MD 0252 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR SOUTHEASTERN INDIANA...SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...AND A SMALL PORTION OF NORTHERN KENTUCKY
Mesoscale Discussion 0252 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...southeastern Indiana...southwestern Ohio...and a small portion of northern Kentucky Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 200304Z - 200430Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues to gradually diminish across the WW area. DISCUSSION...Radar data continues to show a gradual decrease in convective intensity with storms moving across Indiana/WW 69 over the past couple of hours. This coincides with an associated, gradual decrease in buoyancy, with RAP-based objective analysis now showing mixed-layer CAPE below 500 J/kg across the WW area, and even less with eastward extent toward central Ohio. Expectations continue to be that storms will continue to gradually weaken, and thus risk for severe-caliber gusts waning. While local WW extension in area may be considered for a couple of counties in western Ohio, overall risk should remain minimal for the remainder of the evening. ..Goss.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...LMK... LAT...LON 38448486 38808507 40208407 40658308 40228286 38528398 38448486 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 200100Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM INDIANA INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND FAR WESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening mainly over Indiana, parts of Kentucky and into Tennessee. ...IN into western KY... A primary line of storms stretches from central IN into western KY and TN as of 01Z, with secondary line of storms along the IL/IN border in association with the cold front. Given the loss of heating and relatively narrow zone of instability, the primary risk of damaging gusts, hail, and perhaps a brief tornado should be greatest over the next 1-2 hours, and will then wane within the 03-06Z time frame. Even so, isolated strong storms cannot be ruled out as far east as central OH and south into parts of MS and AL as the front pushes through tonight. For more in-depth information, see mesoscale discussions 249, 250, and 251. ..Jewell.. 03/20/2025 Read more

MD 0249 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR WESTERN AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0249 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0634 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Western and middle Tennessee into northern Mississippi and northwest Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 192334Z - 200130Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected between 7-9 PM CDT across western Tennessee and northern to central Mississippi with a downstream risk for severe hail and damaging winds. The risk is expected to remain sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery shows gradually deepening cumulus along and just ahead of a diffuse dryline/Pacific front from western TN southward into MS. This trend is expected to continue as mid-level temperatures continue to cool with the eastward progression of the primary trough axis, resulting in improving 700-500 mb lapse rates that will be more favorable for sustained convection. This trend is already being observed further north across the lower OH River Valley, suggesting that thunderstorm development is becoming more likely for areas further south. Modest surface moisture (mid 50s dewpoints) will continue to limit overall buoyancy values (MLCAPE should be maximized around 500-750 J/kg), but wind fields over the region are supporting elongated hodographs that will promote organization of the more intense updrafts. Weak off-boundary storm motions/deep-layer shear vectors suggest that a combination of semi-discrete cells and clusters is likely later this evening as storms move into middle TN and northwest AL. Given the convective environment and trends in latest CAM guidance, a few of the more intense cells/clusters may pose a severe hail/wind threat through the late evening. ..Moore/Hart.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 32909031 35998919 36458887 36538846 36628750 36588700 36448652 36178623 35758610 35048619 34208674 33358759 32638848 32468899 32458937 32478982 32549002 32679022 32909031 Read more

MD 0250 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 59... FOR INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Indiana and southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59... Valid 200048Z - 200215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 59 continues. SUMMARY...Local risk for damaging wind gusts continues. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken -- and gradually weakening -- band of pre-frontal storms moving eastward across central and northern Indiana. While more vigorous cells within this band persist farther south -- into portions of Tornado Watch 58 where slightly greater surface dewpoints (low to mid 50s) exist, the prior, limited tornado risk over central and northern Indiana has further diminished. While a brief spin-up is still possible, the predominant severe risk will remain locally damaging wind gusts. In the wake of the initial band, a second band of frontal convection near the Illinois/Indiana border will reach western fringes of WW 59 over the next hour or so -- which may bring an additional chance for wind gusts in excess of severe levels locally. Overall though, a gradual/nocturnal decrease in storm intensity within both of the aforementioned bands will continue over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 03/20/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...GRR...IND... LAT...LON 38928648 40288613 41368612 42058597 42198519 41468479 40198458 39008489 38728518 38928648 Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE MKL TO 15 WSW OWB TO 25 NNE EVV TO 45 SSE MTO. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248 ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...PAH...LMK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 58 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC019-025-037-043-061-077-117-123-125-143-147-173-175-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD DUBOIS FLOYD HARRISON JEFFERSON ORANGE PERRY PIKE SCOTT SPENCER WARRICK WASHINGTON KYC003-009-027-029-031-047-059-061-085-091-093-099-103-107-111- 123-141-149-163-177-183-185-213-219-221-223-227-200140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN BARREN BRECKINRIDGE BULLITT BUTLER CHRISTIAN DAVIESS EDMONSON GRAYSON HANCOCK HARDIN HART HENRY HOPKINS JEFFERSON Read more

WW 58 TORNADO IL IN KY 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the watch area from late afternoon into this evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0059 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 59 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...ILN...GRR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 59 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC001-003-005-009-011-013-015-017-023-029-031-033-035-039-041- 047-049-053-057-059-063-065-067-069-071-075-079-081-085-087-091- 093-095-097-099-103-105-109-113-115-131-135-137-139-141-145-149- 151-155-159-161-169-177-179-181-183-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ALLEN BARTHOLOMEW BLACKFORD BOONE BROWN CARROLL CASS CLINTON DEARBORN DECATUR DE KALB DELAWARE ELKHART FAYETTE FRANKLIN FULTON GRANT HAMILTON HANCOCK HENDRICKS HENRY HOWARD HUNTINGTON JACKSON JAY JENNINGS JOHNSON KOSCIUSKO LAGRANGE LA PORTE LAWRENCE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MIAMI MONROE MORGAN NOBLE OHIO PULASKI RANDOLPH RIPLEY RUSH ST. JOSEPH SHELBY STARKE STEUBEN SWITZERLAND TIPTON UNION WABASH WAYNE WELLS Read more

WW 59 SEVERE TSTM IN KY MI OH LM 192255Z - 200500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 59 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Indiana North Central Kentucky Southern Lower Michigan Western Ohio Lake Michigan * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms over eastern Illinois will track rapidly northeastward through the evening. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of South Bend IN to 60 miles east southeast of Bloomington IN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57...WW 58... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW EVV TO 15 SW DNV TO 45 WNW VPZ. ..MOORE..03/20/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC023-033-045-075-101-183-200140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLARK CRAWFORD EDGAR IROQUOIS LAWRENCE VERMILION INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-200140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON CLAY DAVIESS FOUNTAIN GREENE KNOX MARTIN MONTGOMERY NEWTON OWEN PARKE PUTNAM SULLIVAN TIPPECANOE VERMILLION VIGO WARREN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

WW 57 TORNADO IA IL IN 191715Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Western Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast through the early evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 60 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Leitman Read more

MD 0246 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 57... FOR EASTERN ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...eastern Illinois into far western Indiana Concerning...Tornado Watch 57... Valid 192037Z - 192230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 57 continues. SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development is likely to continue to increase during the next few hours, including the potential for supercells with tornadoes across much of east central Illinois into the Indiana state border vicinity through 5-7 PM CDT. DISCUSSION...Aided by stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and cooling, within the exit region of the intense mid-level jet nosing through the middle Mississippi Valley, an intensifying and evolving broken line of thunderstorms appears likely to spread across and east of the Interstate 55 corridor of central Illinois through 21-22Z. This is where 20Z surface observations indicate that rapid (2-hourly in excess of 4 mb) surface pressure falls are maximized, and lower 50s surface dew points are being maintained with perhaps some further increase ongoing farther east, into the vicinity of the Indiana state border vicinity. More discrete thunderstorms are now initiating farther south, between Taylorville and Salem, which are likely to continue rapidly moving north-northeastward within 50-60 kt south-southwesterly deep-layer mean flow. Rapid Refresh forecast soundings continue to suggest that this will coincide with enlarging clockwise-curved low-level hodographs near/east of Kankakee, Champaign, Decatur vicinities, where south to southwesterly flow is forecast to intensify within the 850-700 mb layer through 22-00Z. And it still appears the low-level thermodynamic profiles may become conducive to supercell tornadoes, perhaps including a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 41618831 41418744 38798741 38288815 38388861 40008935 41618831 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Early in the extended period D3-5 (Friday-Sunday), breezy and dry conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. However, a much cooler air mass along with recent rain and snowfall across portions of the central Plains will help keep fire weather concerns low and mostly across the southern high Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern Plains. ...D3 - Friday through D4 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A surface low will develop across the central Plains on D3 - Friday, with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The main upper-level trough has continued to show a more progressive track, with much cooler air filtering in across portions of eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas behind the passing cold front. Some portion of this region has also seen recent rain and snowfall over the last 24-48 hours. This has led to removal of the 70 percent probabilities and shrinking of 40 percent probabilities. A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D4 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. 850 mb flow will strengthen with lee troughing, however, the main area of strongest flow aloft will stay north of the driest fuels. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0413 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 271200Z Early in the extended period D3-5 (Friday-Sunday), breezy and dry conditions will be possible across the central and southern Plains. However, a much cooler air mass along with recent rain and snowfall across portions of the central Plains will help keep fire weather concerns low and mostly across the southern high Plains. After this period, an upper level high is expected to build in across the central US, with lighter winds but continued dry conditions across the southern Plains. ...D3 - Friday through D4 - Saturday, Southern High Plains... A surface low will develop across the central Plains on D3 - Friday, with Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. The main upper-level trough has continued to show a more progressive track, with much cooler air filtering in across portions of eastern Colorado and southwestern Kansas behind the passing cold front. Some portion of this region has also seen recent rain and snowfall over the last 24-48 hours. This has led to removal of the 70 percent probabilities and shrinking of 40 percent probabilities. A secondary wave will move across the central Plains on D4 - Saturday with another surface low developing across eastern Colorado into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle. 850 mb flow will strengthen with lee troughing, however, the main area of strongest flow aloft will stay north of the driest fuels. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions will be possible across the Oklahoma Panhandle southward into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico. A 40 percent area was maintained with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0057 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W SPI TO 15 NNW PIA TO 35 SSW RFD AND 30 WNW PIA TO 30 WNW PIA. ..BUNTING..03/19/25 ATTN...WFO...DVN...LSX...ILX...LOT...IND... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 57 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-019-021-023-025-027-029-033-035-039-041-045-049-051-053- 063-075-079-091-093-099-101-105-107-113-115-121-123-125-129-135- 139-143-147-155-159-167-173-179-183-197-203-192140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CHAMPAIGN CHRISTIAN CLARK CLAY CLINTON COLES CRAWFORD CUMBERLAND DE WITT DOUGLAS EDGAR EFFINGHAM FAYETTE FORD GRUNDY IROQUOIS JASPER KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LAWRENCE LIVINGSTON LOGAN MCLEAN MACON MARION MARSHALL MASON MENARD MONTGOMERY MOULTRIE PEORIA PIATT PUTNAM RICHLAND SANGAMON SHELBY TAZEWELL VERMILION WILL WOODFORD INC007-021-027-045-055-083-101-107-111-119-121-133-153-157-165- 167-171-192140- Read more

WW 57 TORNADO IA IL IN 191715Z - 200200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 57 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1215 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Eastern Iowa Northern and Central Illinois Western Indiana * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1215 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes and a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop northeast through the early evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, damaging gusts, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Marseilles IL to 60 miles east of Salem IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Leitman Read more

WW 0058 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0058 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 58 TORNADO IL IN KY 192015Z - 200400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 58 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 315 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Illinois Southern Indiana Western and Central Kentucky * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 315 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A band of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the watch area from late afternoon into this evening. These storms may produce a few tornadoes, scattered wind damage, and hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles west southwest of Evansville IN to 20 miles south of Louisville KY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 57... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Leitman Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 192000Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was a southward extension of the Slight risk area to the TN/KY border. Current expectations are for a broken band of thunderstorms to track eastward into this area this afternoon into the evening. Here, filtered diurnal heating amid gradual boundary-layer moistening should yield enough low-level destabilization for a threat of scattered severe wind gusts and an embedded tornado risk -- given favorable low-level hodograph size and curvature. Elsewhere, severe probabilities were trimmed from the west behind the eastward-advancing dryline. For details on the near-term severe risk, reference Tornado Watch #57 and MCD #245. ..Weinman.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 PM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... A few updates were needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. The Critical area across western New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle was expanded eastward to include more of the Texas Panhandle and into portions of central New Mexico. This was in alignment with recent model guidance which brings stronger winds across these region than previously forecast. Minor adjustments were made to expand the Elevated further across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles south into southwestern Texas in line with these trends as well. A Critical area was added across the eastern Florida Peninsula with this outlook. Across this region, relative humidity reductions to 25-30 percent will overlap sustained westerly flow around 10-15 mph. A broad Elevated region was included from the central peninsula eastward to the coast. The best overlap of Critical conditions looks to be across the eastern peninsula from the Orlando Metro south to the Gold Coast and Miami Metro. ..Thornton.. 03/19/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more