SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A cold front has cleared the Outer Banks and moved offshore. Still, isolated thunderstorms should persist through this afternoon across coastal NC and vicinity, as cool temperatures aloft associated with an eastward-moving upper trough support weak MUCAPE. Small hail may occur with this activity. Farther west, isolated convection appears possible this afternoon through tonight across parts of CA into the Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest, along with coastal OR/WA. This activity will occur in association with an upper trough moving eastward over the western CONUS through the period. Weak instability is expected to limit the overall severe threat, with small hail possible with the strongest cores in the northern part of the Central Valley in CA. ..Gleason/Barnes.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0716 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... The upper-air pattern today will feature a large-scale trough exiting the East Coast as a ridge builds over the central U.S., followed by a trough moving into Interior West from the eastern Pacific. A few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina coast later this afternoon. Otherwise, dry offshore flow over the East Coast and Gulf Coast will lead to tranquil conditions. A few widely spaced, weak thunderstorms are possible over parts of the West. ..Smith/Thompson.. 03/17/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 201200Z - 251200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 to Saturday/Day 6... On Thursday, a trough at mid-levels will move eastward into the Appalachians, as a cold front advances quickly eastward across the Atlantic Coastal states. Isolated strong gusts may occur with convection that develops along or ahead of the front. The threat is expected to be marginal. On Saturday and Sunday, a mid-level trough is forecast to quickly move from the High Plains to the East Coast. A moist airmmass in the Gulf Coast region is forecast to remain largely in place as the system passes to the north. This will likely limit any severe potential. ...Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8... From Saturday night into Sunday, moisture advection is forecast to increase considerably over the southern Plains, as a mid-level trough moves quickly southeastward across the central U.S. Medium-range models suggest that the northern edge of the moist airmass will be located from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley by Sunday afternoon. Thunderstorm development will be possible along this east-to-west corridor during the late afternoon and evening, where the models suggest that moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will be in place. Model spread appears low enough to add a 15 percent area, centered on the Ark-La-Tex for Sunday. On Monday, the trough is forecast to move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front advances quickly toward the Atlantic Seaboard. Thunderstorms with an isolated severe threat will be possible along and near the front during the afternoon, but predictability is low concerning the timing of the front, and its associated trough. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0237 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Extremely critical fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday afternoon across parts of the southern High Plains with widespread critical/elevated conditions extending well into the central Plains. Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts an amplified upper trough off the West Coast. This feature is expected to migrate east over the next 48 hours, ejecting into the southern/central Plains by late Tuesday. As this occurs, robust lee cyclogenesis is anticipated across eastern CO and western KS with minimum surface pressure values falling into the 988 to 992 mb range, which would be well below the 10th percentile of surface pressure climatology for mid-March in the Plains. Such a strong surface low will induce a wide fetch of 20-25 mph winds ahead of and behind an eastward advancing dryline across TX/OK. Moisture return ahead of the low across central TX/OK will limit RH reductions to some degree by late afternoon, but single digit RH minimums are forecast behind the dryline across much of eastern NM and western KS. The arrival of a jet streak associated with a low to mid-level cold front across the southern Rockies along with terrain enhancements off the Caprock and Davis Mountains will support a swath of sustained 30 mph winds (potentially gusting to 40-50 mph) from the Trans Pecos region northeastward to the I-40 corridor in the TX Panhandle. Some forecast uncertainty remains regarding the timing of the low-level front/jet streak, but ensemble probabilities between 50-70% for 30 mph winds coupled with single-digit RH values and critically dry fuels lend enough confidence to introduce an Extremely Critical fire weather risk area. Elsewhere, widespread 20-30 mph winds are expected to the west of the surface flow within the downslope flow regime. Extremely critical conditions may develop across northeast NM into far southeast CO and adjacent portions of KS and OK based on drier/windier solutions, but weaker ensemble support limits confidence in this potential. Across central OK, critical conditions may spread as far east as the I-35 corridor depending on how far east the dryline mixes by peak heating. Similarly, the quality of moisture return into eastern OK and KS will determine the magnitude of the fire weather threat given the expectation for sustained 15-25 mph southerly winds. Forecast adjustments are expected over the next 24 hours as these details come into better focus in short-range guidance. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...LOWER OHIO VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat will be possible on Wednesday from parts of the Upper Midwest into the lower Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and northern Gulf Coast states. ...Upper Midwest/Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys/Northern Gulf Coast States... At the start of the period, scattered elevated storms with hail potential are expected to be ongoing along a warm front from Iowa into southwest Wisconsin. The storms will be located to the north and northeast of a mid-level low moving through the mid Missouri Valley. Ahead of the system, moisture advection associated with a strong low-level jet will take place during the day across the mid Mississippi Valley. By afternoon, the moist axis is forecast to be located from eastern Mississippi northward into western Tennessee and western Kentucky. Strong large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching trough will likely support isolated to scattered thunderstorm development in the mid to late afternoon near the moist axis. These storms will move eastward across the western part of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys extending southward into the northern Gulf Coast states. Forecast soundings Wednesday afternoon have MLCAPE along and near the moist axis only reaching then 250 to 500 J/kg. However, a passing 90 to 100 knot mid-level jet streak will contribute to very strong deep-layer shear across the region. For this reason, an isolated severe threat is expected to develop during the late afternoon. The environment should support hail, isolated severe gusts and perhaps a marginal tornado threat with the strongest of storms. The greatest severe threat could be in the vicinity of northern Mississippi, western Tennessee and far northwest Alabama, where some forecast soundings suggest the environment could support isolated supercell development. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...Synopsis... Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected today across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. More localized fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern to central Plains... Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows upper ridging shifting east towards the central CONUS with strong zonal flow over the northern Rockies. This upper flow regime has been promoting steady lee troughing along the northern and central High Plains over the past 12 hours, with further deepening to around 1000 mb expected through the day as a surface cyclone emerges across the northern Plains and a secondary lee cyclone develops in eastern CO. The anomalously strong surface low (surface pressures are expected to approach the 10th percentile for mid-March in the Plains) juxtaposed with a surface high across the Southeast will induce a robust low-level mass response with widespread 15-25 mph winds from TX to the MO River Valley. 05 UTC observations already show a southerly flow regime becoming established across TX and OK, but a recent frontal intrusion into the Gulf has shunted quality moisture well offshore. Consequently, a dry return flow regime is expected across much of the southern to central Plains. Guidance continues to show high confidence in widespread 20-25 sustained winds across a broad swath of the southern and central Plains. A corridor of 30-40 mph gusts appears likely from central TX through central/northeast OK into eastern KS and western MO. The meager moisture return coupled with diurnal heating and some degree of downslope warming/drying along the High Plains will result in widespread RH reductions into the single digits and low teens across eastern CO/NM and western TX/OK and into the low to mid 20s further north and east. Fuels across much of the central and south-central CONUS are considered supportive of fire spread based on either recent fire activity, high ERC values, or steady drying over the past 24-48 hours over areas that received rainfall late last week. Consequently, fire weather concerns are expected across a broad swath of the Plains. A regional minimum in wind speeds is likely across parts of northeastern CO into adjacent parts of KS and NE in close proximity to the surface low, but periods of breezy conditions and warm/dry conditions will still support some fire concern. Confidence in long-duration critical conditions is highest from eastern NM into western TX and western/central OK. ...Florida... Recent MRMS QPE shows that limited rain has fallen across parts of the central FL peninsula after yesterday's frontal passage. In the wake of this front, dry northerly winds are expected today as a surface high migrates into the Southeast. A combination of dry/breezy conditions (wind speeds between 15-20 mph) should promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions over a region with ERC values between the 70-90th percentile. ..Moore.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA...SOUTHERN IOWA AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail will be possible during the overnight late Tuesday into early Wednesday from eastern Nebraska across much of Iowa. ...Eastern Nebraska/Iowa/Far Northwest Missouri... A trough at mid-levels, will move quickly eastward into the Rockies on Tuesday, and into the High Plains Tuesday night. Near the trough, thunderstorm development will likely take place in the Four Corners region Tuesday afternoon. Ahead of the trough, a surface low will deepen over the central Plains, as a narrow corridor of low-level moisture develops from eastern Oklahoma into eastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. The low is forecast to move through northeast Kansas overnight, with low-level convergence becoming concentrated from the surface low northeastward along a warm front into southern Iowa. After midnight, thunderstorm development will be possible along and north of the front. RAP forecast soundings just to the north of the boundary at 06Z/Wednesday show a steep surface inversion below 800 mb. MUCAPE is forecast to reach the 750 to 1000 J/kg range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates of the 8 to 9 C/km. Effective shear on the north side of the boundary is forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment could be sufficient for an isolated large hail threat, associated with elevated rotating storms, mainly in the 06Z to 12Z timeframe. ..Broyles.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Large-scale pattern has allowed significant offshore flow to develop along the Atlantic/Gulf Coasts as surface ridging settles deep into the Gulf Basin. While a few weak thunderstorms may develop beneath a cold mid-level trough along the Carolina Coast later this afternoon, a dearth of deep convection is expected east of the Rockies during the day1 period. Across the western CONUS, a seasonally strong upper trough will approach the CA Coast this afternoon as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates toward the southern part of the state. Very cold mid-level temperatures will overspread regions north of the jet such that profiles will steepen and weak buoyancy will develop, especially by peak heating. Forecast soundings exhibit a few hundred J/kg SBCAPE across the interior valleys of CA. Given the cold temperatures, stronger updrafts should penetrate levels necessary for lightning discharge. Instability appears inadequate for more than very small hail with this activity. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/17/2025 Read more

MD 0238 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 56... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Areas affected...eastern North Carolina and Virginia Concerning...Tornado Watch 56... Valid 170316Z - 170515Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 56 continues. SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms may still occur over the area, though the probability is currently low. DISCUSSION...Earlier bursts of convection which produced large hail over central NC and rotation over southeast NC have diminished, though areas of showers and thunderstorms persist. Dewpoints are largely in the mid 60s, which is still resulting in MUCAPE of around 1000 J/kg in pockets. As the upper trough and associated cold front continue east, some increase in convection may yet occur due to cooling aloft atop the moist air mass. Deep-layer shear remains strong, and low-level shear with winds veering with height is still conditionally favorable for rotating storms and brief tornado risk. If an uptick in storm strength does not occur prior to 05Z, the watch will likely be allowed to expire. ..Jewell.. 03/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK... LAT...LON 35287966 36107891 36737850 37307825 37757794 37847739 37697677 37327639 36647613 35897620 35177651 34747697 34607756 34647847 34767942 34927978 35287966 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FLO TO 25 NNW SOP TO 20 W RDU TO 25 ESE DAN TO 40 E LYH TO 10 ESE CHO. ..JEWELL..03/17/25 ATTN...WFO...RAH...MHX...AKQ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 56 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-037-049-051-061-063-065-069-077-079-083-085-091-093- 101-103-105-107-117-125-127-131-133-135-147-153-163-165-181-183- 185-191-195-170340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CHATHAM CRAVEN CUMBERLAND DUPLIN DURHAM EDGECOMBE FRANKLIN GRANVILLE GREENE HALIFAX HARNETT HERTFORD HOKE JOHNSTON JONES LEE LENOIR MARTIN MOORE NASH NORTHAMPTON ONSLOW ORANGE PITT RICHMOND SAMPSON SCOTLAND VANCE WAKE WARREN WAYNE WILSON VAC007-025-036-041-049-053-065-075-081-087-111-117-127-135-145- 147-149-175-181-183-570-595-620-670-730-760-170340- VA Read more

WW 56 TORNADO NC VA 162340Z - 170500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 56 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 740 PM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and Eastern North Carolina Southern Virginia * Effective this Sunday night and Monday morning from 740 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move northeast across the watch area this evening, with a risk for a couple tornadoes, damaging gusts, and isolated large hail. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles west northwest of Richmond VA to 20 miles east southeast of Fayetteville NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 23035. ...Bunting Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0737 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Damaging wind and a few tornadoes remain possible this evening across parts of the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast. ...01Z Update... Northern-stream short-wave trough is ejecting north-northeast across ON/upstate NY early this evening. As this feature ejects into Canada, the primary focus for organized deep convection will shift south across the Middle Atlantic/Carolinas, in response to a low-latitude speed max that will translate through the base of the long-wave trough into this portion of the CONUS. A notable frontal surge is occurring across the northeast Gulf Basin, and low-level flow is beginning to veer across GA into western SC. This synoptic front will be the primary demarcation for organized convection/severe potential the rest of tonight. Over the last few hours, there appears to be some propensity for a gradual uptick in convection across the southern Middle Atlantic/coastal SC. This activity should spread northeast within a strongly sheared environment characterized by modest buoyancy and steep mid-level lapse rates. Damaging winds are the main threat, though some tornado risk continues given the strong shear and embedded supercell structures. ..Darrow.. 03/17/2025 Read more

WW 0056 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0056 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0054 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SSU TO 20 SE AOO TO 30 NNW CXY TO 30 NNE IPT. ..MOORE..03/16/25 ATTN...WFO...LWX...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 54 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MDC043-170040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE WASHINGTON PAC041-055-057-099-170040- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN FULTON PERRY VAC015-043-069-139-165-171-187-660-790-820-840-170040- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUGUSTA CLARKE FREDERICK PAGE ROCKINGHAM SHENANDOAH WARREN Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Mar 16 22:04:03 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0452 PM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. Extremely Critical fire weather conditions are likely on D3 - Tuesday across the southern Plains. Another day of Critical fire weather concerns is likely on D6 - Friday again across the Southern Plains. ...D3-Tuesday, Central High Plains, Southern Plains... Across the western Pacific, a trough will begin deepen D3 - Tuesday, with westerly flow aloft overspreading the southern Rockies. As this occurs, strong surface low development is expected by Tuesday afternoon. Models are starting to come into better agreement on the eastern placement of the dryline and resulting dry conditions, which has led to confidence in expanding the 70 percent probabilities eastward into central/eastern Oklahoma and Kansas as well as north-central Texas. Extremely Critical conditions will be possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle, possibly extending into western and central Oklahoma for a couple of hours Tuesday afternoon. Fuels in this region have undergone extreme fire weather conditions in the last few days and will be extremely susceptible to fire spread. Relative humidity reductions to 10-15 percent will be possible amid sustained winds 30+ mph. This will create a very dangerous conditions for fire spread on Tuesday afternoon. The dryline will mix eastward in the afternoon/evening on Tuesday, with relative humidity dropping rapidly amid very strong wind gusts along and ahead of the dryline/cold front along with a shift from southerly to southwest to westerly winds across portions of central Oklahoma and Kansas. This may lead to rapid changes in conditions and fire behavior near any ongoing fires. ...D4-D6 Wednesday/Friday, Southern Plains... Post frontal northwesterly flow will bring potential for Elevated fire concerns across portions of eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle on D4 - Wednesday. Winds will shift to become southeasterly on Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D5/Thursday into D6/Friday. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread southern Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across Kansas/Oklahoma. On D6 - Friday 40 percent probabilities were upgraded to 70 percent across western Texas into the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles to account for development of the next surface low across the central Plains. It is possible Elevated fire concerns continue D7 - Saturday and D8 - Sunday with strong post frontal northwesterly flow regime returning. ..Thornton.. 03/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more