SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected today across parts of the southern High Plains and into western Oklahoma. More broadly, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across much of the southern and central Plains where fuels remain critical dry after minimal rainfall over the past week. 05 UTC surface observations show surface pressure falls across eastern CO/western KS as a surface low begins to organized ahead of an approaching upper-level trough. Rapid cyclogenesis is anticipated through the afternoon across northwest KS, resulting in a robust low-level mass response across the Plains. ...Southern High Plains... Recent surface observations show 5-15 F dewpoints in place across southeast NM and southwest TX. The 00z MAF sounding sampled even drier air within the residual boundary layer that will quickly mix to the surface by early afternoon. Widespread 25-30 mph gradient winds are expected across much of the southern High Plains with sustained 30-35 mph winds likely under the low-level thermal ridge due to a combination of terrain enhancements along/off the Caprock and maximized boundary-layer mixing. The Extremely Critical risk area aligns with the forecast location of the low-level thermal ridge axis by late afternoon to the west of the dryline. Latest guidance continues to suggest that the dryline will remain across western OK into northwest TX, but extreme/near-extreme fire weather conditions may spread further east if guidance is under-mixing the eastward progression of this boundary. Winds are expected to strengthen slightly and shift from southwest to westerly around/after 21 UTC as a Pacific cold front pushes into the southern High Plains in tandem with the mid-level jet. The combination of increasing wind gusts (possibly up to 50-60 mph) and the directional change may support rapid fire spread with any ongoing fires. ...Central/Eastern TX, OK, KS into MO... To the east of the dryline, a broad swath of 15-25 mph winds is expected across central TX, OK, KS, and adjacent portions of MO. Shallow low-level moisture along the TX Coastal Plain and dewpoints in the 40s off the Gulf coast suggest that moisture return ahead of the dryline will be poor. Filtered diurnal heating will likely support sufficient boundary-layer mixing to promote RH reductions into the teens and 20s and 15-25 mph winds ahead of the dryline. Forecast guidance typically under mixes the boundary layer in these regime, resulting in more widespread elevated/critical fire weather conditions than otherwise predicted. As such, the Elevated/Critical risk areas have been expanded to account for this bias. ..Moore.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley... A broad cyclonic flow pattern will be in place over much of the continental U.S. on Wednesday. At the mid-levels, a trough will move from the central Plains into the Ozarks, as southwest flow strengthens over the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the start of the period, a cluster of thunderstorms associated with an isolated large hail threat, will be ongoing over parts of Iowa and southern Wisconsin. At the surface, a low will move eastward into northern Illinois by afternoon, as low-level moisture increases across the mid Mississippi Valley. A north-to-south corridor with surface dewpoints in the 50s F will setup from southeast Missouri into south-central Illinois. A 50 to 60 knot low-level jet will consolidate over the extreme western portion of the lower Ohio Valley. Thunderstorms appear likely to initiate during the mid afternoon, along and near the moist axis, and to the west of the low-level jet. These storms will move eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys in the late afternoon and early evening. Although instability will remain weak along the moist axis, organized cells could develop across eastern Illinois and western Indiana within an area of strong large-scale ascent. Forecast soundings in eastern Illinois by late afternoon have MUCAPE peaking in the 400 to 600 J/kg range, with very strong deep-layer shear in excess of 80 knots. Cells that can persist in this environment could produce severe gusts and hail. ...Central Gulf Coast States... Cyclonically-curved mid-level southwest flow will be in place across much of the Southeast on Wednesday. The entrance region of a 90 to 100 mid-level jet will overspread the Ark-La-Tex, as a cold front moves eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be mostly in the upper 50s and lower 60s F. During the late afternoon, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop just ahead of the front in an area of focused low-level convergence from north-central Mississippi into northwest Alabama. Forecast soundings in north-central Mississippi at 00Z/Thursday have MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear near 70 knot. This could be enough for an isolated severe threat associated with the stronger multicells, and perhaps a rotating storm. Marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ..Broyles.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible later tonight from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...NE/IA... Seasonally strong upper trough is progressing inland across CA into the Great Basin early this morning. This feature is forecast to advance across the central Rockies into the High Plains by early evening as 90+kt 500mb speed max translates across NM into OK by the end of the period. This evolution warrants a lee cyclone repositioning itself over western KS by 19/00z with subsequent movement into northeast KS/northwest MO by sunrise. LLJ will increase markedly across eastern OK/KS during the late evening, and strong low-level warm advection will focus along a corridor from eastern NE into northern IA. Increasing large-scale ascent and steepening mid-level lapse rates will aid buoyancy along this corridor as profiles moisten and saturate near 2km. Forecast soundings exhibit MUCAPE in excess of 700 J/kg and this should support robust elevated convection ahead of the approaching short wave. However, due to the limited instability, it appears the primary risk with this activity will be isolated, marginally severe hail. Greatest risk for strong storms will be across eastern NE/western IA along the nose of the LLJ. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 180100Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast tonight. ...01z Update... Upper trough is advancing inland along the Pacific Coast early this evening. Isolated thunderstorms have developed beneath this trough as cold mid-level temperatures have steepened lapse rates. 00z sounding from OAK exhibited a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE, and this seems to be representative across the interior valleys. Over the next few hours nocturnal cooling should result in weaker updrafts and less lightning. Overall trends should be down after 03z. ..Darrow.. 03/18/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 17 22:10:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 17 22:10:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0424 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 Wednesday through D5 Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated to Critical fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D3 - Wednesday. The best alignment of fuels and Critically dry conditions will be from southeastern New Mexico into western Texas and along the Mexico border into portions of south-central Texas. The 70 percent Critical probabilities were expanded further south with this outlook. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D4-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D4/Thursday into D5/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central/southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D5 - Friday, 40 percent probabilities and 70 percent were maintained with this outlook. ...D3 Wednesday, West Virginia Southern Pennsylvania... Strong southerly flow will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20 percent across portions of Western Virginia into southern Pennsylvania on Wednesday. A small 40 percent region was added to cover this risk with recent fire activity suggesting fuels are receptive to spread. ...D6 Sunday through D8 Monday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the midwest on D7 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ---A wildfire outbreak is likely across portions of southeastern New Mexico into northwest Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and western Oklahoma.--- ...Southern High Plains... The D2 Extremely Critical area was expanded into western Oklahoma with this outlook. Conditions look favorable across this region beneath the axis of the low-level thermal ridge, with sustained winds 25-30 mph (gusting 50-60 mph),relative humidity around 10-15 percent, and temperatures warming in to the upper 70s to 80s. In addition, concerns continue for ongoing fires and changes in fire behavior with the eastward shift of the dryline Tuesday afternoon and potential wind shift from southerly to westerly by the afternoon. The D2 Critical was expanded across central Oklahoma with this outlook to account for eastward mixing of the dryline Tuesday afternoon. While there is some uncertainty in duration of Critical winds and relative humidity, strong gusts along the boundary in addition to a shift in the winds from southerly to westerly through time will likely change fire behavior in ongoing fires and create concern for the afternoon. ...Southern Arizona and New Mexico... The Critical area was extended across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico with this outlook to account for recent trends. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHERN ARIZONA INTO PORTIONS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ---A wildfire outbreak is likely across portions of southeastern New Mexico into northwest Texas, the Texas Panhandle, and western Oklahoma.--- ...Southern High Plains... The D2 Extremely Critical area was expanded into western Oklahoma with this outlook. Conditions look favorable across this region beneath the axis of the low-level thermal ridge, with sustained winds 25-30 mph (gusting 50-60 mph),relative humidity around 10-15 percent, and temperatures warming in to the upper 70s to 80s. In addition, concerns continue for ongoing fires and changes in fire behavior with the eastward shift of the dryline Tuesday afternoon and potential wind shift from southerly to westerly by the afternoon. The D2 Critical was expanded across central Oklahoma with this outlook to account for eastward mixing of the dryline Tuesday afternoon. While there is some uncertainty in duration of Critical winds and relative humidity, strong gusts along the boundary in addition to a shift in the winds from southerly to westerly through time will likely change fire behavior in ongoing fires and create concern for the afternoon. ...Southern Arizona and New Mexico... The Critical area was extended across southern Arizona and southern New Mexico with this outlook to account for recent trends. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main change made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update was to trim thunder probabilities across the Carolinas to the immediate shoreline. Here, ascent and adequate buoyancy supporting thunderstorms continues to be shunted offshore as the upper trough ejects into the Atlantic. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN IL AND WESTERN IN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of eastern Illinois and western Indiana during the mid-afternoon to early evening Wednesday. Damaging winds should be the primary hazard. ...Eastern Corn Belt to the Deep South... In what is otherwise a favorable synoptic pattern for severe potential, low-level moisture quality is expected to be the primary limiting factor to greater coverage/intensity on Wednesday. At present, surface dew points have finally modified into the 40s to mid 50s along the immediate TX Coast, with upper 50s to low 60s in a ribbon offshore. There is above-average agreement that a broadening plume of mid 60s surface dew points should become established by Wednesday afternoon across the western half of the immediate Gulf Coast. A more narrow ribbon is expected northward with low 60s into the Lower MS Valley to low/mid 50s in the Wabash Valley. A 100-110 kt 500-mb jetlet should overspread the northern portion of the weak buoyancy plume from the Mid-South to Wabash Valley on Wednesday afternoon. Sustained convective development is expected by early to mid-afternoon within the left-exit region of this jet in IL, ahead of a deep (~990 mb) surface cyclone. Guidance does signal that low-level winds outside of the warm front may be somewhat veered, which would modulate hodograph curvature. Still, a few supercells that may congeal into a fast-moving cluster are possible, centered on the eastern IL to western IN vicinity from mid-afternoon to early evening. Strong to severe wind gusts may be the primary hazard, although some hail and tornado threat will be possible too. Given the weak MLCAPE, relatively warm temperatures aloft south of the mid-level jet may preclude sustained surface-based convective development until early evening. Rather veered low-level winds should further serve to marginalize the intensity/coverage of severe potential across the TN Valley/Deep South. ..Grams.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1206 PM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will remain possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Synopsis... A pronounced mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states, encouraging rapid surface cyclone development and intensification along the KS/OK border Tuesday. As this occurs, very strong low-level flow will encourage the northward advection of marginal moisture across the Plains toward the Midwest. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, low-level moisture convergence along the terminus of the low-level jet will encourage thunderstorm development along an effective warm front. Given strong vertical wind shear in proximity to the low-level jet terminus, a few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible. ...Central Plains/Midwest... After 06Z, the nose of a 50+ kt south-southwesterly low-level jet will become established roughly along the KS/NE/IA/MO border, where isentropic lift will encourage elevated thunderstorm development above an inversion layer (roughly 800-700 mb in altitude). Above the inversion, forecast soundings show 8-9 C/km mid-level lapse rates contributing to 500-1000 J/kg MUCAPE, with elongated/straight hodographs contributing to 50 kts of effective bulk shear. This environment will support elevated supercells traversing the effective warm front with a threat for hail, a few instances of which may exceed severe limits. Timing for any severe hail appears to fall within the 06-12Z Wednesday morning period. ..Squitieri.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1146 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... The D1 Fire Weather Outlook was updated to add two Critical areas. ...Eastern Colorado, Eastern Wyoming, and western Nebraska... Downslope warming and drying is expected in the lee of the high terrain across eastern Colorado into eastern Wyoming and western Nebraska today. Though winds will likely peak in the morning and early afternoon, it appears a sufficient window of Critical conditions is likely, supporting inclusion of these areas with this update. ...Florida Peninsula... Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are likely across the Florida Peninsula today. Some portion of this area did receive wetting rainfall yesterday, however, ongoing drought stress in combination with fuel loading and sustained winds northwest at 20-25 mph should be sufficient for fuels to be receptive to fire spread. Coordination with local partners supports these concerns and as such a broad Elevated and more focused Critical area was added with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more