MD 2167 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 694...695... FOR CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK AND SOUTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 2167 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...central/northeast OK and southeast KS Concerning...Tornado Watch 694...695... Valid 302219Z - 302345Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 694, 695 continues. SUMMARY...Primary initial threat of severe wind gusts will likely shift downstream of WW 694 in the next couple hours, necessitating an additional WW. Overall tornado threat should increase through the evening, especially across southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. DISCUSSION...Severe wind gusts and marginally severe hail have been the reported hazards thus far, mainly across west-central to north-central OK with the southern portion of the convective swath. Convection has largely been undercut by the composite outflow/cold front, curtailing the overall threat beyond severe wind thus far. The north-central OK part of the band will likely spread east of WW 694 in the next couple hours, yielding a severe gust threat spreading into northeast OK and southeast KS. Area VWPs indicate low-level flow has remained nearly steady-state over the past few hours, but is expected to increase during the next couple hours through late evening. This will enlarge hodographs, in addition to advecting richer low-level moisture from southeast OK and western AR where surface dew points of 66-69 F are common. These processes should yield an increase in QLCS and embedded supercell tornado threats toward 01-03Z. ..Grams/Hart.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN... LAT...LON 37609690 38029620 37859482 37129475 36669489 35819585 35249697 35169773 35569841 36669738 37609690 Read more

WW 0696 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0696 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 696 TORNADO OK 302255Z - 310500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 696 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 555 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon from 555 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of storms over north-central Oklahoma will continue to intensify and spread eastward through the evening, posing a risk for damaging winds gusts and a few tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles northeast of Bartlesville OK to 60 miles south of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...WW 694...WW 695... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0695 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W EMP TO 30 ENE SDA. ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...EAX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 695 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC001-003-005-011-019-021-031-037-043-045-049-059-073-085-087- 091-099-103-107-111-121-125-133-139-177-197-205-207-209- 302340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLEN ANDERSON ATCHISON BOURBON CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE COFFEY CRAWFORD DONIPHAN DOUGLAS ELK FRANKLIN GREENWOOD JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LABETTE LEAVENWORTH LINN LYON MIAMI MONTGOMERY NEOSHO OSAGE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WILSON WOODSON WYANDOTTE MOC003-011-013-021-025-037-047-049-061-063-075-081-087-095-147- 165-177-217-227-302340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 695 TORNADO KS MO 302135Z - 310300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 695 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 435 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Western Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 435 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Fast moving thunderstorms over eastern Kansas will track across the watch area through this evening. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns with these storms. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles south southwest of Chanute KS to 60 miles north northeast of Saint Joseph MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693...WW 694... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Hart Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW CDJ TO 30 ESE LWD TO 25 NE OXV TO 25 S ALO. ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC007-051-123-135-157-179-302340- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE APPANOOSE DAVIS MAHASKA MONROE POWESHIEK WAPELLO MOC001-079-171-197-211-302340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR GRUNDY PUTNAM SCHUYLER SULLIVAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 693 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO 301830Z - 310000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 693 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 130 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southern/Central Iowa Extreme Northeast Kansas Northern Missouri * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 130 PM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A bowing thunderstorm cluster will likely continue to pose a threat for scattered severe/damaging winds potentially up to 70-80 mph as it continues east-northeastward across northern Missouri and southern/central Iowa this afternoon and early evening. Isolated hail and perhaps a tornado may also occur. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Saint Joseph MO to 5 miles northeast of Ottumwa IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22040. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0694 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW CSM TO 40 NNE CSM TO 25 W END TO 30 E AVK TO 25 WSW ICT TO 40 ENE HUT TO 30 WNW EMP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2166 ..THORNTON..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 694 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC015-017-035-173-191-302340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER CHASE COWLEY SEDGWICK SUMNER OKC011-015-017-027-039-047-051-053-071-073-083-087-103-109-119- 149-302340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLAINE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND CUSTER GARFIELD GRADY GRANT KAY KINGFISHER LOGAN MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA Read more

WW 694 TORNADO KS OK 301905Z - 310200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 694 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 205 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of South-Central Kansas Western into Central/North-Central Oklahoma * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 205 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Developing supercells will pose a threat for large to very large hail initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter). Later this afternoon into the evening, the threat for a few tornadoes will increase. A strong tornado or two appears possible, especially early this evening. Scattered severe/damaging winds will also become a concern later this evening as thunderstorms eventually form into a line. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles northeast of Hutchinson KS to 35 miles east of Clinton OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 693... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Upper-level flow will become quasi-zonal by the end of this week. During the weekend, another strong upper-level trough is expected to dig southward along the West Coast. This feature will then slowly progress to the east into the Plains early next week. Upper-level ridging will build into the West Coast in the wake of the trough. At the surface, high pressure will then build into the Great Basin late this weekend into Tuesday. Thereafter, the upper-level pattern becomes less predictable, though model consensus suggests another trough will move into the West by the middle of next week. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic into Northeast... The cold front expected to pass on Friday appears as though it will not produce much rainfall. A dry airmass behind the front will lead to falling RH values during the afternoon. The surface pressure gradient will be undergoing a slow weakening trend through the day and mixing depths will not be overly high to mix down stronger winds aloft. At least locally elevated conditions are possible and trends in wind speeds will have to be monitored as fuels remain quite dry. ...Southern California... Trends in model guidance have shown the track of the next strong upper-level trough to be farther north than previous days. This trend is noted in both the ECMWF and GFS. This would suggest overall less precipitation potential. That said, offshore winds will increase Sunday night into Tuesday morning which will also include some upper-level wind support. Model trends will continue to be monitored, but current fuel data suggest generally unperceptive fuels and there is still some uncertainty in the stability of these latest model trends. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of producing scattered large hail, numerous damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes are expected today into tonight across the middle Missouri Valley and central/southern Plains, including parts of eastern Kansas/Oklahoma into Missouri and vicinity. A strong tornado or two is possible across south-central/southeastern Kansas into central Oklahoma. ...20z Update... The Enhanced Risk was expanded further southward through the Oklahoma City metro with this update. The Slight Risk was also expanded further west and southward. Recent trends in satellite and radar have shown cell development further south and west along the dryline than previously forecast. The environment across central Oklahoma is favorable for maintenance of supercells, with daytime heating yielding MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and shear around 40 kts progged to increase with the increasing low level jet this afternoon/evening. Boundary parallel shear and overtaking of the dryline by the cold front will lead to a transition to more linear structure around sunset. However, deep layer shear profiles will continue to support embedded supercell structures after dark with the potential for tornadoes, some strong, to continue through the evening. Large hail will also be a concern late afternoon/early evening while discrete mode is maintained. Tornado probabilities were adjusted across northeastern Kansas to account for progression of the cold front and earlier convective activity. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Southern/Central Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley... The lead portion of an upper trough centered over the Rockies and Four Corners will eject northeastward over the central Plains today. A related surface low will likewise develop northeastward along a cold front from the southern High Plains to IA by this evening. A dryline extending southward from this low will mix eastward across western OK and west TX through late this afternoon before stalling. Robust low-level warm/moist advection will continue today across the southern/central Plains along and south/east of the cold front and dryline. Generally elevated thunderstorms have developed this morning across parts of central KS, as large-scale ascent preceding the ejecting upper trough has begun to overspread the central Plains. This activity should tend to remain just to the cool side of the front through the early afternoon. But, this convection may pose some threat for severe hail given sufficient MUCAPE with steepening mid-level lapse rates in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. There is also some chance it eventually becomes surface based later this afternoon across northeast KS. Otherwise, continued filtered daytime heating of the moistening warm sector should support around 500-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE by late afternoon from southern IA into eastern KS/western MO, and locally stronger to around 2000 J/kg in north-central OK. Current expectations are for surface-based thunderstorms to initiate by 20-22Z across central/eastern KS and north-central/northwest OK, in close proximity to the surface low and front/dryline intersection. Rather strong (50-80 kt) southwesterly mid-level flow will overlie this region this afternoon/evening, along with enhanced south-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer. Related deep-layer shear around 45-60 kt will easily support supercells and associated threat for scattered hail initially. Isolated very large hail may occur from south-central KS into north-central OK with any sustained supercell given the rather favorable overlap of moderate instability with steepened mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. With time this evening, upscale growth into a QLCS with greater threat for severe/damaging winds is anticipated. This severe/damaging wind threat should continue tonight as the line spreads eastward across IA/MO, before eventually becoming more isolated/diminishing with eastward extent into the mid MS Valley. The tornado potential should also increase late this afternoon and evening, as a southerly low-level jet and related 0-1 km SRH strengthens rapidly through 23-04Z. The potential for sustained supercells in central/eastern KS and north-central OK remains somewhat unclear, but any semi-discrete activity will pose a threat for tornadoes, a couple of which could be strong given the favorable low-level shear and hodograph curvature. Embedded mesovorticies within the QLCS will also be possible. Based on latest guidance and observational trends, severe probabilities have been expanded westward some across KS/OK, especially in the vicinity of the expected front/dryline intersection. The Enhanced Risk has also been expanded slightly eastward in western MO to account for scattered to numerous severe wind gusts with the QLCS this evening. Convective initiation may be delayed until around 00Z or later across central/eastern OK. But, potential for discrete supercells may be a bit better across this region given the dryline as the initiating boundary, and somewhat less large-scale ascent with southward extent away from the cold front. Any convection that can develop and be sustained will likely be supercellular for at least a couple of hours this evening, before upscale growth eventually occurs along the cold front. A threat for large hail and tornadoes will exist with any supercell, before the damaging wind threat increases as the convective mode becomes more linear. ...Southeast Texas... There is some potential that a few stronger/potentially rotating thunderstorms could materialize today across the region within a very moist and confluent low-level flow regime. This would be as low-level lapse rates diurnally steepen coincident with a moderate degree of low-level hodograph length and curvature. Modest-strength winds above 2km AGL should limit the sustainability and intensity for any showers/thunderstorms that may exhibit rotating characteristics, and the overall severe potential should tend to remain limited. Read more

WW 0693 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE FNB TO 35 ENE FNB TO 30 SE DNS. ..MOORE..10/30/24 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 693 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC001-003-007-039-049-051-053-077-099-117-121-123-125-127-135- 153-157-159-171-173-175-179-181-185-302040- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ADAMS APPANOOSE CLARKE DALLAS DAVIS DECATUR GUTHRIE JASPER LUCAS MADISON MAHASKA MARION MARSHALL MONROE POLK POWESHIEK RINGGOLD TAMA TAYLOR UNION WAPELLO WARREN WAYNE KSC043-302040- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DONIPHAN MOC001-003-021-061-063-075-079-081-129-147-171-197-211-227- Read more

MD 2162 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 2162 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0105 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and southeast Nebraska into southern Iowa and northern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 301805Z - 302000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An organizing line of thunderstorms may pose a severe wind threat through late afternoon as convection spreads northeast into northern Missouri and southern Iowa. Trends will be monitored, and watch issuance may be needed. DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, a cluster of elevated thunderstorms across northeast KS/southeast NE has undergone gradual organization with a consolidated outflow boundary becoming evident in regional velocity imagery. Additionally, IR cloud top temperatures have been steadily cooling as the line has become more organized, and measured wind gusts of 59 and 69 mph were recently reported across northeast KS, which point to an overall intensification trend. Gradual destabilization is ongoing downstream from this developing line across northern MO into southern IA as temperatures climb into the 70s with low 60s dewpoints. Persistent southerly flow combined with muted daytime heating should maintain this trend (although overall buoyancy should remain quite limited - around 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Regardless, 40-50 knot deep-layer wind shear vectors are oriented largely orthogonal to the line, which should favor line maintenance and forward propagation along the surface cold front with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds. The limited buoyancy and southeastward progression of the front cast uncertainty into how intense convection may be as it migrates east, but trends are being monitored and watch issuance is possible if a robust/widespread severe threat materializes. ..Moore/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP... LAT...LON 42249224 41849196 41359183 40839195 40529205 40139222 39049612 39009647 39229660 39569651 40419623 40739606 41059580 42769325 42759286 42539247 42249224 Read more

MD 2163 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR WESTERN/NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2163 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Areas affected...Western/northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 301815Z - 301945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...There is an increasing threat for supercells this afternoon across western/north-central Oklahoma and southern Kansas. These storms will have a threat for large hail and a few tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Some type of impulse triggered some elevated thunderstorms across southern Kansas this morning. In the wake of this activity, subsidence has resulted in clearing and significant surface heating across western Oklahoma and southern Kansas. In addition, low-level moisture advection has increased dewpoints to 64-67F ahead of the dryline as far north as Reno and Harvey Counties in Kansas. SPC mesoanalysis currently suggests around 1000 to 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal inhibition. Continued surface heating and mid-level cooling may allow for some additional destabilization later this afternoon. Current visible satellite shows deepening cumulus along the dryline from Harper County, Oklahoma to near Childress, TX. Expect initial strong/severe storm development near the triple point in northwest Oklahoma/southern Kansas where forcing is strongest. Eventually expect additional development southward along the dryline to near I-40 in Oklahoma. These storms along the dryline will have greater potential to remain discrete for a few hours given the more favorable boundary orientation. At this time, the most favored solution is a more linear wind/QLCS tornado threat along the cold front in Kansas with a more discrete hail/strong tornado threat associated with supercells in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas. Based on current trends, a tornado watch will likely be needed soon. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 10/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC... LAT...LON 36549670 35609744 35309849 35279969 35899975 36769972 37569937 38359811 38599710 38119665 36549670 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 10/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0204 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... As the upper trough continues eastward, the attendant surface cyclone and cold front will move through the central US with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation ahead of it. Behind the front, high pressure and a cooler air mass will quickly develop over the Rockies and High Plains. Mid-level flow will slacken as the pattern evolves towards broad zonal flow and weak Pacific troughing. This should reduce the coverage of strong winds and low RH over much of the CONUS Thursday. One exception to this may be across portions of the Southwest. Here, mid-level flow will remain somewhat stronger, but the strongest winds are expected to overlap with only modestly low RH and relatively poor fuels given recent precipitation. Thus, critical fire-weather conditions appear unlikely. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms capable of producing marginal hail are expected to develop Friday night over the southern High Plain region. ...Synopsis... Amplification of the upper flow field across the western and central U.S. is forecast, as mid-level short-wave energy on the western side of a low near Vancouver Island digs south-southeastward across the eastern Pacific toward California. This will result in amplification of cyclonic flow over the West and, in response, increased ridging/anticyclonic flow over the central states. At the surface, high pressure will prevail in the wake of a cold front expected to move eastward across New England through the day, while trailing west-to-east across the Carolinas and Gulf Coast States, and into the southern Plains. Meanwhile over the West, a cold front is forecast to advance across the northwestern states and eventually into the Great Basin, in response to the digging upper system. ...Southern High Plains... Development of scattered/elevated storms is expected overnight across the southern High Plains area, within a zone of low-level warm advection near and north of the remnant surface baroclinic zone. Rather steep lapse rates aloft will contribute to ample CAPE, while moderate southwesterly mid-level flow will allow sufficient cloud-layer shear for a few stronger updrafts. This suggests potential for hail near or in excess of severe levels with these potentially stronger storms. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more

WW 0694 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0694 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS/NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... Locally strong storms -- a couple of which may produce marginally severe gusts -- will be possible Thursday morning and afternoon, from the Midwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana. ...Synopsis... A progressing short-wave trough initially forecast over the Middle Missouri Valley area is expected to move quickly northeastward toward/across the Great Lakes region through the first half of the period, and then into Ontario/Quebec overnight. At the surface, an associated cold front will move eastward across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley areas, while moving more slowly southeastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. By the end of the period, the boundary should extend from the Northeast to the Texas Coast. ...Southern Lower Michigan southwest to northeastern Texas/northern Louisiana... Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing near and ahead of an advancing cold front -- which is initially forecast to lie from the southern Wisconsin vicinity southwestward to central Texas. With the associated upper system forecast to be ejecting quickly northeastward into/across the Upper Great Lakes region, decreasing ascent and weakening flow aloft is expected with time from roughly the Ohio Valley southward. Meanwhile, weak instability north of the Ohio Valley will be an overall limiting factor, despite more favorable kinematics. Overall, it appears that Level 1/MRGL risk remains appropriate, to cover the potential for a few stronger storms/line segments to produce strong/gusty winds that may locally reach severe levels. Risk should be greatest during the morning and afternoon hours, after which decreasing convective intensity and attendant severe potential is expected. ..Goss.. 10/30/2024 Read more