WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E HDO TO 25 NW BAZ TO 10 N AUS TO 35 SE TPL TO 35 NNW CLL TO 40 SSE CRS. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-055-089-091-123-149-157-177-185-187-201-209- 225-285-287-289-291-313-331-339-373-395-407-453-455-471-473-477- 481-491-061940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CRS TO 15 ESE CRS TO 30 W TYR TO 25 NW TYR TO 40 N TYR TO 30 S PRX TO 5 NNW PRX. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC001-063-067-073-159-161-183-203-213-223-315-343-347-365-401- 419-423-449-459-467-499-061940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CAMP CASS CHEROKEE FRANKLIN FREESTONE GREGG HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK SHELBY SMITH TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 232 SEVERE TSTM TX 061450Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose some threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may occur by this afternoon along/near a warm front across east-central TX, where a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles east of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF SOUTH TX... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the southern Great Plains to coastal Louisiana on Wednesday. Large hail should be the main hazard, which appears most likely in parts of south Texas during the late afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Primary mid/upper low near the KS/OK border will drift east and gradually dampen through the period. A minor surface wave may accompany this low with a dryline extending south into south-central TX. A broad MCS on D1 should yield large-scale convective outflow near the upper TX to LA coast at 12Z Wednesday. ...South TX to coastal LA... An extensive swath of convection will likely be ongoing across portions of the northwest to north-central Gulf Coast. Limited real estate may exist for morning severe, but could possibly affect coastal LA where a low-probability wind/tornado threat has been added. Afternoon to early evening thunderstorm redevelopment along and north of the large-scale outflow will be dependent on its spatial placement, as large-scale ascent wanes amid neutral mid-level height change. A few supercells seem most probable where the boundary intersects with the south-central TX dryline. Ample buoyancy to the south of the outflow, along with strong effective shear north of it, should yield a corridor of large hail threat initially. Mid/upper flow tending to orient along the boundary will support some clustering into the evening. This should limit coverage of very large hail potential, with a mixed isolated severe hail/wind threat across the coastal plain. ...Central/eastern OK into north TX... Despite a fairly weak surface reflection and attendant convergence, 12Z CAM guidance is consistent with scattered storms developing southeast of the mid/upper low in OK, and isolated storms into north TX along the dryline. Guidance more broadly varies with degree of destabilization/residual boundary-layer moisture in the wake of extensive convective overturning on D1. Still, with steep mid-level lapse rates accompanying the low and greater boundary-layer heating in its vicinity tomorrow compared to today, a threat for at least isolated severe hail and localized strong gusts is apparent. For now, have upgraded to a level 1/MRGL hail-driven risk. ..Grams.. 05/06/2025 Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0233 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are forecast to remain limited for today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across parts of southwest TX. An upper low across the Southwest will continue eastward into the southern Plains through the day. As this occurs, a westerly downslope flow regime will become established across the southern Rockies with sustained winds generally in the teens. A dry air mass in place across northern Mexico and along the upper Rio Grande will spread east, resulting in afternoon minimum RH reductions in the low teens. Latest ensemble guidance continues to show some potential for elevated fire weather conditions from the upper Rio Grande into the Trans Pecos and Big Bend regions - especially on the leeward side of more prominent terrain features where downslope winds/drying will be enhanced. However, confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains too limited to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of central into east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, should occur. Severe thunderstorms may also develop this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0715 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 231... FOR CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0715 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Central to East-Central Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 231... Valid 061550Z - 061715Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 231 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat will increase late this morning into the early afternoon across parts of central and east-central Texas. DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection has resulted in increasing instability along the warm front in central/east-central Texas with low 70s dewpoints now present across this region. Cloud cover has limited heating thus far, but some breaks in the clouds have become apparent and should allow for heating into the early afternoon. A mature supercell already exists along this frontal zone in Bell County, Texas. Expect this cell to continue east along the front with an increasing tornado threat through the afternoon. Additional development has already started to the southwest with some hints of additional development farther east along the front. By later this afternoon, expect several supercells along and south of the warm front with a primary threat for large hail and tornadoes (some of which could be strong). The primary limiting factor based on 12Z forecast soundings was moist/neutral lapse rates in the low levels. However, at least some heating is already apparent south of the front which could result in low 80s temperatures and more favorable low-level lapse rates. Therefore, concern is increasing for an evolving tornado threat across east-central Texas. ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 30969806 31369711 31399570 31279530 30919512 30159504 29589507 29479653 29549797 29559828 29659858 29849859 30969806 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0232 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE JCT TO 50 NE JCT TO 20 E BWD TO 10 WNW SEP TO 10 SW MWL. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC019-035-093-113-137-139-143-193-217-221-251-265-267-319-325- 333-367-385-411-425-439-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANDERA BOSQUE COMANCHE DALLAS EDWARDS ELLIS ERATH HAMILTON HILL HOOD JOHNSON KERR KIMBLE MASON MEDINA MILLS PARKER REAL SAN SABA SOMERVELL TARRANT THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 230 SEVERE TSTM TX 060825Z - 061500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 230 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central and North-Central Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning from 325 AM until 1000 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...At least isolated severe storms are expected to expand east-northeastward across parts of the Low Rolling Plains toward North-central/central Texas. Large hail will be the primary hazard overnight, with locally damaging winds also possible. Tornado potential should increase into central Texas/I-35 vicinity later this morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles north northwest of San Angelo TX to 55 miles north of Austin TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 229... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-027-031-041-051-053-055-089-091-099-123-145-149-157- 171-177-185-187-201-209-225-259-281-285-287-289-299-309-313-331- 339-395-407-453-455-471-473-477-481-491-061540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BELL BLANCO BRAZOS BURLESON BURNET CALDWELL COLORADO COMAL CORYELL DEWITT FALLS FAYETTE FORT BEND GILLESPIE GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HAYS HOUSTON KENDALL LAMPASAS LAVACA LEE LEON LLANO MCLENNAN MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRAVIS TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0754 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening especially across central into east/southeast Texas into Louisiana. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, can be expected. Severe storms may also occur across parts of the Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley... Strengthening cyclonic southwesterly flow aloft/mid-level jet streak will overspread an increasingly moist boundary layer that will exist along/north of a northward-shifting warm front across central/east Texas into Louisiana. Of primary concern is potential supercell development near the warm front and just ahead of the surface wave, which could materialize relatively early today. Ample deep-layer/low-level shear will support the supercell potential with risks for large to very large hail, damaging winds, as well as tornadoes, including strong tornado potential. This will be in the presence of upwards of 2500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-55 kt effective shear, with low-level SRH maximized in the east/northeastward-transitioning low-level jet axis and in proximity to the warm front. Other more elevated storms are expected north of the warm front, with large hail most common, but some wind potential as well even with slightly elevated storms. A mixed mode of storms including embedded supercells and MCS development/persistence is expected into Louisiana by evening. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States... Storm development and intensification is expected today within a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding the upper low over the upper Ohio River Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates and moderately strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow will influence some potentially organized storms capable of severe hail and damaging winds, particularly across eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey and the Delmarva vicinity near the surface triple point, where the combination of ingredients appear most favorable for severe storms. ...Florida... While the upper ridge will be more of an influence today, it seems that residually cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support at least a few locally severe storms capable of hail and/or localized wind damage this afternoon across parts of the eastern/interior Peninsula. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/06/2025 Read more

MD 0712 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 230... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0611 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...South-central into east-central TX Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230... Valid 061111Z - 061415Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 230 continues. SUMMARY...An increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning. Tornado Watch issuance is likely later this morning, though timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Some increase in convection has recently been noted across parts of the TX Hill Country, in close proximity to a surface warm front that is expected to lift northward through the morning across parts of south-central into east-central TX. Favorable deep-layer shear and low-level SRH (as noted on the KEWX VWP) will result in supercell potential through the morning, especially as the warm front moves northward and rich low-level moisture continues to support moderate to locally strong buoyancy. Timing of additional supercell development and maturation within the warm-advection regime remains somewhat uncertain, as does the potential influence of an ongoing eastward-moving storm cluster near San Angelo. However, as the threat for surface-based supercells increases, a corresponding increase in the tornado threat is expected with time this morning, in addition to potential for large hail and locally damaging winds. A Tornado Watch will likely be needed later this morning, though timing is uncertain. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 30109969 30469938 31789706 31789594 31279547 30499537 30219581 29779648 29509720 29339823 29329926 30109969 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0230 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 230 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 230 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC027-031-049-053-059-081-083-093-095-099-133-143-151-171-193- 209-235-253-281-299-307-319-327-333-353-363-399-411-417-429-431- 441-451-453-491-061040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BLANCO BROWN BURNET CALLAHAN COKE COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO CORYELL EASTLAND ERATH FISHER GILLESPIE HAMILTON HAYS IRION JONES LAMPASAS LLANO MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS SAN SABA SHACKELFORD STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR TOM GREEN TRAVIS WILLIAMSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue May 6 09:00:07 UTC 2025.

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late this week, an elongated upper trough from the Southeast into the Northeast will evolve into a cutoff low centered roughly on the Gulf Coast with stronger cyclonic flow remaining in the Northeast. An upper-level ridge will continue to build in the West and Plains and shift eastward into early next week. With the weak upper low near the Gulf, this will spur repeated days of convection across part of the Southeast and Florida. It is possible low-end severe potential will exist with some of this activity until low/mid-level lapse rates become poor. However, substantive severe threats are not expected. With the ridge building over the cutoff low, it will be slow to move eastward. Model guidance suggests that this feature will reach the East Coast around the middle of next week. At the same time, a strong upper trough is expected to move into the West. Moisture return into the Plains will begin as the trough moves eastward. That said, at least a few days worth of offshore flow in the western Gulf will likely limit the initial quality of that moisture return. The potential for severe weather with the incoming western trough remains uncertain at this point in time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Late this week, an elongated upper trough from the Southeast into the Northeast will evolve into a cutoff low centered roughly on the Gulf Coast with stronger cyclonic flow remaining in the Northeast. An upper-level ridge will continue to build in the West and Plains and shift eastward into early next week. With the weak upper low near the Gulf, this will spur repeated days of convection across part of the Southeast and Florida. It is possible low-end severe potential will exist with some of this activity until low/mid-level lapse rates become poor. However, substantive severe threats are not expected. With the ridge building over the cutoff low, it will be slow to move eastward. Model guidance suggests that this feature will reach the East Coast around the middle of next week. At the same time, a strong upper trough is expected to move into the West. Moisture return into the Plains will begin as the trough moves eastward. That said, at least a few days worth of offshore flow in the western Gulf will likely limit the initial quality of that moisture return. The potential for severe weather with the incoming western trough remains uncertain at this point in time. Read more