SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ---A wildfire outbreak is likely across portions of southeastern New Mexico into northwest Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and western Oklahoma.--- ...Southern High Plains... The D2 Extremely Critical area was expanded into western Oklahoma with this outlook. Conditions look favorable across this region beneath the axis of the low-level thermal ridge, with sustained winds 25-30 mph (gusting 50-60 mph),relative humidity around 10-15 percent, and temperatures warming in to the upper 70s to 80s. In addition, concerns continue for ongoing fires and changes in fire behavior with the eastward shift of the dryline Tuesday afternoon and potential wind shift from southerly to westerly by the afternoon. The D2 Critical was expanded across central Oklahoma with this outlook to account for eastward mixing of the dryline Tuesday afternoon. While there is some uncertainty in duration of Critical winds and relative humidity, strong gusts along the boundary in addition to a shift in the winds from southerly to westerly through time will likely change fire behavior in ongoing fires and create concern for the afternoon. ...Southern Arizona and New Mexico... The Critical area was extended across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico with this outlook to account for recent trends. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more