SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today, but isolated thunderstorms may occur along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong height falls will develop across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching and amplifying shortwave trough. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge by late morning into afternoon. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may influence isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary, and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy and lapse rates for parcels to potentially reach levels required for lightning. A few lightning flashes may also occur mainly this morning across parts of the Mid-South and Lower Mississippi Valley. ..Guyer.. 10/27/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward into the central Rockies and northern Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates eastward into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move east-southeastward across the Upper Midwest and central Plains. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along and ahead of the front during the afternoon. Sufficient instability combined with strong low-level flow, and lift associated with the upper-level trough will be favorable for severe storms across parts of the region. The most favorable area for severe storms appears to be from north Texas and Oklahoma northeastward into western and northern Missouri. GFS forecast soundings along this corridor during the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 40 and 50 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. If this environement can materialize, supercell development with large hail and severe wind gusts could occur. A chance for very large hail will be possible with the more intense cells. An isolated tornado threat also appears possible. On Thursday, the upper-level trough is forecast to move into the Great Lakes region, as the cold front advances southeastward into the Ohio Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible along parts of the front where surface temperatures are able to warm sufficiently. The strongest low to mid-level flow is forecast over the mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valley suggesting that the potential for organized severe convection could be displaced away from the strongest instability. Even so, instability is forecast to remain weak which appears to be the main limiting factor. ...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8... On Friday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward into the north-central U.S., as moisture return takes place in western parts of the southern Plains. It appears that thunderstorm development will be possible across parts of west Texas within the northwestern part of a moist airmass. Large-scale ascent is forecast to remain relative weak suggesting that any severe threat could be isolated. On Sunday, southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast over the Great Plains, as low-level moisture advection continues. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible within this moist airmass as surface temperatures warm during the day. At this time, forecast instability and shear appear marginal for severe storms, and any organized convection should be relatively isolated. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible Tuesday night from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located between the western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. upper-level ridge. This will help to maintain a broad belt of strong low-level flow across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F along a narrow corridor from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains, as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front from the evening into the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. NAM forecast soundings ahead of the front from eastern Nebraska northeastward into southern Minnesota have 0-6 km shear steadily increasing from the evening into the overnight, with 0-6 km shear peaking in the 60 to 70 knot range late Tuesday night. Instability is also forecast to increase Tuesday night, with MLCAPE reaching the 500 to 750 J/Kg range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to reach 7 C/km in some areas. The environment should support isolated supercell development with a potential for hail. Storms that develop behind the front will likely be elevated. Isolated surface-based storms are also expected to the east of the front, where a few marginally severe wind gusts may occur. The limitation for this scenario is that much of the convective development is expected to take place overnight, when thermodynamics will not be as favorable. This may keep any severe threat localized and marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts, will be possible Tuesday night from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Southwesterly mid-level flow will be located between the western U.S. trough and an eastern U.S. upper-level ridge. This will help to maintain a broad belt of strong low-level flow across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley. By Tuesday evening, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the 60s F along a narrow corridor from the central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward into the central Plains, as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. Thunderstorms are expected to develop near the front from the evening into the overnight period as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching trough. NAM forecast soundings ahead of the front from eastern Nebraska northeastward into southern Minnesota have 0-6 km shear steadily increasing from the evening into the overnight, with 0-6 km shear peaking in the 60 to 70 knot range late Tuesday night. Instability is also forecast to increase Tuesday night, with MLCAPE reaching the 500 to 750 J/Kg range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to reach 7 C/km in some areas. The environment should support isolated supercell development with a potential for hail. Storms that develop behind the front will likely be elevated. Isolated surface-based storms are also expected to the east of the front, where a few marginally severe wind gusts may occur. The limitation for this scenario is that much of the convective development is expected to take place overnight, when thermodynamics will not be as favorable. This may keep any severe threat localized and marginal. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ..Lyons.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop on Monday across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, in the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes. No severe weather is expected. ...DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge will remain in place across the lower Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region on Monday, as an upper-level trough moves into the Intermountain West. In the wake of the trough, thunderstorms will be possible near the coast in the Pacific Northwest. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop near the Four Corners as a large-scale ascent increases ahead of the trough, and as surface temperatures warm during the day. Additional thunderstorms may form across the Great Lakes Monday night as warm advection, associated with a broad low-level jet, increases across the region. No severe threat is expected to develop across the continental United States Monday and Monday night. ..Broyles.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific Northwest and coastal Carolinas. ...Discussion... Strong mid-level height falls will spread across the Pacific Northwest today in response to an approaching short-wave trough. Cooling profiles aloft will encourage steepening lapse rates and thermodynamic profiles will become more favorable for weak convection within the developing onshore flow regime. Forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for lighting discharge as early as 17z at UIL, thus thunder probabilities will be maintained along the Pacific Northwest coast. Across the Carolinas, a low-amplitude short-wave trough will dig southeast across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. This feature may aid isolated weak convection near the coast where low-level convergence will be maximized. Additionally, weak elevated instability will develop along the cool side of the boundary and forecast soundings exhibit adequate buoyancy/lapse rates for parcels to reach levels required for lightning. Even so, this activity will remain weak and limited. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...01z Update... Weak surface front is sagging south early this evening, currently extending from central SC-northern AL-Arklatex. Weak buoyancy developed along/ahead of this boundary this afternoon which contributed to isolated thunderstorms, primarily over the southern Appalachian region and over the Arklatex. While isolated weak convection persists in these areas, along with a few flashes of lightning, continued nocturnal cooling should lead to weaker/shallower updrafts over the next few hours. A few flashes of lighting may be noted with weak convection later tonight across the Pacific northwest. Otherwise, most of the CONUS will remain thunderstorm free. ..Darrow.. 10/27/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Oct 26 22:21:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Oct 26 22:21:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z A deep upper-level trough will move through the West early to mid-next week as an amplified upper-level ridge shifts from the central to the eastern US. Well above normal temperatures will develop under the ridge, especially from the southern/central Plains through the Midwest and Great Lakes. A cold front will push through the West and northern Plains by Day 4/Tuesday and much of the High Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes by Day 6/Thursday. ...Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday: Southwest, southern/central Plains, and Midwest... On Day 3/Monday, locally critical conditions are likely from southeast Arizona through southern New Mexico onto portions of the southern Plains as south-southwest winds strengthen amid low RH. The eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf. Elevated to possibly locally critical conditions are forecast for portions of far southern Nevada and southwest Utah into western Arizona as well. Strong winds will continue on Day 4/Tuesday across the Southwest and the southern/central Plains but increasing Gulf moisture will sharpen and shift the dryline westward leaving a narrow corridor of critical winds/RH overlapping receptive fuels. Elevated to locally critical conditions may extend farther north into Kansas and possibly Nebraska ahead of the approaching cold front. Dry/breezy conditions will develop again in the Texas Panhandle/vicinity on Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front. The moisture return ahead of the upper-level trough across the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Midwest, and Great Lakes is forecast to be non-uniform and remains a source of forecast uncertainty. Areas of shallower/lower moisture amid strong southerly flow are likely on Day 3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday ahead of the cold front, which could lead to transient elevated fire weather conditions as the fuels are very/record dry in portions of the Eastern Area. It is possible, if not likely, fire risk areas will be delineated in subsequent outlooks, probably within the range of high-resolution forecast guidance. Additionally, cloud cover over the Plains and Midwest/Great Lakes may mitigate/shift fire weather concerns. ...Rest of CONUS... Dry northwesterly flow will continue across much of the Northeast on Day 3/Monday. Locally elevated conditions are possible with minimum RH below 20% in portions of eastern New England, but winds are likely to be mostly below 10 mph. Northerly/offshore winds remain likely in portions of southern California Day 4/Tuesday into Day 6/Thursday. However, critical winds/RH are unlikely and will be preceded with onshore flow and chances of precipitation. ..Nauslar.. 10/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more