SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible from portions of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Severe winds, large to very large hail, and a few tornadoes are possible. Additional isolated strong to severe storms capable of large hail and isolated wind damage are possible within parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic states. ...Synopsis... With the blocking pattern still in place, the upper lows in the Ohio Valley and Southwest will continue to make slow progress on Tuesday. A shortwave trough on the base of the upper low is expected to eject into the southern Plains. This will promote severe potential across much of the region into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Rich moisture will continue to push into much of Texas and a warm front will lift to near the Red River. ...Central/East Texas into Western Louisiana... A complicated forecast exists across these regions. Convection is anticipated to develop in West Texas along a retreating dryline late on Day 1/Monday. Models are in general agreement that some of this activity will persist into Tuesday morning in central Texas. A very moist airmass (mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) will be advecting northward/westward ahead of this activity. There is some potential for this activity to remain slightly elevated given the early morning timing and some overnight boundary layer cooling. However, high theta-e advection will also mitigate inhibition. Though this uncertainty remains, the Slight risk has been moved farther westward in central Texas to account for potential near-surface/surface based storms early on Tuesday. Additional early morning activity is expected along the northward lifting warm front as the shortwave trough ejects into the southern Plains and the low-level jet impinges on the boundary. How this morning activity evolves will greatly impact the potential for higher-end severe storms in the afternoon and what the greatest severe hazard will be. The very moist airmass and steep mid-level lapse rates will promote a zone of 2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE in parts of Central/East Texas south of the warm front. With greater than 50 kts of effective shear, all severe hazards would be possible regardless of the ultimate evolution of the convection. That being said, there appears to be a corridor of conditionally higher severe potential near and just south of the warm front in Northeast Texas into northwest Louisiana. Should a more organized cluster/MCS persist through Monday night into Tuesday morning, there is greater potential for a swath of severe wind gusts as the airmass destabilizes ahead of it. Without the MCS, there is greater potential for storms developing along the warm front to produce tornadoes (perhaps strong) as the strong low-level jet and fringe of the steeper lapse rates will overlap. Given the weakly capped boundary layer even early in the day, there is reasonable confidence in numerous storms, particularly along the warm front. With large amounts of storm interference possible, on top of potential MCS, confidence is not high enough to increase tornado probabilities. Concerning the MCS and greater severe wind potential, models vary greatly on the placement of this feature. Similarly, confidence is too low for higher wind probabilities as well. Overall, scattered to numerous storms along the warm front and dryline in central Texas will be capable of all severe hazards. Very large hail is most likely along the dryline or with storms that develop along the southern edge of any MCS. ...Red River Vicinity... Storms near the Red River and northward are more likely to be elevated. Large hail and perhaps isolated damaging gusts could occur. There is some tornado potential south of the Red River into North Texas where storms will be at least near-surface based. ...Texas Panhandle... With the upper-level low moving into parts of the Panhandle and weak surface low in the South Plains, there is potential for moisture to remain along a surface boundary. Several models show low 50s F dewpoints in the region. The question will be how much surface heating occurs. Should sufficient buoyancy develop, cold temperatures aloft will promote potential for marginally severe hail and isolated severe gusts in the strongest storms. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... With the Upper Ohio Valley cyclone moving slowly northeast, there will be potential for another round of convection to develop near the core of the upper low where greater surface heating occurs. Marginally severe hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with storms during the afternoon. ...South Texas... Forcing for ascent will be somewhat weak during the afternoon and storm development is not certain. Some model guidance suggests that storms could form during the overnight near the Rio Grande Valley as a shortwave impulse moves over South Texas and adjacent Mexico. Large hail and severe winds would be possible with any supercells that can develop. ..Wendt.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High Plains into parts of central Texas this afternoon and evening. Scattered large to very large hail and severe winds are the primary threats, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. Additional strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast and from eastern North Carolina into the central Appalachians and upper Ohio River Valley. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern continues to develop over the CONUS per recent water-vapor imagery and 00 UTC upper-air analysis, with two meandering upper lows over the Ohio River Valley and Southwest respectively. Northward moisture advection and ascent on the eastern periphery of both upper lows will promote another day of scattered thunderstorms (including strong to severe storms) across the central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and southern High Plains into the Intermountain West. ...Southern High Plains... Upper-level diffluence over the southern High Plains will continue to promote gradual surface pressure falls and a southeasterly return flow regime across far eastern NM and western TX through much of the day. Although moisture return will initially be somewhat modest, persistent broad-scale ascent over the region will result in cooling temperatures aloft/steepening mid-level lapse rates that should compensate for the poor moisture quality. Thunderstorm development is expected initially within a warm advection regime across south-central TX by early afternoon with additional storm development by late afternoon across the Permian basin in closer proximity to a deepening lee trough/sharpening dryline. Across both regions, deep-layer wind shear on the order of 50 knots should promote supercells with an attendant threat for large hail. Across south-central TX, higher-quality moisture and stronger veering in the lowest 1-2 km AGL may support a tornado threat. By early evening, a shortwave trough embedded within the mean flow (observable in water-vapor imagery off the southern CA coast as of 06 UTC) is forecast to overspread southwest TX. Stronger surface pressure falls associated with this shortwave will induce strengthening low-level winds, which will not only enlarge low-level hodographs, but will augment moisture return into the region. Ascent within the strengthening warm advection regime should result in scattered supercell development between 00-06 UTC across the southern Permian Basin and adjacent areas of southeast NM. Given the increasingly favorable convective environment, a few long-lived supercells appear possible and will be capable of producing large to very large (2+ inch) hail and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. Upscale growth into one or more clusters appears likely heading into the overnight hours as lift spreads northeast into northwest and central TX. There remains some uncertainty among guidance regarding the development of a more organized MCS into TX through early Tuesday morning, but cells developing within the warm advection regime ahead of the upper wave may be capable of severe hail/wind. ...Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic... Recent surface observations reveal a residual front/marine boundary draped from eastern VA into the eastern Carolinas. East of this boundary, richer low-level moisture in the form of low to mid-60s dewpoints is noted extending northward into southeast PA. Aloft, an embedded shortwave orbiting around the primary upper low is noted over the mid-MS River Valley in recent water-vapor imagery. This feature is expected to pivot into the Mid-Atlantic and central Appalachians through the afternoon/evening and will be favorably timed with the diurnal heating cycle. The combination of cold temperatures aloft in proximity to the upper low and rich low-level moisture will limit capping and promote thunderstorm initiation along the boundary by early afternoon from the DelMarVa region into NC. Further to the northwest, lift ahead of the embedded shortwave combined with cold mid-level temperatures should promote thunderstorm development across WV and OH by late afternoon. Across both regions, 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and elongated, nearly straight hodographs should promote organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Similar thermodynamic and kinematic environments were observed yesterday across the region, and yielded isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, including a couple of supercells. ...Eastern Florida Coast... Regional 00 UTC soundings sampled somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates atop a seasonally moist boundary layer (characterized by upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) with limited inhibition. Heating of this air mass should eliminate any residual capping by late morning and early afternoon as temperatures climb into the 80s. Convective initiation will become more probable by mid/late afternoon as confluence along sea-breeze boundaries increases. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, and 30-40 knot mid-level flow should promote a few organized cells capable of producing large hail and damaging gusts. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

MD 0688 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WRN TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0688 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1040 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...parts of wrn TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050340Z - 050545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated intense cell may persist south/southeast of Midland perhaps another hour or so, before dissipating. DISCUSSION...One isolated intense cell, which impacted the Wink TX vicinity a couple of hours ago with severe hail and a localized gusts in excess of 65 kt, has been maintained. It appears that this has been supported by lift associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, as it propagates along a thermal gradient around the 700 mb level. Based on a NAM-based objective analysis, there may be a narrow corridor of (relatively) better instability along this track, but strong shear may be the more prominent factor (aided by low-level easterlies veering to 40-50 kt west-southwesterly flow around 500) in maintaining this cell. Even so, the stronger convection has shown some recent contraction in size and decrease in intensity. Based on the objective instability analysis, and latest surface observations, there appears increasing potential for it to begin a more rapid dissipation by the time it reaches the Glasscock/Reagan counties vicinity around 05Z, if not earlier. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MAF... LAT...LON 31750196 31720164 31580150 31480167 31590208 31750196 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0687 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST SC...EASTERN NC
Mesoscale Discussion 0687 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...Northeast SC...eastern NC Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 050016Z - 050145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms may continue through the evening. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong storms have developed near a weakly confluent surface front across parts of the eastern Carolinas this evening. Earlier modest heating of a moist environment has resulted in MLCAPE of near/above 1000 J/kg, while moderate southwesterly flow along the periphery of the OH/TN Valley midlevel cyclone is providing sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization. With rather prominent midlevel dryness noted in WV imagery and generally limited large-scale ascent, coverage and intensity of storms this evening may generally be relatively limited. However, a couple of left-moving cells have been able to move northward and remain within the confluence zone, resulting in locally greater storm intensity and longevity. Hail and locally gusty winds could accompany the strongest storms through the evening, before cooling and stabilization becomes more prominent later tonight. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/05/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS... LAT...LON 35167892 36277864 36327781 36207730 35387752 34627800 33947837 33107947 33357994 34167936 35167892 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the late evening hours across parts of southeast New Mexico and western Texas as well as across parts of the central Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will continue to become established aloft across the country as a pair of upper lows linger over the OH River Valley and Southwest. Broad scale ascent ahead of both of these low will continue to promote thunderstorm chances across the eastern U.S. and the Intermountain West through early Monday morning. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... As of 00 UTC, a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting into the upper OH River Valley, coupled with weak mid-level warm advection, continues to promote widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms. A recent 00 UTC sounding from Pittsburg, PA sampled limited mixed-layer buoyancy, but recent high-res guidance and mesoanalysis estimates suggests a corridor of somewhat higher buoyancy (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) resides from northern WV into western PA. Additionally, 30-40 knot mid-level flow sampled by the recent RAOB is adequate to support supercells. The thermodynamic environment should continue to wane heading into the overnight hours, and stronger forcing for ascent will increasingly overspread a less buoyant air mass to the north, though a severe hail threat may persist for the next couple of hours. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia... Thunderstorms continue to develop and propagate along a weakly confluent marine boundary draped from south-central VA into the eastern Carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps best sampled by the 00 UTC CHS sounding). A localized hail/wind threat should persist with ongoing convection given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, but nocturnal cooling should increase low-level stability and limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the overnight hours. Latest guidance hints that an early-morning (10-12 UTC) round of thunderstorms is possible across north-central NC into southeast VA. Strong mid-level flow should remain over the region and may support organized cells with an attendant hail/wind threat. ...New Mexico into western Texas... Long-lived supercells continue to migrate across far southeast NM into western TX as of 00 UTC. A strengthening low-level jet will help elongate low to mid-level hodographs as well as maintain moisture advection from the southeast. As a result, supercell maintenance is likely for the next few hours before cells drift further east into TX and out of the primary low-level jet/moist advection axis. Persistent lift across the region in the vicinity of the terminus of the low-level jet and within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet may support additional strong/severe storms later tonight. However, more limited buoyancy/increased inhibition should limit storm coverage. Therefore, opted to remove Slight-risk caliber risk probabilities, but maintain low-end probabilities to address the severe potential for additional overnight storms. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY...PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will remain possible through the late evening hours across parts of southeast New Mexico and western Texas as well as across parts of the central Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas and southeast Virginia. ...Synopsis... An omega blocking pattern will continue to become established aloft across the country as a pair of upper lows linger over the OH River Valley and Southwest. Broad scale ascent ahead of both of these low will continue to promote thunderstorm chances across the eastern U.S. and the Intermountain West through early Monday morning. ...Upper Ohio River Valley... As of 00 UTC, a lobe of mid-level vorticity pivoting into the upper OH River Valley, coupled with weak mid-level warm advection, continues to promote widely scattered strong/severe thunderstorms. A recent 00 UTC sounding from Pittsburg, PA sampled limited mixed-layer buoyancy, but recent high-res guidance and mesoanalysis estimates suggests a corridor of somewhat higher buoyancy (500-750 J/kg MLCAPE) resides from northern WV into western PA. Additionally, 30-40 knot mid-level flow sampled by the recent RAOB is adequate to support supercells. The thermodynamic environment should continue to wane heading into the overnight hours, and stronger forcing for ascent will increasingly overspread a less buoyant air mass to the north, though a severe hail threat may persist for the next couple of hours. ...Coastal Carolinas into southeast Virginia... Thunderstorms continue to develop and propagate along a weakly confluent marine boundary draped from south-central VA into the eastern Carolinas. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s continue to contribute to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE (perhaps best sampled by the 00 UTC CHS sounding). A localized hail/wind threat should persist with ongoing convection given adequate buoyancy and deep-layer shear, but nocturnal cooling should increase low-level stability and limit thunderstorm coverage and intensity through the overnight hours. Latest guidance hints that an early-morning (10-12 UTC) round of thunderstorms is possible across north-central NC into southeast VA. Strong mid-level flow should remain over the region and may support organized cells with an attendant hail/wind threat. ...New Mexico into western Texas... Long-lived supercells continue to migrate across far southeast NM into western TX as of 00 UTC. A strengthening low-level jet will help elongate low to mid-level hodographs as well as maintain moisture advection from the southeast. As a result, supercell maintenance is likely for the next few hours before cells drift further east into TX and out of the primary low-level jet/moist advection axis. Persistent lift across the region in the vicinity of the terminus of the low-level jet and within the left-exit region of an approaching upper jet may support additional strong/severe storms later tonight. However, more limited buoyancy/increased inhibition should limit storm coverage. Therefore, opted to remove Slight-risk caliber risk probabilities, but maintain low-end probabilities to address the severe potential for additional overnight storms. ..Moore.. 05/05/2025 Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW GDP TO 25 NW CNM TO 40 ESE ROW TO 40 N HOB TO 55 NNE HOB. ..KERR..05/05/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC011-015-025-050140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DE BACA EDDY LEA TXC003-079-103-109-135-165-301-389-475-495-501-050140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS COCHRAN CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 222 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041920Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph may also occur, along with a tornado or two primarily this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Roswell NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Gleason Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun May 4 22:16:05 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the extended period. Some windy/dry conditions will continue across far west Texas as southern stream westerly flow aloft continues with an upper-level low slowly drifting out of the Plains through D5/Thursday. Heights will then rise across the Southwest with building high pressure aloft. This upper-level ridge will slowly build into the central US through the extended period, bringing lighter winds across the areas where fuels remain the driest. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may occur across Montana and the Dakotas as occasional shortwaves traverse the northern periphery of the ridge across the southern Canada. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0222 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 222 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0684. ..GRAMS..05/04/25 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...EPZ...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 222 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC005-009-011-015-025-027-035-041-042140- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAVES CURRY DE BACA EDDY LEA LINCOLN OTERO ROOSEVELT TXC003-017-079-103-109-135-165-301-389-475-495-501-042140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BAILEY COCHRAN CRANE CULBERSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING REEVES WARD WINKLER YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 222 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 041920Z - 050300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 222 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM MDT Sun May 4 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for mainly large to very large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter this afternoon and evening. Isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph may also occur, along with a tornado or two primarily this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 75 miles north of Roswell NM to 45 miles south southwest of Wink TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and possibly a tornado or two may occur. Additional sporadic severe storms are possible over the Ohio Valley and Atlantic Coast. ...20z Update... Mid afternoon water vapor imagery shows two well-defined upper lows ongoing across the CONUS. Ascent from these features is supporting several clusters of strong to severe storms. While buoyancy is somewhat limited, moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support a risk for damaging gusts and marginally severe hail with more organized/persistent clusters across parts of the OH Valley, Carolinas and parts of FL this afternoon and evening. Probabilities have been trimmed from the west where storms are moving offshore across FL. Across the west, supercells with large to very large hail, damaging gusts and perhaps a tornado or two will remain likely from parts of southeastern NM into west TX. Upslope flow is supporting an increase in storm coverage this afternoon. As destabilization continues, scattered severe storms are likely into this evening. Have adjusted severe probabilities slightly farther west to better capture convective initiation off the higher terrain. See Severe Thunderstorm Watch 222 for additional information. ...Great Basin and western US... Beneath the western upper low, scattered thunderstorms have developed and will likely persist into this evening from the Four Corners into parts of the Great Basin. Cool mid-level temperatures are supporting weak, but sufficient buoyancy for occasional stronger storms. Moderate deep-layer shear may also support occasional storm organization. While meager surface moisture will limit a more robust threat, a sporadic damaging gust and/or small hail cannot be ruled out from any stronger storms/clusters that persist, especially over northwestern AZ and southern NV where buoyancy and shear may be locally enhanced beneath the cyclone aloft. ..Lyons.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...New Mexico and West Texas... Large-scale ascent will increase this afternoon across NM and the southern High Plains as strong difluence aloft associated with an upper low over northwest Mexico and the Southwest moves eastward. Steep lapse rates aloft atop modest low-level moisture will act in tandem with daytime heating to foster up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE across eastern NM and far west TX by mid afternoon. While low-level southeasterly flow will initially be modest, various RAP/NAM forecast soundings show substantial veering and some strengthening with height at mid/upper levels. Resultant long/straight hodographs aloft and strong deep-layer shear will likely support a few supercells with an attendant threat for large to very large hail (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Isolated severe wind gusts may also occur as this convection spreads slowly eastward across eastern NM into parts of west TX through the evening. Although low-level moisture will remain modest, a southeasterly low-level jet is also expected to gradually strengthen this evening, which should support enough 0-1 km SRH for a tornado or two with any sustained supercell. These thunderstorms will eventually weaken with eastward extent into west TX as MLCIN gradually increases by mid/late evening. ...Upper Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic to the Carolinas... An expansive closed mid/upper-level low will remain centered over the OH/TN Valleys today. A belt of stronger south-southwesterly mid-level winds will overspread parts of the upper OH Valley and southern Mid-Atlantic through this evening. This enhanced flow along with upper-level difluence should provide sufficient large-scale ascent for isolated to scattered convection this afternoon across parts of OH into WV and western PA. Low-level moisture will remain somewhat limited across this area, with surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 50s. Even with filtered daytime heating, poor lapse rates aloft should keep any more than weak instability from developing. Various RAP forecast soundings across this region also show flow backing with height aloft, which lends considerable uncertainty regarding convective organization. While an isolated damaging wind/hail threat may exist, the overall environment should keep the severe threat fairly marginal. A somewhat separate area of convection may develop this afternoon across eastern NC into VA, generally along/ahead of a weak surface front. While these thunderstorms will have access to greater low-level moisture, both instability and deep-layer shear are expected to remain modest. Still, some risk for damaging winds and hail should exist with any cells or clusters that can develop, before this activity gradually weakens through the evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across parts of the southern/central FL Peninsula. A subtropical upper-level jet should continue to aid thunderstorm development across the FL Peninsula through the afternoon. But, persistent cloud cover and poor lapse rates aloft noted on area 12Z soundings may hinder destabilization to some degree. Even so, a rather moist low-level airmass exists along/south of a front over north FL/far southeast GA, and even modest further heating should support sufficient instability for surface-based convection. With weak low-level flow gradually veering to westerly and strengthening at mid/upper levels, this activity should have enough deep-layer shear for modest updraft organization. Thunderstorms may preferentially form on/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon while posing an isolated threat for severe hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a brief tornado. ...Eastern Idaho into Southern Montana... As a mid-level trough moves eastward over western Canada and the northern Rockies, scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon and evening across eastern Idaho into southwest Montana. This region will have steep mid-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft associated with the shortwave trough. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain modest, but a couple of stronger cores with small hail and gusty winds could still occur. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z An Elevated area was added across portions of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota with this update. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, potential for overlap of RH minimums in the low to mid 20s amid sustained winds 15-20 (gusting 30-35 mph) will be possible again Monday afternoon. Guidance has generally been running too high in minimum RH forecasts compared to observations, which supports lower RH than forecast Monday afternoon. In addition, several grass fires have been observed on satellite Sunday afternoon. As such, an Elevated is warranted to cover the potential for another period of fire weather concern on Monday. ..Thornton.. 05/04/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0209 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to shift into West Texas on Monday as a dryline consolidates in tandem with a deepening surface low through late afternoon. Lingering fire weather concerns are also possible through the Red River Valley of the north and across parts of southern New Mexico. ...West Texas... The upper wave currently over southern CA will continue to shift east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern High Plains by late Monday afternoon. Southwesterly winds increasing to 15-25 mph behind a sharpening dryline will advect dry air from northern Mexico into West Texas. Relative humidity values falling into the teens to low 20s are likely by peak heating when boundary-layer mixing (and wind gust potential) will be maximized. Latest high-res guidance suggests a corridor of elevated fire weather is likely with localized critical conditions possible. ERC values between the 80th to 90th percentile should support the fire weather concern. ...New Mexico... Breezy west/southwest winds are likely Monday afternoon as the surface low consolidates to the east/southeast across West Texas. An influx of slightly more moist air from the west and mid-level cloud cover should limit diurnal heating and afternoon RH reductions to some degree. Latest ensemble guidance suggests that the best potential for sustained elevated fire weather conditions resides along the I-25 corridor in southwest NM where downslope warming/drying out of the Gila Region may promote locally drier/windier conditions. Risk probabilities were withheld for this outlook due to the weak ensemble signal/model dispersion and potential for precipitation over the next 24 hours within this corridor. ...Red River Valley of the North... Southerly gradient wind are expected to persist through Monday afternoon across much of eastern ND and northwest MN. With limited moisture return expected through the next 48 hours, afternoon RH minimums may fall into the low to mid 20s once again. Elevated conditions are possible, though a weaker wind signal compared to D1/Sunday, and the potential for a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon, limit confidence in the overall fire threat. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed if guidance trends towards stronger winds and/or a later cold front arrival. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible. ...OK/TX to LA... An upper shortwave trough will develop eastward across TX to the Lower MS Valley on Tuesday. Enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region as low-level moist advection aids in a weakly capped and moderately unstable environment across parts of central/east TX. A warm front is forecast to slowly lift northward into north TX/the Red River vicinity. Meanwhile, a dryline will extend southward across central TX. The forecast is complicated by likely ongoing convection Tuesday morning, both along the warm front and possibly with a remnant cluster across central Texas. Downstream, dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F within the warm sector and steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a corridor of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Supercell wind profiles will support organized convection, though storm mode remains a bit uncertain. It is possible discrete cells could develop along the dryline and shift east during the afternoon/evening. Clustering along the warm front also could result in a developing MCS. While details remain uncertain, potential for significant all-hazards severe is possible and outlook upgrades may be needed in later outlooks. With northward extent across the Red River Valley into the ArkLaTex, cooler temperatures to the north of the warm front, and more widespread precipitation/cloud cover will limit stronger destabilization. Nevertheless, moderate shear within the warm frontal zone and steep midlevel lapse rates could support isolated severe potential in the form of hail and strong gusts. ..Leitman.. 05/04/2025 Read more

MD 0679 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0679 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...portions of the southern Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041737Z - 042000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat may accompany the stronger, longer lasting storms, with strong wind gusts and hail being the main threats. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multiple multicellular clusters/possible transient supercells have developed across the southern FL Peninsula amid a destabilizing airmass. Surface temperatures are well into the 80s F, with surface dewpoints exceeding 70 F, contributing to over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE given 7+ C/km low-level lapse rates. A 60+ kt 300 mb wind maximum is approaching the southern FL Peninsula, which will contribute to elongated mid/upper-level hodographs. The resulting deep-layer speed shear (perhaps exceeding 40 kts) should support the production of both hail and strong wind gusts in the longer lived, more organized storms, especially if a sustained supercell can materialize. A tornado also cannot be completely ruled out with any storms interacting with outflow or sea-breeze boundaries. Overall though, the severe threat should remain isolated, so a WW issuance is not anticipated. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB... LAT...LON 25378052 25908096 26298122 26858127 27118084 27168032 27018007 26268000 25898002 25528021 25308032 25378052 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 0680 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025 Areas affected...eastern parts of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 041759Z - 042030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Sparse strong wind gusts may accompany the stronger storms that develop, and an instance of hail cannot be ruled out. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are maturing along a remnant frontal boundary across the northern Florida Peninsula, and are poised to progress into a destabilizing airmass, where over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE is already in place. Despite adequate buoyancy, deep-layer shear is expected to be weaker compared to the southern FL Peninsula, where the 300 mb jet maximum will be located later this afternoon. As such, the modest buoyancy and mediocre shear profile should limit severe wind and hail from becoming widespread, though a couple of strong wind gusts are still possible, along with an instance of hail. Given the isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance appears unlikely. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/04/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 27238151 28048174 29408213 30058222 30398220 30498188 30208148 29208097 28678064 28388061 27768043 27438033 27178046 27088097 27098116 27238151 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more