SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191630Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN vicinity into early tonight... A deep (990mb) surface low over northwest MO this morning will continue to shift east into northern IL through late afternoon, and into IN/MI and southern Ontario overnight. Meanwhile, the exit region of a 90-100+ kt 500 mb jet will overspread IL/IN this afternoon into early evening. Cloud cover and elevated convection this morning across IA and northern IL, along with lofted dust moving over the region may inhibit heating to some degree into the afternoon. Furthermore, boundary layer moisture is expected to remain modest, most likely in the 51-54 F range given 15z upstream observations in the low 50s F. If any stronger heating occurs, mixing may further limit dewpoints from climbing into the mid/upper 50s F as suggested by some forecast guidance. Nevertheless, cold temperatures aloft (-17 C on 12z RAOBs from DVN) will support steep midlevel lapse rates and modest destabilization into the early afternoon. A dryline is noted across central MO at 15z. This feature will continue to sweep east into the afternoon and become a focus for stronger thunderstorm development across IL by 18-19z. Vertical shear will be favorable for supercells given elongated hodographs with enlarged, looping low-level hodographs. These vertical wind profiles are already evident in VWP data from DVN and LOT where a west to east oriented surface warm front is roughly aligned across east-central IA/northern IL. Evolution of modest boundary layer moisture will be key for determining the tornado risk this afternoon across IL/IN. If dewpoints can reach 55-56 F, a localized area of enhanced tornado potential may develop. While some risk for tornadoes will still exist with lower dewpoints, the risk would be more muted and likely less intense. Given the conditional risk for a strong tornado or two, will maintain the 10 percent SIG tornado risk. Otherwise, somewhat low-topped supercells will also pose a risk for damaging gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter. Isolated convection may develop southward along the dryline/cold front into western/central KY by late afternoon before convection weakens after sunset. ...TN/MS/AL vicinity this afternoon/evening... Dewpoints have gradually increased into the mid 50s late this morning. Continued warm advection ahead of a wind shift this afternoon should allow dewpoints to reach the upper 50s to low 60s F. While forcing for ascent will be weak compared to further north, it should be sufficient to erode capping in the persistent warm advection regime. Instability will remain modest, generally near/less than 500 J/kg MLCAPE. While vertical shear will be quite strong, this should limit updraft intensity/longevity. A broken band of storms may still pose a risk for a few strong gusts. ..Leitman/Bunting.. 03/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Mar 19 14:35:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0242 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0933 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...parts of northeastern Iowa...northern Illinois...southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 191433Z - 191630Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms approaching the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago metropolitan areas may continue to pose a risk for small to marginally severe hail before weakening by midday into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Observational data indicate some recent intensification of thunderstorm activity in an arcing northeastward advancing band spreading into/across parts of southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois. Based on forecast soundings, this convection is rooted within elevated moisture return and destabilization based near the 700 mb level, beneath an initial surge of cooling further aloft. Most unstable CAPE may be as high as 750+ J/kg along this corridor, with shear within the elevated convective layer strong, which may continue to support sub-severe to marginally severe hail in stronger cells another few hours. Into midday day, as activity spreads towards/into the Greater Milwaukee and Chicago vicinities, the latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this convection will probably tend to weaken as storm inflow trends less unstable. ..Kerr/Leitman.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LOT...MKX...DVN...ARX... LAT...LON 42819067 43178997 42848824 41578784 40938846 41208911 41958954 42819067 Read more

MD 0241 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NE...NORTHWEST IA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 0241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0554 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Parts of western/central KS into central/eastern NE...northwest IA...and extreme southeast SD/south-central MN Concerning...Blizzard Valid 191054Z - 191600Z SUMMARY...Blizzard conditions will gradually spread eastward through the morning. Snow rates of 1-2+ inches per hour are possible, along with widespread 50-60+ mph gusts. DISCUSSION...Blizzard conditions are ongoing this morning from southwest/south-central NE into western KS, to the northwest of a powerful 987 mb cyclone centered over northeast KS. Very strong deep-layer ascent will continue to support heavy precipitation rates through the morning, aided by very favorable low/midlevel frontogenesis, and the presence of elevated buoyancy and regenerative convection along the eastern periphery of heavier precipitation, near the midlevel dry slot. The heaviest precipitation rates will gradually shift eastward through the morning, in conjunction with the movement of the cyclone, while low-level cold advection and strong ascent result in cooling of the column and a changeover to snow in areas that are currently in the mid/upper 30s F. Meanwhile, very strong low-level flow increasing to near/above 70 kt at 1 km AGL (as noted on the KUEX VWP) will continue to support wind gusts in the 50-70 mph range (as already noted through the night across parts of KS/NE), resulting in widespread blowing snow and blizzard conditions. Short-term guidance generally suggests that the heaviest snow rates will become focused from central/northern KS into northeast NE/northwest IA later this morning. Areas within the most intense snow bands may experience rates of 1-2+ inches per hour, along with wind gusts near/above 60 mph, near-zero visibility, and occasional lightning. A rather sharp gradient in snow rates is expected along the eastern periphery of the heavier precipitation, though the very strong wind gusts may result in blizzard conditions even in areas that experience only light to moderate snow. ..Dean.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF... DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38510077 40719967 42119789 43089633 43699472 43879405 43959356 42839368 42219429 40569637 39399748 38399811 38009859 37749935 37659990 37690043 37810075 38510077 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0745 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST CENTRAL INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening from central/northern Illinois to western Indiana. A few tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...IL/IN this afternoon into early tonight... A deep (989 mb) cyclone near the northeast KS/northwest MO border will move northeastward to northern IL by this evening and Lower MI overnight, in conjunction with a deep midlevel trough and 100+ kt midlevel jet streak. Elevated convection is ongoing this morning in a zone of focused ascent with warm advection/frontogenesis across IA, where isolated large hail may occur with MUCAPE around 500 J/kg and steep midlevel lapse rates/cool midlevel temperatures. The warm sector of the cyclone is characterized by a narrow/modest corridor of returning moisture (low-mid 50s boundary-layer dewpoints) that will overspread MO/IL through the afternoon. Surface heating in cloud breaks, continued moisture advection and relatively cool midlevel temperatures will all contribute to warm sector destabilization (MLCAPE 500-750 J/kg) through the afternoon across IL. Surface-based thunderstorm development will become probable by early-mid afternoon in a broken band along and just ahead of a remnant dryline moving from MO into IL, and storms will subsequently move eastward/northeastward into IN by early tonight before weakening gradually. The deeper buoyancy profiles will be on the cyclonic side of the midlevel jet, where 500 mb temperatures will be < -20 C. Forecast wind profiles suggest supercell potential with long hodographs (effective bulk shear vectors >50 kt), and sufficient low-level hodograph curvature/shear for tornado potential. The primary uncertainty centers of the degree of low-level moistening/destabilization, and the current forecast represents a conditional/reasonable worst case scenario. Otherwise, occasional large hail (1-1.5 inches in diameter) will be possible in IL this afternoon/evening, and the threat for damaging gusts (60-70 mph) and a couple of tornadoes will persist into IN through early tonight. ...TN/MS/AL this afternoon/evening... Boundary-layer dewpoints will slowly increase to the upper 50s/lower 60s ahead of the surface wind shift moving across AR/LA this afternoon. Forcing for ascent should be sufficient to remove the cap, allowing some deep convection in a broken band this afternoon/evening. Buoyancy will be relatively weak compared to the vertical shear, so it will be difficult to get sustained severe storms and isolated wind damage will be the most probable threat. ..Thompson/Dean.. 03/19/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Saturday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 5... A mid-level trough will move through the central U.S. on Saturday and Sunday, as moisture advection takes place across the southern Plains, lower Mississippi Valley and Ark-La-Tex. Thunderstorm development will likely take place ahead of the trough on Sunday afternoon and evening, along the northern edge of the moist airmass from the Red River Valley eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A threat for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible within the more organized components of a developing MCS. The MCS is forecast to move southeastward through the lower Mississippi valley during the overnight period. ...Monday/Day 6 to Wednesday/Day 8... On Monday, the trough is forecast to become amplified across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a cold front moves southward through the Gulf Coast states. Isolated severe storms could occur near the central Gulf Coast early in the day, but the majority of the storms are expected to move offshore into the Gulf. On Tuesday and Wednesday, surface high pressure is forecast to settle over the eastern half of the nation. This dry and cool airmass will make conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms over most of the continental U.S. Read more

MD 0239 CONCERNING BLIZZARD FOR NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS INTO NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 0239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1232 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Areas affected...Northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas into Nebraska Concerning...Blizzard Valid 190532Z - 190930Z SUMMARY...The onset of blizzard conditions is occurring across northeast CO; blizzard conditions will spread east and become more widespread through the early morning hours. DISCUSSION...Surface observations and web cams across northeast CO and adjacent areas of KS and NE are beginning to report significant visibility reductions below 1/2 mile as a combination of cold air advection and wet-bulb cooling support rapid cooling and saturation of low-level temperature profiles across the region. This comes as an intense surface low begins to mature to the east across central/western KS with 25-35 mph northerly gradient winds. Downstream across northern KS and southern NE, temperatures remain well above freezing, but similar rapid cooling/saturation is expected over the next few hours as sub-freezing temperatures are advected south and precipitation becomes more widespread and intense within the deformation/frontogenetical zone of the cyclone. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest the potential for organized snow banding across northern KS into southern/central NE between 06-12 UTC with snowfall rates between 1-2 in/hour. Despite the relatively warm temperatures for a winter storm, blowing snow model output suggests that this combination of heavy snowfall rates and strong northerly winds (gusting between 40-60 mph) will support widespread visibility reductions below 1/4 mile with periods of whiteout conditions. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU... CYS... LAT...LON 40259814 39749845 39289877 38999908 38779952 38689982 38570048 38490119 38500186 38590247 38890310 39180356 39700378 40160385 40690367 41010312 41170255 41370177 41440121 41620032 42009861 42069803 42019755 41859718 41539698 41199690 40919713 40719747 40259814 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Friday across parts of the Pacific Northwest, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave mid-level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this feature, large-scale ascent and mid-level moisture may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development across parts of Washington, northern Oregon and northern Idaho. No severe threat is expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO... ...Synopsis... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected again on Thursday for parts of the southern High Plains. Surface high pressure is expected to build into the south-central CONUS through the day Thursday in the wake of the strong surface low currently over the Plains and its attendant cold front. Meanwhile aloft, a relatively low-amplitude upper wave will begin impinging on the northern Rockies, resulting in modest lee troughing from the northern to central High Plains. West/southwesterly downslope winds are expected to develop to the west of the lee trough, resulting in dry/windy conditions from eastern MT and WY southward into NM and southwest TX. Downslope warming/drying will support RH values in the teens across much of the High Plains with the lowest RH (5-15%) expected across eastern NM given antecedent dry conditions. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph appear likely across northeastern NM where fuels remain dry and limited precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours. Weaker winds with southward extent will limit the potential for critical conditions, but winds in the between 15-20 mph will still support areas of elevated fire weather conditions. Further north into the central High Plains, elevated to critical meteorological conditions are likely, but ongoing rain/snow will likely mitigate fuel dryness for the next few days. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather conditions are expected to linger across the southern High Plains into the Rio Grande Valley where fuels remain critically dry. More widespread, but less intense, fire weather concerns are likely across parts of the upper Ohio River Valley. 05 UTC surface observations show an intense cyclone maturing across the central Plains. This feature is expected to lift to the northeast over the next 24 hours with cold front trailing southward into the lower MS River Valley. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected within the post-frontal regime across the southern Plains with more localized fire weather concerns ahead of the low within a dry return flow regime. ...Southern Plains... Widespread northwesterly winds are expected from eastern NM into TX, OK, and western LA this afternoon within the post-frontal regime. Sustained winds are expected to be between 20-25 mph across OK in closer proximity to the surface low and across southern TX where a belt of 30-40 mph flow near the top of the boundary layer is expected to mix to the surface by early afternoon. Cooling temperatures across eastern OK should sufficiently modulate RH reductions to limit the fire weather threat, but progressively drier air with southward extent will support afternoon minimum RH values between 10-25%. A swath of critical fire weather conditions is expected from southeast NM into the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Valley where confidence in sub-20% RH and sustained 20 mph winds is greatest. Elsewhere, elevated conditions are expected with transient critical conditions possible. More transient fire weather conditions are possible further east across AR/LA immediately behind the front; however, recent precipitation over the region precludes additional highlights. ...Upper OH River Valley... As of 05 UTC, southerly winds are already increasing to around 15 mph ahead of the approaching surface low across the OH River Valley. Moisture return ahead of the low is expected to be confined to a narrow swath immediately ahead of the Pacific Front. Limited moisture return over the upper OH River Valley, combined with downslope flow off the northern Appalachians, will promote areas of elevated fire weather conditions. The fire weather threat will be greatest for areas that received relatively limited rainfall over the past 3 days, which is roughly depicted by the current risk area. ..Moore.. 03/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible on Thursday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and northern Rockies. A severe threat is not expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels on Thursday, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, as a fetch of southwest flow strengthens along the East Coast. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will move across the Atlantic Coastal Plains. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints are expected to reach the 50s F across the Mid-Atlantic, where weak destabilization will occur. Forecast soundings near the moist axis Thursday afternoon in central Virginia have MUCAPE peaking around 250 J/kg. As the exit region of the mid-level jet passes by, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the 80 to 90 knot range. Although thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Mid-Atlantic Thursday afternoon, the instability is expected to be too weak for a severe threat. Elsewhere, isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of a shortwave mid-level trough, across parts of the northern Rockies and northern High Plains. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. Thursday and Thursday night. ..Broyles.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1255 AM CDT Wed Mar 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday across parts of central Illinois to western Indiana from mid-afternoon to early evening. Several tornadoes, large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be possible. ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level low will move from northeast Kansas this morning to Lower Michigan by 12Z Thursday. A strong mid-level jet streak along the southeastern periphery of this area of low pressure will translate from northeast Oklahoma to central Illinois. Meanwhile a surface low within the left exit region of this upper-level jet will move from northeast Kansas to north-central Illinois. ...Central Illinois into north-central Illinois and western Indiana... A rapidly changing environment is forecast across Illinois today. Extensive cloudcover is expected across the state for much of the day as low-level moisture streams north within a narrow corridor ahead of the cold front. However, by mid to late afternoon, some clearing is expected which may allow for some brief heating and destabilization across central Illinois. In fact, the HRRR shows what appears to be a dryline by mid afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be very cold (-22C at 500mb and -4C at 700mb) which will allow for rapid destabilization with only slight heating. Once destabilization begins ahead of the cold front/dry line, expect thunderstorm development. The wind profile across central and northern Illinois will support supercells, but the intensity of these supercells will be modulated by the instability. 250-500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely be sufficient for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. However, if greater destabilization occurs, such as shown by the 00Z HRRR/ 03Z RAP, an even more volatile environment would be present. 56-57F dewpoints would support 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE which is very significant in the low-topped environment with an EL below 30kft. HRRR/RAP soundings show STP values around 2-3 with very favorable low-level hodograph shapes. Therefore, in the higher instability scenario, multiple tornadic supercells would be possible with the potential for strong (EF2+) tornadoes. While uncertainties remain regarding dewpoints and the amount of clearing/heating along/ahead of the front, an enhanced risk upgrade seems prudent given the expectation for several supercells capable of all hazards and the conditional potential for a more volatile environment. ...Southern Indiana southward to MS/AL... Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop along the cold front across Indiana at the nose of the mid-level jet streak during the evening as rapid ascent and mid-level cooling erodes inhibition. Forecast sounding show an environment favorable for supercells capable of all severe weather hazards to persist across Indiana before eventually outrunning the instability somewhere near the Ohio border. Mid-level cooling will not be as great farther south across KY/TN and into MS/AL. However, greater low-level moisture (upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints) should compensate with a few scattered supercells possible with a primary threat of large hail and damaging wind gusts during the evening. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However, slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a 8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear. Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday morning. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST KANSAS TO FAR EASTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated, marginally severe hail is possible by late tonight in a corridor from north central Kansas through central Iowa. ...Discussion... 00Z Surface analysis shows a 989mb surface low in west-central Kansas this evening. Ahead of this surface low, a low-level jet is strengthening (now 50 kts below 1km on the KICT VWP). This low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 65 to 70 knots by 06Z which will be crucial for low-level moistening and thunderstorm potential later tonight. The 00Z RAOB from TOP showed a very dry profile. However, slightly better moisture is in place across central Oklahoma with a 8C dewpoint at 850mb at OUN. Forecast guidance continues to indicate that enough of this moisture will advect north into warm frontal zone across northeast Kansas and Iowa for weak to moderate instability by 08-10Z. If sufficient moistening occurs for 1000 J/kg MUCAPE early Wednesday morning, supercells capable of large hail will be possible given 40-45 knots of effective shear. Expanded the marginal slightly east this outlook to account for latest HRRR placement of the strongest storms early Wednesday morning. ..Bentley.. 03/19/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Mar 19 01:00:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 18 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 18 22:29:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Tue Mar 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z An active fire weather pattern will continue across much of the central/southern Plains through the extended period with multiple days of Elevated to Critical fire weather expected. ...D3 - Thursday through D4 - Friday, Southern Plains... Winds will shift to become southeasterly on D3-Thursday, but conditions look to remain very dry and breezy, with slow moisture return late D3/Thursday into D4/Friday. Lee troughing will strengthen, with Critical fire weather conditions possible across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle. Some critical meteorological conditions will extend into portions of southern Colorado and the Oklahoma Panhandle but precipitation D2 - Wednesday is expected across these areas. A 70 percent area was added in across eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle with this outlook. A belt of strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the central Plains again on Friday with surface low development expected across eastern Colorado. This system has trended further north and faster, leading to reduction of some of the D4 - Friday 70 percent probabilities with a shift northward in the 40 percent probabilities. ...D5- Saturday through D8 Tuesday Southern Plains... Weak surface troughing and periods of breezy post frontal northwesterly flow will keep periods of windy/dry conditions possible across the central/southern High Plains each day through the end of the extended. There is low confidence in strength/track of a shortwave tracking across the central/high Plains into the Midwest on D5 - Saturday. Depending on the evolution of this feature, some Critical conditions may occur across the central high Plains again. A small 40 percent area was added on D5 with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 03/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more