SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was trimming the General Thunderstorm area behind the front in the Southeast. Similar to previous thinking, locally strong gusts could accompany a small multicell cluster tracking southeastward across western NC into northwestern SC this afternoon. However, this activity has remained shallow owing to marginal instability, and the risk of severe-caliber gusts still appears too low for probabilities. ..Weinman.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the the coastal Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, and upper Great Lakes. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough along the West Coast will undergo some amplification Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In the East, upper-level ridging will continue to increase. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Modest moisture return will occur into the Upper Midwest by the evening/overnight. Some elevated buoyancy (250-600 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop in eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan by early /mid evening as low-level warm advection increases. A few stronger updrafts capable of small hail are possible, but larger/severe hail is not likely. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday in parts of the the coastal Pacific Northwest, Four Corners, and upper Great Lakes. Severe weather is unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough along the West Coast will undergo some amplification Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning. In the East, upper-level ridging will continue to increase. At the surface, a low will deepen in the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Modest moisture return will occur into the Upper Midwest by the evening/overnight. Some elevated buoyancy (250-600 J/kg MUCAPE) is expected to develop in eastern Wisconsin/western Michigan by early /mid evening as low-level warm advection increases. A few stronger updrafts capable of small hail are possible, but larger/severe hail is not likely. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z Locally elevated conditions are possible across portions of the Great Basin and eastern California ahead of a cold front and amid downslope flow. Additionally, locally elevated conditions are possible in portions of north-central Montana due to downslope flow. Otherwise the forecast remains on track and please see the previous discussion for more details. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1203 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along the coastal Pacific Northwest. Severe weather appears unlikely. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest with broader cyclonic flow extending into the intermountain region. Ridging aloft will be the primary feature east of the Divide as another upper-level trough in parts of the Northeast continues to move offshore during the period. A Pacific surface front will continue to move eastward along with the western upper-level system. ...Coastal Washington/Oregon... Within the post-frontal environment, cold temperatures aloft will promote sufficient buoyancy for isolated thunderstorms. Depth of convection will likely remain marginally supportive of charge separation, limiting overall coverage. There may be a brief period where modest low-level wind enhancement could overlap with peak buoyancy (200-300 J/kg MUCAPE) leading to weak low-level rotation in the strongest storms. Even so, a few strong, sub-severe wind gusts along the coast are all that is expected at this time. ..Wendt.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Ongoing isolated thunderstorms across AR into TN are occurring along/near a weak surface front. Mean large-scale troughing is present over the eastern CONUS, with nebulous/weak large-scale ascent over the Southeast. 12Z soundings from LZK and BNA show a stable layer/inversion in the 580-540 mb layer, which is hindering MUCAPE to some extent. Even so, isolated thunderstorms should continue along the surface boundary through the afternoon as daytime heating occurs from parts of the lower MS Valley into the Carolinas. Weak instability and modest deep-layer shear should limit updraft intensity/organization, although occasional gusty winds may occur with convection over the western Carolinas as low-level lapse rates gradually steepen through the afternoon with robust diurnal heating. Still, the overall threat for organized severe thunderstorms appears low across the Southeast today. Low-topped convection should also move inland across parts of the Pacific Northwest late tonight into Sunday morning as an upper trough approaches this region. Isolated lightning flashes may occur with some of this activity as mid-level temperatures gradually cool, supporting weak MUCAPE. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0952 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The Elevated area in the Northeast was expanded slightly west/north based on the latest observations and high-resolution forecast guidance. The Elevated area in Wyoming was expanded northward for similar reasoning. Locally elevated conditions may also develop along the Sierra Front and eastern slopes/vicinity of the southern Cascades as southwest/cross-mountain flow strengthens. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... A progressive and semi-amplified large-scale pattern will persist, with mean upper ridging over the Rockies/High Plains and broad troughing over the eastern CONUS. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. A surface cold front will continue to settle south-southeastward today across the southern Appalachians, Lower Mississippi Valley and ArkLaTex. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent especially within a corridor from the southern Arklatex to northern Alabama and South Carolina. Forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts, although lightning-producing convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and mainly during the afternoon through early evening hours. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/26/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Tuesday/Day 4 and Wednesday/Day 5... An upper-level trough and an associated mid-level speed max are forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwest mid-level flow is forecast ahead of the system from the southern High Plains northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. Moisture advection is forecast on Tuesday within a belt of strong low-level flow across the southern and central Plains. The moist airmass may reach the mid Missouri Valley by Tuesday evening where model forecasts develop scattered thunderstorms. A severe threat will be possible across parts of the mid Missouri Valley as the airmass moistens in response to large-scale ascent and relatively strong deep-layer shear. Some model forecasts suggest that convective development may be delayed until the late evening and overnight period. The late initiation would probably keep any severe threat isolated and marginal due the weakness in instability. Will not add a threat area at this time due to timing uncertainty concerning convective initiation. On Wednesday, convective development with greater coverage is forecast during the day from the southern Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. A moist airmass combined with strong low-level flow and sufficient instability may result in a severe threat during the afternoon. At this time, the potential for severe storms appears conditional along much of the corridor from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into Wisconsin. A severe threat area could be needed as confidence increases over the next few model runs concerning the area with the greatest severe potential. ...Thursday/Day 6 to Saturday/Day 8... From Thursday to Saturday, multiple shortwave troughs are forecast to move across the northern tier of the United States. A moist airmass is forecast to remain in place from the southern Plains eastward into the Gulf Coast states. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will be possible over parts of this airmass each day. However, instability and large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relatively weak suggesting that any severe threat that develops could remain isolated and marginal. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday into Monday into Monday night across parts of the Great Lakes, in eastern Florida, across parts of the Four Corners, and in the Pacific Northwest. No severe threat is expected to develop. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will move across the Mississippi Valley on Monday. At the surface, and area of high pressure is forecast along the eastern Seaboard, where onshore flow will likely be in place. A moist airmass over the far eastern Florida Peninsula may warm sufficiently for isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. Elsewhere, a few lightning strikes may occur in the Pacific Northwest, as a shortwave trough moves inland. Isolated storms will also be possible in parts of the Four Corners region during the afternoon. Finally, thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the Great Lakes region Monday night as warm advection increases in association with a strengthening low-level jet. No severe threat is expected to develop Monday or Monday night over the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As upper ridging shifts eastward, Pacific troughing should gradually amplify southwesterly flow over much of the western US. Increased southwesterly flow will deepen a lee trough and increase surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Wyoming and High Plains... As the ridge axis shifts eastward, increasingly strong southwesterly flow will overspread the Rockies and High Plains Sunday. The surface lee trough should deepen, accelerating downslope flow across WY and the central High Plains. Gusts of 15-25 mph may overlap with RH values of 15-20% and dry fuels over eastern WY, the western Dakotas and NE/CO. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Stronger winds and lower humidity are possible farther west into central WY and parts of MT. However, recent precipitation and cooler temperatures have moderated fuels here suggesting a more limited fire-weather threat. ...New England... Offshore flow should continue, but weaken some, Sunday across parts of the East Coast. Gusty winds near 15 mph may remain across parts of coastal New England where RH values are expected to be below 30%. A few hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are possible within very dry and receptive fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and allowing a cooler air mass to moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Strong ridging and high pressure will intensify over the US today as a cold front exits off the East Coast. Increasing flow aloft over the West will support the development of modest lee troughing and downslope flow over the Front Range, while offshore flow is expected over the Northeast. Areas of gusty winds and low humidity will support elevated fire-weather potential today. ...Lee of the Rockies... Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon with gusty downslope winds across parts of WY. Gusts to 15-20 mph and RH below 20% are likely atop dry fuels. Gusty winds may also occur farther east over parts of the Dakotas and NE near the surface lee trough. However, afternoon humidity values here should be higher, supporting only sporadic elevated fire-weather potential. ...Northeast... Breezy offshore winds and dry surface conditions are expected through much of the day today across parts of the Mid Atlantic and East Coast. A strong offshore pressure gradient and increasing northwesterly flow aloft will support gusts upwards of 15 mph with RH of 25-30% within the post-frontal air mass. The combination of several hours of favorable dry/windy conditions and record high fire-danger indices will support elevated to critical fire-weather concerns, especially over parts of NJ and CT/MA. Here, a few hours of locally critical conditions are also possible with lower relative humidity and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday along parts of the coast in the Pacific Northwest, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. on Sunday, as an upper-level ridge moves into the Great Plains. A large surface high will keep the airmass relatively dry across much of the eastern half of the nation. In the west, a shortwave trough will approach the Pacific Northwest coast. Ahead of this feature, strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates should be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development along the coast of Oregon and Washington from Sunday afternoon into the evening and overnight. No severe threat is expected on Sunday or Sunday night across the continental United States. ..Broyles.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little thunderstorm activity is forecast across the contiguous states; however, an isolated weak thunderstorm cannot be ruled out near the ArkLaTex, and across the southern Appalachians. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern remains seasonally tranquil with mean upper ridging holding across the Rockies and a broader trough noted across the eastern US. This flow regime ensures richer moisture/instability will remain suppressed across lower latitudes as northwesterly flow aloft dominates much of the country east of the Rockies. Deep northwesterly flow will encourage a surface high to settle across the Midwest and the leading edge of this air mass will extend into the southern Appalachians-mid South-Arklatex. Latest model guidance suggests a surface front will arc from western NC-northern MS-northeast TX by 18z. Boundary-layer heating will be prominent across the southern Arklatex and from northern AL into SC. As a result, weak buoyancy will develop in both of these regions. With higher PWs noted along this corridor, forecast soundings suggest some potential for lightning discharge in the deepest updrafts. Even so, convection is expected to remain rather sparse, and likely concentrated in the afternoon into early-evening hours. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 PM CDT Fri Oct 25 2024 Valid 260100Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential is fairly low tonight. ...01z Update... Low-amplitude, positive-tilt short-wave trough is progressing across the Appalachians early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms developed ahead of this feature earlier today, but nocturnal cooling and weak buoyancy are now inhibiting deeper updrafts, as is the passage of the short wave. Even so, surface front trails across southeast MO-northern AR-southeast OK-north TX, and this may provide sufficient convergence for weak convection. Weak instability continues along this portion of the front and a flash or two of lightning can not be ruled out with deeper updrafts, primarily for the next few hours. Otherwise, the probability for thunderstorms is generally less than 10%. ..Darrow.. 10/26/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Oct 25 22:19:01 UTC 2024.