SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Coastal California... The Marginal Risk across parts of coastal CA has been removed with this update. The 12Z OAK sounding showed a dearth of boundary-layer instability, and a line of low-topped convection has weakened as it moves inland in tandem with a shortwave trough also tracking quickly eastward. While strong winds will remain possible in the short term given the enhanced low/mid-level flow noted on recent VWPs from KMUX, the lack of appreciable surface-based instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat for the rest of the period. ...East/Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains this morning will continue to eject eastward across the mid MS Valley through tonight. Related surface low over eastern KS is forecast to weaken in this time frame, as high pressure will remain entrenched over the East Coast. A cold front is expected to stall over parts of east to central TX later today. While a favorably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of this front, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates aloft should hinder robust updrafts and organized severe potential across east/southeast TX. ..Gleason/Halbert.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141630Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Coastal California... The Marginal Risk across parts of coastal CA has been removed with this update. The 12Z OAK sounding showed a dearth of boundary-layer instability, and a line of low-topped convection has weakened as it moves inland in tandem with a shortwave trough also tracking quickly eastward. While strong winds will remain possible in the short term given the enhanced low/mid-level flow noted on recent VWPs from KMUX, the lack of appreciable surface-based instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat for the rest of the period. ...East/Southeast Texas... A shortwave trough over the southern/central Plains this morning will continue to eject eastward across the mid MS Valley through tonight. Related surface low over eastern KS is forecast to weaken in this time frame, as high pressure will remain entrenched over the East Coast. A cold front is expected to stall over parts of east to central TX later today. While a favorably moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of this front, limited large-scale ascent and poor lapse rates aloft should hinder robust updrafts and organized severe potential across east/southeast TX. ..Gleason/Halbert.. 12/14/2024 Read more

MD 2267 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR EASTERN IOWA...NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS...AND VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 2267 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0458 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Areas affected...eastern Iowa...northwestern Illinois...and vicinity Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 141058Z - 141700Z SUMMARY...Freezing rain -- at rates locally in excess of 0.10"/hour -- will continue spreading north-northeastward across eastern Iowa and into northwestern Illinois through midday. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows an expansive area of precipitation ongoing from the Arklatex region northward across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys this morning. The precipitation is occurring in an area of warm advection/quasigeostropic ascent, east of a 1013 mb surface low over central Kansas, and associated upper low moving eastward across Nebraska and Kansas this morning. A cold boundary layer remains in place across this region, on the western fringe of a 1048 mb high centered in the vicinity of the Pennsylvania/New York border area. As low-level theta-e advection continues ascending atop the cold low-level airmass, resulting ascent will continue to support the broad/ongoing area of precipitation over the next several hours. Currently, the surface freezing line extends from the Omaha area east-southeastward into southern Illinois north of the St. Louis area. North of this line, mixed/wintry precipitation is observed, mainly in the form of freezing rain. The most substantial freezing rain has occurred over southeastern Iowa recently, with KOTM (Ottumwa) reporting 0.13" in the past hour. This area of moderate precipitation will continue spreading north-northeastward with time, across eastern Iowa and northwestern Illinois, with ice accumulations likely. ..Goss.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40859281 42109289 43389206 43369069 42498949 41588893 40229008 40169187 40859281 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NEARBY COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe, low-topped thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours across the Bay Area and nearby coastal California. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS features two primary troughs promoting convective potential this period, from east to west: 1. A strong shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Plains from west-central NE to western OK, with a 500-mb low apparent near HYS. The low is expected to move eastward along I-70 into near COU by 00Z, with trough northward to southern IA and southward to southern AR. By the end of the period, the low should reach northeastern IL around IKK, along a trough aligned roughly from MKE-BNA. 2. A synoptic-scale trough from the Gulf of Alaska to offshore from the CA Coast, including a small cyclone off western WA and a basal shortwave now approaching coastal central/northern CA. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over KS between ICT-FRI, with cold front southwestward across southwestern OK and portions of west-central/southwest TX. By 00Z, the low should become nearly stacked under the 500-mb low over north-central MO, with cold front extending over northwestern AR, and northeast TX, to near AUS and between DRT-LRD. Substantial weakening of the front should be underway by then, especially south of the Ozarks, with surface winds less than 10 kt on both sides of the front over east and south TX. The TX portion of the front should nearly dissipate overnight. ...Bay Area and vicinity... Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail near severe limits are possible this morning near the coast, in about a 150-nm-long corridor centered just south of SFO. A low-level frontal band precedes the basal shortwave trough over CA, with associated precip forecast to continue spreading obliquely eastward/southeastward down the Sierra and -- to a lesser extent -- over central/southern CA. Behind that, strong cooling aloft -- related to DCVA immediately preceding the mid/upper trough -- is supporting favorable instability through a deep-enough layer for thunderstorms, with areas of 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE apparent over the Pacific marine layer between SFO and the OR border. That plume of buoyancy will expand southeastward past the MRY area over the next few hours, combining with favorable deep shear (40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes) to support slight onshore penetration of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms, before activity weakens in lower inland theta-e. Convection should move over the outlook area through midmorning local time, before the trough passes. ...East to southeast TX... Large-scale ascent preceding the eastern mid/upper trough -- in the form of DCVA over northern parts of the thunder outlook area and a broad plume of low-level WAA/moisture transport -- will continue to support scattered, predominantly elevated thunderstorm potential from the Arklatex to the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Farther south across east TX to near the upper TX Coast, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon. This activity also will be tied mainly to the WAA plume, and related isentropic ascent to LFC. Forecast soundings show potential for inflow-layer parcels to become surface-based amid continuing warming from both advective and diabatic processes. Wind profiles will veer with height, though lower midlevel (roughly 600-700 mb) weaknesses and lack of greater winds even higher in altitude will limit bulk shear, with effective-shear magnitudes generally remaining below 40 kt. Counterbalancing effects precluding unconditional severe threat include rising heights throughout the day, stable layers and other areas of weak lapse rates in midlevels that will keep MLCAPE from getting much greater than 1000 J/kg, and weakening of both frontal and large-scale lift with time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141300Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BAY AREA AND NEARBY COASTAL CALIFORNIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to marginally severe, low-topped thunderstorms are possible for a few more hours across the Bay Area and nearby coastal California. ...Synopsis... A progressive mid/upper-level pattern over the CONUS features two primary troughs promoting convective potential this period, from east to west: 1. A strong shortwave trough was apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the central Plains from west-central NE to western OK, with a 500-mb low apparent near HYS. The low is expected to move eastward along I-70 into near COU by 00Z, with trough northward to southern IA and southward to southern AR. By the end of the period, the low should reach northeastern IL around IKK, along a trough aligned roughly from MKE-BNA. 2. A synoptic-scale trough from the Gulf of Alaska to offshore from the CA Coast, including a small cyclone off western WA and a basal shortwave now approaching coastal central/northern CA. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a low over KS between ICT-FRI, with cold front southwestward across southwestern OK and portions of west-central/southwest TX. By 00Z, the low should become nearly stacked under the 500-mb low over north-central MO, with cold front extending over northwestern AR, and northeast TX, to near AUS and between DRT-LRD. Substantial weakening of the front should be underway by then, especially south of the Ozarks, with surface winds less than 10 kt on both sides of the front over east and south TX. The TX portion of the front should nearly dissipate overnight. ...Bay Area and vicinity... Isolated strong-severe gusts and hail near severe limits are possible this morning near the coast, in about a 150-nm-long corridor centered just south of SFO. A low-level frontal band precedes the basal shortwave trough over CA, with associated precip forecast to continue spreading obliquely eastward/southeastward down the Sierra and -- to a lesser extent -- over central/southern CA. Behind that, strong cooling aloft -- related to DCVA immediately preceding the mid/upper trough -- is supporting favorable instability through a deep-enough layer for thunderstorms, with areas of 200-500 J/kg MLCAPE apparent over the Pacific marine layer between SFO and the OR border. That plume of buoyancy will expand southeastward past the MRY area over the next few hours, combining with favorable deep shear (40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes) to support slight onshore penetration of strong/isolated severe thunderstorms, before activity weakens in lower inland theta-e. Convection should move over the outlook area through midmorning local time, before the trough passes. ...East to southeast TX... Large-scale ascent preceding the eastern mid/upper trough -- in the form of DCVA over northern parts of the thunder outlook area and a broad plume of low-level WAA/moisture transport -- will continue to support scattered, predominantly elevated thunderstorm potential from the Arklatex to the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys. Farther south across east TX to near the upper TX Coast, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible through this afternoon. This activity also will be tied mainly to the WAA plume, and related isentropic ascent to LFC. Forecast soundings show potential for inflow-layer parcels to become surface-based amid continuing warming from both advective and diabatic processes. Wind profiles will veer with height, though lower midlevel (roughly 600-700 mb) weaknesses and lack of greater winds even higher in altitude will limit bulk shear, with effective-shear magnitudes generally remaining below 40 kt. Counterbalancing effects precluding unconditional severe threat include rising heights throughout the day, stable layers and other areas of weak lapse rates in midlevels that will keep MLCAPE from getting much greater than 1000 J/kg, and weakening of both frontal and large-scale lift with time. ..Edwards/Goss.. 12/14/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 171200Z - 221200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper trough over the High Plains vicinity Day 4/Tue morning will deepen and track east to the MS Valley by Day 5/Wed, and to the Atlantic coast by Day 6/Thu. As this occurs, a cold front will move across the south-central and southeast states, pushing offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts by late Day 5/Wed into early Day 6/Thu. While thunderstorm potential will be possible with this system, severe potential appears limited, given weak instability and deep-layer flow oriented parallel to the surface boundary (leading to more anafrontal processes). With the strong front moving well into the Gulf of Mexico, boundary-layer moisture will remain scant heading into the end of the forecast period, and severe-thunderstorm potential is expected to remain low Days 7-8/Fri-Sat. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... As the mid-level trough ejects over the central Rockies and into the Plains early D2/Sunday, a lee low and trailing surface trough will quickly deepen across parts of the High Plains. At the same time, a cold front will approach from the interior West. Aided by strong mid-level westerlies at the base of the trough and downslope pressure gradients, several hours of strong surface winds (20-30 mph) are likely across parts of the central High Plains. These strong winds may briefly overlap with areas of moderately low RH (~30%) across western NE and eastern WY. Farther south into eastern NM and far West TX, lower RH will remain possible with more mild temperatures and diurnal minimums of 20-25%. However, winds here are expected to be slower and more transient, owing to the weaker surface pressure falls and flow aloft. The net result will be a few hours of locally dry and breezy conditions in the lee of the Rockies where fuels are somewhat dry. While there is some risk, fire-weather concerns are not expected to be widespread, given the brief nature of the strong winds and lower RH, as well as the passage of the cold front Sunday evening. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A progressive mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains will rapidly move eastward as shortwave ridging develops over the Rockies and High Plains in its wake. A second mid-level trough farther west will begin to approach later this evening and overnight as increasingly strong westerly flow overspreads the Plains again. The ridging will initially favor weak surface winds and relatively mild temperatures through much of the day before the approaching trough aids in developing a lee cyclone over the central and northern High Plains. The deepening low and strong westerly winds aloft may support downslope flow over parts of the Rockies and High Plains with gusts of 20-30 mph. However, the late arrival of the trough, poorly timed with the diurnal cycle, will favor relatively poor overlap with low RH values. This should limit fire-weather concerns across the CONUS. ..Lyons.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Dec 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to be low on Monday. ...South-Central States... An upper trough over the Plains will shift east across the Midwest and into the Northeast on Monday. The bulk of stronger deep-layer flow and large-scale ascent will be focused across the Mid-MS and OH Valley region. At the surface, a cold front will develop east across the Midwest, while the southwest extent of the boundary drops more south/southeast across parts of the southern Plains and the Lower MS Valley. The front should extend from northern MS into central TX by early Tuesday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the front will maintain upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints over the eastern half of TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS Valley. While this will aid in modest destabilization across portions of southern/central TX toward the ArkLaTex vicinity, vertical shear is expected to be modest (less than 25 kt effective shear magnitudes) and large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north. As a result, severe-thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

MD 2266 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO SOUTHEASTERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 2266 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1141 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Areas affected...parts of north central Missouri into southeastern Iowa Concerning...Freezing rain Valid 140541Z - 140945Z SUMMARY...Rain and embedded thunderstorms forming across western Missouri during the next few hours appear likely to continue developing northeastward and eastward overnight, supporting moderate freezing rain with potential for appreciable icing north-northwest of Kirksville MO through the Ottumwa IA vicinity by 2-4 AM CST. DISCUSSION...Downstream of a notable short wave trough progressing across the central Great Plains, moisture return within a developing area of large-scale ascent, rooted within lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, is contributing to an ongoing gradual increase in precipitation northeast of the middle/lower Missouri Valley into eastern Oklahoma. From east of the Sioux Falls area into southeastern Iowa, this appears focused along a 700 mb baroclinic zone which is forecast to slowly develop northward toward the upper Mississippi Valley overnight. Southward across western Missouri into eastern Oklahoma, this appears generally aligned with better lower-level moisture return along one branch of a strong low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb), which is forecast to slowly shift eastward toward the middle Mississippi Valley through 08-10Z. Models indicate that substantive further warming and moistening along the low-level jet will contribute to sufficient steepening of mid-level lapse rates to support weak CAPE above a slowly modifying, but still cold and stable near surface environment across much of Missouri into Iowa. Based on the latest NAM/Rapid Refresh, among other output, it appears that this may be accompanied by a blossoming band of convection and perhaps embedded weak thunderstorm activity north of Springfield MO through and north of Kirksville by 07-08Z, before continuing to spread northeastward and eastward. North/northwest of Kirksville, northeastward across the Ottumwa vicinity of southeastern Iowa, forecast soundings indicate that a pronounced warm nose will continue to develop above sub-freezing boundary-layer air, which may be maintained (aided initially by evaporative cooling of precipitation) as far south as portions of north central Missouri at least into the 10-11Z time frame. This may allow for appreciable ice accrual as developing convection supports a sustained period of moderate freezing rain, including rates occasionally on the order of 1/4+ inch per hour. ..Kerr.. 12/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX... LAT...LON 40239343 41359317 41749235 41399167 40719191 40289234 40069292 40239343 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the 06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However, convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front, resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary. Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is expected to remain limited on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will shift east into the Plains Sunday night into early Monday. As a result, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly mid/upper flow will envelop the central/southern Plains toward the Mid/Upper MS Valley. At the surface, a deepening low will track east along the international border in the vicinity of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest. A trailing cold front is forecast to move southeast across much of the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest, becoming positioned from central MO southwestward into northwest TX by 12z Monday. Southerly low-level flow ahead of the aforementioned front will allow upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints to spread northward across much of TX into eastern OK, LA, AR and southern MO. Shortwave upper ridging for much of the period prior to 03z will likely preclude thunderstorm activity within the warm conveyor. However, stronger height falls associated with the ejecting trough will overspread the southern Plains (though stronger large-scale ascent will remain focused further north). Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop near the southeastward-advancing cold front in the 06-12z time frame. Favorable, vertically veering wind profiles suggest some thunderstorm organization will be possible. However, convection is expected to mostly remain elevated in nature given cool surface temperatures overnight, resulting in little surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. Furthermore, deep-layer flow will remain parallel to the front, resulting in convection tracking to the cool side of the boundary. Given cool temperatures aloft and midlevel lapse rates approaching 7 C/km in a moderately sheared environment, some small hail could accompany the strongest updrafts across eastern OK into parts of AR and southern MO. However, overall severe potential appears low/too conditional to include probabilities at this time given stronger large-scale ascent focused further north of better low-level moisture, and expectation for limited surface-based instability. ..Leitman.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE BAY AREA TO CENTRAL COAST OF CA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe gusts may accompany low-topped thunderstorms this morning across parts of the Bay Area and Central Coast of California. ...Bay Area to Central Coast of CA... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within the basal portion of a northeast Pacific upper trough, will rapidly approach the Bay Area this morning. Very strong forcing for ascent will accompany this wave, supporting low-topped thunderstorms, as evidenced by ongoing CG lightning around 400-500 miles off the coast. While the time of day (12-16Z) will be unfavorable, a narrow corridor of meager surface-based instability should approach the coast. This should overlap the western portion of a 55-65 kt low-level jet. Despite the low-topped nature of thunderstorms, linear clusters within the low-level warm conveyor and near the attendant surface low will be capable of producing strong to isolated severe gusts. This threat should diminish by late morning as the shortwave trough rapidly progresses inland with negligible surface-based instability. ...East-Southeast TX... As a compact shortwave trough progresses from the central Great Plains eastward into the Midwest, its attendant minor surface wave will undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday. The accompanying cold front trailing to its south-southwest should stall and weaken in parts of northeast to central TX. The low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front will foster elevated thunderstorms, mainly this morning that linger into the afternoon. Some surface-based development is possible along the trailing portion into east-southeast TX should adequate boundary-layer heating of low to mid 60s surface dew points occur. But with weakening large-scale ascent/deep-layer shear and muted mid-level lapse rates, severe potential appears negligible. ..Grams/Lyons.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1147 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE BAY AREA TO CENTRAL COAST OF CA... ...SUMMARY... Strong to isolated severe gusts may accompany low-topped thunderstorms this morning across parts of the Bay Area and Central Coast of California. ...Bay Area to Central Coast of CA... A vigorous shortwave impulse, embedded within the basal portion of a northeast Pacific upper trough, will rapidly approach the Bay Area this morning. Very strong forcing for ascent will accompany this wave, supporting low-topped thunderstorms, as evidenced by ongoing CG lightning around 400-500 miles off the coast. While the time of day (12-16Z) will be unfavorable, a narrow corridor of meager surface-based instability should approach the coast. This should overlap the western portion of a 55-65 kt low-level jet. Despite the low-topped nature of thunderstorms, linear clusters within the low-level warm conveyor and near the attendant surface low will be capable of producing strong to isolated severe gusts. This threat should diminish by late morning as the shortwave trough rapidly progresses inland with negligible surface-based instability. ...East-Southeast TX... As a compact shortwave trough progresses from the central Great Plains eastward into the Midwest, its attendant minor surface wave will undergo cyclolysis by early Sunday. The accompanying cold front trailing to its south-southwest should stall and weaken in parts of northeast to central TX. The low-level warm conveyor ahead of the front will foster elevated thunderstorms, mainly this morning that linger into the afternoon. Some surface-based development is possible along the trailing portion into east-southeast TX should adequate boundary-layer heating of low to mid 60s surface dew points occur. But with weakening large-scale ascent/deep-layer shear and muted mid-level lapse rates, severe potential appears negligible. ..Grams/Lyons.. 12/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected tonight. ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex... A compact shortwave trough will gradually shift east across the central Great Plains tonight. While its associated surface reflection in the Raton Mesa vicinity will remain weak as it similarly tracks near the KS/OK border, low-level mass response will strengthen this evening. This will yield an abrupt increase in elevated convection overnight. Steep mid-level lapse rates will largely be confined from the Red River northward, where MUCAPE will remain weak along the periphery of the modified moisture return. 60s surface dew points will remain confined across parts of south into central TX, where mid-level lapse rates will be more muted. Still, with a relatively broad swath of greater than 50-kt 500-mb winds from north TX into eastern KS and the Ozarks, small hail may occur in the deepest updrafts. ...Northern CA... An upper trough will approach the West Coast late tonight into early morning. Associated low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of a weak surface front, with a broad area of precipitation. Gradual cooling of mid-level temperatures will occur as the upper trough approaches, which may support meager MUCAPE across parts of northern CA during the 09-12Z period. Sporadic lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection along/near the front, with overall thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent. ..Grams.. 12/14/2024 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 13 22:27:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 13 22:27:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z The upper-level pattern is expected to remain progressive through early next week. Some flow amplification appears probable by Tuesday into Wednesday. Thereafter, model guidance suggests a broad trough in the East with a amplified ridge in the West. At the surface, cold air will move into most areas east of the Divide with each successive trough moving across the CONUS. Areas of the Southwest and southern High Plains will likely remain dry during the extended period. Despite relatively dry fuels in these areas, winds are expected to remain modest. Ensemble guidance consequently shows low probabilities for critical fire weather. As the upper-level ridge amplifies in the West, surface high pressure is expected to build into the Great Basin, peaking on Wednesday morning. This pattern would favor offshore winds across the typically wind-prone areas of southern California. Given the large scale features involved, in addition to a consistent signal in ensemble guidance, 40% probabilities were added for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when the offshore pressure gradient is expected to be maximized. At this point in time, upper-level wind support is expected to be weak. ..Wendt.. 12/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 PM CST Fri Dec 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast reasoning (see below) remains the same, and only minor changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Dec 13 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex... A compact shortwave trough over the Great Basin this morning will move eastward across the southern/central Plains through tonight while gradually amplifying. Related low-level mass response will encourage the northward advance of modified Gulf moisture across parts of the southern/central Plains ahead of a weak surface low and cold front forecast to track from the central High Plains to eastern KS/OK by early Saturday morning. Given the limited/shallow nature of the low-level moisture return, current expectations are for any convection that develops late tonight in the warm advection regime to remain elevated. MUCAPE is generally forecast to remain less than 1000 J/kg, which should tend to limit the prospect for large hail with these elevated thunderstorms. Even so, cold mid-level temperatures associated with the ejecting shortwave trough and sufficient shear through the cloud-bearing layer may support some risk for small hail with the strongest cores. This activity is expected to spread eastward from the southern/central Plains into the Ozarks/ArkLaTex vicinity through the end of the period. ...Northern California... An upper trough will approach the West Coast late tonight into early Saturday morning. Associated low-level warm/moist advection will occur ahead of a weak surface front, with a broad area of precipitation forecast across parts of northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. Gradual cooling of mid-level temperatures will occur as the upper trough approaches, which may support meager MUCAPE across parts of northern CA for the last few hours of the period (early Saturday morning). Isolated lightning flashes may occur with low-topped convection along/near the front, with overall thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent. Read more