Some expansion has been made to the Elevated area in the southern Appalachians vicinity, based on the latest observational and guidance trends. Sustained winds approaching 15 mph at times combined with RH near/below 30% will result in elevated to locally critical conditions. See the previous discussion below for more information. ...Northern Plains... An Elevated area has been added from southwest ND into eastern SD. Dry and breezy conditions (with winds near/above 20 mph and RH dropping to near/below 30%) will result in elevated to locally critical conditions where fuels are dry. ..Dean.. 03/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1055 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST FL...AND OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX.... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...FL... A broad upper trough is present today over the eastern US, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies across south FL. Ample low-level moisture and strong heating will lead to moderate CAPE values across the southeast FL peninsula, where sea-breeze circulations will aid in the development of scattered thunderstorms through the afternoon. Low-level winds are weak and veered. However, sufficient flow and cool temperatures aloft may be sufficient for a few organized storms capable of hail and gusty wind through early evening. ...TX/OK... Full sunshine is occurring over much of TX/OK, with weak southerly low level winds establishing an increasingly moist boundary layer air mass. By mid/late afternoon, a diffuse dryline is expected to develop across north-central TX where a handful of morning CAM solutions initiate isolated thunderstorms. While this scenario is not highly confident, any dryline storm would pose some risk of hail and gusty winds for a few hours. Overnight, a strengthening southerly low-level jet will enhance warm advection and lift across southern OK. This will likely lead to scattered elevated thunderstorms after 04z, spreading into northeast TX late. A few of these storms could produce hail and gusty winds. ..Hart/Mosier.. 03/25/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 25 15:59:01 UTC 2025.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AS WELL AS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Gusty winds, along with some risk for hail, will accompany isolated thunderstorms across the southeastern Florida Peninsula, and parts of southeast Oklahoma and northern/central Texas. ...Southern Florida Peninsula... The region will be influenced by cyclonically curved westerlies aloft associated with a prominent Eastern States longwave trough. Relatively cool mid-level temperatures (-13 to -14C at 500mb) will support moderate buoyancy across the southern Peninsula this afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s F. While deep-layer wind profiles will remain somewhat modest, solenoidal influences should encourage isolated convection, some of which could potentially be severe. Strong gusty winds, and perhaps isolated severe hail, could occur with this diurnally driven activity. ...Southeast Oklahoma and North/Central Texas... Upper heights will tend to rise as a front shifts/refocuses northward toward the Red River vicinity later today. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west of the I-35 corridor, where convective temperatures will be breached by late afternoon as readings rise through the mid 80s F. While recent HRRR runs are relatively limited in terms of implied convective development, various global and convection-allowing models suggest that diurnally aided development across central into north Texas is plausible toward/just after peak heating, with a greater probability and coverage for storms nocturnally into southern/eastern Oklahoma. Isolated large hail could occur regionally in either regime, with some potential for strong wind gusts as well, mainly in areas near the Red River southward across North Texas. A greater confidence in diurnally related storm development/coverage could warrant consideration of a focused hail-related Slight Risk in subsequent outlooks. ..Guyer/Bentley.. 03/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0409 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range models appear to be in reasonably good agreement into the Day 7 period (Monday March 31), with respect to evolution/progression of large-scale features. Day 4/Friday, a southern-stream trough is forecast to continue moving slowly eastward across the south-central states, reaching the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this feature, but the lack of robust CAPE/shear likely to be associated with this feature suggests that severe potential should remain subdued. Farther north, weak disturbances moving through anticyclonic flow aloft across the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will likely combine with warm advection near the northward-advancing warm front to support areas of deep convection, with some potential for hail. Risk however appears too low to warrant an areal inclusion. Saturday (Day 5), an upper trough will continue advancing across the Rockies. However, models forecast the main surface low to remain over the eastern Colorado vicinity into the evening hours, with a capped warm sector residing across eastern Kansas/Oklahoma/Texas and the Ozarks area (i.e. yesterday's Day 6 outlook area) in a zone of subsidence in the wake of the slow-moving southern-stream trough. As such, storm initiation now appears likely to remain largely hindered through Sunday morning. The primary severe risk appears likely to evolve Sunday/Day 6, from Missouri/Arkansas/northern Louisiana, spreading eastward through the day, and eventually approaching the west slopes of the Appalachians. As the western U.S. upper trough emerges into the Plains, supporting deepening of surface low pressure, a moist warm sector will destabilize through the day, likely yielding storm development initially west of the Mississippi Valley, and then spreading eastward through the evening. The favorable thermodynamic environment will combine with strong/veering flow through the middle troposphere, suggesting of severe storms including supercells, and attendant, all-hazards severe potential. By Monday, models begin to diverge with respect to speed of surface-frontal advancement east of the Appalachians. Still, enough destabilization should occur east and southeast of the front to allow storms to spread across the Southeast, along with attendant severe risk. Tuesday, model differences continue to increase, with the front residing off the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts per the GFS, while lingering over parts of the Southeast and the Gulf Coast region per the ECMWF. Given the uncertainty/predictability issues, no risk areas will be included. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AND ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms will be possible Thursday from the Mid Missouri Valley into the Ohio Valley, and across parts of western and southern Texas. ...Synopsis... Deamplification of the upper pattern across the U.S. is expected Thursday, as an eastern U.S. trough departs into the Atlantic, and deamplifying eastern Pacific troughing shifts into the West. Meanwhile, a weak southern-stream trough is forecast to cross northern Mexico and the southern Plains through Friday morning. At the surface, a cold front is expected to advance across the Intermountain West, associated with the filling/occluded low off the Pacific Northwest coast. Meanwhile, a warm front is forecast to advance northward across the central U.S., and should extend from the northern Plains east-southeastward into the Ohio Valley by the end of the period. ...Portions of western and southern Texas, including the Rio Grande Valley... Afternoon heating will result in airmass destabilization across Texas, as cool air aloft associated with the southern-stream trough spreads across the region. While flow aloft will remain modest, ample CAPE suggests a few stronger storms will be possible, with risk for hail and gusty/damaging winds. Coverage of stronger convection should remain sparse, but enough to warrant introduction of 5%/MRGL risk for the afternoon and evening hours. ...Mid Missouri Valley across the Corn Belt... Low-level warm advection will be maximized near and north of a warm front advancing northward across the central CONUS. Sufficiently steep mid-level lapse rates will support ample elevated CAPE, resulting in a zone of strong storm potential from eastern Nebraska east-southeastward to Indiana. With west-northwesterly mid-level flow expected to average around 35 kt near the frontal zone, sufficient shear will exist to allow occasionally stronger storms to evolve -- a few capable of producing severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Large-scale ridging will continue to amplify over the western US as a subtle southern stream shortwave trough slides underneath the ridge. Weak ascent will overspread parts of the Southwest as modest moisture returns to the west. This may support isolated dry thunderstorms atop dry fuels in parts of the Southwest. ...Parts of NM... As the weak upper-level trough moves over the Southwest, modest ascent and easterly upslope flow is expected to promote isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from central NM to western TX. At the western extent of the moist plume, PWAT values less than 0.75 inches will overlap with sufficiently steep low and mid-level lapse rates to support high-based storms with poor precipitation efficiency. Dry lightning strikes appear likely over very receptive fuels given the high-based nature of any convection that forms. An Isolated Dry Thunder area has been added across western and central NM where best overlap of thunderstorm potential and dry fuels should exist for several hours Wed. ...Appalachians... Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern Appalachians Wed. High pressure will gradually shift eastward with downslope flow likely across parts of western VA and the Carolinas. While surface winds may not be overly strong (generally less than 15 mph), isolated gusts near 20 mph are possible. In addition, afternoon RH should fall below 25%. Model guidance shows considerable spread regarding the spatial and temporal coverage of any elevated fire weather conditions that may develop. A few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, but uncertain. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 AM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper cyclone will remain over eastern US as ridging intensifies across the east today and tonight. Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of the central US and Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front will move south over the Plains, as a secondary front moves over the central and southern Appalachians. Dry conditions and occasional gusty winds could promote some elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northern Plains... Behind the front over the central US, gusty northwest winds are possible across parts of SD and NE. A few hours of dry and breezy conditions will be possible with RH below 30% and wind gusts of 20-25 mph. While the overlap of dry and breezy conditions will be brief, area fuels are dry and could support some localized fire-weather risk. ...Appalachians... Ahead of the cold front moving over the eastern US and Appalachians, a few hours of gusty winds are possible this afternoon. Pre-frontal winds may increase to 15-20 mph with RH values falling to near 25%. The highest confidence for more sustained elevated conditions appears to be across parts of western NC/SC where winds and lower humidity may better overlap with recent fire activity and drier fuels given recent rainfall. ..Lyons.. 03/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more