SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... A few hours of locally elevated fire weather conditions are possible this afternoon across portions of the Northeast into New England, where minimum RH values of 35-45% and sustained surface winds of 10-15 mph overlap critically receptive fuels. However, the fire-weather threat appears too brief/spotty for an Elevated fire weather area. Otherwise, the fire weather forecast remains on track, with locally elevated fire weather conditions also possible across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. Please see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Elliott.. 11/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Nov 2 16:36:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into Oklahoma. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows an upper trough over CA/NV moving east, and this feature will become centered over the Four Corners late tonight into early Sunday morning. A lead mid-level vorticity maximum over eastern AZ will move into eastern NM by late this evening as more appreciable mid-level height falls overspread the southern High Plains tonight. A diffuse warm front in northwest TX arches northeastward through central OK to the east of morning showers/thunderstorms. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... An ongoing band of weak to occasional and localized strong thunderstorms extends from south-central KS southwestward through western OK and into the TX South Plains, where convective outflow slowly moves south into northern parts of the Permian Basin. Related convective effects and rainfall from the Low Rolling Plains northeast into central OK renders a mesoscale area of low confidence in storm evolution later today/tonight and the associated severe threat. Models indicate appreciably strong low-level theta-e advection will largely offset and hinder eastward progress of convective outflow over southwest/central OK with gradual destabilization of this airmass expected southeast of the convection. Model CAM guidance does seem to support a rejuvenation of storms ---beginning late this afternoon into the evening over parts of west and northwest TX--- and later moving into OK later this evening into the overnight in the form of a squall line. Have opted to not substantially change the prior outlook over OK despite some concern about observational trends (e.g., considerable cloud cover, destabilization). Farther southwest, storm outflow will likely stall across northern parts of the Permian Basin. Along and south of this outflow, moist southeasterly flow will maintain a fetch of lower 60s deg F dewpoints across the Trans-Pecos and Permian Basin, contributing to moderate destabilization by mid-late afternoon (around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE). Elongated hodographs atop some hodograph curvature in the lowest 1-2 km will support supercell development with the stronger storms as early as 21 UTC and into the evening. Upscale growth into a couple of linear clusters is expected with time this evening with the severe risk transitioning from all hazards to mainly a wind and localized hail risk as this activity moves from west TX into northwest TX. ..Smith/Moore.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a full-latitude trough is located from BC down the West Coast States to Baja. A series of accompanying shortwaves and speed maxima -- predominantly remaining behind the height axis -- will contribute to the trough's eastward shift across the western parts of the CONUS and Canada through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should extend from the Mackenzie River Valley of northwestern Canada, across the length of AB, to western MT, the central/eastern Great Basin, western/central AZ, Sonora, and southern Baja. An extensive fetch of southwest flow aloft and height falls will precede the trough over the U.S Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. In the slower southern part of that southwest flow, a basal shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of AZ and the eastern Sonora/western Chihuahua area. This feature is augmenting the more diffuse, large-scale support from the synoptic trough for the warm/moist advection regime and related, extensive band of thunderstorms and precip observed from southern NM to southern KS. This perturbation should reach eastern NM and far west TX by 00Z, then perhaps with convective vorticity enhancement, eject northeastward into portions of KS and western OK overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over the Atlantic well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic region, becoming quasistationary across northern FL, the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity and southeast TX, then a warm front over central/northwest TX. The western segment of this boundary should move slowly and diffusely northeastward today into OK as a warm front. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in a southwest/northeast- oriented band should shift eastward over the outlook areas today into this evening, offering mainly isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, with a low-end threat for embedded/QLCS mesovortex tornadoes. Hail and tornado potential will be greatest farther southwest today over parts of west TX and extreme southeastern NM. Available/modified RAOB data and objective SPC mesoanalyses indicate effective inflow parcels already are surface-based south and west of the effective warm front, across western OK, northwest TX, and the South Plains to the Permian Basin. This should remain the case throughout today, as muted diabatic heating and theta-e advection slowly destabilize the warm sector south of the convective boundary. This will combine with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from around 2000 J/kg over southeastern NM and the South Plains/Permian Basin regions, to around 500 J/kg near the diffuse warm front in central OK. The approaching synoptic and shortwave troughs will tighten height gradients enough to boost deep shear, contributing to around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Meanwhile, low-level hodographs should exhibit enough size/curvature and lowest-km RH to suggest at least marginal tornado potential. While the parameter space (as sampled by various model soundings) will be favorable for the full range of severe hazards in and near the "slight risk" corridor today, a somewhat anafrontal character to the convective band is expected, given that it will be nearly parallel to the flow aloft and slowly progressive due to quasi- linear outflow effects. Sustained and/or discrete supercell potential appears greatest near the southern end of the regime over the Permian Basin region, where instability should be greatest today amid favorable shear, thereby relatively maximizing overall probabilities for tornadoes and large to significant-severe (2+ inch) hail. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0746 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight, primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, a full-latitude trough is located from BC down the West Coast States to Baja. A series of accompanying shortwaves and speed maxima -- predominantly remaining behind the height axis -- will contribute to the trough's eastward shift across the western parts of the CONUS and Canada through the period. By 12Z tomorrow, the trough should extend from the Mackenzie River Valley of northwestern Canada, across the length of AB, to western MT, the central/eastern Great Basin, western/central AZ, Sonora, and southern Baja. An extensive fetch of southwest flow aloft and height falls will precede the trough over the U.S Rocky Mountains and Great Plains. In the slower southern part of that southwest flow, a basal shortwave trough was evident in moisture-channel imagery over parts of AZ and the eastern Sonora/western Chihuahua area. This feature is augmenting the more diffuse, large-scale support from the synoptic trough for the warm/moist advection regime and related, extensive band of thunderstorms and precip observed from southern NM to southern KS. This perturbation should reach eastern NM and far west TX by 00Z, then perhaps with convective vorticity enhancement, eject northeastward into portions of KS and western OK overnight. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a cold front over the Atlantic well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic region, becoming quasistationary across northern FL, the north-central Gulf Coast vicinity and southeast TX, then a warm front over central/northwest TX. The western segment of this boundary should move slowly and diffusely northeastward today into OK as a warm front. ...Southern High Plains to portions of OK... Scattered to numerous thunderstorms in a southwest/northeast- oriented band should shift eastward over the outlook areas today into this evening, offering mainly isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail, with a low-end threat for embedded/QLCS mesovortex tornadoes. Hail and tornado potential will be greatest farther southwest today over parts of west TX and extreme southeastern NM. Available/modified RAOB data and objective SPC mesoanalyses indicate effective inflow parcels already are surface-based south and west of the effective warm front, across western OK, northwest TX, and the South Plains to the Permian Basin. This should remain the case throughout today, as muted diabatic heating and theta-e advection slowly destabilize the warm sector south of the convective boundary. This will combine with mid 60s to low 70s F surface dewpoints, offsetting modest midlevel lapse rates enough to support peak/preconvective MLCAPE ranging from around 2000 J/kg over southeastern NM and the South Plains/Permian Basin regions, to around 500 J/kg near the diffuse warm front in central OK. The approaching synoptic and shortwave troughs will tighten height gradients enough to boost deep shear, contributing to around 35-45-kt effective-shear magnitudes. Meanwhile, low-level hodographs should exhibit enough size/curvature and lowest-km RH to suggest at least marginal tornado potential. While the parameter space (as sampled by various model soundings) will be favorable for the full range of severe hazards in and near the "slight risk" corridor today, a somewhat anafrontal character to the convective band is expected, given that it will be nearly parallel to the flow aloft and slowly progressive due to quasi- linear outflow effects. Sustained and/or discrete supercell potential appears greatest near the southern end of the regime over the Permian Basin region, where instability should be greatest today amid favorable shear, thereby relatively maximizing overall probabilities for tornadoes and large to significant-severe (2+ inch) hail. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 11/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A benign pattern for appreciable severe appears likely to commence by D4/Tuesday, although low-probability severe potential may exist during the period. In the wake of a dampening positive-tilt mid/upper trough near the Great Lakes on D4, an upstream shortwave trough digging over the northern Intermountain West should evolve into a cutoff low across the Southwest mid-week. A cold front slowing and then stalling along the western Gulf Coast to Lower MS Valley should be a focus for convection lingering from D3 into D4. Weakening of both deep-layer winds and forcing for ascent will be limiting factors to the severe-storm threat. Modified moisture return will eventually spread back towards the southern High Plains, in advance of the cutoff low. This suggests increasing thunder potential on D6/Thursday, along an inverted surface trough. Even with some ensemble members suggesting ejection of the cutoff low onto the central/southern Great Plains late in the period, the overall pattern appears unlikely to support greater than 15-percent severe probabilities. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0341 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A benign pattern for appreciable severe appears likely to commence by D4/Tuesday, although low-probability severe potential may exist during the period. In the wake of a dampening positive-tilt mid/upper trough near the Great Lakes on D4, an upstream shortwave trough digging over the northern Intermountain West should evolve into a cutoff low across the Southwest mid-week. A cold front slowing and then stalling along the western Gulf Coast to Lower MS Valley should be a focus for convection lingering from D3 into D4. Weakening of both deep-layer winds and forcing for ascent will be limiting factors to the severe-storm threat. Modified moisture return will eventually spread back towards the southern High Plains, in advance of the cutoff low. This suggests increasing thunder potential on D6/Thursday, along an inverted surface trough. Even with some ensemble members suggesting ejection of the cutoff low onto the central/southern Great Plains late in the period, the overall pattern appears unlikely to support greater than 15-percent severe probabilities. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH/EAST TX TO MO... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday into Monday night from parts of north and east Texas to Missouri. Tornadoes and damaging winds should be the main hazards. ...Southern Great Plains to the Mid-MS Valley... An emerging linear MCS should develop early morning Monday (late D2 into early D3) across parts of west TX. This should occur ahead of strong forcing for ascent attendant to a shortwave impulse and intense mid-level speed max moving through the basal portion of a Southwest trough. Guidance consensus continues to indicate a positive-tilt ejection of this wave across the Great Plains. This should yield meridional deep-layer flow predominantly paralleling the cold front moving east, to the south of the primary surface cyclone over the OK-TX Red River Valley advancing northeast. This will also support a largely asymmetrical low-level flow regime, with the core of the low-level jet rapidly shifting north-northeast from the south-central states towards the southern Great Lakes. The strongest 850-700 mb wind fields are expected Monday night, with slight deepening of the surface cyclone tracking towards the IA/WI/IL area. The degree of instability is questionable, especially with north-northeast extent, given abundant preceding convection ahead of the probable squall line. Primary daytime severe threat will depend on the degree of surface heating near/north of the Red River Valley, as mid-level lapse rates should be weak. With the richest boundary-layer moisture emanating north across east TX, a focused corridor of greater tornado/wind potential may become clearer in later outlooks. Spatial extent of the wind and embedded tornado threat may peak during the evening from TX to MO. With time on Monday night, convection over the south-central states will likely slow its eastward advance and may yield more undercutting outflow as large-scale ascent quickly shifts north. The extent of severe potential northeast of the Ozarks will be limited by progressively weaker instability. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... On the backside of a highly amplified large-scale trough over the Intermountain West, strong deep-layer northerly flow will overspread CA. In response, the offshore pressure gradient will tighten across southern CA -- along the southwestern periphery of a strengthening surface anticyclone over the northern Great Basin. The tightening offshore pressure gradient and strong mid/upper-level northerly flow will promote strong/gusty northerly surface winds across portions of southern CA. While RH reductions may be somewhat marginal, these winds will favor locally enhanced fire-weather conditions over wind-prone mountains/valleys -- especially into the overnight/early morning hours when the pressure gradient peaks. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. Farther north, locally dry and breezy conditions are expected across portions of the Sacramento Valley during the afternoon. However, preceding rainfall and marginal RH reductions should limit the overall fire-weather threat here. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Preceding a highly amplified large-scale trough over the western CONUS, moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southwest into the southern/central Rockies. Over the Southwest, boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will promote dry/breezy conditions during the afternoon. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized and marginal for highlights. ..Weinman.. 11/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Sat Nov 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF OK TO THE TX BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible in multiple rounds from midday Sunday through Sunday night. The most likely area affected includes parts of Oklahoma into north and west-central Texas. Tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur. ...Synopsis... A full-latitude mid/upper trough will gradually progress east onto the Prairie Provinces and across the Desert Southwest/northwest Mexico. Multiple upper jet streaks are consistently progged ahead of the trough over the Great Plains. Mid-level southwesterlies will also strengthen, but the fastest flow will remain on the backside of the trough through Sunday afternoon. This jetlet will progress into the base of the trough on Sunday night, coincident with a vigorous shortwave impulse. Initial surface cyclogenesis will occur over the central High Plains and track into MN/IA by 12Z Monday. Additional cyclogenesis will occur Sunday night across the Pecos Valley into western north TX. ...Central to southern Great Plains... A complex setup remains evident during the D2 period with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A decaying MCS should be ongoing across parts of the Ozarks southwestward into north TX, with outflow reinforcing a baroclinic zone across the Red River region. Guidance is highly consistent in suggesting the next round of west TX convection developing by late morning. This activity should intensify and increase in coverage midday through the afternoon as it tracks along the baroclinic zone that amplifies with differential surface heating. CAMs consistently indicate quick upscale growth to an organized linear cluster, with embedded supercell structures amid strong mid/upper southwesterlies. Low-level shear will initially be modest, and does not appear to be favorably timed with the relatively early upscale growth. Still, this potential MCS will eventually impinge on greater low-level SRH as it tracks towards and east of the I-35 corridor, yielding some embedded tornado risk. A final round of strong to severe convection should develop overnight across west TX as forcing for ascent increases again ahead of the aforementioned wave. Across these multiple rounds, a mixed/all-hazards threat will be possible. A separate area of low-level warm advection-driven convection may develop across the northeast TX vicinity during the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and convection along the instability gradient will probably temper the overall threat. But adequate low-level SRH will exist for a low-probability, all-hazards threat. Convective development along the dryline near the central High Plains cyclone in western KS is uncertain. The deleterious effects of persistent OK/north TX convection should yield a rather confined and limited MLCAPE plume in KS. Conditionally, the environment will be favorable for discrete supercells with highly elongated mid/upper hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. A sustained supercell or two might become established in the 00-03Z time frame. Otherwise, some later evening elevated hail risk may occur downstream into NE and north KS. ..Grams.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1153 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS...AND INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible later today and tonight primarily from the Permian Basin and South Plains into southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... An upper trough over the western CONUS will become highly amplified, with strong cooling aloft overspreading the Great Basin and Four Corners states. Southwest winds will increase across the Plains, with a weak lee trough developing along the length of the High Plains. Increasing southerly surface winds will bring a moist air mass northward across the southern Plains, resulting in widespread rain and thunderstorms primary from northwest TX across OK and into KS. Elsewhere, a large upper high will maintain relatively dry conditions over the eastern CONUS. ...Parts of western TX and southeast NM into southwest OK... Substantial rain and storms are likely to be ongoing from southeast NM into parts of the South Plains/TX Panhandle early, in a zone of moisture advection. An unstable air mass will already be in place with around 1500 J/kg MUCAPE, beneath moderate southwest flow aloft. Outflow boundaries may exist relatively early in the day, and may limit northward extent of the severe risk initially. However, at least marginal hail could extend northward into the cooler surface air mass from the TX Panhandle into western OK. The greatest severe risk appears to be with diurnal activity that will form along the eastern fringe of the strongest heating coming out of far west TX, and, just on the south side of any aggregate outflow boundaries extending across northwest TX and into southwest OK. Increasing SRH, especially during the evening, may favor a couple tornadoes with the more discrete cells away from the larger heavy rain mass (see WPC Excessive Rainfall products for more information). Otherwise, occasional strong to damaging gusts may occur with any bowing structures traveling northeastward along the composite outflow/front as far east as central OK through the evening and overnight. ..Jewell/Weinman.. 11/02/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0715 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 020100Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated marginally severe hail and/or gusts are possible across parts of the southern High Plains later tonight. ...Eastern NM into western TX... Storms are expected to form over eastern NM between 03-06Z, expanding in coverage and spreading into the western TX Panhandle and South Plains late. Isolated strong storms are also anticipated extending southwestward toward El Paso TX. Marginal hail or wind, and locally heavy rain will be possible. See the WPC Day 1 Excessive Rainfall Outlook for more information. ..Jewell.. 11/02/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Nov 1 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Nov 1 22:32:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0518 PM CDT Fri Nov 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 091200Z A mid-level trough will deepen across the Interior West on Sunday and will de-amplify while ejecting into the Mississippi Valley by mid-week, when another mid-level trough will amplify across the western U.S. As both mid-level troughs amplify, surface high pressure will build across the Interior West as surface cyclone development takes place across the Plains on Sunday and mid-week. On Days 3 and 6 (Sunday and Wednesday), medium-range guidance shows deep-layer northwesterly flow overspreading California as the backside of the mid-level trough coincides with a surface pressure gradient across the state. Dry and breezy conditions may occur across northern parts of the northern California Valley region, though questions regarding marginal RH dips and fuel receptiveness preclude Critical probabilities in this region. Locally dry and breezy conditions may also occur over the higher terrain-favoring areas around the Los Angeles area Sunday evening into Monday morning. However, the relatively greater threat for dry offshore surface flow in this region may occur on Day 6/Wednesday, when a stronger surface gradient may develop, necessitating the introduction of 40 percent Critical probabilities. ..Squitieri.. 11/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more