SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the Southeast this evening, northward into the southern Appalachians. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...Southeast/Southern Appalachians... The latest water vapor imagery shows a cyclonic flow pattern over the eastern U.S., with multiple embedded shortwave troughs. One of these features appears to be in the mid Mississippi Valley, with a second located in the southern Appalachians. At the surface, surface dewpoints are mostly in the 40s F from northern sections of the Southeast northward into the southern Appalachians. A low is analyzed in northeast Alabama, where surface dewpoints are locally maximized with dewpoints in the lower 50s F. An outflow boundary extends from west to east from northern Mississippi to northern Georgia. To the south of this boundary, surface temperatures near 70 F are contributing to RAP-analyzed MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. This instability will help maintain convective development through the evening. At mid-levels, a jet streak is currently moving through the central Plains and lower Mississippi Valley. The left exit region of the jet is located over northern sections of the Southeast. Strong deep-layer shear and lift associated with this feature will continue to support severe thunderstorm development this evening. Supercells and short bowing line segments will likely be capable of producing wind damage. The large-hail threat will be most likely with supercells. This evening, the severe threat is expected to shift southward with time into parts of east-central Mississippi, central Alabama and west-central Georgia. By late evening, the severe threat should become isolated and marginal as instability decreases across the Southeast ..Broyles.. 04/11/2025 Read more

MD 0444 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 137... FOR NORTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0444 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...Northern Georgia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137... Valid 102352Z - 110145Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 137 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually expanding in areal coverage this evening, likely in response to the left-exit region of an approaching mid-level speed max. West-southwesterly boundary-layer inflow is also contributing, as this trajectory is allowing higher instability air mass across northern AL to spread downstream into northern GA. Latest radar data suggests the most robust updrafts are generating hail, much of it approaching golf ball size. Additionally, damaging winds are likely noted as the steepest lapse rate plume does extend into this portion of GA. This expanding convective corridor will gradually sag southeast as the evening progresses. ..Darrow.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...BMX... LAT...LON 34238291 33248323 33678573 34758531 34238291 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 20 SSE BNA TO 30 NE BNA TO 10 NW BWG. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-053-057-061-085-087-099-169-171-207-227-110040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HART METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL WARREN TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-071-087-099-109-111-117- 133-137-141-149-159-165-169-175-177-185-189-110040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS GILES GRUNDY HARDIN JACKSON LAWRENCE MCNAIRY MACON MARSHALL OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MSL TO 45 SSW BNA TO 20 SSE BNA TO 30 NE BNA TO 10 NW BWG. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-053-057-061-085-087-099-169-171-207-227-110040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HART METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL WARREN TNC003-015-027-031-035-041-049-055-061-071-087-099-109-111-117- 133-137-141-149-159-165-169-175-177-185-189-110040- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEDFORD CANNON CLAY COFFEE CUMBERLAND DE KALB FENTRESS GILES GRUNDY HARDIN JACKSON LAWRENCE MCNAIRY MACON MARSHALL OVERTON PICKETT PUTNAM RUTHERFORD SMITH SUMNER Read more

WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 136 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-033-037-043-049-055-057-059- 063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-105-107-111-115- 117-119-121-123-125-127-133-110040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC107-110040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 136 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 136 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC007-009-015-017-019-021-027-029-033-037-043-049-055-057-059- 063-065-071-073-075-077-079-083-089-093-095-103-105-107-111-115- 117-119-121-123-125-127-133-110040- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BIBB BLOUNT CALHOUN CHAMBERS CHEROKEE CHILTON CLAY CLEBURNE COLBERT COOSA CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN GREENE HALE JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN PERRY PICKENS RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR SHELBY SUMTER TALLADEGA TALLAPOOSA TUSCALOOSA WALKER WINSTON ARC107-110040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-011-013-015-035-045-047-055-057-059-063-067-077-083-085- 089-097-105-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-129-133-135-137-139-143- 147-149-151-157-159-169-171-187-195-199-207-211-213-217-219-221- 223-227-231-233-237-241-247-255-257-281-285-291-295-297-311-313- 110040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BARTOW BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GORDON GREENE GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HARALSON HART HEARD HENRY JACKSON JASPER JONES LAMAR LUMPKIN MADISON MERIWETHER MONROE MORGAN MURRAY NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PICKENS PIKE POLK Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 137 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MARSH..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 137 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC009-011-013-015-035-045-047-055-057-059-063-067-077-083-085- 089-097-105-111-113-115-117-119-121-123-129-133-135-137-139-143- 147-149-151-157-159-169-171-187-195-199-207-211-213-217-219-221- 223-227-231-233-237-241-247-255-257-281-285-291-295-297-311-313- 110040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN BANKS BARROW BARTOW BUTTS CARROLL CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE CLARKE CLAYTON COBB COWETA DADE DAWSON DEKALB DOUGLAS ELBERT FANNIN FAYETTE FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN FULTON GILMER GORDON GREENE GWINNETT HABERSHAM HALL HARALSON HART HEARD HENRY JACKSON JASPER JONES LAMAR LUMPKIN MADISON MERIWETHER MONROE MORGAN MURRAY NEWTON OCONEE OGLETHORPE PAULDING PICKENS PIKE POLK Read more

WW 136 SEVERE TSTM AL AR MS TN 102035Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Far Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Far Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and spread southeastward through the evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail generally ranging from 1-2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph, should also occur as clusters form later this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Greenwood MS to 25 miles northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 137 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN 102100Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Georgia Far Southwest North Carolina Extreme Western South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells should continue to pose some threat for severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that can form, before convection eventually weakens with eastward extent. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135...WW 136... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z An upper-level trough traversing through the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains combined with a modest subtropical jet support, south of the trough should promote a broad area of stronger winds across the Desert Southwest portions of the Central and Southern High Plains over the weekend. Combined with a very dry, well mixed boundary layer, a Critical fire weather probability of 70 percent was introduced into portions New Mexico and into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles over the weekend (day 3/day 4). Lee cyclone development and eastward translation of the upper-level trough is expected to bring gusty winds behind a dry, post-frontal environment supporting a 40 percent probability of a Critical fire weather threat for portions of the Central Plains on day 5/Monday. ...Day 3/Saturday - Day 4/Sunday: Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains... Gusty west-southwest surface winds aided by an increase in a broad but modest subtropical jet aloft combined with a very dry boundary layer is expected to result in Critical fire weather conditions across northeastern New Mexico into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles on day 3/Saturday. A southward shift and acceleration in mid-level flow along with leeward cyclone development in the southern High Plains, should support a broad area of increased surface winds amid dry fuels and very low relative humidity on day 4/Sunday. This threat will be concentrated across southern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0441 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PRIMARILY FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0441 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...primarily from northern Mississippi into central and northern Alabama Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 101956Z - 102230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms are expected to develop later this afternoon and evening, with large hail and localized damaging gusts likely. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a boundary/wind shift moving south across AR and toward the MS River. Ahead of this boundary, west/southwest winds are helping to maintain a plume of mid 50s F dewpoints which now extend into AL. Meanwhile, strong heating continues. The southerly periphery of the midlevel cooling is evident on visible imagery, indicated by the CU fields from northeast AR into TN. As this cooling aloft rapidly pushes southeast, corridors of thunderstorm development are expected. The combination of strong cooling aloft overspreading the surface theta-e plume should result in corridors of severe storms. Long hodographs, cold temperatures aloft, and favorable time of day coincident with peak heating will favor both large hail and localized wind damage. Isolated significant hail cannot be ruled out with the strongest cells. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 33088987 33809069 34479082 34899082 35159058 35249007 35078922 34958795 34788597 34648553 34198505 33378491 32868515 32548548 32378640 32578804 33088987 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0442 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA...EXTREME WESTERN CAROLINAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0442 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Areas affected...eastern Tennessee...northern Georgia...extreme western Carolinas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 102045Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered storms, a few of which may be severe, are likely to affect parts of northern Georgia and eastern Tennessee, and possibly into the far western Carolinas by early evening. DISCUSSION...Storms continue to increase across TN, beneath the cooler midlevel temperatures. Meanwhile, a midlevel cloud band has moved out of the region, allowing heating behind. Given this expected destabilization via heating and advection out of the west, cells moving into the region are expected to remain strong or severe, producing hail and localized wind gusts. The greatest risk of damaging hail will be over southern areas, including northern GA, where temperatures have warmed substantially and lapse rates are quite steep. ..Jewell/Gleason.. 04/10/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX... LAT...LON 33858534 34798555 35278534 35838515 36238490 36508420 36538299 36438240 36048216 35258250 34328322 33618497 33858534 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0137 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0137 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 137 SEVERE TSTM GA NC SC TN 102100Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 137 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM EDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Georgia Far Southwest North Carolina Extreme Western South Carolina Eastern Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells should continue to pose some threat for severe hail up to 1-1.75 inches in diameter through the rest of the afternoon and into the evening. Damaging winds may also occur with any clusters that can form, before convection eventually weakens with eastward extent. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles north northwest of Knoxville TN to 30 miles south southeast of Atlanta GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135...WW 136... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0135 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 135 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GUYER..04/10/25 ATTN...WFO...MEG...PAH...LMK...OHX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 135 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-031-055-093-102140- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CRAIGHEAD GREENE MISSISSIPPI ILC003-059-069-087-127-151-153-165-181-199-102140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALEXANDER GALLATIN HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC POPE PULASKI SALINE UNION WILLIAMSON KYC001-003-007-009-031-033-035-039-047-053-055-057-059-061-075- 083-085-087-099-101-105-107-139-141-143-145-149-157-169-171-177- 183-207-213-219-221-225-227-233-102140- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 135 SEVERE TSTM AR IL KY MO TN 101920Z - 110200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 135 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Far Northeast Arkansas Far Southern Illinois Western and South-Central Kentucky Far Southeast Missouri Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should gradually evolve east-southeastward this afternoon and evening while posing a threat for mainly scattered damaging winds. Peak gusts could reach up to 60-70 mph. Occasional severe hail generally ranging from 1-1.75 inches in diameter may also occur with any sustained supercell. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west northwest of Dyersburg TN to 70 miles east of Nashville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0136 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0136 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 136 SEVERE TSTM AL AR MS TN 102035Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 136 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Far Eastern Arkansas Northern and Central Mississippi Far Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Robust thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon and spread southeastward through the evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail generally ranging from 1-2 inches in diameter. Scattered severe/damaging winds, with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph, should also occur as clusters form later this afternoon and evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles north northwest of Greenwood MS to 25 miles northeast of Anniston AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 135... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from portions of the lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast through this afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds should be the main threats. ...20z Update... Ahead of the cold front moving across the OH/MS Valleys, strong heating has promoted gradual destabilization and multiple corridors of storm formation this afternoon. 70s and 80s F surface temperatures indicate the air mass is well-mixed with dewpoints generally in the 40s F. The relatively dry boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer of stronger tropospheric winds, and a threat for scattered damaging winds. Some clustering and a stronger cold pool currently becoming established may focus this threat across the lower OH Valley into parts of TN/KY. Otherwise, isolated damaging gusts and some hail are possible. Across parts of the mid to lower MS valley, predominately cellular storms are expected late this afternoon continuing through the evening. Hail appears likely with these storms given the very favorable lapse rates aloft (8-9 C/km) and elongated hodographs favoring supercells. Some significant hail near 2 inches in diameter cannot be ruled out with the more robust rotating storms. Upscale growth overnight may foster a wind threat as one or more clusters/line segments spread east across AL and GA with damaging gusts. ..Lyons.. 04/10/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Thu Apr 10 2025/ ...Lower Ohio Valley into the Southeast... Large-scale upper troughing is forecast to further amplify today over the eastern CONUS, as multiple embedded shortwave troughs rotate through its base. A lead shortwave trough will advance eastward over the upper OH Valley and central Appalachians through the day, while a trailing shortwave trough is expected to move southeastward across the mid MS Valley, lower OH Valley, and TN Valley through this evening. A weak/diffuse cold front is likewise forecast to develop southeastward across these regions through the day, providing some focus for thunderstorm development later this afternoon and evening. 12Z soundings across the Southeast indicate shallow/limited low-level moisture in place, but also relatively steep mid-level lapse rates. Strong daytime heating, gradual low-level moistening from the southwest, and cooling mid-level temperatures associated with the trailing shortwave trough should all aid in the development of around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of the front by mid afternoon. Weak low-level westerly winds are forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through the mid/upper levels, which will likely foster relatively long/straight hodographs and 40-55+ kt of effective bulk shear. This should easily support organized updrafts, including the potential for supercells. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorm development to occur over the lower OH Valley/Mid-South region by 18-20Z. This initial activity will likely be supercellular, with an associated threat for large hail given steep lapse rates aloft and strong deep-layer shear. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms should develop through the rest of the afternoon and early evening across a larger portion of the lower OH Valley into the TN Valley and Southeast. Any convection which can remain at least semi-discrete should pose a continued hail threat. Some tendency for upscale growth into multiple bowing clusters seems likely by late afternoon/early evening. A well-mixed boundary layer should support efficient downward momentum transfer and a threat for scattered damaging winds, before convection eventually weakens by mid/late evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more