No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 31 21:34:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z A strong upper-level trough will dig into the Great Basin/Four Corners this weekend and eject into the Plains by early next week. A moderately strong surface high will move into the Great Basin and Northwest in its wake. Another strong upper-level trough is then forecast to dig into the same region by the middle of next week with an additional surface high in its wake as well. Models do differ slightly on the evolution of this secondary trough by late next week. Fire weather concerns will primarily focus on southern California during the period. Dry and windy conditions are possible in some parts of the Plains with the two troughs, but preceding precipitation should greatly limit fire weather concerns. ...California... Downslope/offshore winds are possible Sunday into Tuesday from the Sacramento Valley into southern California. For northern California, the upper-level system will bring enough precipitation to largely mitigate any fire weather concerns. For southern California, minimal precipitation is expected. Even so, the offshore winds will be occurring over generally unreceptive fuels. For next Wednesday into Thursday, another offshore wind event appears possible with a another strong upper trough moving into the Great Basin and Southwest. Current forecast guidance suggests the orientation of the trough will be favorable for some upper-level wind support as well. The primary question will be how fuels respond to the initial offshore winds. At this time, it is uncertain whether substantial fire weather risk will develop. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The Marginal risk across the Southeast was removed with this update. Storms have largely been sub-severe and disorganized, as low-level flow remains weak. In addition, thunder chances were removed from the Pacific Northwest. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE VICINITY SOUTH TO THE PERMIAN BASIN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms -- along with potential for locally strong/severe storms capable of producing hail and strong wind gusts -- are expected Saturday across portions of the central and southern Plains, focused on the southern High Plains area of western Texas. ...Synopsis... Continued amplification of the large-scale pattern aloft is expected Saturday, as the deepening trough progresses eastward across the West. At the surface, an attendant cold front will continue crossing the Intermountain region, emerging into the High Plains overnight. ...Southern High Plains to western Kansas, central Oklahoma, and central Texas... Substantial low-level theta-e advection is forecast to continue across the central and southern Plains Saturday, as the upper trough advances and mid-level height falls ahead of the trough support a broad area of enhanced low-level southerlies. The southerlies through the lower troposphere, beneath increasing mid-level southwesterlies ahead of the upper system, will result in a broad region where deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized storms. In conjunction with daytime heating of the moistening airmass, destabilization across eastern New Mexico and Texas will occur, with 500 to locally 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Though low-level foci for ascent will be subtle, ongoing/locally robust convection early in the period should persist -- and perhaps expand in coverage through the day, and then continue through the evening and into the overnight hours. Primary risks with the stronger storms will be hail and locally damaging wind gusts. While the overall area where the background environment will be sufficient to support some severe risk will be rather broad, at this time is appears that the greatest CAPE/shear combination will reside over western portions of Texas, from the Panhandle south to the Permian Basin. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... Model trends continue to suggest only a very brief period of near 15 mph winds in parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Though fuels are dry enough that impacts may be minimal, some light, spotty showers are possible with the frontal passage as well. The overall scenario continues to suggest locally elevated conditions tomorrow afternoon. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2178 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR EASTERN MINNESOTA INTO FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2178 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1049 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Areas affected...eastern Minnesota into far northwest Wisconsin Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 311549Z - 311845Z SUMMARY...Heavy, wet snow may lead to continued snow accumulation through early afternoon. DISCUSSION...An area of moderate to heavy snow has developed within a deformation band across south-central and eastern Minnesota this morning. Temperatures are marginal with observed temperatures around 32F to 34F within the snow band and ground temperatures well above freezing. However, webcams across south-central Minnesota show that snowfall rates are heavy enough for accumulation. Continued accumulation is expected where snowfall rates are the heaviest through early afternoon. Precipitation rates will start to lessen by mid-afternoon as the surface low starts to occlude. Thereafter, while snow may continue to fall, more significant accumulation is less likely due to the slower rates over warm ground temperatures. ..Bentley.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX... LAT...LON 44549392 44839466 45299465 46529313 46889217 46809167 46589152 46019168 45429270 44879342 44549392 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms, a few which may become capable of marginal hail/wind, will likely evolve across parts of the southern High Plains Friday evening into the overnight. ...Synopsis... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the western half of the country Friday, amplifying with time as short-wave energy initially off the West Coast digs south-southeastward toward northern California through the period. At the surface, a cold front will shift across the Northwest and into the Great Basin and California, in tandem with the digging upper feature. Meanwhile, a remnant/west-to-east baroclinic zone will persist from the southeastern U.S. westward into the southern Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Ahead of the amplifying western U.S. upper trough, weak mid-level height falls will support a zone of low-level warm advection across the southern High Plains vicinity. Afternoon heating of a gradually moistening low-level airmass will result in modest destabilization, with 500 to 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE expected. Little nocturnal decrease in instability is expected, as low-level theta-e advection supported by persistent surface southeasterlies should offset any diurnal cooling effects. Given the modest but sufficient CAPE expected by afternoon, ascent should support gradual development of isolated to scattered storms -- initially in the vicinity of higher terrain. Aided by veering/moderately increasing flow with height, shear should support multicell organization and potentially some mid-level rotation. As such, risk for hail and/or wind reaching severe criteria exists locally, with a couple of the strongest storms. This potential should continue overnight, with a northward/northwestward expansion of convection as the low-level theta-e advection increases in tandem with a strengthening south-southeasterly low-level jet. ..Goss.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311630Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of producing occasional wind gusts remain possible today from parts of east Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South. ...ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South... A small area of low wind probabilities has been maintained with this update from northeast TX to western TN. An ongoing, loosely organized squall line will continue to move east-southeastward this afternoon across parts of the ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. Widespread cloud cover is hindering daytime heating to some extent, and poor mid-level lapse rates should also limit the degree of MLCAPE available for convection. The stronger low/mid-level flow associated with an ejecting cyclone over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes is expected to remain displaced well to the north of the ongoing convection through this afternoon. While modest deep-layer shear will exist across the lower MS Valley vicinity, the overall severe wind threat will likely remain muted by weak instability. Further reduction and/or removal of the Marginal Risk will be considered with the next scheduled update (20Z). ...Ohio Valley/Great Lakes... Destabilization ahead of an eastward-moving cold front is forecast to remain rather limited this afternoon. While stronger low/mid-level flow will be present over the OH Valley and Great Lakes in association with an ejecting upper trough, potential for gusty winds with thunderstorms should remain low. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/31/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the CONUS are low. In the wake of the strong cold front moving through the central US, a much cooler air mass is expected over the West and the Plains. High pressure will develop behind the front keeping winds relatively light. Some strong flow aloft will remain over parts of the Southwest and southern Great Basin within zonal flow. However, the cooler temperatures will favor only marginally low RH around 20-25%. Additionally, recent precipitation has depleted fuels over much of the area. Thus, locally dry and breezy conditions are possible, but widespread elevated or critical fire-weather conditions are not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311300Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to locally severe storms capable of wind gusts are possible today from parts of the Ohio Valley southwestward into east/northeast Texas. ...Lower Ohio Valley/Mid-South and ArkLaTex/East Texas... An extensive northeast/southwest-oriented squall line (650 miles long), with considerable trailing stratiform precipitation, extends from the Wabash River/Lower Ohio River southwestward into the middle of Arkansas toward the ArkLaTex and broader parts of northeast Texas at daybreak. This activity squall has been sub-severe in the predawn hours, but some re-intensification is possible into the afternoon as the boundary layer warms ahead of the slow-east/southeastward-moving squall line and effective front. Regionally, stronger flow aloft/deep-layer shear will reside across the Mid-South/Tennessee Valley into the Ohio Valley where destabilization will be rather weak. Stronger instability will exist southwestward across east Texas/ArkLaTex into the Lower Mississippi Valley (as per 12Z Little Rock AR observed sounding). However, a mid-level subsidence inversion will also tend to exist (sampled by 12Z Shreveport LA observed sounding), with a weakening low-level wind field through the day. As such, only isolated marginally severe wind gusts are expected regionally. Any such severe risk should diminish by around sunset. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/31/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 and Monday/Day 5... An upper-level trough is forecast to move across the Desert Southwest on Sunday, as the exit region of a broad mid-level jet overspreads the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the system, a moist airmass will likely be in place. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this moist airmass Sunday afternoon as instability increases during the day. Surface dewpoints in the 60s F, low-end moderate instability and moderate to strong deep-layer shear should support severe thunderstorm development Sunday afternoon and evening. The greatest severe potential is expected from north Texas northward into south-central Nebraska, where large hail, severe wind gusts and an isolated tornado threat will be possible. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move into the southern High Plains, as a 80 to 90 knot mid-level jet translates through the eastern part of the system. Ahead of the trough, pockets of moderate instability are forecast to develop across a moist airmass during the day. Thunderstorms that form in the afternoon across the western part of the moist sector are expected to have potential for large hail and wind damage. ...Tuesday/Day 6 to Thursday/Day 8... From Tuesday to Thursday, an upper-level trough is forecast to move quickly eastward across the northern U.S., as a cold front advances southeastward across the eastern third of the U.S. Warming surface temperatures ahead of the front should result in scattered thunderstorm development each afternoon and evening. The greatest severe threat could be on Tuesday in the lower to mid Mississippi Valley near the entrance region of the mid-level jet. The severe threat could re-develop ahead of the front on Wednesday and Thursday. However, instability is forecast to be weak suggesting that any severe threat should be marginal. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and wind damage, are expected to develop across parts of the southern High Plains on Saturday. A marginal severe threat will also be possible outside of the Slight Risk area in parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the western U.S. on Saturday, as southwest mid-level flow remains from the Intermountain West eastward into the Great Plains. A moist airmass will be in place across the southern and central Plains, where scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the day. The strongest instability is forecast across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas by mid to late afternoon. Thunderstorms that develop in this area during the late afternoon and evening could be associated with a severe threat. NAM forecast soundings across west Texas by 00Z/Sunday suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 40 to 50 knot range as a mid-level jet of around 50 knots moves into the southern High Plains. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates in West Texas are forecast to be from 7 to 7.5 C/km by early Saturday evening. This should be favorable for supercells associated with large hail and severe wind gusts. The models currently suggest that a severe threat could be of rather long duration, with one round of storms developing across west Texas early in the day, and a second round of storms developing in the evening or overnight period. As these clusters move eastward into the Low Rolling Plains of west-central Texas and into western and central Oklahoma, the threat should become more isolated. Further north, from the Oklahoma Panhandle northward into western Kansas, moisture and instability are gradually forecast to increase Saturday night. Weak instability and moderate deep-layer shear, evident on forecast soundings, could support a marginal threat for hail and severe wind gusts with the greatest threat toward the end of the period. ..Broyles.. 10/31/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Quasi-zonal mid-level flow will persist over the US Friday as an upper trough moves offshore. A cold front will follow, with high pressure building over the central US. Behind the front, dry offshore flow is likely over parts of the Northeast and Mid Atlantic Coast. Downslope winds are also possible over parts of the central Rockies and High Plains. While localized gusty winds are possible, the lack of stronger synoptic winds suggests fire-weather concerns are low. ...Northeast... In the wake of the aforementioned cold front, a couple hours of dry and breezy conditions are possible across the Mid Atlantic Coast. Breezy 10-15 mph winds are possible through midday with adiabatic drying supporting somewhat lower RH within very dry fuels. However, offshore pressure gradients should gradually weaken through the afternoon, with the strongest winds quickly abating. While fuels are very dry, the overlap with gusty winds and low humidity will be brief and localized. ..Lyons.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather concerns over the CONUS are low. In the wake of the strong cold front moving through the central US, a much cooler air mass is expected over the West and the Plains. High pressure will develop behind the front keeping winds relatively light. Some strong flow aloft will remain over parts of the Southwest and southern Great Basin within zonal flow. However, the cooler temperatures will favor only marginally low RH around 20-25%. Additionally, recent precipitation has depleted fuels over much of the area. Thus, locally dry and breezy conditions are possible, but widespread elevated or critical fire-weather conditions are not expected. ..Lyons.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2177 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 697... FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2177 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Areas affected...portions of central and southern MO Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697... Valid 310605Z - 310730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 continues. SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will decrease over the next 1-2 hours across central/southern Missouri. New watch issuance downstream from Severe Thunderstorm Watch 697 is not expected. DISCUSSION...A line of storms extending from central into southern MO will continue to shift east overnight. Convection has largely weakened over the past hour or so as axis of elevated instability becomes increasing pinched off with northward extent and boundary layer inhibition has increased with loss of heating. Strong deep-layer flow remain over the region, and a locally strong gust around 45-60 mph may be possible for another hour or two. Downstream watch issuance is not anticipated. ..Leitman.. 10/31/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 39249133 38239136 36579208 36529359 36609415 37549335 38979218 39299176 39249133 Read more