Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late this week, an elongated upper trough from the Southeast into the Northeast will evolve into a cutoff low centered roughly on the Gulf Coast with stronger cyclonic flow remaining in the Northeast. An upper-level ridge will continue to build in the West and Plains and shift eastward into early next week. With the weak upper low near the Gulf, this will spur repeated days of convection across part of the Southeast and Florida. It is possible low-end severe potential will exist with some of this activity until low/mid-level lapse rates become poor. However, substantive severe threats are not expected. With the ridge building over the cutoff low, it will be slow to move eastward. Model guidance suggests that this feature will reach the East Coast around the middle of next week. At the same time, a strong upper trough is expected to move into the West. Moisture return into the Plains will begin as the trough moves eastward. That said, at least a few days worth of offshore flow in the western Gulf will likely limit the initial quality of that moisture return. The potential for severe weather with the incoming western trough remains uncertain at this point in time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late this week, an elongated upper trough from the Southeast into the Northeast will evolve into a cutoff low centered roughly on the Gulf Coast with stronger cyclonic flow remaining in the Northeast. An upper-level ridge will continue to build in the West and Plains and shift eastward into early next week. With the weak upper low near the Gulf, this will spur repeated days of convection across part of the Southeast and Florida. It is possible low-end severe potential will exist with some of this activity until low/mid-level lapse rates become poor. However, substantive severe threats are not expected. With the ridge building over the cutoff low, it will be slow to move eastward. Model guidance suggests that this feature will reach the East Coast around the middle of next week. At the same time, a strong upper trough is expected to move into the West. Moisture return into the Plains will begin as the trough moves eastward. That said, at least a few days worth of offshore flow in the western Gulf will likely limit the initial quality of that moisture return. The potential for severe weather with the incoming western trough remains uncertain at this point in time. Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW FST TO 40 SE MAF TO 20 ENE MAF TO 40 N MAF TO 40 SW LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-105-137-173-235-265-267-271-371-383-385-413-431-435-443- 451-463-465-060940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CROCKETT EDWARDS GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY PECOS REAGAN REAL SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW FST TO 40 SE MAF TO 20 ENE MAF TO 40 N MAF TO 40 SW LBB. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0710 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-105-137-173-235-265-267-271-371-383-385-413-431-435-443- 451-463-465-060940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA CROCKETT EDWARDS GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY PECOS REAGAN REAL SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UVALDE VAL VERDE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 229 TORNADO NM TX 060155Z - 060900Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 229 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 855 PM CDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far Southeast New Mexico West into Southwest and South-Central Texas * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 855 PM until 400 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms are forecast to continue across the Permian Basin this evening. Additional severe thunderstorms are forecast farther southeast into the Pecos Valley and Edwards Plateau regions. It is here that scattered supercells are forecast to evolve by late evening and persist into the overnight. Moist low levels with strengthening flow fields will support supercells potentially capable of a couple of tornadoes, large to very large hail, and severe gusts. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles west southwest of Hobbs NM to 50 miles south southeast of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227...WW 228... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Smith Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0230 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0220 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for organized severe weather is uncertain on Thursday, though stronger storms may occur in parts of the Southeast and the eastern Florida coast. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough will continue to become broad and elongated in the Midwest/East on Thursday. As this occurs, a strong belt of mid-level winds will be maintained along the Gulf Coast region into the Southeast and North Florida. The surface pattern will remain somewhat disorganized, but a weak cold front/surface trough is anticipated from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the southern Mid-Atlantic region. Convection is likely along the coast into the northern Gulf on a remnant boundary. ...Florida... Convection is likely to form on the sea breeze boundary in east-central into North Florida. Temperatures aloft will be around -11 C at 500 mb. With the belt of stronger mid-level winds in the region, it is possible a few stronger storms could produce hail or strong winds. The primary uncertainty is the evolution of the upper-level trough. The NAM is currently the only guidance showing sufficient shear for organized storms. Other guidance has the stronger winds lagging to the west. ...Northern Portions of Mississippi/Alabama... Some boundary-layer destabilization is possible along the weak surface trough during the afternoon. Confidence in strong enough wind shear for organized convection is medium to high, but potential for cloud cover from isolated early day activity along the trough and activity near the Gulf coast increases uncertainty in adequate buoyancy. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1252 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible from the South Texas into the Upper Texas Coast on Wednesday. Large hail and strong to severe winds are the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A mid-level shortwave trough will move into the Mid-South and weaken on Wednesday. The upper-level low will remain within parts of the central/southern Plains. While low-level moisture will remain high across parts of Texas, a nebulous surface pattern will limit the potential for focused/organized severe weather. A stalled surface boundary/outflow will be the primary zone of concern during the afternoon. ...South Texas into Upper Texas Coast... A stalled boundary is expected from South Texas northeastward towards the Sabine Valley. Convergence along this boundary will be weak and mid-level height tendencies will be neutral, but strong surface heating and perhaps subtle mid-level ascent could promote isolated storms along this boundary. Strong buoyancy and over 50 kts of effective shear will support a risk for large hail and strong to severe winds. Discrete storms are possible initially, but shear mostly parallel to the surface boundary suggests storm interactions would be probable. This, along with rather modest mid-level lapse rates should keep the potential for very-large hail low. ...Oklahoma... With the upper-level low moving into Oklahoma and Kansas by the afternoon. Cold temperatures aloft will support some convective development within a very weak surface reflection/convergence beneath the upper low. Dewpoints will not be overly high for this time of year (mid/upper 50s F). While models have generally trended a bit stronger with the feature, the greatest mid-level winds will be displaced farther to the south from where the highest confidence in convective development is (northern into perhaps parts of central Oklahoma). There will be a zone in south-central into southeast Oklahoma that could support a stronger storm, but this threat is rather conditional. ...Central into East Texas... East of the I-35 corridor, upper mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are possible in the wake of convection Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Given the weakening upper-level system, the surface pattern will be quite diffuse/disorganized. Sufficient shear and buoyancy will exist for strong to severe storms, but storm development is highly uncertain/conditional. Mid-level ascent will be weak as height tendencies will be neutral. Other than a mesoscale zone of convergence or perhaps an outflow boundary from convection near the Gulf Coast, low-level forcing will also be weak. ..Wendt.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Some storms will be capable of producing severe gusts, large to very large hail, and tornadoes. Strong tornadoes will be possible. Isolated strong to severe storms with hail and marginally severe gusts may also occur in the northern Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... At mid-levels, a low will move into the southern Rockies today, as an associated 60 to 70 knot jet streak translates northeastward across the southern Plains. Within the exit region of the jet, scattered thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing in west Texas at the start of the period, along the western edge of a moist airmass. The moist airmass will be located over much of the eastern half of Texas extending eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop around midday from north-central Texas into southern Oklahoma, in association with warm advection. A severe threat is expected to develop with this convection, and should increase during the afternoon. In areas that heat up, supercells with large hail and severe gusts will be possible. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense supercell updrafts, mainly in northwest and central Texas where mid-level lapse rates are forecast to be steep. Further to the southeast, the airmass is likely to remain undisturbed through midday. A warm front will move slowly northward across central and southeast Texas. From this front southward, surface dewpoints will likely be from the upper 60s to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, strong instability is forecast to develop. The models are in reasonably good agreement that MLCAPE will peak between 3000 and 4000 J/kg during the afternoon. In addition, the mid-level jet will move into the southern Plains, creating strong deep-layer shear favorable for supercells. In response, a 40 to 50 knot low-level jet is forecast to develop across southeast Texas. Forecast soundings to the northwest of the Houston area increase 0-3 km storm-relative helicity into the 350 to 400 m2/s2 range. This shear environment will be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A few strong tornadoes will be possible within parts of the airmass that heat up the most and remain undisturbed into the early afternoon. MCS development appears likely during the afternoon across east Texas. Rotating storms within the MCS will be capable of large hail and severe gusts. This threat should spread eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level low will move northeastward across the Ohio Valley today, as a front advances eastward through the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. An axis of low-level moisture will be located ahead of the front with surface dewpoints in the 50s F. As surface temperatures heat up during the day, weak instability is forecast to develop along and near this moist axis. Low-level convergence and large-scale ascent associated with the mid-level system will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. In addition to the weak instability, RAP forecast soundings have moderate deep-layer shear in the Mid-Atlantic with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 8 C/km. This could support a marginal wind-damage threat during the afternoon, with the threat eventually transitioning eastward into the Hudson River Valley. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0709 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 229... FOR PARTS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0709 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM Concerning...Tornado Watch 229... Valid 060430Z - 060630Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 229 continues. SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorm initiation now appears underway across the Pecos Valley into Del Rio vicinity. A few cells may undergo considerable further intensification accompanied by increasing potential to produce very large hail and perhaps a strong tornado or two. DISCUSSION...Increasing and intensifying discrete thunderstorm development now appears underway across the Pecos Valley. This is focused within modestly deep surface troughing east-southeast of a surface low, now centered west-northwest of Fort Stockton, where boundary-layer moisture characterized by lower 60s surface dew points has spread as far northwest as the I-20 corridor to the southwest of Midland/Odessa. This is contributing to mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. With further weakening of inhibition, strengthening convection rooted within this environment will pose the greatest potential to undergo rapid intensification, supported by both strong deep-layer shear and now enlarged, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs along a southeasterly low-level jet (40-50 kt around 850 mb). This environment appears potentially conducive to a couple of intense supercells posing a risk for very large hail and perhaps a strong tornado or two. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 31890394 32020289 30800113 30090066 29860222 30280270 30760382 31330385 31890394 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 229 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0709 ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...MAF...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 229 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NMC015-025-060640- NM . NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDDY LEA TXC003-019-103-105-135-137-165-173-235-265-267-271-301-317-329- 371-383-385-389-413-431-435-443-451-461-463-465-475-495- 060640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDREWS BANDERA CRANE CROCKETT ECTOR EDWARDS GAINES GLASSCOCK IRION KERR KIMBLE KINNEY LOVING MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS REAGAN REAL REEVES SCHLEICHER STERLING SUTTON TERRELL TOM GREEN UPTON UVALDE VAL VERDE Read more

MD 0708 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 227... FOR PARTS OF SWRN TX AND ADJACENT SERN NM
Mesoscale Discussion 0708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0827 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn TX and adjacent sern NM Concerning...Tornado Watch 227... Valid 060127Z - 060330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 227 continues. SUMMARY...Potential for the development of at least a couple of intense supercells posing a risk for large hail and tornadoes is likely to increase through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. A new tornado watch will be needed. DISCUSSION...Although attempts at deep convective development persist along the dryline, and east of the dryline to the northwest of Del Rio, relatively warm/dry air in the lower/mid-troposphere has still contributed to at least some suppression. The strong westerly shear, and continued westward retreat of the dryline toward the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, also have likely inhibited development. However, it does appear that thunderstorm initiation may be increasingly underway near the intersection of the dryline and stalled surface front near Wink TX. And potential for intensifying thunderstorm development is likely to increase considerably further across the Pecos Valley toward the Del Rio TX vicinity through mid to late evening. Low-level moisture characterized by lower to mid 60s surface dew points is advecting along/south of the Edwards Plateau, toward the Pecos Valley, as a short wave trough pivots northeastward toward the region. As mid-level height falls spread across the region coincident with the low-level moistening and destabilization, which may included CAPE increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg, the development of at least a couple of intense supercells appears increasingly likely through 03-06Z. ..Kerr.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 32450356 31700124 31160054 29930102 30010221 30510291 31510351 32450356 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0229 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0229 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE NHK TO 15 WNW DCA TO 40 WSW MRB. ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-060240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043- 510-060240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0228 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE NHK TO 15 WNW DCA TO 40 WSW MRB. ..MOORE..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 228 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-060240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-011-013-019-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-041-043- 510-060240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CAROLINE CARROLL DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD KENT MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES QUEEN ANNE'S TALBOT WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 228 SEVERE TSTM DC MD PA VA WV CW 052200Z - 060400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 228 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 600 PM EDT Mon May 5 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland Southern Pennsylvania Northern and Eastern Virginia Eastern Panhandle West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Monday night from 600 PM until Midnight EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered linear clusters of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely develop and move northward into the Watch area this evening. A few of the stronger cellular storms will pose a risk for large hail (1 to 1.5 inches in diameter). A transient supercell or two is possible in addition to a couple of line segments. Strong to severe gusts capable of wind damage will be the primary hazard with these storms, but a brief tornado is possible mainly early this evening with this activity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Hagerstown MD to 25 miles southwest of Patuxent River MD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 223...WW 224...WW 225...WW 226...WW 227... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 400. Mean storm motion vector 19030. ...Smith Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0801 PM CDT Mon May 05 2025 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms, potentially with very large hail and wind gusts exceeding 70 mph, are expected this evening into tonight across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated severe storms will also be possible in parts of the Mid Atlantic, central Appalachians, Dakotas and Florida. ...Southern High Plains... According to water vapor imagery, a mid-level low is located over the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the low, southwesterly divergent flow is present over the southern High Plains. Multiple low-amplitude shortwave troughs appear to be moving through the flow. One is analyzed from southeast New Mexico into West Texas. Large-scale ascent ahead of this feature is likely supporting scattered thunderstorm development this evening to the southwest and south of Lubbock. Surface analysis has an inverted trough from west Texas into south-central New Mexico. A quasi-stationary front is analyzed from near the trough southeastward into West Texas. A corridor of low-level moisture is analyzed to the east of the front, where surface dewpoints are in the mid 50s to near 60 F. MLCAPE along the moist axis is estimated to be in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range by the RAP. The storms are developing near the instability axis along a zone of strong low-level convergence. Isolated storms are also developing toward the east away from the boundary, likely in response to warm advection and large-scale ascent. The 00Z sounding at Midland, Texas is located near the instability axis and shows a supercell wind profile, with 0-6 km shear near 75 knots and directional shear in the low-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings in this vicinity have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This environment will continue to be favorable for large hail with the stronger rotating storms. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells and short intense line segments will also be capable of severe wind gusts. A few gusts over 70 mph will be possible. An isolated tornado threat is also expected. The severe threat may increase toward mid to late evening, as the low-level jet ramps up across West Texas. A potential for severe storms will continue into the overnight period, as an MCS develops and organizes. The severe threat could affect parts of south-central Texas later tonight as the MCS moves eastward. ...Mid-Atlantic... Water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the Ohio Valley. South to southwesterly mid-level flow is located over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. At the surface, a quasi-stationary front is analyzed from eastern North Carolina into Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. Near the front, thunderstorms are ongoing with some being strong. Along and near the front, surface dewpoints are in the lower 60s F and MLCAPE is estimated from 500 to 1000 J/kg. RAP forecast soundings near the front this evening show moderate deep-layer shear, which should support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Severe gusts and hail will be the primary threats, with the greatest threat located from western Maryland into eastern Virginia, where the combination of instability and shear is maximized, according to the RAP. ...Dakotas... Surface analysis shows a 1007 mb low over northern South Dakota near a quasi-stationary front. This boundary extends from western South Dakota northeastward across central North Dakota. Near the front, the RAP has MLCAPE from 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near the instability axis. Although shear is marginal for severe storms, lapse are steep. This could be enough for hail and isolated severe gusts over the next couple of hours. ...Florida... Scattered thunderstorms are currently ongoing across the eastern part of the Florida Peninsula. The convection first developed in response to low-level convergence along a sea breeze boundary, and is likely being supported by a subtle shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery and on RAP analysis. Across eastern Florida, the RAP has moderate instability and 0-6 km shear near 35 knots. This environment should support an isolated severe threat over the next hour or two. Steep low-level lapse rates will likely be sufficient for marginally severe gusts with a few of the storms. ..Broyles.. 05/06/2025 Read more