MD 1832 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 599... FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1832 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0711 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of southeastern Georgia and adjacent southeastern South Carolina Concerning...Tornado Watch 599... Valid 060011Z - 060215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 599 continues. SUMMARY...Tornado threat may increase a bit over the next couple of hours, northeast of the center of T. S. Debby. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows the center of Debby drifting slowly northeastward, now across the Georgia/Florida state line. Northeast of the center of circulation, offshore east of the mouth of the Savannah River, some increase in low-level circulations associated with cellular convection has been noted over the past hour. While these circulations have continued to weaken as cells approach the coast, and to this point none have moved onshore, there appears to be a slightly greater chance that this occurs -- which could pose risk for a brief tornado(es). Greatest risk in the short term would appear to be over coastal/far southeastern South Carolina (coastal portions of Jasper/Beaufort/Charleston/Colleton Counties) in South Carolina. ..Goss.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 30968125 31338145 31768235 32208238 32618159 32858036 32417920 31767981 31138021 30968125 Read more

MD 1833 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN IDAHO...FAR NORTHEAST OREGON...FAR WESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1833 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0718 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...northern Idaho...far northeast Oregon...far western Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 060018Z - 060115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk of severe hail and wind. DISCUSSION...Cells ongoing across portions of northern Idaho will have potential to produce instances of large hail and damaging wind. A few reports of hail 0.75-1 inch have been reported in the last hour. More discrete cells will continue to pose risk of large hail, given MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear around 50 kts. Clusters and linear segments will pose potential for damaging wind, given deeply mixed profiles and steep low to mid-level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km. Overall, this threat will remain too localized for watch issuance. ..Thornton/Smith.. 08/06/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...BOI...OTX...PDT... LAT...LON 46221665 45531737 45211691 45171600 45121593 45021466 45201402 45441379 45791354 46161344 46551388 46501509 46221665 Read more

WW 0601 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 601 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..THORNTON..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...LOT...DVN...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 601 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC007-015-037-063-085-089-091-093-099-103-111-141-177-197-201- 060140- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOONE CARROLL DE KALB GRUNDY JO DAVIESS KANE KANKAKEE KENDALL LA SALLE LEE MCHENRY OGLE STEPHENSON WILL WINNEBAGO INC073-111-060140- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE JASPER NEWTON WIC045-049-065-105-060140- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0600 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW FRM TO 30 E MKT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1831 ..SMITH..08/06/24 ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...FSD...MPX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 600 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-013-017-019-023-033-037-043-055-061-065-067-081-089-109- 131-189-191-195-060100- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE BLACK HAWK BREMER BUCHANAN BUTLER CERRO GORDO CHICKASAW CLAYTON DELAWARE DUBUQUE FAYETTE FLOYD HANCOCK HOWARD KOSSUTH MITCHELL WINNEBAGO WINNESHIEK WORTH MNC039-043-045-047-055-099-109-147-060100- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DODGE FARIBAULT FILLMORE FREEBORN HOUSTON MOWER OLMSTED STEELE Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE TO 30 SW JHW TO 25 NW ELM TO 35 SE ROC TO 10 ENE ROC. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC023-033-035-047-081-083-105-113-117-123-060040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON CLEARFIELD CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN POTTER SULLIVAN TIOGA WARREN LEZ020-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CLE TO 30 SW JHW TO 25 NW ELM TO 35 SE ROC TO 10 ENE ROC. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BUF...BGM...CLE...PBZ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 597 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC023-033-035-047-081-083-105-113-117-123-060040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON CLEARFIELD CLINTON ELK LYCOMING MCKEAN POTTER SULLIVAN TIOGA WARREN LEZ020-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE UPPER NIAGARA RIVER AND BUFFALO HARBOR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSM TO 25 ESE EEN TO 25 W EEN TO 40 ESE UCA. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-060040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-060040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN NYC035-057-091-093-115-060040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON MONTGOMERY SARATOGA SCHENECTADY WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0598 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSM TO 25 ESE EEN TO 25 W EEN TO 40 ESE UCA. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...BOX...GYX...ALY... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 598 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-060040- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK NHC001-005-011-013-015-017-019-060040- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELKNAP CHESHIRE HILLSBOROUGH MERRIMACK ROCKINGHAM STRAFFORD SULLIVAN NYC035-057-091-093-115-060040- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FULTON MONTGOMERY SARATOGA SCHENECTADY WASHINGTON Read more

WW 0599 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 599 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..GOSS..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 599 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC029-051-103-179-183-191-060040- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRYAN CHATHAM EFFINGHAM LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH SCC013-015-019-029-035-049-053-060040- SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERKELEY CHARLESTON COLLETON DORCHESTER HAMPTON JASPER AMZ330-350-352-354-370-372-374-060040- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CHARLESTON HARBOR Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0442 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 131200Z The extended period will be characterized primarily by modest mid-level zonal flow across the Northwest and Northern Rockies, as well as warming and drying across much of the Western U.S. beneath a mid-level anticyclone centered over the Great Basin. Some chances for isolated dry thunderstorms will exist early on in the forecast period, but predictability of thunderstorm occurrence later on in the period will be low. Mid-level zonal flow and a shortwave trough are expected to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of the Northwest by D6/Saturday. ...Dry Thunder... Monsoonal moisture will persist over the Great Basin, resulting in chances for dry thunderstorms across eastern UT, western CO, and far southern WY on D3/Wednesday and D4/Thursday. By D4/Thursday, modest PWAT values of 0.6-0.75 in will overspread portions of far eastern Idaho into southern Montana, resulting in some chances for dry thunderstorms further north into those regions. Some modification to these areas may be needed due to wetting rainfall in the preceding days. Dry thunderstorm chances could persist into D6/Saturday and D7/Sunday, but predictability remains too low at this time to highlight any specific areas. ...Dry/Windy... Modest zonal flow will support some Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather conditions across the Snake River Plain in Idaho on D3/Wednesday. Afterwards, flow will remain generally weak until D6/Saturday, when Euro and GFS forecasts signal an intensification of the geopotential height gradient over Idaho owing to an approaching shortwave trough, increasing mid-level flow. Dry and windy conditions beneath this enhanced flow could result in Critical fire-weather conditions, and these conditions may persist into D7/Sunday. However, uncertainties remain in the magnitude of the flow and resulting surface winds, so highlights have been reserved for D6/Saturday, where there is better agreement in critical conditions. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 052000Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER A SMALL PART OF THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southeast South Carolina. Little overall change to the outlook at 20Z. An expansive shield of heavy rain stretches from northern FL into SC in association with Tropical Storm Debby. Low-level shear remains favorable to support rotation within any stronger embedded cells, and a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1826. A corridor of strong instability has developed from eastern SD into northern IL. Storms may develop soon near the SD/MN border, with east/southeastward development along a warm front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1827. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. Read more

MD 1824 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK.
Mesoscale Discussion 1824 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Areas affected...northeast Ohio...northwest and north-central Pennsylvania...western and central New York. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 051648Z - 051815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Destabilization is underway from northern Ohio into southern New York where temperatures have warmed into the mid 80s with dewpoints near 70F. Weak confluence in the vicinity if a stationary front across the region, in addition to some lake-breeze convergence, will be the primary focus for convective initiation as a weak mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region from the west. Moderate west-northwesterly shear (40 to 45 knots) will support supercells with the threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE... LAT...LON 41018217 41888171 42617947 42937903 43187840 43257653 43087584 42137597 41187859 40968019 40718141 41018217 Read more

WW 0596 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 596 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/05/24 ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 596 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-031-035-041-049-053-057-069-075-081- 083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127- 051840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO HILLSBOROUGH LAKE LEVY MANATEE MARION NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA GAC025-029-039-049-051-109-127-179-183-191-229-267-299-305- 051840- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN Read more

WW 596 TORNADO FL GA CW 050955Z - 052000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 596 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 AM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and northern Florida Southeastern Georgia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday morning and afternoon from 555 AM until 400 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...Per NHC forecasts, Hurricane Debby should move slowly northeastward/inland after landfall, to near the FL/GA line during the duration of this watch. Associated tornado potential -- mainly northeast through southeast of center -- should spread over the watch area and across more of northern FL and southeastern GA through early/mid afternoon. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east southeast of Saint Petersburg FL to 50 miles north of Brunswick GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 595. Watch number 595 will not be in effect after 555 AM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 18035. ...Edwards Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...AND FROM CENTRAL MONTANA TO THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong storms are likely over much of Montana, and from parts of Ohio into western Pennsylvania. A few severe wind gusts are expected over southern Arizona, while tropical storm Debby affects parts of the Southeast. ..MT into western SD... Moderate westerly flow aloft will exist north of the upper ridge, which will remain centered over the Four Corners states. A wave moving across ID and into MT will flatten the ridge late in the day coincident with peak heating, resulting in very steep lapse rates and increasing deep-layer shear. Scattered storms are forecast to develop over western MT by 21Z, extending as far south as Yellowstone. These cells will quickly move east, producing both strong to severe gusts and hail. Some of the hail may exceed 1" diameter given favorably long hodographs and cooling temperatures aloft. Cells are then forecast to evolve southeastward into northern/eastern WY and perhaps toward the Black Hills late where instability may remain sufficient through early evening. ...IN/OH/PA... A prominent east-west front will stretch from northern IL to the southern border of Lower MI toward Lake Erie by midday, with a moist and unstable air mass to the south. A weak shortwave trough will move toward the area out of the northwest, with winds aloft primarily parallel to the frontal zone. A plume of theta-e will spread eastward ahead of this front as well, into much of PA during the day. Elevated storms are possible north of the front into Lower MI, with a gradual expansion of surface-based development after 20Z from northern IN across northern OH. Clusters of storms may produce locally damaging gusts as they spread east/southeastward through early evening. Other isolated cells will be possible farther east into PA, aided by warm advection out of the southwest. Some of these cells could produce isolated hail. ...Central and southern AZ... Ample moisture will remain in place on Tuesday to support scattered afternoon storms developing over the higher terrain with PWAT values near 1.50" in the lower elevations. Easterly midlevel winds around the upper high should aid westward motions with strong wind gusts likely into much of central/southern AZ coincident with peak heating. ...Coastal SC and vicinity... Per NHC guidance, Tropical Storm Debby is expected to move from far southeast GA to just offshore the SC Coast on Tuesday. While substantial rain fall will be the primary concern, will maintain low 2% tornado probabilities due to enhanced shear/SRH coincident with possible upper 70s F dewpoints along the coastal counties. ..Jewell.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The current forecast remains valid, with minimal changes to the Elevated and Isolated Dry Thunderstorm areas to reflect current meteorological and fuels guidance. Some reduction of dry thunder areas may be required in the next update due to wetting rainfall. See previous discussion for more detail. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0201 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Isolated Dry Thunderstorms... Increasing mid-level ascent associated with a shortwave trough will impact the northern and central Rockies on Tuesday. Mainly mid-level moisture above drier boundary layer conditions will support dry thunderstorm chances, with little wetting rainfall expected. Fuels from southwestern MT, southeastward into WY, eastern UT, and northwestern CO are sufficiently dry for new lightning ignitions. In addition, gusty and erratic outflow winds will be possible with any stronger storms that develop. ...Elevated Fire Weather, Snake River Plain Idaho... As the shortwave advances across the northern/central Rockies, a band of enhanced mid-level westerly flow will overspread portions of Idaho and Montana. An increase in winds is expected across the Snake River Plain, where relative-humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will overlap sustained winds 15-20 mph. Occasional localized critical conditions may be possible. Overall, this looks to be too localized to include an area with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0597 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0597 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 597 SEVERE TSTM NY OH PA LE 051720Z - 060000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 597 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 120 PM EDT Mon Aug 5 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern and Western New York Northeast Ohio Northern Pennsylvania Lake Erie * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 120 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to intensify across the watch area through the afternoon. The strongest cells will pose a risk of locally damaging winds gusts and perhaps hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Youngstown OH to 30 miles southeast of Utica NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 596... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible today and tonight from the Upper Ohio Valley into New England, across portions of the Upper Midwest, and from northern Florida into southern Georgia and southeast South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC... TS Debby continues to track slowly northeastward across northern FL. Widespread clouds over the eastern semi-circle will suppress heating/destabilization through the day, although recent trends suggest some mid-level drying beginning to wrap around the south side of the system. Despite weak thermodynamics, overall shear profiles are quite strong and would support a risk of a few tornadoes through the afternoon and night. The threat will spread northeastward along the SC coast through the day as well. ...OH to New England... Fast zonal flow is present today across the Great Lakes and northeast states today, with a 70 knot mid-level jet max tracking from eastern ONT into New England this evening. A corridor of mostly clear skies and strong heating is apparent from northern OH into NY/PA and much of New England today, where afternoon MLCAPE values will range from 1000-1500 J/kg. Most 12z model guidance continues to indicate widely scattered thunderstorms will develop in this zone, with sufficient vertical shear for a few supercell or small bowing structures. Mid-level lapse rates are weak, but the stronger storms may produce locally damaging winds and perhaps hail. ...MN/IA/WI/IL... Latest surface analysis shows a low over southeast SD, with a warm front extending east-southeastward from the low across central IA. Pockets of heating and ample low-level moisture on the north side of the warm front are expected to result in scattered thunderstorms (possibly surface-based) by mid-late afternoon over northwest IA/southwest MN, with storms tracking southeastward along/north of the front. Large CAPE values, steep mid-level lapse rates, and substantial vertical shear profiles will promote supercell storm structures capable of large hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two. ...ID/MT... Water vapor imagery shows a plume of mid-level moisture spreading northward across ID, ahead of a pair of minor shortwave troughs moving across NV/OR/WA. This should lead to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across much of ID and western MT. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk of locally damaging winds in the stronger cells this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1111 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z The overall forecast for dry thunderstorms across portions of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies remains valid, with adjustments to the dry thunder area made to reflect current fuels and thunderstorm guidance. ..Halbert/Lyons.. 08/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Mon Aug 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A shortwave disturbance moving across the northern periphery of the western US ridge will be the focus for thunderstorms across northern Great Basin into the Northern Rockies this afternoon, where a plume of mid-level moisture resides. Dry fuels within these regions will support potential for new ignitions. Gusty and erratic outflow will also be possible. Portions of western Montana/Idaho Panhandle may receive wetting rainfall on D1 Sunday. This area may need to be adjusted in coming outlooks based on status of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more