SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with severe wind gusts and large hail, are expected to develop on Wednesday from the southern Plains northward into eastern parts of the central Plains, and eastward into the Ozarks and lower Missouri Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains/Ozarks and Lower Missouri Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move northeastward across the central Plains on Wednesday, as an associated mid-level jet moves into the lower Missouri Valley. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move eastward across the central and southern Plains, with a dryline situated from central Oklahoma south-southwestward into west Texas. As surface temperatures warm and as low-level convergence increases along the front, thunderstorm development is expected to take place during the afternoon from central Kansas southward into western Oklahoma. During the mid to late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to move eastward across eastern Kansas and central to eastern Oklahoma. Some severe thunderstorms appear likely to develop. As convective coverage increases during the evening, an MCS may form across the region. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 60s F, with a narrow axis of moderate instability located in central and eastern Oklahoma. MLCAPE is forecast to peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, forecast soundings near the instability axis in the late afternoon and early evening have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. This should be favorable for supercell development. However, a mixed mode could be prevalent, especially further north into the central Plains, where instability is forecast to be weaker. The stronger rotating storms could be associated with large hail and wind damage. Model consensus has the greatest severe threat developing during the late afternoon and early evening at the southern end of the low-level jet, from southern Oklahoma into north Texas. At this point, low to mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be relatively poor, which should be a limiting factor. This could somewhat temper the magnitude of the severe threat. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... As the upper trough deepens over the west, strong southwesterly flow aloft will remain over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A sub 1000 mb lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage gusty downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...High Plains... Surface winds are expected to intensify early in the day south of the lee low across portions of the central High Plains. Heating and downslope warming beneath scattered high clouds will support RH minimums of 15-25%. The overlap of strong winds and low RH will support several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions. There remains some uncertainty on the exact areal extent of the fire-weather risk given the narrow corridor of the strongest winds are excepted to align with more limited RH from cloud cover and returning moisture, as well as fuels that are not as dry as farther east. While near-critical conditions are possible, forecast confidence remains too low to include a critical area. The most probable location for sustained critical conditions may be across parts of northeastern and eastern CO, where stronger winds and downslope drying could overlap with more receptive fuels. Farther east, strong southerly winds are likely over parts of central KS and OK. RH values are not expected to be overly low as southerly return flow advects moisture northward. However, pockets of drier air and gusts to 30+ mph could support sporadic locally elevated fire-weather conditions Tuesday afternoon given the exceptionally dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough is forecast to deepen and shift eastward over the western US today and tonight. A strong lee low will deepen over eastern CO increasing southerly flow over much of the Plains. Well above normal temperatures and strong winds will overlap with abundant and near record dry fuels. The combination of abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will support widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern and central Plains... Strong flow aloft will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the deepening trough beginning early today. Southeast of a deepening lee low over eastern CO, south/southwest winds will quickly strengthen over parts of TX, OK and KS. By midday, winds of 20-30 mph and gusts as high as 40 mph, are likely over much of the southern Plains. The strong winds are expected to overlap with areas of lower relative humidity. A corridor of 15-20% RH appears likely to overlap with the strongest winds across the eastern TX Panhandle, western OK and southern KS. Critical fire-weather conditions are likely given extremely dry fuels. Farther east into central/eastern OK and KS, high cirrus and returning surface moisture could limit RH minimums. However, wind gusts of 30+ mph and critically dry fuels still appear likely to support widespread elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions across the southern Plains. ...Southwest and Great Basin... Near the base of the upper trough, strong southwesterly flow is expected ahead of a cold front across the southern Great Basin and the Southwest. Downslope flow and warm temperatures will support RH values of 15-20% as surface winds increase to 15-20 mph. Elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely ahead of the front across the southern Great Basin and much of the Desert Southwest. ..Lyons.. 10/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID MISSOURI AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, are expected Tuesday night from the mid Missouri and upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestern into northern sections of the southern Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday, as an associated mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the northern Plains as a low deepens in southwestern Nebraska. As low-level flow and convergence increase along the front during the evening, convective initiation appears likely. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop from the central Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley within the mid to late evening, where instability should be sufficient for isolated severe storms. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to gradually increase in the overnight period, with additional storms developing over northern parts of the southern Plains. The latest ECMWF model forecast suggests that the most favorable area for severe thunderstorm development will be in the mid Missouri Valley during the late evening on Tuesday. NAM forecast soundings near and to the north of Omaha at 06Z/Wednesday show a capping inversion above 850 mb, with MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg, effective shear of 45 to 50 knots, and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment would support supercells with isolated large hail. Storms that develop to the east of the boundary will likely be elevated with hail as the primary threat. Storms that form near the front will have more of chance to be surface-based. Any intense cell that can become surface or nearly surface-based could produce isolated severe wind gusts. As storm coverage increases overnight, a marginal severe threat should be maintained due to the strengthening low-level flow, with the severe threat areal coverage expanding south-southwestward with time. The late convective initiation and lack of instability are the main limiting factors preventing an outlook upgrade at this time. ..Broyles.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Mon Oct 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning may be noted across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest early in the period. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop later in the day across the Four Corners region. Scattered convection is expected across the Great Lakes during the overnight hours. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern favors very few regions of deep convection, and in those areas any storms that form will remain weak and mostly isolated, especially in the west. Latest model guidance continues to suggest strong height falls across much of the western US as upper troughing advances inland. Cool, steep profiles may support a few flashes of lightning with shallow convection near the Pacific Coast early in the period. Otherwise, steepening lapse rates across the interior Great Basin/Four Corners should contribute to isolated convection, some of which may generate lightning later in the day. During the latter half of the period, strong LLJ will develop across the Plains, and low-level warm advection will increase over the upper Great Lakes. Elevated convection appears possible during the overnight hours as modestly steep mid-level lapse rates allow weak buoyancy to develop across this region. ..Darrow/Lyons.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. ...01z Update... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature is forecast to move inland around sunrise, and 500mb temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees through 27/12z. Weak buoyancy is noted ahead of this feature, primarily where the boundary layer is influenced by marine conditions. 00z sounding from UIL was the most unstable profile along the coast this evening, but MLCAPE was less than 100 J/kg, though 8 c/km lapse rates were noted in the 3-6km layer. Weak convection will continue to develop within this regime, and the deepest updrafts may reach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Though thunderstorm activity should remain quite sparse, and concentrated near the water. ..Darrow.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few flashes of lightning remain possible along the Pacific Northwest coast tonight. ...01z Update... Water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper trough off the Pacific Northwest coast. This feature is forecast to move inland around sunrise, and 500mb temperatures are expected to cool a few more degrees through 27/12z. Weak buoyancy is noted ahead of this feature, primarily where the boundary layer is influenced by marine conditions. 00z sounding from UIL was the most unstable profile along the coast this evening, but MLCAPE was less than 100 J/kg, though 8 c/km lapse rates were noted in the 3-6km layer. Weak convection will continue to develop within this regime, and the deepest updrafts may reach levels necessary for lightning discharge. Though thunderstorm activity should remain quite sparse, and concentrated near the water. ..Darrow.. 10/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 041200Z A strong upper-level trough will move through the West during the first half of the week before ejecting into the Plains midweek. At the same time, an amplified mid-level ridge will move east from the Plains into the East resulting in near-record to record high temperatures beneath the ridge. By late week, a cooler, more moist airmass will develop across the eastern US in the wake a cold front associated with the aforementioned trough ejecting into the Plains midweek. ... Day 3/Tuesday - Day 4/Wednesday: Southern Plains and Southern and Central High Plains ... Strong winds will develop across the southern and central Plains on Tuesday in response to continued lee cyclogenesis over the High Plains. These southerly winds (beginning on Day 2/Monday) will draw moisture north and westward, squeezing the geographic area between strong winds and low relative humidity. At present the best overlap looks to be in a narrow ribbon from far West Texas north-northeast across eastern New Mexico, western portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Kansas/eastern Colorado. One important caveat in highlighting this corridor is that the exact location of elevated/locally critical conditions will be highly dependent upon several factors: (1) west/northwest return of low-level moisture; (2) potential cloud cover; (3) speed of ejecting trough and surface cold front. By Day 4/Wednesday, the surface low begins to move northeast into the Plains and a surface cold front will push south. To the southwest of the surface low and ahead of the cold front, a corridor of low relative humidity and increased winds will be possible. This area will be bounded by the dryline to the east and cold front to the north. Again, like Day 3/Tuesday, the area will need to be refined as confidence in the location and timing of these features comes into better focus. Elsewhere, the large-scale pattern will favor a period of northerly/offshore flow across southern California on Day 3/Tuesday through D5/Thursday. However, potential preceding rains and onshore flow should prevent critical fire weather conditions from developing. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z Only minor updates were made to the ongoing forecast. The ongoing elevated area was expanded northward slightly along the Arizona/New Mexico border were locally critical conditions may develop during the afternoon. Additionally, the elevated was expanded to the northwest across the southern Plains to include southeast Colorado and western Kansas. Here, winds and relative humidity may approach critical levels in the afternoon, however, extensive cloud cover should help mitigate the wind/rh combination. Across Oklahoma and Kansas, high-resolution guidance is coming into alignment that dense high-level cirrus clouds may develop within the southwest flow aloft. This may help to limit relative humidity from dropping as low as it otherwise could. That said, strong winds (gusting to around 30 mph), dry fuels, and relative humidity in the 20s and 30s will still support erratic fire behavior should fires start. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will deepen and shift eastward over the western US Monday as mid-level flow intensifies. Preceded by an amplified upper-level ridge, well above normal temperatures will continue as gusty wins increase over the Plains. Near record dryness, abnormally high temperatures and strong winds will likely support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... As the upper-trough deepens over the western US, strong flow aloft will intensify ahead of it across the Southwest and southern Plains. A lee trough will deepen to the east, bolstering southwesterly surface winds of 15-25 mph. Dry downslope flow overlapping with RH of 15-20% will support widespread elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions. The most likely corridor for sustained near-critical conditions appears to be across parts of the central TX Panhandle. Here, winds may gust upwards of 30 mph with RH as low as 15%. However, model consensus on the duration/overlap of the stronger winds, lower RH and the driest fuels is low. Additionally, stronger surface winds are possible farther north and west, but less receptive fuels should limit concerns. Across parts of KS and OK, the eastward extent of elevated to locally critical conditions remains uncertain. Dependent on the moisture return from the Gulf given more southerly winds, RH will not be as low. However, strong wind gusts of 25-35 mph and RH near 30% may still support several hours of elevated fire danger given very dry fuels and recent fire activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Oct 27 19:37:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Oct 27 19:37:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...20Z Update... No changes were needed with this update. See the previous discussion below for details. ..Weinman.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Strong height falls will occur across the Pacific Northwest today as a shortwave trough moves eastward over this region. Cooling temperatures aloft will encourage steepening mid-level lapse rates as thermodynamic profiles gradually become favorable for isolated weak convection. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest parcels could attain heights necessary for occasional lighting discharge by late this morning into the afternoon, with continued thunderstorm potential this evening and overnight. Convection along/near a surface front in southeast AR and northern MS will remain capable of producing isolated lightning in the short term given the presence of weak MUCAPE. Even though large-scale ascent will remain weak, additional thunderstorms may develop this afternoon farther south along/near the front as daytime heating occurs across parts of the ArkLaTex. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will spread southeastward across the southern Appalachians during the late afternoon. Based on where a surface front is currently located, this feature should support convection generally remaining off the SC Coast, where low-level convergence and instability will be maximized over the Gulf Stream. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, with hail and strong wind gusts, remain possible Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning, from the central Plains north-northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Four Corners region Tuesday and eject into the Plains states Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Through the day Tuesday, surface lee troughing will encourage appreciable low-level moisture return ahead of a surface front that is expected to be draped across the Plains states through the period. Substantial mid-level inhibition should limit robust thunderstorm development through much of Tuesday. However, mid-level cooling should gradually overspread the moist axis ahead of the surface cold front overnight, supporting at least scattered thunderstorm development across the Plains states into the Upper MS Valley into early Wednesday morning. Substantial low-level warm-air advection associated with a strong low-level jet, overspread by strong southwesterly 500 mb flow and accompanying cooler temperatures, will yield destabilization amid increasing vertical shear across the Plains states. Here, at least isolated severe storms will be possible, mainly within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning time frame. ...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley... Guidance consensus shows a 75+ kt southwesterly 500 mb speed max ejecting into the central Plains from the central/southern Rockies in the 06-12Z Wednesday time frame. At the same time, low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints are expected to advect north-northwestward up to the cold front. Forecast soundings depict an erosion of the capping layer along the surface cold front, driven by 800-600 mb cooling, as the aforementioned mid-level speed max overspreads the central High Plains. 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates atop low to mid 60s F surface dewpoints may yield over 1500 J/kg MLCAPE along the cold front over the central Plains, with 500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Upper MS Valley. A 50-60 kt south-southwesterly low-level jet beneath the southwesterly 500 mb speed max will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear. As such, transient supercells and small bowing line segments capable of isolated severe hail/gusts could develop if adequate buoyancy can develop ahead of the cold front before sunrise. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain likely across parts of the coastal Pacific Northwest, the Four Corners region, and across the Great Lakes tomorrow (Monday). No severe weather is expected. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will amplify across the western and central CONUS, supporting broad surface lee troughing and accompanying low-level moisture return across the Plains and MS Valleys tomorrow (Monday). Cooler temperatures aloft, combined with strong synoptic forcing for ascent, will promote isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development near the shoreline of the Pacific Northwest, and across the Four Corners region. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air advection will transpire across the Great Lakes Monday evening into the overnight as the terminus of a pronounced low-level jet overspreads the region. Here, low-level convergence will foster the potential for at least isolated thunderstorm development. Finally, isolated thunderstorms may develop just off the coast of the Carolinas as richer low-level moisture meanders along the Atlantic Coastline. However, thunderstorms should remain far enough offshore to preclude thunderstorm highlights this outlook. ..Squitieri.. 10/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. ... Mid-Atlantic to southern New England ... South of the ongoing elevated fire weather highlights a very dry airmass will remain in place, with relative humidity falling into the low 20s to perhaps even the upper teens in localized areas. Current wind forecasts (less than 10 mph) should limit extreme fire behavior as compared to areas farther north, which is why the existing elevated area was not extended southward. That said, the dry airmass and record dry fuels in place will certainly support an increase in fire starts and initial attack. ..Marsh.. 10/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CDT Sun Oct 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A deepening trough over the western US is forecast to amplify as southwesterly flow over much of the western US increases. A lee trough over the High Plains will bolster downslope surface winds across the western US. To the east, high pressure should continue to intensify supporting offshore winds over New England behind an offshore cold front. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given unusually warm, dry and windy conditions over the CONUS. ...Lee of the Rockies and High Plains... Increasingly strong west/southwest flow ahead of the trough will support gusty winds across the Rockies and Northern High Plains. Near a lee trough, downslope winds of 15-20 mph are likely, coincident with a relatively dry air mass with RH values near 20%. Sustained elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions appear likely across parts of central MT, eastern WY, and into western parts of the Dakotas and NE/CO. Here, fuels are the most receptive and the longest overlap of favorable meteorological conditions is expected. ...Southern New England... While slightly weaker than prior days, offshore flow should continue across parts of the East Coast and southern New England today. Gusty winds near 15 mph are possible, mainly closer to the coast, where RH values are still expected to be near 30-35%. A few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible within record dry fuels. Concerns will ease as high pressure shifts eastward, weakening winds and cooler air mass will moderate RH values into Monday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more