SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z A progressive, quasi-zonal, upper-level flow pattern is expected through the remainder of this week across the CONUS. By the weekend, another upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast and then shift into the central U.S. by early/mid next week. Cooler weather and precipitation are expected for many areas over the coming week. The overall potential for critical fire weather appears relatively low through the extended period. As a cold front moves through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic on Friday, dry/windy post-frontal conditions may lead to an increase in fire danger. Though fuels remain dry in many locations, there is enough potential for precipitation to preclude highlights. The upper-level and surface patterns this Sunday/Monday would also support downslope/offshore winds in northern and southern California. However, potential for cooler temperatures and precipitation are again too high for any substantial fire concern along with the late-week upper-level trough. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...20z Update... Minor changes were made to remove portions of the thunder chances across the western US to reflect recent trends in radar/satellite. Otherwise, the outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong/severe storms, capable of producing gusty/damaging winds and possibly a tornado, are expected Thursday morning and afternoon within a narrow zone extending from the Midwest to East Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper short-wave trough is forecast to cross the Upper Mississippi Valley and then Upper Great Lakes region Thursday, before continuing across Ontario and eventually Quebec and the Lower Great Lakes Thursday night. Meanwhile farther west, an upper low will gradually move onshore across the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Midwest, and eventually New England and the Northeast, while sagging more slowly southward across the Tennessee and Lower Mississippi Valleys through Friday morning. ...Lower Michigan southwestward across parts of East Texas... A frontal band of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to extend from the Lake Michigan/Lower Michigan vicinity southwestward to eastern Texas at the start of the period, accompanied by limited/local risk for gusty winds. As the front advances, instability should remain quite limited -- particularly from the Ohio Valley northward. Still, tall/thin CAPE profiles combined with favorably strong/veering flow with height suggest local/limited risk for strong wind gusts -- and possibly a tornado -- as far north as the Lower Michigan vicinity. As such, an expansion of Level 1/MRGL risk is being included for this forecast cycle. Potential for stronger storms will remain largely confined to the daytime hours, though may linger locally into the evening over southern potions of the risk area (the Tennessee area southward). ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0135 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Potential for critical fire weather remains within parts of the eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. While high-resolution ensemble guidance does show critical conditions during the afternoon, these conditions generally translate eastward with time leaving overall duration in doubt. Further, continued moisture flux into the region (and better overnight RH recovery) increases uncertainty in fine fuel dryness. Locally critical conditions are probable, but confidence in sustained critical conditions is only low to medium. Trends will continue to be monitored. See the previous discussion for more details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail, damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected on Wednesday across central portions of the country -- particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area southward to North Texas. ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially aligned across the interior West will progress east-northeastward out of the Rockies and into the Plains during the afternoon and evening, and then will continue onward toward/into the Mid- and Upper-Mississippi Valley area overnight. At the surface, a cold front will initially extend northeast-to-southwest across the central U.S. -- from the Lake Superior vicinity southwestward to southeastern New Mexico and Far West Texas. This front will make only gradual eastward progress initially, as a frontal wave develops in the southeastern Kansas vicinity and then shifts quickly northeastward along the baroclinic zone through the day -- to a position near Topeka around sunset. From there, as the low deepens and progresses toward Wisconsin, the trailing cold front will begin to surge more quickly eastward/southeastward, and should extend across central Illinois, southeastern Missouri, Arkansas, to central Texas by Thursday morning. ...Mid-Mississippi/Mid-Missouri Valleys across northeastern Texas... As the advancing upper system shifts out of the Rockies and across the High Plains through the day, large-scale ascent -- focused near the cold front -- will gradually increase. Ahead of the front, a moist (60s dewpoints) airmass will be in place along/ahead of the front across the central/southern Plains, and should spread northward across Iowa and into Wisconsin through the day. This, combined with daytime heating and modestly steep lapse rates aloft, will allow gradual/steady destabilization to occur through the morning and afternoon hours. Initial storm development is forecast by mid to late morning, in the eastern Nebraska/northeastern Kansas/western Iowa vicinity, and then expanding northeastward toward the upper Mississippi Valley, and southward across eastern Kansas, through the afternoon. In addition to the amply unstable environment that will be evolving (mixed-layer CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range), increasingly favorable shear will also evolve with time. This will occur as mid-level southwesterly flow associated with the advancing upper system spreads eastward across the central Plains, atop low-level southerly flow near/ahead of the forecast track of the frontal low. The resulting wind field -- veering favorably and increasing in speed with height through the lowest half of the troposphere -- will support supercells. It appears that convection should remain at least somewhat cellular through the daylight hours from the Topeka/Kansas City vicinity southward, which would correspond with risk for a few tornadoes, along with large hail and damaging wind potential. Farther to the northeast, across Iowa and into Wisconsin, risk should remain lower, given lesser instability. Overall, storms should gradually grow upscale linearly, and will shift eastward with time across Iowa and into Missouri -- and eventually Illinois overnight, accompanied by at least limited severe risk into the overnight hours. Farther south into Oklahoma and Texas, storm development should occur later, likely not until after dark. Still, with the thermodynamic and kinematic environment favoring rotating storms, the all-hazards severe risk should expand southward across Oklahoma and into northern and possibly central Texas. With time, storms should grow upscale linearly across this region as well, after the initial/primarily cellular mode. Like areas farther north, at least some severe risk should continue overnight, spreading eastward into Arkansas and East Texas with time. ..Goss.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The elevated area was trimmed in parts of southern Nebraska based on the observed frontal position. As the surface low deepens, locally elevated conditions may occur in these areas, but the duration should be quite brief. Elsewhere, the forecast remains on track. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Wendt.. 10/29/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight into early Wednesday morning across parts of the southern/central Plains. A conditional threat for isolated hail and/or gusty winds will exist if thunderstorms can form before the end of the period. ...Southern/Central Plains... A pronounced upper trough over the western states will progress slowly eastward across the Great Basin and Rockies through the period. With cold temperatures at mid/upper levels and steep lapse rates aloft supporting weak MUCAPE, isolated thunderstorms will remain possible across parts of UT/CO/WY today. A belt of strong mid/upper-level southwesterly flow will extend from the Southwest into the central Plains and Upper Midwest through tonight. Large-scale ascent preceding the upper trough, along with a low-amplitude shortwave trough ejecting over the central/northern Plains, will encourage surface low consolidation over the central High Plains by early evening. This low is forecast to develop generally northeastward along a cold front and towards the Upper Midwest through early Wednesday morning. A strong southerly low-level jet will continue to encourage modified Gulf moisture return across the southern/central Plains, along/east of a developing dryline across the southern High Plains, and south of the cold front. Given limited large-scale ascent/mid-level height falls forecast over the warm sector and a low-level cap remaining in place, the potential for thunderstorms through much of today and tonight appears generally low across the southern/central Plains. But, non-convection-allowing guidance (GFS/ECMWF) does show some convective QPF signal late in the period (30/09-12Z) along/near the cold front. If thunderstorms can initiate and be sustained, then the forecast combination of adequate MUCAPE and strong deep-layer shear would conditionally support a threat for isolated hail and perhaps strong/gusty winds early Wednesday morning from parts of western OK into central KS and southeast NE, focused near the front. Regardless, confidence is higher that the greater severe potential will occur in the Day 2/Wednesday time frame (after 30/12Z). ..Gleason/Mosier.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development may occur late tonight from the Upper Mississippi Valley south-southwestward across the central and southern Plains, with some potential for storms to produce severe hail and/or wind. ...Central/Southern Plains... A prominent mid/upper-level trough centered over the Great Basin and Southwest Deserts will continue generally eastward toward the central/southern Rockies through late tonight. Preceding this upper trough will be a nocturnally maximized strong southwesterly low-level jet, with a strengthening lee trough and increasing warm-sector low-level moisture in advance of a cold front (and southern Plains surface trough/dryline), that will generally extend by late tonight from the Upper Midwest southwestward across Nebraska/Kansas into the southern High Plains. Given limited initial height falls and modest-quality autumnal low-level moisture, it is likely that a mid-level cap generally based around 800 mb will persist regionally through the peak heating cycle, with increasing prospects for deepening convection focused in the overnight and early morning hours of Wednesday. This could start across central Nebraska/northern Kansas near the cold front as early as late evening or early in the overnight, with a subsequent southward expansion across Kansas into western Oklahoma and possibly the far eastern Texas Panhandle through the predawn hours, where a conditional potential for near-surface-based storms may exist coincident with roughly 60-63F surface dewpoints. Given the strength of the wind field and increasing moisture/modest buoyancy regionally, organized thunderstorms are possible with some localized potential for severe hail and wind late tonight. ..Guyer/Leitman.. 10/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... An upper-level trough is forecast to dig south-southeastward into California on Friday, as southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains. On Saturday, an upper-level low is forecast to close off over southern California. The southwesterly flow pattern will be favorable for moisture advection in the southern Plains over the weekend. Surface dewpoints are forecast to return into the 60s F across much of the southern Plains, where scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday. The latest model forecasts for this period suggest that MLCAPE will peak each afternoon in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear remaining around 30 knots. This, combined with a lack of large-scale ascent, is expected to keep any severe threat marginal across the region. Strong wind gusts and hail should be the primary threats. The upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward towards southwestern Arizona on Sunday, as the exit region of a mid-level jet overspreads the southern High Plains. Weak destabilization and moderate deep-layer shear associated with the jet should support an isolated severe threat across parts of west Texas Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday and Tuesday, the mid-level jet is forecast to move across the southern and central Plains over a weakly unstable airmass. Thunderstorm development is expected each day from parts of central and north Texas northward into Kansas. Although a severe threat will be possible each afternoon, weak instability is expected to keep any severe potential relatively isolated. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail, will be possible on Thursday across parts of the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. ...Lower to Mid Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough is forecast to move through the Upper Midwest and Ozarks on Thursday, as a cold front advances southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, enabling the development of weak instability as surface temperatures warm up during the day. Increasing instability and low-level convergence along the front will result in scattered thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon. Low to mid-level flow will weaken across the lower to mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as the upper-level trough moves further away. This, combined with weak instability and poor low-level lapse rates will minimize any severe threat that develops. In areas that heat up the most, a marginal severe threat will be possible. The stronger cells could be associated with isolated severe wind gusts and hail. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0206 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... An upper trough will begin to eject over the central Plains Wednesday as strong flow aloft linger over the southern Rockies. A lee low over southeastern CO will deepen slightly before moving northeast along a cold front across KS and OK. Dry and breezy conditions are likely over parts of TX and western OK, as well as the Midwest and Great Lakes. Elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions are possible. ...Southern Plains... Downslope winds are again expected to be strong across parts of the southern Plains Wednesday. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible behind a lee trough/dryline across western OK and the TX Panhandle. With RH values of 15-20% widespread elevated to near-critical conditions are possible over parts of the southern High Plains. Sustained critical conditions are also possible, mainly over the eastern TX Panhandle, but current model guidance suggests these may be brief. Thus, critical highlights could be needed in future updates if model consensus shows longer duration surface winds greater than 25 mph. ...Midwest and Great Lakes... A second day of dry and breezy conditions could support locally elevated fire-weather concerns across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes Wednesday. Southerly winds of 15-20 mph are possible ahead of the surface low and cold front. East and north of the deeper surface moisture, RH values should be below 35%. While not overly dry, and likely modulated by mid and high-level clouds, RH values should be dry enough to support some threat for fire danger given the gusty winds and extremely dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Ahead of a deepening upper trough over the western US, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Rockies and adjacent High Plains. A lee low and trailing surface trough will encourage strong downslope winds of 20-30 mph across eastern CO/NM and parts of western KS, TX and OK. Farther east, strong southerly surface winds and dry conditions will be in place over parts of the Midwest. Widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...High Plains... As the upper trough approaches from the west, mid-level flow will continue to intensify over the southern Rockies and High Plains. The strong lee low over eastern CO will continue to deepen and shift eastward with strong southwesterly surface winds across the warm sector. Dry downslope winds of 25-35 mph and RH values below 20% will support several hours of widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions. The greatest overlap of critical meteorological conditions and receptive fuels appears to be across parts of eastern CO and far western KS. However, given the strength of the low-level wind fields and low humidity, critical conditions may occur as far south as parts of the TX/OK Panhandles for a few hours. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions may also occur across parts of central/northern NM closer to the upper low. Strong flow aloft will bolster surface winds to around 15-20 MPH with low RH. While fuels are somewhat mixed here, at least a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before the cold front passes. ...Midwest... Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible in parts of the Midwest ahead of the deepening surface low over the Plains. Models show a drier pocket of air moving over parts of central IL and IN by this afternoon. Fuels are near record dry and winds will be strong with southerly gusts of 15-20 mph. Though drier than normal, low-level humidity is only expected to be around 30%. Uncertainty remains quite large due to potential cloud cover and the marginal RH values, but a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible given expected strong winds and dry fuels. ..Lyons.. 10/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Tue Oct 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND WESTERN OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, are expected on Wednesday across the southern and central Plains extending eastward into the lower to mid Mississippi Valley and Ozarks. ...Southern and Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley/Ozarks... An upper-level trough will move across the Desert Southwest on Wednesday, as a fetch of southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the Great Plains and mid to upper Mississippi Valley. The trough is forecast to reach the southern High Plains by late Wednesday afternoon as an associated mid-level jet translates northeastward into the central Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance southeastward across the central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley on Wednesday. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the 60s F, with weak instability developing by afternoon over much of the pre-frontal airmass. Convective initiation is expected to occur early in the period across the central Plains extending northeastward into the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat will be likely as cells increase in coverage during the late morning and early afternoon. MCS development is expected to take place by afternoon, with a relatively large convective cluster or line gradually moving eastward across eastern and southern Kansas extending southward into Oklahoma. Strong low-level flow, large-scale ascent associated with the upper-level trough, rich low-level moisture and moderate deep-layer shear will be favorable for a severe threat Wednesday afternoon and evening. The strongest instability is forecast to develop across southern Kansas and northwest Oklahoma by Wednesday afternoon. In this area, NAM forecast soundings increase MLCAPE to around 1500 J/kg by 21Z, with 0-3 km lapse rates peaking in the 7 to 7.5 C/km range. 0-6 km shear is forecast to be between 50 and 60 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity peaking in the 200 to 300 m2/s2 range. This environment appears likely to support supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. An isolated tornado threat will also be possible with rotating storms that remain discrete. As the MCS increases in size during the afternoon, a mixed mode is expected with supercells and organized multicells. Some models, like the ECMWF, suggest the convection will line out in the central Plains. This would favor a wind-damage threat along the leading edge of the line. The most favorable threat for severe storms would be with rotating storms embedded in the line, and with discrete cells ahead of the line. Further south into Oklahoma, cells are forecast to be primarily discrete suggesting that a severe threat with large hail and severe wind gusts will be likely. A tornado threat could also develop southward into Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat should eventually impact parts of north Texas. A severe threat is expected to persist into the late evening, and perhaps into the early overnight period, as the MCS moves through the lower Missouri Valley and Ozarks. ..Broyles.. 10/29/2024 Read more