SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Risk for severe weather appears low at this time across the U.S. for Tuesday. ...Discussion... A western ridge/eastern trough pattern will generally prevail into/through the Day 3 period (Tuesday). Late in the period, height falls associated with an approaching eastern Pacific trough will begin affecting the Pacific Northwest region. Isolated thunderstorm development is conditionally possible during late afternoon over parts of North Texas near the remnant surface front, where a deeply mixed boundary layer topped by weak CAPE will exist. Gusty winds would be possible in this scenario. Greater storm development may occur farther west -- into the Texas Panhandle vicinity near/north of the front overnight, as the boundary layer cools and a low-level jet develops. While small hail would be possible as storms spread east-southeastward through the end of the period, CAPE should remain marginal enough to largely preclude risk for severe-caliber hail. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Mid-level flow will become increasingly amplified Monday as ridging builds over the West and a broad trough deepens over the eastern CONUS. Strong northwesterly flow behind the trough will aid in gusty surface winds behind a cold front moving through the Appalachians. Some localized dry and breezy conditions are possible over parts of the southern Plains and lee of the Appalachians, but widespread fire concerns are not expected. ...OK and KS... Behind the cold front, low-level flow will gradually turn more southwesterly through the morning as a second weak surface low passes from the eastern Plains into the Midwest. While surface winds are not exacted to be overly strong (generally 10-15 mph), they will briefly overlap with areas of quite low dewpoints in the teens to low 20s F. With diurnal RH minimums below 20%, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions appear possible within dry fuels. An elevated area may be considered should winds trend stronger within the dry return flow regime. ...Appalachians... A cold front will move eastward over the Appalachians with isolated showers and some thunderstorms early Monday. Downslope winds will increases behind the front as it moves eastward over parts of VA, eastern TN and the western Carolinas. Westerly gusts may reach 10-20 mph and briefly overlap with RH below 30%. Given recent fire activity and exceptionally dry area fuels, this may support brief elevated fire-weather conditions. However, uncertainties on wetting rainfall within fuels and the overlap of potential dry and windy conditions will preclude an Elevated area for now. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will intensify over the western US today and tonight forcing strong northwesterly flow over much of the Plains States. A shortwave trough and strong jet will aid in strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move over the Rockies and into the Plains. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern and central Plains. ...Central and Southern Plains... As the surface low and cold front move south over the Plains early this morning, strong winds will develop along and behind it. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Several days of dry and warm conditions preceding the front should keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures. This drying has also enhanced area fuels with widespread ERC's above the 90th percentile across much of the southern and central Plains. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, where gusts may reach 20-25 mph. However, this is not expected to be long duration or persist over a wide area. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ..Lyons.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday morning and afternoon, from southern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough is forecast to advance slowly eastward across the eastern half of the U.S. on Monday, while ridging expands over the West. At the surface, a weakening occluded low will move from the Upper Great Lakes eastward to southern Quebec through the period. A trailing cold front will initially stretch from the Lower Great Lakes to the southern Appalachians, and then westward across the Gulf Coast States to Texas. The front will move offshore into the western Atlantic through the day, while sagging southward toward the Gulf Coast -- where it should then linger through the end of the period. ...Southern Louisiana to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle... Showers and a few thunderstorms will likely be ongoing near and south of the advancing cold front. Some severe risk (mainly hail/wind) may accompany a couple of the stronger storms during the morning, near the Gulf Coast region. Depending upon convective coverage/evolution through late morning, any pre-frontal heating/destabilization could support redevelopment/reintensification of frontal convection, with a secondary peak in severe potential possible in this scenario. Still, overall risk does not appear to warrant SLGT risk upgrade at this time. Storms should weaken into the evening, while also shifting gradually southward/offshore. ..Goss.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 23 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt and deepen as it moves from the northern Plains toward the upper Great Lakes, with increasing mid and high level winds into the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from WI into Lower MI with a cold front extending south across the mid MS and toward the ArkLaTex by afternoon. Heating and destabilization will be most prominent roughly from Memphis TN southwestward into TX with dewpoints into the mid 60s F, with moderate deep-layer shear across the entire frontal zone. ...Lower OH Valley southwestward into eastern TX... Early day rain and storms will likely be ongoing over MO, with activity spreading east across KY. Weak elevated instability will fuel this activity, supported by a 50+ kt low-level jet. Isolated strong gusts may occur. In the wake of the early activity, destabilization will occur ahead of the front, with 1000 J/kg MLCAPE as far north as the MO Bootheel. Stronger instability will develop across AR, western MS and into TX with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE possible. Given peak heating and deepening moist boundary layer, scattered storms are likely along the length of the front. Initial vigorous activity is likely to produce large hail perhaps over 1.75". Low-level SRH may favor a few supercells over parts of AR/LA/MS, and a brief tornado may occur. The line of storms is likely to persist for much of the evening as it shifts into northern AL and central MS. ..Jewell/Lyons.. 03/23/2025 Read more

MD 0253 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR OZARK PLATEAU REGION
Mesoscale Discussion 0253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1027 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Areas affected...Ozark Plateau Region Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 230327Z - 230530Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated hail may accompany storms across the Ozark Plateau the next several hours. DISCUSSION...Weak, low-amplitude short-wave trough is approaching southeast KS late this evening. Partly in response to this feature, LLJ is strengthening across central OK into southwest MO. VAD profile from INX/SGF both exhibit intense 0-3 SRH and low-level warm advection will focus ascent across the Ozark Plateau over the next several hours. While moisture is advancing northeast in conjunction with this LLJ, 00z sounding from OUN depicted only 0.82 PW; however, 0-6km lapse rates are very steep and this will aid buoyancy as moisture surges into southern MO. Over the last hour or so, convection has begun to deepen along the nose of the LLJ, and this should continue over the next few hours. Wind profiles favor organized rotating updrafts, and a few supercells may emerge. Forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted near 850mb will yield the most MUCAPE, hence hail will be the primary risk with the most robust updrafts. If more organized convection develops, a severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted. ..Darrow/Gleason.. 03/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 37059501 37479415 37229268 36589248 36439336 36609474 37059501 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0751 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST MISSOURI INTO FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts remain possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...Northeast OK into central MO...southeast KS...far northwest AR.. The 00Z OUN sounding depicts steep lapse rates and a strong wind profile well ahead of the upper wave which will move into the central Plains tonight. Total instability is not particularly strong as of 01Z, but continued moisture advection in the low-levels with an increasing low-level jet will eventually result in destabilization and storm development later this evening. A few cells may develop over far northeast OK after 2 or 3Z, expanding into MO overnight. Favorable deep layer shear and lapse rates will favor hail. Other storms are likely over eastern KS after 06Z along the cold front as it encounters the moist plume, and locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out along with hail. ..Jewell.. 03/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Mar 22 22:25:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0324 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Medium-range guidance shows reasonable agreement on the upper-level pattern through most of the upcoming week. Upper-level ridging is expected to amplify over the West Coast and shift eastward. By late next week, models begin to differ on the details of the upper-level pattern evolution. The general signal is for a weak, low-latitude trough to move eastward while another shortwave trough will eject into the Plains by the weekend. The location and strength of this trough vary fairly substantially between the ECMWF and GFS. The overall pattern will support some amount of drying across the Southwest and portions of the central/southern Plains. Precipitation chances will be higher elsewhere. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears low at this time. However, the limited precipitation expected across parts of the Plains/High Plains regions will allow for elevated fire weather where dry/windy conditions develop. Highlighting any specific area is difficult given the more diffuse surface pattern. A stronger surface cyclone is possible in the Plains as the trough emerges late in the week, but predictability of this feature remains low. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER A SMALL PART OF SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms capable of producing isolated large hail and strong wind gusts are possible this evening and overnight from northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas into southeast Kansas and parts of southern/central Missouri. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and very minimal changes were made with this update. There was some consideration of adding 15-percent wind probabilities in the current Slight risk area, given ongoing diurnal heating/steepening low-level lapse rates amid a dry boundary layer, though the potential for a higher concentration of severe wind gusts appears too conditional at this time. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...MO/OK/KS/AR... Morning water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across CO. This feature will move into the central Plains today, and the mid MS Valley overnight. Ahead of the trough, mostly clear skies will lead to steep low-level lapse rates across much of KS/MO/OK/AR, with strengthening southerly winds aiding in gradually increasing moisture. By early evening, models suggest a developing low-level jet will focus warm advection and lift across northeast OK/northwest AR, leading to scattered thunderstorm development in the 00-03z time period. Morning CAM solutions are surprisingly consistent in the timing and location of this activity, with storms lifting northeastward into southern MO through the evening. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates and sufficient elevated CAPE support a risk of hail in the strongest cells for a few hours this evening. Given model consistency, have introduced a small SLGT risk area. ...North-Central High Plains... Scattered high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon and early evening over the High Plains of southeast MT and eastern WY. Steep lapse rates through a deep layer and favorable diurnal heating/mixing may yield a few stronger wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z Minor changes to the forecast based on the latest guidance trends. The forecast otherwise remains valid. Additional details available below. ..Wendt.. 03/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging over the West is forecast to continue intensifying as mid-level northwesterly flow remains in place over the central CONUS. A shortwave trough and strong jet will move over the Plains Sunday, strengthening a surface low and cold front as they move to the east. Dry and windy conditions are expected behind the front, supporting elevated fire-weather potential over parts of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... As the cold front and surface low move over the southern Plains strong northerly winds are likely behind it across parts of KS, TX and OK. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph with higher gusts are likely through much of the day. Dry conditions overnight will keep minimum RH values low (generally around 30-35%) despite cooling surface temperatures behind the front through the day. In combination with the strong winds and several days of recent drying, area fuels will be receptive. Several hours of elevated fire-weather conditions appear likely. Localized critical conditions are also possible, but the strongest winds are expected over areas of western and central KS where recent rainfall has tempered fuels. This should limit more widespread critical concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0213 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/possibly severe thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon, from southeastern Louisiana eastward to southern Georgia and the Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast LA to southwest GA and the FL Panhandle... Isolated showers and thunderstorms may be going near a surface cold front across portions of the central Gulf Coast region Monday morning as remnants of overnight convection across the Lower MS and TN Valleys. As an upper trough continues to slowly shift east across the eastern U.S., deep layer southwesterly flow will gradually weaken from west to east through the day. Ample boundary layer moisture will be in place ahead of the southeastward progressing cold front. However, lapse rates are expected to remain modest through at least 700 mb, limiting stronger instability. Nevertheless, sufficient MLCAPE and shear will exist to support isolated strong storms capable of gusty winds and hail. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Sat Mar 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon and evening from East Texas into the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys. Large hail and damaging gusts will be the main severe hazard, though a couple of tornadoes also are possible. ...East TX into KY/TN/AL... An upper trough over the Plains Sunday morning will shift east, extending from the upper Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast by Monday morning. A belt of moderate mid/upper westerlies will extend from the Ohio Valley south to the Mid-South/Deep South vicinity. A southwesterly low-level jet greater than 40 kt will overspread the region during the afternoon, with some intensification of the LLJ possible across the Deep South overnight as the upper trough deepens. Favorable shear profiles will support organized convection during the afternoon and into the overnight period. At the surface, a low centered over the Upper Midwest during the morning will shift east across the Upper Great Lakes. A trailing cold front is forecast to sweep across the outlook area from mid-afternoon into the night time hours. South/southwesterly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward ahead of the front, with 60s F dewpoints possible as far north as western TN. A narrow corridor of mid-60s F dewpoints is possible across the MS Delta vicinity into coastal LA/TX. Cold temperatures aloft (generally from -20 to -16 C) will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, and weak to moderate destabilization. Weaker destabilization (generally less than 500 J/kg) is expected over northern portions of the outlook area where boundary layer moisture will be more modest and daytime heating not as strong as further south. Nevertheless, stronger large-scale ascent and frontal forcing coincident with strong deep-layer flow will support at least an isolated risk for damaging gusts/hail. Stronger destabilization (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) is expected with south/southwest extent. Large-scale ascent will be weaker, but frontal forcing should be sufficient for isolated to scattered storm development across LA/MS, with a more conditional risk with southwest extent into TX. Forecast soundings will support supercells or small line segments. Damaging gusts and large hail will be the main concern from late afternoon into the nighttime hours. However, a narrow corridor of greater tornado potential appears evident from northeast LA into central MS and a couple or tornadoes will be possible. The severe risk should gradually wane with southeast extent during the overnight hours. ..Leitman.. 03/22/2025 Read more