SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds throughout the period. The most likely areas affected include parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large/full-latitude upper trough will progress slowly east across the Rockies today, with strengthening south/southwest winds aloft spreading east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley into Monday morning. Winds aloft and therefore deep-layer shear will generally increase throughout the period as an upper high remains over the Southeast. Various embedded waves associated with ongoing storms will likely exist from northern TX across OK and toward the mid MO Valley, while the primary speed max rounds the base of the trough late, moving across northern Mexico and into southwest TX. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a broad fetch of south to southeast winds across the Plains. This, along with 850 mb speeds of 40-50 kt, will maintain a moist air mass across the southern Plains, contributing to bouts of storms, some severe, primarily from northwest TX across OK. ...From northern TX into KS... Numerous storms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z this morning, from northern TX into eastern OK. Some of this activity could produce locally strong gusts, perhaps into western AR by midday. Behind this activity, an outflow boundary will likely be draped along the Red River vicinity, while a dryline forms over west-central TX. Southerly winds will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints into OK, as low-level lapse rates steepen west of the dryline. Increasing instability with little CIN will lead to renewed development along the dryline possibly by late morning, and, along/north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. A few supercells appear likely across this regime, primarily from northwest TX into central OK. The exact position of the outflow boundaries is uncertain, but a favorable corridor for a couple tornadoes may develop near northern portions of the dryline and near the retreating boundary during the afternoon. Effective SRH will be on the order of 200 to 300 m2/s2, with elongating hodographs as the upper trough continues east. Multiple bouts of thunderstorms and associated new/stabilizing outflows decrease predictability for a categorical upgrade at this time. Farther north into western KS, cool air aloft and dewpoints into the mid and upper 50s F may lead to isolated storms capable of hail, as instability becomes sufficient along with around 60 kt deep-layer shear. The cap is forecast to mix out west of the dryline and near the surface low during the late afternoon, and, a cold front will push south across NE and into western KS during the evening, further enhancing lift. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 AM CDT Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds throughout the period. The most likely areas affected include parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. A few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large/full-latitude upper trough will progress slowly east across the Rockies today, with strengthening south/southwest winds aloft spreading east across the Plains and toward the MS Valley into Monday morning. Winds aloft and therefore deep-layer shear will generally increase throughout the period as an upper high remains over the Southeast. Various embedded waves associated with ongoing storms will likely exist from northern TX across OK and toward the mid MO Valley, while the primary speed max rounds the base of the trough late, moving across northern Mexico and into southwest TX. At the surface, low pressure will deepen over the central High Plains, with a broad fetch of south to southeast winds across the Plains. This, along with 850 mb speeds of 40-50 kt, will maintain a moist air mass across the southern Plains, contributing to bouts of storms, some severe, primarily from northwest TX across OK. ...From northern TX into KS... Numerous storms are expected to be ongoing at 12Z this morning, from northern TX into eastern OK. Some of this activity could produce locally strong gusts, perhaps into western AR by midday. Behind this activity, an outflow boundary will likely be draped along the Red River vicinity, while a dryline forms over west-central TX. Southerly winds will bring mid to upper 60s F dewpoints into OK, as low-level lapse rates steepen west of the dryline. Increasing instability with little CIN will lead to renewed development along the dryline possibly by late morning, and, along/north of the aforementioned outflow boundary. A few supercells appear likely across this regime, primarily from northwest TX into central OK. The exact position of the outflow boundaries is uncertain, but a favorable corridor for a couple tornadoes may develop near northern portions of the dryline and near the retreating boundary during the afternoon. Effective SRH will be on the order of 200 to 300 m2/s2, with elongating hodographs as the upper trough continues east. Multiple bouts of thunderstorms and associated new/stabilizing outflows decrease predictability for a categorical upgrade at this time. Farther north into western KS, cool air aloft and dewpoints into the mid and upper 50s F may lead to isolated storms capable of hail, as instability becomes sufficient along with around 60 kt deep-layer shear. The cap is forecast to mix out west of the dryline and near the surface low during the late afternoon, and, a cold front will push south across NE and into western KS during the evening, further enhancing lift. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/03/2024 Read more

WW 0699 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0699 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 699 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 030450Z - 031000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 699 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern Oklahoma Western North Texas * Effective this Saturday night and Sunday morning from 1150 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity tonight as a strong upper trough approaches the region. A few strong to severe storms are expected, with locally damaging winds gusts and perhaps a tornado or two the main concerns. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles southwest of Altus OK to 60 miles north northeast of Durant OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 22030. ...Hart Read more

MD 2185 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...NORTHWEST TEXAS...AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2185 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0830 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the Texas South Plains...Northwest Texas...and southwest Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 030130Z - 030400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Portions of the Texas South Plains, northwest Texas, and southwest Oklahoma are being monitored for increasing severe thunderstorm potential during the next few hours. It is still unclear if a watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Along and north of an outflow boundary extending from north-central TX into the southern Permian Basin, reduced convective development on the backside of an earlier midlevel wave is leading to gradual air mass recovery. During the next few hours, the low-level jet will ramp up across the region in response to ascent in the left exit region of a subtropical jet overspreading the area. The associated deep-layer ascent and low-level warm advection atop the cold pool will support another uptick in convective development over the next few hours. Enlarging hodographs (40-50 kt of effective shear) with ample low-level clockwise curvature will conditionally support semi-discrete supercell structures initially. If these storms can root at the surface, all hazards (including brief tornadoes) will be possible. With time, the strengthening ascent amid deep moisture and minimal inhibition should promote numerous regenerative thunderstorms, leading to uncertainty in the overall severe risk (given a mixed mode). However, the aforementioned shear profiles will still conditionally support embedded supercell structures, and the low-level jet could allow for upscale growth/cold pool organization with time. It is still unclear if the overall severe risk will warrant a watch, though convective and environmental trends are being monitored. ..Weinman/Hart.. 11/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 33860165 34449985 34799906 34809850 34619794 34069783 33409811 32659979 32440060 32410138 32640176 33500197 33860165 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0741 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 030100Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible through tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Northwest TX into OK... Scattered clusters of rain and storms persist this evening from extreme southeast NM across the South Plains and into central OK. The large-scale instability gradient currently extends south of the aggregate outflow, roughly from Midland TX to Ardmore OK, with 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE to the south. Given the persistent southerly flow regime through tonight, a moist and unstable air mass will likely spread north, with elevated instability increasing over currently rain-cooled areas from northwest TX into OK. In the near term, the greatest supercell threat will remain over the Permian Basin, in closer proximity to the most unstable air, with hail or brief tornado risk. With time, storms may tend to consolidate just north of the instability gradient, with an increasing low-level jet supporting locally damaging gusts. Ambient SRH over 200 m2/s2 may also favor embedded circulations at times, especially if the activity can consolidate into a squall line as indicated by some models. ..Jewell.. 11/03/2024 Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNW MRF TO 50 S CVS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2184 ..WEINMAN..11/02/24 ATTN...WFO...MAF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 698 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC025-030040- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LEA TXC003-115-135-165-301-317-329-389-475-495-030040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS DAWSON ECTOR GAINES LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND REEVES WARD WINKLER THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2184 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 698... FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PERMIAN BASIN
Mesoscale Discussion 2184 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0633 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Areas affected...Southeast New Mexico into the southern Permian Basin Concerning...Tornado Watch 698... Valid 022333Z - 030030Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 698 continues. SUMMARY...The severe risk remains confined to a small area in the northern portion of Tornado Watch 698. DISCUSSION...The threat of a brief tornado, large hail, and locally severe gusts generally remains confined to Lea, Andrews, and Gaines Counties within Tornado Watch 698. Here, backed surface winds (along the composite outflow boundary) beneath veering/strengthening winds with height are contributing to ample clockwise hodograph curvature (per nearby VWP data and mesoanalysis). This enhanced helicity and focused mesoscale ascent is favoring the maintenance of a discrete surface-based supercell capable of producing additional brief tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging gusts. A couple semi-discrete cells to the north of the outflow boundary will also pose a localized severe risk, mainly in the form of marginally severe hail. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32530224 32320248 32270346 32630353 33130319 33110276 32860225 32530224 Read more

WW 698 TORNADO NM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening across the Permian Basin. A few supercells capable of large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are expected. As the low-level winds strengthen late this afternoon into the early evening, a risk for a couple of tornadoes may develop with the more intense supercells to the south of and immediately near an outflow boundary draped from west to east across the area. Storms will likely grow upscale into one or more small clusters later this evening with severe wind and hail becoming the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Carlsbad NM to 40 miles northeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z A mid-level trough is forecast to move from the Southwest into the Great Plains Day 3/Monday, before ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week. As this trough shifts east, another strong mid-level trough is forecast to amplify while gradually shifting southward across the western U.S. Day 3/Monday through at least Day 6/Thursday. As this occurs, high pressure is forecast to build and strengthen across the Interior West, which will promote fire weather concerns across portions of California. Day 3/Monday: Southern California Elevated to at least locally critical fire weather conditions are forecast to be ongoing Day 3/Monday morning across the wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California with poor overnight RH recoveries and strong/gusty north to northeast winds. Fire weather conditions are forecast to continue into the afternoon before the pressure gradient relaxes and wind speeds lower. Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday: Southern/Northern California: Potentially stronger, more widespread, and longer duration fire-weather conditions are possible by midweek across portions of California associated with the aforementioned secondary mid-level trough. On Day 5/Wednesday, dry and breezy conditions may occur across portions of northern California, though continued uncertainties regarding minimum RH reductions and fuel receptiveness after recent rainfall (exceeding 0.5" in some areas) precludes introducing Critical probabilities at this time. Confidence in Critical fire weather conditions is greater further south across portions of Southern California, where strong/gusty winds are expected atop fuels that remain receptive from little-to-no recent rainfall. For this outlook cycle, 40% probabilities for Critical fire weather conditions were maintained on Day 5/Wednesday and 40% probabilities for Critical were introduced Day 6/Thursday across the wind-prone mountains and valley areas of Southern California. Upgrades and refinements to the outlook area are probable over the next few days as guidance continues to come into better agreement. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Nov 2 20:00:16 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...20z Update... Only slight adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk across far eastern New Mexico to account for recent trends in radar. Trends continue to suggest that storms across western Texas into eastern New Mexico before growing upscale and moving into northwestern Texas and eventually Oklahoma. Some question remains how much air mass recovery can happen north of the Red River across southwest Oklahoma behind the current line of storms. Visible satellite shows a few breaks in the clouds across southwestern Oklahoma into northwestern Texas behind the ongoing complex/outflow. For now, confidence remains too low to make an adjustments to severe probabilities given the signal in CAM guidance for an eastward propagating MCS this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Smith.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the Midwest. ...Oklahoma/Texas... The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outcome. Very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a greater severe threat given the potential combination of destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations will also be possible in these areas. ...Ozarks... Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat. Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated. The greater threat for severe weather will come with the line of convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... The large upper trough in the Southwest will continue its eastward progression into the southern Plains. With time, the trough will lift northeast and lose amplitude. A strong mid-level jet will eject into the southern Plains and mid-Missouri Valley during the late morning and afternoon. A surface low initially in western Oklahoma will begin to accelerate northeastward, reaching the Upper Midwest by Tuesday Morning. The focus for severe storms will along the dryline in Oklahoma/Texas, which will eventually be overtaken by a cold front, and the cold front extending from Kansas into the Midwest. ...Oklahoma/Texas... The current expectation is for strongly forced line of convection to be ongoing in western Oklahoma into western North Texas. Additional convection is also possible farther east into parts of the Ozarks within a broad area of warm advection. How the western convection evolves with time will be modulated by the eastern precipitation and eventual degree of surface-based destabilization. Surface heating will be key as mid-level lapse rates are relatively poor. Even without significant surface heating, a very moist airmass should support the continuation of the convective line into central/eastern Oklahoma. Guidance is consistent in showing a linear mode and shear vectors largely parallel to the boundary support this outcome. Very strong low-level and deep-layer shear will promote a risk for severe winds and QLCS tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, portions of eastern Oklahoma appear to be favorably positioned for a greater severe threat given the potential combination of destabilization and large-scale ascent. Portions of East Texas should observe greater surface heating. Deep-layer shear will be weaker, however. Severe wind gusts and line-embedded circulations will also be possible in these areas. ...Ozarks... Initial morning convection could pose a marginal severe threat. Weaker forcing and limited buoyancy should keep any threat isolated. The greater threat for severe weather will come with the line of convection along the cold front moving in from the west during the evening into parts of the overnight. Buoyancy will still be limited and decrease with eastward extent, but strong low-level and deep-layer wind fields will continue to support some risk for damaging winds and perhaps QLCS tornadoes. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

WW 0698 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0698 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 698 TORNADO NM TX 021930Z - 030200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 698 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 230 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 230 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening across the Permian Basin. A few supercells capable of large to very large hail (1 to 2.5 inches in diameter) and severe gusts (60-70 mph) are expected. As the low-level winds strengthen late this afternoon into the early evening, a risk for a couple of tornadoes may develop with the more intense supercells to the south of and immediately near an outflow boundary draped from west to east across the area. Storms will likely grow upscale into one or more small clusters later this evening with severe wind and hail becoming the primary hazards. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles southwest of Carlsbad NM to 40 miles northeast of Midland TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Smith Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z A Santa Ana wind event, with strong sustained north to northeasterly surface winds of 15 to 30 mph (with stronger gusts) is forecast to develop Sunday evening into the overnight across portions of Southern California, with strong deep-layer flow overhead and a strengthening surface pressure gradient. While RH values may initially only be marginally reduced Sunday afternoon, continued low-level drying and poor overnight RH recoveries will allow RH values to fall to between 15 and 25% Sunday night into Monday morning. Additionally, little-to-no precipitation is expected across this area today, which will keep fuels receptive. Thus, elevated to locally critically fire weather conditions are expected to develop late tomorrow and continue into Monday, with an Elevated fire weather area introduced across wind-prone mountain and valley areas of Southern California. Locally elevated fire weather conditions are also possible Sunday afternoon across portions of southern Santa Barbara County and neighboring areas. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on tomorrow's fire weather threat. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA INTO NORTH TEXAS AND THE ROLLING PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level trough will continue to push east and a surface cyclone will deepen in the central High Plains. Continued moisture advection northward will support the potential for severe storms, primarily within Oklahoma and Texas. ...Oklahoma into North Texas... Models continue to be consistent in an ongoing line of convection occurring early Sunday morning from eastern Oklahoma into North Texas. This activity complicates the forecast for the afternoon/evening. However, a similarly consistent signal for additional convection to move into these areas during the afternoon from the Texas Rolling Plains. This scenario is plausible given the persistence of low-level southerly flow as the upper-level trough continues to move eastward and a surface low deepens in the central High Plains. Buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and low-level/deep-layer shear will favor organized storms capable of all severe hazards. Guidance exhibits a strong signal for a linear convective mode where severe winds and embedded QLCS circulations would be the expected primary threats. Hail would be a greater concern for any more discrete storms. The degree of tornado threat is at least conditionally higher in south-central/southeast Oklahoma where low-level hodographs will be larger, particularly late afternoon into the evening. The overall uncertain character/location of the effective boundary from earlier convection as well as whether discrete storms can form along it keep confidence in a greater threat low. ...Texas Rolling Plains/Permian Basin... Low-level southeasterly winds will continue to advect moisture into the surface trough/dryline. Forcing from the upper-level trough will overspread this region by mid/late morning. Guidance suggests a quick transition to a linear mode, but effective shear of 40-50 kts across the boundary and long straight hodographs will favor some threat for large hail with initial supercells. Severe winds will likely be the primary threat as convection moves northeast. Some QLCS tornado threat is possible as low-level shear increases to the east. ...Kansas/Nebraska... Within the surface low/dryline, isolated discrete storm development appears possible in western Kansas. Uncertainty remains high given potential influence from convection to the south. Further, stronger forcing does not arrive until the evening. Should storms develop, strong effective shear (50-55 kts) and steep mid-level lapse rates will favor supercells capable of severe winds and large hail. At least a narrow window for a tornado risk will be present during late evening. ...East Texas into far western Louisiana... Within a warm advection regime, a few storms may develop in East Texas and adjacent Louisiana. Buoyancy will be maximized in East Texas and diminish with eastward extent. Deep-layer southwesterly flow will be sufficient for marginal supercell structures. Damaging winds and isolated large hail would be possible. Given the presence of an effective warm front/moisture boundary, low-level shear will also be adequate for the stronger storms to potentially produce a brief tornado. ..Wendt.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more